Saturday 9-30-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 30

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CINCINNATI (67 - 93) at CHICAGO CUBS (91 - 69) - 4:05 PM
JACKSON STEPHENS (R) vs. JON LESTER (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 67-92 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-28 (-18.8 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
LESTER is 98-40 (+35.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997. (Team's Record)
CINCINNATI is 36-38 (+6.5 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 91-69 (-10.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 903-819 (-157.0 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 421-379 (-83.7 Units) against the money line in home games against division opponents since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 36-35 (-19.9 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 70-55 (-13.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 50-40 (-8.7 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 116-105 (-33.6 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 830-775 (-155.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO CUBS is 11-6 (+1.4 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
12 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+6.7 Units)

JACKSON STEPHENS vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
STEPHENS is 1-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.400.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

JON LESTER vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
LESTER is 4-1 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 4.56 and a WHIP of 1.123.
His team's record is 10-2 (+5.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-2. (+6.9 units)

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SAN DIEGO (70 - 90) at SAN FRANCISCO (63 - 97) - 4:05 PM
JHOULYS CHACIN (R) vs. MATT CAIN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 49-94 (-34.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 86-47 (+30.5 Units) against the money line in home games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.
SAN DIEGO is 70-90 (+3.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN DIEGO is 66-74 (+12.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-25 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 66-84 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 51-63 (+5.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN DIEGO is 83-101 (+12.3 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 27-25 (+13.1 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 36-30 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
CHACIN is 17-14 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 10-6 (+9.6 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season. (Team's Record)
CHACIN is 12-7 (+8.3 Units) against the money line after a loss this season. (Team's Record)
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-97 (-37.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 51-62 (-21.9 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 8-17 (-12.0 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-46 (-18.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-34 (-16.7 Units) against the money line in day games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 45-67 (-27.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 20-41 (-24.1 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 22-41 (-27.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-21 (-12.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 11-6 (+7.7 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

JHOULYS CHACIN vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
CHACIN is 8-7 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.156.
His team's record is 9-10 (-0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 6-11. (-6.4 units)

MATT CAIN vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
CAIN is 8-14 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 3.20 and a WHIP of 1.172.
His team's record is 13-24 (-15.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 15-20. (-7.6 units)

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MILWAUKEE (85 - 75) at ST LOUIS (82 - 78) - 4:15 PM
JUNIOR GUERRA (R) vs. LUKE WEAVER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 10-7 (+4.9 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.4 Units)

JUNIOR GUERRA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
GUERRA is 1-2 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.76 and a WHIP of 1.529.
His team's record is 1-2 (-0.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

LUKE WEAVER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
WEAVER is 2-1 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.083.
His team's record is 2-2 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.1 units)

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PITTSBURGH (73 - 87) at WASHINGTON (97 - 63) - 7:05 PM
JAMESON TAILLON (R) vs. MAX SCHERZER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 73-87 (-12.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 29-50 (-16.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 46-65 (-21.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
PITTSBURGH is 115-137 (-33.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 35-51 (-16.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
PITTSBURGH is 296-546 (-113.7 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 2-14 (-11.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
WASHINGTON is 96-63 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
WASHINGTON is 70-35 (+23.6 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
WASHINGTON is 24-26 (-14.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 24-24 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in home games after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 3-2 (+0.7 Units) against PITTSBURGH this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.1 Units)

JAMESON TAILLON vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
TAILLON is 0-0 when starting against WASHINGTON with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.1 units)

MAX SCHERZER vs. PITTSBURGH since 1997
SCHERZER is 4-2 when starting against PITTSBURGH with an ERA of 2.85 and a WHIP of 0.867.
His team's record is 5-4 (-1.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-3. (+1.4 units)

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NY METS (69 - 91) at PHILADELPHIA (65 - 95) - 7:05 PM
SETH LUGO (R) vs. HENDERSON ALVAREZ (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY METS are 69-91 (-30.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
NY METS are 54-68 (-22.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-4 (+9.8 Units) against the money line in home games in September games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 38-36 (+10.8 Units) against the money line against division opponents this season.
NY METS are 42-32 (+11.1 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY METS are 433-453 (+29.6 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss since 1997.
LUGO is 16-9 (+8.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LUGO is 12-4 (+9.1 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LUGO is 8-2 (+6.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)
PHILADELPHIA is 41-74 (-25.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY METS is 11-6 (+2.1 Units) against PHILADELPHIA this season
11 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+4.7 Units)

SETH LUGO vs. PHILADELPHIA since 1997
LUGO is 0-0 when starting against PHILADELPHIA with an ERA of 6.97 and a WHIP of 1.742.
His team's record is 2-0 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.1 units)

