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Trends - Philadelphia at L.A. Chargers
ATS Trends
Philadelphia
Eagles are 10-22-1 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Eagles are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 4.
Eagles are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
L.A. Chargers
Chargers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
Chargers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Chargers are 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games.
Chargers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Chargers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Chargers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Chargers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Chargers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
OU Trends
Philadelphia
Over is 12-2 in Eagles last 14 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 22-6 in Eagles last 28 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 7-2 in Eagles last 9 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 games overall.
Over is 19-7 in Eagles last 26 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 20-8 in Eagles last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Under is 11-5 in Eagles last 16 games following a straight up win.
Under is 11-5 in Eagles last 16 games in Week 4.
Over is 19-9 in Eagles last 28 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
L.A. Chargers
Over is 5-1 in Chargers last 6 games in October.
Under is 8-2 in Chargers last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 11-3-1 in Chargers last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 16-5 in Chargers last 21 games in Week 4.
Under is 6-2-1 in Chargers last 9 games overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 home games.
Under is 6-2 in Chargers last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 3-1-1 in Chargers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 20-7 in Chargers last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2-1 in Chargers last 8 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Chargers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 12-5 in Chargers last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Chargers last 13 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Head to Head
Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
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When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 1, 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Preview: Giants at Buccaneers
Gracenote
Sep 28, 2017
Odell Beckham Jr. and the New York Giants look to get out of the doghouse on Sunday when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. Beckham found himself there with a questionable touchdown celebration last week while the Giants reside in Fido's home after being left with the unenviable task of attempting to become the fourth team since the current playoff format was established in 1990 to rally from an 0-3 start to make the postseason.
Co-owner John Mara publicly said he was unhappy with Beckham's unsportsmanlike conduct, which was one of seven penalties in the fourth quarter of Sunday's 27-24 loss to Philadelphia. "I want him to go out there and play hard. It's part of being smart in all aspects of penalties," Eli Manning said of the flamboyant wideout, who reeled in nine receptions for 79 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles and faces a Buccaneers' defense that is dealing with key injuries. Three Pro Bowl selections - cornerback Brent Grimes (shoulder), linebacker Lavonte David (ankle) and Gerald McCoy (ankle) - and 2016 NFL leading tackler Kwon Alexander (hamstring) are banged up, but Tampa Bay wasn't willing to cite the injuries as a reason to hang its head. "No time to make excuses. We've gotta be men," McCoy said. "... That's what it's going to take to go 16 straight. You're going to be in pain. You've gotta learn to push through it."
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Buccaneers -3. O/U: 44
ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-3): New York's listless offense has scored in only four of 12 quarters and saw a 24-point eruption in the fourth last week go by the boards after rookie Jake Elliott's 61-yard field goal ended the game. Sterling Shepard (team-leading 16 catches, 200 receiving yards) notched his second seven-reception performance of the season last week and had a 77-yard touchdown. Shepard was unable to come away with a short-yardage grab at the goal line and the Giants' 30th-ranked rushing game failed to punch it in from the half-yard line. Orleans Darkwa, who leads the team with a meager 53 rushing yards, is expected to play Sunday despite nursing a back injury while starting running back Paul Perkins is averaging just 2.1 yards per carry.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (1-1): While New York's offense has struggled all season, Tampa Bay found itself in that predicament last week as Jameis Winston threw three interceptions and a lackluster ground game failed to get untracked in a 34-17 loss to Minnesota. Jacquizz Rodgers had just five carries for 15 yards with the Buccaneers playing in catch-up mode, but the diminutive spark plug will be tasked to carry the load with Doug Martin serving the final game of his suspension. Tampa Bay, which rushed for just 26 yards as a team versus the Vikings, looks to exploit a Giants defense that has surrendered an NFL second-worst 153.3 yards on the ground.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Tampa Bay WR DeSean Jackson, who has come up large against the Giants in his career, scored his first touchdown with his new team last week.
2. New York DE Olivier Vernon did not practice on Wednesday and Thursday after exiting last week's game with an ankle injury.
3. Buccaneers WR Mike Evans has recorded back-to-back seven-reception games heading into a key matchup versus Pro Bowl CB Janoris Jenkins.
PREDICTION: Giants 17, Buccaneers 16
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Trends - N.Y. Giants at Tampa Bay
ATS Trends
N.Y. Giants
Giants are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Giants are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games in Week 4.
Giants are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Giants are 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 games in October.
Giants are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Buccaneers are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 home games.
Buccaneers are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
OU Trends
N.Y. Giants
Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-0 in Giants last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games in Week 4.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 9-3 in Giants last 12 games overall.
Under is 8-3 in Giants last 11 road games.
Under is 8-3 in Giants last 11 games following a ATS win.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 games in October.
Under is 9-4 in Giants last 13 vs. NFC.
Tampa Bay
Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 home games.
Under is 5-0-1 in Buccaneers last 6 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Buccaneers last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 16-5 in Buccaneers last 21 games in October.
Under is 6-2-1 in Buccaneers last 9 games overall.
Under is 3-1-1 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-2 in Buccaneers last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 vs. NFC.
Under is 10-4 in Buccaneers last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Head to Head
Giants are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Giants are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
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When: 4:05 PM ET, Sunday, October 1, 2017
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Preview: 49ers at Cardinals
Gracenote
Sep 29, 2017
The San Francisco 49ers attempt to get in the win column for the first time this season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. San Francisco, which won its 2016 opener before losing 13 straight en route to a 2-14 campaign, enters Week 4 as one of five winless teams in the league following a 41-39 setback against the Los Angeles Rams last week.
