Saturday 10-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[New York Knight]

Wunderdog

Eastern Michigan/Army

Under 46.5

Army needed a big game last week, and going to Texas where they have played their best football over the years was just what the doctor ordered. It got the Black Knights to 4-2 on the season as they quest for a second straight Bowl game appearance. Army has run the flex-bone option for years, and it is no secret, but they have a lot of success, melt the clock and close games. The defense has usually lagged behind, until last year when they allowed just 19.8 points per game. They have come back this year to do just about the same thing as opponents score 19.2 points per game against them, which becomes 15.4 ppg if you take out the game vs. Ohio State. Eastern Michigan lost a lot from their offense of a year ago, but the defense is vastly improved, and all five of their games have played UNDER with no team topping the 27 point mark in those games. This will be a game with a fast moving clock, limited plays, and two rock solid defenses.

[New York Knight]

Bruce Marshall

NC State

Some Pitt backers are beginning to wonder if HC Pat Narduzzi is the second coming of the failed Foge Fazio regime of the mid '80s. Now Narduzzi has had to switch QBs again after USC transfer Max Browne went down with arm injury last week. And if NCS's gnarly DL and NFL-bound DE Bradley Chubbb can limit Lamar Jackson's damage as last week, doubt Browne's caddy DiNucci does much better. The heat has dissipated underneath Wolfpack HC Dave Doeren after five straight wins.

[New York Knight]

Andrew Lange

Hawaii -17

If there's a team ever in need of a bye week, it's the San Jose State Spartans. San Jose State has played seven straight games and finally gets a break after this week's trip to Hawaii. The schedule at times has been daunting but the Spartans did open Mountain West play against three average to below average squads with two of those contests at home. They failed to put up much of a fight in any of the three. Against Utah State, SJSU was outgained by 428 yards. They allowed over 8 yards per play in a 41-13 loss to UNLV. And last week were held to 205 yards in a 27-10 home loss to Fresno State. The Spartans, who are trying to play up-tempo football, have turned the ball over 24 times and have a -9 turnover margin over their last three contests. With a bye week looming, they must first travel to face Hawaii, a team they lost to a home last season, 34-17. It’s a scenario where we could very easily see the Spartans “pack it in” if they get down early.

The Warriors haven't won a game since Week 2 but have really been up against it from a schedule perspective with three out of their last four on the road. The offense has had no trouble moving the football (6.69 yards per play) but the defense have been repeatedly gashed (1,176 yards allowed last two games). They've also dealt with various suspensions and the resignation of their offensive line coach. Saturday's game however is an ideal cure-all situation as the Warriors will have obvious advantages on both sides of the football. I look for Hawaii to jump out early in this one as the recommendation is to split your wager both first half -10 and full game -17.

[New York Knight]

STEPHEN NOVER

NCAA-F | Oct 14, 2017
Oklahoma vs. Texas

Texas +9

Oklahoma has been favored by double-digits against Texas in this Red River Rivalry matchup each of the last four years. The Longhorns have covered each time, including last year losing, 45-40. Texas is improved this season and better coached with the change from Charlie Strong to Tom Herman. The point spread is smaller to reflect that, but it's still above a touchdown. I believe that brings solid value to backing Texas. The Longhorns have recovered from their opening week debacle against Maryland. They haven't lost against the spread since then in four games yielding less than 14 points in regulation. Texas won at Iowa State, 17-7, two weeks ago. Oklahoma just lost, 38-31, as better than a four-touchdown home favorite against the Cyclones. That loss has to shake up the Sooners' confidence, if not cast a seed of doutbt about their invincibility. Texas has scored at least 40 points in three of its five games. Oklahoma has a banged-up secondary and lacks linebacker depth. Iowa State scored on its final five possessions against Oklahoma. Texas sophomore Collin Johnson is one of the best wide receivers in college. He had 191 receiving yards against USC, which has a much better secondary than Oklahoma. The Sooners defense right now just can't be trusted. The Sooners need Baker Mayfield to come up big. He's certainly capable of that. Texas, though, is second in the Big 12 in sacks and in rush defense. I don't see Oklahoma running for 282 yards on Texas like it did in last year's game. This is always a physical, emotional game. Oklahoma is Texas' biggest rival. The Longhorns can make a huge statement with a victory here. I can easily envision a last-possession type of game so I'll take more than a touchdown.

