Friday 10-20-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Oct 20 '17, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Jazz vs Wolves
Play on: Wolves -4 -110 at BMaker

Let's take a look here at the T Wolves here tonight for their first home game. I had them in their first game and it was a loser but they had their chances to win SU at the Spurs, but blew the last 5 minutes of that game and didn't even cover. I just think they are way to deep here for the Jazz who are obviously with Hayward this year and Exum is hurt once again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Oct 20 '17, 7:05 PM in 2h
NBA | Cavs vs Bucks
Play on: Bucks +2½ -127 at betonline

Free Play on Bucks +2½ -127

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wesley Scott

Oct 20 '17, 10:15 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Colorado State vs New Mexico
Play on: Colorado State -7 -110 at BMaker

The Colorado State Rams (5-2 Overall, 3-0 MW) travel southwest to face the New Mexico Lobos (3-3 Overall, 1-2 MW).
The Rams are looking like the team to beat in the Mountain West Conference this season. Colorado State is undefeated in conference and looking for the Mountain West title.
Colorado State has won three in a row (all conference games) and most recently beat Nevada, 44-42 at home.
Rams quarterback Nick Stevens looked like Drew Brees in the win. He was 27 of 38 passing for 384 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The CSU offense had 608 total yards in the win.
New Mexico is looking like the team to play if you want a win in the Mountain West this year. The Lobos lost last Saturday, 38-0 at Fresno State. Dropping them to 1-2 in conference play.
New Mexico struggled bad offensively. The Lobos had 322 yards of total offense, but scored zero points. They even had the ball for almost 34 minutes and still struggled to score
Expect the Rams to get the win and cover on the road against the Lobos. Last year New Mexico lost at CSU, 49-31. The same will happen this year. Take the Rams to cover for the win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Oct 20 '17, 7:00 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Marshall vs Middle Tennessee State
Play on: OVER 48½ -110

Free pick on Marshall/Middle Tennessee OVER
I think we are getting some good value here with this low total that's been set for Friday's C-USA matchup between Marshall and Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders aren't the same offensive team without junior QB Brent Stockstill, who hasn't played in the last 5 and is listed as doubtful. His absence will have the public looking to take the UNDER with Marshall not considered a high-scoring team, but the books have already adjusted the number here.
Middle Tennessee sophomore John Urzua has flashed some decent potential, throwing for 359 yards against FAU. He's not afraid to take chances and that's not a bad thing. It increases the likelihood of some big plays and quick scores for Marshall, as well as some turnovers for Marshall that should lead to good field position and quick scores. We just have to hope the turnovers don't come deep in Marshall territory.
I mentioned the Thundering Herd aren't considered a great offense. However, they have shown some positive signs here of late, scoring 38 at Cincinnati and 35 against Old Dominion last time out. Memphis isn't a great defensive team by any means and I look for Marshall to be able to move the ball. All we need is a combined 25 points each half and we are clear of the mark by 1.5-points. I think they get that and a lot more. Take the OVER!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Oct 20 '17, 8:00 PM in 3h
MLB | NYY vs HOU
Play on: UNDER 7½ -122

1* on Yankees vs Astros under 7½ -122

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Dustin Hawkins

Oct 20 '17, 8:05 PM in 3h
NBA | Jazz vs Wolves
Play on: Wolves -4 -110 at 5Dimes

Free Play on Wolves -4 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Western Kentucky / Old Dominion Over 49

Old Dominion is absolutely going to be rocking for this game. Though it sounds silly to get up for Western Kentucky, ODU will do just that. This is an ODU team that needs some quality wins to keep building its program and finds itself nearly as a double-digit home underdog. This team will not be intimidated coming into this game as remember this team played Virginia Tech earlier this year at Tech and lost 0-38 (not bad). They lost 24-59 to this very same Western Kentucky team last year and they have gotten better since then and in particular their offense. However, their offense only put up 3 points against Marshall last week and was grossly inefficient and we expect them to bounce-back with a quality effort this week. Remember, when this team put up just a few points against UMass, in their next game they put up 23 against UNC. Or, when they put up 0 against Va Tech, their next game they put up 28 points against FAU. Hence, look for a decent performance offensively for ODU and in the same token, look for a decent performance from Western Kentucky as they are a top 40 offense. The 'Over' is 4-0 for the Hilltoppers following an ATS win and the 'Over' is 5-0 for the Monarchs of Old Dominion after scoring 20 or less points their previous game.