HENDERSON ALVAREZ vs. NY METS since 1997
ALVAREZ is 5-2 when starting against NY METS with an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP of 1.222.
His team's record is 6-3 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.2 units)

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ATLANTA (71 - 89) at MIAMI (76 - 84) - 7:10 PM
LUCAS SIMS (R) vs. ODRISAMER DESPAIGNE (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 13-24 (-10.4 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 this season.
ATLANTA is 12-19 (-10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 63-64 (+0.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
MIAMI is 31-20 (+10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
ATLANTA is 42-39 (+6.4 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
ATLANTA is 71-88 (+22.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 50-58 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 56-64 (+19.8 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 98-83 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
MIAMI is 65-84 (-26.7 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-7 (+2.9 Units) against MIAMI this season
8 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.3 Units, Under=-0.9 Units)

LUCAS SIMS vs. MIAMI since 1997
SIMS is 0-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

ODRISAMER DESPAIGNE vs. ATLANTA since 1997
DESPAIGNE is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 8.58 and a WHIP of 2.861.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.2 units)

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LA DODGERS (102 - 58) at COLORADO (87 - 73) - 8:10 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. GERMAN MARQUEZ (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
COLORADO is 10-7 (+10.1 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
8 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-1.5 Units, Under=-0.1 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. COLORADO since 1997
KERSHAW is 21-7 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 3.16 and a WHIP of 1.134.
His team's record is 27-10 (+12.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 18-19. (-2.3 units)

GERMAN MARQUEZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
MARQUEZ is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 2.250.
His team's record is 1-0 (+2.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.1 units)

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TORONTO (75 - 85) at NY YANKEES (90 - 70) - 1:05 PM
MARCUS STROMAN (R) vs. JAIME GARCIA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 9-8 (+2.4 Units) against NY YANKEES this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

MARCUS STROMAN vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
STROMAN is 6-3 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.12 and a WHIP of 1.139.
His team's record is 8-4 (+3.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-6. (-1.8 units)

JAIME GARCIA vs. TORONTO since 1997
GARCIA is 2-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 4.23 and a WHIP of 1.265.
His team's record is 3-2 (+1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-1. (+3.0 units)

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BALTIMORE (75 - 85) at TAMPA BAY (78 - 82) - 6:10 PM
MIGUEL CASTRO (R) vs. CHRIS ARCHER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 9-8 (-0.3 Units) against BALTIMORE this season
10 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+2.3 Units)

MIGUEL CASTRO vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHRIS ARCHER vs. BALTIMORE since 1997
ARCHER is 4-7 when starting against BALTIMORE with an ERA of 5.30 and a WHIP of 1.454.
His team's record is 6-9 (-5.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-7. (-2.1 units)

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HOUSTON (100 - 60) at BOSTON (92 - 68) - 7:10 PM
LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. DREW POMERANZ (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-2 (+0.5 Units) against BOSTON this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.6 Units)

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. vs. BOSTON since 1997
MCCULLERS JR. is 0-0 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.977.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

DREW POMERANZ vs. HOUSTON since 1997
POMERANZ is 0-2 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.82 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 3-3 (-0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-3. (-0.4 units)

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CHI WHITE SOX (66 - 94) at CLEVELAND (101 - 59) - 7:10 PM
CARSON FULMER (R) vs. COREY KLUBER (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 12-5 (+2.4 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
9 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.9 Units)

CARSON FULMER vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
No recent starts.

COREY KLUBER vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
KLUBER is 9-4 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.27 and a WHIP of 1.129.
His team's record is 11-7 (+2.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-11. (-4.6 units)

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DETROIT (63 - 97) at MINNESOTA (84 - 76) - 7:10 PM
BUCK FARMER (R) vs. AARON SLEGERS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 10-7 (+2.6 Units) against DETROIT this season
12 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+8.8 Units)

BUCK FARMER vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
FARMER is 0-2 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 15.64 and a WHIP of 2.686.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-2. (-2.1 units)

AARON SLEGERS vs. DETROIT since 1997
No recent starts.

