Monday 10-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVE COKIN

76ERS AT PISTONS
PLAY: 76ERS +3.5

Philadelphia is still looking for its initial win of the new season. Expectations are the highest they’ve been in some time for the Sixers, so this 0-3 start already has the fan base unhappy. I can’t blame them a bit for that opinion, particularly off a very bad game against the Raptors.

But no complaints as far as Ben Simmons is concerned. No rust either, as Simmons has shown no indications of any physical worries coming off his injury.

Tobias Harris has looked really good for the Pistons, and Andre Drummond is shooting 100% from the foul line, which is actually astonishing. I don’t think this is a good team, but Detroit has been a bit of a surprise to start the season.

Bottom line for me on this game is that I still have the 76ers power rated higher than the Pistons, and that would indicate they have a little value as road dogs tonight. Just a lean, as I’ve decided to go very slowly out of the gate in the NBA until I have more data to work with. But if you’re looking for a little Monday pro hoops action, I’d opt for Philly here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Charlotte vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Milwaukee -6.5

The Bucks have opened 2-1 (lost 116-97 at home to Cleveland on Friday) but no one has come close to stopping Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has scored at least 34 points in each of his first three games and put up a career-high 44 on 17-of-23 shooting in Saturday's 113-110 win over Portland. The Charlotte Hornets are the next team to try their hand at slowing down the "Greek Freak," when they visit the Bradley Center on Monday. Charlotte has opened 1-1, rallying from 20 points down to top the Hawks 109-91 on Friday night, after losing 102-90 at Detroit last Wednesday to the Pistons.

The Hornets utilized a 24-0 run in the third quarter in that Friday win over the Hawks, overcoming a second straight sloppy effort that featured 15 first-half turnovers. Kemba Walker scored 26 points and after becoming an All Star last season, has begun the new year averaging 25.0-5.0-6.0. The Hornets acquired Dwight Howar in the off-season and the 13-year veteran is averaging a double-double (15.0 points & 15.0 rebounds) through the first two games but there is still a bit of an adjustment period both for Howard and his teammates. Cody Zeller was the starting center last season but has been moved to a reserve role behind Howard. He missed Friday's win (knee) and will probably be on the bench at Milwaukee. However, the Hornets are hoping that forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist can make his season debut after he was away from the team following the death of his grandmother.

"This is just the beginning," the 22-year-old Antetokounmpo told reporters. "I'm not done yet. We've got 79 more games plus playoffs, hopefully. It's just the beginning." Antetokounmpo is averaging 38.3-9.7-5.0 and has connected on 67.2 percent from the floor! Macolm Brogdon got more and more "PT" last year as the season wore on and with Embiid limited to 31 games, 'stole' the ROY award. He's the team's starting PG coming into this season and has opened averaging 16.0 PPG and 3.7 APG. Charlotte has had Milwaukee's number recently, winning 11 of the last 14 meetings but has dropped two in a row to the Bucks. This is now the "Antetokounmpo Era" and the Bucks should have little trouble at home against teams like the Hornets. Lay the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +5½ over PHILADELPHIA

The last time we saw the Redskins was last week at home to San Francisco and as a 10-point choice, Washington narrowly escaped, 26-24. The ‘Skins dodged a bullet by a team the Cowboys destroyed yesterday. The Redskins are now 3-2 with victories over the Rams, Raiders and 49ers. They also lost at home to these same Eagles in Week 1, back in D.C. by a score of 30-17. The general feeling out there is that the Redskins are improved from last year but they are a second tier NFC team that is not in the same class as the true contenders in the conference (like Philadelphia) while the Eagles are damn close to being the best team in the league or the favorite to win the Super Bowl. When you get behind these overly-hyped teams, there is always a price to pay, especially in prime time. You will pay that price to back the home team here and it’s a risk not worth taking.

