Saturday 11-11-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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NCAAF opening line report: Week 11 betting opens with massive line move
Patrick Everson

“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites.”

It’s the final month of college football’s regular season, and the push for the big prize – a spot in the four-team College Football Playoff – is getting turned on its head with each passing week. Everson checks in on the opening lines and early action for four key Week 11 matchups, with insights from Dave Mason, brand manager for offshore sportsbook BetOnline.ag.

No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs at No. 10 Auburn Tigers (-2)

Georgia is No. 2 in the polls, but No. 1 where it really matters – in the prestigious CFP ranking. The Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) remained on a collision course with Alabama for the SEC title by dispatching South Carolina 24-10 on Saturday, though they fell way short of cashing as 23.5-point chalk.

Auburn (7-2 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) could certainly upset Georgia’s apple cart this week. The Tigers’ two losses this season weren’t bad ones by any means – at Clemson and at Louisiana State – and they’ve won and covered on the road in their last two games. On Saturday at Texas A&M, Auburn won 42-27 as a 14.5-point favorite.

“Early bettors got some great value, as top-ranked Georgia quickly moved from small ‘dogs to 2.5-point favorites,” Mason said. “Georgia is by far the most popular bet on the entire betting board so far, with 93 percent of early bettors on the Dawgs. Even with the line move, bettors are still pounding Georgia and are counting on them to cover and beat Auburn for the sixth time in the last seven years.”

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 6 Miami Hurricanes (+1.5)

Notre Dame found itself at No. 3 in the initial CFP ranking released last Tuesday, after eye-catching victories over Southern California and North Carolina State. The Fighting Irish (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) kept rolling in Week 10, topping Wake Forest 48-37 as a 15.5-point home fave.

Miami is undefeated and trying to make its way into the CFP. The Hurricanes (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS) certainly helped their cause in Week 10 by rolling over Virginia Tech 28-10 laying 2 points at home.

“Outside of Georgia-Auburn, no other game is getting as much early action as this top-10 showdown,” Mason said. “The Irish have been very generous to their loyal bettors this season, racking up a 7-2 record against the spread. The public will be counting on another Notre Dame cover – just 30 percent of the early tickets are on Miami.”

BetOnline.ag opened Notre Dame -1.5 and saw some upward movement, even getting to 4 momentarily, before dialing back to 2.5 and settling at 3 late Sunday night.

No. 9 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners (-8)

If the Big 12 is to be represented in the CFP, one of these two teams will be doing said representing, and Oklahoma surely has the offensive firepower. On Saturday, the Sooners (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) hung a 62-burger on Bedlam rival Oklahoma State, holding on for a defensively challenged 62-52 victory as a 1-point road pup.

Texas Christian is also 8-1 SU and 5-4 ATS, and its lone loss was to Iowa State, just like Oklahoma. The Horned Frogs stubbed their collective toe in Week 9, but bounced back in Week 10 with a 24-7 home win over Texas giving 7.5 points.

“Dating back to last season, Oklahoma has been a covering machine in front of its home crowd, compiling an 8-1 record against the spread over their last 9 (home) games,” Mason said. “Despite this lopsided trend, 63 percent of early bettors hit TCU and the points. However, I believe the action will be pretty even come kickoff.”

No. 8 Washington Huskies at Stanford Cardinal (+5.5)

The Pac-12 is fading like a pair of 20-year-old jeans, with Washington – which made it to the CFP a season ago – the last best hope to reach the playoff this season. The Huskies (8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS) plastered Oregon 38-3 in Week 10, easily covering as a 17.5-point road chalk.

Stanford already has three losses on its resume, something even Heisman Trophy candidate Bryce Love can’t mask. The Cardinal (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) went to Washington State on Saturday as a 1.5-point favorite and left with a 24-21 outright loss, halting a five-game SU win streak.

