Profit On Sports
NFL Chiefs -3
Profit On Sports
NFL Chiefs -3
Insider Sports Report
CFB Arkansas St. -12
Top Rank Sports Picks
NFL Chiefs under 47
Elite Sports Picks
NBA Thunder -12
Monster Sports Picks
NHL Dallas -150
Doc's Picks
MLB Cubs under 7
Raphael Esparza
Arkansas St. (-12) over UL-Lafayette
The home team has won the last three meetings and right now what I have seen from the Arkansas State Red Wolves at home covering this big number should be no problem. Arkansas State is coming off an easy home against Coastal Carolina 51-17, and in their last two home games the Red Wolves have only given up a total of 20 points. Lafayette has won two straight games coming into this road game, but both the teams they beat were not the same level as the Red Wolves, and I see the Arkansas State offense being too much for the Ragin' Cajuns to handle. Arkansas State has covered 7 straight home games and Thursday night number eight should be no problem.
Robert Ferringo
Houston (-3) over Memphis
I think that Memphis is a soft 5-1. They got slaughtered in their first road game against a comparable team, losing 40-13 at Central Florida. Beyond that they have lucky wins over UCLA and Navy and unimpressive wins against UL-Monroe and Southern Illinois. They are facing a Houston team that has equal talent and that has played well at home. Houston is also in a prime bounce back situation after an embarrassing loss at Tulsa last week. The Cougars were up 10-0 in that game, marching to 17-0, when a turnover changed the tide. They turned it over three times and got rolled in the second half en route to a shocking 45-17 loss. The home team has won three of four meetings, Houston has won six of the last seven meetings, and the Cougars are 4-2 ATS in the last six against the Tigers. Memphis is just 2-10 ATS against teams above .500 and just 2-8 ATS after a win. I don't love this Houston team. But I think this is a good spot for them to make a statement.
Larry Ness
Chicago vs. Toronto
Pick: Toronto -12.5
The Toronto Raptors kept their core intact over the summer and plan to make another run at an Eastern Conference crown behind DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. However, one has to wonder if the Raptors have 'maxed out' with the current make up of their team. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bulls, who visit the Raptors in the season opener for both clubs on Thursday, have an entirely new look after veterans Jimmy Butler, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade have all "moved on." .
Chicago does not have a player 30 or older on its roster plus will also be without power forward Nikola Mirotic for an extended period after he was hospitalized on Tuesday following a practice altercation with teammate Bobby Portis that left him with a broken jaw. Mirotic had won the starting job at power forward during training camp but is expected to be sidelined four to six weeks and might require surgery. Portis was suspended by the team for eight games. The two have had a long-standing feud and their absences create a hole at power forward. Rookie Lauri Markkanen (Arizona) will start for now, according to Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg (Cristiano Felicio is the other power forward). Chicago has high hopes for former NBA dunk champion Zach LaVine but he's recovering from ACL surgery.
Toronto agreed to a three-year, $100 million extension with Kyle Lowry over the summer, ending any speculation that the team would break up the Lowry-DeRozan "Dynamic Duo.". The Raptors also added another perimeter threat in swingman C.J. Miles and will get a full season from power forward Serge Ibaka. The Raptors also signed SG Norman Powell to a four-year, $42 million extension earlier this month. In stark contrast to Chicago, the Raptors are talking about how their familiarity has bred content. "So, when you have that sense of comfort -- knowing guys as individuals on and off the court -- you have a different comfort zone when you go out there in the big moments, understanding each other," DeRozan said. "That kind of goes a long way and it actually wins you games in the NBA. You can tell teams that have been together for years. ... They can pull out victories over more talented teams. Things like that definitely go a long way."
That's all fine against teams like Chicago but we'll have to see how Toronto fares against the elite Eastern Conference teams. The Raptors have gone an impressive 60-22 SU at home the last two regular seasons, while the Bulls, with better teams than what they'll send out on the court tonight, have gone 16-25 SU on the road in each of the last two years. Lay the points!
