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Fezzik
triple dime Miami -3
double dime Packers +6
Fezzik | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 22 2017 1:00PM
463 CAR / 464 CHI OVER 40.5 Pinnacle double-dime bet
Analysis: The Markets are still pricing Carolina totals based on their scoring problems early in the year.
Cam Was injured and Rusty, his Center was hurt, Olsen his TE went down, and his key WR Benjamin was banged up.
ALL those guys are back now, except Olsen, and Ed Dickson has been a more than capable TE Replacement.
Carolina's D still has issues.
Fox is not shy about chucking the ball down the field lately, with his Rookie QB, his Punter, or a skill position player, and look for more gimmick plays from the Bears.
40.5 is a REALLY low total that should be reserved for games with bad offenses, and we can get there even with limited offense here at 20-20.
Last edited by Can'tPickAWinner; 10-18-2017 at 10:24 AM.
SSIWINS Parley Lifestyle Picks
Patriots ML/Panthers ML (7.5 UNITS)-NFL
Dolphins ML/Saints -5.5/Giants +5/Chargers ML (2.5 UNITS)-NFL
VSI
NFL FOOTBALL
5 Unit Play. Take #463 Carolina -3 over Chicago (1:00p.m., Sunday October 22)
Carolina is coming off a bad home loss last week to the Philadelphia Eagles but on the road the Panthers are a perfect 3-0. Chicago is coming off a big road win last week beating the Ravens 27-24 in overtime but this is a new week and I see the Panthers playing well in Solider Field. I know the Chicago Bears have won 2 out of their last 3 games but overall they are still not one of the elite teams in the NFC and Sunday at home I see the Bears going down to the Panthers. If the Bears can run the ball at home Sunday afternoon this game could get ugly and overall I see Cam Newton, Jonthan Stewart, and the Panthers defense winning big. Carolina is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Chicago Bears are 1-6 ATS following a SU win.
3 Unit Play. Take #476 New England -3 over Atlanta (8:30p.m., Sunday October 22)
Super Bowl rematch Sunday night in Gillette Stadium and ever since the Falcons blew a lead in the Super Bowl all of their leads have not been safe. Last week at home the lost to the Dolphins blowing a lead and the Falcons come to Tom Brady's backyard losers of 2-straight. New England is playing better ball as of late winning back-to-back games and their defense has only given up 15.5ppg in their last 2 games. A little shocked that the Patriots are only -3 at home against a struggling Falcons team and again I see Tom Brady outplaying Matt Ryan Sunday night. The Patriots have covered 5-Straight games against Atlanta and the Pats are 8-3 ATS following a SU win.
4 Unit Play. Take #478 Philadelphia -4.5 over Washington (8:30p.m., Monday October 23)
Huge NFC East battle on Monday Night Football and Lincoln Financial Field should be loud for this matchup. The Eagles are 5-1 straight up this year and have covered 4 out of 6 and Monday night at home I see the Eagles continuing to surprise the rest of the NFC Conference. The Redskins are coming off a big home win last week against the 49ers but I'm sorry the 49ers are not even close to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles defense will be the key to a Monday Night victory and the last home game the Eagles played their defense held Arizona to only 7 points. Philadelphia gets this big Monday Night win against division rival and the Eagles start pulling away in the division. Washington is 0-4 ATS last 4 Monday Night games and the Eagles are 5-1 ATS against the NFC Conference
Fezzik
triple dime Miami -3
double dime Packers +6
King creole
4* New England / Atlanta over 55
Dave essler
3* Chargers -1
Indian Cowboy
6-Unit Play. #455. Take Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
The Bengals have really shaped up and you have to give them a lot of credit. After being unprepared for Baltimore and getting routed 0-20, then losing 9-13 to a decent Texans team, this team has shown resilience and nearly beat the Packers on the road - and then won back to back games against the Browns 31-7 and Buffalo 20-16. The most impressive effort without a doubt is against the Bills as they beat one of the best defenses in the league and able to show their own prowess on defense. The Bengals are now just one win away from being .500 and if they can win this division game, they are right back in the thick of things as it seems that Baltimore will collapse again this year, the Browns are the Browns and the Steelers are unpredictable. The Bengals have the 2nd best defense in the league and you saw what an active defense did to Big Ben when the Jags came into town and Ben also struggled against a good Chiefs defense. We like this Bengals defense a lot and we think they will keep them in this game and the Bengals are highly motivated coming into this game as they are just 7 points from being 4-1 versus 2-3 and there is a lot of value on this team here. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games and the Steelers are 0-4 ATS following a ATS win as they are a bit notorious for let downs after a big win like they had against the Chiefs.
Fezzik | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 22 2017 4:25PM
473 DEN 1.5(-110) Pinnacle vs 474 LAC double-dime bet
Analysis: The oddsmakers keep giving "SD" 3 for Home Field, and I have no idea why.