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Big Al

Vancouver vs. Buffalo
Pick: Buffalo -139

No team shook things up more in the off-season than the Sabres, who replaced general manager Tim Murray with two-time Stanley Cup winner Jason Botterill and supplanted head coach Dan Bylsma with former Nashville assistant (former Sabre) Phil Housley. But that was just the beginning. After the Sabres finished with the third-fewest goals in the East while allowing the fifth most, Botterill went to work on fortifying his roster, swinging a major trade that sent Fs Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno to the Wild in exchange for top D Marco Scandella and checking-line F Jason Pominville. Botterill also signed Fs Benoit Pouliot and Jacob Josefson to one-year deals, acquired D Nathan Beaulieu from Montreal and made a shrewd under-the-radar signing of KHL star D Viktor Antipin, a gifted 24-year-old Russian who was courted by several NHL teams. They come into this game off of a tough OT loss to the Knights but now they get a match-up against a really bad NHL club. The home team is 16-5-1 in the last 22 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

HAWKS AT HORNETS
PLAY: HORNETS -6

Props to the Atlanta Hawks for a nice opening night win on the road at Dallas. I don’t think it means much and I still project the Hawks to be one of the worst teams in the league this season.

As for Charlotte, let’s call in an opening night dud. They just never really got going at Detroit and walked off the court a decisive loser to the Pistons.

But I still see the Hornets as being one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference. In fact, with Boston suffering a terrible injury to start the season, I can definitely envision this Charlotte entry earning a home court edge come opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs next spring.

As for tonight, I’ve got to think the Hornets will get more out of its second unit than they did at Detroit. The guys off the bench were pretty awful in the opener, but I’ll expect better things from that unit tonight.

The one potential fly in the ointment is Dwight Howard, who can still play but who also can fry a team mentally. Sorry, but I haven’t been a fan of his for several years and the recent profile in Sports Illustrated did nothing to change that view.

Nevertheless, I still like this Charlotte squad to some extent and I’m just not seeing the Hawks as much more than bottom feeder material. The number is pretty reasonable, so my initial look here is Hornets minus the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Gomes

Detroit @ Washington
Pick: Detroit +6

Detroit is coming from a comfortable home win against Charlotte. The Pistons dominated the boards battle against a good rebounding team and showcased a great ball movement, with 24 assists on 41 made buckets with only 8 turnovers. Tobias had a huge first half, Reggie seemed to have learnt how to share the ball and Drummond dominated the boards against Howard.

I believe the key factor for tonight's game will be the rebounding and turnovers. If Detroit plays like they did against Charlotte, then they'll have an important edge on both rebounding (Markieff is still out and so, Washington will have to use smaller lineups) and transition defense, as if they don't turn over the ball, then the Wizards won't have chances for early offense scores. Unlike Philadelphia which uses undersized guards (Bayless and Reddick), Detroit has lots of size on the wings, which will make Beal, Wall and Porter struggle. If we add a clear bench edge for the Pistons, I believe Detroit will be very competitive tonight and so, I'll take them plus the points in here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Antony Dinero

Colorado St at New Mexico
Play: Over 57.5

The Rams are going to have to make sure they keep the Lobos down to keep the crowd in Albuquerque from becoming a factor, but they seem to have significant edges with their receivers against a vulnerable, banged-up defensive backfield. Look for Colorado State to pull away, winning and covering in a game that soars above the posted total and into the 60s.

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Harry Bondi

NEVADA (+7) over Air Force

Extremely difficult spot here for the Fly Boys to be laying a TD on the road on a short week. In the last two weeks, Air Force has played a couple of draining games, falling behind to Navy, 38-17, before a furious comeback fell short in an eventual 48-45 crushing loss, followed by last week’s game against UNLV when they fell behind 27-0 before rallying to come back and win 34-30. What’s more, this is the team’s third road game in four weeks and they have rivals Colorado State and Army on deck. Despite a 1-6 straight up record, Nevada has covered two in a row and is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home dog of seven or less.

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ASA

Boston at Philadelphia
Play: Boston +2

The Celtics clearly suffered a huge blow on the opening night of the season when they lost Gordon Hayward and then were beaten by the Cavaliers. They returned home to face the up-and-coming Bucks at home and lost outright as a small chalk. Philly meanwhile lost at Washington and have core of young exciting talent on the roster. But has the 76ers roster improved that much they should be favored over the team that had the best overall record in the East last year? Granted, the Celtics have a new roster and lost Hayward, but Philly was a favorite just TWO TIMES all last season. In fact, the 76ers have been instilled as a chalk by the oddsmakers just 6 times in the past two full seasons! Boston is off two straight losses (24-13 65% SU off a ‘L’ last year) to start the season (versus playoff teams) and now step way down in talent here. The 76ers don’t have anyone that can guard Kyrie Irving here yet Boston has Horford to defend Embiid. Easy bet on Boston.

