Saturday 10-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Marc Lawrence


Texas AM

[New York Knight]

SCOTT SPREITZER

Northwestern -3

I'm laying the points with Northwestern over Maryland on Saturday afternoon. Cluster injuries are bad no matter where they take place on a football team, but when it happens to the QB position, there's simply no way of making up ground and picking up the slack. Maryland was already down their top two QBs and now may have lost their third. Young Max Bortenschlager was forced into action the last few games due to injuries to those in front of him, but he's now banged-up after suffering a head injury. Bortenschlager is listed as questionable for this contest. If he can't go, the Terps will be down to their 4th string QB, a transfer from North Carolina. If he plays, we're fine with laying the points as the young signal caller has not intimidated any defensive backfields. Maryland was already ranked 122nd through the air and 108th in total yards gained per game. The Maryland pass defense isn't much better, allowing over 36 ppg. I expect the Terps to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Northwestern to climb back to .500 and claim their first conference win of the season. The Wildcats have covered 11 of their last 15 road games and we'll back them here. I'm backing Northwestern minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[New York Knight]

Doc’s Sports

#191 Take Missouri Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday, 7:30 pm SEC Network)

The Tigers offense finally came to life last week putting up 568 yards and 34 points in a losing effort against Kentucky. Georgia is for real this season but they are a more defensive team and does not have an explosive offense that can put up a ton of points week in week out. If Missouri does not allow the Bulldogs to score points on defense or special teams they should be able to cover this huge number. We used Oregon State last week as a free pick and this fits into the same category. Just do not see Georgia getting all that excited to blowout Missouri at home.

[New York Knight]

DENNIS MACKLIN

DMacks Free Play for NCAAF action Saturday, October 14, 2017, is on the Virginia Cavaliers

Props to former BYU ringmaster Bronco Mendenhall who has done a great job turning this downtrodden Wahoo program around. Virginia is 4-1 and comes off a nice win over a pretty good Duke team. UVa QB Benkert is a fiery fearless type and can throw the ball around (12 TDs) with anyone. North Carolina is in a 1-5 SU and ATS freefall that doesn't figure to get much better with Miami and V Tech on deck. Frosh QB Surrat is going to be good but is not getting much help as the Heels are finding life without Mitch Trubisky is not all that it's cracked up to be. Take Virginia.

[New York Knight]

CHASE DIAMOND

NCAA-F | Oct 14, 2017
Northwestern vs. Maryland

Maryland +3½

This game features the 2-3 Northwestern at the 3-2 Maryland. Watching most of Northwestern last week I really saw how bad this team is especially on offense. Maryland is home after getting blown out by OSU and won't be in a good mood when they take on Northwestern. Wild Cats are 0-2 on the road and I know Maryland is down to it's 4th QB but I think they have easily enough to keep it within 3. Maryland is 4-1 80% ATS versus teams with a losing record. Take Maryland for a 15* winner.

[New York Knight]

Teddy Davis

Kansas State +7

Last week was a chance for TCU to prove they were one of those team to be considered in the top 10. I wasn't very impressed as they were 2 touchdown favorites over West Virginia. They did win the game by 7 but were also out gained by over 100 yards.

Kansas St I was against and did get a lucky win on Texas but came away very impressed with the Wildcats. So the line is going up here because Ertz the Kansas St QB is out. If you watched the game vs Texas last week he was banged up then and the back up got some quality minutes and I liked what I saw from him handling that situation.

Let's no over react here and just take the points with a live home underdog. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas St come away with a win

[New York Knight]

Mark Franco

San Diego State - 7

Off to its best start since 1975 and armed with its highest ranking since 1978, unbeaten San Diego State has its sights set on a New Year's Six bowl. The 18th-ranked Aztecs face perhaps their biggest obstacle in that regard when they host Boise State in Mountain West play on Saturday night.

The Aztecs, led by Heisman Trophy contender Rashaad Penny, have won back-to-back Mountain West championships, but head coach Rocky Long says most people east of the Rocky Mountains "know who Boise State is and they don't know who the rest of us are. ... Those people associate our league with Boise because of history." Never mind, as Long is quick to point out, that the Broncos, also known for their home blue "Smurf Turf", have reached the Mountain West title game just once in the past four years and have lost five league games over the last two years.