The Chargers are Nomads, with ZERO HFA, the Soccer Stadium will have more Broncos fans, and I will keep blindly betting the road team in Chargers games, they are 6-0 ATS.
Denver off a SU loss at a 13.5 point Favorite, a great spot to bring it here
warren sharp
[469] TOTAL o46.5
(DAL COWBOYS vrs SF 49ERS)
Indian Cowboy
5*TOTT/LIV (SUN@10AM)
Tottenham
3*LA/DALLAS (SUN@4PM)
Galaxy/Dallas Under 2.5
COLIN'S BLAZIN' 5...3-2 LAST WEEK...YTD: 19-11
Rams -3 1/2
Minnesota -5 1/2
Carolina -3
San Francisco +6
Atlanta +3 1/2 (upset)
Preferred Picks
Top NFL Play - Bengals + 5.5.
Dwayne Bryant
5* NFL Max Bet
Bengals +5.5
Jason Sharpe 5 Unit Play Take #473 Denver pick'em over Los Angeles Chargers (4:25pm est):
The Denver Broncos come in off an embarrassing loss last week at home to the winless New York Giants. The Broncos were nearly two touchdown favorites going into that game and they out-gained the Giants by nearly 150 yards in the contest but still found a way to lose. I expect a much more focused and intense effort here from what is a talented Broncos squad.
The Chargers started this season off 0-4 but are now up to 2-4 on the year with back to back wins and despite coming in with two wins in a row I haven't been impressed by what I've seen from this Chargers team overall. They scored a late touchdown to beat a bad New York Giants team two weeks ago and last week kicked a game winning field goal as time ran out to get the win over a Oakland Raiders squad who appeared to have a quarterback (Derek Carr) who wasn't himself in that contest.
The Broncos have beaten the Chargers 7 of the last 8 times they've faced them including a week one win earlier this season in a game that wasn't as close as the final score shows as Denver dominated most of that contest. Take Denver in this one.
Harris 5 Unit Play. Take #473 Denver Broncos +1 over Los Angeles Chargers (4:25 PM, Sunday, October 22)
The Denver Broncos will look to bounce back from an embarrassing home loss to the Giants last week when they hit the road to take on the Los Angeles Chargers at the Stub Hub Center in Carson, CA on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos have posted a 5-2 ATS record in their last seven games following a straight up loss and they have gone an excellent 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against the Chargers. Los Angeles, on the other hand, has struggled a bit in the spot they are in here as they have gone just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games where they faced an AFC West Division rival and they are an awful 4-12 ATS in their last sixteen games following a straight up win. They have also failed to cover the number in 16 of their last 21 home games where they faced a team with a winning record going back to their days in San Diego and they are an awful 7-19 in their last 26 home games overall. Throw in the fact that the road team has gone a lights out 11-3-1 ATS in the last fifteen head to head meetings between the two teams and we're going to take the point or so here with the Broncos in a game that we have them winning outright in LA on Sunday afternoon.
6 Unit Play. Take #477/478 Washington Redskins vs Philadelphia Eagles Over 48.5 (8:30 PM, Sunday, October 23, ESPN)
Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Washington Redskins hit the road to take on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA on Monday night. The Redskins have posted a perfect 8-0 record to the over in their last eight games following an ATS loss and they are also a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last five road games where they faced a team with a winning record at home. They have also gone up and over the number seven of their last nine games where they faced an NFC East Division rival and they are 20-6 to the over in their last 26 games overall. The Eagles have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Monday as they have gone 4-1 to the over in their last five games overall and they are an impressive 9-2 to the over in their last eleven games versus a team from the NFC East. They have also gone over the total in four of their last five when facing a team with a winning % of .500 or higher and they are 9-4-1 to the over in their last fourteen Monday Night Football games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have gone 4-1-1 to the over in their last six head to head meetings at The Linc and that's where we'll have our play as we our numbers have this one turning into a shootout in Philly on Monday night.
Mike Davis 7-Unit Play. Take #463 Carolina -3 over Chicago (Sunday, October 22nd at 1:00 p.m.)
Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers have played really bad football at home this season. However, they have looked really good on the road and that's exactly where they will be this Sunday when they play the Chicago Bears. The Panthers have defeated San Francisco, New England, and Detroit on the road this year. The San Franciso game wasn't really close and that's the team Chicago most resembles. Don't get me wrong, I am a Trubisky fan and I like the direction of this Bears' team. But, this is a bad spot for them as Cam and the Panthers are coming off of an embarrassing performance on Thursday Night Football that saw them lose to the Eagles at home. I look for them to respond in a big way against the Bears. They will shut down the run and force the Bears' wide receivers to beat them. Quick note: the Bears don't have any wide receivers. This line will move to 3.5, 4.0, or 4.5 by gametime but we are on it early on Thursday and we are happy to be on it. This is a big game for the Panthers and I am rolling with them this week in the Windy City. I look for Cam to really play well.