“The Huskies have been on a covering tear recently, going 5-1 ATS over their last six games. Stanford, on the other hand, only covered the number once in its last five games,” Mason said. “The early bettors are split 50/50 on this one, although there hasn’t been too much early action. By comparison, there are more than three times the bets on Georgia alone than Washington and Stanford combined. Despite the lack of early action, Washington quickly moved to 7-point chalk.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College football's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11
Monty Andrews

Virginia Tech isn't messing around in the pass defense department, allowing a minuscule 177.8 passing yards per game.

Florida State Seminoles at Clemson Tigers (-16, 46)

Florida State's O-line troubles vs. Clemson's top-flight pass rush

Clemson looks to continue its surge toward the College Football Playoff as it hosts lowly Florida State on Saturday afternoon. The Tigers outlasted a game NC State Wolfpack team last weekend, escaping with a 38-31 road victory. The Seminoles are also coming off a victory - edging Syracuse 27-24 - but are one of just a handful of FBS teams that has failed to cover a spread this season (0-6-2 ATS). Clemson has a significant edge in this one, particularly when Florida State has the football.

The Seminoles' quarterbacks have had a rough go of it this season, with James Blackman and Deondre Francois combining for nine touchdown passes and nine interceptions through eight games. Part of the problem has been a leaky Florida State offensive line that has surrendered a whopping 25 sacks - an average of 3.13 per game, ahead of only nine NFL teams. The O-line struggles have also played a role in the Seminoles ranking 90th in the nation in rushing yards per contest (143.8).

Florida State's beleaguered line might be facing its biggest test of the season Saturday against a Clemson pass rush that has made bettors smile - and opposing teams cringe. The Tigers' 33 sacks on the season rank second behind only USC, while their 3.67 sacks per game put them slightly behind NCAA-leading Arkansas State (3.71). Florida State could be in for a long afternoon if it can't figure out a way to slow a Clemson D-line that has the Tigers on the path to a CFP berth.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Iowa State Cyclones (+6.5, 61.5)

Oklahoma State's turnover troubles vs. ISU's elite thievery

Bedlam took on a life of its own this past weekend, as the Cowboys and Oklahoma combined to score an absurd 114 points in a game the Sooners eventually won 62-52. The Cowboys' ransacked defense will look to recover this Saturday against an Iowa State team that saw its four-game winning streak halted with a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. But the Cyclones could make this a closer game than expected if they can exploit their advantage in securing - and preventing - turnovers.

The Cowboys need to take better care of the ball if they have any hope of playing in a marquee bowl game this December. Oklahoma State lost the turnover battle 3-2 against rival Oklahoma and has coughed up the ball 19 times through its first nine games; only 12 Division I teams have been worse at hanging onto the football. The Sooners are one of 14 FBS teams to have lost 10 or more fumbles, and QB Mason Rudolph has thrown three interceptions over his past two games.

That trend could very well continue this weekend, with Iowa State among the league's best at forcing turnovers. The Cyclones have recovered seven fumbles and snagged 11 interceptions through eight games, giving them a total of 18 takeaways - just outside the top 20 nationally. Three of those came in a stunning 14-7 win over then-No. 4 TCU two weekends ago, a victory that put Iowa State in the elite bowl picture. Look for a similar performance this weekend against a Cowboys team susceptible to turnovers.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3, 50.5)

VT's vaunted pass defense vs. GT's anemic air assault

The Hokies met their match this past weekend, getting throttled 28-10 by a Miami Hurricanes team that all but secured a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia Tech will look to bounce back against a Georgia Teach roster that fell to 0-4 on the road with a 40-36 setback at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets have been a completely opposite team in their own stadium - boasting a flawless 4-0 home record - but that could be in jeopardy if they can't overcome a significant mismatch in the passing game.

Virginia Tech isn't messing around in the pass defense department, allowing a minuscule 177.8 passing yards per game - tied with UTSA for the 13th-lowest mark in Division I. The Hokies have forced more than their share of bad passes; opponents are completing just 45.2 percent of their total attempts, the lowest mark in the nation. In consecutive wins over Boston College, North Carolina and Duke, Virginia Tech limited opposing quarterbacks to 391 total yards on 32-of-79 passing.