[New York Knight]

RED DOG SPORTS

Soccer | Oct 14, 2017
Anzhi vs. FC Ural

FC Ural -125

Free soccer play takes place on Saturday in Russia. Take FC Ural -125.
Anzhi 0
FC Ural 1

[New York Knight]

FREDDY WILLS

Cincinnati +24

This line is a bit high, South Florida really hasn’t played well offensively or up to expectations this year. Their defense has been completely dominant and has resulted in them being huge favorites, but South Florida has had the #129th ranked strength of schedule. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has already faced Michigan, Navy, and Miami Ohio all on the road. Then they faced Marshall and Central Florida at home all good teams. South Florida hasn’t faced a top 60 offense or defense. Cinci has already faced the #2 ranked offense, and the #1 ranked defense at different points this season.

Last week against Central Florida, Cincinnati lost 51-23, but they only allowed 515 yards which usually doesn’t equate to 51 points. Central Florida’s offense at this point far exceeds South Florida. Cinci’s offense was able to put up 391 yards and scored 23 points, and I think they can have some success against South Florida who gave up 31 points to East Carolina last week and 20+ points several times this season to teams who aren’t very good offensively.

South Florida’s offense is extremely one dimensional, and it is the reason they struggle in the red zone. Cincinnati has been very good in red zone play allowing 57% TD percentage and they have been very good allowing 36% on third downs. South Florida 57% in the red zone for a TD% and just 43% on third down offense. Both numbers you’d expect to be higher given the competition they have faced with defenses ranked an average 90th in yards per play allowed. South Florida is also highly penalized at 10 per game and have relied heavily on 16 forced turnovers to get their big victories.

Luke Fickell is a good coach taking over here, and a good defensive mind. Take out the Navy game and this defense has been good against the run. With South Florida’s Quinton Flowers completing just 52.4% of his passes that makes the game plan a bit easier here.

[New York Knight]

PURE LOCK

Pure Lock's FREE CFB play Saturday 10-14-17

San Diego State -6

[New York Knight]

PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER

CFL | Oct 14, 2017
Toronto vs. Edmonton

Toronto+7½ -125

FREE CFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Road dogs of +4 to +13 and Home dogs between -1 and +2 that finished last season at least 2 games below .500 are 88-44-4 ATS. Active on the Argonauts this week!

[New York Knight]

Teddy Covers

UCLA -2

Teddy is primed to deliver the goods in the NFL this week, locked and loaded with three rock solid Sunday winners along with four strong college football winners for Saturday! Don't miss a single 'right side' cash!

Bye weeks are very meaningful in college football. Banged up players get a chance to get healthy. Coaches have extra time to shore up flaws and prepare gameplans. Players get a much needed break and tend to come back with full focus. As we approach the college football season’s halfway point, we should take note to adjust power ratings up a notch or two for teams coming off their break.

UCLA is in that exact situation this week. The Bruins faced a brutal non-conference slate, including Texas A&M and Memphis. They opened their PAC-12 slate with Stanford and Colorado. The Arizona team they’ll face on Saturday Night is as weak as any foe they’ve seen all year, with the lone exception of Hawaii. And it’s surely worth noting that the Bruins beat Hawaii 56-23, covering the spread as 24 point favorites.

