UFC 217 Betting Info

[New York Knight]

Fighter on Fighter: Breaking down UFC 217’s Michael Bisping
Andrew Richardson - MMA Mania



Striking

Bisping really stands out as one of the first to rely on such a high-volume of strikes. He breaks down his foe with constant work, forcing them to spend energy just trying to keep up with him. Before long, that’s impossible, and Bisping is able to make up for any technical or athletic disadvantages with pure numbers. On the whole, Bisping relies on his boxing more than anything else. He's a fairly long and tall Middleweight who makes good use of that range, peppering his opponents from the outside and keeping them on the end of his punches. A large part of this is because of his footwork, as Bisping does a nice job staying light on his feet and preventing his foe from closing the distance into the clinch easily.

Bisping relies heavily on his straight punches. He does a nice job snapping his opponent's head back with the jab, and Bisping will follow up with a solid cross as well. This is really the core of Bisping's game -- he generally finds good success on the feet when sticking to simple combinations of long punches. Simple though they may be, Bisping's feints and activity make these combinations effective.

Bisping simply never stops poking at his opponent with these strikes.

If all of that seems pretty simple, it's because Bisping's boxing game isn't really that complicated. Bisping is just remarkably consistent about maintaining his movements, feints and form.

Composure was precisely what allowed Bisping to out-strike Anderson Silva for a vast majority of the fight. Silva tried to draw Bisping in and make him sloppy, but Bisping stayed disciplined and kept himself safe from most of the Brazilian's counter strikes.

As Silva failed to land, he became the one getting a bit wild, and that's when Bisping did his best work. Early in the fight, Bisping managed to rock and drop Silva by avoiding his counter punches and catching him off-guard.

In his last two bouts, much has been made about the power of Bisping’s left hook. Nowadays, Bisping does a far better job of turning his hips into the left hook, allowing him to land with far more force. The left hook is known as the king of counter punches for a reason, and Bisping stays ready to throw the strike thanks to his focus on remaining in good position.

Together, those traits allow him to find opportunities.

Beyond his boxing, it's worth mentioning that his overall kicking ability has improved greatly over the years. He now mixes chopping low kicks and quick head kicks into his game and movement rather efficiently, which is a nice wrinkle to his game. That was quite noticeable opposite Dan Henderson in the rematch also, as Bisping repeatedly used left kicks to occupy Henderson’s right hand and slow him down.

If Henderson was blocking left kicks with his right hand, he couldn’t very well punch Bisping’s face with it at the same time.

Against a pair of counter punching Southpaw kickers in Silva and Rockhold, Bisping did a very nice job of disrupting their rhythm by attacking the lead leg. Often, his low kicks came in the form of quick round kicks, solely designed to unbalance his opponent’s stance. However, Bisping also attacked with push kicks to the lead leg, which makes throwing anything with power difficult.

By stymieing his opponent’s offense for a moment, Bisping lands an small strike with no consequence. If his opponent tries to force a counter or sloppily attacks from out-of-position in response, Bisping is in better position to land strikes.

Bisping is very much a fighter who gets better as the fight drags on. Because of his pace and excellent conditioning, Bisping is able to maintain his output and continue to establish his rhythm even deep into a fight. Meanwhile, his opponent -- even if he doesn't completely gas -- will usually start to slow down, which allows Bisping to land harder shots and become more effective.

As Bisping begins to land more, he builds upon his combinations. Rather than merely peck his opponent from the outside, Bisping will start to commit more of his weight to punches and dig to the body. By increasing his output even more, Bisping grows his advantage as his opponent is forced to do even more work.

Furthermore, Bisping will even close the distance a bit and work in the clinch. That's an area where he's rather effective with harder punches and knees, further taxing his opponent's conditioning as well.

Defensively, Bisping has always been a hittable fighter. He has a habit of standing a bit too tall and attempting to back straight out of exchanges, which has left him open to wide counter punches.

Prior to the Dan Henderson rematch, I was warming up a bit to the idea that Bisping really was a top-tier Middleweight. After all, wins over Anderson Silva and Luke Rockhold are nothing to scoff at regardless of the circumstances. And while Bisping certainly did improve upon the result of the first match, he also showed some huge vulnerabilities and defensive lapses that imply that his resurgence and high-level performances won’t be long-lasting.

In that bout, Bisping fought essentially a one-punch fighter without takedowns. Henderson is crafty, but pretty much every piece of effective offense came from his overhand right. Bisping knew this going in, as did every fan who has watched “Hendo” fight in recent years. Despite having all this foresight and a full training camp that could be dedicated fully to avoiding that punch, Bisping’s ended the bout looking even worse than the picture below, scraping by with a close decision win.


Wrestling

Bisping's wrestling grew from a weakness to a strength across his career. He's still not a very active offensive wrestler, but he's managed to shift the momentum of a few fights by scoring some key takedowns and landing shots from top position.

When Bisping does look for the takedown, it's usually for a standard double-leg against the cage. Bisping does a nice job of disguising the shot by scoring with a lot of dirty boxing in the clinch before level changing, which helps him get deep on his opponent's hips.

If he manages to lock his hands, the takedown comes easily.

Bisping is a very difficult man to takedown thanks in large part to his movement-heavy striking style. Bisping is constantly circling around -- often while he punches -- which makes lining up a double leg rather difficult. Since he prefers volume striking to stepping into power punches, it's not easy to catch him off-balance from punching either. Finally, Bisping's habit of striking at the end of his own range is also very helpful.

To counter his opponent's shot, Bisping has a strong sprawl and whizzer. If his opponent does manage to close the distance into the clinch or against the cage, Bisping is still a difficult man to control. Notably, he did a very nice job reversing the clinch opposite Chael Sonnen and forcing him back into the cage.

For a long time, Bisping was the absolute best at working back to his feet after being taken down. His loss to Tim Kennedy — still the only man to truly control Bisping on the mat — may have caused him to lose that crown, but he remains a special fighter in that area. It’s a longtime strength for Bisping, one worthy of this week’s technique analysis.


Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

Bisping is not much of an offensive jiu-jitsu player, but he's nonetheless proven his grappling ability. When on the mat, he does a decent job working to advance position, though it's usually with the goal of landing ground strikes rather than attempting submissions. Defensively, Bisping is a very solid grappler. He's only ever been submitted once in his long career, and that was directly after absorbing a nasty head kick from Rockhold. A more fair example of his defensive grappling came against Kennedy, as Bisping repeatedly recovered from bad positions to get back to his guard and avoided the grappler's submission attempts.


Conclusion

In three fights, Bisping changed his legacy from long-time company man and game scrapper to a champion with a pair of wins over all-time greats and a first-round knockout win over a man who appeared to be the next dominant champion. Georges St. Pierre may be moving up a weight class and coming off a layoff, but a win over him still means something. It completes an incredible resume for Bisping, and at the end of the day, most will ignore the circumstances of those victories and only see the final scorecards.

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 predictions, preview, and analysis
Jesse Holland - MMA Mania



185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Michael “The Count” Bisping (30-7) vs. Georges “Rush” St-Pierre (25-2)

Nostradumbass predicts: What’s amazing about Georges St-Pierre is the simplicity of his offense and how effective it’s become in combat sports. “Rush,” working under the tutelage of famed boxing trainer Freddie Roach, is one of the few UFC fighters who understands how to use the jab, and why it’s so goddamn effective against flat-footed power punchers.

The super-speedy “Rush” does not have knockout power, so he will jab the shit out of you (see Koscheck, Josh), then charge in and take you to the floor (see Else, Everyone). His wrestling is top shelf and for a guy who never competed collegiately, it’s kind of bewildering. The typical St-Pierre gameplan, at its core, is not exactly rocket science, but the French-Canadian is the sort of high-level athlete who can maintain that breakneck pace for 25 minutes without batting an eyelash. Shit, he could probably do 10 rounds and then go run a half-marathon.

The jab is critical here because despite being shorter than middleweight champion Michael Bisping, St-Pierre does hold a one-inch advantage in reach. Sure, “Rush” is moving up from welterweight, but he’s probably as naturally strong as most 185-pounders and we’ve seen Bisping struggle against talented wrestlers. Had this fight taken place in 2014, which would have made sense after squeaking by Johny Hendricks, then St-Pierre would be a safe bet.

It’s not 2014.

St-Pierre lives and dies on his athleticism, and while his 38th birthday did not come with a pair of adult diapers, it has to be taken into consideration when fighting a bigger foe across five grueling rounds. This is not the same as Randy Couture coming back to school Tim Sylvia, who shares DNA with a platypus, because Bisping is no “Maine-iac.” Like his headlining counterpart, the stubborn Brit gives zero fucks about long fights and can easily do 25 minutes when the need arises and often gets stronger as the fight goes on. “The Count” is also 38, but he’s fighting down, as opposed to up, and outside of Tim Kennedy — who can benchpress a Volkswagen — Bisping is very difficult to keep down.

St-Pierre is the feel-good pick because it’s fun to boo Bisping. But we have to be realistic about the obstacles that “Rush” is facing. There is more to a four-year absence than simply getting older. The challenger will need time and space to regain his timing, to re-accustom himself to the *****s of cage fighting, and more importantly, deal with the panic of having a bigger opponent stymie a large portion of his offense. St-Pierre has never tired before, because he’s never had to deal with someone with the size and tenacity of Bisping, who to his credit, has greatly improved his defensive wrestling. I think St-Pierre’s in for a rude awakening and dare I say a late finish would not surprise me.


Final prediction: Bisping def. St-Pierre by technical knockout



135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Cody “No Love” Garbrandt (11-0) vs. T.J. Dillashaw (14-3)

Nostradumbass predicts: This could easily be “Fight of the Night” and perhaps a strong contender for “Fight of the Year,” barring an early finish, which is not an unrealistic outcome from either of these talented strikers. It was not that long ago when Cody Garbrandt was a talented but unproven up-and-comer with heavy hands. Well, we now know, thanks to a masterful performance against former bantamweight deity Dominick Cruz, that “No Love” can juke, jive, and wail just as good as he can find that chin.

The jury is still out when it comes to high-level jiu-jitsu, so I won't anoint him the total package just yet, but when you can move and strike like Garbrandt does, there is little chance a fight actually makes it to the floor, unless one fighter planks after getting KTFO. Before every fight that amateur video of Garbrandt getting planished on the amateur circuit finds its way online, but it’s done nothing to rattle the former undefeated boxer or forecast the outcome of any of his subsequent performances.

