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Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-04-2017 at 06:11 PM.
Dave Cokin:
371 Arizona +7
395 LSU +7
Double dragon sports - ncaa week #6 - hydra
Double dragon sports
11-unit hydra
miami u. -3
Brad Powers
3 star San Diego St -9
2 star Maryland +32
2 star Utah +6.5
Spartan
3* SEC GAME OF THE Month
Kentucky-10
Mega Locks
Arkansas -2 1/2 (No higher than -3)
TONY FINN
PLAY: (365) San Diego State -10.5 (good to -12.5)
4% rating
(365) San Diego State at (366) UNLV
San Diego State football arrived long before their 5-0 start this season or winning a game, last week, while residing in the top-25. The big victory last Saturday night by the Rebels over San Jose State, a 41-13 victory, assisted in raising the market value of UNLV allowing the line in this event to stay well under the -14-plus I had placed on this contest.
The football history of the Aztecs is rich. The school was under the direction of the man that changed the scheme of the National Football League, when Don "Air" Coryell was walking the sidelines for SDSU. Coryell coached 12 seasons with the San Diego State University Aztecs, using the philosophy of recruiting only junior college players. There, he compiled a record of 104 wins, 19 losses and 2 ties including three undefeated seasons in 1966, 1968 and 1969.
The current head coach, Rocky Long, is on his way to being one of the Aztecs sideline legends if he continues his program as is. Long just does it a bit differently than Coryell did. The Aztecs are, in truth, coming off their best season, and despite some player personnel losses, are head and shoulders more talented and own more depth than any team in the pedestrian MWC.
Since the school began the 2015 campaign at 1-3 they have owned the turf going 21-3 since. The school has won two straight MWC titles and just finished in the AP poll for the first time since 1977. There is an attitude and confidence surrounding the coaching staff and the roster. They expect to win and know how to do so with a scheme that is run in combination with stopping the run.
Note: No. 19 ranked SDSU at UNLV will be televised on ESPN2 at 7:45 p.m. local time here in Las Vegas.
The Rebels are extremely young, impressionable and inconsistent. I had my largest rated play on this team last weekend against a tired and outmanned San Jose State group, a game we laid two possessions with, and covered. To give you an example of how difficult a team to read, even the local sportsbook managers have had, UNLV lost their season opener to Howard, straight up, as 45 point favorites, allowing 43 points on their home turf.
Since that point they have defeated Idaho State and as mentioned, last week's victory over San Jose St. The team is 2-2 overall with a 33 point loss to Ohio State at the "Shoe".
There was as all of you know tragedy in our town this past week, the Sunday night shooting, on the strip. How much will the event effect the team, both teams, for that matter? This can only be speculated but the variable comes into play when examining this game.
This is, of course just football, and while these kinds of events can motivate teams, this life changing occurrence will have been a distraction for the UNLV team more than that of SDSU, and for good reason. It happened in the kids back yard.
It is safe to say that the Rebels will have an issue focusing, in typical fashion, on this game. Coach Tony Sanchez isn't going to emphasize football over what he and his players will be doing in the community this week. This isn't Sanchez and this young group of players will eventually be a solid unit... they are overmatched this weekend, however.
There will be a large amount of reminders of the Sunday night shooting, before and during this game, a moment of silence before the game and signage during the game.
This event hasn't escaped the Aztecs completely. They have three assistant coaches with ties to LV. Bobby Hauck and Jeff Horton were formally on the UNLV staff and Hunkie Cooper played for the Rebels and even coached at Canyon Springs High School. There are also a handful of players from the desert playing for the Aztecs. But focus for Long's kids will be a much more normal than for that of Sanchez' troop.
Not only is this the toughest remaining game on UNLV's slate it comes in the same week when these kids will be asked to do things that are outside of their routine. And not to overuse the event as an excuse to invest in this game but these kids are going to be emotionally fatigued by Saturday night.
This game comes down to talent and experience and San Diego owns the edge in both areas.
San Diego State’s Rashaad Penny leading the Mountain West with 164.6 yards per game and has executed this against a tough schedule. The Aztecs have defeated two Pac-12 teams, Arizona State and Stanford.
UNLV’s Lexington Thomas is averaging 142.8 yards on the ground per game but Penny's 164-plus is a bit more impressive.
Offensively, UNLV is averaging 36.5 PPG and face a San Diego State Aztecs defense that ranks No. 42 in FBS allowing just 21.2 PPG over their handful of wins this year. Strength of schedule for both of these teams, again, strongly favors the Aztecs, despite the fact that the Rebels had Ohio State on their plate a couple of weeks ago.
The UNLV Rebels, under Sanchez, want to be balanced and throw the ball effectively, but this is an offense that averages only 176 yards per game through the air. San Diego State, playing the likes of ASU's Wilkins and Stanford this season, have allowed only 184.4 YPG passing.