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OAKLAND (74 - 86) at TEXAS (77 - 83) - 8:05 PM
DANIEL GOSSETT (R) vs. ANDREW CASHNER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 211-273 (-47.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 365-462 (-98.0 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 28-51 (-16.1 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
OAKLAND is 10-26 (-11.9 Units) against the money line in road games against division opponents this season.
OAKLAND is 40-59 (-12.4 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
OAKLAND is 70-109 (-30.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 172-153 (+24.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 17-5 (+9.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
TEXAS is 31-20 (+12.8 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 80-70 (+15.2 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 128-106 (+26.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 128-115 (+14.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 95-76 (+18.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 146-124 (+41.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
OAKLAND is 16-11 (+8.7 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
OAKLAND is 17-10 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Saturday this season.
OAKLAND is 56-60 (+2.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TEXAS is 40-44 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
TEXAS is 19-25 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 10-7 (+3.3 Units) against TEXAS this season
11 of 17 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.9 Units)

DANIEL GOSSETT vs. TEXAS since 1997
No recent starts.

ANDREW CASHNER vs. OAKLAND since 1997
CASHNER is 0-0 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.91 and a WHIP of 1.273.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

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SEATTLE (77 - 83) at LA ANGELS (79 - 81) - 9:05 PM
ANDREW MOORE (R) vs. RICKY NOLASCO (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 77-83 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SEATTLE is 35-47 (-16.6 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
LA ANGELS are 79-81 (+1.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA ANGELS are 35-24 (+13.5 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
LA ANGELS are 62-29 (+21.2 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 3 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 61-58 (+4.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA ANGELS are 35-13 (+16.3 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 41-26 (+14.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 (+8.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season.
LA ANGELS are 10-16 (-9.4 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
LA ANGELS are 34-44 (-12.6 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
LA ANGELS are 40-44 (-9.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
NOLASCO is 10-22 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 46-61 (-23.4 Units) against the money line in home games in night games since 1997. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 4-14 (-10.5 Units) against the money line after a win this season. (Team's Record)
NOLASCO is 4-11 (-8.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA ANGELS is 11-6 (+6.8 Units) against SEATTLE this season
10 of 16 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.3 Units)

ANDREW MOORE vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
No recent starts.

RICKY NOLASCO vs. SEATTLE since 1997
NOLASCO is 2-5 when starting against SEATTLE with an ERA of 4.71 and a WHIP of 1.238.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-4. (+0.5 units)

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ARIZONA (92 - 68) at KANSAS CITY (79 - 81) - 7:15 PM
TAIJUAN WALKER (R) vs. JAKE JUNIS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 79-81 (+3.4 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 41-39 (+4.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
KANSAS CITY is 83-59 (+23.2 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 89-71 (+14.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 61-59 (+6.1 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
KANSAS CITY is 85-76 (+11.2 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 39-36 (+10.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ARIZONA is 92-68 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ARIZONA is 65-47 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ARIZONA is 68-51 (+10.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ARIZONA is 140-97 (+28.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 283-398 (-106.7 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 (+1.4 Units) against ARIZONA this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

TAIJUAN WALKER vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
WALKER is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.300.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

JAKE JUNIS vs. ARIZONA since 1997
No recent starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Saturday, September 30

Cincinnati @ Chicago Cubs

Game 951-952
September 30, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Stephens) 15.165
Chicago Cubs
(Lester) 16.618
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
13
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-200
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-200); N/A

San Diego @ San Francisco

Game 953-954
September 30, 2017 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Diego
(Chacin) 13.815
San Francisco
(Cain) 12.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-115
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-115); Over

Milwaukee @ St. Louis

Game 955-956
September 30, 2017 @ 4:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Guerra) 12.635
St. Louis
(Weaver) 16.269
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 3 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
St. Louis
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
N/A

Pittsburgh @ Washington

Game 957-958
September 30, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
(Taillon) 13.198
Washington
(Scherzer) 16.637
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
-260
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-260); Under

NY Mets @ Philadelphia

Game 959-960
September 30, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Mets
(Lugo) 13.068
Philadelphia
(Alvarez) 14.530
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
N/A

Atlanta @ Miami

Game 961-962
September 30, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Sims) 14.158
Miami
(Despaigne) 11.965
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Miami
-120
9
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+100); Over

LA Dodgers @ Colorado

Game 963-964
September 30, 2017 @ 8:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 14.844
Colorado
(Marquez) 16.487
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Colorado
by 1 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Colorado
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Colorado
N/A

Toronto @ NY Yankees

Game 965-966
September 30, 2017 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Stroman) 18.542
NY Yankees
(Garcia) 15.453
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
N/A

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay

Game 967-968
September 30, 2017 @ 6:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
(Castro) 15.834
Tampa Bay
(Archer) 14.826
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
N/A

Houston @ Boston

Game 969-970
September 30, 2017 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCllers) 18.682
Boston
(Pmeranz) 16.137
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 2 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
N/A

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland

Game 971-972
September 30, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Fulmer) 15.057
Cleveland
(Kluber) 18.410
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 3 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cleveland
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
N/A

