Doc's Picks
CFB NC State +3
Doc's Picks
CFB NC State +3
Joe Duffy
TNF Total From Sizzling and Proven Handicapper
New England vs. Tampa Bay, 10/05/2017 20:25 EDT
Total: -110/+54½ Over
Sportsbook:
Bodog
No. 1 in preseason football, No. 4 in college football, No. 8 in regular season NFL, Joe Duffy again is winning as steady as he has for nearly 30 years since the score phones.
Very big guaranteed portfolio. Get Wise Guy winners on the college and NFL sides, plus college total. Profit is guaranteed.
New England vs. Tampa Bay free pick
" Pats No. 2 over team, going over all four by 15.5 points per game
" Pats third worst spread team at -8.8 and 1-3
" Teams with a worse winning percentage yet still a road favorite of 3.5 or more are 18-12
" Tom Brady off a loss is 30-10 against the spread and 20-3 on the road
" Bill Belichick has never won in Tampa as an assistant or head coach
" Biggest regular season game in Tampa history
" Tampa gets back Doug Martin from suspension this week
o 4,227 career yards rushing for 4.2 but just 2.9 yards per rush last year
" Two solid TE in Cameron Brate and OJ Howard
" DeSean Jackson only nine catches but Martin could open things up
" Brady has been sacked 13 times, seventh in the league
" Patriots 9-3 favorites
" Slightly below median consensus for road favorites and modest percentage over, less than normal
Free pick is: OVER
Red Sox are 1-5 in last 6 ALDS road games.
Astros are 11-2 in last 13 at home & 5-0 in Verlander's 5 starts with HOU.
BOS +120 / HOU -130
Pro Computer Gambler
Red Sox vs. Astros
Play: Astros -128
Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games.
The Astros are 14-2 ON since Sep 12, 2017 as a favorite
The Astros are 11-2 ON since Aug 31, 2017 as a home favorite
SPORTS WAGERS
TAMPA BAY +5 over New England
The Buccaneers don't get a lot of attention, as Tampa isn't exactly New York City, but the home squad has ripped off six straight at Raymond James Stadium. Thursday’s game against the Patriots is sold out, which is a big deal for the Bucs, as they ranked in the bottom third in stadium capacity percentage in 2016. With young talented players like Jameis Winston and Mike Evans, the Bucs have been a sexy preseason sleeper in recent years but have not fulfilled those lofty expectations. After their season was delayed in Week 1 because of Hurricane Irma, Tampa opened their season in Week 2 with a rousing 29-7 win over the Bears. The defense feasted with four turnovers in a big emotional victory after a huge regional disaster. We are willing to forgive the Bucs Week 3 loss in Minnesota, as it looked to be a big letdown spot and we acted accordingly by posting the Vikes as an official play. Last week against the Giants, the Bucs needed a last-second field goal to beat a winless team but it seems that did little to impress the market. However, we liked what we saw from the offense, as Winston threw for 300 yards and three TD’s against a Giants’ secondary that still has respect around the league and that Pro Football Focus ranked number one coming into 2017. Through three games, the Bucs offense is ranked ninth in yards per game (362.3) and Winston is sixth in yards per attempt. The Buccaneers should also get a jump start from returning running back Doug Martin. The two time Pro Bowler is loved by his teammates who he remained close with during his suspension. Fellow runner Charles Sims said, “He brings life and energy. He's a game-changer”. Martin took part in the entire offseason program, training camp and the preseason and it sounds like his presence will bring a boost to the locker room.