There’s just no other way to put it: Garbrandt is the king of the bantamweights and earned his spot on the throne by kicking ass.

So too, has Dillashaw, and you can make an argument that the former Team Alpha Male (TAM) standout also defeated Cruz when they went to war back in early 2016, though the scorecards favored “Dominator” by a hair.

Dillashaw bounced back by avenging his loss to Raphael Assuncao, before turning away the tiny but powerful John Lineker. Like Garbrandt in the ammys, Dillashaw is also held accountable for getting stopped by John Dodson at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 14 Finale. And, also like Garbrandt, that shit is ancient history. Dillashaw is nearly six years removed from that loss and has been completely transformed as a fighter.

Enough to defeat Garbrandt?

The champ was standout wrestler in high school, and while he’s not as accomplished as Dillashaw in that department, his understanding of cage wrestling coupled with his footwork should be enough to neutralize that threat, assuming the challenger even wants to explore those possibilities. We can debate the fundamentals and go back-and-forth on who has the better mechanics, but I think we would all agree that we are looking at two outstanding martial artists.

That said, Dillashaw’s aggression will benefit Garbrandt’s counterpunching, and while both combatants are hittable, 25 minutes is a long time to endure without taking one of the champion’s power shots. He may not land cleanly, but when you mortar with shells like Garbrandt does, you don’t always need to.


Final prediction: Garbrandt def. Dillashaw by technical knockout



115 lbs.: UFC Strawweight Champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-0) vs. “Thug” Rose Namajunas (16-3)

Nostradumbass predicts: One of those most impressive things about reigning strawweight champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk is how successful she’s been in repelling every style of attack. While she’s billed as a striker — and a very good one at that — the champ has done more than just outstrike her opponents.

Jedrzejczyk has thwarted high-level wrestlers like Carla Esparza, talented jiu-jitsu grapplers like Claudia Gadelha, and aggressive power-punchers like Jessica Andrade. Even patient, technical strikers like Karolina Kowalkiewicz came up empty.

And Jedrzejczyk has cardio for days, which is a big (and important) part of her game.

All of those aforementioned opponents have brought more to the table than Rose Namajunas, who will attempt to usurp the 115-pound throne in the first of three title fights. Since coming up short in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20, “Thug” has captured four of five, with three submission finishes.

Her competition has oscillated between good and merely “okay,” but we blame the division for that, not the fighter, as there is only a finite number of opponents hovering around the top five. Her split-decision loss to Kowalkiewicz was not a blowout and Namajunas could easily be 5-0 instead of 4-1 during that span.

I’m still concerned that she has yet to finish a fight by way of KO/TKO.

With that in mind, I can’t imagine what she can offer that Jedrzejczyk hasn’t already seen — and conquered. This idea that a weird, funky style is enough to unseat a dominant champion is silly, and hardly the sort of thing you want to pin your hopes to.

Simply put, Jedrzejczyk is a superior striker with outstanding takedown defense and punishing clinch work. Namajunas will fight valiantly, but she’s eventually going to wilt under the accumulation of Polish punches.


Final prediction: Jedrzejczyk def. Namajunas by technical knockout



170 lbs.: Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson (13-2-1) vs. Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (32-12)

Nostradumbass predicts: Jorge Masvidal is ranked in the top five at 170 pounds, which to me, is somewhat surprising. I don’t have anything against “Gamebred” as a fighter, he’s certainly talented both on the feet and on the ground, but his stepping stones to the top of the welterweight porch have been padded with tired names from yesteryear.

That his biggest win to date came over Donald Cerrone, a natural lightweight, is telling.

Prior to lassoing “Cowboy,” Masvidal beat the brakes off Jake Ellenberger, who hasn't been relevant in over four years. That followed his decision win over the grizzled but irrelevant Ross Pearson, equalling two fighters who are not even ranked in the top 15.

Before that? Lazy losses to Lorenz Larkin and Ben Henderson.

That stands in stark contrast to Stephen Thompson, who is just two spots ahead of Masvidal, despite a more impressive resume. “Wonderboy” also recycled his share of cans, and how much stock we put in his win over the fading Johnny Hendricks is debatable, but you can’t discount 10 rounds with division champion Tyron Woodley — a teammate of Masvidal’s — nor should we overlook the fact that Thompson sent interim middleweight champion Robert Whittaker to another division.

Then shipped Rory MacDonald to Bellator.

Thompson is not the green giant he was earlier in his career, at least in terms of the ground game, but it’s still a factor in this three-round affair and there for Masvidal to exploit. That’s where it gets tricky for “Gamebred,” because he seems more concerned with fighting and less concerned with winning.

I don’t expect Masvidal to give Thompson the room he needs to work. The former kickboxing phenom is strongest at range and his one-inch reach advantage is not enough to sound any alarms. That said, Masvidal is notorious for his lack of urgency and often forgets that damage inflicted is not as important as points scored. It’s likely to cost him the win.


Final prediction: Thompson def. Masvidal by unanimous decision



185 lbs.: Paulo “Borrachinha” Henrique Costa (10-0) vs. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks (18-7)

Nostradumbass predicts: It’s hard to know what went wrong in the career of Johny Hendricks, or where, but “Bigg Rigg” has not won back-to-back fights in over four years and is just 3-5 since coming up short against Georges St-Pierre back in 2013. In addition, he’s missed weight a bunch of times — even after jumping up to middleweight — and was stopped in his last fight against Tim Boetsch.

At 34 years of age, I’m not expecting a career resurgence.

That’s a shame, because Hendricks has a formidable offense, blending NCAA Division-1 wrestling with knockout power in his left hand. I’m not sure what happened to either of them, as the bearded brawler hasn't finished a fight since creaming the now-retired Martin Kampmann back in late 2012.

I think you know where I’m going with this.

Paulo Henrique Costa is eight years younger than Hendricks and has finished all 10 of his professional fights — nine of them by way of violent knockout. That includes his UFC debut against Oluwale Bamgbose back in June. Prior to that, “Borrachinha” was making a mockery the Brazilian circuit, which includes a handful of appearances for Jungle Fight in Sao Paulo.

The easiest and most obvious criticism is that Costa has never fought anyone in the division top 10, while Hendricks has faced a murderer’s row at welterweight and some pretty tough names at 185 pounds. Keep in mind that his losses to Neil Magny and Kelvin Gastelum weren’t exactly blowouts. Even with his current slump, this should be Hendricks’ fight to lose. But it’s not just the losses that give me pause, it’s his performances, too.

“Bigg Rigg” has looked flat, uninspired, and lost inside the cage.

Combine that with his mental issues outside the cage, which are no doubt behind his struggles to make weight, and I just can’t pick Hendricks to beat a younger, hungrier, and more aggressive fighter. One who is a natural middleweight with a three inch height and reach advantage. This could be over fairly quickly.


Final prediction: Costa def. Hendricks by technical knockout

[New York Knight]

Michael Bisping (30-7 MMA, 20-7 UFC)

Staple info:

•Height: 6’1″ Age: 38 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 75.5″
•Last fight: Decision win over Dan Henderson (Oct. 8, 2016)
•Camp: RVCA Gym (California)
•Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
•Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ UFC middleweight champion
+ “TUF 3” winner
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 18 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ Excellent feints and footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Good cardio and conditioning
+ Accurate left hook
+ Underrated wrestling
+ Good guard retentions and getups
– Dropped in 4 of last 6 fights



Georges St-Pierre (25-2 MMA, 19-2 UFC)

Staple info:

•Height: 5’11” Age: 36 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 76″
•Last fight: Decision win over Johny Hendricks (Nov. 16, 2013)
•Camp: Tristar Gym (Canada)
•Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
•Risk management: Excellent


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ Kyokushin karate black belt
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ 8 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ Intelligent and tactical fighter
+ Well-versed striker
^ Conducts well off of the jab
+ Tremendous takedown ability
^ Changes level, chains, transitions
+ Excellent top game
^ Superb passing and ground strikes
– Coming off of a 4-year layoff



Summary:

The main event in Madison Square Garden is a superfight for the middleweight title as champ Michael Bisping welcomes back Georges St-Pierre.

A longtime staple of the UFC, Bisping’s better days were thought to be behind him after the veteran sustained an eye injury that was cause for concern and inconsistent performances alike. But after a storybook resurgence that came to fruition in 2016, the Englishman earned his long-sought title after beating the likes of Anderson Silva, Luke Rockhold and Dan Henderson.

Seeking another legendary name to add to his resume, Bisping has accepted the challenge of a returning champion who’s also chasing history.

Considered the greatest welterweight of all time, St-Pierre was one of the few to walk away as champion, as well as a pound-for-pound great. Now, nearly four years after his last appearance in the octagon, St-Pierre has decided to return north of his usual weight class while attempting to become just the fourth fighter to achieve gold in two divisions.

With the intangible of St-Pierre’s extended layoff, it can be difficult to forecast what style or state the former welterweight champ will return in.

Given St-Pierre’s insane work ethic, resources and obsessive nature, I am sure he’s coming into this contest in serviceable, battle-ready condition. Still, I would not be surprised to see a different version of the French-Canadian, who has had multiple iterations to his game throughout his career.

Coming from a Kyokushin karate base, St-Pierre’s striking style shone through in his initial ascension up the UFC ranks.

Embracing his sport karate stylings, St-Pierre would almost bounce in and out of range, working particularly well when striking off of his lead leg. And even though he could win fights on the feet, the French-Canadian was a complete fighter who was quietly crafting his wrestling game (with the help of Olympians) for the challenges ahead.

Not only did St-Pierre steadily develop into one of the best wrestlers in the division, but he – more importantly – used his newfound skills to fuel his love for strategy.

After his first career loss in what was a title fight with UFC Hall of Famer Matt Hughes, St-Pierre began to gameplan much more wisely for his opposition. Against former welterweight title challengers in Frank Trigg and Sean Sherk, we saw St-Pierre do the unthinkable by out-wrestling two of the most accoladed wrestlers in the division to score spirit-crushing stoppages.

Although St-Pierre eventually earned his first welterweight belt, he quickly lost it to Matt Serra in what was one of the biggest upsets in MMA history.

