The Greek Sportsbook ...
Sharp Action
Garbrandt
Jedrzejczyk
Thompson
The Greek Sportsbook ...
Sharp Action
Garbrandt
Jedrzejczyk
Thompson
You have an extra ticket? I can be there in minutes...Originally Posted by New York Knight
Have fun bud!
It would be fun for all of us to get together sometime and go to an event.
Would be a good time!
Fights to Avoid Betting at UFC 217
MMAOddsBreaker
Bantamweight title bout: Cody Garbrandt (-175) vs. TJ Dillashaw (+155)
Gabe's Thoughts: I think this 135-pound title fight is closer than the betting odds currently suggest. At the current price, I think Dillashaw holds a bit of value at his current underdog asking price of +155, so I can’t fault anybody for taking a shot on him to retain his title. I do see this fight as a dog or pass situation, but ultimately I am going to have to pass. I will be happy just sitting back and enjoying this title fight, and I would recommend you do the same, as I think this is one scrap that is best left alone at the sportsbook this weekend.
Gabe's Call: Garbrandt by Split Decision (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID
Heavyweight bout: Walt Harris (-345) vs. Mark Godbeer (+285)
Gabe's Thoughts: It’s happening again. After pulling out to face Fabricio Werdum on a couple of hours notice and going on to lose the bout via first round armbar submission, this bout was quickly rebooked. I do agree with Harris being the favorite here, but I do not agree with his current asking price of -345. I see this heavyweight showdown as a dog or pass scenario and I just can’t get myself to pull the trigger on Godbeer, as I am not convinced he is a UFC caliber heavyweight. To be fair, I am not convinced that Harris is, either. There is just no way I could lay -345 down on Harris, and +285 just isn’t enough to take a stab on Godbeer. I think I would need to see him reach +350 just to consider it.
Gabe's Call: Harris by Unanimous Decision (29-28, 28-28, 29-28)
Gabe's Recommended Play: AVOID
Diggin’ Deep on UFC 217 - Fight Pass prelims preview
Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
Aleksei Olenik (52-10-1) vs. Curtis Blaydes (7-1, 1 NC), Heavyweight
Outside of the freakish Frenchman, Francis Ngannou – who happens to be responsible for Blaydes lone career loss – there isn’t a heavyweight prospect MMA analysts have been more excited about than Blaydes in a very long time. His combination of physicality, athleticism, and wrestling technique could very well be unrivaled given Cain Velasquez’s inability to remain healthy. Experience is what is holding him back. Some steam was lost following his lackluster win over Daniel Omielanczuk in July as Omielanczuk stuffed all 13 of Blaydes takedown attempts, but the youngster learned he’s not going to be able to use his raw physical skills to bowl over his opponents. Varying his wrestling attack would help too.
Olenik is the perfect test for the youngster to vary things as Olenik may be the savviest vet on the roster, much less the division. Clocking in at 40-years old, he’s slow, about as athletic as your average dad from suburbia, and extremely awkward in his standup. Despite that, he sports a 4-1 record in the UFC, including a win over Ronda Rousey’s hubby Travis Browne. Olenik’s knowledge of neck submissions is unparalleled. I’m not just referring to chokes either as he has secured numerous neck cranks for the win. He’s the owner of the only submission in UFC history while on the bottom of the mount position.
Blaydes has been working on a jab in recent contests, though calling it a reliable weapon at this point would be a stretch. Nonetheless, he’s got a more varied attack than Olenik – largely due to his athletic edge – and his raw power is apparent even if it hasn’t been fully unleashed yet. Olenik’s awkward hooks don’t look too damaging until he lands one on the temple of his opponent, showing a surprising level of accuracy. More than doing damage though, he uses them to cover distance to clinch up where he can use his various tricks of the trade to get the fight to the ground.
I do believe Blaydes has a very bright future. But I also think Olenik represents a massive challenge for the 26-year old. Olenik tends to feast on youngsters as he can offer them challenges they’ve never even thought of, much less seen. What really pushes me over the edge on selecting the old man is his durability, showing an ability to take a hell of a beating. He’ll find a way to get the job done, though I acknowledge there is a reason Blaydes is favored.
Olenik via submission of RD2
Michael Oleksiejzcuk (12-2) vs. Ion Cutelaba (13-3, 1 NC), Light Heavyweight
Originally signed to face Gadzhimurad Antigulov in a clash of rising European light heavyweights, Cutelaba now faces a debuting – and unknown – Oleksiejzcuk. Seriously, I don’t know how to set it up better.
Cutelaba has quickly made himself a name to be known in a division desperate for young talent on the up-and-up. His style isn’t difficult to figure out as Cutelaba is constantly moving forward, swarming his opponents with hooks in hopes of putting them to sleep. It isn’t the most technical approach, but his iron chin has allowed him to walk through what offense the opposition can throw back at him. Fortunately for Cutelaba, 205 doesn’t have too many experienced strikers with the ability to make him pay for his recklessness. If his striking isn’t finding a home, he’s happy to resort to his takedowns, hitting his opponents with a powerful double-leg before looking to dish out some heavy ground strikes.
Oleksiejzcuk has some similarities to Cutelaba, besides stating the obvious that they are both Europena. Also possessing an iron chin with a tendency to brawl – resulting in him getting tagged more than his fair share -- Oleksiejzcuk doesn’t possess the same raw power possessed by Cutelaba. Instead, Oleksiejzcuk offers a surprising level of accuracy with a varied punch selection. He may not be able to secure a finish with one punch as Cutelaba can, but Oleksiejzcuk’s killer instinct is no less adept than Cutelaba’s. It just takes him a few more punches to finish the job.
Oleksiejzcuk does offer some promise… at middleweight. The young Pole has yet to fill out his frame and would probably be best served plying his trade at a smaller weight. He may yet become a full-fledged 205er as he is still only 22-years old with plenty of time to grow into himself, but that is a good distance away. Cutelaba will likely have his choice to either ragdoll his smaller opponent in the wrestling department or look to overwhelm him with strikes. The latter would be my guess as there is nothing he loves more than a highlight reel finish. Cutelaba has already broken a seemingly uncrackable chin once before when he did in Henrique da Silva. He’ll do so again here.
Cutelaba via TKO of RD2
Aiemann Zahabi (7-0) vs. Ricardo Ramos (10-1), Bantamweight
The brother of well-renowned Tristar trainer Firas Zahabi, the younger Zahabi’s career has been handled with extreme care. Having turned pro in late 2012, he has fought infrequently and against non-credible opponents before making it to the UFC. His UFC debut against Reginaldo Vieira was his first pro contest to leave the first round, giving an indication of his level of competition. Nonetheless, he exhibits all the traits of fighters trained by his brother: a steady jab, great conditioning, and a lot of patience… sometimes too much patience. Vieira outlanded Zahabi by a comfortable margin, though Zahabi made up for it by hurting Vieira on multiple occasions at opportune times.