On the surface, one doesn’t have to look far to see that the weakness of these Patriots is their defense. New England is 32nd in yards allowed per game and 31st in points allowed per game; only the Colts are worse. Last year, the Pats played a lot more aggressive at the corners mostly in press/man coverage so it looked like the perfect fit when they signed high priced free agent corner Stephon Gilmore from Buffalo, a specialist in that defensive scheme. Instead, this season the Patriots have played far more zone than man leaving Gilmore totally out of his element and in Bill Belichick’s doghouse after he was benched in the third quarter of Sundays 33-30 loss to the Panthers. That score actually flatters the Patriots, who were down 30-16 with 12:58 left in the fourth quarter. It was the second week in a row the Pats were forced to come back in the final frame but this week they came up short. One of the Patriots biggest weaknesses last season was their inability to cover another team’s number one receiver. Gilmore was supposed to be that guy to plug that hole but after four weeks the Patriots are dead last in that category. It’s not just Gilmore that’s been the issue either. The Patriots defense as a group is also at the bottom of the barrel in defensive DVOA (a relevant metric that measures defense-adjusted value over average). The Patriots defense is so bad they drag the number two offense all they down to 22nd in total DVOA behind teams like Tennessee, Baltimore, and Cincinnati, not exactly AFC powerhouses. New England is now 2-2 but has been statistically dominated in three of their four games by Kansas City in Week 1, by Houston in Week 3 and by Carolina four days ago. The Pats should be 1-3 but it will take a lot more than one loss to scare the market off Tom Brady and company.
The case for the Patriots is superficial at best and just having Tom Brady isn’t enough. We’ve heard New England rarely plays poorly after a loss but previous results do not matter. However, a big win over New Orleans in Week 2 after getting crushed by the Chiefs is fresh in the market’s mind helping to support that flawed logic. In reality, the Pats probably shouldn’t even be favored in this spot but they are still way too popular to not be spotting points in just about every game they play. Holding court against the Super Bowl champs is a big game on any team’s schedule but add the bright lights of a prime time game and this could be the breakout game that brings the Bucs to the dance. The Patriots are the more flawed team here spotting road points on three day’s rest. Tampa is very worthy of a money line play here but we’ll play it safe and take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Series Wager: N.Y. Yankees +170 over CLEVELAND
We could reach for an intertwined description to frame the upcoming ALDS battle between the Yankees and Indians but, really, this is a series of two teams with two distinct identities. On one side, we have the notorious Yankees—the Evil Empire, the next great New York dynasty, the financial powerhouse built like a small-market team with a roster perfect for the postseason. On the other, the Indians—the defending AL champions, the owners of a record-breaking 22-game winning streak, the electrifying and fun-loving roster which features Francisco Lindor’s smile and a complete set of baseball dolls. These two clubs are vastly different and unmistakably unique and that should make for a hell of a five-game series.
This is undoubtedly going to come up several times over the next couple of days, so we’ll get it out of the way now—the Indians and Yankees hold the two best run differentials in baseball, with Cleveland leading at +254 and New York second at +198. The two clubs’ offenses have played a major role in that, as the Yankees and Indians have scored the second- and sixth-most runs in baseball, respectively.
The first thing you might have noticed with the Yankees is that, by our measures, their lineup is ostensibly top-heavy. The first four batters are responsible for 80 percent of the order’s WARP, and there’s a serious drop-off past Gregorius. This observation held true in the club’s Wild Card win against the Twins, as the first four in the lineup scored all of the Yankees’ eight runs, going 7 for 15 with a double and three home runs in the process.
That said, the bottom half of the lineup isn’t quite as poor as it’s made out to be here: Castro’s missed time but remains a .300 hitter (albeit with few walks in the process), Bird’s now healthy and had a very good September; Hicks, Ellsbury, and Frazier all have their strengths as well. The Indians boast a more balanced lineup, one which can find myriad ways to beat you and rarely lets up. The dynamic Indians’ middle infield serves as the heartbeat, but look past Lindor and Ramirez and you’ll just find more quality bats.
