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Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw
Anton Tabuena: Even if we ignore the team drama that surrounds this contest, this is still a really intriguing match up stylistically. On paper, it seems like Garbrandt is faster, has better hands and bigger power, while Dillashaw has more diversity, better footwork, better kicks, and possibly a better judge of distance as well. To add to those clash in styles, both men are very familiar with what each other brings to the table, making it a possible x-factor that bridges the gap in some of these advantages. All in all, those things make this a bout that really piques my interest.
Cruz is a master of footwork, movement and distance, and Garbrandt passed that test with flying colors. TJ is more dangerous offensively than Cruz, but this makes me believe that when others struggle with TJ’s “unorthodox” style and movement, Cody wouldn’t -- especially with the familiarity they have. Couple that with a speed and power advantage, this is why I am leaning towards the champ keeping his belt. I definitely could be wrong, and x-factors like emotion and knowing each other’s tendencies could swing it either way, but I think it will be
Cody Garbrandt by TKO.
Ryan Davies: T.J is the superior striker. Superior footwork, superior timing and superior fight IQ. Garbrandt will get frustrated early when he doesn’t land clean and headhunt the rest of the fight losing every round.
Dillashaw Unanimous Decision
Eddie Mercado: Garbrandt’s recent surgery could be a thing here, but until I see him lose, I can’t really pick against him.
Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: Great fight here with so much to love about it. I’m a big fan of TJ’s style in there - it’s a style I tend to favor, while Cody seems more of the pure KO artist. Those KO type fighters are always a bit tough to predict in my eyes. Like the first Chuck/Randy fight, it feels like there’s always a path to beating this style of fighter if you can find it. My gut instinct is that Dillashaw can indeed find it, using his movement, volume, and game planning to score the points. What holds me back somewhat is that I could have written that exact same sentence about Dominick Cruz, and he did not find any success. So what does Dillashaw have that Cruz doesn’t? Answer: the knowledge of Garbrandt and the drive. Is that enough to turn the tide? I’m going to say it is.
TJ Dillashaw, decision
Ram Gilboa: It’s a five rounds fight, that’ll play out on the feet. Two very good strikers, I’ll go with the puncher.
Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 2
Victor Rodriguez: I know that MMAth is for suckers and rubes, but if Cruz couldn’t hurt Cody consistently, how can TJ? Garbrandt not only showed off his boxing skills, but his wrestling was on point and his attacks on the ground were good. We might see Dillashaw on his back eating a few elbows, which would be impressive. I’m not sure that TJ has the answers in his toolkit to deal with the range, length, pressure, and counters that Garbrandt has. The king stays king.
Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 5.
Zane Simon: Garbrandt can match Dillashaw for speed and footwork, and should be able to scramble with him on the mat. Dillashaw holds the edge in volume striking, but Garbrandt is more capable fighting going forwards and backwards, while Dillashaw has trouble off his back foot. If Dillashaw has to keep coming forward, then he likely has to keep giving Garbrandt chances to counter him and land the better shots each round.
Cody Garbrandt by decision.
Staff picking Garbrandt: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Dillashaw: Davies, Fraser
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Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas
Anton Tabuena: Much like the main event, this is a bout where I think all the cards are stacked against the challenger, but I’m still hoping they both somehow push through those perceived disadvantages and pull off an improbable victory. After seeing tidbits of her growth and struggles both inside and outside the cage, I just can’t help but root for Namajunas here. Unfortunately, I think it would be very tough to outstrike or create enough nice scrambles to capitalize against Joanna, who has shown to be a dominant striking machine who is incredibly tough to take down and equally dangerous in the clinch.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk by Decision.
Eddie Mercado: I love Rose! Now with that being said, she is going to get outclassed on the feet and will flounder at getting the fight to the ground.
JJ by Unanimous Decision.
Ryan Davies: I would love this fight 2 years from now, Joanna champion is in the midst of her prime and Rose is on the cusp of achieving her potential. Rose won’t be able to out strike Jedrzejczyk and if Andrade couldn’t get Joanna down I don’t see how Namajunas will.
Jedrzejczyk Unanimous Decision
Victor Rodriguez: Rose is a fantastic fighter, but she’s lacking in handspeed and movement compared to what is probably the best pure striker in the UFC right now - male or female. Joanna’s got excellent takedown defense, tremendous pressure, great cardio, and killer finishing instinct. It’s gonna be hard to land shots when you’re dealing with a buzzsaw like JJ. I trust Trevor Wittman to break things down in a manner that allows for Rose to create opportunities for her offense to break through, as well as being mindful of Joanna’s offense. I’m just not sure Rose is ready for this big a step up. Either way, we’re getting a hell of a fight, and you should be amped for this.