Just how good is, or has the potential to be, is this San Diego State Aztecs unit? They are a top-50 team in terms of rating their defensive front seven. They have allowed 132 yards per game as a visitor and are, without question, a defensive minded team, that runs the ball on offense with authority.
The Aztecs are top to bottom better than the young Rebels. They have prepared for the likes of the Arizona State Devils passing attack, a dual quarterback much like the Rebels possess in Rodgers, they have face and defeated Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love and Stanford, and squared off against the difficult option of Air Force and won that affair, as well. And they are coming off a game and a win over NIU, the same team that went into Lincoln, Nebraska, and defeated the Cornhuskers.
The roster and player personnel that Long has on the defensive side of the football are a superb fit for Longs 3-3-5 scheme. And this is a group of players that have been defensively dominate over the last couple of seasons ranking 26th and 24th in Def. S&P+, respectively over the last two seasons.
Defense travels and this is a very good defensive club. They held the Sun Devils to 20 points, the Cardinals to just 17 and Air Force to 24, all victories for the 5-0 Aztecs. SDSU' record-setting Donnel Pumphrey and four of the five offensive linemen are gone from last season but Penny and his front-men have five games under their belt, have defeated all five, including wins at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe and at altitude against the Falcons of the Air Force academy. They are loaded on the defensive side of the football and while there may be a few more fans in the stands at Boyd this weekend the Rebels have no home field advantage. They are not close to where SDSU is as a program nor do they have the following.
What I expected and what UNLV’s offense was able to do a week ago to SJSU and their 125th ranked defense was terrific stuff however this week's task against SDSU is a completely different animal.
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS -10.5
Maddux
20 LSU +6
10 Buff +7
10 Mizzou +13'
SSI WINS
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Texas A&M +26.5 -110*vs Alabama
Risked 5 units to win 4.55*Utah +5.5 -110*vs Stanford
SSI WINS PARLEY LIFESTYLE PICKS
Florida ML/Miami (FL) ML/Washington State ML-NCAAF (3.5 UNITS)
Northwestern +15/Iowa State +28/Maryland +30/Texas A&M +26.5-NCAAF (1.5 UNITS)
6* TopsOriginally Posted by Can'tPickAWinner
NW +14.5
AUBURN -21 (-120)
TCU -13
KANSAS ST. +4
ALABAMA -26.5
MICH ST. +11
Megalocks
Kansas state/Texas under 50 play to 48
Dave Essler
CFB
Triple (3*) Max-Bet utah +6
2* south carolina +2
Goodfella
3* PAC-12 underdog game of the month
Utah +7
3* Washington st +3
Greg shaker
3* TOTAL Of The MONTH
Michigan / Michigan st over 39
2* Connecticut / Memphis under 73.5
Stephen Nover
3* CFB TOTALS DOMINATOR
Texas / Kansas st under 50
Greg shaker
2* Connecticut / Memphis under 73.5
Indian Cowboy
8-Unit Play. #362. Take Tulane -4 over Tulsa (Saturday @ 12pm est)
Our top play this week is on Tulane as we are big fans of Coach Willie Fritz. Fritz if you remember used to coach Georgia Southern and led them to a 9-3 and 8-4 season which eventually led to a GoDaddy Bowl Game. Then he got the call up to Coach in the American Athletic Conference with Tulane and he took the opportunity. His first year was tough as the team went on to a 4-8 record but quietly he has done what he has always done and rebuilt this team to a much stronger up front team and now sits at 2-2 including a win over Army last week. Remember, he used to coach Sam Houston State and took a 6-5 team there to a 14-1 and 11-4 record in back to back years including trips to the NCAA Championship at the lower level. Fritz used to be a secondary coach too during his developing years which is why Tulane is top 25 in the nation in pass defense. This team is also top 20 in the nation in rushing yards as well. This is a team that loves to control the trenches and don't forget this team has played Oklahoma this year and lost 14-56 and lost to Navy 21-23 as an 8 point underdog on the road and beat up on Grambling earlier this year 43-14. With Tulsa beating this team 57-20 last year this team has more than enough revenge coming into this game. Plus, Tulsa has Houston on deck and is one of the worst defenses in America ranked outside the top 125. Sure, Tulsa can run the ball with great efficiency as a top 20 rushing team - but Tulane will just load the box and make them pass it as Tulsa is ranked 115th in passing. Tulane is 5-2 ATS following a bye week and the favorite is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.
3-Unit Play. #315. Take Under 49.5 Western Michigan vs. Buffalo (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
Western Michigan is a strong defensive team as they are the 41st best defensive team in the nation and 27th in passing yards allowed and top 40 in rushing yards while not being a good passing team as they are outside the top 115 in passing yards. So, Western Michigan loves to run the ball and is a good defensive team. This team comes off holding their last two opponents to just 17 points and they face a Buffalo team whose strength is their defense as they held Minnesota to just 17 points in the season opener. Buffalo is 25th in the nation in points allowed and after losing 38-0 last year, their defense will want to step up here. Buffalo is also top 15 in the nation in pass defense so Western Michigan will want to run the ball in general as well. Look for a lot of clock to be eaten up in this game.