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 973-974
September 30, 2017 @ 7:10 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
(Farmer) 14.073
Minnesota
(Slegers) 17.021
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A

Oakland @ Texas

Game 975-976
September 30, 2017 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
(Gossett) 14.931
Texas
(Cashner) 12.902
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas
-125
10 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(+105); Under

Seattle @ LA Angels

Game 977-978
September 30, 2017 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
(Moore) 15.791
LA Angels
(Nolasco) 14.660
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Angels
-130
9
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+110); Under

Arizona @ Kansas City

Game 979-980
September 30, 2017 @ 7:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Arizona
(Walker) 14.165
Kansas City
(Junis) 15.576
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
-120
9
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(+100); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 15
David Schwab

Week 14 Betting Recap

Last weekend’s betting action in the CFL started with Winnipeg’s 29-9 victory against Ottawa as an 8 ½-point home favorite. In the backend of Friday night’s doubleheader of games, Hamilton stunned British Columbia 24-23 as a heavy 12 ½-point underdog on the road.

In a big East Division clash on Saturday, Toronto upended Montreal 33-19 as a seven-point home favorite to move into first place in the standings. Week 14 came to a close with Calgary grinding out a 15-9 victory on the road against Saskatchewan as a 5 ½-point favorite to extend its straight-up winning streak to nine games.


Saturday, Sept. 30

Toronto Argonauts (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Game Overview

Toronto has a chance to move to .500 on the year this week after winning three of its last five games both SU and ATS. One of those losses came against Hamilton on the road in early September in a tight 24-22 setback as a three-point favorite. The Argonauts showed some solid balance on offense last week throwing and running the ball. Heading into Week 15, Ray is ranked second in passing yards (3,749) and Wilder is sixth in total rushing yards (503).

The Tigers-Cats have won three of their last four games SU and ATS after losing their first eight games of the year. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in their last six outings. While Hamilton has struggled to consistently put points on the board this season as the lowest scoring team in the CFL, credit the recent play of quarterback Jeremiah Masoli for helping to turn things around the past few weeks.

Betting Trends

-- The home team in this East Division rivalry has won the last four meetings both SU and ATS with the total staying UNDER or ending as a PUSH in the last three games. Hamilton has a 7-2 edge in the last nine meetings (SU and ATS).

Winnipeg Blue Bombers (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (7-5 SU, 4-8 ATS)

Game Overview

The Blue Bombers have done a good job at trying to keep pace with Calgary in the West during an impressive 7-1 SU run over their last eight games. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven outings and the total has gone OVER in nine of their 12 games this season behind an offense that is averaging 34.1 points per game. Defensively, Winnipeg has allowed an average of 29.4 PPG.

Edmonton could not have asked for a better week for a bye following a SU five-game losing streak while going 1-4 ATS. The slide started on Aug. 17 after posting a perfect 7-0 SU start with a 33-26 loss to Winnipeg on the road in a game that closed as a PICK. Quarterback Mike Reilly still leads the CFL in passing yards (3,949) and he has tossed 20 touchdown throws, but the loss of wide receiver Weston Dressler has not helped the cause. He is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.

Betting Trends

-- Edmonton still has an SU 8-2 edge in the last 10 meetings while going 7-3 ATS. The total went OVER 57 ½ points in the first meeting this season and it has gone OVER in three of the last five games in this West Division matchup.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Saturday, September 30

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (6 - 7) at HAMILTON (3 - 9) - 9/30/2017, 6:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HAMILTON is 7-2 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
HAMILTON is 7-2 straight up against TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNIPEG (9 - 3) at EDMONTON (7 - 5) - 9/30/2017, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WINNIPEG is 3-2 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
EDMONTON is 4-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 15

Trend Report

Saturday, September 30

6:30 PM
TORONTO vs. HAMILTON
Toronto is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games when playing on the road against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Hamilton's last 23 games at home
Hamilton is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Toronto

9:30 PM
WINNIPEG vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Winnipeg's last 13 games on the road
Winnipeg is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Edmonton
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games
Edmonton is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 15

Toronto (6-7) @ Hamilton (3-9)— Ti-Cats won six of last eight series games; teams split pair this year, with home side winning both games. Argonauts lost last six visits here, by 1-16-30-3-13-2 points. Toronto is 2-0 since its bye, scoring 34-33 points; they’re 1-5 on road this season, 0-1 as a home underdog. Four of their six road games stayed under. Hamilton is 3-1 since its bye, with wins by 1-4-2 points under new coach June Jones. Ti-Cats are 1-5 at home, 1-4-1 as a home dog. Underdog is 5-0-1 in Hamilton’s last six games.