Joanna Champion by decision.
Zane Simon: Beyond an edge in striking power, there really aren’t many advantages for Namajunas. Her hands aren’t as fast, her clinch game isn’t as complex, and trying to wrestle JJ is often a recipe for disaster.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk via Decision.
Staff picking Joanna: Bissell, Ram, Phil, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Tim
Staff picking Namajunas:
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Jorge Masvidal vs. Stephen Thompson
Anton Tabuena: If Masvidal actually takes it to Thompson, we might be in for a real treat, but there’s also a decent chance this becomes yet another staring contest sprinkled in with a few fancy kicks. I really hope it’s the former, but if that happens, I think this is where Thompson could shine.
Stephen Thompson by decision.
Eddie Mercado: Man, this is a tough one. I really want to call this a draw, but since Masvidal has an uncanny ability to lose a split decision, I’ll just go ahead with that.
Stephen Thompson by razor thin split decision.
Ryan Davies: This could be a striking masterpiece or two guys waiting around for the other to throw. Masvidal 2.0 is a fighter that isn’t leaving his future in the hands of the judges, but getting overly aggressive against Thompson and his Daniel Russo like skills could spell disaster. Masvidal, in my opinion is top 3 pound for pound when it comes to mma striking,he doesn’t possess one punch power but the cumulative damage will get it done.
Masvidal Knockout 3rd
Phil Mackenzie: This feels like such a Masvidal fight- he could well win it by marching inside, feinting the jab, disrupting Wonderboy's stance with kicks, and attacking in the clinch. Or. He could just hang out at range and wait for Wonderboy to do something weird. The most tragic thing about Masvidal is that in the Henderson or Maia fights, he didn't take his foot off the gas, he just lost, albeit in achingly close decisions. Wonderboy has given us 75 straight minutes of near-unadulterated tedium, apart from the bits where he was getting beaten up. I hope Masvidal can bring (or beat) something more interesting out of him.
Stephen Thompson by split decision
Victor Rodriguez: The only bad thing I can say about this fight is that it’s only three rounds. Masvidal knows he can’t just hang back and wait for the opportunity to counter. He’s going to have to walk Wonderboy down and make him sweat, then connect to the body while checking leg kicks and pressuring against the cage. From there, Masvidal softens him up by limiting his movement and outboxes him. I expect a takedown attempt or two to keep Thompson guessing, but this will mostly be a stand-up affair.
Jorge Masvidal by KO.
Zane Simon: I think this is a better matchup for Thompson than some people are willing to admit. My guess is that Thompson is able to land rangy strikes that frustrate Masvidal that then gets Masvidal to be aggressive and start walking in to exchanges where Thompson can land his counter shots. I’m excited to see if Masvidal can eat those and make Thompson pay in return, but I just don’t think Masvidal is quite explosive enough to take Thompson out of his game.
Stephen Thompson by decision.
Staff picking Masvidal: Ram, Davies, Stephie, Nick, Victor, Tim
Staff picking Thompson: Bissell, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Zane
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Paulo Borrachinha vs. Johny Hendricks
Anton Tabuena: Hendricks should win this one, but I just really have lost faith in seeing him back in his championship form at this point. Bad weight cuts and lack of discipline have done a number on him, and I’m not sure we will ever see that powerhouse wrestler who carries the touch of death on his left hand anymore -- even after a couple of months with Greg Jackson.
Borrachinha by TKO.
Ryan Davies: I would much rather pick this fight post weigh ins, but based on what we have seen out of Hendricks lately it’s near impossible to take him over a star in the making like Borrachinha. If Hendricks can withstand the early onslaught he may be able to win a war of attrition. A 23 year old Borrachinha gassed in a 2 round fight on TUF Brazil 3 losing to eventual finalist “Lyoto” Alexandre. Time, desire, USADA there is just too much stacking up against Hendricks.
Borrichinha TKO 1st
Phil Mackenzie: Am I? Am I really thinking of picking Hendricks? This feels a lot like Maynard-Ishihara, where we have a washed fighter who nonetheless has a fairly overwhelming depth of skill in wrestling, against a one round finisher. If Borrachinha hurts Hendricks it's probably over. If a new(?) and improved(?!?) Jackson-Wink Hendricks takes Borrachinha down in the first? Hmmmm. Wait, no. I just heard that weigh-in rant. He's still struggling to make 185 and he sounds completely nuts.