Georgia Tech is known primarily for an incredibly run-heavy attack, but with the Hokies boasting a top-20 run defense that has allowed just four rushing scores all season, the Yellow Jackets will need to do something through the air. And that could be a problem: Georgia Tech has completed fewer than 40 percent of its passes on the season, ahead of only Army in all of Division I. Look for the Yellow Jackets offense to struggle in all areas this weekend - particularly in the passing department.

Michigan Wolverines at Maryland Terrapins (+15.5, 46.5)

Michigan's third-down dominance vs. Terrapins' drive-extension troubles

The Wolverines appear to have righted the ship following a disheartening loss to rival Penn State, reeling off consecutive blowout victories over Rutgers and Minnesota. With a pivotal game against hated Ohio State on the horizon, Michigan will look to build even more momentum this weekend in Maryland. The Terrapins have been one of the worst defensive teams in the nation, and haven't done themselves any favors by struggling to sustain drives on offense.

Michigan gets things done with a stout defense that ranks among the Division I leaders in a number of categories - including third-down defense. Only Syracuse and Washington State have been better at forcing punts when facing third-down situations than the Wolverines, who have limited opponents to a 24.4-percent success rate. The Scarlet Knights and Golden Gophers combined to make good on just seven of their 24 third-down opportunities in their respective losses to Michigan.

Third-down success has been elusive for the Terrapins in 2017 - and while that might not be the primary reason for Maryland's defense spending so much time on the field, it's certainly a contributing factor. Maryland comes into the weekend having extended drives or scored points on just 32.2 percent of their third-down situations - ranking it 115th in the nation. The chances of that success rate rising this weekend isn't good - and that could result in even more time on the gridiron for the Terrapins' weary D.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's Week 11 NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds


(15) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (23) Iowa State Cyclones (+6.5, 60.5)

* The Cowboys rank second in the nation in points per game (45.2) and total touchdowns (53). Oklahoma State turned the ball over three times in Saturday's loss to Oklahoma and has 19 turnovers on the season; only 12 Division I schools have more.

* Cyclones QB Kyle Kempt has racked up 1,108 passing yards with 10 touchdowns and three interceptions since taking over as the starter. Only six FBS programs average fewer penalty yards per game than Iowa State (35.7).

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened this game at most books as 7-point road fave and has been bet down slightly to +6.5. The total hit the betting board at 62 and is available as low as 60.5.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.

* Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

* Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.

(24) NC State Wolfpack at Boston College Eagles (+3, 52)

* The Wolfpack have turned the ball just minuscule six times through nine games; only Alabama has fewer turnovers among Division I schools. NC State QB Ryan Finley has thrown for multiple touchdowns just four times in nine starts.

* The Eagles have surrendered seven sacks on the season, sixth-fewest in the nation. RB AJ Dillon has erupted for 460 rushing yards and five touchdowns over his previous three games, all Boston College victories.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers installed the Wolfpack as field goal road faves and the line has yet to move off that number. The total opened at 52 and was briefly bet up to 53 but has since returned to the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

* Under is 9-1 in Wolfpack last 10 conference games.

* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

* Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Boston College.

(16) Michigan State Spartans at (11) Ohio State Buckeyes (-17, 53.5)

* The Spartans rank third in rushing defense (87 yards per game) and are one of only six Division I teams allowing fewer than three yards per carry. QB Brian Lewerke and RBs LJ Scott and Madre London have accounted for all 10 Michigan State rushing TDs.

* Buckeyes QB J.T. Barrett threw a career-high four interceptions in last week's loss to Iowa; it was his first game with multiple INTs since last year's Fiesta Bowl loss to Clemson. Ohio State averages 77.2 penalty yards per game, sixth-most in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: Ohio State hit the betting board as 16-point home chalk, money on the road team brought that line as low as -14.5 early in the week. Later in the week money started to come in on the home team and the line bounced back as high as -17, where it currently sits. The total opened at 55 and has been bet down to 53.5.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 road games.

* Over is 7-0 in Buckeyes last 7 conference games.

* Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (13) Penn State Nittany Lions (-31, 52.5)

* Scarlet Knights passers have completed just 52.4 percent of their attempts, good for 115th nationally. WR Jerome Washington (253) is the only Rutgers pass catcher with more than 170 yards through the air; no player has more than one receiving TD.

* Nittany Lions RB and Heisman Trophy candidate Saquon Barkley has exceeded 75 rushing yards just once in his last five games. Penn State's plus-12 turnover margin for the season is the fourth-best rate in Division I.

LINE HISTORY: The Nittany Lions opened as massive 31-point home faves, that was briefly bet down to 30.5 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the board at 52.5 and was bet down slightly to an even 52.

TRENDS:

* Scarlet Knights are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

* Nittany Lions are 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss.

* Over is 4-1 in Scarlet Knights last 5 games overall.

* Over is 6-1 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a straight up loss.

Arkansas Razorbacks at (25) LSU Tigers (-17.5, 55)

* The Razorbacks are allowing opponents to convert 46.2 percent of their third-down opportunities, ranking 117th among FBS teams. Arkansas has surrendered 28 sacks while generating just 12 of its own.

* Coming off a 276-yard breakout vs. Ole Miss, Tigers RB Derrius Guice settled for 71 rushing yards against Alabama and has reached triple digits just once in his last six games. LSU is one of eight Division I schools with 30 or more sacks.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Tigers as 19-point home favorites and money on the road team has seen that number drop as low as -16.5, before settling at -17. The total opened at 55 and was briefly bet up as high as 56 before settling back to the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Over is 6-1 in Razorbacks last 7 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Louisiana State.

* Razorbacks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Connecticut Huskies at (12) Central Florida Knights (40.5, 64)

* The Huskies rank last in the nation in passing yards against (3,407) and passing yards allowed per game (378.6). QB Bryant Shirreffs has thrown for a combined 335 yards in his past two games after surpassing the 300-yard mark in four of his previous five.

* The Knights complete better than 71 percent of their passes, behind only Oklahoma. UCF has been flagged an average of 8.75 times per game so far in 2017; only South Florida has been penalized more often.

LINE HISTORY: The Knights opened as 37 point home chalk and money on the home team drove that line as high as 41, before fading slightly to -40.5. The total hit the betting board at 64.5 and is down slightly to an even 64.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

* Knights are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

* Under is 4-0 in Huskies last 4 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Knights last 6 games following a ATS loss.

(17) Virginia Tech Hokies at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+3, 50)

* The Hokies have limited opponents to a 24.8-percent conversion rate on third downs, fourth-best in the nation. Virginia Tech QB Josh Jackson hasn't exceeded 200 passing yards in his previous three games.

* The Yellow Jackets average better than 34 1/2 minutes time of possession per game, the third-best rate in Division I. Georgia Tech incurs just 30.75 penalty yards per game, behind only Boston College among FBS teams.

LINE HISTORY: Virginia Tech opened this ACC Coastal division matchup as 2.5-point road chalk and money on the Hokies pushed that line to +3, where it currently sits. The total hit the betting board at 50 and briefly went up to 50.5 before returning to the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Yellow Jackets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 conference games.

* Under is 5-1 in Hokies last 6 games overall.

* Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

* Underdog is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

Iowa Hawkeyes at (3) Wisconsin Badgers (-12, 46)

* Hawkeyes QB Nathan Stanley had five touchdown passes in last week's win over Ohio State - equaling his output from the previous four games combined. Iowa has converted 74.3 percent of its red-zone trips into points, ranking 112th nationally.

* Badgers RB Jonathan Taylor has exceeded 180 yards rushing in three of his last five games, scoring five touchdowns over that span. Wisconsin boasts the country's top third-down conversion rate at 53.5 percent.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Badgers as 13-point home favorites and money on the road team brought that number down to 12. The total opened at 46 and has yet to move off the opening number.

TRENDS:

* Hawkeyes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Wisconsin.

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Wisconsin.

* Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings.

Florida State Seminoles at (4) Clemson Tigers (-16, 46)

* The Seminoles have converted just 31.2 percent of their third-down opportunities so far in 2017, ranking 118th in Division I. The Florida State defense has surrendered an average of 3.13 sacks per game, more than all but nine FBS teams.