Broncos are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Aztecs are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

[New York Knight]

Andrew Gold

Nebraska +24½

I know this will be a tough pill to swallow here taking Nebraska after what we have seen so far. I think people are forgetting the fact that Nebraska was tied with Wisconsin last week 17-17 in the 3rd quarter. They haven't completely thrown in the towel for the season and we are seeing a massive inflated line.

So yes Ohio St has got their offense up and running big time but they played Rutgers and Maryland the last two weeks. So the fact their offense looks good shouldn't surprise anyone. Remember game 1 this year they were favored by 20.5 @ Indiana. So now since Nebraska has looked poor they are worse than Indiana? I'm not buying it.

I think we see a big effort here as this is the biggest home underdog they have ever been.

[New York Knight]

Eric Schroeder

I had a chance to speak with a national reporter from Southern California, and he knows all about both USC and UCLA. He said he was planned on attending the Utah-Southern Cal game Saturday, because, in his words: "it's always a good game."

Then I looked at the number.

I'll take the double-digit road underdog.

I hate to say it, but I think the Trojans are falling off a bit, and appear to be less in sync than we saw at the beginning of the season. I'm not sure what has happened with quarterback Sam Darnold, but he's been sloppy of late, and that won't bode well against a feisty Utah defense.

Keep in mind Darnold made his first career start against Utah last season. He lost. And now, while he has passed for 1,705 yards with 12 touchdowns, he's also fired nine interceptions and has coughed up a handful of key fumbles.

Utah will be looking to avenge its first loss of the season, falling 23-20 to Stanford. And with this game being a prime-time contest on ABC, I think the Utes will be looking to prove themselves as a continued growing power from the Pac 12.

Also, with a win, Utah could return to the Top 25 rankings, and that will begin stirring the coffee of bowl committees.

Take the road pup here, as the Utes keep things under double digits.

2* UTAH

[New York Knight]

ASA

Mississippi State -23.5

We love this spot for the Bulldogs. They are rested coming off a bye and will be fully focused on this game for a few different reasons. First of all, going into the bye MSU lost @ Georgia and @ Auburn. Two straight losses should have them extra hungry here. Also nothing terrible about those losses as we are seeing UGA is probably a top 5 team and Auburn a top 10 team. Secondly, the Dogs lost @ BYU last year 28-21 in overtime. It was a game in which MSU had more first downs and more total yardage but lost. Their QB Fitzgerald, who is the starter again this year, had a poor game completing under 50% of his passes with 2 interceptions. You can bet he’s been waiting for this game. Before their two losses to Georgia and Auburn, the Bulldogs outscored their first 3 opponents 143-28. That included a 37-7 home win over LSU. No fluke in that game as they outgained the Tigers by nearly 200 yards. Speaking of the LSU Tigers, BYU just happened to play them as well this year. That was a 27-0 BYU loss and the Cougs were outgained by almost 400 yards. Put those numbers side by side of their one comparable opponent and there is no comparison. BYU’s offense is bad. They have been held to 13 points or less in 4 of their 5 games and they rank 2nd to last in college football in total offense (231 YPG). Their starting QB Tanner Mangum is not at 100% with a bad ankle. He was noticeably favoring his leg in their most recent 24-7 home loss to Boise State. If he isn’t effective or can’t go, BYU will call on freshman Critchlow who had his redshirt pulled last week and threw 4 passes vs Boise. Against a solid SEC defense, this BYU offense will do very little again this week. An early 12 PM ET start for a west coast team isn’t conducive either. This has the makings of a blowout.

