Sunday 10-22-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[bmd1803]

Broncos at Chargers 10/22/17 - NFL Picks & Predictions

by Jim

Latest Odds : LAC -1.5 Total 42.5

Denver is coming off of a stunning loss to the Giants in what was a game the Broncos were supposed to be able to win. The Broncos have been a decent team all around this year as they have been able to score a total of 21 points a game, but the defense for the Broncos is giving up 19 points a game.

The Broncos running attack needs to get started as the Broncos are led in the rushing by C.J. Anderson who has carried the ball 82 times for 347 yards and only a single touchdown in the game.


The Chargers are going to have a good leg up here because they were able to actually beat the Giants in the last game they played against each other. The same Giants team that seemingly managed to control the Broncos in the last game and that could easily help the Chargers in getting the wins they need to have.

Philip Rivers is the player who has led the Chargers weak offense. Rivers has been able to throw for a total of 1633 yards on the year and 10 touchdowns this season.


Recent Betting Trends:
Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Chargers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC West.
Over is 5-2 in Broncos last 7 vs. AFC West.
Over is 4-1 in Chargers last 5 games in October.


Free Betting Pick: LA Chargers -1.5


Hard to have any faith in this Broncos team after Denver's terrible loss at home to previous winless Giants. Losing is one thing but the struggling offense showed little ability to move the ball - nothing changes on road against talented Chargers defense. Final Score Prediction, Los Angeles Chargers win and cover ATS 23-13.

[bmd1803]

Bengals at Steelers 10/22/17 - NFL Picks & Predictions

by Jim

Latest Odds : PIT -5.5 Total 41

Coming back from a bye week the Bengals will face rival Pittsburgh. However, if history holds true the Bengals will look like the bye week had them all vacationing in Tahiti and the Cincinnati team will look a little bit disjointed. If the Bengals were smart, though, they would have taken the time to work on the offense.

Leading the rushing attack for the Bengals have been Joe Mixon. Mixon has carried the ball 67 times for a single score and has managed only 187 yards on the season.


Pittsburgh is coming into this game after a very controlling game over the Chiefs in the last outing. That outing is really going to help the Steelers know the resolve they have is going to help them out quite a bit and help them control a lot of the teams that they should be able to beat.

Le'Veon Bell is able to really take care of the Steelers offense on the year and grind the clock out. Bell has managed to carry the ball 134 times for 550 yards and 4 touchdowns.


Recent Betting Trends:
Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Under is 23-9 in Bengals last 32 games overall.
Under is 35-15-1 in Steelers last 51 games following a straight up win.


Free Betting Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5


After starting the year 0-2 the Bengals have bounce back to go 2-1 straight up and 3-0 ATS in last 3 games. Cincinnati is also healthy coming off Bye week while the Steelers are banged up and coming off emotional road win against Chiefs. Close game with Bengals having shot to win this late. Final Score Prediction, Cincinnati Bengals win in upset but grab the points 24-23

[bmd1803]

Falcons at Patriots 10/22/17 - NFL Picks & Predictions

by Thomas

Latest Odds : NE -3.5 Total 54.5
The New England Patriots have now won two straight games. The Patriots find a way to beat the Jets last week and now get set to host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night football. New England is 4-2 on the season and are 1-2 on their home field this season.

QB Tom Brady will be at the helm for the Patriots once again. Brady has completed 65.7 percent of his passes this season with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions. The Patriots rank 1st in the NFL in yards per game but last in the league in yards allowed per game.


The Atlanta Falcons get a chance at revenge after last years Superbowl. The Falcons do not look like the same team as last season and are 3-2 on the season. Atlanta is 2-0 on the road this season and lost last week on their home field to the Dolphins.

QB Matt Ryan will be taking the snaps for the Falcons. Ryan has completed 65.9 percent of his throws this season with six touchdowns and six interceptions. The Falcons rank 5th in the NFL in yards per game and 10th in the league in yards allowed.


Recent Betting Trends:
Falcons are 2-3 ATS this season.
Patriots are 2-4 ATS this season.
Over is 4-2 in Patriots last 6 games.
Under is 3-2 in Falcons last 5 games.