Although Kipnis is having a down season, skipper Terry Francona trusts him high in the order for good reason—the center fielder upped his game in September and has an excellent track record. Following the front three is a trio of potent power bats: New additions Encarnacion and Bruce, plus a familiar face in Santana, combined for 97 home runs. Oh, and the next man up, Chisenhall, is no slouch himself but after missing two months with an injury, the lefty has hit just .224/.296/.306 in September. Alas, the bottom of the Tribes lineup features two rather unspectacular slots, as a Perez and Yan Gomes timeshare isn’t going to do much damage, nor will sophomore Urshela and his light bat.
There was a push among some New York beat writers to start Romine in the Wild Card game and put Sanchez at DH due to passed ball concerns but, luckily, the Yankees passed on that idea. You can read that ‘idea’ as a compliment toward Romine, but he’s about as ‘backup catcher’ as you can get. Speaking of embracing roles, Torreyes has been a key player for the Yankees this season, both filling in admirably at second base while Castro was out, and serving as an excellent utility infielder for the Yankees. There’s also Clint Frazier, the talented rookie (and former top prospect in the Indians’ system) who got off to a fast start but was injured and hasn’t been productive since. He might get some pinch-hitting chances and can play the outfield decently enough, but don’t expect a big role for Red Thunder just yet.
The real thumpers off the bench for New York are Chase Headley and Matt Holliday, two players who very well could have started in the Wild Card game and will likely see starts in this series. Headley rebounded from a shaky first half to hit a robust .300/.366/.455 after the All-Star break, while Holliday had the opposite season script after getting off to an excellent start and falling off the rails following an illness. The 37-year-old was somewhat better in September, but ‘better’ only means so much when you hit .130 between June and July.
The Indians’ pine is intriguing as well. The timeshare between Gomes and Perez isn’t an ideal situation, but it always leaves a very capable player available for later in games. Both players could start for some teams but, as they say in football: If you have two quarterbacks (catchers, in this case), you don’t have any. They’re also stacked in the outfield—Austin Jackson has been an extremely pleasant surprise and wouldn’t be out of place hitting at the top of the Indians’ order. Coincidentally, he might just find himself in that role in this series if Francona decides to go with him instead of Kipnis. Brantley isn’t healthy enough to play the field after missing a month with an ankle sprain so, for now, he’ll remain an excellent pinch hitter who could see his role expand soon.
Here’s the bad news for the Indians: They lack a southpaw in the rotation, and the Yankees’ offense have been weaker against lefties in 2017. Here’s the good news: they have Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and (possibly) Corey Kluber again.
Francona took a unique approach to his playoff rotation, one which sparked a couple of minor controversies upon its announcement. The first of which was to start Kluber in the second game of the series, rather than in the first, as aces traditionally do. It’s an interesting move by the club’s manager—pushing Kluber back allows the club to start him in a (possible) game five on normal rest. Then again, planning for a game five as heavy favorites is a questionable tactic. Either way, Trevor Bauer will get the ball first, barring a drone attack. He’s been mediocre overall on the season, but more importantly has a 3.01 ERA in the second half and looked excellent down the stretch. Still, Francona could be accused of over-managing here, as Bauer doesn’t strike fear into the opposition like Kluber does. Not starting Kluber may work out but in a short five-game series, winning Game 1 is huge. Bauer is not a Game 1 starter and he knows it. He’ll be pitching under some serious pressure here.
Kluber starts Game 2 so not much more needs to be said about that. Game 3 is started by Carlos Carrasco, who has been excellent all year but then comes that second controversy: the club’s fourth starter. Francona had a tough decision, as he had to pick between Josh Tomlin, Mike Clevinger, and Danny Salazar. You can check the next section for Clevinger and Salazar’s statistics, but there’s a good argument for all three getting the start. But one can imagine that the team’s manager knows best, so Josh Tomlin it is.
The Yankees are a bit less… weird in their rotation alignment. With Severino used up following a Wild Card dud in which he recorded just one out and allowed three runs, the Yankees’ second ace, Gray, will take the mound. CC Sabathia is next, followed by Tanaka, who is coming off a career-best 15 strikeout performance to cap off a disappointing season.
