Sunday 10-15-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NFL

Sunday, October 15

Sunday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Giants at Broncos

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-11.5, 39.5)

The season is turning into a massive sinkhole for the New York Giants, dragging down their playoff chances while swallowing up their best players due to injury. One of three winless teams in the league, the Giants will travel to one of the NFL's most difficult venues when they visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night.

New York has lost its last three games by a combined 10 points but Sunday's 22-17 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers was by far the most damaging, with starting wide receivers Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall suffering season-ending ankle injuries. “We have to move on,” said quarterback Eli Manning. “Obviously, whenever you lose players, you have to make adjustments and other guys have to step up. Nothing has changed in that fact." Denver, on the other hand, is rested and refreshed following its bye but cannot afford a letdown as it tries to keep pace with undefeated Kansas City in the AFC West. "We're in a good spot right now," Broncos coach Vance Joseph said after a Wednesday practice that he termed the team's "best" of the year. "We have to continue to do more and push our guys to continue to focus and push forward and get better every day."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Giants (+5) - Broncos (-1.5) + home field (-3) = Broncos -9.5

LINE HISTORY: The Broncos opened as 10-point home chalk and money coming in on the home team has pushed that number up to 11.5. The total hit the betting board at 40.5 and has been bet down two points to 38.5. View the complete line history here.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: ’The Broncos have had a favorable schedule this season as they coming off a bye week and have now played four of their first five games at home in the thin air and altitude. The Giants' offense has struggled this season and will once again be without their star wide receiver Odell Beckham, Jr. However, all of these elements have been factored into the line and that is the reason the Broncos are a big double-digit favorite.’ - Steve Merril

WHAT BOOKS SAY: ‘All of the sharp action came very early, and very heavy. We moved 2.5 points toward Denver in less than 24 hours. It’s a beleaguered Giants team and the public is fully aware of that fact so they are fading New York as well. Not surprisingly, the under has seen sharp support and we’re not in the 30s with the total, which will probably continue to plummet.’ Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu.

INJURY REPORT:

Giants - RB Orleans Darkwa (Probable, Calf), QB Eli Manning (Probable, Neck), DE Olivier Vernon (Questionable, Ankle), C Weston Richburg (Questionable, Concussion), DE Cap Capi (Questionable, Undisclosed), LB Jonathan Casillas (Questionable, Stinger), DT Jay Bromley (Questionable, Undisclosed), S Landon Collins (Questionable, Ankle), RB Paul Perkins (Doubtful, Ribs), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (Out Indefinitely, Suspension), WR Sterling Shepard (Late October, Ankle), WR Brandon Marshall (I-R, Ankle), WR Odell Beckham Jr. (I-R, Ankle), WR Dwayne Harris (I-R, Foot), LB J.T. Thomas (Questionable Week 12, Groin).

Broncos - WR Cody Latimer (Questionable, Knee), QB Paxton Lynch (Out Indefinitely, Shoulder), TE Jake Butt (Questionable Week 9, Knee), QB Chad Kelly (Questionable Week 9, Wrist), LB Shane Ray (Questionable, Week 9, Wrist).

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): New York also lost a third wide receiver, Dwayne Harris, to a season-ending injury and Sterling Shepard was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving the team scrambling to fill the holes by re-signing Tavarres King and Darius Powe. Running back Paul Perkins also was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that ranks 30th in the league (77.8 yards). Manning, who could be staring at Roger Lewis Jr. as his No. 1 wideout, has tossed eight scoring passes and five interceptions while completing a career-best 67.8 percent of his defense. Discord has hit the team with the indefinite suspension of cornerback Dominque Rodgers-Cromartie.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 3-1 O/U): Denver certainly has its vulnerablities, losing at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye, but it shredded another NFC East foe in a 42-17 shellacking of Dallas in Week 2. There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is yielding a league-low 260.8 yards per game and ranks No. 1 against the run (50.8). Former seventh-round draft pick Trevor Siemian has thrown for seven touchdowns versus four interceptions while averaging 222 yards per game, but he has a dangerous wide receiver tandem in Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas. C.J. Anderson has at least 20 rushing attempts in three of four games and averages 4.5 yards per tote.

TRENDS:

* Giants are 2-9-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

* Broncos are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Under is 6-1 in Giants last 7 games following a ATS loss.

* Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 games in October.

* Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home Broncos at a rate of 62 percent and the Over is picking up 57 percent of the totals action.

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NFL opening line report: Winless, broken Giants travel to Denver for Week 6
Patrick Everson

“You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room. They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers."

Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)

Philadelphia is off to a solid start behind second-year quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trampled Arizona in Week 5, winning 34-7 as a 6-point home favorite, with Wentz throwing four touchdown passes.

Cam Newton weathered a media storm of his own making last week, then helped guide Carolina to a 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS mark, as well. The Panthers edged Detroit 27-24 as a 2-point road underdog Sunday.