Free Betting Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3.5


Take the Falcons plus the points on Sunday night. Both offenses will move the ball but the Falcons defense is a lot better than the Patriots. The Patriots offense has some key injuries and will have their hands full. Grab the free points. Final Score Prediction, New England Patriots win but fall short of ATS cover 35-33.

[bmd1803]

Redskins at Eagles 10/23/17 - NFL Picks & Predictions

by Eddie

Latest Odds : PHI -4.5 Total 48

Monday Night Football will feature an NFC showdown between the Washington Redskins and Philadelphia Eagles from Lincoln Financial Field. The Redskins lost their season opener at home versus the Eagles, but have rallied to win three of their last four games. On Sunday, Washington raced out to a 17-point lead and held on for a 26-24 home victory versus San Francisco. Kirk Cousins threw for 330 yards and two touchdowns for the Redskins on the afternoon.

Through six games, Washington ranks 6th in total offense and is scoring 23.4 points on average. Philadelphia comes into this game with a defense that ranks 19th in yards allowed and surrenders 20.3 points per contest.


The Philadelphia Eagles have won five of their first six games overall and are emerging as one of the best teams in the National Football League. Second year QB Carson Wentz has thrown for 1,584 yards and 13 touchdowns and has helped the Eagles open up a two-game division lead in the NFC East. On Thursday, Wentz threw for 222 yards and three touchdowns to lead Philadelphia to a 28-23 road triumph over Carolina.

Philadelphia comes into this contest ranked third in total offense and scoring 27.5 points on average. Washington is very improved on defense, ranking 5th in yards allowed and giving up 22.6 points per game.


Recent Betting Trends:
Washington is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games on the road.
Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia.
Philadelphia is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington.


Free Betting Pick: OVER 48


Washington CB Josh Norman (ribs, lung) was unable to suit up last week, but could return to action for this game. Four Washington turnovers were the difference in their season opening 30-17 loss versus Philadelphia. Look for Cousins and company to take better care of the ball on Monday night and help push this game over the total. Final Score Prediction, Philadelphia Eagles win but fall short ATS 32-28.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #7 - BELMONT PARK - 4:13 PM EASTERN POST
The English Channel Stakes
8.0 FURLONGS TURF THREE YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#3 LET'S GET LOUD
#7 YOU'RE TO BLAME
#6 NO DOZING
#2 LUNAIRE

This race honors the career of English Channel, who was trained by Todd Pletcher. In four years of racing, he competed in twenty three races, winning thirteen, finishing second in four, and finishing third in one. His final victory came at the 2007 Breeders' Cup Turf, where he set a record for this race when he won by seven lengths. Following this race, he was retired to stud in Lexington, Kentucky. Here in just the 3rd running of The Channel, #3 LET'S GET LOUD, the pace profile leader, has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of his four career starts to date, hitting the board in three, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. #7 YOU'RE TO BLAME, the morning line favorite, has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of his last five starts.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Turf. Purse: $65000 Class Rating: 98

INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN 5/1

# 3 SANDY'Z SLEW 7/2

# 9 YUMMY BEAR 4/1

SPEIGHTFUL KITTEN gets the edge as the wager in here. Going in a turf sprint race gives this gelding a quite good shot. SANDY'Z SLEW - Has been running admirably lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. Ran a strong last race. YUMMY BEAR - This gelding is a solid choice based on his earnings per start in turf sprint races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Century Downs

Century Downs - Race 8

Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick Four (Races 8,9,10,11)


Claiming $12,500 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 4:16P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Lone Front-runner. THISDEWARSFORYOU is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THISDEWARSFORYOU: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start a fter a layoff. SPECTRUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DONNA'S BOY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. XTREME DENIGRAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2
THISDEWARSFORYOU
15/1

7/2
1
SPECTRUS
2/1

6/1
3
DONNA'S BOY
10/1

9/1
4
XTREME DENIGRAY
7/2

10/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27000 Class Rating: 90

FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 1 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON THE OPEN FIRST CONDITION