[New York Knight]

BIG AL

Oklahoma -7.5

Last week, the Sooners lost by 7 points, as a 31-point favorite, at home, to Iowa State. So, they failed to cover the pointspread by a whopping 38 points. But that exceptionally poor performance sets up our play on this Saturday And one of the things I like to do is play on College Football teams off an upset loss, in which they failed to cover the spread by 35 or more points. And if our team is playing an opponent off a straight-up and against-the-spread win, then our system has gone 63% ATS since 1980. That’s one reason I really like the Sooners to bounce back. Another is that Oklahoma has quietly dominated away from home in the regular season when it plays winning teams. It’s 22-5 straight up and 21-6 ATS in this situation, including a perfect 10-0 SU/ATS when priced from -3.5 to -10 points.

[New York Knight]

Mike Anthony

Duke +7

5.87 YPC senior RB, Shaun Wilson- can absolutely move the ball and create big plays on the field for Duke to get into great position on the field. If the Blue Devils pick up the important 1st downs and Wilson picks up his typical tough yards - there is just no possible way Florida State can beat this Duke team. Ball control and on the field leadership has been key for Duke and their running game. Just not 100% sure the sad offense of FSU is the most efficient way to try to scare Duke and their struggle to get points on the board has been proven. Defensive Coordinator, Charles Kelly will be forced into getting more out of their mediocre defenders to put more work into their defense than Kelly will feel comfortable doing trying to stop the backs of Duke. The Seminoles only have 1 win over the season - and it was a against a poor running Wake Forest. Blue Devils are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Duke pulls the upset here at home.

[New York Knight]

DAVE COKIN

SOUTH CAROLINA +3

No reason not to come right back with South Carolina after winning last week with the Gamecocks. That also means continuing to go against Tennessee.

The main conversation in Vols country right now is not whether Butch Jones will be back, but rather who will be replacing him. The media has basically already fired Jones.

Normally, I might expect a big effort from a team off a 41-0 home loss and a subsequent bye week to get things right. But the program is a mess, and I wonder if the time off might actually be an additional negative.

There appears to be no enthusiasm right now, and if Tennessee gets off to another bad start on Saturday, that massive crowd is going to turn on them in a big way.

South Carolina did everything right last week against Arkansas and I have to figure their mental state is vastly superior here. I’ll take the FG with the Gamecocks.

[New York Knight]

Doc's Sports

NHL Chicago -150

Great situational spot to play the Blackhawks on Saturday as they host the Predators - the team that swept them in the first round of the playoffs last season. The Hawks were left with a terrible taste in their mouths after that series, and today's game was surely circled on the calendar. The Hawks retooled their roster in the off-season, and I really like the fact that they brought back Brandon Saad and Patrick Sharp. Those two guys fit perfectly with this team, and they never should have let them go in the first place. The Predators had some key losses over the summer, including the retirement of Mike Fisher. And people forget, while the Preds did make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, they barely made it into the postseason in the first place. As a result, I think they are a bit overrated heading into this season.

[New York Knight]

Robert Ferringo

Kansas +21

This Big 12 game looks to be a quintessential letdown spot for the Cyclones. They pulled a stunning upset last week over the Sooners, winning on the road as a 31-point underdog. Now they have to turn around and dress up as a three-touchdown favorite against a pathetic Kansas squad. Iowa State only beat the Jayhawks by a touchdown last year, and the underdog has been solid in this series, going 6-3 ATS the last nine times they faced off. Iowa State is on a 4-1 ATS run and Kansas on a 1-4 ATS slide, so it is easy to see which side the public is going to back. But this spread has slowly crept down since its open. I do think that Iowa State is going to rack up another win here and keep building momentum. But I think that Kansas will be able to do enough in garbage time to sneak in the back door.

[New York Knight]

Jason Sharpe

Pittsburgh +12

The N.C. State Wolfpack have rattled off 5 straight wins coming into this game, with victories over the likes of Florida State and a nice win over Louisville last Thursday. Tough spot here, though, going on the road and facing a hungry Pittsburgh squad in this one. The Panthers have struggled a little bit this season as they lost a ton of players off last year's squad. They have been tough at home of late, having won 8 of their last 10 games there, and should be able to keep things close in this one. Take Pittsburgh plus the points.