At 5'9", Ramos is massive for the division. He doesn’t appear to be very strong at first glance, but the Brazilian’s wiry frame is far more powerful than you’d expect. He’s recently made strides to become a skilled counter striker, a far cry from the reckless hooks he used to rely on. You’ll still see those hooks at some point from Ramos, but he’s become wise enough to know when they are appropriate… no longer making them reckless. Ramos knows how to leverage his frame in the clinch too, though he tends to do more stalling against the cage rather than engaging in effective offense. However, it is his aggressive submission game that he is best known for. Not a great wrestler, Ramos usually catches his opponent in a scramble and entangling them with his long limbs for his signature RNC.
Zahabi isn’t much known for his wrestling either, but he did show some excellent takedown defense, fighting off the majority of Vieira’s repeated takedown attempts, but Ramos’ trips from the clinch are a bit of a different beast to deal with than Vieira’s telegraphed shots.
It’s hard to predict this contest. Ramos appears more likely to pick up a stoppage with his developing power and skilled BJJ skills, but Zahabi’s measured and strategic approach is designed to pick up a decision. However, Ramos’ has shown major growth in his own strategic approach. I’m hardly confident in my pick, but I’m picking the 22-year old to pick up a late stoppage.
Ramos via submission of RD3
Over/Under Totals for UFC 217
MMAOddsBreaker
Women’s Strawweight title bout: Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-600) vs. Rose Namajunas (+450)
Gabe's Thoughts: To put it simply, I see this fight playing out two ways; either the champion earns a TKO stoppage to retain her title or Namajunas catches her in a submission.to take her crown. Whichever the result, I think we see the final result within three and a half rounds of action, which makes me favor the Total of Under 3.5 rounds for a play at it’s currently offered price of +165.
Gabe's Call: Namajunas by Submission (standing rear naked choke or flying armbar, 3:21 round 2)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Under 3.5 rounds (+165)
Light Heavyweight bout: Ion Cutelaba (-500) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+400)
Gabe's Thoughts: At these odds, I think this fight is a dog or pass situation and am quite tempted to play Michal but after tossing and turning with it, I have ultimately decided to pass on making a wager. There is no way I can recommend playing Cutelaba as a 5-to-1 betting favorite in this spot, even though I am a big fan his. I think Michal is going to be a very tough out for him, and if not for the fact that he is taking this fight on short notice, I would have likely taken him here, even as low as +250. It would not at all surprise me to see him get the job done, but Cutelaba is tough to put away, so I think he is going to have to take this fight on the judges’ scorecards. Cutelaba is a finisher in his own right, but I think he is more likely to win this particular matchup on the cards than inside the distance. While I am passing on taking either fighter straight up, despite seeing value in Michal at the current odds, I am opting to play the Total of Over 1.5 rounds here at +180, as I think this fight goes past seven and a half minutes of action more often than not.
Gabe's Call: Cutelaba by Majority Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-28)
Gabe's Recommended Play: Over 1.5 rounds (+180)
CG Technology ...
Biggest UFC 217 Liabilities to book as of now are in order:
Bisping / Cody Garbrandt / Paulo Borrachinha / Ricardo Ramos and Ion Cutelaba
Who walks out of MSG with their respective championships?
Sporting News MMA contributors Steven Muehlhausen and E. Spencer Kyte give their picks.
Michael Bisping vs. Georges St-Pierre for the UFC middleweight title
Kyte: Could GSP come back and wrestle Bisping to the canvas for 25 minutes? It’s certainly possible given; 1. St-Pierre’s pedigree and; 2. Tim Kennedy did something similar to Bisping back in the day, but man, I’m having a hard time envisioning my fellow Canadian returning after four years on the sidelines (and another ACL repair) to upend “The Count” in this one.
Bisping has outstanding conditioning and pace, tons of heart and has looked pretty damn good over his last several fights, save for the odd dicey moment here and there. You know he’s going to be in St-Pierre’s face from Jump Street and given the time off and shift in divisions, I tend to favor the champion once this fight starts heading into the third, fourth and fifth round.
We just saw Lyoto Machida come back after two years away and get trucked and while it’s not a perfect comparison, St-Pierre has been out twice as long, is moving up in weight and facing a very, very good fighter.
I know it could get me deported, but I’m picking against the returning French-Canadian.
Prediction: Bisping
Muehlhausen: I am shocked Mr. Kyte — I thought Canadians stuck together. Better pack the belongings as people will be coming to hurt you and take you out of the country.
There’s a reason Georges St-Pierre picked Michael Bisping for his first fight in nearly four years and at middleweight. As good as Bisping’s conditioning is and possessing the heart of a champion, that will only win you so many fights.
Not to take anything from Bisping winning the title, but let’s look at how he won the title. He won the belt in a short notice fight against Luke Rockhold, who underestimated the Brit and retained the title in a narrow decision over a 46-year-old Dan Henderson.
And comparing Machida to St-Pierre? Not perfect yes, but not even in the same universe. Machida’s time away was self-inflicted by failing a drug test while St-Pierre’s was self-imposed.
Bisping doesn’t have overwhelming power and working with famed boxing coach Freddie Roach, who will be in St-Pierre’s corner gives him a distinct advantage. He already had a better than average jab which won him plenty of fights like the second fight against Josh Koscheck, Johny Hendricks and Jake Shields. And St-Pierre can always rely on old faithful, his wrestling. Before he took his hiatus, we were talking about St-Pierre having the best wrestling in the all of MMA.
Let’s remember this as well. Even though he’s a current world champion and entering his 38th career fight, this is the biggest one of them. St-Pierre has been in this position before and won’t affect him in the slightest bit.
Prediction: St-Pierre
Cody Garbrandt vs. TJ Dillashaw for the UFC Bantamweight Title
Kyte: If this fight were happening within six months of Garbrandt’s dominant effort against Dominick Cruz, I would have been on the champion’s side, but that fight was almost a year ago, this fight was postponed from the summer and “No Love” has been dealing with back issues.
In addition to being concerned about Garbrandt’s health, the recent changes at Team Alpha Male and how emotionally invested he still seems in this rivalry with Dillashaw, who departed the Sacramento-based fight team more than two years ago are all question marks for me.
I have no such concerns with Dillashaw, who looked great against Raphael Assuncao and John Lineker to solidify his place as the top contender and has switched up his training situation for the better, continuing his relationship with Duane “Bang” Ludwig and building his own squad in Orange County.
As such, I’m picking the former champion to return to the top of the division.
Prediction: Dillashaw
Muehlhausen: When this card became finalized, this was the hardest fight to pick a winner. But as time has gone on, this without a shadow of a doubt became the easiest fight to pick.