From that point on, St-Pierre further hedged his bets in regards to preparation and strategy. After winning back his belt from Serra, St-Pierre continued to pile up victories before retiring following 12 straight wins.

Despite St-Pierre’s conservative style drawing criticism from some, the dominance of his game paints a pretty clear path for him in this matchup.

Bisping, a stick-and-move stylist, should have the on-paper advantages for as long this fight stays standing.

Coming from a kickboxing base, we saw Bisping steadily evolve his style over the years. After his knockout loss to Henderson, the Englishman made a concerted effort to come back better and sounder than before.

Since then, we have seen Bisping improve upon his hand and head positioning, as well as sitting down more on his punches. Although his high-output approach still makes him hittable by nature, we have seen Bisping minimize these scenarios since joining forces with Jason Parillo.

A striking coach with strong boxing roots, Parillo has helped many notable fighters grow, including lightweight legend B.J. Penn. In turn, we now see Bisping move much more fluidly with his footwork, which fuels his pulling and returning preferences.

Applying angles appropriately, Bisping will also change his level more, which can open up his options and make him harder to hit. What is most impressive about the Englishman’s renaissance is the fact that he is doing it with only one healthy eye.

Shortly after his loss to Vitor Belfort, Bisping sustained an eye injury that required surgery, albeit not corrective.

Despite initially struggling in his return fight against Tim Kennedy, Bisping has since shown he can come back into combat, carrying a heightened sense of urgency and awareness about his game. Coupled with the byproducts of gelling with his striking coach, we have seen Bisping have his best years during what is arguably the winter of his career.

Still, striking improvements aside, Bisping has demonstrated that he is not beyond being taken down, which sets up the key dynamic for this fight.

Whether it’s through offensive or reactionary takedowns (that take place against the fence or in the open), I see St-Pierre inevitably getting Bisping to the ground.

The question, however, is: What will he be able to accomplish while there?

One of the best guard passers and ground strikers to grace the octagon, St-Pierre will undoubtedly have an array of options he can employ. That said, he will also be facing one of the best get-up artists in the game.

Although wrestling pressure has been Bisping’s traditional foil, he surprisingly succeeds little control time in both wins and losses. Facilitated by active hips, the Englishman beautifully utilizes a butterfly or half-guard to create enough space to stand or scoot his way to the fence.

Not afraid to turtle and stand if he needs to, Bisping displays excellent grip and hip awareness, making it difficult to grab his back in the process of getting up. St-Pierre has shown the ability to take an opponent’s back smoothly, but his conservative sensibilities had him opting for ride positions toward the latter part of his career.

Don’t get me wrong: St-Pierre electing high-percentage options is not bad in theory, but I see his style allowing Bisping to get back to this feet if the French-Canadian isn’t willing to put his pieces on the line when it comes to fighting for position.

So, with the most recent iteration of St-Pierre in mind, I have a hard time seeing Bisping getting submitted or stopped on the floor unless compromised prior. Nevertheless, takedowns score and will likely bank St-Pierre rounds, which leads me to my next question: How long will he be able to employ his transition game?

St-Pierre was known for his conditioning and pace prior, but he is coming into this fight at least 15 pounds heavier than usual, with an additional four years of ring rust on his back. Whether it’s the weight of the moment or the literal pounds put on, St-Pierre will have some on-the-job intangibles to work through.

Furthermore, the stereotype of St-Pierre’s biological makeup and transition game shine less brightly when re-watching his last three fights – matchups that ended up putting the most miles on him, statistically speaking.

Not only did the former welterweight kingpin, in my opinion, appear to be a beat slower in transit (to what was an already slimmed down and refined game), but St-Pierre also seemed to struggle with his accuracy and output numerically.

We even saw Nick Diaz, who has an otherwise vacant double-leg defense, stuff legitimate takedown attempts from St-Pierre in their last two rounds of action. It was also in the mid to late rounds in which we saw St-Pierre sustain the most damage in each of his final three performances.

These type of trends usually don’t decrease over time, but the oddsmakers and public seem to be much more optimistic for the returning legend given how competitive the betting lines have been.

Part of me is happy to see St-Pierre back, and finally taking a step up in the size of his competition. However, I also feel he’s reaching into the wrong cookie jar for multiple reasons.

In the fight game, timing is typically the first thing to go, and we’ve seen it tax the greatest names in this sport. If St-Pierre cannot find his finish on the floor, then I see him eventually succumbing to Bisping’s pace and pressure before the final bell.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst Pick: Bisping inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Cody Garbrandt (11-0 MMA, 6-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’7″ Age: 26 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Dominick Cruz (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Team Alpha Male (California)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ UFC bantamweight title
+ Multiple wrestling accolades
+ 32-1 as an amateur boxer
+ 9 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Creates angles and openings
+ Accurate left hook
+ Improved defense/head movement
^ Fundamental sense of range
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Demonstrates good grappling IQ
^ Scrambles/gets up well



T.J. Dillashaw (15-3 MMA, 10-3 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68″
Last fight: Decision win over John Lineker (Dec. 30, 2016)
Camp: Bang Muay Thai (California)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC bantamweight champion
+ 3x NCAA qualifier
+ 6 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ High-volume striker
+ Superb feints and footwork
^ Effectively switches stances
+ Pulls and returns punches well
^ Often punctuates combos with hooks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Solid scrambler =/transitional grappler



Summary:

UFC 217’s co-main event has barnburner written all over it as champ Cody Garbrandt and T.J. Dillashaw finally do battle for the bantamweight title.

Garbrandt, the sitting titleholder, will not only be looking to defend his belt, but also his team’s honor with the rivalry that has unfolded over the past two years.

Dillashaw, the former champ, will be tasked with taking on a former training partner who holds the title he so desperately wants back.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two skilled strikers who have wrestling bases.

Initially entering the sport as a wrestler, we saw Dillashaw steadily evolve out of the scrambling, submission0grappler mold that was influenced by his environment. Embracing the teachings of Duane “Bang” Ludwig, we saw the NCAA qualifier transition into a skilled striker over the past few years.

Like many fighters who are naturally orthodox but switch to southpaw, Dillashaw typically conducts traffic off of his right hand. Whether he is setting up left crosses and power kicks from southpaw, or favoring his uppercuts and overhands from orthodox, it’s Dillashaw’s check-right-hand/jab that is a key to his offense.

Using it to off-beat his opponent’s offensive rhythms, Dillashaw will add to the disarray by incorporating subtle but effective shifts that change the stance (and even angle) of his attack. Nevertheless, Dillashaw’s shifting style is aggressive by nature, which means that he will need to be careful with what is coming back at him.

A power puncher who came up wrestling and boxing, Garbrandt’s skill set and style have been a seamless fit for MMA.

Utilizing feints and forward-pressure to bait exchanges, Garbrandt subtly and slightly moves off center to execute his combinations. Although Garbrandt will usually enter off of his righthand, he does a lot of his cleanup hitting with his left hook, and I feel that punch may serve him well in this fight.

Another layer to the champion’s game is his improvements in regards to head movement and angles. He’s a longtime cross-hook connoisseur, and we now see Garbrandt roll appropriately behind his crosses to avoid check-hook counters as he comes up with hooks of his own.

That said, Garbrandt’s brawling sensibilities have shown themselves in past fights, sometimes lowering his hands in pocket exchanges. Despite Garbrandt’s heightened sense of spatial awareness and defense, he could get taxed by a check-hook or head kick himself if he’s not careful.

Regardless of how the standing exchanges go, it is in the wrestling department where things could get potentially interesting. Both fighters possess excellent wrestling abilities but utilize them in different ways.

Dillashaw, whose underrated ground game was on display in his last bout, primarily uses his wrestling to score late-round takedowns or to keep the fight standing. Garbrandt also uses his wrestling to keep fights standing, but seemingly keeps a double-leg ready, using it to reset or recover when catching himself over-committing to punches on the inside.

Albeit a small sample-size, Garbrandt appears to have good positional awareness and grappling IQ on the mat. However, I still slightly lean toward Dillashaw in regards to grappling advantages given his past proclivities and overall experience.

For that reason, I will be interested to see if Dillashaw has the intent to fight on the floor, much less the ability to get Garbrandt down. Should either man find success in grounding the other, I do not suspect that the stanzas will last long given their scrambling ability.

In what is arguably the closest the fight on the card surprisingly has the most logical betting lines attached.

According to Las Vegas odd, Garbrandt, the champ, is slightly favored over Dillashaw to win this fight. Even though I feel that Dillashaw is the more diverse fighter with multiple paths to victory, Garbrandt’s ever-growing evolution can be hard to bet against, especially after what we saw last December.

Ultimately, this is a contest that is hard to confidently pick a winner on paper – and it gets even dicier when looking at it off paper.

Whenever two former training partners fight each other, it often makes for a slightly awkward, high-intangible affair. Coupled with the factors of Dillashaw’s camp jumping and Garbrandt’s recent back issues, and forecasting the action becomes even more difficult than usual.

If both men come in near their previous best, then I suspect that Garbrandt’s heavy-handed counters – fueled by his footspeed – will make the difference. Dillashaw’s volume and diversity of attack will make this battle competitive on cards, but I see Garbrandt’s ring generalship and power-punches punctuating rounds, possibly even earning himself a stoppage if the champion finds his timing early.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Garbandt inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-0 MMA, 8-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’6″ Age: 30 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Jessica Andrade (May 13, 2017)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ UFC strawweight champion
+ 5x muay Thai champion
+ 4 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 1 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Excellent footwork
^ Shifts, half-steps, pivots
+ Technically sound striker
^ Rarely throws self out of position
+ Accurate jabs and leg kicks
+ Superb defensive and offensive clinch
^ Solid head positioning and forearm framing
+ Underrated grappling IQ
^ Good get-up technique/urgency



Rose Namajunas (6-3 MMA, 4-2 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’5″ Age: 25 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 65″
Last fight: Submission win over Michelle Waterson (Apr. 15, 2017)
Camp: 303 Training Center (Denver, CO)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ “TUF 20” runner-up
+ Taekwondo and karate black belts
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 5 submission wins
+ 2 first-round finishes
+ Good footwork
^ Manages distance well
+ Accurate and effective jab
+ Counters well with right hand
+ Improved wrestling ability
^ Taken down all 6 UFC opponents
+ Solid top game/positional rides
^ Looks for / floats toward back
+ Active and attacking guard
^ Explosive hips



Summary:

Layering an already stacked main card is a showdown for the strawweight strap, as champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Rose Namajunas collide.

