Cody Garbrandt (11-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC)

 Staple info:

Height: 5’7″ Age: 26 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Dominick Cruz (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ UFC bantamweight title
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 32-1 as an amateur boxer
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Creates angles and openings
+ Accurate left hook
+ Improved defense/head movement
^ Fundamental sense of range
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Demonstrates good grappling IQ
^ Scrambles/gets up well



T.J. Dillashaw (15-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
Last fight: Decision win over John Lineker (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Bang Muay Thai (California)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC bantamweight champion
+ 3x NCAA qualifier
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Effectively switches stances
+ Pulls and returns punches well
^ Often punctuates combos with hooks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Solid scrambler =/transitional grappler



Summary:

UFC 217’s co-main event has barnburner written all over it as champ Cody Garbrandt and T.J. Dillashaw finally do battle for the bantamweight title.

Garbrandt, the sitting titleholder, will not only be looking to defend his belt, but also his team’s honor with the rivalry that has unfolded over the past two years.

Dillashaw, the former champ, will be tasked with taking on a former training partner who holds the title he so desperately wants back.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two skilled strikers who have wrestling bases.

Initially entering the sport as a wrestler, we saw Dillashaw steadily evolve out of the scrambling, submission0grappler mold that was influenced by his environment. Embracing the teachings of Duane “Bang” Ludwig, we saw the NCAA qualifier transition into a skilled striker over the past few years.

Like many fighters who are naturally orthodox but switch to southpaw, Dillashaw typically conducts traffic off of his right hand. Whether he is setting up left crosses and power kicks from southpaw, or favoring his uppercuts and overhands from orthodox, it’s Dillashaw’s check-right-hand/jab that is a key to his offense.

Using it to off-beat his opponent’s offensive rhythms, Dillashaw will add to the disarray by incorporating subtle but effective shifts that change the stance (and even angle) of his attack. Nevertheless, Dillashaw’s shifting style is aggressive by nature, which means that he will need to be careful with what is coming back at him.

A power puncher who came up wrestling and boxing, Garbrandt’s skill set and style have been a seamless fit for MMA.

Utilizing feints and forward-pressure to bait exchanges, Garbrandt subtly and slightly moves off center to execute his combinations. Although Garbrandt will usually enter off of his righthand, he does a lot of his cleanup hitting with his left hook, and I feel that punch may serve him well in this fight.

Another layer to the champion’s game is his improvements in regards to head movement and angles. He’s a longtime cross-hook connoisseur, and we now see Garbrandt roll appropriately behind his crosses to avoid check-hook counters as he comes up with hooks of his own.

That said, Garbrandt’s brawling sensibilities have shown themselves in past fights, sometimes lowering his hands in pocket exchanges. Despite Garbrandt’s heightened sense of spatial awareness and defense, he could get taxed by a check-hook or head kick himself if he’s not careful.

Regardless of how the standing exchanges go, it is in the wrestling department where things could get potentially interesting. Both fighters possess excellent wrestling abilities but utilize them in different ways.

Dillashaw, whose underrated ground game was on display in his last bout, primarily uses his wrestling to score late-round takedowns or to keep the fight standing. Garbrandt also uses his wrestling to keep fights standing, but seemingly keeps a double-leg ready, using it to reset or recover when catching himself over-committing to punches on the inside.

Albeit a small sample-size, Garbrandt appears to have good positional awareness and grappling IQ on the mat. However, I still slightly lean toward Dillashaw in regards to grappling advantages given his past proclivities and overall experience.

For that reason, I will be interested to see if Dillashaw has the intent to fight on the floor, much less the ability to get Garbrandt down. Should either man find success in grounding the other, I do not suspect that the stanzas will last long given their scrambling ability.

In what is arguably the closest the fight on the card surprisingly has the most logical betting lines attached.

According to Las Vegas odd, Garbrandt, the champ, is slightly favored over Dillashaw to win this fight. Even though I feel that Dillashaw is the more diverse fighter with multiple paths to victory, Garbrandt’s ever-growing evolution can be hard to bet against, especially after what we saw last December.

Ultimately, this is a contest that is hard to confidently pick a winner on paper – and it gets even dicier when looking at it off paper.

Whenever two former training partners fight each other, it often makes for a slightly awkward, high-intangible affair. Coupled with the factors of Dillashaw’s camp jumping and Garbrandt’s recent back issues, and forecasting the action becomes even more difficult than usual.

If both men come in near their previous best, then I suspect that Garbrandt’s heavy-handed counters – fueled by his footspeed – will make the difference. Dillashaw’s volume and diversity of attack will make this battle competitive on cards, but I see Garbrandt’s ring generalship and power-punches punctuating rounds, possibly even earning himself a stoppage if the champion finds his timing early.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Garbandt inside the distance