The offensive output was a major positive for the 49ers, who failed to score a touchdown in their first two contests. Arizona is coming off a 28-17 loss to Dallas in its home opener on Monday night in which Carson Palmer threw for 325 yards and two touchdowns. The oft-injured quarterback was sacked six times but did not throw an interception after getting picked off four times over his first two games. The Cardinals trail in the all-time series 29-22 but have won each of the last four meetings.
TV: 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Cardinals -6.5. O/U: 44.5
ABOUT THE 49ERS (0-3): Carlos Hyde did not let a sore hip deter him last week as he rushed for 84 yards - and two touchdowns - to raise his season total to 253 yards, which ranks third in the league. San Francisco is hoping for a repeat performance from Brian Hoyer, who passed for 332 yards and a pair of TDs while also running for a score against the Rams. Pierre Garcon bounced back from a three-catch, 26-yard effort at Seattle in Week 2 by registering 142 yards on seven receptions versus Los Angeles.
ABOUT THE CARDINALS (1-2): Arizona sorely misses running back David Johnson, who dislocated his wrist in the season opener and is out indefinitely, as it ranks 29th in the league with an average of 59 rushing yards. Coach Bruce Arians will give the start this week to Chris Johnson, who gained a mere 17 yards on 12 carries against the Cowboys, but Andre Ellington could be a factor when all is said and done after rushing five times for 22 yards last week. Larry Fitzgerald (14,633) passed Marvin Harrison for eighth place on the all-time receiving yards list after recording 149 versus Dallas and needs 99 to overtake Steve Smith Sr. for seventh.
EXTRA POINTS
1. San Francisco signed LB Mark Nzeocha from Dallas' practice squad and placed DE Tank Carradine (ankle) on injured reserve.
2. Arizona T D.J. Humphries (knee) and G Mike Iupati (triceps) are expected to play Sunday after missing the last two games.
3. San Francisco LB Elvis Dumervil is one sack shy of 100 for his career.
PREDICTION: Cardinals 27, 49ers 17
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Trends - San Francisco at Arizona
ATS Trends
San Francisco
49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC West.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
49ers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 4.
49ers are 6-13 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
49ers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
49ers are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Arizona
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Cardinals are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 vs. NFC.
Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Cardinals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
OU Trends
San Francisco
Over is 9-2 in 49ers last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 4-1 in 49ers last 5 games in Week 4.
Over is 6-2 in 49ers last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 10-4 in 49ers last 14 games in October.
Over is 5-2 in 49ers last 7 vs. NFC West.
Over is 12-5 in 49ers last 17 road games.
Over is 9-4 in 49ers last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Arizona
Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 vs. NFC.
Under is 11-2 in Cardinals last 13 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 8-2 in Cardinals last 10 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Over is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games on grass.
Over is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 games in Week 4.
Under is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 games in October.
Head to Head
49ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Arizona.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
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When: 4:25 PM ET, Sunday, October 1, 2017
Where: Sports Authority Field, Denver, Colorado
Preview: Raiders at Broncos
Gracenote
Sep 29, 2017
The Oakland Raiders likely will have revenge on their minds when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday for the latest installment in the bitter rivalry. Without star quarterback Derek Carr, the Raiders were demolished 24-6 at Denver in the 2016 season finale, denying them the AFC West title.
Carr is healthy for this matchup but is coming off an abysmal performance against Washington last week in which he completed only 19-of-31 passes for just 118 yards and a touchdown while throwing his first two interceptions of the season. While Oakland dropped a 27-10 decision to the Redskins, Denver also suffered its first loss of the campaign, falling 26-16 at Buffalo in its first road game of 2017. The Broncos hope for better production from C.J. Anderson, who gained only 36 yards on eight carries against the Bills - with 32 coming on one run. Quarterback Trevor Siemian, who has been sacked nine times in the first three games, will have to contend with Oakland defensive end Khalil Mack - the reigning Defensive Player of the Year - while Carr looks to avoid Denver linebacker Von Miller - the league leader in sacks (76.5) since the start of the 2011 season.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Broncos -3. O/U: 46
ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2-1): Mack leads the NFL with 28 sacks since the beginning of the 2015 campaign (0.5 better than Miller), including one in each of his last two games. The 26-year-old has registered seven of his 32 career sacks against Denver, including five Dec. 13, 2015 to tie the franchise single-game record set by Howie Long. Michael Crabtree has been limited in practice this week due to a chest injury suffered in the loss to Washington while fellow wide receiver Amari Cooper (knee) was a full participant on Thursday.
ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2-1): Despite last week's effort, Anderson ranks fifth in the league with 235 rushing yards and is averaging 4.4 per carry. While he has recorded 310 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in his last three games against Oakland, Charles has notched 962 and 11 in 12 career meetings with the Raiders. The former Chiefs running back needs 134 scrimmage yards to become the 11th active player to record 10,000 in his career.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Broncos RB Jamaal Charles gave the best performance of his first season with the team last week, rushing nine times for 56 yards and a touchdown.
2. Oakland CB Gareon Conley (shin) participated in practice on a limited basis Thursday after sitting out the previous day's drills.
3. Denver leads the league in rushing defense (59.7 yards) and is one of only two teams (Minnesota) yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season.
PREDICTION: Broncos 33, Raiders 30
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Trends - Oakland at Denver
ATS Trends
Oakland
Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Raiders are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
Raiders are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Raiders are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 4.
Denver
Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games.
Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 4.
Broncos are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a straight up loss.
Broncos are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games in October.
Broncos are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games following a ATS loss.
Broncos are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC West.
Broncos are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.
OU Trends
Oakland
Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 road games.
Over is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 games in October.
Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. AFC West.
Over is 7-2 in Raiders last 9 games after accumulating less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 19-7-1 in Raiders last 27 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Raiders last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 5-2-1 in Raiders last 8 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 games on grass.
Over is 5-2 in Raiders last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 16-7 in Raiders last 23 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Denver
Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 6-1 in Broncos last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. AFC West.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 games in October.
Over is 46-22-3 in Broncos last 71 games following a straight up loss.
Head to Head
Favorite is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Road team is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings.
Raiders are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver.
Raiders are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
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When: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, October 1, 2017
Where: CenturyLink Field, Seattle, Washington
Preview: Colts at Seahawks
Gracenote
Sep 28, 2017
Indianapolis Colts coach Chuck Pagano has the music revved up on the practice field this week, but it has nothing to do with celebrating the team's first victory. The Colts will be heading into one of the league's toughest environments at raucous CenturyLink Field when they pay a visit to the Seattle Seahawks in prime time on Sunday night.
Pagano has no illusions as to what awaits his team, which is coming off a 31-28 victory over Cleveland behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who was acquired from New England at the beginning of the month. "We've got a really young football team, and we will bring a bunch of guys that have never been in an environment like this and play an opponent like this," Pagano acknowledged. The Seahawks have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, struggling on both sides of the ball in their 1-2 start. Seattle's offense finally came to life after two pedestrian efforts to open the season but the defense was bulldozed in last week's 33-27 loss at Tennessee.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Seahawks -13. O/U: 41.5
ABOUT THE COLTS (1-2): With Andrew Luck still not able to practice, Brissett was handed the reins after Scott Tolzein flopped in the first half of a 46-9 drubbing to the Rams in the season opener. He became the first quarterback in franchise history to rush for two touchdowns, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards as the Colts put up 28 first-half points last week. T.Y. Hilton, who led the league in receiving yards last week, had seven receptions for 153 yards and a touchdown, but will face tougher sledding against Seattle star cornerback Richard Sherman. Indianapolis' defense is allowing 30 points per game and has been gouged for 283.7 yards through the air.
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (1-2): Seattle's defense had long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher, but it has allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray and the Titans. The offensive managed a combined 21 points in the first two weeks but finally showed signs of life at quarterback Russell Wilson threw for 373 yards and fourth touchdowns in a belated comeback attempt last week. One potential issue for this week: top wideout Doug Baldwin suffered a groin strain during Sunday's 10-catch, 105-yard game and didn't practice Wednesday. Rookie Chris Carson leads the ground game but third-down back C.J. Prosise is out for Sunday.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Wilson has passes for 1,312 yards with 12 touchdowns and zero interceptions in his last four games versus AFC opponents.
2. Hilton had five catches for 140 yards and a pair of TDs in his last matchup against Seattle.
3. Baldwin has 22 touchdown receptions since the start of the 2015 season, which ranks third in the NFL.
PREDICTION: Seahawks 34, Colts 13
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Trends - Indianapolis at Seattle
ATS Trends
Indianapolis
Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Colts are 26-8 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Colts are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games in Week 4.
Colts are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win.
Colts are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Seattle
Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Seahawks are 22-6-2 ATS in their last 30 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Seahawks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
Seahawks are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Seahawks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
OU Trends
Indianapolis
Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in October.
Under is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 7-2 in Colts last 9 games in Week 4.
Over is 24-9 in Colts last 33 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Colts last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Colts last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Seattle
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Seahawks last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 11-5 in Seahawks last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.
Head to Head
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
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NFL opening line report: Steelers take early money as road faves in Week 4
Patrick Everson
"The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too."
Week 3 of the NFL season was a huge one for the underdogs, who had gone 11-4 ATS heading into the Monday nighter, including seven outright winners. Will the pups keep it up in Week 4? We check in on the opening lines of four matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+2)
These two teams are coming off stunning losses in Week 3, heading into this clash of NFC North rivals at 1 p.m. ET Sunday. Pittsburgh, among the favorites to challenge New England for the AFC title, was on the road for the second time in three weeks and had another substandard showing against a subpar outfit. The Steelers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) lost to Chicago 23-17 in overtime as a 7-point favorite.
It was arguably much worse for Baltimore, especially since the flight home was far longer. The Ravens (2-1 SU and ATS) went to Jacksonville’s second home – London – as a 3-point favorite and left on the very short end of a 44-7 trampling.
“The public doesn’t want to bet on Baltimore. The offense is mundane, and the squares don’t like to bet on good defenses,” Cooley said. “At some point, we’ll probably see some value players get behind a Ravens team that was absolutely embarrassed. The public will be all over Pittsburgh coming off its loss, and the early smart money has been too.”
Indeed, the number bumped to Steelers -2.5 Sunday night.
Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8)
New England has played two games at home this season and is fortunate to have split those contests. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got all they could handle from Houston on Sunday, needing a last-minute Tom Brady-to-Brandin Cooks 25-yard touchdown pass to post a 36-33 win as a heavy 13.5-point home chalk.
Carolina lost tight end Greg Olsen to a broken foot in Week 2, and the hits kept coming in Week 3 as Kelvin Benjamin left in the first half with a knee injury. Benjamin’s injury is not thought to be serious, but the Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got drubbed by New Orleans 34-13 as a 5-point home fave.
“We were certainly going to be north of a touchdown, and this one could shoot up sooner rather than later,” Cooley said of the line for Panthers-Pats. “It will be interesting to see if the Panthers can get out of their offensive funk.”
