Saturday 10-21-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alex Smart
cfb

Wyoming vs. Boise State, 10/21/2017 22:15 EDT

Point Spread: +14/-106 Wyoming

Sportsbook:
PinnacleSports

Wyoming after losing 2 of their first three games to begin their season have won three straight games SU/ATS, and are finally starting to perform up to expectations behind stud QB, Joh Allen who is still not in top form , but ready to explode at any time. However, Wyoming is ranked tied for first in Red Zone offense, and should do much better than San Diego State did last week vs Boise State . The Broncos surprised a lot of pundits last week, by beating SD State, but the truth is the Aztecs are starting to become easier to read as the season has gone on, as they just continually hand the ball to Rashad Penney . With that said, and now in a letdown scenario after their upset win, I'm betting the Broncos will have a hard time getting up for this tilt despite of being in revenge mode for a 30-28 loss at Larime last season.

WYOMING is 8-1 ATS L/9 vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last few seasons.BOISE ST is 0-8 ATS L/8 as a home favorite and is 0-8 ATS L/8 in home games after playing a conference game .

CFB Underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points like Wyoming - after having won 4 out of their last 5 games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record are 28-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Wyoming to cover

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben Burns
BEN'S FREE PLAY

Colorado vs. Washington State, 10/21/2017 22:45 EDT

Point Spread: +10½/-110 Colorado

Sportsbook:
Bookmaker

Some of you will recall that I successfully played against the Cougars, at Cal, last week, the start of a 14-4 Fri/Sat/Sun streak. Washington State was "riding high," entering that game. The 6-0 Cougs had a top-ten ranking and were coming off victories over USC and Oregon. They'd close as -16.5 point favorites.

Then, Friday The 13th got them. Something did, anyway. The Cougs didn't show up and the Bears came away with a convincing 37-3 victory. Thats right. They beat the closing line by 50 points.

Off that rude awakening, I'm not sure that the Cougs are ready to be laying double-digits here. Colorado, which beat WSU by 14 points last season, is 9-4 ATS its last 13 true road games. Both this season's road games have been close, each decided by four or fewer points. Take a look at the visitors here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Arizona State vs Utah
Play on: Arizona State +10 -110 at BMaker

10* FREE NCAAF PICK (Arizona State +10)
The value here is with the Sun Devils as a double-digit dog once again. Arizona State is a team that continues to be undervalued, despite just beating the No. 5 team in the country. A big reason for that is they haven’t been a serious threat in the Pac-12 for years and were just 5-7 a season ago.
Utah is getting a lot of love for how they have played to start the year, most notably their near upsets in their last two games against Stanford and USC. What I think the public is overlooking here is that this is a really tough spot for the Utes.
They just laid everything they had on the line against the Trojans. To let a 14-point lead slip away and then miss an opportunity to win the game on a 2-point play is about as gut-wrenching a defeat as you will find. It’s a lot harder to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a close defeat. Especially when it’s a game you think you should have won.
At the same time, I don’t know that the Utes would deserve to be laying more than a touchdown had they beat USC last week. I believe we are seeing Utah way overvalued simply because of the fact that they haven’t lost a game against the spread (5-0-1 ATS).
This is also a good matchup for Arizona State. While Utah’s defense is strong, they are much better at stopping the run than the pass. The Utes are just 77th against the pass compared to 30th against the run. Arizona State’s offense features the 25th ranked passing attack.
Let’s also not overlook how well Arizona State’s defense played against Washington. The Sun Devils held the Huskies to just 230 total yards and 14 first downs. The overall defensive numbers aren’t great, but that’s understandable given they have played the likes of Texas Tech, Oregon (prior to Justin Herbert getting hurt) and Stanford.
The Sun Devils are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 vs a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after holding their previous opponent to less than 20 points. I would take the points here, but also don’t hate a little extra on the money line. Give me the Sun Devils +10!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott Spreitzer

Oct 21 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | West Virginia vs Baylor
Play on: Baylor +9½ -110 at GTBets