A reigning titleholder who has deservedly found her way into the pound-for-pound conversations, Jedrzejczyk will be putting more than just a belt on the line at UFC 217.

Looking to cease the moment is Namajunas, a “TUF 20” runner-up who is looking to finally make good on her quest for gold after initially coming up short in the division’s inaugural championship.

Among the many of Namajunas’ improvements since coming off of the show has been her active and educated left hand.

Although Namajunas is usually longer than the bulk of her contemporaries, she has steadily shown that she can accentuate her length as she steps into her jabs concisely.

More impressive than the accuracy of her jab is the fact that Namajunas does well with judging risk vs. reward in regards to her options of following up with a cross or backing up out of range.

Nevertheless, Namajunas will need to be on point early and often with her strikes if she means to stop the surmounting momentum of her fearless opponent.

Possessing an elite jab of her own, Jedrzejczyk will be one of the few fighters at strawweight who will be happy to oblige Namajunas at long range.

Throwing it actively and accurately, the development of Jedrzejczyk’s jab dates back to the beginning of her career, and this has been a crucial tool for her success. Like many muay Thai strikers transitioning into MMA, Jedrzejczyk also feared the takedown – subsequently avoiding throwing kicks comfortably until her very first title defense.

Now, showing the competency and confidence in her anti-grappling abilities, Jedrzejczyk will use her jab more for setups rather than safety, confidently attaching well-placed leg kicks to punctuate her presence.

Despite Jedrzejczyk demonstrating devastating leg kicks, I suspect she will throw them sparingly against Namajunas – at least at first.

Not only does Namajunas display the savvy and awareness to bait her lead leg for counters, but she also has a knack for hitting takedowns in the first round, which could cause the champion to fight conservative early.

Regardless of the each fighter’s choices on the feet, I feel that the clinch will play a key factor in this fight.

Although the dynamic of the matchup makes Namajunas dangerous here, Jedrzejczyk is the more technical fighter within these small spaces.

Whether she is inside the clinch or free to operate on the feet, seldom will you see Jedrzejczyk out of position or off balance. Jedrzejczyk is also diligent when it comes to her head position in close, something that helps the champion disrupt her opponent’s grappling efforts and makes her difficult to hit.

Assisting in this defensive wall is her subtle, but effective forearm framing. When getting ready to break off and strike, Jedrzejczyk will replace her forehead position with her forearms, creating just enough space for devasting short-elbows to follow.

Considering what we saw Namajunas subject to inside of the clinch with Koralina Kowalkiewicz, we could see the challenger under heavy fire if her takedown efforts fail to find success against Jedrzejczyk.

However, if Namajunas can ground the champion, we could see this fight’s temperature take a dramatic turn.

After a crushing loss to Carla Esparza, Namajunas hit an immediate upswing in her grappling, showing that she had more to offer than just an opportunistic submission game.

Utilizing offensive wrestling and top pressure, Namajunas began to take down her counterparts, exposing them to submission underneath her suggestive shoulder pressure and slick transitions. A superb back-taker, Namajunas has a knack for floating to or finding the back of her opponent.

Given that Namajunas is undefeated in fights in which she has found the back, this will undoubtedly be the champion’s worst-case scenario. Luckily for Jedrzejczyk, she demonstrates key techniques that should help her prevent that from happening.

Not only does the champion do well with using the fence to stand safely, but she also favors the single-leg get-up, a technique – in my opinion – that is underutilized in MMA.

Whether Jedrzejczyk ends up grounded in full-guard or side control, she always shrimps to half-guard so that she can swim inside for a single-leg grasp. From here, the champion will use the leverage created from this grip in a similar spirit to an underhook get-up.

Akin to Demian Maia’s half-guard series, Jedrzejczyk keeps her grasp low, which protects her from your typical guillotine or D’arce choke counters. But, unlike Maia, the champion will use this leverage to stand and separate rather than re-wrestle, something that will serve her well in this fight.

Although I agree with the oddsmakers in opening Jedrzejczyk as the favorite, I disagree with the variation of the betting line.

Given that the champion has been either seated by straight punches or taken down to the mat in her last few fights, I feel that Namajunas is much more lively than what’s listed.

That said, if Namajunas cannot conduct with her jab early, nor capitalize on crucial takedowns and transitions, then I see Jedrzejczyk crushing spirits inside of clinch space, steadily gaining the steam and success all the way to the scorecards.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Jedrzjeczyk by decision

[New York Knight]

Stephen Thompson (13-2-1 MMA, 8-2-1 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’0″ Age: 34 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 75″
Last fight: Decision loss to Tyron Woodley (Mar. 4, 2017)
Camp: Upstate Karate (South Carolina)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ Kempo karate black belt
+ 5x kicboxing world champion
+ 7 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Knocked down 5 of last 7 opponents
+ Superb footwork and range management
^ Plays in and out of striking range
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Instinctually intercepts with punches
+ Improved wrestling (defensively and offensively)
+ Underrated clinch game
^ Good head position/strikes off breaks



Jorge Masvidal (32-12 MMA, 9-5 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’11” Age: 32 Weight: 170 lbs. Reach: 74″
Last fight: Decision loss to Demian Maia (May 13, 2017)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Good


Supplemental info:

+ AFC welterweight title
+ Undefeated in the streets
+ 13 KO victories
+ 2 submission wins
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Slick boxing technique
^ Accurate shot selection
+ Improved kicking game
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Solid balance and footwork
+ Active transition and clinch game
^ Strikes well off of the breaks
+ Excellent wrestling ability
+ Underrated submision acumen
^ Works well from front-headlock



Summary:

In a potential welterweight war, Stephen Thompson squares off with Jorge Masvidal.

Coming off of two failed attempts against champion Tyron Woodley, Thompson attempts to get back on track in a familiar venue. Seeking to spoil his party – and likely walking out the theme from “Scarface” while doing so – is Masvidal, a top-ranked welterweight who’s also looking to rebound in style.

Starting off on the feet, we have a battle between two slick strikers with a lot of experience outside of the cage.

Masvidal, a streetwise warrior who has turned into one of the savvier strikers among his contemporaries, operates with the comfort of a longtime veteran. Feinting forward and initiating with his jab, Masvidal has always had a knack for pulling and returning punches with his opponents.

At lightweight, the Cuban’s style and available output had him arguably too comfortable at times, costing him crucial rounds in close fights – fights that many thought he had won. That said, we have seen a different iteration of Masvidal since his ascension up the welterweight division.

Now, pursuing much more aggressively, Masvidal will mix in his improved kicks off of Thai-style marches. Working well off of his patented lefthand, Masvidal controls the centerline with authority, variating between straight punches and hooks appropriately.

What makes Masvidal such a sound stalker is the fact that you will rarely catch him out of position. Nevertheless, Masvidal will have a unique problem to solve at UFC 217.

One of the few fighters to successfully translate traditional martial arts into MMA at a high level, Thompson incorporates a lot of fundamentals and principles that could serve him well in this matchup.

With footwork often being the quiet killer in the upper echelons of MMA, Thompson’s switch-stance stylings give him some options in regards to taking away Masvidal’s jab or limiting potential takedown attempts, especially from the southpaw stance.

In facing one of the most technically sound welterweight strikers in Rory MacDonald, we saw Thompson take away the Canadian’s jab using superb outside-foot awareness.

Keeping his lead foot just outside of his opponent’s lead foot, Thompson was able to shut down the traditional striking lanes, leaving MacDonald looking hesitant. Albeit a small detail, it was an impressive one since Thompson was able to consistently set or replace his foot to that position throughout the entire 25-minute fight.

With Thompson’s foot placement giving him inherent edges in exchanges, his wide array of attack angles and options could start to take shape if Masvidal fails to stifle him early.

Still, the Cuban is the more experienced mixed martial artist and one who should have a quiet but clear advantage on the mat. An excellent wrestler, Masvidal has the chops to ground Thompson if he gets a hold of him.

Given that Thompson tends to fight from the fence at times, I could certainly see a path for Masvidal, who just so happens to score most of his takedowns in that space. Regardless, pinning Thompson down can be easier said than done, and his improved wrestling defense doesn’t make it any easier.

If Masvidal does get Thompson grounded, I will be interested to see what both fighters’ urgency is like once they hit the floor.

Masvidal has an underrated submission game, but I am not sure he will find a finish here. However, if Thompson is reluctant to create a scramble, then he could cost himself another crucial round via control time.

Although the oddsmakers opened Thompson as a 2-1 favorite, the potential of each fighter on the feet makes this feel more like a pick’em.

I’m a big fan of Masvidal’s style, as I see him having more paths to victory on paper. But if he can’t get this fight to the floor or force exchanges inside of the clinch, then I see Thompson’s footwork and countering prowess posing problems for the Cuban down the stretch. I will reluctantly side with Thompson, and I hope for a strong showing from two fighters who I enjoy dearly.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Thompson by decision

[New York Knight]

Johny Hendricks (18-7 MMA, 13-7 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 5’9″ Age: 34 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 69″
Last fight: TKO loss to Tim Boetsch (June 25, 2017)
Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ Former UFC welterweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division 1 All-American wrestler
+ Division 1 national champion
+ 8 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous lefthand
^ Often doubles up
+ Improved kicks and knees
^ Typically punctuates off combos
+ Strong clinch and bodylock
^ Favors takedowns along the fence
+ Solid top game/control
– Has lost 3 of his last 4 fights



Paulo Costa (10-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC)

Staple info:

Height: 6’0″ Age: 26 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 72″
Last fight: TKO win over Oluwale Bambbose (June 3, 2017)
Camp: CJJF (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair


Supplemental info:

+ “TUF: Brazil 3” alum
+ Jungle Fight middleweight title
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu accolades
+ 9 KO victories
+ 1 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Imposing pressure
^ Feints and stalks well
+ Accurate shot selection
^ Variates rhythm and looks
+ Strong inside of the clinch
^ Shows wrestling fundamentals
+ Works well from topside
^ Rides, transitions, strikes



Summary:

Kicking off the main card in Madison Square Garden is a middleweight contest of potential consequence.