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 GENERALLY LUCKY 7/2

# 5 OLDTOYTRAIN 10/1

# 6 INTIMIDATE 2/1

GENERALLY LUCKY is the strongest bet in this race. He has been running soundly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Must be used in the exotic bets. Had one of the most respectable speed figs of this group in his last contest. OLDTOYTRAIN - Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. INTIMIDATE - Exhibits the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 84 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the strongest in this field. This choice will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings

Hastings - Race 2

Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4)


SO $6,250 • 1 1/2 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED IN FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250 OR LESS SINCE APRIL 22, 2017 OR CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 22 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 22 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 22 ALLOWED 6 LBS. $8,250 ONCE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2017 ALLOWED 8 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
Contenders

Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line

Accept
Odds


Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * STEPUPFORTHEMONEY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CITRON KID: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. WHAT GOES AROUND: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IRISH LASS: Horse's win percenta ge at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3
STEPUPFORTHEMONEY
5/1

5/1
6
CITRON KID
6/5

5/1
1
WHAT GOES AROUND
9/5

7/1
5
IRISH LASS
15/1

7/1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Keeneland - Race #6 - Post: 3:51pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $67,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: 3

#9 MOONLIGHT RAIN (ML=7/2)
#2 CUBS WIN (ML=12/1)
#12 ARABELLA BELLA (ML=12/1)


MOONLIGHT RAIN - I like to bet on this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a sharp effort within the last month. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on September 28th at Churchill Downs. Anything close today should get the job done. CUBS WIN - This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Arlington was tops in this bunch. Marquez rode this horse for the first time in the last race and comes right back today. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on September 14th at Arlington. Anything close in today's race should get the job done. ARABELLA BELLA - The October 6th affair at Keeneland was at a class level of (92). Dropping down the class ladder considerably, so she should be in a good spot to take this race. Valdivia and Yanakov perform well when they join forces. It's hard to beat a +157 ROI for a jockey and handler.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 MALIBU SAINT (ML=4/1), #8 VANILLA CAT (ML=4/1), #10 THEWAYIAM (FR) (ML=9/2),

MALIBU SAINT - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this horse as a questionable challenger. VANILLA CAT - This filly notched a rating in her last race which probably isn't good enough today. THEWAYIAM (FR) - Doesn't appear to have enough good aspects to warrant the price.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #9 MOONLIGHT RAIN on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,9,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [2,9,12] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[2,9,12] with [2,9,12] with [2,5,7,9,12] with [2,5,7,9,12] Total Cost: $36

SUPER HIGH FIVE WAGERS:
[2,9,12] with [2,9,12] with [2,7,9,12] with [2,4,5,7,9,12] with [2,4,5,7,9,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Laurel - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating: 3

#12 BATS CLEANUP (ML=12/1)
#6 BRUSHED BY FIRE (ML=6/1)
#1 ALLURING SILVER (ML=5/1)
#4 COLLATERAL DAMAGE (ML=15/1)


BATS CLEANUP - In this race here, this pony has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. Taking a drop in class rating points from his Sep 23rd race at Laurel. Based on that element, I will give this horse the advantage. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 103.2. Very impressive. In my opinion, you need 'class' to be successful on the turf. This one has the highest average Equibase class figure in the field. This colt has a lot of ability on the grass. Could be long gone by the time they turn for home and hit the stretch. BRUSHED BY FIRE - Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a sharp effort on October 4th. Carrying 6 pounds less this race. Trainer has him in a good spot. This horse has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 47 to 60 to 71 in a row. ALLURING SILVER - Ran a fast time for the last quarter on Sep 29th at Laurel. Anything close right here should get the job done. Have to give this gelding a fair chance. Ran a strong contest last time out within the last 30 days. PP lines show this horse with 3 improving Equibase speed figs. Rodriguez should be on a live one right here. COLLATERAL DAMAGE - Taking a class drop in Equibase class figure points from his Sep 23rd race at Laurel. Based on that data point, I will give this one the advantage. Ho and Leatherman partnered together are a punter's friend. I believe the addition of the 'hood' today will help this gelding focus his attention on racing. Look for this one to go wire to wire at some respectable odds in this field. Ran ninth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the finish.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 MAJOR ANTHEM (ML=9/2), #10 BARIN (ML=5/1), #7 A. P. AMERICAIN (ML=6/1),