[New York Knight]

Alan Harris

Texas Tech +3.5

The Texas Tech Red Raiders will look to move to 5-1 on the season when they hit the road to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers at Mountaineer Field in Morgantown, WV, on Saturday afternoon. The Red Raiders have posted a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four games following an ATS win, and they are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games where they faced a team with a winning record. They have also covered the number in five of their last six road games and they are an impressive 9-3 ATS in their last twelve games following a straight up win by 20 points or more. The Mountaineers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here on Saturday as they have gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss and they are just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 versus a team with a winning % of .500 or higher. They have also failed to cover the number in 13 of their last 18 games played in the month of October for whatever reason, and they are an awful 6-21 ATS in their last 27 home games when facing a team with a winning record on the road. Throw in the fact that Texas Tech has gone 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two schools and we're going to take the points with them here in a game that we think they have a good chance to win outright in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon.

[New York Knight]

Raphael Esparza

Illinois -2.5

Memorial Stadium on Saturday early afternoon should see a home team 'W', and I see Illinois getting a much-needed conference win here. Last year Rutgers lost to the Illini at home 24-7, and I see the Scarlet Knights dropping back-to-back meetings to the Fighting Illini. Both teams come into this game struggling, but with Illinois getting this game at home I see them getting revenge after their last home game when Nebraska held them to 6 points. Rutgers is coming off a beat down two weeks ago to Ohio State 56-0, and I know Rutgers is coming off a bye week, but playing this game on the road the Knights again will struggle. Rutgers is 3-8 ATS when playing a team with a losing record and the Scarlet Knights are 1-4 ATS against conference opponents.

[New York Knight]

Harry Bondi

NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3.5

Northern Illinois is a profitable 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games and since 1992 they are 71-41 (63%) ATS away from home. What’s more, Northern Illinois has covered 11 of its last 16 in conference play and has absolutely dominated Buffalo, winning nine in a row in the series straight up while covering seven of those games. Northern Illinois has topped the 40-point plateau in the last three meetings against Buffalo, including an easy 44-7 victory last season at home as a 24-point favorite. Making matters worse for the Bills is that they come in off a gut-wrenching 71-68 loss to Western Michigan in a game that featured seven overtime sessions. The Bills defense allowed 645 yards of total offense in that game and is battered and bruised coming into this week’s game. Look for the physical Huskies to pound away at a tired Buffalo team and come home with another road win.

[New York Knight]

Joe Everett

BYU / Mississippi St Over 48½

The Cougars scheme is the same as it has always been with a run-heavy approach that has a lot of elements of a pro-style system with junior Tanner Mangum operating from under center throwing to multiple tight ends out of 12, 13 and 22 personnel packages. They have a real hammer at runningback in 255 pound freshman Ula Tolutau and a great complimentary back in Squally Canada. Their offensive line features a number of 22 and 23 year old players post mission, so look for BYU to run early and often here with shots to leading receiver tight end Matt Bushman off of play action. The Bulldogs are a physical odd front that operates predominantly out of the 3-4 alignment and they are limiting opponents to just 21.6 points but they have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in both of their last two outings, as well as giving up 80 combined points in those games. Brigham Young is not an aggressive offense but they are dangerous with their physical running game.

The Bulldogs have an extremely strong dual threat quarterback in junior Nik Fitzgerald, who has run for five rushing touchdowns while throwing for eight scores. Mississippi State runs a zone read scheme that keeps defenses guessing if junior runningback Aeris Williams or Fitzgerald will emerge from the pit with the ball. Dan Mullens’ offenses have always thrived with a mobile passer running the show and while Fitzmagic has struggled the last two games, those were against Georgia and Auburn. The Cougars run a 4-3 base defense, they have a stout front four rotation and a stud linebacker in senior Fred Warner who leads the team in tackling with 51 combined stops on the year. BYU has holes in their secondary, they are prone to big plays on the back end and the Bulldogs have some speed receivers to take advantage of that; namely Keith Mixon and Deddrick Thomas who both average roughly 15 yards per catch.