Severino will then take the hill if needed in Game 4, hoping to come out with calmer nerves. If you’re looking for precedent here, Severino also seemed to get too amped up for his first start at home against the Red Sox this season and allowed 10 runs in his worst outing of the year. The next time he faced Boston? Six innings and just one unearned run. Severino has the stuff and he learned another lesson on Tuesday night.
Game 5 for the Yankees has yet to be officially unannounced, but one has to imagine that Gray would take the mound again on an extra day of rest. You already know about the Yankees’ bullpen—its dominance was the biggest factor in the club’s 8-4 victory in the Wild Card so allow the numbers speak for themselves here; this is probably the best bullpen in baseball, and it isn’t hard to see why.
The Indians aren’t exactly lacking in relief talent, either. They have one of the best relievers we’ve ever seen in the incredible Andrew Miller, and he’s backed up by the excellent Cody Allen and Joe Smith. The rest of the bullpen is made up of very solid depth.
Managers
In most circumstances, I’d shy away from this section of a playoff preview; it can be challenging to accurately capture a manager’s impact, and putting a magnifying glass on individual skippers can lead to some inaccurate conclusions. But this time is different. In one dugout, we have one of the best managers in baseball. In the other dugout, we have one of the best managers in baseball. Terry Francona’s creative moves this past October might have changed the way postseason bullpen roles are viewed for years to come. Joe Girardi hasn’t had quite the same impact, but his daring choice to go with a bullpen game after Severino’s struggles in the Wild Card game was a huge reason for the Yankees’ victory. If he hadn’t thought on his feet and expertly managed a bullpen for 8 2/3 dominating innings, we could be talking about the Twins right now.
Defense
You’ll hear about Sanchez’s defense one way or another in this series—either because commenters will be lauding his arm or lamenting over a passed ball. While he possesses a cannon behind the plate, he led all big-league catchers in passed balls, and some of his slip-ups have come at critical times. Other than that, the only big thing to watch with the Yankees is whether Hicks or Ellsbury is patrolling the outfield, as one of them had the hardest throw in baseball last year while the other has a wet noodle for an arm. For Cleveland, well, just enjoy the show from Lindor.
The Wager
Considering the Indians are the World Series favorites and rightfully so, a reasonable person would choose them over the Wild Card Yankees. But, well, the Yankees aren’t an easy opponent. They have a heck of an offense—probably better than Cleveland’s, in fact—and they also have an advantage with their bullpen. As a result, it all comes down to the starting pitching. Can the Indians’ three dominant pitchers (Kluber, Carrasco, and Kluber) shut down the Yankees’ high-powered offense? Can the Yankees make up for their inferior rotation with an elite bullpen and plenty of dingers? It’s a closer matchup than you’d think and perhaps, just perhaps, the Indians peaked a bit too early. At the end of the day, it’s always about value and as a big price in an evenly matched series, the Yankees have to be the play.
Note: We are passing on the Astros/Red Sox. We prefer the Astronauts in the series but we’re not interested in spotting a price. We’ll play that series individually if something comes up that looks good. We’ll have the NL series and games posted tomorrow.
SPORTS WAGERS
Philadelphia +145 over LOS ANGELES
OT included. The Los Angeles Kings made some major changes this offseason but it didn’t come on the ice. L.A. fired both general manager Dean Lombardi and head coach Darryl Sutter and replaced them with Rob Blake and John Stevens. Stevens has an established coaching track record at a variety of levels including the NHL when he served as Head Coach of the Philadelphia Flyers from 2006-09. With the Flyers his club had a 120-109-34 record while leading the Flyers to the Eastern Conference Final in 2008. However, he also had seven 20-goal scorers back then and he might not have half that with the Kings. On the ice, L.A. had an awfully quiet off-season. With very little free cap space, they were unable to make any big-name signings. They brought back former Los Angeles Kings’ forward, Mike Cammalleri on a one-year, $1 million deal. Cammalleri is coming off two mediocre seasons with the New Jersey Devils and finished last season with only 10 goals, and 31 points in 61 games. While every team is getting quicker and younger, the Kings are getting older and slower. Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, and Jeff Carter will carry this team to whatever success they may have. Meanwhile, one of the NHL’s most overrated goaltenders is healthy and ready to go. This market loves Jonathan Quick because the media keeps insisting he’s great but we’re here to tell you he’s not.