MAJOR ANTHEM - September 24th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. BARIN - Hard to keep stabbing at this kind of 'hanger' horse. A. P. AMERICAIN - I have some doubts when a pony has bandages added in the last race. Hasn't been getting close at all of late.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#12 BATS CLEANUP is going to be the play if we are getting 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6,12]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[6,12] with [1,4,6,12] with [1,4,6,12] with [1,3,4,6,7,12] with [1,3,4,6,7,12] Total Cost: $72

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential Week 7 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Sunday

Le'Veon Bell and the Steelers are 19-7-2 against the spread in their last 28 meetings with the rival Bengals. Pittsburgh is a 5.5-point home fave this time around.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 38)

Points are hard to come by for the Miami Dolphins. The Jay Cutler-led offense ranks last in points per game at 12.2 and the under is 5-0 in Miami games this season.

Don’t expect a spike in touchdowns this week against the Jets. Dolphins deep-threat DaVante Parker is listed as doubtful for Sunday’s game because of an ankle injury.

LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the Fish as 3-point favorites with a bit of extra juice to back the home side, although there were a few 3.5s on the board. Miami remains 3-point chalk heading into the weekend. The total opened as high as 39 but all shops are dealing 38.5 or 38.

TRENDS:

*The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games.
*The Jets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games against Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-3, 44)

Jameis Winston will be the starting quarterback for the Bucs on Sunday at Buffalo against the Bills. Winston sprained the AC joint in his throwing shoulder last weekend against the Arizona Cardinals and was forced to sit out.

He didn’t practice much during the week but head coach Dirk Koetter saw enough from Winston during Friday’s practice to tell reporters his No. 1 QB would be under center against the Bills. The Bucs will turn to veteran signal caller Ryan Fitzpatrick should Winston’s injury worsen against the Bills.

LINE HISTORY: Not much history to this line. Sportsbooks opened the spread today after news broke that Winston would in fact start at quarterback for TB.

TRENDS:

*The Bucs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Over is 9-1 in the Bills’ last 10 home games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 43.5)

Before you bet on this game you might want to check on Jags running back Leonard Fournette’s status. He missed the last three days of practice this week with a bad right ankle but head coach Doug Marrone won’t rule out the possibility of Fournette taking the field on Sunday.

Fournette’s 732 yards from scrimmage account for 35 percent of Jacksonville’s total offensive yards gained this season and he’s scored seven of his team’s 14 touchdowns.

LINE HISTORY: Mostly all Jags -3 on the betting board but we did see a few -3.5 earlier in the week. The total opened at 44 and has been bet down to 43.5.

TRENDS:

*The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Colts.
*The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 matchups between these two sides.
*The Over is 4-0 in the Colts’ last four games.

Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5, 38.5)

The Ravens have a long history of stout defenses over the years but there’s no question which team has the better stopper unit in this matchup. The Vikings are allowing the fifth fewest offensive yards per game and their third down defense is a big part of the reason. Minnesota’s opponent third down conversion rate is the lowest in the NFL at 25 percent.

LINE HISTORY: There’s been a fair amount of movement and different spreads offered on this game throughout the week. Some shops opened with the Ravens getting 4.5 points and, as we head into the weekend, there are a few 6s on the board.

TRENDS:

*The Vikings are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games.
*The Ravens are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 45)

This is the Rams third ever game across the pond in London and second in as many years. They’re 0-2 straight up and against the spread in their previous games in England.

First year head coach Sean McVay is trying a different travel schedule than the one used by his predecessor a year ago. The Rams stayed in Jacksonville after their game on Sunday and didn’t leave for London until Thursday. Last year, former head coach Jeff Fisher had his team leave for London immediately after their game at Detroit.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Rams as 3.5-point chalk but many sportsbooks are now offering it at a field goal spread. The total was originally posted at 47.5 and has been bet down to 46.

TRENDS:

*The Rams are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
*The Over is 7-1 in the Rams’ last eight games overall.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (+4, 47.5)

The Packers usually don’t do very well they use Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay is 3-5 straight up and 2-6 against the spread without Rodgers since he took over the starting duties under center in 2008.

The Packers aren’t accustomed to getting points at Lambeau Field. New Orleans is only the second team to be favored at Green Bay since the start of the 2014 season.