The Bruins defense currently ranks #128 in the country against the run, allowing 284 yards per game and 6.3 yards per carry, truly awful numbers. But those season long stats don’t tell the true story of what we can expect from UCLA on Saturday. Injured defensive starters Jaelan Phillips, Lokeni Toailoa and Dechaun Holiday are all expected back on the field this week; a SIGNIFICANT upgrade for their Front Seven on ‘D’.

That matters, a lot, because Arizona might have found themselves a QB last week. Sophomore Khalil Tate was mostly a running threat as a true frosh last year, attempting only 45 pass attempts for the season. Tate was injured over the summer and didn’t get a chance to compete for the starting job. But he’s healthy now and coming off a truly brilliant starting debut, rushing for more than 300 yards while compiling a QB rating of 217.2, throwing only one incomplete pass all day.

Can Tate do it again, or is he just a one hit wonder? Here’s what UCLA head coach Jim Mora had to say: “It’s like playing a wildcat offense with a quarterback that can throw. We have to play hard but play with patience, play with speed but play with patience, and that’s sometimes a difficult combination. But we’ve been working really hard on it, and our guys have a great understanding of what we’re up against.”

UCLA’s defense should be better with three key starters back. They’ve got film on Tate to work with and extra time to prep for Rich Rodriguez’s attack. The Bruins own offense is loaded with quality skill position talent, and QB Josh Rosen is still very much alive to be the first QB chosen in the draft next spring. And Arizona’s defense is a long, long way from being an elite unit, capable of shutting the Bruins down.

Let’s not forget about the head-to-head matchup record between Jim Mora and RichRod! In five previous meetings between these two head coaches, Mora is 5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS, covering the spread by an AVERAGE of more than 19 points per game. Now that’s a track record worthy of support!

[New York Knight]

Matt Josephs

Nevada +24½

The Wolf Pack are flying high after picking up their first win of the season last time out against Hawaii. Nevada showed some offensive balance and just enough defense to win that one. Colorado State is coming off three straight weeks on the road and there's always an adjustment to playing at home early on. The Rams also have a road trip at New Mexico next week so maybe focus could be an issue. CSU's defense can be beaten. Nevada has covered 10 of their last 19 conference games. I think this one is a bit too high.

[New York Knight]

Oskeim Sports

North Carolina +4

These teams are heading in opposite directions as Virginia has won and covered three straight games, whereas the Tar Heels have lost and failed to cover three consecutive games. The Cavaliers have caught the attention of bettors after pulling off back-to-back upsets over Boise State (42-23; 14-point underdogs) and Duke (28-21; 2-point underdogs). However, Bronco Mendenhall’s squad has played one of the easiest schedules in the nation through the first six weeks.

Hosting William & Mary, Indiana and Connecticut is hardly a difficult task, and Virginia actually lost to the Hoosiers by seventeen points. In contrast, the Tar Heels have played a substantially more difficult schedule, including games against California, Louisville, Duke, Georgia Tech and Notre Dame. The concern I have with North Carolina is the fact that it has fallen short of the market’s expectations in five of the first six weeks of 2017.

Virginia is 0.5 yards per play better than average from the line of scrimmage (0.1 yards per play better than average offensively and 0.4 yards per play better than average defensively). The Cavaliers’ pedestrian attack won’t be able to exploit a subpar North Carolina defense that is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (6.1 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yards per play against a mediocre stop unit).

The Tar Heels’ secondary has been really bad this season (7.5 yards per pass play to a group of quarterbacks that would combine to average just 6.6 yards per pass attempt against a mediocre secondary), but Virginia’s passing game is well below average and doesn’t have the big play ability to take advantage of North Carolina’s defensive shortcomings. Overall, Virginia possesses a 0.4 yards per play advantage from the line of scrimmage over the Tar Heels’ defense.

North Carolina possesses a decent offense that is averaging 25.3 points and 373 total yards per game against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yards per play to a mediocre attack. It’s a relatively even matchup when North Carolina has the ball and I expect the Tar Heels to be extremely focused on what would be a season-salvaging win before the home faithful. Let’s also note that Virginia is traveling for just the second time this season and has not faced a conference foe on foreign soil.