Winnipeg (9-3) @ Edmonton (7-5)— Blue Bombers won seven of their last eight games; they’re 4-2 on road, 2-1 as a road underdog. Over is 8-2 in their last ten games. Edmonton lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); they’re 4-2 at home but lost last two— they’re 1-4 as home favorites. Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Eskimos are 8-2 in last ten series games; they lost 33-26 in first meeting this season at Winnipeg. Bombers lost their last nine visits here; last non-loss here was a 39-39 tie back in 2007.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 15

Saturday, September 30

Toronto @ Hamilton

Game 621-622
September 30, 2017 @ 6:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
114.999
Hamilton
107.061
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 8
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-3); Under

Winnipeg @ Edmonton

Game 623-624
September 30, 2017 @ 9:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Winnipeg
113.162
Edmonton
118.052
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Edmonton
by 5
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Edmonton
by 2 1/2
60
Dunkel Pick:
Edmonton
(-2 1/2); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TOP SU TREND:

-- The Mets are 11-0 since Jun 18, 2017 as a favorite after a loss in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs.

Advertisement
TOP OU TREND:

-- The Pirates are 0-13-1 OU (-2.96 ppg) since Jun 18, 2016 as a dog off a road game in which they lost by 5+ runs.

TOP STARTER TREND:

-- The Mets are 10-0-1 OU (3.82 ppg) since Sep 01, 2016 when Jacob deGrom starts and they lost in his last start against the current opponent.

TOP CHOICE TREND:

-- The Cubs are 10-0 since Aug 19, 2017 at home when their opponents starter has an ERA of higher than 4 on the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

NAVY (-5.5) over Tulsa

Not only have the Midshipmen covered 67% of their road games over the last 15 years, but the team is also 12-6 ATS in conference play the last three years and 5-1 ATS as a road favorite. Today, Navy’s option-attack gets to line up against a Tulsa defense that is allowing an alarming 6.9 yards per rush. Last year, the Golden Hurricane gave up 42 points and 398 yards of offense in a 42-40 loss to Navy as a 3-point dog, but this year they don’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. Lay the road favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo

Ohio State / Rutgers Over 53.5

Ohio State rung up 54 points on their own last week against UNLV as a 40-point favorite. And outside of that Oklahoma game, the Buckeyes are averaging a hearty 47 points per game. Hell, even with that game they are ringing up an average of nearly 40 points per outing. Ohio State's much-ballyhooed defense is also giving up an average of 20 points per game. And even though I don't think that Rutgers' defense will come even close to stopping the Buckeyes, this play is more predicated on the fact that I believe the Scarlet Knights will find a way to put up some points. These teams in the northeast may be weaker than a lot of teams to see in the south or midwest. But they have a hell of a lot of pride. And if Rutgers can play with Washington - a team they covered the number again in the opener - then I know they can line up and play with the Buckeyes. Rutgers isn't going to threaten to win this game. But they will be moderately competitive, and that means scoring some points. I can see this game at 41-20, and I think that it will easily clear this total bar.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris

Winnipeg / Edmonton Over 60

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers hit the road to take on the Edmonton Eskimos at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton, AB, on Saturday night. The Blue Bombers have posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games played in the month of September and they have gone an excellent 12-4 to the over in their last sixteen games following a game where they covered the number. They have also gone up and over the total five of their last seven games following a straight up win and they are a lights out 15-5-2 to the over in their last 22 games versus a West Division rival. The Eskimos have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone over the number in each of their last five Week 15 games going back to the 2012 season and they are 4-1 to the over in their last five games here in 2017. Throw in the fact that the Eskimos also have that same 4-1 record to the over in their last five versus a team from the West while the Blue Bombers are a perfect 9-0 to the over in their last nine versus a team with a winning record and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to get up and down the field in Edmonton on Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+12) over San Diego State

Not only has Northern Illinois covered nine of their last 10 games overall and 10 of their last 13 on the road, but this is a great situational spot for the Huskies. While San Diego State has been reading its press clippings about their surprising undefeated start, the Aztecs also come in off three-straight physical games against Arizona State, Stanford and Air Force, with two of those games coming on the road. Meanwhile, Northern Illinois had last week off and is playing with revenge after dropping a 42-28 decision to the Aztecs last year at home. Take the points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andrew Lange