LINE HISTORY: The line was as high as Saints by six and as low as Packers +4. Most shops are dealing the 4-point line entering the weekend. The total can be found at 47.5 and 48.

TRENDS:

*The Saints are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.

*The Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (+3, 40.5)

The Panthers star linebacker Luke Kuechly will not play this weekend against the Chicago Bears. He’s still in concussion protocol after a blow to the head during Week 6 Thursday Night Football against the Eagles.

Carolina is 6-3 ATS in games with Kuechly over the last couple seasons and the under is 5-2-2 in those nine games.

LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 3-point road favorites and there are a few shops now listing them as 3.5-point chalk. The total is holding steady between 40.5 and 41.

TRENDS:

*The Bears are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Panthers’ last four games overall.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 45.5)

You know things have to be bad at the quarterback position if the Browns are sending rookie DeShone Kizer back out back out as the starter. The lowest qualified quarterback rating each year is normally in the mid to high 60s.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had the worst mark last season at 69.6 while Peyton Manning had it the year prior at 67.9. Kizer is carrying a 49.5 rating through five starts this season. That’s 16.6 points below next worst Joe Flacco at 66.1.

LINE HISTORY: The Browns opened as 5.5-point home dogs but many books are now starting to offer Tennessee -6. The total opened at 46.5 and is moving down at some locations by a point to 45.5.

TRENDS:

*The Titans are 5-23-3 in their last 31 games against teams with losing records.
*The Browns are 6-25-1 ATS in their last 32 games.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (+6, 48.5)

At the beginning of the week we were told Ezekiel Elliot would not play this weekend and his six-game suspension would start immediately, but his lawyers were able to get a hearing from an appeals board and he won’t have to serve the suspension until the hearing. That means Zeke will play against the Niners and probably against Washington in Week 8 too.

Elliott has rushed for 80 or more yards in four of Dallas’ five games but the team is still 2-3 SU and ATS on the season.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 6-point road faves and a few shops have bumped them up a half point to 6.5. The total opened at 47 and now rests at 48.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
*The 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
*The Under is 12-3 in the Cowboys last 15 road games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 40.5)

The Bengals just might have all the tools to make it another difficult day at the office for Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Cincy gets pressure on opposing quarterbacks at a league-leading rate of 34 percent this campaign (hat tip to ESPN’s Katherine Terrell).

Big Ben has been pressured on only 15.2 percent of his dropbacks but he owns just a 72.5 passer rating when facing a blitz.

LINE HISTORY: The spread opened with the home side giving six points but it’s come down to Steelers -5 as we enter the weekend. The total opened at 42.5 and has dropped to 40.5.

TRENDS:

*The Under is 5-1 in the last six games between these two sides.
*The Bengals are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (Pick, 40.5)

The Chargers are returning home but that might not be a good thing. The team is still seeking its first win since moving its home from San Diego to Los Angeles. The Bolts are 0-3 SU and ATS at the StubHub Center in Carson – a stadium normally used for housing MLS games – not NFL ones.

The Chargers have always had one of the weaker home field advantages in the NFL – even when they played in San Diego. The club is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 home games.

LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Chargers giving a point but it moved down to a pick and a few shops now even list the Broncos as 1-point faves. The total opened at 42.5 but has been bet down to 41.

TRENDS:

*The road team is 10-3-2 ATS in the last 15 games played between these two divisional rivals.

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants (+4, 40)

The Giants already showed their offense was pretty vanilla this season, but losing wideout Odelll Beckham Jr. removes a big-play element that will be sorely missed against the Seahawks.
Seattle’s defense surrenders touchdowns when their opponents are inside the red zone only 23 percent of the time. That’s the best mark in the league. Eli Manning will find it difficult to dink and dunk passes once the end zone approaches.

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened as 6-point road favorites but the line is dropping at all books – so as low as Seattle -4. The total opened at 38.5 and has been moved up a point or a point and a half depending on the sportsbook.

TRENDS:

*The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
*The Under is 5-1 in the Giants’ last six home games.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots (-3, 56.5)

Matt Ryan does not look like the league MVP from a year ago. He’s thrown as many interceptions as he has touchdowns and the Falcons have lost two straight SU and ATS – both at home against mediocre AFC East competition.