It doesn’t matter if this fight happened in July, this Saturday or in 2020, Garbrandt would win ten times out of ten.
Garbrandt is better in every facet. Don’t get me wrong, Dillashaw is a great fighter but Garbrandt is that much better. Let’s remember, the champion did something Dillashaw couldn’t do and no fighter has ever done, beat long-reigning and the best fighter in the history of the bantamweight division, Dominick Cruz in a 135-pound contest.
No offense to Dillashaw’s wins over Assuncao and Lineker as they were good victories, but they are one-dimensional fighters and Garbrandt is as complete of a fighter as you will see in MMA.
Garbrandt wins handily and starts thinking about superfights.
Prediction: Garbrandt
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas for the UFC Women’s Strawweight Title
Kyte: Namajunas is a very good fighter, coming off a very good win, who has shown very steady improvement over the course of her career.
But she’s gonna get trucked.
This is one of those “there are levels to this s—” kind of fights where Jedrzejczyk rolls into the cage, finds her range and gets cockier and more demonstrative as we get into the latter rounds. Remember when she confidently called Claudia Gadelha back to her feet in their second encounter? Take that level of swagger and kick it up a couple notches and that’s what I think we’ll get from Jedrzejczyk here.
The lone hope for Namajunas is getting this to the ground and catching the champion with a submission, but Jedrzejczyk’s takedown defense is outstanding, she works with a ton of excellent wrestlers and has frequently noted how much she works with Gezeay Matuda, a full-blown Brazilian jiu jitsu bad ass who probably puts “Champy” in worse positions than Namajunas will be able to get to on Saturday night.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk
Muehlhausen: I always knew you were a smart guy, Spencer.
It isn’t knock on Namajunas whose vastly improved her game since her title loss to Carla Esparza. She’s on a roll heading into UFC 217, winning four of her last five fights.
But, she’s facing not only the best 115-pound fighter in the world but the best women’s competitor on the planet. Jedrzejczyk does everything great. She has no holes in her game and at this point is as unbeatable as unbeatable can get.
The only way I can envision Namajunas winning the title is catching Jedrzejczyk napping, and catching her in a slick submission.
Don’t think it will occur and will see Jedrzejczyk tie Ronda Rousey’s record for most successful title defenses in women’s MMA in the UFC.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk
UFC 217 Cheat Sheet - Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Rose Namajunas
Brett Okamoto - ESPN
Jedrzejczyk: 14-0 (8-0 UFC); sixth defense of UFC women's strawweight title
Jedrzejczyk: Four wins by knockout, one win by submission (last four wins by unanimous decision)
Jedrzejczyk: Six wins in UFC title fights, tied all-time for female fighters with Ronda Rousey
Jedrzejczyk: Second-longest reigning champion among active UFC titleholders (won title in 2015)
Jedrzejczyk: No. 1-ranked strawweight fighter and No. 2-ranked women's pound-for-pound fighter according to ESPN
Namajunas: 6-3 (4-2 UFC); second UFC title fight (lost to Carla Esparza in 2014)
Namajunas: Five wins by submission (four by rear-naked choke)
Namajunas: No. 5-ranked strawweight fighter according to ESPN
ESPN's fight breakdown
Rose Namajunas is far more prepared to win a UFC championship now, than she was at age 21 in 2014. But is she prepared to beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk?
Over the course of a 25-minute fight? No. It's impossible to say she is. Namajunas is one of the best in the world, but she can't consistently beat Jedrzejczyk over five rounds. But can she surprise, and possibly finish her, at any given moment? That she can do.
That describes every fight, but it's meaningful here. Jedrzejczyk is the best. No one will top her on scorecards. If she loses, it will likely be a finish -- and Namajunas's career finishing rate is 83 percent, higher than any challenger Jedrzejczyk has fought.
The striking style Namajunas employs is fluid, and pretty to watch. She stays on the outside with footwork, jabs, front kicks. The range she maintains is blatantly long. Some previous opponents have been thrown off by it, coming up well short on offense, which opens counter opportunities for Namajunas.
The problem is: What happens when Namajunas loses that range? She was eaten alive in the clinch by Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Tecia Torres had success boxing Namajunas on the inside. Her commitment to that distance can also sabotage Namajunas's power. She tends to favor exit strategies over follow-up combinations -- although she does have a dangerous head kick.
Jedrzejczyk has lost a round to a long striker before in Valerie Letourneau, but again, over time, it's nearly impossible to beat her on the feet. She's effective at every distance, but with far more power than Namajunas -- and she's absolutely devastating in the clinch. If this matchup sees prolonged action in the clinch, it might be a very, very ugly night for the challenger.
And that's probably the No. 1 area of the fight to monitor. If Namajunas gets going on the outside, it forces her opponents to close. When they do, they walk into her scrambling and submission skills, which are really the best part of her game. That's where she took out the inexperienced Paige VanZant and the undersized Michelle Waterson.
If Namajunas pulls off the upset, here's what it likely looks like: Clean work on the outside, entice Jedrzejczyk to come forward and get off-balance, scramble, submission, tap. Easy, right?
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via TKO, third round.
Georges St-Pierre vs. Michael Bisping statistical breakdown
Takedowns
St-Pierre has stated that Bisping is "terrified" of his wrestling. If Bisping is truly afraid, then his fears are not unreasonable. During his UFC career, St-Pierre has used his takedown game to dominate fights. The former welterweight champion holds the record for most takedowns landed in UFC history with 87, and his takedown accuracy of 73.7 percent is second-best all time. Since being knocked out by Matt Serra in 2007, St-Pierre has landed at least 50 percent of his takedown attempts in each of his past 12 fights. During that same stretch, he averaged 3.89 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time.
The saving grace for Bisping is that he has relatively strong takedown defense. In the UFC he has stopped 65 percent of his opponents' takedown attempts, and he has only been taken down four times in his past seven fights. However, in the 17 fights in which an opponent has attempted to take him down, Bisping has only managed to avoid going to the ground in four of them. For context, Bisping has faced three fighters who average at least three takedowns per 15 minutes: Matt Hamill, CB Dollaway and Chael Sonnen. These three opponents landed 64 percent of their takedown attempts against Bisping and combined to take him down 12 times.
Certainly wrestling will be part of St-Pierre's game plan. It has been a vital element of his offensive attack since he debuted in the UFC in 2004. In order to be successful, Bisping will need to find a way to keep this fight on the feet. If St-Pierre does score takedowns, Bisping will need to avoid damage on the ground and get back to his feet.
Ground striking
Another element of St-Pierre's success is his ability to land meaningful strikes once he takes a fight to the floor. During his UFC career, 36 percent of GSP's significant strikes have come while on the ground, and he has outlanded opponents 449 to 43 in that position. On the other hand, Bisping prefers to do most of his striking on the feet. He has only landed nine percent of his significant strikes while on the ground. Since defeating Jason "Mayhem" Miller in 2011, Bisping has been outlanded on the ground 47 to 23.