I'm taking the points with the Baylor Bears on Saturday night. The Bears return home after back-to-back road games and last time in Waco, they actually gave Oklahoma a run for their money as a 27-point underdog, before the Sooners finished with a 49-41 win. Baylor was no match for Oklahoma State in Stillwater last weekend, but West Virginia, a team that can't stop the run or the pass, is in a tough spot. The Mountaineers are off a tough loss to TCU two weeks ago and a pretty big come from behind win at Texas Tech one week ago. Along with a home game against Oklahoma State up next, focusing solely on Baylor might not be too easy. We expect the Mountaineers to score some points, we just don't believe they can distance themselves due to their weak defensive play. Meanwhile, Baylor will draw confidence from the 8-point loss to OU just a few weeks ago. I'm backing Baylor plus the points on Saturday night. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Oct 21 '17, 10:15 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Boise State
Play on: Wyoming +14 -110 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Wyoming +14

The Boise State Broncos are getting too much love now after beating San Diego State 31-14 on the road last week as 4-point underdogs. But that was a misleading final as the Broncos were aided by a 53-yard punt return TD and a 34-yard fumble recovery TD to start the game. The numbers show that Boise State simply isn't a very good team. The Broncos have actually been outgained in four of their six games this season. Wyoming has turned the corner after a brutal early schedule with losses to Oregon and Iowa. They have won three straight coming in while covering the spread in all three. Wyoming beat Boise State 30-28 last year. The Broncos will want revenge, but they should not be favored by two touchdowns here. The Broncos are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games, and 0-8 ATS as home favorites over the last two seasons. The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 conference games. Take Wyoming.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doug Upstone

Oct 21 '17, 7:00 PM in 6h
NCAA-F | BYU vs East Carolina
Play on: OVER 57 -120

East Carolina is an awful defensive team and so is BYU, who is close to as bad. ECU can at least move the ball on offense. In this seemingly odd matchup, we will look to Play Over on teams on teams like the Pirates when the total is between 56.5 and 63, a good offensive team at 390 to 440 YPG, against a team with a poor defense (390 to 440 YPG), after allowing 575 or more total yards in their previous game. Since 1992, this situation is a sweet (24-4, 85.7%!
Doug Upstone Big Ten Parlay Pleaser!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Oct 21 '17, 2:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Miami-OH
Play on: UNDER 46 -115

Free Total Annihilator On Buffalo vs Miami-OH under 46 -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Andre Ramirez

Oct 21 '17, 10:15 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Boise State
Play on: OVER 44½ -110

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 75 DIME GAME
BOISE ST/WYOMING 44.5 OVER
There is plenty of talent on both sides of the ball in this game as much as you'll see between any two Group of 5 programs in the country. That said, I expect this one to be decided on the sidelines. The Broncos are coming off of a big win over San Diego State, but there's more to that game as you peel back the layers. Boise State didn't do much offensively and relied on big plays from the defense and special teams to jump ahead. Craig Bohl's Cowboys won't rely on the run like San Diego State did and will be much more careful with the football. On defense, I expect Wyoming to key on Broncos running back Alexander Mattison to take him away from Rypien as often as possible, leading to a sound.
According to my algorithm, I have Wyoming winning 28-24. Lay the money on the over here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Club

Oct 21 '17, 2:00 PM in 1h
NCAA-F | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan
Play on: Eastern Michigan +3 -115 at 5Dimes

Eastern Michigan +3
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Western Michigan Broncos and the Eastern Michigan Eagles face off on Saturday, and with the Eagles playing teams tough I like their value.
The Eagles come into this game with a 2-4 record, but don't let that fool you, they have been playing teams really tough.
They come into this game having covered the spread in five of the six games they have played so far this year.
Coming into the last three games they were a combined 32 point underdogs but only lost those three games by a combined 10 points.
The Broncos also had to play their game on Sunday instead of Saturday last week so they had one less day to prepare.
Some trends to note. Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
5* FREE Cappers Club Power Play
Good Luck, Cappers Club.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

Oct 21 '17, 6:00 PM in 5h
NCAA-F | Utah State vs UNLV
Play on: Utah State +3½ -115 at Bovada

This line was quickly bet up from +2.5 to +4 earlier this week as the public wanted nothing to do with Utah State after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. However, this line is starting to come back down and is still too high as my power ratings make this game a Pick'em. This road trip might actually help the Aggies refocus and Utah State was excellent in their most recent road game four weeks ago; an easy 61-10 win at San Jose State. UNLV blew a 27-0 lead at Air Force last week and lost 30-34. A hangover is definitely possible this week, and UNLV is just 1-2 SU/ATS at home this season which includes the biggest upset loss in history when Howard won 43-40 as a 44-point underdog at UNLV in September. The Rebels' defense has struggled this season, allowing 33.5 points per game on 6.1 yards per play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Ryan