Paolo Borrachinha by TKO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Hendricks barely made weight, and not every fighter makes drastic improvements in their first fight with a new camp/team. Jackson/Winklejohn have done great things for some fighters, but this is still Johny Hendricks. He’s good, but he’s stubborn and not in the best shape anymore. He’s also undersized and facing a physical specimen that hits hard and has very accurate strikes. Good luck taking him down, too. Besides, it’s not like he’s a slouch on the ground. Again, gotta stay away from the least reliable of the two.
Borranchinha by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Technically, Borrachinha doesn’t have many advantages here. He’s a slightly more potent offensive striker, but not quite a clinical one yet, and with a bad gas tank too. Physically however, he has a ton of advantages. And sometimes the physical side is all that matters.
Paulo Borrachinha via KO, Round 1.
Staff picking Borrachinha: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Eddie, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Hendricks: Dayne, Tim
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Jedrzejczyk became the first Polish-born champion in UFC history when she defeated Carla Esparza at UFC 185.
Jedrzejczyk is one of nine fighters in UFC history to win a belt with an undefeated record.
Jedrzejczyk’s five consecutive UFC title defenses are second most among current champions behind D. Johnson (11).
Jedrzejczyk’s six victories in UFC title fights are tied with Ronda Rousey for most of any female in company history.
Jedrzejczyk competes in her ninth UFC strawweight bout, the most appearances in divisional history.
Jedrzejczyk’s eight-fight UFC winning streak in strawweight competition is the longest active streak in the division.
Jedrzejczyk’s eight victories in UFC competition are tied with champ Amanda Nunes and Jessica Andrade for most of any female in company history.
Jedrzejczyk’s eight victories in UFC strawweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Jedrzejczyk has earned nine of her 14 career victories by decision. That includes six of her eight UFC wins.
Jedrzejczyk has out-landed her opponents 971-328 in significant strikes over her past six UFC appearances.
Jedrzejczyk is the only fighter in UFC history to land 200 or more significant strikes in two separate bouts.
Jedrzejczyk is one of two fighters in UFC history to land 100 or more significant strikes in five consecutive fights. Dillashaw also accomplished the feat.
Jedrzejczyk’s 225 significant strikes landed against Andrade at UFC 211 are a UFC title-fight record. She also holds the second highest amount with 220 against Valerie Letourneau at UFC 193.
Jedrzejczyk’s 225 significant strikes landed at UFC 211 are second most in a UFC fight behind Nate Diaz’s 238 significant strikes against Donald Cerrone at UFC 141 in December 2011.
Jedrzejczyk’s 75 leg kicks landed against Andrade at UFC 211 are the single-fight UFC record. She also holds the second highest amount with 70 against Letourneau at UFC 193.
Jedrzejczyk’s three fight-night bonuses for UFC strawweight bouts are the most in divisional history.
Namajunas competes in her seventh UFC strawweight bout, tied for the second most appearances in divisional history behind Jedrzejczyk (nine).
Namajunas’ four victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied for third most in divisional history behind Jedrzejczyk (eight) and Tecia Torres (five).
Namajunas has earned five of her six career victories by submission.
Namajunas’ three stoppage victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied with Paige VanZant for the most in divisional history.
Namajunas’ three submission victories in UFC strawweight competition are the most in divisional history.
Namajunas’ submission of VanZant at the 2:25 mark of Round 5 at UFC Fight Night 80 stands as the latest stoppage in UFC strawweight history and the latest stoppage overall in a women’s UFC bout.
Namajunas’ eight takedowns landed against VanZant at UFC Fight Night 80 stand as the single-fight record for a women’s UFC bout.
Namajunas’ 14 successful guard passes against VanZant at UFC Fight Night 80 stand as the single-fight record for a women’s UFC bout.
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Stephen Thompson (13-2-1 MMA, 8-2-1 UFC) enters the event on a two-fight winless skid. He hasn’t earned a victory since June 2016.
Thompson’s five knockout victories since 2012 in UFC welterweight competition are second most in the division behind Matt Brown (six).
Thompson’s five fight-night bonuses since 2012 for UFC welterweight bouts are tied for second most in the division behind Erick Silva (seven).
Jorge Masvidal (32-12 MMA, 9-5 UFC) is 4-3 since he returned to the welterweight division in July 2015.
Masvidal is one of five fighters in UFC history to finish a bout by submission at the 4:59 mark of Round 2. He accomplished the feat against Michael Chiesa at UFC on FOX 8.
Masvidal has suffered nine of his 12 career losses by decision. That includes all five of his UFC defeats.
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Johny Hendricks (18-7 MMA, 13-7 UFC) is 1-1 since he moved up to the UFC middleweight division in February.