With respect to special teams, North Carolina is ranked 8th-nationally in net punting (42.55), 24th in kickoff returns (24.96) and 46th in punt returns (8.92), all of which give the Tar Heels better field position in this game. North Carolina also has an above-average red zone defense. From a technical standpoint, North Carolina is a profitable 9-3 ATS in its last twelve October affairs, 23-8 ATS at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5 ATS in its last sixteen games following a double-digit home loss and 31-15-1 ATS after failing to eclipse 20 points in its previous contest.

Finally, my math model indicates that the wrong team is favored (makes North Carolina a 2-point favorite). With Virginia standing at 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series, grab the points with the desperate home underdog and invest with confidence.

[New York Knight]

DOUG UPSTONE

Iowa State-22½

As usual, Kansas is not having a good football season. The Jayhawks travel to Ames to take in Iowa State who is off monster upset of Oklahoma. On Saturday teams like Kansas rushing for 4.3 to 4.8 yards per carry, against an average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPR), after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in two straight games are 4-23 ATS since 2013.

[New York Knight]

BOBBY CONN

1* Free Play on Kansas State +6½ -110

[New York Knight]

JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Louisiana-Monroe -7

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks have been flying under the radar this season in the Sun Belt. They have gone 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in five games. Their two losses came to two very good teams in Memphis (29-37) and Southern Miss (17-28), so they were competitive in both contests. They went on the road and beat a good Lafayette team 56-50 as 4-point dogs, and won 45-27 at Texas State as 5.5-point favorites. They also covered as 7-point home favorites in a 51-43 win over Coastal Carolina. Georgia State clearly isn't very good, and that was evident in the opener when it lost 10-17 at home to FCS Tennessee State as a 15-point favorite. They lost 56-0 to Penn State, and their only two wins came against two of the worst teams in the country in Charlotte and Coastal Carolina. The Warhawks are averaging 39.6 points per game this season, and when I'm laying points, I like backing high-powered offenses like this one. Georgia State, which is scoring just 16.2 points per game, cannot keep up. Give me Louisiana-Monroe.

[New York Knight]

CHIP CHIRIMBES

Rebels (+) over Falcons

Air Force is off a hard fought loss to Navy where they out-gained the Midshipman but over 100 yards. UNLV has shown the ability to move the ball and score averaging 266 yards per game on the ground but they haven't tackled many people yet this season. The Falcons are surrendering 250 yards per game rushing and UNLV has a pair of future pro's in quarterback/running back Armini Rogers and halfback Lexington Thomas. Take the REBELS!

[New York Knight]

JEFF ALEXANDER

Bet - Michigan -7 & UNDER 47

I like this Indiana team, but they are simply getting too much respect at home against the Wolverines. This may have been a spot where the Wolverines would have slipped up if they pulled off the win over in-state rival Michigan State last week, but the fact they lost that game is going to have this team pissed off and looking to remind everyone that they are still a factor in this loaded Big Ten East race. Let's also not overlook the fact that the Spartans are a very good team. Indiana played two of the big boys out of the East so far. While they were competitive against Ohio State at home, they still lost by 28. The other was a game at Penn State, where they lost by 31. Michigan doesn't have the offensive fire-power as those two teams, but are better defensively. I look for Indiana to struggle to score and the Wolverines offense to just enough to secure a win by more than a touchdown and also keep this game under the total of 47, something along the lines of 24-14.

[New York Knight]

Mike Wynn

Free Play: CFB South Florida -23½ Over Cincinnati

[New York Knight]

Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: UNLV/Air Force over 64 1/2

[New York Knight]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Air Force Falcons - 7 1/2

[New York Knight]

Platinum Plays

Free Pick: CFB the Hawaii Warriors -17½ over San Jose St