A former champion at 170 pounds who has spent 2017 as a middleweight, Johny Hendricks will be looking to right his ship after his recent struggles both inside the cage and on the scales.

Looking to steal the American’s spotlight is an undefeated Brazilian by the name of Paulo Costa. Formerly known as “Paulo Borrachinha,” Costa will be fighting outside of his home country for the first time.

Although the narrative of this matchup can feel like a possible changing of the guard in some ways, Hendricks will still be a legitimate step up in competition for the young Brazilian.

An accoladed wrestler who stormed onto the scene with a quick stoppage of Amir Sadollah at UFC 101, Hendricks has since come a long way.

Gaining more confidence and traction in his striking as he accrued experience, Hendricks’ game blossomed after decimating Jon Fitch in the opening frame with a vicious lefthand. Despite that weapon serving him well for years to come, we have mysteriously not seen it’s vaunted power in quite some time.

Nonetheless, Hendricks has since added to his game since working with striking coach Steven Wright.

As we have seen in the subsequent years, Hendricks will now flow more freely with his hooks and uppercuts, punctuating his combinations with leg kicks or knees when appropriate. Since moving to middleweight, we have seen a slight rebirth in these attributes – attributes that suffered toward the end of his welterweight run.

Nevertheless, Hendricks will need to respect what is coming back at him, and he will be playing with fire anytime he exchanges with his heavy-hitting opponent.

Despite starting off his martial arts experience in the grappling art of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Costa is a striker in every sense of the word.

A natural pressure-fighter, Costa will smartly work behind feints while stalking his prey.

Whether he is feint-baiting his opponents into crushing check-hooks and body kicks, or crashing the distance to intercept his opposition with a devastating cross, the Brazilian seems to be genuinely comfortable inside of exchanges.

Even when caught clean, Costa will no-sell his opponent’s shots as he comes right back in their face –– but with an adjusted and varied rhythm.

For me, it is an impressive feat to see a young fighter who otherwise seems like a bully, using subtle tactics like rhythm changes to avoid predictability with strikes.

Where this fight gets even more intriguing is when looking at the potential of grappling exchanges.

Considering that there is next to no footage of Costa on his back, this could be an area that Hendricks might try to exploit. An alum of Ohio State, I would not be surprised to see Hendricks dust off his Division I wrestling chops and attempt to take down the Brazilian.

Hendricks, who was a well-schooled grappler under the tutelage of Marc Laimon, has a lot to offer from topside in the form of submissions, strikes and positional rides. However, if the bigger man in Costa ends up in dominant positions, then Hendricks may get more than he bargains for given that the Brazilian is no slouch from topside.

Demonstrating an ability to transition and ride while striking, Costa appears to maintain a good sense of positional IQ and awareness. Still, he will need to pick his battles wisely since I give the on-paper edge to Hendricks in regards to grappling.

Although I hate to admit it, it is not hard to see why the oddsmakers have opened Costa as a favorite over the former champion.

Hendricks has lost three of four fights in the octagon, with arguably the same ratio of defeats taking place on the scale. Unless Hendricks can find the form he has spent the past couple of years searching for, then this may get worse before it ever gets better.



Official Mixed Martial Analyst pick: Costa inside the distance

[New York Knight]

Mixed Martial Analyst Prelimary card predictions


Joseph Duffy def. James Vick

Walt Harris def. Mark Godbeer

Ion Cutelaba def. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Randy Brown def. Mickey Gall

Curtis Blaydes def. Aleksei Oleinik

Ovince Saint Preux def. Corey Anderson

Ricardo Ramos def. Aiemann Zahabi



Props worth looking at:

Michael Bisping – inside the distance: +280 (0.5 unit)

Pulo Costa – inside the distance: -155 (1.5 units)


Straight plays:

Michael Bisping -105 (1 unit)


Playable parlay pieces (my most confident favorites):

Paulo Costa -255
Walt Harris -400


Fights to avoid (live dogs, high intangibles, etc.):

Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall
Stephen Thompson vs. Jorge Masvidal
Joseph Duffy vs. James Vick
Ricardo Ramos vs. Aiemann Zahabi



DraftKings recommendations

Paulo Costa: $8,900
Walt Harris: $8,800
Aiemann Zahabi: $8,700
Cody Garbrandt: $8,300
Machael Bisping: $8,100
Rose Namajunas: $7,000

Roster total: $49,800


Summary:

My fantasy MMA recommendations are officially back, which means that I will be sharing a DraftKings lineup for each UFC fight card, briefly expanding on the potential value of my picks.

Starting from the top, we have Paulo Costa, who comes in with a price tag of $8,900 and an APPG (average points per game) of 101.3. As one of the recommended parlay pieces, Costa is one of my most confident picks on the card for the reasons stated in the breakdown above. Costa will likely be in a lot of lineups, but he looks to be money in what is a potential mismatch of size and current standing.

Second up on the roster is Walt Harris, who comes in at a price of $8,800 and an APPG of 33.6. Despite being fresh off a last-minute loss to Fabricio Werdum, I like Harris – in what was his original matchup – to come up big here. Mark Godbeer is a hard-hitting fighter and gem of a human being, but I see Harris’ speed and southpaw stylings producing a high-scoring finish.

The next roster selection involves a fighter from my avoid list as I have Aiemann Zahabi. Despite officially siding with Ricardo Ramos, this is a close fight no matter how you cut it.

Ramos may be the more volatile finisher, but Zahabi is the more process-driven fighter, who also has a knack for scoring knockdowns and takedowns. And for the price of $8,700 (65 APPG), he will likely be an unpopular choice that can score you some surprising points.

Next up on the docket is Cody Garbrandt, who comes in with a price tag of $8,300 and an APPG of 100.3.

As stated in the breakdown above, I believe that Garbrandt has a higher propensity to find the finish over Dillashaw, whose aggressive shifting style tends to open him up for damage in both victory and defeat. Couple that with the fact that Garbrandt has dropped or stopped all of his career opponents, and I suspect that the champion could score you some serious points over a five-round affair.

In my next roster selection, I elected to go with another title fight participant in Michael Bisping.

One of my more confident picks of the card, I feel that Bisping, for the reasons stated in the breakdown above, is the livelier threat who has more going his way on paper. For me, this seems like another mismatch of size and current standing, as I see Bisping getting a stoppage to earn his price tag of $8,100.

Lastly, I have Rose Namajunas, who comes in at the low price of $7,000 (85 APPG). Even though I officially picked Jedrzejczyk to win, the betting line here feels off and inflated.

Fortunately for DraftKings players, that makes Namajunas – a live underdog and participant in a five-round fight – the lowest priced fighter on the entire roster. Jedrzejczyk’s pace and pressure will likely make the difference in this matchup, but the champion has been sat down by straight punches or taken down in her last few fights. Even if Namajunas comes up short on the scorecards, she will likely rack up more points than any other loser on the roster and may be worth a shot.

[New York Knight]

All 24 fighters made weight without issue.

Of course ... NEVER FAILS


The UFC organization was notified today that the U.S. Anti-Doping Agency (USADA) has informed Ion Cutelaba of a potential Anti-Doping Policy violation stemming from its investigation into voluntary disclosures by Cutelaba during an out-of-competition sample collections on October 18 and October 19, 2017.


USADA has provisionally suspended Cutelaba and his fight against Michal Oleksiejczuk has been cancelled from the November 4, 2017, UFC 217 fight card.

[New York Knight]

UFC 217 Underdog Picks | DraftKings Fantasy MMA
Stephie Haynes



Cody Garbrandt $8,300 / TJ Dillashaw $7,900

Cody Garbrandt is a fantastic boxer, there’s no two ways around it. Before he joined Team Alpha Male, he trained out of Team Strongstyle in Cleveland with Stipe Miocic and Brian Rogers under striking coach Joe Delguyd, where he refined his raw talent initially. Once he moved to TAM, he polished the rest of his game, which was showcased in his fight with Dominick Cruz, a fight he absolutely dominated. The weakest part of his skillset is his wrestling, an area Dillashaw excels in.

Dillashaw is also an accomplished striker with great footwork and once trained alongside Garbrandt at TAM. He left under a hailstorm of controversy a few years back, and these two competitors have had beef ever since. Dillashaw works angles well and also has knockout power, evidenced by six (T)KOs. He’s a strong wrestler with a great takedown game, which he’ll no doubt put into action Saturday night.

This is another instance where my gut is telling me Dillashaw might have what it takes to hand Grabrandt his first professional loss.

TJ Dillashaw via (T)KO


Stephen Thompson $8,600 / Jorge Masvidal $7,600

Stephen Thompson, the two-time title challenger to Tyron Woodley’s welterweight crown, is a tall, rangy kickboxer with an excellent striking skillset. He’s got power and great footwork, as demonstrated by seven (T)KO wins over a 16-fight professional career. The hole in his overall game is his wrestling, and his last two fights, both against Woodley, ended in lackluster decisions that didn’t see him victorious, which might prey on his confidence, especially because Masvidal and Woodley are teammates at ATT.

Masvidal has been in the sport for 14-years and has 44 professional fights under his belt. He has experienced continual evolution over the years, a feat rarely seen with longtime veterans of the sport. Masvidal has a traditional boxing style with a crisp jab and real power. His ground game is very underrated, likely because he does so well standing, so we don’t get to see it too often.

This will be a very close fight, especially because these two are so well matched, but I’ve got a feeling we’ll be seeing Masvidal spoiling Thompson’s night, as he’s done with so many others.

Jorge Masvidal via DEC


Joe Duffy $8,500 / James Vick $7,700

Joe Duffy is a great striker and submission artist. He’s got five wins by (T)KO and 10 wins via submission. He’s not an overly gifted wrestler, but once the fight is on the ground, he shines in the scrambles and is dangerous from both top and bottom position. He’ll be giving up five inches in height and three inches in reach to Vick, who will likely use that as an opportunity to land heavy kicks from the outside to soften up the Irishman for an inevitable war.

James Vick has had an impressive run in the UFC, losing only to Beneil Dariush in eight fights under the promotion’s banner. At 6’3”, he’s got the long man’s game down to a science. He’s a polished striker with a solid jab and a very good submission game of his own. He’s faced better quality competition than Duffy has, and that experience combined with his aggressive style and physical advantages should see him get the W.