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (no line)
Both these AFC West rivals were road favorites in Week 3 and ended up on the short side, on the scoreboard and for bettors. Oakland (2-1 SU and ATS) had its roll slowed at Washington in a 27-20 loss as a 3.5-point favorite, while Denver (2-1 SU and ATS) – coming off an impressive home win over Dallas – looked unimpressive in a 26-16 loss at Buffalo laying 3.5 points.
Since Oakland was in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu held off on setting a line, though Cooley had an opinion.
“Look for the Broncos to be short chalk at home,” he said. “Denver certainly has a distinct advantage at Mile High, but our ratings have the Raiders a few spots higher in the pecking order.”
Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Kansas City is looking a lot like the team that went 12-4 SU in the regular season last year. For the second time in three weeks, the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) won and cashed on the road, this time besting the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10 as a 3-point chalk.
Washington (2-1 SU and ATS) also looked plenty sharp in Week 3, knocking off Oakland 27-10 as a 3.5-point home underdog in the Sunday night contest.
“Again, we’ll make sure nothing significant occurs regarding injuries with Washington, but Kansas City will be a healthy favorite regardless,” Cooley said. “The Chiefs look to be one of the best teams in the league early in this season, and bettors are taking notice. We’ll open K.C. as 6- to 7-point chalk.”
Indeed, when the line opened for this Monday night contest it hit the board with the Chiefs installed as 7-point home favorites.
-
Wiseguys are advising that these Week 4 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson
Game to bet now
New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)
Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division.
The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods.
An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.
Game to wait on
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)
Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5 to 3.5-point range. This one is no different.
Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett.
Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears.
Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.
Total to watch
Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)
Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league.
The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.
-
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 4
Sunday, October 1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NEW ORLEANS (1 - 2) vs. MIAMI (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 9:30 AM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (2 - 1) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 109-78 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA RAMS (2 - 1) at DALLAS (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 53-76 ATS (-30.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 176-226 ATS (-72.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 85-114 ATS (-40.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 126-178 ATS (-69.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 18-36 ATS (-21.6 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DETROIT (2 - 1) at MINNESOTA (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 2-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TENNESSEE (2 - 1) at HOUSTON (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) at NY JETS (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (0 - 3) at CLEVELAND (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 4-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (3 - 0) - 10/1/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY GIANTS (0 - 3) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at LA CHARGERS (0 - 3) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAN FRANCISCO (0 - 3) at ARIZONA (1 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 4-0 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OAKLAND (2 - 1) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 55-36 ATS (+15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 2-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) at SEATTLE (1 - 2) - 10/1/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 32-60 ATS (-34.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
-
NFL
Week 4
Trend Report
Sunday, October 1
10:30 AM
NEW ORLEANS vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Miami is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
2:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Houston is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games
2:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
Pittsburgh is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
2:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. NY JETS
Jacksonville is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games
NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
2:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-4-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
Detroit is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games at home
Minnesota is 16-6 SU in its last 22 games at home
2:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. ATLANTA
Buffalo is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Buffalo's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
2:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. DALLAS
Los Angeles is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Los Angeles is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games
2:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CLEVELAND
Cincinnati is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
2:00 PM
CAROLINA vs. NEW ENGLAND
Carolina is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
5:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. TAMPA BAY
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games when playing NY Giants
5:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. LOS ANGELES
Philadelphia is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Los Angeles
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Los Angeles is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
5:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games when playing Arizona
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games
5:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. DENVER
Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
9:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
-
NFL
Dunkel
Week 4
Sunday, October 1
New Orleans @ Miami
Game 251-252
October 1, 2017 @ 9:30 am
Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.247
Miami
123.642
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 13 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 2 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-2 1/2); Over
Carolina @ New England
Game 253-254
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
131.642
New England
139.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 7 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 9
49
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(+9); Under
LA Rams @ Dallas
Game 255-256
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
127.553
Dallas
130.534
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 3
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(+6 1/2); Under
Detroit @ Minnesota
Game 257-258
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
134.533
Minnesota
137.878
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 3 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
N/A
Tennessee @ Houston
Game 259-260
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
133.535
Houston
133.432
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
Even
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 2 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+2 1/2); Under
Jacksonville @ NY Jets
Game 261-262
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
133.897
NY Jets
132.353
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 3 1/2
40
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+3 1/2); Under
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Game 263-264
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
128.429
Cleveland
127.395
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 1
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 3
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Under
Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Game 265-266
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
133.551
Baltimore
127.661
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 6
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
42
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
(-3); Under
Buffalo @ Atlanta
Game 267-268
October 1, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.398
Atlanta
145.490
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 13
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 8
48 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-8); Under
NY Giants @ Tampa Bay
Game 269-270
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
133.365
Tampa Bay
128.481
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
by 5
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 3
44
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3); Over
Philadelphia @ LA Chargers
Game 271-272
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
135.510
LA Chargers
130.567
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(+2 1/2); Over
San Francisco @ Arizona
Game 273-274
October 1, 2017 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
120.689
Arizona
132.248
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 11 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 6 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-6 1/2); Under
Oakland @ Denver
Game 275-276
October 1, 2017 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Oakland
129.483
Denver
136.684
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Denver
by 7
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Denver
by 2 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(-2 1/2); Under
Indianapolis @ Seattle
Game 277-278
October 1, 2017 @ 8:30 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Indianapolis
123.468
Seattle
139.026
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 15 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 13
41
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-13); Over
-
NFL
Week 4
Sunday's games
Saints (1-2) vs Dolphins (1-1) (@ London)— Horrible travel schedule for Dolphins, who split a couple road games to open season, now head overseas after scoring 19-6 points (2 TD’s on 21 drives). Miami scored only 15 points in four red zone drives this year. Miami didn’t score LW until last play of game, then they missed PAT. Saints are on road for 3rd time in four weeks; they haven’t turned ball over yet (+3), but did allow 10+ yards per pass attempt in their two losses- they held Panthers to 4.2 in their win LW. Miami is 6-25 on 3rd down; they averaged 6.3/4.1 yds/pass attempt. NFC South teams are 8-15-1 in last 24 games as a favorite away from home.