Mid Tennessee St at Florida Atlantic
Play: Over 58.5

Four games and four very easy "unders" for Middle Tennessee State who for a third straight game except to be without the services of quarterback Brent Stockstill. The Blue Raiders have played a weird schedule with even weirder results. In Week 1, Vanderbilt was able to control tempo and grind out a low scoring 28-6 win. In Week 2, with Stockstill under center, MTSU traveled to Syracuse in what projected to be a high scoring affair (total closed 72). Instead, the Blue Raiders purposely slowed down the pace of the game and came away with a 30-23 win. Week 3 they stood little chance as Stockstill was ruled out and Vanderbilt-esque Minnesota put the clamps down en route to a 34-3 victory. And finally last week, a game in which I felt set up well for a bet on the "over", never had a chance as MTSU and Bowling Green scored only six points combined in a very sloppy second half after 31 points in the first half. The Blue Raiders accumulated 533 yards of total offense but only 24 points thanks to three turnovers. Overall, MTSU has played two "dead nuts" under teams in Vanderbilt and Minnesota, been without the best quarterback in school history, and coughed the ball up nine times for an overall turnover margin of -7. Those aren't the type of attributes that generally lead to games going over the total.

But this week could change. Backup quarterback John Urzua now has two starts under his belt and made big strides last week when he hit on 75% of his passes for 290 yards (9.1 ypa). He still made a few mistakes but should be fine against a questionable Florida Atlantic pass defense. The Owls' season-long numbers look very good thanks to games against Navy and Bethune-Cookman. Last week, Buffalo used two quarterbacks and posted a season-best 254 yards through the air.

For FAU, the transition to Lane Kiffin hasn't been smooth but that was to be expected. The schedule has been tough with a brutal matchup vs. Navy in Week 1 and road trips to Wisconsin and Buffalo. Still, even without an established starter at quarterback, the Owls have managed over 6 yards per play. And pace-wise they are playing at an above average clip (one snap every 21 seconds).

Oddsmakers really adjusted MTSU hard due to its results (0-4 O/U) and Stockstill's absence as this total opened 51. It's since been bet up to 58.5 and could very well climb higher. Given the unique circumstances for both squads with injuries and opponents, I feel this game has the potential to buck that trend and play more offensive friendly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

COLORADO STATE AT HAWAII
PLAY: COLORADO STATE -6.5

Hawaii has taken some sharp action the last coupe days, and that has caused this number to dip down to Colorado State -6.5. I can’t say I agree with the move. The Rams were not as good as the score indicated in a romp over Oregon State, but they also weren’t as bad as the score indicated in the loss to Colorado. CSU got drilled by Alabama as expected but the Rams showed plenty of fight in that skirmish and ended up scoring a couple of fourth quarter TD’s to slip well inside the number.

Hawaii is off a very tough overtime loss at Wyoming. The Rainbow Warriors were the better team on the field but left some points off the board and that ultimately cost them what would have been a nice conference road win.

This game has a good chance to be decided by turnovers. Both starting QB’s, Nick Stevens for CSU and Dru Brown for Hawaii, are vulnerable to interceptions. There’s a likelihood the team that takes batter care of the football will come out on top.

For me, its all about the power ratings. I have Colorado State -12.5 on a neutral field. The Hawaii home field advantage is not nearly what it used to be as the ‘Bows have turned into big time money burners at home, covering only three of their last 17 before the friendlies. CSU has been rewarding its backers on a very regular basis lately and in fact the Rams are on a 7-0 conference spread run.

I’m trusting the numbers here and I also like the fact the road team is of a bye while the hosts could be sharing from the OT loss last weekend. I’d look to side with Colorado State minus the points in this game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wunderdog

Central Michigan @ Boston College
Pick: Central Michigan +8

The Boston College Eagles were at one time one of the most consistent teams in the country. They managed to make their way to a Bowl game 12 straight years, but since then and lately, and since moving to the ACC, things just have not been the same. This will likely be the eighth straight year that BC wins no more than seven games, entering this contest at a wobbly 1-3. The Eagles struggled in their opener vs. Northern Illinois by winning a squeaker 23-20. They have not won since, and the issues that have plagued this team in recent years, the offense, continues to be problematic in 2017, as BC has averaged a woeful 15 ppg. It is tough looking at laying over a TD on a team that scores 15 points per game. Central Michigan averages 26.5 ppg, and won't likely get there, but they have proven they can move the ball enough to stick around. Make the play on Central Michigan.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Clemson (-7) 30 VIRGINIA TECH 16