James Vick via DEC


Aleksei Oleinik $8,200 / Curtis Blaydes $8,000

Aleksei Oleinik is an amazingly accomplished Ukranian grappler who has 45 submission wins over the course of a 65-fight career. Ten of those submissions are by the ultra-rare Ezekiel choke, and he actually holds the record for most Ezekiel chokes in MMA competition. Despite his sterling record, Oleinik is getting quite long in the tooth, and at the age of 40 with lots of shopwear, his cardio has begun exhibiting a serious deficit.

Curtis Blaydes will enter the Madison Square Garden Arena 14 years the junior of his opponent and with much less experience than the veteran Oleinik. That said, he packs quite a punch, having won all his fights by TKO, with the exception of a unanimous decision to Daniel Omielanczuk, who just so happens to be the last man to beat Oleinik. He’s a powerful wrestler with excellent takedowns and great cardio considering how big he is.

This is a risky pick, but I’m taking Blaydes here based on power, durability and cardio.

Curtis Blaydes via DEC

[New York Knight]

UFC 217: Preliminary Predictions
Kamikaze Overdrive



155lbs- James Vick (11-1-0) vs Joe Duffy (16-2-0)

In the headlining bout of the undercard, James “The Texicutioner” Vick goes head to head with Ireland’s own “Irish Joe” Joe Duffy. Vick has won back to back fights since suffering the first loss of his career- he scored a TKO win over Marco Polo Reyes in his last bout. Duffy is 4-1 inside the Octagon and is also riding a 2-fight winning streak, picking up wins over Mitch Clarke and Reza Madadi.

A very tall Lightweight, Vick is 6’3″ and will be 5 inches taller than Duffy to go along with a 3″ reach. Duffy is the younger fighter by a year.

Vick is developing a well-rounded attack. His striking is solid, incorporating his reach and movement to augment his ever-increasing volume game. He averages just over 4 SLpM compared to 3.38 SApM. The Texas-native is hittable and Beniel Dariush blasted him several times prior to scoring the stoppage. Vick is also a capable grappler, utilizing his long limbs to set up submissions. Unfortunately, he lacks a strong takedown to get his foe to the floor and he has been taken down on multiple occasions. Duffy struggled with the wrestling of Dustin Poirier in his only UFC loss, but he is a pretty solid grappler in his own right. On the feet, he is a smooth striker with good head movement and footwork. Leading with a sharp left jab and following with a power right, his combination striking is strong and he packs good power in his hands. Joe is coming off just his 5th career fight to go beyond the first frame- he is 3-2 in those bouts.

Vick will have the physical advantages and can operate both on the feet and the mat, but his glaring defensive issues will be his undoing. If he had a better wrestling attack, he could put Duffy on the floor, where he might have the edge. Look for “Irish Joe” to work inside the reach of Vick and outbox him, eventually cracking him on the chin

my prediction is Joe Duffy to defeat James Vick by TKO.


265lbs- Walt Harris (10-5-0) vs Mark Godbeer (12-3-0)

In a fight that was originally scheduled to take place at UFC 216, Walt “The Big Ticket” Harris looks to get back on track when he takes on Mark “The Hand of” Godbeer. Godbeer most recently defeated Daniel Spitz at UFC 209 to rebound from his debut loss to Justin Ledet. Harris stopped both Chase Sherman and Cyril Asker prior to suffering a 65-second submission loss to former Heavyweight Champion Fabricio Werdum when he stepped up to the main card at UFC 216.

At 6’5″, Harris is an inch taller than Godbeer, but they will share the same 77″ reach. They are the same age.

This fight will most likely be decided on the feet with both men packing significant power. Harris has finished all 10 of his career wins via knockout- 9 in the opening round. Not to be outdone, Godbeer has stopped his foe via knockout in 9 of his 12 wins- only 3 in the opening round. Harris has looked increasingly more comfortable with his striking offense and the results have been devastating. Godbeer is a capable striker, but he is going to struggle with the speed and athleticism of Harris.

While Harris has far more opening round finishes, he appears to have the superior cardio which will play a role if this fight goes beyond the opening. Either way, look for him to routinely beat Godbeer to the punch and land the more impactful strikes when doing so. Despite the loss to Werdum, this fight should still play out as previously expected to

my prediction is Walt Harris to defeat Mark Godbeer by knockout.


205lbs- #6 Ovince Saint Preux (21-10-0) vs #7 Corey Anderson (10-3-0)

In a battle of top 10-ranked Light Heavyweights, former title-challenger Ovince Saint Preux takes on Corey “Overtime” Anderson. OSP has won back to back fights, submitting both Yushin Okami and Marcos Rogerio de Lima by Von Flue choke. Anderson is coming off a loss to Jimi Manuwa by knockout, but he has won 4 of his last 6 fights.

Saint-Preux is stepping in to replace Patrick Cummins on roughly 2-weeks notice. Both men are 6’3″, OSP has an inch longer reach and Anderson is the younger man by 6-years.

Anderson is coming off his second knockout loss and it is becoming apparent that his chin is a clear vulnerability. Nonetheless, he is still a capable striker utilizing a lot of movement and averaging an impressive 5.01 SLpM. A former NCAA D3 wrestler, “Overtime” does a good job of mixing in his wrestling having secured 25 takedowns over his combined 6 UFC wins. While OSP has proven himself to be a crafty submission fighter from top position, he also struggled when his opposition has looked to take him down. Most notably, Glover Teixeira beat him up on the floor prior to scoring the choke. OSP is an impressive athlete and is dangerous on the feet, but his striking tends to be a little stiff and can result in him slowing down in more demanding fights.

OSP’s short notice will not help his already questionable cardio. Additionally, he has had issues with wrestling and clinch heavy fighters which is a style that Anderson has employed in previous fights. Corey needs to utilize his movement and jab to close the distance and then force Ovince to a close quarters fight to both score points and tire him out. Anderson might be able to score a top position stoppage,

but my prediction is Corey Anderson to defeat Ovince Saint Preux by decision.


170lbs- Mickey Gall (4-0-0) vs Randy Brown (9-2-0)

In the Welterweight division, CM Punk slayer Mickey Gall returns to action to take on fellow Dana White talent search recruit Randy “Rude Boy” Brown. Brown is coming off of a decision loss to Belal Muhammad and is 3-2 inside the Octagon. Gall has yet to taste defeat in his brief pro career, submitting both the aforementioned Punk and Sage Northcutt in his last 2 UFC fights.

At 6’3″, Brown is 1″ taller, but he will have a 4″ reach advantage. Gall is the younger fighter by 2-years.

Brown comes into the fight having finished 2 of his 3 UFC wins- and has stopped 8 of his 9 opponents overall. He has some decent pop in his hands and is improving his use of his reach to keep his opponent on the outside. If his opponent closes the distance, look for “Rude Boy” to clinch up and employ damaging elbow and knee strikes. A BJJ purple belt, Brown has shown a willingness to work on the mat but has also go himself in some trouble on the floor. Gall has an excellent back take and has finished all 4 of his pro opponent’s by submission, all by rear-naked choke. He can do damage with strikes from top position, but we haven’t seen a lot of his vertical striking offense.

Brown has more experience than Gall and appears to have the more well-rounded skill set. That being said, Gall’s strength is Brown’s biggest area of vulnerability. Gall’s wrestling and BJJ games should be more than enough to exploit the holes in Brown’s defensive grappling

my prediction is Mickey Gall to defeat Randy Brown by submission.


265lbs- #9 Oleksiy Oliynyk (52-10-1) vs #12 Curtis Blaydes (7-1-0 1NC)

In the Heavyweight division, rising prospect Curtis “Razor” Blaydes takes on 63-fight veteran Oleksiy “The Boa Constrictor” Oliynyk. Blaydes is on a 3-fight undefeated streak, most recently picking up a decision victory Daniel Omielanczuk. Oliynyk is coming off a submission of the fast fading Travis Browne and is an impressive 13-1 over his last 14 fights.

Blaydes is 2 inches taller and should weigh roughly 20-25 pounds heavier. They have the same 80” reach and Blaydes is the younger fighter by 14-years.

The aging Oliynyk continues to find success on the strength of his submission game. He has finished an astounding 43 opponents via some form of tap out. Averaging 3.71 takedowns per fight, he has showcased some decent wrestling in his Octagon run. Against Browne, he survived the early exchanges and capitalized on Travis’s faltering cardio prior to securing the sub. On the feet, he has decent power but tends to be a little stiff with his technique. Blaydes has good power in his hands, but he primarily focuses his attack on his wrestling. He completed 15-takedowns over his first 3 fights but is coming off a victory spent almost entirely on the feet. Once he does get the fight to the floor he can do a lot of damage with his top position strikes.

Blades is the bigger man and better athlete. If he opts to take Oliynyk down, he has the tools to muffle his submission game- but it still brings him into Oleksiy’s area of strength. Look for the American to use his wrestling in reverse to force the striking exchanges early and if he is unable to score the stoppage, he may opt to wrestle later in the bout

my prediction is Curtis Blaydes to defeat Oleksiy Oliynyk by TKO

[New York Knight]

Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for preliminary card



Joseph Duffy vs. James Vick

Anton Tabuena: Good matchup, and it should be fun either way, but I think Duffy is just overall the better fighter here.

Joe Duffy by Decision.


Ryan Davies: Like Eddie said the 6’3” frame of Vick gives lightweights a very unfamiliar look that causes problems. Vick will use his long limbs to maintain the distance on Duffy and utilize his lethal clinch and knees when it comes to close quarters. That being said Duffy is war horse and won’t go out easy, he will pick up steam in the later rounds, but not enough to sway the judges. Vick failed his first test against a top 15 striker, this will be his chance to prove he is ready for upper echelon on the division.

Vick Split Decision


Eddie Mercado: Vick is the tallest opponent that Duffy has ever faced, and I think that will present some new challenges for Irish Joe.