Quick will play in his 10th NHL season this year. How great is he? He had one great year back in 2011-12 when the Kings won the Cup and he posted a .928 save percentage. Other than that, he’s been at .918 or under every other year, which is in Steve Mason territory over Mason’s last five years. It’s also worth noting that Quick was playing behind a very good L.A. defense for years so his numbers are even more skewed. This is a below average netminder playing on a team that can’t score goals. Quick is slower too, as he’s battled several injuries over the past three years.
The Flyers played last night in San Jose and won 5-3. They had a 2-0 lead, a 3-2 lead, a 4-3 lead and finally ended it with an empty-netter late in the third period. Philadelphia never trailed the entire game and had all four lines making an impact. The Flyers look to be a well-balanced squad this year with scoring throughout the lineup. Teams can no longer focus on Giroux’s line. The #2 pick in the June draft, Nolan Patrick did not look a bit out of a place. The Flyers had 29 scoring chances to the Sharks’ 20. A win on opening night in San Jose is a great confidence booster. The Flyers have to be feeling great heading into Los Angeles with a 1-0 record as opposed to being 0-1. The Flyers have a very good game under their belt, they’re energized and they’re the superior team here taking back a tag while the Kings are not difficult to beat anymore.
Arizona +150 over ANAHEIM
Bringing back a core that might have advanced to the Cup Final had No. 1 goaltender John Gibson stayed healthy, the Ducks have their sights set on taking the next step. They cleared a big hurdle with their series-clinching win against the Edmonton Oilers in the second round but Anaheim will be far from healthy coming into the opener. Defensemen Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen will each miss the first few weeks after suffering shoulder injuries during the playoffs. Center Ryan Kesler is also out, which leaves the Ducks with Ryan Getzlaf, Antoine Vermette, Chris Wagner and Logan Shaw as the four centers for now. That’s a problem. While we like the Ducks depth everywhere else, Anaheim has started slow the past couple of years and usually kick it into gear once January rolls around. This line also stuck out to us. If the Blues, a quality squad for years, were getting +170 in Pittsburgh last night and Philadelphia is getting +145 in L.A. tonight, how can these perennial basement dwellers be priced less than St. Louis and in the same range as Philly? That tells us the oddsmakers give the Coyotes a big shot tonight.
Arizona is high on our radar as an undervalued squad. Defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson is great and Alex Goligoski joins him back there. Adding Niklas Hjalmarsson and Jason Demers and Arizona’s blue line is looking pretty damn good. Gone are longtime head coach Dave Tippett and captain Shane Doan. After eight seasons behind the bench, Tippett was replaced by former Pittsburgh Penguins assistant Rick Tocchet, who will lean heavily on his new top center, Derek Stepan, and starting goaltender, Antti Raanta, each of whom were acquired in a trade with the New York Rangers. The ‘Yotes also have one of the most compelling prospect groups in the league with Dylan Strome, Brendan Perlini, Christian Dvorak and Clayton Keller, who starred at Boston University last season and could be a favorite to win the Calder Trophy as top rookie. All that potential could flourish under Tocchet, who was hailed as a players' coach in Pittsburgh and was generally considered among the league's top assistants after capturing back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Penguins. The Coyotes top three lines look like the following: Max Domi-Derek Stepan-Brendan Perlini, Clayton Keller-Christian Dvorak-Tobias Rieder and Dylan Strome-Brad Richardson-Anthony Duclair. Antti Raanta is more than ready to take on the added responsibility of being the #1 goaltender and if he’s as good as projected, the Coyotes are not going to be an easy out this year. We’ll put that to the test right off the bat.