Oct 21 '17, 7:30 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Michigan vs Penn State
Play on: Penn State -9½ -110 at 5Dimes

The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Penn State
The Matchup: MICHIGAN (5 - 1) at PENN ST (6 - 0)
Start Time: Week 8 Saturday, 10/21/2017 7:30 PM
SIM grading: 5 star grading of 3 to 10 star range
Recommended Strategy: Play a 5 star amount on Penn State using the line.
Advanced and Predictive Analytics Discussion Points
The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game.
PSU is a near-perfect 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 40.5, OPPONENT 20.5
PSU is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.2, OPPONENT 20.6
PSU is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 42.9, OPPONENT 23.1
PSU 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 40.7, OPPONENT 18.7
PSU 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 42.3, OPPONENT 13.1
PSU is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 37.6, OPPONENT 16.6
PSU is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 37.3, OPPONENT 19.3
PSU is 11-0 ATS (+11.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.5, OPPONENT 20.0
PSUs 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 45.6, OPPONENT 23.4
PSUs 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PENN ST 41.6, OPPONENT 21.3 - (Rating = 4*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Michael Alexander

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Miami-FL
Play on: Syracuse +17 -110 at 5Dimes

Rating: 2 Unit NCAAF Free Pick
Syracuse shocked the collegiate football world last week, with a dominating 27-24 upset of then 2nd ranked Clemson. In that one, Clemson had to go it with an injured QB (Bryant), before he went out of the game, altogether. Certainly not the best of situations for Clemson. However, it was the Syracuse offense that was the story of the game, as it held 28-16 first down, 440-317 yard, & 83-57 play edges vs the Tigers' 8th ranked defense. When on, QB Dungey can excel both in the air and on the ground. Miami comes into this one off a miracle win over previously unbeaten Georgia Tech. This game spells TRAP

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Oct 21 '17, 3:30 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Syracuse vs Miami-FL
Play on: Syracuse +17½ -110 at 5Dimes

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Syracuse +17.5

The Key: I don't like backing teams off huge wins like the one Syracuse is coming off of against Clemson. But since that game was played on Friday, the team has had extra time to get over it. And if they were playing a bottom tier ACC team, I would look to fade them. But the Orange to get face highly ranked and unbeaten Miami this week. They will certainly be up for this game because of it. Miami is getting too much love for its unbeaten record. But the Hurricanes pulled off two straight late miracles to beat mediocre Florida State and Georgia Tech teams. I don't know what more Syracuse needs to do to prove it can play with elite competition and start getting respect from oddsmakers. The Orange have gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. They only lost by 9 at LSU as 21.5-point dogs, by 8 at NC State as 14-point dogs, and upset Clemson by 3 as 23-point dogs. And they had Clemson on the ropes even before they lost their starting QB just before half. This one will be closer than the books are expecting once again. Take Syracuse.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vic Duke

Oct 21 '17, 10:15 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Wyoming vs Boise State
Play on: Wyoming +14 -109 at 5Dimes

Wyoming/Boise State 10:15: Pretty good value with Wyoming - coming off back to back wins as much heralded QB Josh Allen starting to find his rhythm. He does miss RB Brian Hill as the running game is suffering. Nevertheless, we'll ride the momentum with the Cowboys who are now 10-1 ATS in October. They are not ready to hang with the big boys yet - getting waxed by Iowa and Oregon; however, they're 10-2 ATS against conference foes and 7-0 ATS as a road dog of less than 23 points vs an opponent off back to back wins. Sure, Boise is coming off some impressive wins and looking to avenge last year's loss; however, Boise just 3-13 ATS at home. Blue turf no longer an automatic under HC Harsin. We'll take the two touchdowns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Oct 21 '17, 4:00 PM in 3h
NCAA-F | Oregon vs UCLA
Play on: Oregon +7 -130 at 5Dimes

1* Free Play on Oregon +7 -130

Released on Oct 20 at 09:10 am

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Oct 21 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | Arizona vs California
Play on: California +3 -105 at betonline