James Vick by Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: What a fantastic fight. Vick has quietly built a pretty scary offensive boxing game, with a mean jab, hook and fadeaway counters. He's enormous, locks up on the head in scrambles, and keeps a great pace despite being so grotesquely huge. I think his primary weakness in this fight will actually be his size, however: he struggles to keep himself covered up, and Duffy is a ferocious body puncher. The interplay between body shots from Duffy and Vick's step knee and headlock game should be fascinating, but give me

Joseph Duffy by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight so much. Duffy is game, a slick boxer and has a smooth grappling and submission game. Vick is a massive and long lightweight that can crack, and his grappling is more of an overpowering game with great submission hunting instincts. Duffy will have trouble dealing with Vick’s range and output, and I worry about how he’ll fare both in the clinch as well as off his back. The more I think about it, the worse it looks.

James Vick by TKO.


Zane Simon: Big question here is, how well can Vick lock Duffy down with his clinch game inside. If he can do that, he may force this into being a range war where he’s the longer (if still less technical) man. However, if he can’t, his unwillingness to wrestle should give Duffy the perfect opportunities to work a crafty pocket boxing game built around slick body-head combos.

Joe Duffy via TKO, Round 2.



Staff picking Duffy: Bissell, Ram, Phil, Nick, Dayne, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Zane, Tim

Staff picking Vick: Eddie, Davies, Stephie, Victor

[New York Knight]

Mark Godbeer vs. Walt Harris

Ryan Davies: Walt Harris should collect more than a participation trophy in this match up. Godbeer can take a licking and keep on ticking, but Harris will provide him a licking that he won't soon forget! That sounded a lot tougher in my head.

Harris TKO rd 2


Phil Mackenzie: The basic dynamics haven't changed since last time. Harris is still bigger, more athletic and a cleaner striker.

Walt Harris by TKO, round 1.


Eddie Mercado: WARRRRRR WALTTTTTTTT!!!!

Walt Harris by KO in round 1.


Victor Rodriguez: (Shudders) Godbeer is tough as nails, but Harris is too fast, too strong, and good an athlete to not put him away. Walt puts him on his back and ruins him after a big overhand.

Walt Harris by TKO.


Zane Simon: Godbeer loves to dip his head when he throws, Harris has a mean counter uppercut game.

Walt Harris by KO, round 1.



Staff picking Godbeer: Bissell, Ram

Staff picking Harris: Phil, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Zane, Tim

[New York Knight]

Corey Anderson vs. Ovince Saint Preux

Ryan Davies: These 2 top 10 light heavyweights are coming off of main event performances with very different outcomes. OSP defeated former title challenger Yushin Okami with his third Von Flue (soon to be St.Preux, sorry Livewire) choke. While Anderson came up short against Jimmi Manuwa. Anderson has trouble with opponents he can’t outwrestle, while OSP doesn’t have the collegiate wrestling credentials, his freak athleticism will help him avoid going to the ground. On the feet Anderson is evolving into a technically proficient striker, but OSP’s unorthodox, freewheeling style will find holes in Anderson’s striking defense to pick up another impressive knockout.

OSP TKO 2nd


Phil Mackenzie: This division is depressing. Anderson is broadly functional but lacks both power and focus. OSP is a mess. I suppose OSP makes more sense as a pick- he's beaten better opponents, and is tougher and more dynamic. But I just don't like his style. Give me jabs, leg kicks and takedowns over counterpunches and Von Flues in a pretty underwhelming fight.

Corey Anderson by unanimous decision.


Eddie Mercado: This is gon get ugly and I don’t care who wins.

OSP, I guess, by sloppy decision.


Victor Rodriguez: OSP is weird. His strikes come from strange angles, his timing is off-beat and his movement is janky. Anderson’s gonna have a hard time trying to figure him out and will undoubtedly get caught with something coming in for takedowns. Corey’s got great top control and makes smart striking choices on the ground, but if OSP ends up on top he’s far more efficient. It’s far likelier that Anderson gets to top position first, but his gas tank won’t hold up as well here. OSP will eventually get either back up to his feet or on top, and do damage from there.

Ovince St Preux by TKO.


Zane Simon: I’m just echoing Phil here. OSP’s game is basically to lose fights until he wins them, if he wins them. Anderson is much more a guy who wins fights right up until he loses them. I’ll take the guy who’s out there winning rounds over the guy who has a funky knack for weird finishes. But not happily.

Corey Anderson via decision.



Staff picking Anderson: Ram, Phil, Dayne, Fraser, Stephie, Zane

Staff picking OSP: Bissell, Nick, Davies, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Victor, Tim

[New York Knight]

Randy Brown vs. Mickey Gall

Anton Tabuena: Both have looked pretty good in their short UFC careers, and both are still likely improving a lot. It’s a tough pick, but at the end of the day, one guy has been facing far better competition.

Randy Brown by Decision.


Ryan Davies: I am in the minority that see elite potential in the polarizing prospect that is Mickey Gall. It’s true he has not taken on the stiffest of competition, but in his 3 UFC outings he has shown a effortless fluidity of movement in his grappling exchanges and a high fight IQ, staying out of brawling exchanges and fighting to his strengths. Brown is also a intriguing talent with creative and dynamic strikes, but his inability to stop a takedown has prevented him from taking the next step in his career. Gall will play it smart and get this fight to the ground whenever the opportunity presents itself. The submission may come late, but my money would be on a convincing decision.

Gall Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Gall is a talent, but really has shown next to nothing apart from being talented in his MMA career thus far because the people he's beaten are just so bad. Brown is athletic and skilled, and has just been fighting much tougher competition. Gall seems to be a natural wrestler, a skillset that continues to give Brown issues- he still seems to be in the process of finding a stable game. Brown is a good striker and reasonably dynamic everywhere, and I can't stress enough the difference between fighting Belal Remember The Name Muhammad and fighting Sage Northcutt.

Randy Brown by submission, round 3.


Fraser Coffeen: Listen, if Gall can dominate CM Punk, then realistically, who can stop him?

Mickey Gall, decision


Victor Rodriguez: Brown’s gonna have to learn early, often and hard to establish the pace here, and it just feels like Gall’s wrestling game and top pressure will be too much. Mickey hits him with the flypaper approach and tries to chain submissions together, but wins the fight via control and ground strikes leading to unsuccessful submission attempts.

Mickey Gall by decision.


Zane Simon: If Brown makes it deep into round 2, he likely wins this fight. Gall is a terribly wooden striker and looked like he was sucking air pretty badly against Northcutt when he dropped him. He is, however, also a fantastically technical wrestle-grappler who chains his shots well and does a great job in the ride and taking the back. I can just see Brown getting taken down early too easily and submitted as he tries to scramble. Still, if he survives, he probably wins.

Mickey Gall via submission, Round 1.



Staff picking Brown: Phil, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton

Staff picking Gall: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Davies, Fraser, Stephie, Vick, Zane, Tim

[New York Knight]

Curtis Blaydes vs. Oleksiy Oliynyk

Ryan Davies: This match up of high level grapplers will be a passing of the guard of sorts. 26 year old Blaydes will not throw anything at the 40 year old Oliynyk that he has not seen before. However Blaydes does posses the power, explosiveness and stamina to take over this fight with his wrestling while avoiding Oliynyk’s unconventional choke attempts.

Blaydes Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Blaydes is clearly not learning striking as fast as people hoped, and he looked dreadfully wooden on the feet in his last fight. However, I'm not a big believer in Oliynyk's gas tank, and if Blaydes doesn't walk his way into a weird choke from bottom, then his youth and athleticism just wears Oliynyk down over time. I think he'll be cautious, but will essentially look to replicate what Omielańczuk did.

Curtis Blaydes by unanimous decision.


Victor Rodriguez: Yeah, I don’t like this. Blaydes can hurt people, man. Oliynyk ate a lot of damage to rally back against Browne, and is a super legit threat no matter what position he’s in. I just don’t think he’ll make it long as a damage sponge with Blaydes being a harder hitter with really good wrestling. This is basically shades of Godbeer/Harris, only Oliynyk has more tools to win and is a smarter fighter. That said, I still don’t like the odds for Oliynyk here.

Curtis Blaydes by TKO, round 2.


Zane Simon: Sure, Blaydes could jump on top of Oliynyk and get himself choked in that way that only Oliynyk opponents seem to get themselves choked, but my guess is that he’s just too much of a physical hulk for that. I feel like Blaydes may have broken his wrestling game a little in learning how to strike, so I think this will just be 3 rounds of wall-n-maul, as Oliynyk wears out quickly and Blaydes stifles him.

Curtis Blaydes by decision.



Staff picking Blaydes: Phil, Nick, Davies, Mookie, Anton, Stephie, Victor, Zane

Staff picking Oliynyk: Bissell, Ram, Dayne, Eddie, Fraser, Tim

[New York Knight]

Ricardo Ramos vs. Aiemann Zahabi

Anton Tabuena: Unfortunately, this might be the only time Firas celebrates tonight.

Aiemann Zahabi by decision.


Ryan Davies: Both of these highly regarded prospects eked out controversial decisions in their debuts. Now they will look to pick up their second win in a more impressive manor. Zahabi, like the majority of Tri Star fighters,is a master of controlling the distance in the striking department. Ramos has shown flashes of brilliance on the feet, but Zahbi will have a noticeable technical striking edge. Ramos does his best work on the mat, however getting Zahabi down will be a bridge too far for the lanky 22 year old. Even if it does go to the ground Aiemann’s many years of coaching up from big brother Firas will have him more than ready to deal with the youngsters submission attempts.

Zahabi Unanimous Decision


Phil Mackenzie: Zahabi feels like a fighter who is incredibly well-coached but is already visibly bumping up against the limits of his athleticism, which don't appear to be very high. He hurt Vieira in his last fight by being better at drawing the shorter line between two points with his punches, but he also got hit quite a lot. Ramos is bigger, and the less technical but the more impactful striker, and is an aggressive, powerful grappler.

Ricardo Ramos by unanimous decision


Victor Rodriguez: I love this fight so much. Zahabi’s been training with top-level guys for years now and his brother’s a genius coach. Ramos is tough and probably a more complete athlete, but Zahabi has more tools to win.

Aiemann Zahabi by decision.


Zane Simon: Zahabi’s defensive instincts don’t seem very sound yet. Which means he has to rely on consistent pressuring or risk getting overwhelmed by his opponent’s offense. That leads nicely into Ramos’ dynamic countering game.

Ricardo Ramos by TKO, Round 2.