Don Anthony
Knicks vs. Thunder
Play: Knicks +13
We are also on the Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 53.3 wins this season as our TOP NBA Season Win total.
Simply put, this is the Carmelo pick. One: I believe the Knicks are going to get up for this game to give a little pay back to Melo. Two: I believe it's going to take awhile for the Thunder to gel. Should the Thunder win? Absolutely. But 13 points is a LOT to lay in the first game of the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
OAKLAND +129 over Kansas City
On paper, this looks like an easy rebound for quarterback Alex Smith and company, as he’s owned the Raiders by going 9-1 in his last 10 games and putting up 19 touchdowns to just four picks in those contests. This includes five straight since Derek Carr became the Raiders starter so it’s not like the Chiefs dominance can be attributed to weak Oakland QBs. Last week at home to the Steelers, Kansas City suffered its first loss of the season. The Chiefs looked to be in trouble from the get-go and star rookie runner Kareem Hunt had his worst rushing day of the season with just 21 yards. To give you an idea how bad it was, Smith had a better yards per carry than Hunt and the longest run of the day at 11 yards. While we are not here to discredit what the Chiefs have done through the first six weeks of the season, we also know that the market has forgiven them for a lousy effort against some outstanding talent in Pittsburgh. That game was being set up as a dangerous one for K.C. and as it turned out, it was. The Chiefs are without question the favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. Surely, they’re not going to drop two straight, especially against a sinking ship like the Raiders, right? Before you think along those lines, consider that Thursday night games are unpredictable. They have featured flat teams often ever since the game was introduced. It’s not a normal week at all and this line is screaming out to be very careful about backing the chalk. We’ll heed those warnings.
While the Raiders were a popular preseason pick by many, we were skeptical about their ability to repeat last year’s stellar season that ended with an injury to star quarterback Derek Carr and a playoff loss to the Texans that featured probably the worst QB matchup the NFL postseason has ever seen between Oakland’s Connor Cook and Houston’s Brock Osweiler. The Raiders’ preseason hype train was real and it was loaded with pundits willing to tout that Oakland might challenge the Patriots for supremacy in the AFC. Oh how the mighty have fallen. At 2-4, Oakland looks cooked. When a team is left for dead that’s when we like to come and pick the bones. The Raiders lost a one-point game at home to the displaced Chargers last Sunday but we’re willing to forgive Carr for needing to knock the rust off after missing one game with an injury, especially on "hate week" against known bitter man, Philip Rivers. Last week the Chargers were desperate to get a win off the backs of a hated division foe and this week the Raiders now move to that role. Like Carr, the Raiders are damaged goods in the market. The division title is a pipe dream and the playoffs aren’t far behind but Oakland now moves into a spoiler role. The Steelers showed there were kinks in the Chiefs’ armor and put the blueprint to beat them in on tape.
Kansas City is a known commodity in this market while the Raiders have been nothing but a letdown to start the season. We doubt one loss will deter the masses but the bright lights you see in Vegas were built on the backs of seemingly superior teams laying a short price on the road in prime time falling, especially in a division game on a short week. We know the Raiders are not necessarily the better team here but by backing them we also know that we are going with the best of it, which is what we preach every day. We lean to the Raiders but not enough to get behind them as we prefer others in Sunday so much more. Recommendation is Oakland.
Bruce Marshall
Clippers at Lakers
Pick: Clippers
Lonzo Ball's much-hyped debut for the Lakers, but the real team to watch is this Clips, with a new bench courtesy of the Chris Paul trade, a new PG in Euro Milos Teodosic to hit Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan with plenty of lobs. Luke Walton gained Ball but lost three of his four top scorers from last season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Edmonton -103 over CHICAGO
Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.
