Joey Juice

Friday's Play

50 Dime play on the Houston Astros over the N.Y. Yankees.
As I go live with my release at 8:00 am eastern time, the Astros with Verlander are -135 over the Yankees with Severino. Both of your listed pitchers must start, or there is no action on this release.

Analysis


So the question that gamblers have to ask themselves in this game is if they're going to bet with their emotion or their bankroll?


What an emotional comeback it's been for the Yankees.


They shut out the Astros 5-0 in Game Five, they have now won three straight, and will clinch tonight right? Wrong!


Believing in Miracles is one thing, but betting on them is a silly practice for gamblers.


A look inside the numbers tells you all you really need to know about betting this game.


The New York Yankees do not play well in Houston, they are 0-4 last 4 games in Houston.


The Houston Astros simply don't lose when Verlander's on the mound, they are 7-0 in Verlander’s last 7 starts. Houston is also one of the better home teams , especially when playing championship games, 7-1 last 8 League Championship home games. In fact Houston is perfect in their last four home playoff games, that's 4-0 in their last 4 home playoff games!


When you bet big games you bet on big game pitchers, and that's why you bet Verlander in a must win game 6 scenario, especially when he is having an incredible postseason. Just look at his last outing versus the same Yankees, he pitched a one-run complete game in game 2 of this series, and besides, since joining the Astros, he has an ERA of 1.39 in his eight outings.


So how good is Verlander? The combo of Judge, Gregorius and Sanchez went a mere 1 for 12 against him in Game Two. That means he is virtually unhittable.


Sorry Yankee fans if you're going to win this one it's going to have to be in Game 7 not Game 6.


Houston is the play.