3-Unit Play. #321. Take Under 51 Ball State vs. Akron (Saturday @ 3:30pm est)
Ball State just played Notre Dame and gave up 55 points and prior to that gave up 33 points to a good Western Kentucky team. Seeing that Notre Dame is mad at the world now and Western Kentucky is a good team, don't hold that against Ball State too much as they will be motivated to play - in particular on defense. Even with that this team is still top 65 on defense and they lost 25-35 to Akron last year so they will want some revenge here. However, Ball State's focus will be on their defense this week and Akron's defense is a lot better than top 95 as the stats show. They held a very good Troy team to 21 points (who beat LSU on the road) and held Bowling Green to just 23 points. After having played Penn State and Iowa State, anyone's defensive rankings will take a hit. We like a low scoring affair in this one.
3-Unit Play. #328. Take Under 55 Cincinnati vs. Central Florida (Saturday @ 8pm est)
Central Florida just hammered Memphis and now finds itself in the top 25 in the nation. Good for Scott Frost and company. UCF is a top 20 rushing team and a top 20 defense. This team just held Memphis to 13 points, Maryland to 10 points and FIU to 17 points. When Cincinnati is overmatched, they like to run the ball a lot such as their contest against Michigan when they lost 14-36. Cincinnati is a top 25 pass defense but they are a terrible rush defense which UCF is aware of. Look for UCF to run the ball a lot here and look for Cincinnati to keep the UCF offense off the field.
2 Open Enders and a GOY from TLM.
6-6 on the year.
if I get, I will post.
Raphael Esparza (VSI)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
6 Unit Play. Take #348 Purdue -4 over Minnesota (3:30p.m., Saturday October 7ESPN2)
A really good Big 10 matchup at Ross-Ade Stadium between the Minnesota Golden Gophers against the Purdue Boilermakers and the home crowd will be cheering with heavy hearts. Former Purdue head coach Joe Tiller pasted away last weekend and they will be honoring him all weekend long and that should motivate this surprising Big 10 Saturday afternoon. We had Minnesota last weekend at home and the Maryland Turtles won on the road while the Boilermakers lost at home to the Michigan Wolverines. If Purdue can play like they did against Missouri then I see Purdue winning this game easily by 7-points or more and look for the Boilermakers defense to step at home Saturday late afternoon. The favorite in this series is 11-4-1 ATS and lets throw in that Purdue is 10-4 ATS coming off a SU loss.
3 Unit Play. Take #356 Utah +5 over Stanford (10:15p.m., Saturday October 7 FS1)
What Stanford team are we going to see in this road conference matchup. The Stanford team that beat UCLA and Arizona St or the Stanford team that lost badly to USC. Utah gets this game at home (Rice-Eccles Stadium) and the last time Stanford visited Rice-Eccles Stadium the Utes won 27-21. Both Stanford losses were on the road and with the Utes plus 5 at home I see whoever wins this game wins it by 5 points or less. Utah is 5-1 ATS against conference opponents and Stanford is 1-5 ATS against winning record teams.
5 Unit Play. Take #377 Over 60.5 Washington St at Oregon (8:00p.m., Saturday October 7 FOX)
Oregon still remembers last year game in Washington when the Cougars won 51-33 and that game easily flew OVER and Saturday night I see another high scoring game. This game in Eugene Oregon will be the Cougars first road game of the season and the Ducks will be looking for revenge since Washington St has won back-to-back meetings. The Ducks last 4 games they are averaging 42.7ppg and I see them racking up big offense numbers at home against the Cougars defense. The Cougars offense is also impressive and I see Luke Falk putting up big numbers against the Ducks defense. Here is another high scoring PAC-12 matchup and we should see tons of points in this game. Washington St last 4 road games all 4 of tem have gone OVER and the last 6 meetings between these two teams 5 of them have gone OVER.
4 Unit Play. Take #402 Kentucky -9.5 over Missouri (7:30p.m., Saturday October 7SEC)
This play is all on the Missouri Tigers offense and this offense has only produced 30 points in 3 games. Lets also throw in those 3 Mizzou games were at home! I know Kentucky is coming off a bad showing to Eastern Michigan last weekend but they still got the 'W' and with this game being played in Kentucky I see the Wildcats winning and winning easy. Missouri is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games and the Tigers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 SEC conference games. Kentucky is 8-1 ATS in conference games and the favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS. The Mizzou Tigers continue to struggle and are UNDER total season wins future bet looks good right now.
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