The last time these two teams played, BYU won a 28-21 home game just last year so Mississippi State will certainly have revenge on their mind in this rematch. We have lost some value from the opener with the movement going up from 46½ to the 48½ total where it currently sits. The forecast in Starkville is an ideal 87 degrees with clear skies and with the homefield advantage as well as a very effective running threat at quarterback, I’ll call for a big Bulldogs blowout with a 38-17 total that should hit the over by the start of the fourth quarter.

Virginia / North Carolina Over 50½

The Cavaliers have really turned it on offensively with Kurt Benkert coming out of the woodwork to pass for 13 touchdowns in just five games. Robert Anae is running an up tempo system and their offensive line has really turned it on as of late with 128 rushing yards or more in each of their last three games. North Carolina’s defense is beyond bend but don’t break, they’ve broken and the overlying concern is their inability to stop the run with 745 rushing yards allowed in their last two games combined. Junior runningback Jordan Ellis already has 408 yards on the ground along with five rushing scores to go along with receiving touchdown.

Tar Heels co-offensive coordinators Gunter Brewer and Chris Kapilovic run a spread timing based offensive scheme that gets the football out fast and mixes in a lot of zone read concepts to take advantage of dual threat quarterback Chazz Surratt who has already rushed for four touchdowns and thrown for another six scores. While Virginia has held opponents to just 21.2 points per game, their defense has had issues stopping the pass after allowing six touchdowns through the air in their last four games. North Carolina has experienced a rash of injuries throughout their roster but most notably losing Austin Proehl was a real shot to this inexperienced wide receiver corps. However, redshirt sophomore Anthony Ratliff-Williams and Vanderbilt transfer playing well considering the conditions.

Although it will be overcast with a small percentage of rain, the weather forecast doesn’t appear to be an issue at a cloudy 80 degrees for game time in Chapel Hill. This series has been dominated by the Tar Heels who have won the last seven meetings and five of those seven have gone UNDER the number but four of those seven have also seen 50 or more points scored. The line has dropped significantly from 55 all the way down to 50½ and while there’s not much more room for this total to go, I’d still wait to play this game a little closer to kickoff for some closing line value. We’re looking for a big Virginia win with a 38-24 type of final in this ACC rivalry here.

Purdue / Wisconsin Over 50

Most would assume an UNDER with these two teams and their offensive identities, but both teams can score with Wisconsin averaging 40 points per game and Purdue has scored 28 or more points in four of their five games this year. The Boilermakers have been given a complete makeover on offense with the team controlling the line of scrimmage and keeping things simple for quarterbacks David Blough and Elijah Sindelar. Lafayette native Jackson Anthrop is leading the team in receiving as a true freshman and junior runningback DJ Knox will now have to lead the way with sophomore Tario Fuller out with a foot injury. Wisconsin’s odd front will create havoc in the backfield at home but they can be passed on, as Northwestern found out with their three passing touchdowns against the Badgers two weeks ago.

The Badgers are running the ball right over teams with star runningback Johnathan Taylor, what’s even more impressive is that the true freshman leads the entire Big-Ten with 767 rushing yards. Wisconsin has run for 234 yards or more in four of their five games to start the year and they have scored 31 or more points in every single outing thus far. The Badgers operate out of a pro style run-heavy scheme with a bevy of talented offensive linemen and an assortment of bailout options in the passing game for sophomore Alex Hornibrook. Their senior tight end Troy Fumagalli is as reliable as they come. He excels in short yardage and on third down, converting and keeping the chains moving despite having only nine fingers at birth. The Boilers also have a new look on defense with former WKU defensive assistant changing the culture and instilling a real physical mentality throughout that side of the ball.

There are some heavy winds in the forecast at 4:00pm for Camp Randall but that should affect the Badgers offensive gameplan and regardless of how the quarterbacks adjust, both of these teams will find ways to adjust. The line moved in our favor from 51½ to 50 total points, so there’s potential for this number to keep dropping as we approach kickoff on Saturday. Wisconsin has won eleven in a row in the series and in the last six meetings between these two teams, the OVER has gone 4-2 with five of the six seeing fifty or more points. This one won’t sail over the number but a final in the range or a 38-24 Wisconsin win is right where I expect this game to finish.