Takedowns not only allow St-Pierre to dictate the pace and position of the fight, but they also open up a significant part of his striking offense. If Bisping is able to stop the takedowns, it will hinder his opponent's offense and put him in an advantageous position for offensive striking.
Significant strikes
Bisping holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 1,533. For his career, St-Pierre is not far behind with 1,254. However, on a per-minute basis, Bisping has a pretty clear advantage. He lands 4.33 significant strikes per minute, while St-Pierre only lands 3.82. Plus, in his past six fights, Bisping actually increased his rate even more and landed 4.56 per minute.
In an interesting development that could be a problem for St-Pierre, Bisping seems to have found power late in his career. Through his first 24 UFC fights, he scored five knockdowns at a rate of 0.25 per 15 minutes of fight time. In his past three fights alone, Bisping has scored three knockdowns at a rate of 0.84 per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has only been knocked down three times in his UFC career, but he did absorb 240 significant strikes in his past four fights and is coming off a nearly four-year layoff. If this power continues to show and Bisping is able to prevent takedowns, St-Pierre could struggle to say in the fight.
Strikes absorbed
Thanks in part to his takedown ability, St-Pierre does not absorb very many significant strikes. During his UFC career, he has absorbed only 1.43 significant strikes per minute. However, for his past four fights that rate jumped to 2.4. The increase was due mostly to Jake Shields (3.12) and Johny Hendricks (3.4), the only two fighters to land at least three significant strikes per minute against St-Pierre in the promotion.
Bisping has allowed his opponents to land 2.62 significant strikes against him in the UFC. However, that rate has increased dramatically over the course of his past six fights. In his first 21 fights in the UFC, Bisping absorbed 2.39 significant strikes per minute. During his recent six-fight stretch, his opponents have landed 3.2 significant strikes against him on a per-minute basis. Bisping may have the offensive edge in terms of striking, but St-Pierre has proven hard to hit in his UFC run. This could turn out to be an interesting defensive wrinkle on Saturday night. In the past Bisping has needed to be a volume striker to be successful. If St-Pierre is able to prevent that, the fight could swing in his favor.
Tapology
M. Bisping 52%
C. Garbrandt 68%
J. Jędrzejczyk 91%
S. Thompson 68%
P. Borrachinha 83%
J. Duffy 73%
W. Harris 82%
O. St. Preux 83%
M. Gall 77%
I. Cutelaba 80%
O. Oliynyk 56%
A. Zahabi 77%
UFC 217 predictions: Who will leave the Big Apple with gold?
TheScore
Middleweight Championship
Michael Bisping (20-7 UFC, 30-7)
vs.
Georges St-Pierre (19-2 UFC, 25-2)
It'll take more than a few extra pounds of muscle to keep Bisping pinned to the canvas.
Heart-wrenching as it may be to pick against a bulked-up GSP and his takedown-heavy attack tailor-made for a win on points, the fact remains it's hard for even decorated wrestlers to bring Bisping to the canvas and even harder to hold him there. If the middleweight champ can keep the fight upright, his volume striking should be enough to keep the strap around his waist and make him the only man to have beaten both St-Pierre and Anderson Silva.
THE PICK: Bisping
Bantamweight Championship
Cody Garbrandt (6-0 UFC, 11-0)
vs.
TJ Dillashaw (10-3 UFC, 14-3)
If Garbrandt proved anything in his coup of Dominick Cruz, it's that a simmering grudge can bring out the best in him.
The champ submitted a breakthrough performance after months of jawing with Cruz, riding tight footwork and clean counters to a unanimous decision over a notoriously herky-jerky technician in Cruz. While the comparisons to Cruz may not fully do his style or abilities justice, Dillashaw could very well bring much of the same to the Octagon against his former teammate Saturday, and unless he reverts to his wrestling roots, odds are Garbrandt repeats last year's effort and takes a surefire thriller.
THE PICK: Garbrandt
Strawweight Championship
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (8-0 UFC, 14-0)
vs.
Rose Namajunas (4-2 UFC, 6-3)
Jedrzejczyk has a way of handing her opponents an L before the cage door is even shut, and stoic as Namajunas has looked in the face of her psychological warfare, she won't be playing spoiler come fight night.
"Thug" wears her moniker better than most, but Jedrzejczyk has seen the likes of Claudia Gadelha and Jessica Andrade aim to bully her against the fence and on the canvas, and pulled away with the victory regardless. Look for the Polish queen to stave off Namajunas' takedown attempts, stay on her bicycle, and subject the challenger to a death by a thousand strikes for yet another lopsided decision victory.
THE PICK: Jedrzejczyk
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson (8-2-1 UFC, 13-2-1)
vs.
Jorge Masvidal (9-5 UFC, 32-12)
How do you beat a striker whose success depends on maintaining his distance?
You take away his space.
Saturday's tilt will mark Masvidal's first against a karate stylist of the unpredictable Thompson's ilk, but he proved he can hang with rangier strikers in his statement win over lethal kickboxer Donald Cerrone. If the Strikeforce alum can cut off the cage and keep Thompson from setting his feet - thereby nullifying the karateka's deep bag of kicks - he should find a home for his mitts with regularity en route to a W.
THE PICK: Masvidal
Middleweight
Johny Hendricks (13-7 UFC, 18-7)
vs.
Paulo Borrachinha (2-0 UFC, 10-0)
How the mighty have fallen.
A move up to middleweight hasn't cured Hendricks' longstanding bout with listlessness, which spells nothing but doom against an archetypal frontrunner in Borrachinha. A move to Jackson's MMA may bring out the tactician in the former welterweight champ, but his recent tape doesn't inspire much confidence in his ability to weather the typhoon his foe will unleash as soon as the ref kicks things off.
Borrachinha by early knockout.
THE PICK: Borrachinha
Featured Preliminary Bout
Lightweight
James Vick (7-1 UFC, 11-1)
vs.
Joe Duffy (4-1 UFC, 16-2)
In a veritable coin toss of a matchup, it's the bigger man who'll get his hand raised.
What Vick might give up to Duffy in cleanliness in the striking department, he makes up for in length and his first-rate grappling. The lanky lightweight isn't one to shy away from trading leather, but he'd be wise to bring this one to the mat at the first opportunity, as Duffy boasts crisp boxing. Once on the canvas, it shouldn't be long before Vick puts the squeeze on "Irish Joe" for his third straight stoppage win.