Panthers (2-1) @ Patriots (2-1)— Carolina has only 3 TD’s on 28 drives this year, averaging 6.8/4.7/4.2 yds/pass attempt in their three games. Newton was sacked 10 times in last couple games; they’ve scored only 32 points in 8 red zone drives. Under Rivera, Panthers are 19-9-1 vs spread as a road underdog. Patriots scored 27-36-36 points so far (12 TD’s on 35 drives); they’re 39-24-3 in last 66 home games, but are 0-2 this year. NE is 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games vs NFC opponents. NE defense allowed 42-20-33 points in first three games, a red flag. Teams split six series games; Patriots are 1-2 here, with only win in 2001, Brady’s first year as starter. Since 2010, over is 38-20 in Patriot home games.
Rams (2-1) @ Cowboys (2-1)—Short week for Dallas after their Monday night win in Arizona; Cowboys are 0-7 SU/ATS after last seven MNF games, with four of those at home- their last post-Monday win was in ’08. Rams played last Thursday; they’ve got edge in rest/prep time. LA scored 107 points in first three games (10 TD’s, 7 FGAs on 30 drives); they’ve averaged 10.0/8.6/10.4 yards/pass attempt, but are stepping up in class here. Cowboys allowed 4.8/5.9/5.2 ypa in first three games; they’re 5-2 in last seven games as a home favorite. Dallas won last three series games, by 27-34-3 points; Rams lost last three visits here- their last win in Dallas was in ’05. Last 4+ years. LA is 10-14-1 vs spread as a road underdog; all three of their games this year went over. NFC West teams are just 1-7 vs spread outside the division this season.
Lions (2-1) @ Vikings (2-1)— Minnesota backup QB Keenum put up big numbers (25-33/369) in Vikings’ win over Tampa LW; reality is there isn’t much difference between he and Bradford- as a Ram fan, I can attest to that. Minnesota is 2-0 at home, scoring 29-34 points (7 TD’s on 17 drives). Lions lost tough game at home to Falcons LW, coming up a yard short; Detroit is 11-14 vs spread on road under Caldwell; they won only road game this year, vs Giants on a Monday night. Lions are +6 in turnovers this year; they’re only NFL team this year to lose a games when they were +2 or better in turnovers. Detroit is 8-5 in last 13 series games; they won two of last three visits to Twin Cities. Vikings averaged 10.3/11.2 ypa in their wins, 3.7 in their loss.
Titans (2-1) @ Texans (1-2)—Houston is 8-2 in last ten series games; Titans lost last five visits here, by 24-6-24-14-7 points. Rookie QB Watson put up 33 points in Foxboro LW, averaging 8.3 ypa, converting 8-14 on 3rd down, but Texans have scored only 23 points on six red zone drives, which isn’t good. Houston lost field position in all three games so far, by 17-7-5 points. Tennessee scored 37-33 points in winning their last two games (7 TD’s on 24 drives); they won 37-16 in only road game, at Jacksonville. Houston is 2-4 as a home underdog under O’Brien; since ’09, they’re 4-10 as home dogs. Last 2+ years, Tennessee is 3-9 vs spread coming off a win, 1-0 this year. Over is 12-6 in Titans’ last 18 road games.
Jaguars (2-1) @ Jets (1-2)— Coughlin returns to Swamp Stadium as GM of Jaguars, who won 44-7 in England LW but didn’t take the usual bye after going overseas- this is first time they’ve done that. Field position has been a key in Jaguar games; winningn team has had 14+-yard edge in FP in all three of their games. Jags ran ball for 155-166 yards in their wins, 99 in their loss- they’re only 12-37 on 3rd down- they ask Bortles to manage the game and not make mistakes. Gang Green allowed 190-180 yards in first two games, then held Miami to 30 in LW’s upset win. Under Bowles, New York is 10-7 vs spread at home. Jets won last three series games, by ’09. 29-7-5 points; Jags’ last win was here in 2009.
Bengals (0-3) @ Browns (1-2)— Winless Bengals are road favorite vs Cleveland team they’ve beaten five times in row, winning last two visits to Lake Erie, by 37-3/23-10 scores. Cincy lost last two games by total of 7 points; they scored TD’s on both red zone drives LW, after going 0-6 (3 FG’s) on six RZ drives in first two games. Since 2013, Bengals are 6-8 as road favorites. Under is 17-8 in their last 25 road games. Cleveland was -6 in turnovers the last two weeks, both on road; rookie QB’s usually struggle on road. Browns have 17 plays of 20+ yards, which is encouraging, they’re 3-10-1 vs spread in last 14 games as a home underdog, 1-0 this year- they lost 21-18 to Steelers in only home game so far.
Steelers (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)— Ravens were a complete no-show against the Jaguars over the pond, now come home to face the rival Steelers, who lost in OT in Chicago LW. Baltimore won four of last five series games; Steelers lost last four visits to Charm City, by 2-20-3-7 points. Ravens were +7 in TO’s in their two wins, -3 in Jaguar loss; they’re just 7-22 on 3rd down in last two games. Baltimore is 7-3 vs spread in its last 10 home games; under is 16-9 in their last 25 home tilts. Steelers ran ball for only 207 yards in their first 3 games (69 ypg); they’re 12-37 on 3rd down- Chicago ran ball for 220 yards against them LW. Under is 19-7 in Pitt’s last 26 road games. Baltimore has only four plays of 20+ yards, 2nd-least in league- only Bucs have fewer and they’ve played one less game.