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SPORTS WAGERS

MID TENNESSEE ST +105 over Marshall

The Thundering Herd have caught fire by winning their last four contests overall and doing so in dominant fashion. Marshall has outscored its opponents 108-27 over this span. Marshall’s sole defeat on the year was to N.C. State, who is currently ranked #16 in the country. Marshall has been a cash cow against the spread this year by cashing tickets for their backers five out of six times. The Thundering Herd seem like a gravy train but that’s the worst time to jump on. There is a time to get off and this scenario sets up perfectly to do just that.

Last week Marshall closed as a 12½-point choice at home against Old Dominion and won by a margin of 35-3. However, this week the Herd opened not even spotting a field goal. What jumps out at us even more is that the opening number (+2½) is one that is a notoriously favorable figure for the underdog. The hook here is that if Marshall were to win by just a field goal, they would secure yet another cover. However, in many cases underdogs that are offered at this price are in line to orchestrate an upset.

Middle Tennessee State comes in off a loss at a UAB football program that was just reinstated this year after prolonged futility as a perpetual bottom-feeder. The Blue Raiders are a team that generally plays at a higher level at home. In fact, bookmakers have used this angle to their advantage when MTSU opened their season at home against Vanderbilt. The Commodores opened spotting over a touchdown to the Blue Raiders, but a heavy steam of action on Middle Tennessee State drove the Commodores down to a deflated favorite. The ‘Dores would embarrass the Blue Raiders by a score of 28-6. Since then, MTSU has won their last two at home and done so by convincing margins but the market has dismissed this by virtue of the fact it was against two marshmallows in FIU and Bowling Green. An opposite course of events has been the case with Marshall.

While Marshall may have an impressive record on the season and a four-game winning streak where they appear to get better each week, its victories were earned against nominal competition. In their current streak, the Herd own wins over a winless Charlotte team, a Kent State team that has beaten only one FBS team this season, a Cincinnati Bearcats team that is a shell of its former self, and an Old Dominion football team that came into Huntington riding a three-game losing streak. Perhaps the most glaring thing to note here is one that this market will not see or has no idea about. We’ve already covered Marshall’s weak schedule but you may be surprised to learn that Marshall’s over/under win total for the season was five. They already have five wins so either the books made a massive mistake in reading what this team was capable of or State is a lot worse than this market realizes and just caught lightning in a bottle for a few weeks. We generally like to side with the odds-makers more than the results. The timing is now perfect to jump off this high-profile ship that’s headed right for an iceberg. MTSU outright is the call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +114 over Washington

The Red Wings are coming off back-to-back losses to Tampa and Toronto, the top two teams in the East and Detroit was the better team in both games. They also went into Vegas and beat the Golden Knights 6-3, which may not seem like much but every other team that has played in Vegas has had nothing but misery. The Red Wings were projected to be a team in trouble this year and while it’s still early, they might be a lot better than advertised. They Red Wings have four lines that can play and three lines that can absolutely bury the puck. Keep your eye on Martin Frk on Detroit’s third line with Frans Nielsen and Darren Helm. The rookie has a wicked shot and release and already has three goals. The Mantha/Zetterberg/Nyquist line is playing at a high level out there and the second line of Tatar/Larkin/Abdelkader is dangerous too. The defense is also better than advertised, as Trevor Daley has fit in nicely, Niklas Kronwall is healthy and Mike Green is still an offensive force. Detroit has some nice wins this year and if they get the goaltending, they will be very competitive. Perhaps most importantly is that Detroit believes in what they’re doing and are playing with a fire in their belly. We can’t say the same for the Capitals.

We figured on regression for the Capitals but we were wrong. We gave them too much credit. Washington’s demise is going to come fast and furious. They have lost their edge and swag. Its defense is the worst in hockey and it might not be close. The exodus of key players, including three d-men combined with the window of opportunity that has closed combined with the aforementioned loss of their swag makes the Caps one of the more beatable teams in the NHL this year. There is a massive drop off in talent after the Caps top six. In fact, anyone after their top six would have a difficult time cracking any NHL lineup in the league. It is time to move in hard against the Caps because they are going to be overpriced for a few more weeks until this market adjusts to how bad they truly are. Make no mistake folks, the Caps are not going to the playoffs. Barry Trotz is going to lose his job and the only way this team doesn’t lose 45 games or more is if Braden Holtby stands on his head the entire season. Some may not agree but we don’t care. We’re taking a position here because we have watched all seven games that Washington has played and they look worse each time out. The attack on this overpriced Capitals team will not relent and we expect to get paid.