THE PICK: Vick
The Rest
Walt Harris
Ovince Saint Preux
Mickey Gall
Aleksei Oleinik
Ion Cutelaba
Aiemann Zahabi
UFC 217 – Official Preview and Predictions
Sports Break
Fox Sports 1 Prelims
Randy Brown (-140) vs. Mickey Gall (+110)
The man who shut down CM Punk in his MMA debut and then submitted Sage Northcutt will continue the undefeated start to his career. Gall by submission.
Ion Cutelaba (-450) vs. Michael Oleksiejczuk (+325)
Cutelaba may still be just 23-years-old, but he already has 17 professional fights under his belt (13-3, with one No Content). He’s taking on fellow-youngster Oleksiejczuk (22), who sports a similar record of 12-2. Cutelaba has only won two of his last four fights, while Oleksiejczuk is on a nine fight win streak. We expect him to make it ten in his UFC debute. Oleksiejczuk by knockout.
Walt Harris (-325) vs. Mark Goodbeer (+250)
There isn’t much better than watching two gigantic men slug it out in the octagon. Harris (6’5″, 250-lbs) and Goodbeer (6’4″, 242-lbs) are two huge dudes who specialize in throwing haymakers. Of their combined 22 wins, 19 have come by knockout. Which one will come out on top in this fight? We flipped a coin and it landed on Goodbeer, the slightly more consistent of the two. Goodbeer by knockout
Joseph Duffy (-165) vs. James Vick (+135)
The main event of the prelims should be a good one, as neither Vick nor Duffy are used to losing, with respective records of 11-1 and 17-2. They both have a tendency to notch victories by making other fighters tap, which means the fight could go one of two ways — either a technical grappling spectacle or a stand up war where neither fighter wants to make a mistake on the ground. Regardless of how it goes down, we think Duffy comes out on top. Duffy via decision.
Main Card
Paulo Borrachinha (-225) vs. Johny Hendricks (+175)
Johny Hendricks really needs this fight. His career may depend on it. It wasn’t that long ago that “Big Rig” got two cracks at the welterweight title, losing a decision to Georges St-Pierre (which many people think he really won) and then capturing the vacant championship by beating Robbie Lawler in March 2014. He lost a rematch with Lawler ten months later and things have been bad ever since.
Hendricks always struggled to make 170-pounds, but after losing the title to Lawler things got even worse (expect for a win over Matt Brown at UFC 185). He picked up three straight losses (to Stephen Thompson, Kevin Gastelum, and Neil Magny). Even worse, he failed to make weight for two of those three fights. The UFC basically forced him to move up to 185-pounds, where he picked up a win over Hector Lombard, but then he again failed to make weight against Tim Boetsch and lost by TKO. If he loses this fight or fails to make weight again, he’l likely be cut.
Across the cage stands Paulo Borrachinha, an undefeated (10-0) 26-year-old from Brazil. He’s bigger than Hendricks and has a longer reach, so it’s easy to see why he’s been installed as a favorite here. This one could be a slugfest, as Borrachinha has ended nine of his career ten fights by knockout or stoppage (the tenth was a submission victory). Likewise, Hendricks is known for two things: his strong wrestling background and a dynamite left hand that’s floored many opponents in the past.
Call me crazy, but I have a feeling that a desperate Hendricks will come into this one very prepared and focused. With so many weight cutting mishaps in his recent history, he’s going to nail this one and fight with a hunger we haven’t seen from him in a while. Plus, it’s boring to always pick the favorites.
Prediction: Hendricks via knockout.
Stephen Thompson (-175) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+145)
Frankly, I’m not sure why these odds are so close. Stephen Thompson may not have won his last two fights, but they were closely fought bouts with Welterweight champ Tyron Woodley. And when I say “close fights,”I mean they were really f**king close! The first was scored a majority draw (meaning two judges scored the fight a draw and the third had Woodley winning) and the second was a majority decision (meaning two judges scored it 48-47 for Woodley, and the third scored it a draw). Like I said, it was a pair of super close fights, both being very hard to score.
Before those two contests, Wonderboy was 13-1, suffering just a single loss to Matt Brown back in 2012. He’s still the No. 2 ranked welterweight in the world and definitely wants another crack at the title. In contrast, Masvidal has lost of his last eight fights dating back to 2015, including disappointing bouts with Al Iaquinta, Benson Henderson, Lorenz Larkin, and Damian Maia. Somehow, he’s still the No. 4 ranked welterweight in the official UFC rankings, but I think there’s actually a much larger gap between the two.
Prediction: Thompson via decision.
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-500) vs. Rose Namajunas (+350)
According to the bookies, this is the most lopsided fight of the night. If you’ve ever watched Joanna Violence do her thing, you’ll understand why. She’s a perfect 14-0 in MMA, not to mention her stellar records in kickboxing (27-3) and amateur Muau Thai (37-3). The 30-year-old Polish fighter is one of the best in the world, male or female, at any weight class. She’s already defended the Women’s Strawweight title on five separate occasions, and will be looking to make it six on Saturday.
Rose Namajunas, on the other hand, has actually fought for this title before. A bought with Carla Esparza in December 2014 actually decided the inaugural women’s strawweight champion, before Joanna Champion took over the division. Since then, Namajunas has knocked off UFC golden girls Paige VanZant and Michelle Waterson and worked herself back into title contention, despite a controversial split decision loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in July 2016. She has one of the toughest tasks in all of MMA ahead of her at UFC 217, and I don’t see her scoring the upset.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk via decision.
Cody Grabrandt (-185) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (+150)
Cody “No Love” Garbrandt has risen up the UFC ranks quickly and violently. His perfect 11-0 record comes with nine stoppages, all due to punches. He beat one of the very best in the game when he notched a decision victory over Dominick Cruz at UFC 207 to capture the Bantamweight championship. It’s been ten months, but Garbrandt will finally defend the title after finally getting over a back injury that prevented this fight from happening sooner.
Dillashaw is a former champ at 135-lbs himself, and is itching to get another crack at the belt he lost to Dominick Cruz in early 2016. An interesting subplot to this fight is that Garbrandt and Dillashaw used to be teammates at Team Alpha Male, an MMA training gym founded by Uriah Faber. Dillashaw left the camp in 2015, and the divorce has led to a fair share of insults traded among to two.
The odds are close, and with Garbrandt returning from injury, I’m going to take a risk and put the money on the underdog.
Prediction: Dillashaw via submission.
Georges St-Pierre (-125) vs. Michael Bisping (+105)
If this fight had taken place before GSP decided to take his break from competing, it wouldn’t even be close. I’d hesitate to even offer Bisping a puncher’s chance, really. But today, in 2017, things are a bit different. St-Pierre is 36-years-old and hasn’t had a competitive fight in four years. He was one of the greatest fighters of all-time back in his prime, but logic says his prime has probably been left behind somewhere.