Bills (2-1) @ Falcons (3-0)—Atlanta hung on at goal line to win at Detroit LW, move to 3-0; they scored 8 TD’s on 28 drives, putting up 34-30 points in two games on carpet, where their speed is a bigger edge than on grass. Falcons are just 4-10 vs spread as a home favorite under Quinn, 1-0 this year- their last nine home games went over. Buffalo allowed only 12.3 pts/game in their 2-1 start, giving up 2 TD’s on 31 drives. Opponents averaged 4.4/4.7/5.9 ypa vs Bills this year; how will Ryan’s pass attack do here? Atlanta won last four series games by average score of 31-20; Bills are 1-4 in Atlanta, with only win in their first visit, in 1973. McDermott was Carolina’s defensive coordinator the last 6 years; Panthers were 5-7 vs Atlanta during that time. Falcons hung 48-33 points on his defense LY.
Giants (0-3) @ Buccaneers (1-1)— Giants are 0-3, scoring 4 TD’s on 30 drives, 30 points on 8 red zone drives- they did have three TD’s in 4th quarter at Philly LW, we’ll see if that carries over to this week- they’ve run ball 47 times for 145 yards in 3 games. No bueno. Tampa Bay has 4 TD’s on 19 drives, but 3 of the 4 drives were 46 or less yards, set up by defense/special teams. Case Keenum riddled Bucs’ defense for 11.7 ypa LW, not a good sign. Big Blue is 4-4-2 vs spread on road under McAdoo (under 8-2). Bucs are 3-8 in last 11 games as a home favorite; under is 5-3-1 in their home games under Koetter. Giants won last five series games, four by 10+ points; they won last three visits here. Bucs’ last series win was in 2003.
Eagles (2-1) @ Chargers (0-3)— Philly survived giving up 24 4th quarter points LW in 27-24 win over Giants; they allowed 7.3/7.8 ypa to Smith/Manning last two weeks, face another quality QB here in Rivers, who tossed three INT’s in 24-10 home loss to KC LW. Eagles are 2-5 as a road underdog under Pederson- losing RB Sproles LW hurts offense. Chargers are playing n their new home for 3rd week in row; they’re 10-33 on 3rd down, allowed 146.7 rushing ypg, but lost first two games because their rookie kicker missed FG’s in last minute. Bolts are 7-4 in series, 5-1 at home; Eagles’ only series win in San Diego was their first meeting, in 1974. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 Philly road games. AFC West teams are 5-3 vs spread outside the division.
49ers (0-3) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Arizona on short week after Monday night loss to Dallas; 49ers played on Thursday, so edge in rest/prep time. Cardinals won last four series games, winning 47-7/23-20 in last two meetings played here. 49ers lost last two games by total of 5 points, losing 12-9 at Seattle in only road game- they had five TD’s last game, after not having any in first two games. Niners are 7-12 vs spread in last 19 games as a road underdog. Over is 12-5 in their last 17 road games. Arizona is 6-10 as home favorite last 2+ years; under is 15-9-1 in their last 25 home games- they’re 5-10 vs spread in last 15 NFC West home tilts. In last two games, Cardinals have scored only 16 points on seven red zone drives.
Raiders (2-1) @ Broncos (2-1)— Broncos are 9-2 in last 11 series games; Raiders lost four of last five visits here, losing by 31-16-33-18 points- they won in Denver two years ago. Oakland was really bad LW in Washington, outgained 472-128; they scored 71 points in first two games. Raiders are 11-7 as a road underdog under Del Rio; they’re 12-7 vs spread coming off a loss- this is their 3rd road game in four weeks. Under is 9-8-1 in their last 18 road games. Broncos scored 66 points in winning first two home game, then lost 26-16 LW in Buffalo; Denver is 23-44 on 3rd down this year. Last 2+ years, Broncos are 4-7-1 as a home favorite; they’re 13-7-1 vs spread in games following their last 21 losses.
Colts (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)—Seattle’s offense is struggling, scoring one TD in first two games before scoring 27 in 6-point loss at Tennessee LW. Scoring 36 points on nine red zone drives isn’t ideal. Spread is lower than you’d think; overreaction to Colts’ win over Cleveland LW? Brissett is making his 4th NFL start; this is his first road start, in hostile environment where Seahawks are 26-16 vs spread as a home favorite under Carroll. Last three years, Seattle is 8-3 vs spread when laying double digits. Colts are 16-35 on 3rd down last two games; their last two games were both decided by a FG. Indy is 7-4 vs Seahawks; this is their first visit to Seattle since 2005. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread out of its division; NFC West teams are 1-7, 1-3 when favored.
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
Monty Andrews
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (+3.5, 39.5)
Jaguars' red-zone success vs. Jets' leaky downfield D
Two teams that outscored their opponents by a combined 51 points in Week 3 will lock horns this weekend as the New York Jets entertain Jacksonville. The Jaguars were the surprise of the weekend, rolling to a 44-7 throttling of the Baltimore Ravens in London, while the Jets stunned the football world by cruising to a 20-6 triumph over Miami. Jacksonville has the edge in this one according to oddsmakers, due at least in part to a sensational red-zone record through the first three weeks of the season.