Take Carolina
Eastman 6-Unit Play. Take #463 Carolina (-3) over Chicago (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 22)
This play is from my NFL 411 System.
Carolina had extra time to rest up and to prepare for this game against Chicago. That will make a big difference as the Panthers were nursing some injuries. This Carolina team went to the Super Bowl two years ago and they are going to be in a fight with Atlanta for the NFC South all season long. They are much better than the Bears. Chicago is coming off a rare win at Baltimore. Both of Chicago's wins this year came in overtime and this team could very easily go 0-6 right now after winning just three games last year. The Panthers are 5-0 ATS on the road and they are 4-0 ATS following a loss and I think that Carolina's defense will dominate the weak Bears offense. Chicago is starting a rookie quarterback and he is going to struggle against one of the league's best defenses. Chicago is 1-6 ATS after a win and they have not fared well against Carolina in the past. The Panthers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Soldier Field. Cam Newton has a big edge over Mitch Trubisky and I see the Panthers forcing Chicago into several turnovers to give Newton and the offense the advantage. Carolina should win this one and I have the score at 30-10.
Ferringo 7-Unit Play. Take #467 Arizona (+3.5) over L.A. Rams (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 22)
I think that people jumped on the Rams bandwagon way too quickly. When it comes down to it, the Rams have wins over the Colts (2-4), 49ers (0-6), Cowboys (2-3) and Jaguars (3-3). Besides the Cowboys, those other three teams stink. Jared Goff has struggled against the two best secondaries that he faced, Washington and Seattle, and I expect the Cardinals back line to give him some problems. Arizona looked like a team with new life last week. Adrian Peterson has really given this roster a jolt and he is having a psychological impact on this group as much as he is having an on-field impact. They really looked like a different team last week against the Bucs in a game that wasn't as close as the final score suggested. The Cardinals are 5-2 SU in their last seven games against the Rams and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings. I think they are the better team. Either way, I think that's where the value lies. I will take the experience advantage - at coach, quarterback, running back and on defense - and the points in this one
Originally Posted by Can'tPickAWinner
Love how this game sets up. Everybody just saw the Steelers go into Kansas City and deal the Chiefs their first loss of the season (a nice 5% Winner for us). That was a huge game for Pittsburgh, as they were coming off an embarrassing 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars. Pittsburgh’s stock has never been higher this season, and I’m stepping in to “sell high.” The Steelers will be hard-pressed to play a second straight good game. They have not been able to do so yet this season. Now they attempt it against a well-rested, well-prepared, hungry division rival – the Bengals.
Cincinnati is coming off its bye, giving them a whole extra week to prepare for this huge AFC North battle. The Bengals defense has been “lights out.” They are #2 in the league in points allowed per game (16.6) and also #2 in yards allowed per game (262.8). Yes, the Steelers defense isn’t too far behind the Bengals D, but there is one big difference: The Bengals are allowing just 3.7 yards per carry (12th), while Pittsburgh is allowing 4.7 yards per carry (27th). That tough Bengals run defense will come in handy against Le’Veon Bell. Speaking of Bell…
Three weeks ago, Bell carried the ball 35 times in Pittsburgh’s huge 26-9 road win in Baltimore. The following week, Pittsburgh came home and laid that egg against Jacksonville. Bell had just 15 carries in that one. That takes us to this past Sunday, where Bell had another heavy workload (32 carries), and the Steelers dominated the Chiefs. With Bell off a very heavy workload and facing a stout Bengals run defense, it could be a long day for Bell and the Steelers offense.
I mentioned earlier how the Steelers have not been able to piece together two solid outings. Consider this:
Week 1: Escaped Cleveland with a 3-point win over the Browns as 9-point road chalk (ATS LOSS)
Week 2: Came home and hammered the Vikings 26-9 as 9-point home chalk (SU/ATS WIN)
Week 3: Went back on the road and lost in OT to the Bears 23-17 as 7-point road chalk (SU/ATS LOSS) – Side Note: We had the Bears for 5%
Week 4: Bounced back on the road, beating rival Baltimore 26-9 as 3-point road chalk (SU/ATS WIN)
Week 5: Flat as a pancake off that Ravens win, they come home and get embarrassed by the Jaguars 30-9 (SU/ATS LOSS)
Week 6: Bounce back again with an upset road win against previously undefeated KC 19-13 as 4-point dogs (SU/ATS WIN) – Side Note: We had Pittsburgh for 5%
Week 7: ???
As you can see, not only do I have a good read on the Steelers with two 5% Winners already, but the Steelers have alternated ATS wins and losses all season. They have not been able to put together back-to-back quality performances. What are the odds of them doing it this week off an emotional win against a previously undefeated opponent, now having to face a division rival that knows them all too well?
Back to the Bengals. They were left for dead after an 0-3 start, but they have won two straight (covered three straight) since then. That coincides with Bill Lazor taking over the play-calling duties. The Bengals averaged 4.5 points per game before Lazor took over. They are averaging 25 points per game since.
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