On the other hand, Bisping is no spring chicken either. He’s 38 and like I mentioned in the intro, an unlikely champion. Since his surprise upset of Rockhold in June 2016, he’s only defended the Middleweight title once — a decision victory over old foe Dan Henderson at UFC 204. Two things to note about that; the fight was a year ago and Hendo was 47 at the time.
There are a lot of unknowns in this bout. Can Bisping cling to his championship moment in the twilight of his career? Can GSP resurrect his dominance in a new weight class? Most importantly, does anyone still care after all these years? I think they do, and I also think that GSP will have enough to grind out a win.
Prediction: St-Pierre via TKO.
Diggin’ Deep on UFC 217 - Main card preview
Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
Stephen Thompson (13-2-1) vs. Jorge Masvidal (32-12), Welterweight
Coming out on the losing end of one of the worst title fights in the UFC’s history, Thompson is looking to not only come out of the evening with a win, but reestablishing his reputation as one of the most exciting welterweights on the planet. Win or lose, I struggle to see him not regaining that reputation against Masvidal.
Masvidal appeared to have his breakthrough moment when he dispatched of a streaking Donald Cerrone on FOX earlier this year, only to come up short against Demian Maia in his next contest for a crack at Tyron Woodley. One of the most well-rounded fighters in the sport, it’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where Masvidal’s greatest strength is. Then again, he uses his all-around skills to his advantage by taking the fight where his opponent is weakest. Case in point: his pressure on Cerrone prevented Cowboy from getting his kick-heavy offense going. He’s also capable of hanging back to strike from the outside or employing a takedown-heavy attack.
Most of the praise going towards Masvidal of late has been in regards to his boxing with the Cerrone contest being pointed to. He maintains good positioning, tight technique, and possesses underrated power. What has gotten Masvidal into trouble in the past has been his willingness to play it safe, believing he is winning the fight through the first two rounds and coasting in the last round. He has been motivated in recent contests against a higher level of competition, largely rendering this issue to be a moot point.
Thompson should still regarded as one of the most dangerous KO specialists regardless of his inability to hurt Woodley in their two contests. His kickboxing background developed his extensive knowledge of angles and distance, allowing him to render Rory MacDonald’s attack largely ineffective despite the Canadian possessing a slight reach advantage. Thompson keeps a jab out there with regularity, using it to set up his dangerous kicking arsenal. It’s doubtful there is a kick out there he is incapable of throwing… and landing. His question mark kick and round kicks are the most common, but he can throw spinning techniques just as effectively. Thompson isn’t seen as a clinch fighter, but he did outmuscle Johny Hendricks from there, showing more strength than most thought he possessed.
The ground game is a bit of a wild card. Masvidal is viewed as the better wrestler, but that’s largely due to his offensive proclivities. He hasn’t resorted to going to the ground very often in recent years, scoring no more than two takedowns in a contest since 2013. However, Thompson has shown brilliant takedown defense ever since his loss to Matt Brown in 2012 as Woodley has been the only one to get him down. Masvidal is probably the better grappler as well, but Thompson has never been submitted, showing slick defensive chops. Thompson has never made a serious effort to submit an opponent, but he has shown some deadly ground-and-pound if he gets the proper position.
It’s hard not to be excited about this fight. Both are exceptionally durable – Thompson has never been finished while Masvidal owns a single KO/TKO loss in his career – and both have exceptional knowledge of striking technique. Neither possesses a major advantage in athletic ability either. Thompson has more power while Masvidal has more experience in an MMA cage. I can justify either one winning it a few various ways logically. So… who wins? I’ll go with Thompson, expecting this to be a standup battle with his kickboxing experience being the difference maker.
Thompson via decision
Johny Hendricks (18-7) vs. Paulo Borrachinha (10-0), Middleweight
Four years ago, Hendricks fought Georges St. Pierre tooth and nail in one of the greatest title fights in the UFC’s history. Though he didn’t get his hand raised, the majority of fans and analysts believed he deserved the win and subsequently took the belt when he defeated Robbie Lawler in another instant classic. It appeared Hendricks was going to carry the welterweight belt for a long time, ala the man he damn-near ripped the belt from. Now? He’s fighting at middleweight against a young Brazilian who has made two UFC appearances against lesser competition.
Yes, Hendricks’ fall has been swift and hard, but it has also been his own doing. Undisciplined weight management pushed him up to middleweight and a fallout with his camp, Team Takedown, preceded his fall from grace. Hendricks tried to manage his own camp in the process, finding minimal success. Taking responsibility for his career, Hendricks recently moved to Team Jackson-Wink with hopes of turning himself around.
Hendricks’ power hasn’t been seen for quite a while, last securing a finish back in 2012. When he was putting together lengthy punch-kick combinations during his title fights, it wasn’t as big of a worry as it made it difficult to outpoint the champion. However, falling out of shape sapped his gas tank and he began to look lethargic. Aware of this himself, he has relied heavily on his NCAA wrestling champion pedigree in recent fights, resorting to lay-and-prey once the fight hits the ground. Granted, his striking success has been limited by his lack of size at middleweight, but that doesn’t make up for all of his recent shortcomings.
Though there isn’t nearly as much footage of Borrachinha out there as there is on Hendricks, but what there is clearly shows a highly talented striker. He’s big too, clocking in at 6'1" with a very thick frame. Kicks to mid-section and legs are his choice of attack from the outside – with the occasional jab mixed in there -- while resorting to winging powerful haymakers in closer quarters. Borrachinha has a great feel for spacing, throwing short elbows when unable to get the proper angle on a punch in addition to an improving clinch game. His wrestling is still developing, though he has shown a natural feel for takedowns and the ability to clamber back to his feet quickly should he be the one taken down.
The UFC sees Borrachinha as a future title contender and it isn’t difficult to see why. As Hendricks’ career has spiraled, the UFC is trying to get what value is still left in his name to put Borrachinha over. Hendricks realizes this and is trying to reverse that narrative. Combining Hendricks’ spiral with the size disadvantage he’ll have, it’s easy to see where Borrachinha is the favorite. However, Jackson-Wink have a history of turning around slumping fighters’ careers and Borrachinha has never faced anyone with near the wrestling credentials of Hendricks. Hendricks extends his relevance a bit longer with the upset.
Hendricks via decision
Diggin’ Deep on UFC 217 - FS1 prelims preview
Dayne Fox - Bloody Elbow
James Vick (11-1) vs. Joseph Duffy (16-2), Lightweight
How deep is the lightweight division? A 7-1 record in the UFC isn’t even good enough for Vick to enter the official UFC rankings. Contrast that with light heavyweight where a 3-4 mark is good enough to put Jan Blachowicz in the top fifteen. As for Duffy, he owns a victory over the champion of the division. I’m not talking about Tony Ferguson. I’m talking about Conor McGregor.