Jacksonville came into the season facing serious question marks on offense, but quarterback Blake Bortles and rookie running back Leonard Fournette have put those concerns to rest - at least for now. The Jaguars come into Week 4 having scored touchdowns on two-thirds of their drives into the red-zone - putting them in the top third league-wide. Bortles already has six TD passes on the young season, while Fournette has three rushing scores to kick off his NFL career.
The Jets dominated play from start to finish against the Dolphins last week, surrendering only a last-second touchdown catch from DeVante Parker. But things haven't been so rosy overall, with New York surrendering touchdowns on 77.8 percent of opponent visits to the red zone. It's among the worst marks on the season, and represents a significant step back after the Jets allowed red-zone TDs on 56.9 percent of opponent red-zone trips in 2016.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (+3, 43)
Steelers' second-half stinginess vs. Ravens' reeling offense
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are both coming off stunning losses - and are looking for answers as they face off Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium. The Steelers lost a 23-17 overtime stunner to the Chicago Bears, while the Ravens were on the wrong end of a Jacksonville scoring spree overseas. This one is expected to be close - and that favors the Steelers, who have been one of the toughest teams to score against in the second half of games.
The Steelers were burned by a Jordan Howard rushing score in OT, but prior to that they had dominated teams after the half. Pittsburgh has allowed a paltry 17 points in the third and fourth quarters of their first three games of 2017, with the 5.7 second-half points per game against representing the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The Steelers have been even more impressive over the past two contests, allowing a combined six points in the third and fourth quarters against Minnesota and Chicago.
That bodes poorly for a Baltimore offense that has come out of the halftime break a slumbering mess to start the year. The Ravens have scored a combined 13 points in the second half of their first three games, with seven of those coming on a meaningless touchdown in the fourth quarter of the Jacksonville loss. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been the biggest culprit, amassing just 84 passing yards in the second half of two-plus games; he was pulled in London in favor of Ryan Mallett.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+1.5, 44)
Titans' elite pass protection vs. Texans' leaky O-line
The Tennessee Titans' offense has come alive after a slow start to the season, and Marcus Mariota and Co. will look to carry that momentum into Sunday's AFC South encounter with the Houston Texans. Tennessee has scored 70 combined points in victories over the Jaguars and Seattle Seahawks, and will look to tame another impressive defense on the strength of an offensive line that has managed to give Mariota all the time he needs to burn the opposition.
Tennessee boasted a top-12 pass protection unit last season, limiting foes to a 5.26 percent sack rate. Things have been a whole lot better through the first three weeks of the 2017 campaign, with Mariota going down on just 1.96 percent of dropbacks - the best rate in football. Blessed with more clean pockets than any starting quarterback in the NFL, Mariota has taken full advantage, completing 60 percent of his passes for 696 yards with three touchdown passes and just one interception.
Rookie Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson would probably give anything for protection like that. Unfortunately, he finds himself at the other end of the spectrum; Houston is surrendering sacks on a whopping 13.89 percent of dropbacks, the worst rate in the league. And while many of those sacks were allowed in a season-opening loss to the Jaguars, the five sacks allowed per game is still miles ahead of the 1.9 mark Houston posted a season ago.
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (-1, 47.5)
Eagles' elite time of possession vs. Chargers' TOP turmoil
With Chip Kelly at the helm, the Philadelphia Eagles were perennially one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But this is a new team - and with it, a new set of habits as the Eagles look to take charge of a competitive NFC East with a win over the host Chargers. Philadelphia is off to a sensational start on offense, and will look to control the play against a Chargers team that hasn't had the ball nearly as much as it would like through the first three weeks of 2017.
With top-10 rankings in both passing (252.7) and rushing yards per game (119.3), it's easy to see why the Eagles have been able to control the ball so effectively. Philadelphia's 34:12 time-of-possession average ranks 12 seconds ahead of the runner-up Carolina Panthers; that's nothing new to the Eagles, who led the league in that category a season ago after finishing dead last in each of the previous three seasons.
The Chargers finished with a modest edge in time of possession last season (30:21), but will be hard-pressed to match that success in 2017. Los Angeles comes into the week ranked among the league's bottom feeders at just 27:19 per game. After ranking 26th in rushing yards per game a season ago, the Chargers are 27th through three games - and at a woeful 30.3-percent conversion rate on third down, Los Angeles isn't extending drives, either. A similar effort Sunday could lead to a one-sided TOP result.
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The Muffed Punt: 'Recency Bias' is going to burn you bad when it comes to this NFL Week 4 bet
Joe Fortenbaugh
Let’s try a bit of an experiment, shall we? I’m going to give you one piece of information about the Ravens-Steelers AFC North showdown that takes place this Sunday in Baltimore and based solely on that information, I want you to pick the winner of that game.
Ready?
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Baltimore Ravens.
So who do you like to win Sunday’s matchup between the Steelers and Ravens?
Sure, that’s a bit of a leading question designed to entice you to pick the Ravens based on the lone piece of information we provided. But what I can’t seem to figure out is why Baltimore is catching three points at home despite the fact that Pittsburgh is 0-4-1 ATS over their last five games against the Ravens.
My best guess is that this pointspread has something to do with “Recency Bias”, which is a term used in the finance world to explain a situation where stock market participants evaluate their portfolio performance based on recent results and make incorrect conclusions that ultimately lead to incorrect decisions about how the stock market behaves.
Applied to this instance, I think bettors are putting too much emphasis on Baltimore’s humiliating 44-7 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last Sunday.
Instead of focusing on just how bad Joe Flacco & Co. looked against Blake Bortles last weekend, pay attention to the fact that the Ravens are 13-2 straight up and 11-4 against the spread under head coach John Harbaugh when coming off a double-digit loss.
And then go ahead and grab the Ravens plus the field goal.