The Blackhawks lost 5-2 in St. Louis last night and were outshot in the first period, 17-6. They ended up getting outshot 33-24 so they stepped it up after the first but will now play the tail end of back-to-backs after chasing a game against a team they hate with a passion. That does not set them up well for this one. Chicago is in second place in the West just behind St. Louis, which masks all their shortcomings. While we like the direction the Blackhawks are going, there are going to plenty of rough nights along the way because they are a weak defensive squad. Chicago is a bottom five team in both Corsi For and scoring chances against. They already have two losses by 5-2 scored and they were very lucky to beat Montreal after getting outshot 42-25. Remember that 4-3 OT loss in Toronto? Well, the Blackhawks were outshot in that one too, 43-21. Chicago has taken 25 minors over its past five games, which is another problem they figure to run into here in the second game of back-to-backs. Chicago will improve as the year wears on but right in this spot against this intruder, they are a big time risk.
Just five games in and the market has turned on the Oilers like a pit bull turns on a six-year-old. Five games in and it’s hard to imagine that we’re getting such an early opportunity to buy low on such a good team but that’s what four losses in a row will do. Once again, we’ll point out to not buy results. Buy ingredients and the results will come. Edmonton has created more scoring chances per game than any team in the NHL and it’s not close. They are creating an average of 28 per game but good puck luck has not been their friend. In their last game, the Oilers were stonewalled by Cam Ward of all people when the ‘Canes goaltender swiped away 48 of 51 shots in a 5-3 Carolina win. Cam Talbot has a save percentage of .883. The Oilers have been on the extreme side of bad luck thus far with 144 scoring chances for and just 86 against. The preseason projections on the Oilers were not off. This team is indeed a juggernaut but what is off is the market overreaction to a 1-4 start. Edmonton now gets out of Edmonton for the first of three games on the road and they’ll come into this one in a foul mood. Chicago is likely their first victim on said road trip and we’re on it.
Carolina +111 over CALGARY
OT included. Everything is rosy in Calgary at the moment, as the team is off to a 4-2 start and it is getting some reliable goaltending. That looks pretty on paper but the performance on the ice isn’t as pretty. Calgary has been outshot in every game but one. They are a middle of the pack team in every analytical category and that’s after playing a rather easy schedule. There are other issues too. The Flames can’t stay out of the box. They have taken seven minor penalties in each of their last two games and five minors or more in four straight. They come into this game as the most penalized team in the NHL, which is a strong indication that they’re chasing the puck. The addition of Jaromir Jagr doesn’t make them any quicker and it’s a questionable signing too. Jagr does not belong on the same line with Johnny Hockey and Sean Monahan or any other line for that matter. Lastly, the Flames have been off for four days, which is too long a break and there is a great chance they’ll be flat early on.
Carolina has played the fewest games (4) in the NHL. To give you an idea of how misleading final scores are, consider that the Hurricanes outshot their first their first three opponents by a count of 109 to 74 and picked up one OT win. In its last game in Edmonton, Carolina was outshot 51-21 (!) and won 5-3 in Edmonton. Coach Bill Peters of the ‘Canes called their last game “one of the worst performances” since he’s been here. Now for the first time this year, Carolina will play with one day off between games instead of a two, three or four day break. It matters. The Hurricanes are a top-10 puck possession team and that’s after playing the entire game in Edmonton without the puck. Prior to that game, they were the league’s top puck possession team. The ‘Canes will be better tonight and their best game is better than Calgary’s best game every time.
New Jersey +140 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators are 3-1-2 and have picked up eight out of a possible 12 points, which has them sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference just behind Toronto and Tampa Bay. The Sens three victories all came on the Canadian West Coast when they swept Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver while outscoring that trio by a resonating count of 15-3. Don’t buy it because the scores does not tell the story. The Sens have losses to Detroit, Washington and Vancouver, which is three of the worst defensive teams in the NHL but what sticks out most is that after six games, Ottawa is dead last in Corsi For % at 43.45%. That means that Ottawa is usually skating without the puck. The Sens scoring chances for and against differential of 99 for and 135 against is another alarming number. They are +7 in goal differential, which really reveals that how fortunate they have been. Getting out-chanced 135-99 is conducive to being +7 in goal differential.