386 Arizona at California
The Wildcats are off back to back straight up upset wins over UCLA and Colorado. But this club is just 2-7 SU on the road as of yet, with one of those victories coming at UTEP. Simply can’t trust this club to win by a margin on the road against a decent team. Arizona is +8 explosive plays this season, while Cal sits at +11. The difference is that the Bears have played a 34 spot tougher schedule. Cal has only permitted 16 explosive plays in six FBS games this year. Only one team has managed more than 17 points at the half. The Bears are on the rise and the markets are slow to adjust. With an extra day to prepare off a positive upset of Washington State, we back the host on Saturday.
PLAY CALIFORNIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Oct 21 '17, 10:30 PM in 10h
NCAA-F | Fresno State vs San Diego State
Play on: Fresno State +7½ -108 at betonline

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Fresno State +7.5

The betting markets have been slow to catch on to how good the Fresno State Bulldogs are this season. I think they're still behind the eight ball here as the Bulldogs are catching 7.5 points at San Diego State in a game they will likely win outright tonight.

Jeff Tedford came back to college football in a good situation here as there were 16 returning starters for Fresno State. And he has made the most out of it. The Bulldogs are 4-2 this season with their two losses coming against two of the best teams in college football in Alabama and Washington, and they covered the spread in both games.

In fact, the Bulldogs are a perfect 6-0 ATS this season. They are coming off a 38-0 beat down of New Mexico last week, which is even more impressive when you consider the Lobos were coming off a bye week. I'm not so sure that Fresno State isn't the best team in the Mountain West this season in what has proven to be a wide open conference.

This is an awful spot for the San Diego State Aztecs. They will be deflated after suffering their first loss of the season last week, a 14-31 upset home loss to Boise State. The air has been let out of the balloon now as the Aztecs realize they won't be the Group of 5 representative for a New Year's Bowl. I don't expect them to get back up off the mat in time to put away a game Fresno State team by more than a touchdown this week.

The Bulldogs have really turned the corner since making the change to Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion a few weeks back. He has come in and lit it up by completing 65.8% of his passes for 966 yards with a 7-to-1 TD/INT ratio and 8.7 per attempt. He has also rushed for 133 yards and 5.3 per carry, adding a nice dual-threat element to the offense that Chason Virgil simply did not have.

And this is actually a great matchup for Fresno State because their strength on defense is stopping the run, and San Diego State is an awful passing team that relies almost exclusively on the running the football. The Bulldogs are only allowing 111 rushing yards per game and 3.6 per carry against teams that normally average 157 yards per game and 4.3 per carry. Those numbers become even more impressive when you consider they've had to face Alabama and Washington.

Fresno State is a perfect 9-0 ATS in its last nine games after a game where it committed one or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons. The Bulldogs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Fresno State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with SDSU. Bet Fresno State Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Oct 21 '17, 12:20 PM in 12m
NCAA-F | Pittsburgh vs Duke
Play on: Duke -7½ -110 at GTBets

1* Free Pick on Duke -7½ -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Oct 21 '17, 8:00 PM in 7h
NCAA-F | West Virginia vs Baylor
Play on: West Virginia -9 -105 at betonline

Maybe this line is to good too be true, but I will bite here on it. I think this Baylor team is completely done with this season. They were destroyed last weekend @ Oklahoma St 59-16.
Baylor is giving up a terrible 9.1 yards per pass attempt and West Virginia averages 8.8 yards per pass attempt. Baylor is being out gained by over 100 yards per game. I like the come back from behind on West Virginia last week which I believes carries over here to this game. Baylor is terrible and West Virginia should have no problem covering

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Matt Josephs

Oct 21 '17, 2:30 PM in 2h
NCAA-F | Buffalo vs Miami-OH
Play on: Buffalo +3 -115 at BMaker

Miami Ohio enters this one having lost three straight. Over that span, the defense let them down against Notre Dame and Bowling Green. The offense has also had it's issues this season scoring 17 points or less three times. So much was expected from this team after their finish last season, but they have not met expectations. Buffalo has had two tough weeks after a three game win streak. They lost a multiple overtime game at home to Western Michigan and then a one point loss against NIU. Anthony Johnson is a very impressive WR although we are not sure who the QB is that will get him the ball. Buffalo has covered in six of their seven games this season including all four as an underdog. Miami-Ohio has been the opposite and has covered once in seven contests failing to do so in all five games as a favorite. Give me the road team.