With three weeks in the books
Home teams ATS: 25-21-1
Favorites ATS: 19-26-1
Home underdogs: 12-7
Over/Under: 23-24-1
Trend of the Week
The Los Angeles Chargers are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games played overall.
Think about that for a second. The last time Philip Rivers and the Bolts covered the spread, it came in Week 12 of last season when the Bolts (-2.5) defeated the Texans in Houston by a final score of 21-13. Since that date (11/27/2016), the Chargers have yet to cover a single pointspread.
Does the streak finally come to an end Sunday afternoon at StubHub Center in Carson, California when the Philadelphia Eagles come to town as 1-point underdogs? Take note that Carson Wentz and the Birds are just 2-7 ATS over their last nine road dates.
Sharps like…
*The following information is courtesy Westgate Las Vegas Sportsbook Manager Ed Salmons.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) vs. Miami Dolphins (in London): Drew Brees and the Saints are 11-5 ATS over their last 16 games overall, while the Dolphins are 4-10 ATS over their last 14 games an ATS loss.
Los Angeles Rams (+7.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas is working on a short week following Monday night’s win in Arizona, but note that the Cowboys are just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 games overall. On the flip side, Rams quarterback Jared Goff currently ranks first in the NFL in yards per attempt (10.09).
New York Jets (+4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars: Are you prepared to live in a world that features Blake Bortles as a road favorite?
Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders: The Broncos are 8-3-2 ATS over their last 13 home dates and 16-7 ATS over their last 23 games when coming off a loss. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just 2-8-1 ATS over their last 11 showdowns with the Broncos.
The public likes…
“All NFL favorites with popular teams, like the Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers, Falcons and Chiefs are going to attract public money,” said Salmons. “The book will absolutely need an underdog to win straight-up with all of the moneyline parlays and teaser action we are going to see.”
Biggest line move…
“The Dallas Cowboys, which we opened at -7.5 and have since moved to -6.5,” Salmons told ***********.
The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS over their last seven showdowns against teams with a winning record.
Biggest sweat…
“We needed the Bears on Thursday night, that’s for sure,” said Salmons. “As for Sunday, we’ll definitely need an underdog of six or more points to pull an upset and win straight up.”
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Sean Higgs
Oct 01 '17, 4:25 PM in
NFL | Raiders vs Broncos
Play on: Broncos -3 -115 at 5Dimes
So we will be backing the DENVER BRONCOS as our FREE PLAY here on Sunday. Forget about the Raiders laying an egg last week. That was to be expected. As I said on these pages cashing our Bills play, both AFC West teams would be not as focused on the east coast with this match-up on tap.
Broncos defense will be the difference maker this afternoon. And it is as simple as that. Trevor Siemian comfortable at home with 450 yards 6 TDs/ 2 INTs in wins over San Diego and Dallas. The entire team plays better here. 35-7 SU since 2012. Laying just a FG, we have to bite on the home faves. Raiders 2-8-1 ATS last 11 vs Denver. Take the BRONCOS to get it done in this AFC West battle - GL Sean !
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Jack Jones
Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM
NFL | Steelers vs Ravens
Play on: UNDER 42 -104
Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Steelers/Ravens UNDER 42
The Steelers/Ravens rivalry has been the best in the NFL this century. These teams couldn't hate each other any more than they do, and points are usually hard to come by in a hard-hitting slug fest. I've seen nothing from these teams thus far that leads me to believe it will be any different in their first meeting of 2017.
The Steelers aren't nearly as explosive offensively as many thought they'd be. They are only averaging 21.3 points, 302 yards per game and 5.2 per play against teams that give up 23 points, 328 yards per game and 5.6 per play. Big Ben has been shaky at best, and Le'Veon Bell hasn't been able to get going on the ground. The Steelers are averaging just 69 rushing yards per game and 3.1 per carry.
But the surprising part about the Steelers is that their defense has been lights out. They have made a lot of moves on this side of the ball to get back to the Steel Curtain days. They are giving up just 16.7 points, 259 yards per game and 4.5 per play against teams that average 19.4 points, 343 yards per game and 5.5 per play.
The Ravens have been a nightmare offensively. Joe Flacco is rusty as the passing offense is averaging just 121 yards per game and 4.7 per attempt. They are being held to 17 points, 264 yards per game and 4.5 per play as an offense. Don't expect them to be much better on this side of the ball any time soon.
But the Ravens opened up with a shutout win over Cincinnati, then held Cleveland to just 10 points. Their effort against the Jaguars was an aberration last week, and you can bet they will be looking to rebound defensively in this rivalry game. They are still giving up just 18 points per game after allowing 44 to the Jaguars in London last week.
The UNDER is 21-7 in Steelers last 28 road games. The UNDER is 25-10-1 in Steelers last 36 against division opponents. The UNDER is 15-3 in Steelers last 18 games in the first half of the season. The UNDER is 10-4 in Ravens last 14 home games. The UNDER is 6-1 in Ravens last seven against AFC North foes. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings. Bet the UNDER in this game Sunday.
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Chase Diamond
Oct 01 '17, 1:00 PM
NFL | Jaguars vs Jets
Play on: Jets +3½ -110 at Bovada
This game features the 2-1 Jags at the 1-2 Jets. Jets got a little taste of winning and I think that really motivates this team. Jags are coming back from London still on the road and have to play a Jets team that has not had to travel at all. Again love the plus points with the home team. Public after seeing the way the Jags won are all over them this week as 74% are backing them and yet this line has held tight at 3 in most spots 3.5 if you can get lucky. Take the Jets plus the points but I think they win this outrite. 15* Jets
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