Philadelphia is 5-1 with only loss occurring against Kansas City in a game they could’ve easily won. They also have a QB that is getting headlines. Carson Wentz has thrown 13 touchdowns against only three interceptions. He's thrown for three 300 yard games and his best efforts are at home. Wentz passed for seven scores over the last two games and opened the year with 307 yards and two scores in Washington. It would be very easy to get behind the Eagles here because a good case can be made for doing so but don’t allow the media to convince you of something that has yet to be proven. Yes, Philadelphia is good but they might be the second best team here. Defensively, the Eagles are definitely the second best team here.

The Giants scored 24 on the Eagles defense and nearly beat them. The Chargers scored 24 also and should’ve beaten them. Last week in Carolina, Cam Newton threw three picks otherwise Carolina would’ve beaten them also. The Eagles only convincing win this season was against the heartless and old Cardinals by a score of 34-7. What’s more interesting is that Philadelphia was at home against Arizona and was a six-point favorite and now they’re almost the exact same price against the Redskins? That can’t be. Each of Philadelphia’s other five games came down to the wire. We could easily be discussing a team that is 1-5, 2-4, 3-3 or 4-2 as opposed to a 5-1 team because that’s how close the Eagles have come to losing a bunch of games. As the wins pile up, so do expectations and pressure to win. Remember last year when the Eagles started out on fire too but ended up losing nine of its last 13 games? Yes, the Eagles are better this year and Carson Wentz is a year older but heavy is the favorite's crown and few teams learn to wear it without some trial and error. The Eagles had no expectations last year but now expectations are through the roof.

Washington’s two losses this year were to Philadelphia and K.C. They were the better team against the Chiefs and were driving for the winning TD against Philadelphia before a turnover made the score look far worse than it was. The Redskins are stacked. Defensively, they do not relent for a second and play with as much ferociousness as any team in the NFL. The Redskins defense has talent in spades and a nasty attitude to go with it. The offense is also good. Remember, the ‘Skins were built by former GM Scot McCloughan, who is widely considered to be one of best evaluators ever. He was fired last year for showing up drunk to work (allegations) but the point is that he built this team to win. Contrary to public perception, Philadelphia is not spectacular. They give up big plays constantly and could easily find itself in a hole here that may be tough to dig out of. The ‘Skins have a big edge on defense and they are the more balanced team here taking back some significant points in prime time. Pencil us in for that.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS WAGERS

San Jose +105 over N.Y. RANGERS

Before we begin and until further notice, we’re going to be splitting up our NHL underdogs into two bets. We’re playing them straight up for 1 unit and we’ll be playing them on the reverse puck line (-1½) for 1 unit, thus making up our traditional 2 unit bet. The thinking is that if the dog loses, we lose our bet anyway. If the game goes into OT, which is a coin-toss anyway, we lose our -1½ bet but have a chance to profit a pork-chop if we happen to get lucky and win it in the extra time. If our team is winning by a goal, we know for sure we’ll get a crack at an empty netter and there is also a good chance that if our team is ahead, it might be by more than one goal anyway. Therefore, our bet for this game and every dog we play will be -1½ for 1 unit and straight up for one unit.

OT included. The Rangers are coming off a 4-2 win on Saturday against the Predators that broke a nasty five-game losing streak. That works in our favor because a win is a win is a win and it looks good on paper. Thing is, the Rags mustered a mere 15 shots on net against Nashville and played most of the game in their own end. New York has surrendered 220 scoring chances against and only one team, the Penguins have surrendered more (223). Incidentally, Pittsburgh has a 10-1 loss and a 7-1 loss this year, which is a strong indication of what can happen when you constantly give up a barrage of scoring chances. Analytically, the Rags are a wasteland and above the surface it’s much of the same. New York is 1-4 against top-10 teams. Its two wins this year were against Nashville and Montreal and they were badly outshot in both. The New York Rangers will not outplay the Sharks here and if they win, it’ll be all luck driven, based on in-game variance.