“A great matchup that will really give us some insight as to how good these teams really are,” Cooley said. “Carolina has been quite impressive the last couple of weeks, more so than we thought they were capable of. The Eagles have been on the radar all year, but have been even more dominant than anticipated. These teams are very close in the power ratings, so we assign the home team some advantage and see where the bettors go with it.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)

Kansas City is the league’s lone undefeated team, and Alex Smith is playing like an MVP candidate. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) dropped Houston 42-34 laying 2 points in the Week 5 Sunday nighter, getting three TD passes from Smith – who has no interceptions this year.

Pittsburgh entered the season among teams with the shortest odds to make the Super Bowl, but hasn’t looked anything like a championship squad. On Sunday, the Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) were 7.5-point home faves against Jacksonville and got run out of their own building, 30-9.

Since K.C. was in the Sunday night contest, Bookmaker is waiting until Monday to post this line.

“If the Chiefs play as expected Sunday night, and nothing out of the ordinary happens on the injury front, we’ll look to make them around field-goal favorites,” Cooley said. “The Steelers aren’t the team they displayed in Week 5, but there is certainly something amiss in Pittsburgh.”

New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-9)

New York went 11-5 SU in the regular season last year to advance to the playoffs. Through five weeks of this season, the Giants are like Jacques Cousteau, still “In Search Of” their first victory. (You youngsters, go look up that reference if you need to.)

The Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) got an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown catch to take a 22-17 lead over San Diego early in the fourth quarter Sunday. But New York didn’t score the rest of the way, lost Beckham to a broken ankle and lost the game 27-22 as a 3-point home chalk.

Meanwhile, Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 Week 4 victory laying 3.5 points at home against Oakland.

“You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room,” Cooley said. “They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers. Going on the road to play in the altitude against a great defense is not what this team needed. Early action from the pros has moved this to -10.”

In fact, later Sunday night, the line jumped to 10.5 at Bookmaker.eu.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (no line)

Green Bay looks to be firing on all cylinders, certainly on offense, after reaching 35 points two weeks in a row. On Sunday at Dallas, the Packers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trailed 21-6 in the second quarter, but climbed out of that hole and left the Big D with a 35-31 victory catching 2.5 points. Aaron Rodgers capped the comeback with a 12-yard TD pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining.

Minnesota (2-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 5 work to do, traveling to Chicago in the Monday night game. The Vikings should have quarterback Sam Bradford back tonight, but until that game wraps, Bookmaker.eu will hold off on setting the Pack-Vikes opening line.

“It appears as if Bradford is going to play Monday night, so we’ll see how he looks throwing the ball and moving around in the pocket,” Cooley said. “Still, it’s unlikely we’ll make Minnesota a favorite. Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now, and the betting public is fully aware of that fact. The Vikings will likely be short home ‘dogs when this line is released Monday night.”

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Wiseguys are advising that these Week 6 NFL lines are going to move
Art Aronson

The Patriots will have a few extra days to get ready for the Jets after playing Thursday night in Week 5.

Game to bet now

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-3)

What's up with Ben Roethlisberger? The face of the Steelers franchise for the last decade seems like he needs a career change, if his comments after last Sunday’s no-touchdown, five-interception game are any indication.

“Maybe I don’t have it anymore,” the QB said after Ben and the Steelers were roasted at home by Jacksonville.

Whatever it is that Roethlisberger has managed to lose, he had better find it in a hurry because the undefeated Chiefs are waiting. From a record standpoint (the Steelers are still in first place in the mediocre AFC North) the 3-point line might make sense, but expect KC money to soon flood in as Roethlisberger’s comments make their way into the consciousness of the betting public. KC is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, and betting on streaks to end have depleted a lot of bank accounts over the years.

Game to wait on

New England at New York Jets (+9.5)

Tank this, say the Jets, who have to be considered the biggest surprise in the league so far. At 3-2 the NYJ are more than in the mix in a solid AFC East. And if New York can get it done against a shaky Patriots team this coming Sunday, it’ll be game on in the division.

That’s a big if, and the entire NFL is waiting for Bill Belichick to straighten out his defense and begin to dominate again. The Pats will have had a few extra days to get ready for this one after their OK-but-not-great performance last Thursday at Tampa Bay.

The Jets, meanwhile, have taken full advantage of their easy schedule and have put together a three-game win streak. It might be useful to sit this one out for a bit and wait for a line move. If heavy money comes down on NE, books might adjust the vig if they don’t want to take on the extra half-point to make it a 10-point line.

Total to watch

Miami at Atlanta (47.5)

Dead last. That’s where the Dolphins rank in offense, which about where a team that can’t pass the ball or run the ball should be. The fact that Miami is 2-2 is somewhat of a minor miracle, and a testament to the team’s ability to stop the run.

Whether they can stop Atlanta’s passing attack is another question, however. The Dolphins will probably have to score in the 20's to cover the 47.5, and that’s a tall order for a club that has barely averaged 10 points per game so far.

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NFL Betting Stats Update:


Road Teams: 9-5 ATS in Week 5 (40-33-1 on season)

Dogs: 7-6 ATS (42-32-1)

Road Dogs: 6-3 ATS (27-19-1)