The Prez
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
*****5% GB -3.5
As difficult as it is to win on the road in the NFL it is typically even harder to do so in the Black and Blue division. However, the Packers have had their share of success winning three of the last four in the Twin Cities. Last week's win by GB in Dallas was just as much about the coaching staff's talents as it was about Aaron Rodgers' comeback ability.
Conversely, the lack of consistency and health on the offensive side of the football for Minnesota has resulted in the Vikings defense being overued in the first five weeks of the season. QB Bradford has missed too many reps and the loss of their primary ground gainer, Cook, has made them a playoff afterthought for the remainder of this year.
It isn't reasonable to expect the current Minnesota roster to continue with their against the spread success at home. While they are 14-5 ATS as hosts the Packers have made the proper adjustments on the offensive line to be the best team in the NFC. Not only the best team straight up but against the spread with a current 8-3 ATS mark L/`11.
Is it worthwhile to offer the Packers addition edges here with Minnesota coming off a Monday Night event on the road with one less day of preparation? Yes, yes and yes again.
It is in this cappers opinion that regardless of who starts at quarterback Sunday afternoon, be it Bradford or Keenum, neither can do enough damage without a running game to keep pace with Rodgers and his teammates. The Vikings don't have an answer for losing Cook five yards per carry. Evidence of this was in Monday Night's contest when the team was unable to get hard yards when needed.
*** Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
3% OVER 50
Regression for both teams is overdue in this NFL Sunday contest between the Lions and the Saints. The Lions were unable to force turnovers on their side of the field last week in a loss to Cam Newton and the Panthers and without the opposition making those mistakes the Lions have to score big to win games. The fact that Saints quarterback Drew Brees has yet to turn the ball over in four games doesn't bode well for the Detroit secondary. However, if Brees and his offense do turn the ball over it is likely to be on their end of the field where they have gambled more than in years past.
Detroit has game planned to near perfection against New Orleans the last few seasons. They defeated the Saints in three straight campaigns and won two of those in Louisiana.
The health and success of running back Ameer Abdullah gives the Lions a balanced attack making them offensively capable. And for those that have bought into the Saints defense finally being better than bad I advise them to rethink this, especially after Sunday's high scoring affair.
The Lions defensive front will likely force Brees and company into their first mistake of the season. Detroit does have 12 sacks on the season, which is nearly as many as they had all of last year. I exaggerate to some degree but the unit did have less than an average two per game in 2016.
The Saints are not going to try and be who they are not by running the football on Sunday. They have had a week off to heal their wounds and game plan around the rush ends of the Lions. New Orleans, before their bye a week ago, had averaged 32.5 points and over 500 yards of offense against
Carolina and Miami, both considered above average defensive squads, and those points and yards came on the road, not at home under the roof in New Orleans.
It is not reasonable to expect the Saints to keep pace with their points per game allowed average this year of under 20, and their shutout of Miami is more about Jay Cutler than about the 'Orleans D. Additionally, when they squared off against Carolina and Newton the "Cam" was not yet ready to execute the offense after limited reps in August and early September.
The headlines this past week have exalted the Saints defense, and the unit holding Carolina to just 13 points while shutting out the Dolphins. Don't believe everything you see and only half of what you hear. Both of these two teams are offensive-strong and defensively-weak.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
****4% KC -4
Going undefeated in the National Football League is more difficult than being successful against the spread over the course of a 17-week regular season. Continue to play against Andy Reid and the Chiefs at your own risk.
Reid and his clubs have a history of being very successful in the early stages of seasons. The oddsmakers and opposing coordinators make the proper adjustments in combination with injuries and KC and their SU/ATS records usually begin to tumbler in October and moving forward. This typically comes at the hands of the unexpected and divisional foes. However, this weekend there are mitigating factors that make KC not only the play but a strong one.
Big Ben asked to be done this offseason but was cowered into returning for another season. If you haven't seen his regression, not only in the pocket but escaping such, you haven't paid attention.
The Steelers didn't just lose to an overvalued Jacksonville defense, they bought into the Jags success so far in '17, and played into the hands of the unit. They didn't just lose they were embarrassed.
You will hear and read that this is the perfect set up for those KC backers, that future Hall of Famer Big Ben is in a perfect position to rebound and beat up on the overrated KC defense. Steelers HC Mike Tomlin beat Reid twice last season, once at the Ketchup Bottle in a big way, and in the second at Arrowhead in the Divisional Playoff contest. Tomlin and the Steelers beat the Chiefs in KC without Big Ben and the offense finding the end zone.
That was then and now is now and underestimating this Reid team, under the motivation of veteran Alex Smith, is a mistake. There are those that call last week's Chiefs win over the Texans -- a mirage -- due to injuries to the Texans D that included JJ Watt. Those looking for holes in this undefeated KC team are justified in claiming such. Anytime the Chiefs are away from Arrowhead they are going to be suspect defensively without Eric Berry protecting the box.
Revenge outside of division play in the NFL is media candy for the most part but last year's two losses to the Curtain offers Reid, his staff and this team energy and purpose.. if they needed any. The Chiefs were skinned a year ago at Heinz trailing 29-0 at halftime and never in the game. A phantom holding call on the Chiefs offense as they were executing the winning point(s) after touchdown in January, resulted in a disappointing loss and not championship game for KC in Gillette.
The Chiefs are noticeably invisible to the public considering they are 15-2 since losing to Pittsburgh last season on the road and are an amazing 13-4 against the spread in that time period.
The run of success that the Chiefs have had since that debacle in Pittsburgh last season, FYI it was coach Reid’s worst loss as the KC HC, in combination with last year’s playoff defeat isn't an accident.
Arrowhead is one of the five toughest venues in the league to play at as a visitor. How hard is it to imagine the Chiefs scoring 24-plus points with the crowd behind them this weekend? How difficult is it to see Houston and his defense forcing Big Ben to the ground or into poor decision with pressure?
Roethlisberger home and away dichotomy is seriously defective, that while playing on the road. And this year's Pittsburgh offense hasn't played defensive monsters (@Cleveland, Minnesota, @Chicago, @Baltimore and Jacksonville) in the first four weeks. Yet the Steelers and Ben are averaging the lowest pass per yards attempt in his career (<7) and the defensive of Pitt is everything but threatening.
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Originally Posted by Onehunglow