I’m sure all of you who remember Duffy’s early UFC fights got sick of hearing about Duffy being the last man to defeat McGregor – thank you Nate Diaz for ending the incessant talks – but it was an effective statement to emphasize just how good Duffy could eventually become. The other thing that was constantly blared in our ears was how Duffy took a brief hiatus to ply his trade as a professional boxer. That experience improved his level of footwork and head movement to close some of his defensive holes. And of course, he puts together sound punching combinations, a stiff jab, and take good angle entries. What else would you expect from a former boxer? Opponents are aware of this too, so Duffy has surprised at times by mixing in a bevy of kicks to throw them off.
Admittedly, Vick isn’t as technically proficient as Duffy in his striking. Then again, few are and it doesn’t mean Vick doesn’t have any advantages in the standup. At 6'3", it’s hard to find a lightweight who can match Vick’s size. His 76" reach doesn’t jump out quite as much as his height, but he has been improving his ability to use his length with every fight. He still leaves his chin out there to be touched up by someone with a firm understanding in angles – i.e. Duffy – but it isn’t quite as hittable as it used to be.
There have been times where both have been exposed in the wrestling department by their opponents, though there are some caveats with that. Vick often allows his opponent to shoot in on him in hopes of sinking in his patented guillotine choke, a maneuver he has pulled off with great success on multiple occasions. He also implements a step-in knee from time to time to mix it up and is relatively quick to get back to his feet when taken down. Duffy’s UFC loss to Dustin Poirier came when he couldn’t stop Poirier from getting him to the ground. He has made great strides in that department since that contest, shutting down noted wrestler Reza Madadi’s offense in his last contest. Duffy’s submission abilities have been overlooked after his performance against Poirier, but he’s one of the more underrated scramblers and submission artists in the sport.
Vick’s opportunism always gives him a chance, but I can’t help but recall his performance against Beneil Dariush. Dariush had his way with the Texan on the feet, finding every opening and piecing him up. Duffy should be able to do the exact same thing. I’d imagine Vick has learned some things from that experience, but that was about as one-sided performance as I can remember in recent years amongst notable fighters. Has he made up that much ground? I don’t think so.
Duffy via submission of RD2
Walt Harris (10-6) vs. Mark Godbeer (12-3), Heavyweight
We were supposed to get this last month only for Derrick Lewis’ back to flare up and cause the big man to pull out. Rather than have Lewis’ opponent – Fabricio Werdum -- fall out as well, Harris stepped in, abandoning Godbeer in the process. When Harris emerged from his loss virtually unscathed physically, this contest was made once again… and I went digging for what I wrote about this fight last month while making a few minor changes.
An argument could be made that Harris is the most naturally gifted big man on the roster this side of Francis Ngannou. A former collegiate basketball player, Harris has finally begun to put the footwork he learned on the hardcourt to good use in the cage. Using angles and avoiding the pocket outside of his explosive attacks, he has begun taking advantage of his athletic gifts and is on the verge of emerging as a potential action fighter in a division badly in need of fresh blood. Though 34-years old, Harris is still relatively youthful in the land of dinosaurs and is still improving. However, he also showed his inexperience on the ground against Werdum. Lucky for him, Godbeer doesn’t ever go to the ground.
Godbeer is well-conditioned himself – for a heavyweight -- but no one will mistake him for an extraordinary athlete. He is fortunate enough to largely match Harris in the height and reach department and should have the edge in the pocket. There’s nothing fancy about Godbeer’s punching; it’s just basic combinations that opponents can figure out before too long. Still, Godbeer hits hard enough that opponents can’t just stand in the in front of him and hope they can eventually land a big shot on the chinny big man.
Neither man has successfully executed a takedown in their UFC tenures. However, if Harris were to ever do so, this would be the contest to test his wrestling prowess as Godbeer is notoriously poor at stopping opposing takedowns. That may be a wise option for Harris should Godbeer insist in fighting in the pocket as Harris’ chin hasn’t been ironclad either. Regardless, I liked the steady improvements Harris had shown prior to the Werdum contest and expect to see more of the same here. Given the durability issues of both, don’t count on this one lasting too long.
Harris via KO of RD2
Ovince Saint Preux (21-10) vs. Corey Anderson (10-3), Light Heavyweight
With Patrick Cummins pulling out due to a staph infection, Saint Preux offered to step in on short notice in hopes of picking up his third consecutive win after dropping three in a row. Regardless of who wins, the winner is a strong contender to earn a crack at Daniel Cormier down the line… provided Cormier doesn’t surrender his title any time soon.
Saint Preux already received a crack at a belt upon one of the occasions Cormier was supposed to clash with eternal rival Jon Jones only to for the current champ to suffer an injury. Saint Preux managed to go the distance with Jones, but it was also arguably Jones’ worst performance since he his early years in the UFC. Nonetheless, Saint Preux has never faced Cormier and is one of the more recognizable names at 205.
Employing a kick-heavy approach, Saint Preux tends to get in trouble if he stays in close range for too long. Yes, he has very heavy hands and may be the most explosive athlete in the division, allowing him to score KO’s out of nowhere with his sudden burst. Nonetheless, his boxing in the pocket has never progressed to anything effective outside of single shots from range, assisted by his 82" reach to cover ground quickly. His ability to fight out of either stance and throw with either leg is another obstacle opponents must overcome.
Anderson is a far more traditional striker, putting together fundamental boxing combinations, crisp footwork, and a developing jab. He can get overexcited at times and begin looking exclusively for the kill shot, leaving himself wide open for a slick counter puncher – such as Saint Preux – to capitalize on his mistakes. Provided he stays disciplined, Anderson pushes a fast pace that most light heavyweights can’t match.
The heart and soul of Anderson’s game remains his wrestling. Armed with powerful double-legs and the ability to disguise his entries, Anderson has been able to get the fight to the ground when he wants. Well… up until his last performance against Jimi Manuwa. That highlighted one of the issues with Anderson; either he’s just in wrestling mode or striking mode without the ability to switch between the two. When he does get the fight to the ground, his ground-and-pound has looked better with each successive performance.
Saint Preux’s wrestling doesn’t have the same pedigree as Anderson, but he’s more capable of getting a takedown if he really wants one… at least early in the fight. Saint Preux tends to exhaust himself in a hurry if he emphasizes a ground game, part of the reason he doesn’t always employ that strategy. He’s also become the premier specialist for the Von Flue choke to the point many want to dub it the Von Preux choke. After three wins via the rare choke, I can’t say I’d argue that.
I’ll admit Saint Preux has looked good in his last two contests, but Rogerio de Lima and a late notice Yushin Okami are hardly the type of wins that scream future champion. Anderson has yet to pick up a signature win – though his decision loss to Shogun Rua is debatable – falling short every time he gets the opportunity to add a major scalp. This feels like his time. He has a full camp and an opponent who tends to fade when forced to wrestle for extended periods. He’ll need to stay disciplined to avoid Saint Preux turning out his lights, but I like his chances.