Staff picking Ramos: Dayne, Phil, Zane

Staff picking Zahabi: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Davies, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Tim

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Bloody Elbow staff picks and predictions for main card



Michael Bisping vs. Georges St-Pierre

Anton Tabuena: So St-Pierre has been training every day since his layoff, thinks he’s the “best” GSP ever, and wouldn’t come back if he wasn’t. He says he has kept up with the sport and even actually had time to improve instead of just getting in fight shape and competing constantly. I really wish that was all true, but it’s just not logical to believe all that without any evidence. Ring rust is real, and 4 years away from the sport is going to be a real hurdle, especially in the opening rounds. St-Pierre is now 36-years-old, and I find it hard to believe that his timing won’t be affected, let alone his durability, endurance, explosiveness and skills.

If he does come back as the same guy (or even slightly better, which I highly doubt), stylistically, Bisping is also a very bad matcup for him. He’s much bigger, hard to take down, and even harder to keep down. He conceivably also has better striking and endurance than St-Pierre. If GSP can’t dictate where this fight takes place, or at least constantly have a legitimate takedown threat that disrupts Bisping’s striking game, his game will be more limited and he will struggle. For him to win, St-Pierre will not only have to beat a bigger and stronger guy who has the style to give him a lot of issues, he will also have to quickly shake off the rust and beat father time as well. I would love to see that storybook type of comeback, and I wish he proves me wrong to get back on top of the sport as a two-division champion. But MMA is unforgiving, and I expect a lot of people to once again be sad that their hero got old.

Michael Bisping by TKO.


Mookie Alexander: Full disclosure - I spent all of Thursday traveling cross-country, so I’m pretty tired and this will be my only predictions contribution for the week. Georges St-Pierre hasn’t fought since 2013. He tore his ACL the very next year. I cannot imagine a rational thinking person trying to argue GSP is going to be “better than ever” or whatever nonsense tagline has been used to promote the fight. Michael Bisping is older than GSP but he’s both an actual middleweight and has fought eight times since GSP’s last bout. Frankly speaking, even if Bisping knocks GSP out cold in 5 seconds, I value his Rockhold KO over both the Anderson Silva win and if he were to beat St-Pierre. Skillwise, GSP is miles ahead of Bisping, but I just cannot convince myself that he won’t look like a shell of his former self, and that’s what it boils down to. There’s also a part of me that doesn’t want GSP to win because I absolutely do not want to see him get murked by Robert Wittaker. This fight might end up being a tad disappointing in terms of excitement, but I’ve been wrong many many times before.

Michael Bisping by unanimous decision.


Ryan Davies: Tim Kennedy laid out the blueprint to beating Bisping and GSP mixes up his strikes and takedowns far better than Kennedy. If GSP is 80 percent of the fighter that retired in 2013 he will keep Bisping guessing and place him on the mat numerous times.

GSP Unanimous Decision


Eddie Mercado: Bisping won a BS decision over Anderson Silva. He won a BS decision over Dan Henderson. Why should I expect anything other than a BS decision over another MMA great? GSP will win the fight but lose the MMA match. Is paper GOAT a thing? Michael Bisping by BS decision. Actually, I just can’t do it. I refuse to pick Bisping over GSP.

GSP by Unanimous Decision!


Fraser Coffeen: In anticipation of this fight, I watched every Michael Bisping fight. Yep, all of them. And even with all that video, he’s a tough fighter to pin down. As Ryan mentioned above, the Kennedy fight is a real concern for any Bisping fans here - that’s a performance that GSP could very much emulate in this fight. The questions is just one of where GSP is these days. I think a prime GSP scores the takedowns and wins this, despite the size difference. But I’m still feeling the sting of last weekend’s Lyoto fight. Things like that and Bisping/Silva are good reminders that time is a serious factor and the guy fighting past his prime is not the same as he once was.

And so, sadly, Bisping, decision


Ram Gilboa: Michael Bisping vs Georges St. Pierre. True, if they met in 2013, you had to wonder what’s the point. But now, 4 years later, magically, you don’t seem to care enough about this fight to do that.

Georges St. Pierre is an all-time great. Best of all-time when he took a break four years ago, and now trailing after Johnson, if you ask me. I probably wouldn’t have advised him to come back now; but if he wants to, who am I to say something anyway. But it is almost obvious who St. Pierre should get, right? Especially since this can be a one-off: Anyone except Michael Bisping. It could have been Anderson Silva, for us nostalgic folks, or Nick Diaz - hell, A Diaz. If GSP plans to stick around, I can even see reason in squaring up again against Hendricks, and play on the different trajectories they went on since then. Even McGregor would have even been reasonable, at least our age kind of reasonable.

So they gave him Bisping. Yeah, I don’t know. It probably comes down to, as mentioned, the current shape GSP is in. The timing on his doubles has always been impeccable, and I think he’ll get that timing back in the cage soon enough. But to finish the shots his fast-twitch muscles will still have to perform well enough, and his knees will still have to sustain the motion long enough, and through Bisping’s resistance and weight. And that’s the second thing - against bigger opponents, Wrestling is probably the most difficult per pound-against; more than striking, where you can use much more movement, or grappling, where you can use the ground more, and a little more savvy. So to wrestle a bigger fella constantly for 5 rounds - when was the last time GSP finished a fight? - should prove extremely taxing on his stamina. I think GSP will keep this one standing a lot more than a lot of people think; while keeping the takedown threat implied, for as long as he can, to get Bisping’s hands a bit down, and him a bit thinking. And while Bisping will think, as Hemingway wrote, GSP will hit him. (Hemingway didn’t specifically mention GSP). I don’t see wrestling and ground and pound as the main game-plan for St. Pierre for the first two rounds at-least. As for Bisping, he pretty much got here by out-lasting and out-hustling, not out-gunning. He’s the last man standing from the old guard, and when the dust settled, he had a belt wrapped around his waist. But I think no more after tomorrow night.

Georges St. Pierre by a close decision.


Victor Rodriguez: I love both fighters, but the fact that they’re facing each other is utter garbage. GSP spends four years on the shelf to cut the line in a division he never fought in? If he at least came back to fight Woodley for the belt he never lost, I’d be a lot less sour about this. Meh. I can’t count on a guy that hasn’t been fighting during that time. I get that he’s never stopped training seriously, but Bisping’s only gotten better with time. He can shuck off takedowns, overpower with pressure and his counter game and stun Georges with an uppercut or two. GSP still presents some problems with his speed and athleticism, but will be undersized and can be outboxed. Bisping is still hittable, and might fall for GSP’s shenanigans and eat a high kick. Still gotta go with the more reliable fighter here.

Michael Bisping by decision.


Zane Simon: As many others have said, I just can’t trust where GSP is at. Especially can’t trust that he’ll have the cardio at 185 to hit takedowns for 5 rounds on a bigger fighter.

Michael Bisping by decision.



Staff picking Bisping: Anton, Bissell, Fraser, Mookie, Stephie, Victor, Zane

Staff picking GSP: Ram, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Davies, Phil, Tim

[New York Knight]

Cody Garbrandt vs. T.J. Dillashaw

Anton Tabuena: Even if we ignore the team drama that surrounds this contest, this is still a really intriguing match up stylistically. On paper, it seems like Garbrandt is faster, has better hands and bigger power, while Dillashaw has more diversity, better footwork, better kicks, and possibly a better judge of distance as well. To add to those clash in styles, both men are very familiar with what each other brings to the table, making it a possible x-factor that bridges the gap in some of these advantages. All in all, those things make this a bout that really piques my interest.

Cruz is a master of footwork, movement and distance, and Garbrandt passed that test with flying colors. TJ is more dangerous offensively than Cruz, but this makes me believe that when others struggle with TJ’s “unorthodox” style and movement, Cody wouldn’t -- especially with the familiarity they have. Couple that with a speed and power advantage, this is why I am leaning towards the champ keeping his belt. I definitely could be wrong, and x-factors like emotion and knowing each other’s tendencies could swing it either way, but I think it will be

Cody Garbrandt by TKO.


Ryan Davies: T.J is the superior striker. Superior footwork, superior timing and superior fight IQ. Garbrandt will get frustrated early when he doesn’t land clean and headhunt the rest of the fight losing every round.

Dillashaw Unanimous Decision


Eddie Mercado: Garbrandt’s recent surgery could be a thing here, but until I see him lose, I can’t really pick against him.

Cody Garbrandt by unanimous decision.


Fraser Coffeen: Great fight here with so much to love about it. I’m a big fan of TJ’s style in there - it’s a style I tend to favor, while Cody seems more of the pure KO artist. Those KO type fighters are always a bit tough to predict in my eyes. Like the first Chuck/Randy fight, it feels like there’s always a path to beating this style of fighter if you can find it. My gut instinct is that Dillashaw can indeed find it, using his movement, volume, and game planning to score the points. What holds me back somewhat is that I could have written that exact same sentence about Dominick Cruz, and he did not find any success. So what does Dillashaw have that Cruz doesn’t? Answer: the knowledge of Garbrandt and the drive. Is that enough to turn the tide? I’m going to say it is.

TJ Dillashaw, decision


Ram Gilboa: It’s a five rounds fight, that’ll play out on the feet. Two very good strikers, I’ll go with the puncher.

Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 2


Victor Rodriguez: I know that MMAth is for suckers and rubes, but if Cruz couldn’t hurt Cody consistently, how can TJ? Garbrandt not only showed off his boxing skills, but his wrestling was on point and his attacks on the ground were good. We might see Dillashaw on his back eating a few elbows, which would be impressive. I’m not sure that TJ has the answers in his toolkit to deal with the range, length, pressure, and counters that Garbrandt has. The king stays king.

Cody Garbrandt by TKO, round 5.


Zane Simon: Garbrandt can match Dillashaw for speed and footwork, and should be able to scramble with him on the mat. Dillashaw holds the edge in volume striking, but Garbrandt is more capable fighting going forwards and backwards, while Dillashaw has trouble off his back foot. If Dillashaw has to keep coming forward, then he likely has to keep giving Garbrandt chances to counter him and land the better shots each round.

Cody Garbrandt by decision.



Staff picking Garbrandt: Bissell, Ram, Nick, Dayne, Eddie, Mookie, Anton, Stephie, Phil, Victor, Zane, Tim

Staff picking Dillashaw: Davies, Fraser