Virginia Tech is not as good as their 40-10 average score reflects, as the Hokies have actually been just average offensively and not particularly good on defense after factoring in their strength of schedule. Virginia Tech has averaged 6.5 yards per play, which is good until you consider that they’ve faced 4 teams that haven’t been good defensively and that would combine to allow 6.4 yppl to an average offensive team. The Hokies are a terrible running team (4.7 yards per rushing play if you exclude the 97 yards on 9 runs by their backup quarterback – against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team) and as good as quarterback Josh Jackson has been (9.2 yppp against teams that would allow 7.7 yppp to an average QB) it is very unlikely that he’ll have success against a Clemson pass defense that’s allowed just 3.6 yppp to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defense. Jackson simply won’t have the time to sit back and look downfield, which is something he’s had a lot of success doing (15.0 yards per completion). Clemson is averaging 4.3 sacks per game and allowing only 48.5% completions and 10.8 yards per completion and they held Auburn quarterback Jarrett Stidham to 0.2 yards per pass play while sacking him 11 times. Heisman winner Lamar Jackson had a bit more success with 6.3 yppp but Jackson would average 8.5 yppp against an average defensive team. Clemson’s pass defense is the best in the nation and there is no way that the Hokies will be able to run against the Tigers, who have only allowed 3.6 yards per rushing play. Clemson’s defense is just too good for a one-dimensional offense to beat consistently.

Virginia Tech’s defense looks pretty good based on their 10.3 points allowed per game but the 4.8 yppl that the Hokies have allowed have come against teams that would combine to average just 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team so that unit is really just 0.4 yppl better than average, which is not particularly impressive and far from how good they are perceived to be. Clemson’s offense, meanwhile, has averaged 290 rushing yards and 222 pass yards per game at 6.7 yprp and 6.7 yppp (and obviously 6.7 yards per play) while facing teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. The Tigers have faced 3 better than average defensive teams in Auburn, who has an elite defense, and Louisville and Boston College and the offense averaged 6.0 yppl in those 3 games and is projected to average 6.2 yppl in this game with success on the ground (6.0 yprp projected) and through the air (6.7 yppp).

Virginia Tech has faced 3 bad teams and the Hokies were outgained 469 yards at 6.5 yppl to 598 yards at 6.8 yppl by West Virginia – the only better than average team that they’ve faced. The Mountaineers are not nearly as good as Clemson and my math model gives the Tigers a 59% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of the model), which is a very profitable percentage. I’ll take Clemson in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 at -120 odds or better and for 1-Star up to -8 points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oskeim Sports

Iowa vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -4

The misleading final scores from last week’s games provide us with excellent line value on the Spartans. Iowa arrives in town off a heart-breaking 21-19 loss to Penn State that was decided on the final play of the game (Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley connected with Juwan Johnson for the game-winning touchdown as time expired).

Despite losing by just two points, Iowa was actually dominated from the line of scrimmage by the Nittany Lions. Indeed, the Hawkeyes were outgained by over 300 total yards in last week’s deceiving loss.

Meanwhile, Michigan State is home for the fourth consecutive week and is coming off a 38-18 loss to Notre Dame. Despite losing by twenty points, the Spartans actually outgained Notre Dame by 141 total yards but lost due to three turnovers and an uncharacteristically-high number of penalties. Due to last week’s disparate results, the betting public is falling over themselves to grab the points with what they believe is the better team.

However, a cursory review of the game’s respective box scores indicates that Michigan State had the much better performance despite suffering a double-digit loss.

Iowa is 0.6 yards per play better than average offensively (5.5 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 4.9 yards per play) and 0.8 yards per play better than average defensively (5.5 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.3 yards per play).

The Hawkeyes now face a stout Michigan State stop unit that is 20.7 points and 254 total yards per game at 4.3 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yards per play against a mediocre defense.

Iowa has no chance of moving the ball on the ground against a Spartans’ front seven that is 1.5 yards per rush attempt better than average this season. (Iowa is 0.4 yards per rush play better than average offensively). The Hawkeyes will also struggle to throw the ball against a Michigan State secondary that is limiting opposing quarterbacks to 5.1 yards per pass attempt with a 46.2% completion rate.

The Spartans own the nation’s sixth-best pass efficiency defense and the 44th-ranked rushing defense. Not surprisingly, Michigan State has committed the 13th-fewest number of penalties this season (head coach Mark Dantonio is one of the nation’s best).

The Spartans should be able to move the chains on the ground against an Iowa defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per rush attempt this season (Michigan State is averaging 221 rushing yards per game at 5.2 yards per rush attempt).

From a technical standpoint, 2-1 college football home teams off a loss in the 4th game of a four-game season-opening home stand are 5-0-1 ATS as favorites of 3+ points since 1980. Let’s also note that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games, whereas the Hawkeyes are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and 5-12-1 ATS after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

Baylor vs, Kansas State
Play: Kansas St -16.5

Kansas State is playing with added preparation after having a bye-week. This Saturday affair offers the team a Big 12 opener against a struggling Baylor Bears (0-4) squad.