Hendricks is 1-4 in his past five fights.
Hendricks is one of five fighters in UFC history to record three or more knockout victories in less than one minute each.
Hendricks and Lawler combined for 308 significant strikes landed at UFC 171, tied for second most ever for a UFC title fight behind Jedrzejczyk vs. Letourneau at UFC 193 (323 combined significant strikes).
Paulo Borrachinha (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) has earned all 10 of his career victories by stoppage.
Borrachinha has earned nine of his 10 career victories by knockout. That includes both of his UFC wins.
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Joseph Duffy (16-2 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has earned 14 of his 16 career victories by stoppage. He’s finished 13 opponents in the first round and eight in less than two minutes each.
Duffy has earned all three of his UFC stoppage victories in the first round.
Duffy’s 25-second submission of Mitch Clarke at UFC Fight Night 90 is the fourth fastest submission finish in UFC lightweight history.
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Walt Harris (10-6 MMA, 3-5 UFC) competes in his second UFC bout in a 28-day stretch. He lost to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 216 this past month.
Harris is 3-2 since he returned to the UFC for a second stint in April 2016.
Harris has earned all 10 of his career victories by knockout.
Harris defends 63 percent of all opponent significant strike attempts in UFC heavyweight competition, the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class.
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Mickey Gall (4-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) has earned all four of his career victories by submission in a total fight time of 12:32.
Gall’s three-fight submission streak in UFC competition is the longest among active fighters.
Gall’s 45-second submission of Mike Jackson at UFC Fight Night 82 tied the mark for fourth fastest submission in UFC welterweight history.
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Aleksei Oleinik (52-10-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) has earned 42 of his 52 career victories by submission. He’s finished 36 of those wins in Round 1.
Oleinik has earned his past 14 victories by stoppage. That includes all four of his UFC wins.
Oleinik is the only fighter in UFC history to earn an Ezekiel choke submission victory. He accomplished the feat at UFC Fight Night 103.
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Corey Anderson (9-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC) lands 5.01 significant strikes per minute in UFC light-heavyweight competition, the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class.
Anderson completes 50 percent of his takedown attempts in UFC light-heavyweight competition, the third highest rate in divisional history behind Lyoto Machida (65 percent) and Glover Teixeira (51.4 percent).
Anderson’s 61-second knockout of Matt Van Buren at the TUF 19 Finale stands as the fastest finish in a “TUF” tournament final.
Ovince Saint Preux (21-10 MMA, 9-5 UFC) competes in his second UFC fight in a 42-day span. He defeated Yushin Okami at UFC Fight Night 1117 in September.
Saint Preux’s two-fight UFC winning streak in light heavyweight competition is tied for the second longest active streak in the division behind Mauricio Rua (three) and Volkan Oezdemir (three).
Saint Preux’s nine victories since 2013 in UFC light heavyweight competition are the most in the division.
Saint Preux has earned 16 of his 21 career victories by stoppage. That includes seven of his nine UFC wins.
Saint Preux’s seven stoppage victories since 2013 in UFC competition are most in the light heavyweight division and tied for fourth most in the company behind Cerrone (nine), champ Max Holloway (eight) and Derrick Lewis (eight).
Saint Preux’s four submission victories in UFC light-heavyweight competition are tied with Renato Sobral for second most in divisional history behind Jon Jones (five).
Saint Preux’s three Von Flue choke submissions in UFC/WEC/PRIDE/Strikeforce are the most in combined company history. No one else has more than one.
Saint Preux has earned three of the five Von Flue choke victories in UFC history. Jason Von Flue and Jordan Rinaldi also accomplished the feat.
Saint Preux’s two technical submission victories in UFC competition are tied for second most in company history behind Frank Mir (three).
Saint Preux vs. Okami was just the second fight in UFC history to feature zero combined significant strike attempts. Ilir Latifi vs. Cyrille Diabate at UFC on FUEL TV 6 was the other.
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Tally
Aiemann Zahabi - 16
Ricardo Ramos - 6
Oleksiy Oliynyk - 10
Curtis Blaydes - 14
Mickey Gall - 17
Randy Brown - 7
Corey Anderson - 9
Ovince Saint Preux - 14
Mark Godbeer - 3
Walt Harris - 21
James Vick - 8
Joseph Duffy - 17
Paulo Borrachinha - 21
Johny Hendricks - 7
Jorge Masvidal - 11
Stephen Thompson - 18
Rose Namajunas - 2
Joanna Jedrzejczyk - 29
T.J. Dillashaw - 3
Cody Garbrandt - 26
Michael Bisping - 15
Georges St-Pierre - 14
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