We played the Sharks on Saturday and they lost 5-3 in Brooklyn to the Islanders. They lost because Thomas Greiss was better than Aaron Dell. Goaltending decides many games in the NHL but tonight, we trust we have the edge with Martin Jones against Queen Henrik. The Sharks have outshot and outplayed every one of their opponents this year but one. San Jose is 3-2 over its last five games with both losses over that span occurring against the Islanders. However, San Jose outshot the Islanders by a ridiculous combined count of 72-46. That’s equivalent to what the Panthers did to the Bears yesterday under the hood. If you played San Jose along with us on Saturday, don’t be discouraged by the result. The Sharks are a top-3 possession team and coming off a loss only makes them hungrier. Wrong side favored.

The bets are as follows:

San Jose -1½ +2.67 for 1 unit

San Jose +105 for 1 unit

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Balfe

Redskins/Eagles Over 49

This is going to be a great NFC East showdown tonight in Philadelphia. The Eagles can put a strangle hold on their division with a win this evening. Washington can get right back in the with a win tonight. Philadelphia won the earlier match up this season so it will be that much harder for them to do so again tonight. You can throw out much of the stats in any divisional game. When the Redskins have the ball they have a very good offensive line, but lack depth with injury so they have to hope nobody gets hurt. This Skins team is well balanced with the running game and passing attack. Kurt Cousins is accurate and can take off with his feet. The Redskins have a bunch of tight ends that can catch the ball and many formations that are hard to defend. The Eagles have a great front seven so this will be a very good matchup all night. Carson Wentz is on his way to possibly being the MVP this year. The Eagles tonight will have a great shot at a lot of points with the Redskins Secondary being a complete mess due to injury. The Eagles have great tight end play of their own and can play power football with Blount running the ball. I think both offenses have the advantage tonight. This Redskins team will grind and fight to the end and by no means will this be an easy game for the 1st place Eagles. Look for a lot of points from both teams. Take the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Harry Bondi

Redskins / Eagles Under 49

These two teams met in Week 1 and the posted total was the same exact number at 49. That game went under with the Eagles prevailing 30-17, even though Philly connected on a 54-yard bomb for a TD, nailed a 50-yard field goal and there were two defensive scores, including a fumble return for a TD by the Eagles with 30 seconds left in the game. Having said that, we’ll call for another under here tonight as 29 of the last 49 meetings between these two teams has gone under and only once in the last five meetings have they combined for more than 49 points. Go under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles

Strong Opinion – Washington (+4.5) over PHILADELPHIA

The Eagles are scoring nearly 28 points/game this season (6th) but much of that is due to luck. Philadelphia has converted an unsustainable 51% of 3rd downs this season, which will certainly drop given that no team has converted more than 50% of 3rd downs in the last 5 seasons and the teams to do so prior to that had Hall of Fame caliber quarterbacks. The Eagles 3rd down offense ranks first according to my metrics, while their 1st-2nd down offense ranks 30th – I expect them to regress towards the mean on 3rd down moving forward, which will kill more of their drives before they have a chance to score.

Philadelphia’s offense may have a difficult matchup this week against Washington. The Redskins defense ranks 13th in my numbers despite facing three top-10 offenses in five games, including this Eagles team. Furthermore, Washington’s defense has been unlucky in high leverage situations and actually ranks 5th when filtering out 3rd down and redzone plays, which are highly variable and are likely to improve for Washington going forward. The Redskins will likely be without two starting cornerbacks, as Josh Norman is out and Bashaud Breeland is questionable. However, the Redskins have been getting good play from their other cornerbacks too, so the drop probably won’t be that significant and they held San Francisco to 49% completions and 5.0 yards per pass play last week without Norman, which is less than the Niners’ 5.2 yppp season average.

Kirk Cousins pass offense ranks 3rd in my metrics and is improving as he gains familiarity with his new weapons. Cousins has thrown for a combined 9.7 yppp in Washington’s last 3 games after struggling a bit the first two weeks. The Redskins offense has been very unfortunate to lose 1.4 fumbles per game this season (no team last season averaged more than 0.9) and that has made the offense appear to be worse than it actually is.