The Wildcats' (2-1) last effort was disappointing performance against the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Bears gave the Oklahoma Sooners all they could handle last Saturday in Waco, Texas.

Baylor quarterback Zach Smith has thrown for seven touchdowns against four interceptions this season and in his six career starts has recorded at least 200 yards passing and two touchdowns. The majority of Smith's passes are thrown in the direction of Denzel Mims, who leads Baylor with 18 catches and 406 yards. Running back John Lovett has yet to exceed 100 yards rushing in any one of the team's four games this season.

Baylor ranks 32nd in passing yards (285.2) per game and 92nd in rushing (147.2). Defensively, the Bears allow over 500 yards per game, ranking them near the bottom in college football efficiency.

Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz leads the Wildcats in passing and rushing. Ertz has thrown for 587 yards and has registered 237 rushing yards in the team's first three games. Head coach Bill Snyder needs to find more production from his core of running backs reducing the wear and tear on his quarterback, Tailback's Alex Barnes (162 rushing yards) and Dalvin Warmack (76) contribute in the running game. Wide out Isaiah Zuber is the lone Wildcats' receiver with double-digit receptions (13 for 129 yards).

The Wildcats enter their conference opener as the top scoring defense in the Big 12 allowing less than 14 points per game.

Baylor performed admirably in last week's loss to the Sooners recording an against the spread cover while losing their fourth straight on the season. The Bears were out-rushed by a 348-62 margin and stayed in the game because of touchdown passes of 72 and 71 yards.

Coach Snyder and his Wildcats are a perfect 11-0 ATS coming off a bye-week and sport a more physical and technically sound defense than Oklahoma. Don't expect Baylor to repeat last week's performance that resulted in an eight-point loss to the Sooners, a game in which the Bears held a third quarter lead.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive Sports

Tulsa +7.5

TULSA is 9-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons.

TULSA is 6-0 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game over the last 3 seasons

TULSA is 10-2 ATS after playing a game at home over the last 3 seasons.

NAVY is 0-6 ATS in road games versus excellent rushing teams averaging >=230 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. Conference Opener for Tulsa who has a Great chance of Winning Outright!!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno

Clemson at Virginia Tech
Play: Over 51

Third time in four weeks that Clemson will be tested by a top 25 team. Having already having disposed of Auburn and Louisville both in straight up and against the spread fashion, the Tigers enter having played a far more rugged schedule than Virginia Tech. The Hokies have piled up gaudy statistics the past three weeks (outscored opponents 72-0 in 2H) but Delaware (FCS), East Carolina and Old Dominion hardly make VT battle tested. Last week, Tech faced an ODU team led by a 17-year-old true-freshman QB making his first career start. The Monarchs also played without star RB Ray Lawry for the third straight week. Certainly Virginia Tech will be fired up and well prepared for this game but the question is are they ready for the major step up in class. Their season opener at neutral site FedEx Field against West Virginia saw the Hokies hang on by a thread to win 31-24.

The key fundamentals in this matchup are pretty obvious can Virginia Tech’s offense find a way to neutralize the Clemson front four which has been dominant this season and will either of the first year QB’s be able to excel versus these stout defenses. Again. Clemson has already been in these situations so they should have an advantage. Kelly Bryant did not have a great game (19-of-29, 181 yards) against the elite Auburn defense but he didn’t turn the ball over and the offense rode the defense to a win. The following week it was Clemson’s defense that faced the nation’s top dual threat QB in Louisville’s Lamar Jackson and they basically shut him down until the game was decided in the fourth quarter. Hokies’ dual threat QB Josh Jackson has been stellar thus far but Clemson has already defeated the best.

Prime time Saturday night start guarantees an extremely raucous home crowd and frenzied atmosphere but those situations don’t seem to faze Clemson anymore. The obstacle for the Tigers here will be their opponent which is the most complete team they’ve played thus far. Virginia Tech features the offensive balance that Auburn didn’t plus the physicality and strong defense that Louisville didn’t. My power ratings made this game Clemson -7.5 so the current line is airtight which leaves us with the 50.5 total. That is where we’ll find our edge in this one. Look for each of these up-tempo explosive offenses to make enough plays and wear the opposing defenses down enough to score a baseline of 48 points. From there, have to expect the defenses to rattle the young QB’s into anywhere from 1-3 costly mistakes that lead to points. Special teams are also very capable of scoring here so with the very important key number of 51 on our side, the look here will be toward the over.