Ryan finished last season with a 117.1 QB rating. This season he’s carrying around an 87.3 rating – a 29.8 rating drop. Getting No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu back in the fold on Sunday should give Ryan a boost.

LINE HISTORY: The big movement in this game came on the total. The over/under line opened as low as 53.5 and is now as high as 56.5.

TRENDS:

*Atlanta is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games.
*The Over is 8-2 in New England’s last 10 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 18
David Schwab

Week 17 Betting Recap

Last weekend in the CFL, the favorites once again took it on the chin against the spread starting with Calgary’s close call in a tight 28-25 road victory against Hamilton as a heavy 9 ½-point favorite. In last Friday’s other action, Ottawa beat Saskatchewan outright as a 3 ½-point road underdog in a wild 33-32 victory.

Saturday’s doubleheader started with Winnipeg covering by the thinnest of margins in a 26-20 victory as a 5 ½-point home favorite against British Columbia. Edmonton closed things out by upending Toronto 30-27, but it could not cover as a seven-point favorite at home.


Sunday, Oct. 22

Hamilton Tiger-Cats (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) vs. Montreal Alouettes (3-12 SU, 4-11 ATS)

Point-spread: Hamilton -2.5
Total: 51

Game Overview

Give credit to the Tiger-Cats for putting forth a solid effort down the stretch. After losing their first eight games of the season SU, they have gone 4-3 SU over their last seven games. While it is still a case of too little, too late this team is still in position to play the role of spoiler with a road game against Ottawa sandwiched in between this home-and home series against Montreal to close out the year.

The Alouettes have been riding out the string for quite some time now and coming off last week’s bye they are still in the midst of an eight-game losing streak both SU and ATS. Early in the year defense was a strong suit for Montreal, but this unit has been torched for at least 29 points in all eight of those recent losses. On the year, it is allowing an average of 31.3 points per game.

Betting Trends

-- This will be the first meeting this season and coming into this East Division tilt the road team has won four of the last five meetings SU while going a perfect 5-0 ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in five of the last six meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Long Sheet

Week 18

Sunday, October 22

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HAMILTON (4 - 11) at MONTREAL (3 - 12) - 10/22/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HAMILTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HAMILTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
MONTREAL is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
MONTREAL is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MONTREAL is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MONTREAL is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in home games in October games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-2 against the spread versus HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 3-3 straight up against HAMILTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 18

Trend Report

Sunday, October 22

HAMILTON @ MONTREAL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hamilton's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Montreal is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing at home against Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Montreal's last 6 games when playing Hamilton

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL
Dunkel

Week 18


Sunday, October 22

Hamilton @ Montreal

Game 657-658
October 22, 2017 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Hamilton
115.013
Montreal
98.566
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Hamilton
by 16 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Hamilton
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Hamilton
(-3); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Hamilton (4-11) @ Montreal (3-12)— Spunky Ti-Cats are 5-2 vs spread in last seven games, losing tough 28-25 game to Calgary LW. Hamilton won 3 of last 4 series games, winning 23-11, 31-7 in last two visits here. Under is 9-3 in last 12 series games. Ti-Cats are 4-3 in last seven games after an 0-8 start; they covered their last four road games. Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Alouettes are in the tank, losing their last eight games (0-8 vs spread); Montreal lost its last four home games, by 8-28-18-18 points. Over is 4-1 in their last five games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

When: 7:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 22, 2017
Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Matchup Edge

VAN	Edge in:	DET
	Offense
	Defense
	Power Play
	Penalty Kill
	Face Offs
	Discipline
	Goaltending

Preview: Canucks at Red Wings

Gracenote
Oct 21, 2017

The Detroit Red Wings suffered through a gauntlet of Eastern Conference heavyweights earlier in the week without a win and seek to end the string when they host the Vancouver Canucks on Sunday night. The Red Wings dropped games against Tampa Bay and Toronto before coughing up a late lead in a 5-4 overtime setback against Washington at home Friday.