I rate the Redskins as the better team and the injuries to Washington’s secondary have already been priced into this inflated line. I’ll consider Washington a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Monday, October 23

Monday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Redskins at Eagles

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 49)

When the Philadelphia Eagles step onto the field for Monday's prime-time clash against the visiting Washington Redskins, they will own the best record in the NFL and have a chance to take total control of the NFC East. The Eagles have ripped off four consecutive victories to open a two-game lead on the Redskins as they vie for a sweep of the season series.

Philadelphia won its first three games last season under rookie quarterback Carson Wentz before going into a tailspin, but the team seems better equipped to continue its success this time around. "Having a year together with this team, under Coach, myself, everything, we're just built differently," Wentz told reporters. "We have a different character makeup in that locker room, and we just have a bunch of guys that believe that, no matter the situation, we can find a way to win a ballgame." Washington, which won five straight in the series before dropping a 30-17 decision to the Eagles in the season opener, held on for a 26-24 victory over winless San Francisco last weekend after building an early 17-point lead. The Redskins' only other loss was a 29-20 setback at then-unbeaten Kansas City, which also handed Philadelphia its only defeat.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Redskins (0) - Eagles (-3) + home field (-3) = Eagles -6

LINE HISTORY: The Eagles opened as 5.5-home chalk and early money on the road team has brought that number down a full-point to 4.5, where it currently stands. The total hit the betting board at 48.5 and has been bet up at an even 49.

INJURY REPORT:

Washington - OT Trent Williams (Probable, Knee), LB Ryan Anderson (Probable, Back), LB Mason Foster (Questionable, Shoulder), G Tyler Catalina (Questionable, Concussion), RB Rob Kelley (Questionable, Ankle), S Deshazor Everett (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Bashaud Breeland (Questionable, Knee), S Stefan McClure (Questionable, Knee), CB Josh Norman (Doubtful, Ribs), OT Jonathan Allen I-R, Foot), K Dustin Hopkins (I-R, Hip).

Philadelphia - DT Beau Allen (Probable, Foot), DT Destiny Vaeao (Probable, Wrist), DE Brandon Graham (Probable, Shoulder), LB Jordan Hicks (Probable, Ankle), RB Wendall Smallwood (Probable, Knee), OT Lance Johnson (Probable, Concussion), DT Tim Jernigan (Questionable, Ankle), CB Ronald Darby (Questionable, Ankle), S Jaylen Watkins (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Nigel Bradham (Questionable, Upper Body), WR Mack Hollins (Questionable, Leg)

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 O/U): Quarterback Kirk Cousins had his worst performance in the season opener, but he is coming off a strong three-game stretch and leads the NFC with a 106.4 passer rating. Running back Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. With wideouts Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continuing to struggle, the tight-end tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Linebacker Preston Smith has registered 4.5 of the team's 15 sacks, including one in the season opener.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Wentz entered the weekend fifth in passing yards (1,584) with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions, and during the four-game winning streak has thrown nine scoring passes against only one pick. Moving to the slot has provided a boost for third-year wideout Nelson Agholor, who has recorded four catches and a TD reception in each of the last two games. However, Wentz's top target is tight end Zach Ertz, who hauled in a pair of touchdown passes last week and has been a nemesis for the Redskins - evidenced by an eight-catch, 93-yard performance in Week 1. Philadelphia ranks No. 1 in the league against the run, allowing an average of 65.7 yards, but is surrendering a generous 273.5 passing yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

* Over is 8-0 in Redskins last 8 games following a ATS loss.

* Over is 9-2 in Eagles last 11 vs. NFC East.

* Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home fave Eagles are picking up 55 percent of the action on the spread and Over is grabbing 64 percent of the totals selections.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA betting roadmap: Fading the Heat the right side if Whiteside is out
Al McMordie

Hassan Whiteside is dealing with abone bruise in his left knee and if he misses any time, fading the Heat may not be a bad idea.