Anderson via decision
Randy Brown (9-2) vs. Mickey Gall (4-0), Welterweight
The first two products of Lookin’ for a Fight meet to prove who is superior! OK, so there isn’t a whole lot of hype behind this contest, but at least it is a contest that makes sense for both of the raw prospects.
Gall was an absolute unknown when he joined the UFC, owning one professional fight over another debuting fighter. Three fights later and we still don’t know much about him as Mike Jackson, CM Punk, and Sage Northcutt aren’t exactly your typical UFC competition that will answer questions about your abilities. For context, Jackson and Punk were making their professional debuts against Gall. Nonetheless, Gall has shown natural athleticism, a high-level fight IQ for someone with his experience, and brilliant grappling prowess. He knows his grappling is his strongest attribute and wastes little time getting the fight where he’s best using a growing array of traditional wrestling takedowns and trips.
While Brown is Gall’s most proven competition, he’s still a raw product himself. He has proven to be an efficient striker, recently developing a jab to better capitalize on his 78" reach. A strong clinch game has been another advancement in his progress, leveraging his large frame to dig knees in deep. Being able to compete in those areas has only enhanced his mid-range boxing, long his preferred fighting distance thanks to his natural power and decent footwork.
What this fight boils down to is who can best survive in the other’s world. Gall looked very uncomfortable on his feet against Northcutt with his chin leading the way with every strike. Brown hasn’t looked great on the ground, but he has shown improved submission defense, some slick submission abilities of his own, and sound takedown defense. However, Brown struggled against an aggressive wrestler in Mike Graves. Gall isn’t the wrestler Graves is, but he has great killer instinct is relentless in his pursuit of the finish.
Though hardly confident in my pick, I’m going with Brown. Gall’s lack of basic standup defense really frightens me away from taking the grappler. I know Gall has been away for almost a year to hone his craft, but Brown’s been gone for quite a while too and has a lot of room for improvement himself. While I expect it to be fun, I also expect it to be sloppy.
Brown via TKO of RD2
Bettors Fading GSP In His Return At UFC 217
Dan McGuire - Sports Insights
Thirty-six-year-old Georges St-Pierre (25-2 MMA, 19-2 UFC), one of the greatest fighters of our generation, will mark his return on Saturday night at UFC 217 in New York City for a shot at the middleweight belt against Michael Bisping (30-7 MMA, 20-7 UFC).
St-Pierre, often referred to as GSP, last fought nearly four years ago at UFC 167. After beating Johny Hendricks as a split-decision winner (48-47, 47-48, 48-47) in that bout on November 16, 2013, GSP decided to retire. He had a winning streak of 12 matches and had just retained the UFC welterweight belt at the time, but many agreed that his body had taken a toll. GSP had also grown tired of the constant steroid abusers in the sport, something which continues to taint the UFC and MMA. As a tactical fighter, the preparation and pressure of big fights also played a big role in his decision to leave.
For his return at UFC 217, GSP opened -150 against Michael Bisping back in early August and the line initially rose to -155. However, his odds have steadily dropped over that time as public bettors and bigger money has taken Bisping to win.
At Pinnacle sportsbook, GSP isn’t even the favorite anymore. He’s now listed at -101 with Bisping the favorite at -111 odds. The drastic line movement has helped books balance their action though. As you can see from the line history below, more bettors are willing to take GSP now that the odds have dropped. We saw similar 50-cent line movement on the Dodgers for World Series Game 7, but we know how that ended up.
If you made a bet against GSP anytime after April 7, 2007, you lost. But this is obviously a much different scenario having gone four years without fighting. Public bettors like to look to recent results when making a wager, and those just don’t exist for GSP. Hence, public bettors have been loading up on Bisping over the last couple months to sway the odds. With the fight expected to go the distance, there may be some value created on GSP now that the line has shifted.
GSP/Bisping is a rare matchup where the public has pounded the underdog and caused line movement that way.
The Insider’s Breakdown and fight picks for UFC 217
MMA Insider
Michael Bisping vs George St-Pierre
Whatever the rights or wrongs of this match-up it is certainly intriguing. I’ve heard Chael Sonnen say he’s trained with both and he thinks GSP is the Stronger of the two. I don’t believe this for a second Bisping is all heart and i think GSP will struggle to get him to the deck. I’m leaning towards a Bisping decision 3/2.
Verdict: Bisping by decision
Cody Garbrandt vs TJ Dillashaw
There is more fucking heat between these two guy’s than any in recent memory. The former Team Alpha Male gym buddies are still arguing over the circumstances of Dillashaw’s leaving that camp. Cody is the superior striker but if it goes ground and pound TJ has a the advantage. Cody is all fired up for this but he’ll need to control the emotions and release the energy in controlled manner….over 5 rounds i suspect.
Verdict: Cody Garbrandt by decision
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Rose Namajunas
Another title fight in the female straw-weight division. This is my FIGHT of THE NIGHT. I think we have a cracking contest on the cards here. Joanna absolutely destroyed Jessica Andrade in her last title defence and for me her performance in that fight was performance of the year so far. So she should beat Thug Rose easy right?
Well i think this is where an upset might happen. Rose is growing in stature all the time and i think she may be getting this shot at just the right time. Joanna is many things but she is not a great finished. technically beautiful yes. Finisher no. Rose Namajanus is the type of fighter you need to finish when the opportunity arises or she’ll come back and finish you. I’m plumping for and upset in this one.
Verdict: Rose Namajanus by submission round 4
Thompson Vs Masvidal
Very interesting fight with both Fighters coming off a loss. In Wonder boy’s case a draw and a loss. Every time I am about to jump on the Masvidal bandwagon he suffers a loss. Last time out i thought he was unlucky not to get the decision against Demian Maia but for me he under performed on the night.
There is no questioning Wonderboy Thompson’s ability but what i do question is the beatings he took in those title fights he had against Tyron Woodley. Especially the first one. I suspect they have taken their toll more than we think. I’m gonna go for the beast Masividal in this one.
Verdict: Masvidal by TKO in round 2
Johnny Hendricks vs Paula Cost Borrachinha
As ever Hendricks conditioning is the question mark. He has had so much trouble making weight in recent times that it really is a factor in weighing up his chances. He looks and sounds like a man that is in great condition but we really won’t know until he does the final purge in the last 24 hours. Paulo has won his last two fight by TKO but Johnny is a huge step up in class and i don’t see him knocking him out. I’m going with the Bigg Rigg in this one in a possible fight of the night scenario
Verdict: Hendricks by decision
All 24 fighters made weight without issue.
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