“We did a lot of good things again,” Detroit captain Henrik Zetterberg told reporters after Alex Ovechkin’s overtime power-play goal Friday. “We’ve got to stay the course here. We’ve lost three in a row, but I can’t really say we’ve been playing bad. We’ve got to keep our heads high and keep working on things.” The Red Wings won’t have it easy with the Canucks, who rallied to knock off Buffalo 4-2 on Friday to improve to 2-1-0 on their five-game road swing. “We were assertive tonight,” Vancouver defenseman Michael Del Zotto told Sportsnet afterward. “We had a lot of shifts (where) we were in their zone for 45 seconds or a minute. When you’re in there for sustained periods, you know it’s going to lead to scoring chances and, of course, goals.” Forward Derek Dorsett had two goals to push his team-leading total to four in seven games after scoring six combined in the previous two seasons.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TVA, Sportsnet, Sportsnet 360 (Vancouver), FSN Detroit

ABOUT THE CANUCKS (3-3-1): Former first-round pick Jake Virtanen was placed on a line with veterans Henrik and Daniel Sedin against Buffalo and he responded with his first point of the season on an assist. “I think it was his best game,” Vancouver coach Travis Green told Sportsnet of Virtanen. “I think he got some energy off playing with Hank and Danny. You know when you play with them it’s a pretty good opportunity. Somebody has to stick there.” The Sedins, who have combined for more than 2,000 career points, each have only three in the early going and the Vancouver power play has struggled (4-for-35).

ABOUT THE RED WINGS (4-3-1): Tomas Tatar has lifted his level of play the last two games with three goals and fellow forward Darren Helm scored for the first time this season in Friday’s setback. Defenseman Mike Green tops the team with 10 points (nine on assists) while Zetterberg and fellow forward Dylan Larkin are next with nine apiece and Anthony Mantha has seven, but the right wing has been scoreless with a minus-5 rating over the last three games. Forward Andreas Athanasiou was finally signed to a one-year contract Friday, but it will take him up to a week to acquire a work visa.

OVERTIME

1. Canucks C Bo Horvat leads the team with 21 shots and owns three goals while winning 55.3 percent of his faceoffs.

2. The Red Wings cleared cap space for Athanasiou's contract by trading C Riley Sheahan to Pittsburgh in exchange for F Scott Wilson.

3. Vancouver D Erik Gudbranson is expected back in the lineup after serving a one-game suspension for an illegal hit.

PREDICTION: Red Wings 4, Canucks 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Trends - Vancouver at Detroit

W/L TRENDS

Vancouver

Canucks are 23-47 in their last 70 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canucks are 16-35 in their last 51 overall. Canucks are 16-37 in their last 53 road games. Canucks are 17-41 in their last 58 games playing on 1 days rest. Canucks are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Atlantic. Canucks are 8-22 in their last 30 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. Canucks are 9-25 in their last 34 vs. Eastern Conference. Canucks are 2-8 in their last 10 Sunday games. Canucks are 2-10 in their last 12 games following a win. Canucks are 1-5 in their last 6 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation.

Detroit

Red Wings are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. Western Conference. Red Wings are 5-11 in their last 16 Sunday games.

OU TRENDS

Vancouver

Over is 4-0-1 in Canucks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 7-1-1 in Canucks last 9 games following a win. Over is 4-1 in Canucks last 5 overall. Over is 4-1 in Canucks last 5 road games. Over is 3-1-1 in Canucks last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation. Under is 3-1-1 in Canucks last 5 Sunday games. Over is 3-1-1 in Canucks last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Over is 3-1-1 in Canucks last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

Detroit

Over is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 vs. Western Conference. Over is 5-0-2 in Red Wings last 7 vs. Pacific. Over is 6-1 in Red Wings last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 6-1 in Red Wings last 7 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Red Wings last 6 overall. Over is 5-1-2 in Red Wings last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 19-7-2 in Red Wings last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

HEAD TO HEAD

Under is 5-2-2 in the last 9 meetings. Canucks are 2-6 in the last 8 meetings. Canucks are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NHL
Dunkel

Sunday, October 22

Vancouver @ Detroit

Game 1-2
October 22, 2017 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Vancouver
11.597
Detroit
10.563
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Vancouver
by 1
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
-150
5 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Vancouver
(+130); Over