Last year we predicted the Golden State Warriors would win the title (at -130 odds) and go 16-0 in the playoffs. Unfortunately, the Warriors won their first 15 postseason games, but lost Game 3 off the Finals. The Dubs (-195) are our pick to win the NBA title again this year but we’ve got a bunch of money to make before then. Let's take a look at the upcoming week's action.

Spread Watch

Golden State hasn’t burst out of the gate to start the new campaign, and, while the club did down the Pelicans at New Orleans, the lone win was sandwiched between two upset losses -- at home against Houston and on the road against Memphis.

Even worse for G-State bettors: Steve Kerr's crew is 0-3 against the spread. There's no doubt that the Warriors are by far the best team in the league, but since their 24-0 start to the 2015-16 season, they've been fairly pedestrian in Vegas, with a 95-86-3 ATS record, including 36-39-3 as road favorites.

This week, the Warriors will travel to Dallas on Monday, before coming back home for dates with Toronto, Washington and Detroit. The game in Dallas looks to be another trouble spot for the Warriors, as defending NBA champs have struggled early in the season as road favorites.

Since 1990, defending champs are just 11-21 ATS within the season's first four games. I look for another ATS loss for the Dubs.

Total Watch

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Many thought the San Antonio Spurs would have a significant drop-off this season what with Tony Parker out for the first few months of this season and Kawhi Leonard’s lingering quad issues.

LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol struggled in the postseason and the Spurs lost key contributors Jonathon Simmons and Dewayne Dedmon left in free agency. But, lo and behold, the Spurs are 2-0 and have the league's best defense (they ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency the last two seasons).

This week, the Spurs will welcome the Raptors to the AT&T Center before hitting the road to face the Heat, Magic and Pacers. The under is 5-0 in the last five matchups between the Magic and Spurs and we see no reason why the streak would end this season. The two games last season went under by 16 and 21 points respectively.

Injury Watch

There have been several high-profile injuries to star players. Gordon Hayward, Chris Paul, Kawhi Leonard and Isaiah Thomas are all currently on the shelf for varying lengths of time. But the Celtics, Rockets, Spurs and Cavs have enough talent to soldier on.

The Miami Heat don’t have the same type of star power on their roster and the injury Hassan Whiteside could be a big short-term blow. Whiteside is out with a bone bruise on his left knee, and is listed as day-to-day.

The Heat center averaged 17 points and 14.1 rebounds in 32.6 minutes per game, and was invaluable for his side. He scored 26 and pulled down 26 boards in Miami's season opener vs. Orlando. Even worse for Miami: Dion Waiters is playing with an injured ankle.

The Heat went 2-3 in the five games Whiteside missed last season and those three losses were against some of the league's worst teams (Suns, Lakers and Pistons).

This week, Miami will host Atlanta, San Antonio and Boston. If there is a silver lining, it's that the Hawks, Spurs and Celtics are also dealing with the absence of key players.

The Hawks lost Dennis Schroder to an ankle injury on Sunday, while the Spurs and Celtics have had much more time to adjust to their player rotations.

Miami's game on Wednesday versus San Antonio is the one we should target to play against the Heat, should Whiteside be in street clothes. San Antonio has a lot of size inside, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol, and Joffrey Lauvergne. And the Spurs have also won nine straight in the series (8-1 ATS).

Schedule Watch

There are six undefeated teams in the NBA, and none more surprising than the Memphis Grizzlies, who are projected to finish with 38 wins, and miss the playoffs. The Grizzlies opened the season with a 12-point win against New Orleans, and followed that up with a double-digit upset win over the Warriors.

Memphis leaves Beale Street this week and will play road games at Houston and Dallas, before returning home to play the same two sides. Monday's game against the Rockets looks to be a great spot to fade the Grizzlies. Our database says undefeated NBA teams off an upset win are just 1-14 SU and 2-13 ATS since 2009, including 0-8 ATS when getting eight or fewer points.