The bets are as follows:

Detroit -1½ +3.10 for 1 unit

Detroit +114 for 1 unit

WINNIPEG -1½ +260 over Minnesota

Paul Maurice's contract should have contained a clause that prohibits him from making goaltending decisions. GM and coaches only dream of having the talent that the Jets have, yet this idiot Maurice figured that after a three game winning streak with Connor Hellebucyk in goal, it would be a good idea to go back to Steve Mason. Naturally the Jets lost but Hellebucyk will be back in goal here. Over its three wins, the Jets outscored Edmonton, Vancouver and Carolina, 11-5. The Jets are 3-0 with Hellebucyk in net and 0-3 with Mason in net. They’ll now play a team that is getting way too much respect in this market.

Minnesota should be taking back +160 or more here, not +105 so if you want to spot -125 with the Jets, you would still be getting great value. In just four games, the Wild have scored 15 goals but that’s due to a high shooting percentage. They have clearly been outplayed in every game. They are spending more time in the box than the opposition and way more time in their own end too. The Wild were badly outshot by both Columbus and Carolina. They were outshot by Chicago too. They rank dead last in the NHL in Corsi For % and are also dead last in scoring chances per game. Minnesota had a decent season a year ago but this is a nothing team that plays an old school style of trying to grind out wins because they can’t outclass or compete any other way. Lay the small price if you like but we’ll gladly spot the pucks and take back a sweet price.

Pass MLB

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Astros -140

Both teams in this series have taken care of business at home. In MLB you play all season long to get the home field advantage in a series like this. The Yankees might indeed be up, but the ball is in the Astros court. This team has been great at home all year long while the Yankees have been below average. This should be another great pitching match up. The Yankees are a different team away from home as they don’t score as many runs. Look for Houston to force a Game 7.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bruce Marshall

Sharks at Devils
Pick: Devils

New Jersey's goal parade continued last night in a 5-4 win vs. the Sens, also the sixth "over: in seven games to date for New Jersey. It's now 31 goals in seven games for New Jersey, with top draft pick Nico Hischier breaking out last night with two goals and an assist at Ottawa in his first multi-point game of his young career. San Jose has had great success vs. Eastern teams in recent years but the Sharks broke slowly from the gate, losing three of their first five games, all at home.

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Dr Bob

INDIANA (+5) over Portland

Portland opened the season with a 124-76 road win but teams that play that well in their opener tend to relax in game 2, especially against a non-division opponent that they should beat. In fact, Non-division game 2 favorites of 2 points or more that won their opening game by 15 points or more and covered the spread by 12 points or more are 0-22-2 ATS.

Indiana has a lot of new pieces this season but the Pacers played well in their 140-131 opening win over the Nets. Brooklyn is a bad team but the Packers won that game despite making just 9 of 34 (26.5%) 3-point shots while the Nets were 40% from long range (12 of 30). Unfortunately, star big man Myles Turner is listed as doubtful tonight – although that is reflected in the line, which has moved up from 3.5 points. I’ll take Indiana in a 1-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more.

Opinion – Golden State (-8½) over NEW ORLEANS

The Warriors lost their opening game for the 2nd consecutive season but game 2 favorites of 4 points or more that lost their opener straight up as a favorite of more than 2 points are 30-7 ATS. That’s worth a lean on the Warriors tonight against a Pelicans squad that still hasn’t proven that they can play with both Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.

Opinion – DALLAS (-5½) over Sacramento

Dallas was upset in their opener, losing 111-117 to the Hawks as a 5 ½ point home favorite. It’s likely that the Mavericks will redeem themselves tonight, as game 2 favorites of 4 points or more that lost their opener straight up as a favorite of more than 2 points are 30-7 ATS. Sacramento covered the spread in their 5 point home loss to the Rockets, who had just upset the Warriors the previous night, but the Kings were lucky to be that close given that Houston missed 33 3-points shots and converted on just 26.7% from long range. The Kings would have lost by about 15 points if the Rockets had a normal 3-point shooting night and I expect Sacramento to really struggle this season.