Tampa Bay and Toronto are sitting 1-2 atop the East. The Devils just beat them both while scoring 11 goals in the process. They were down 1-0 to Tampa, 3-2 and 4-3 before winning it in a shootout, 5-4. The point is that the Devils have the ability to come from behind. In year’s past when they fell behind by a goal, it was pretty much game over. That gives a team and its goaltender all the confidence in the world. The Devils have some flaws to be sure. They are going to have to tighten up defensively and stay out of the box but for now, they’re having fun, they’re scoring goals, they’re winning and they’re dangerous. That’s more than enough reason to get behind them once again or at least until they cool off. The market still isn’t buying the Devils success but we’re not buying Ottawa’s.
Pass MLB & NCAAF
Buster Sports
Memphis at Houston
Play: Over 61.5
Memphis goes to Houston tonight in a college football matchup that has a couple of defenses that have struggled this year. To say Memphis has struggled is an understatement as they are sporting the 117th rank defense in college football. As for Houston, they sit at 83rd. We believe we are going to have a little bit of a shootout on our hands tonight in Houston. The last two games in the series have been very high scoring and this year’s matchup should be no different. QB Riley Ferguson leads an offense that is ranked 14th in the nation and they put up a bunch of points. On the other side, Houston’s QB Kyle Postma had a rough game last week but they have a solid offense as well ranking 52nd. We see Postma and the Houston offense getting back on track against Memphis tonight. At the time of this writing, the total is at 61 1/2 and we like this game to fly over the total.
Harry Bondi
Chiefs / Raiders Under 47
History tells us this should be a low-scoring affair. Not only have these two teams combined to go under in 10 of their last 26 divisional games, but the under has also cashed in 60% of the meetings between these two rivals since 1992, including in three of the last four meetings. In fact, ;last year in both meetings the over/under was posted in this same range at 46 and 47 points and the two games went under the total by a combined 23 points.
Bob Balfe
Dodgers -160
Clayton Kershaw has looked like a human in his last few outings, but there is nobody else I would want on the mound when trying to punch a ticket to the World Series. This is the 5th game of the series and the Cubs don’t have one run outside of home runs. This team is struggling to hit the ball which is bad news going against a pitcher like Kershaw. If the Dodgers can get a small lead it will be hard to crack this bullpen when this game gets into the later innings.
The Real Animal
Memphis +3
Memphis has won three straight games over top-25 schools the last two seasons versus Navy twice and UCLA. Last week Houston allowed Tulsa 288 rushing yards at 5.4 per carry. The Cougars are known for their defense but they are just #88 in the country with 10 sacks on the season. Meanwhile Memphis returned four starters on the offensive line and they have yielded just eight sacks on QB Ferguson or #8 in the nation in fewest sacks allowed. This is a dramatic improvement over last season when they O-line permitted 35 sacks. Following their lopsided loss to Central Florida, Memphis has rebounded and QB Ferguson has a 10-0 ratio in his last two games. Plus RB Henderson offers the Tigers balance averaging 8.1 yards per carry. It's been quite an adjustment for Houston without talented QB Ward, now in the NFL. QB Kyle Allen started the season but was yanked after compiling a mediocre 4-4 ratio. However current QB Kyle Postma has a 4-5 ratio (four picks last two games) and did not have a touchdown pass last week in the lopsided loss to Tulsa. Memphis entered this season as the fifth most-experienced team in the nation. QB Ferguson threw for over 400-yards and four touchdowns in the 48-44 win over Houston last year. Memphis last week held Navy to more than 100-yards below their rushing average per game. Houston has had problems offensively throughout the season and they may struggled against the powerhouse offensive teams in the conference. The Cougars are #107 in points per yards gained this season. I'll take the points with Memphis who has the better QB and a very opportunistic defense as they are #3 in the country with 17 takeaways. Wide receiver Anthony Miller is a stud with 45 receptions for 606 yards and nine touchdowns while catching at least one pass in 34 straight games. Houston has scored 109 points in the first half but just 44 in the second half.
Brian Edwards:
Memphis @ Houston over
is this a free play?Originally Posted by Hombre de Burro
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