Future Wager: N.Y. Rangers+250 to miss playoffs
This wager is available at BET365 in the “To Reach Playoffs” section at the bottom of the hockey betting page but if you don’t have an account there, you can also bet the Rangers to go under 95½ points because if they do miss the playoffs, they will likely be way under that number. We could play under 95½ too but that’s an even money wager while missing the playoffs will bring us back a healthy return of +250.
Thus, in order for the Rangers to miss the playoffs, there has to be improvements in the East from two or three teams that missed the playoffs last year and that will take the Rangers place in the postseason this year. Last year’s playoff teams in the East were Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Toronto, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus and New York Rangers. We can almost be certain that Washington, Toronto, Pittsburgh and Montreal will make the playoffs again this year. Columbus has too much talent to take a step backwards so that’s five playoff teams right there. That leaves three up for grabs and it would be absolutely unreasonable to expect the Lightning to miss the playoffs again. Tampa Bay might have the best talent in the East and they are not going to repeat last year.
Assuming Tampa makes it along with our other five almost sure things, that leaves two playoff spots up for grabs between Carolina, Florida, Detroit, Boston, Philadelphia, the Rangers, the Islanders, Buffalo and New Jersey. Carolina is ready to make its move. The addition of goaltender Scott Darling stabilizes the ‘Canes on the backend behind a deep, young and very talented defense core. Carolina figures to make the playoffs too. Carolina might even be a top-3 team in the East and had they not lost more OT games than any NHL team over the past two years, they would’ve made the playoffs both years. Carolina is 100% a playoff calibre team.
To recap, we can reasonably expect Toronto, Montreal, Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Tampa Bay and Carolina to make the playoffs. That would leave one open spot for the Rangers and they would have to beat out Boston, Ottawa, Florida, Philadelphia, Buffalo or the Islanders, assuming that Detroit and New Jersey have no shot. Some say Philly is a year away from exploding. Surely, the Flyers could be ahead of schedule this year. Some say Florida has too much talent to miss the playoffs. Some say Ottawa can play as good as they did last year. Some say Buffalo had the best offseason of any team in the East. One cannot count out the Bruins either. The Islanders have been 94 points or better for the last three seasons and the coaching change to Doug Weight last year showed the potential for this group. Anyone of those “bubble” teams can beat out the Rangers and some might beat them out by a wide margin.
The New York Rangers are a capped out team that is in serious need at center. Factor in a suddenly less reliant Henrik Lundqvist (we call him pure garbage) without a suitable backup safety net and we’re putting the Rangers outside the playoff picture. Kevin Shattenkirk helps the power-play but he doesn’t help that wasteland of a defense. We didn’t like the Derek Stepan trade either, at least for the short term. Stepan is an outstanding defensive-minded center who is great on the penalty kill. In 81 games last season he scored 17 goals and added 38 assists for 55 points. The Rangers are on the decline and we’re suggesting it all comes to a head this year by them missing the playoffs and/or finishing below the posted point total of 95½.
a lil soccer wager help if anyone knows.
The OC play today is an Brazil -1/2 .
there are 2 options I see, ML Brasil -130 or Brasil -1/2 -130
what is the smarter play? thx Swami
sorry thats the IC 7* play , Indian Cowboy, Brasil -1/2
[COLOR=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.7)]I guess I'm not understanding why the Brasil ML and the -1/2 are BOTH -130.
[/COLOR]
Originally Posted by swaminator
OVER is 8-0 in Patriots last 8 games overall & OVER is 7-0 in Bucs last 7 Thursday games.
Tonight's total: 54.5
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