* Five different Tigers players have at least three rushing touchdowns on the season, led by QB Kelly Bryant with nine. Clemson ranks second in both total sacks (33) and sacks per game (3.67).

LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened this ACC showdown favored by 17.5 points at most books, money on FSU has brought that line down to -16. The total opened at 46, briefly went up to 46.5, before returning to 46.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

* Under is 7-1 in Seminoles last 8 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games overall.

* Seminoles are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Clemson.

(2) Georgia Bulldogs at (10) Auburn Tigers (+2.5, 47)

* The Bulldogs boast the top red-zone offense in the nation, having scored on 35 of 36 trips inside the opponents' 20-yard line (25 touchdowns, 10 field goals). RB Nick Chubb leads the SEC with 16 rushes of 15+ yards this season.

* The Tigers have thrown just three interceptions - only four Division I schools have fewer - but have surrendered an average of 2.67 sacks per game, ranking 100th nationally. Auburn's 36.3 penalty yards per game are the 11th-fewest among FBS schools.

LINE HISTORY: The second-ranked Bulldogs opened this game at most books as 2-point road chalk and money coming in on Georgia has seen that line up slightly to +2.5. The total opened as 51.5 and money has been flooding in on the underdriving it down to 47 at most shops.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.

* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

* Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

(22) Michigan Wolverines at Maryland Terrapins (+17, 45.5)

* Wolverines RB Karan Higdon has erupted for 603 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in his last four games, with a pair of 200-yard efforts in that span. Michigan ranks third nationally in third-down conversion rate against (24.4 percent).

* Terrapins QB Max Bortenschlager (1,007 passing yards, 10 TDs, five INTs) is considered a game-time decision due to injury. RB Ty Johnson opened the season with three 100-yard rushing efforts in his first four games but hasn't had one since.

LINE HISTORY: The Wolverines opened as 15.5 point road chalk and that wasn't high enough as money came in on the road team pushing that number as high as 17 at most shops. The total opened at 46.5 and is down one point to 45.5.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

* Over is 10-2 in Wolverines last 12 road games.

* Over is 6-0 in Terrapins last 6 conference games.

(14) USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (12.5, 64.5)

* The Trojans have allowed opponents to score on just 70.3 percent of their red-zone visits, the fifth-best rate in Division I. RB Ronald Jones has rushed for 410 yards and five touchdowns over his past two games.

* Buffaloes RB Phillip Lindsay is tied for second in the Pac-12 in rushing scores (12) and ranks third in rushing yards per game (133.4). Colorado is surrendering 199.3 rushing yards per game, ranking outside the top 100 nationally.

LINE HISTORY: The Trojans opened this Pac-12 South showdown as 13.5-road faves and money coming in on the home team has brought that line down a full point to +12.5. The total hit the betting board at 60.5 and money rolling in on the over has pushed that number as high as 64.5, where it currently sits at most shops.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.

* Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 games overall.

* Over is 4-1 in Buffaloes last 5 games overall.

* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

(20) Washington State Cougars at Utah Utes (+1, 52)

* Cougars QB Luke Falk threw for 300 yards and three TDs in last week's win over Stanford, the first time he has reached the 300-yard/3-TD plateau in the same game since Sept. 23 vs. Nevada. Washington State ranks first in pass play percentage (68.8).

* The Utes led the Pac-12 with 43 sacks last season but have just 15 so far in 2017, tied for second-fewest in the conference. Utah has converted just 34.7 percent of its third downs, ranking 106th among FBS teams.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened the Cougars as 1-point road chalk at most shops and that number has yet to move off the opening number. The total opened at 52 and like the spread has yet to move.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games overall.

* Under is 6-1 in Utes last 7 games following a ATS win.

* Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

(1) Alabama Crimson Tide at (18) Mississippi State Bulldogs (+13.5, 51)

* The Crimson Tide have trailed for a two minutes, 23 seconds of the 540 minutes they have played this season. Alabama has forced a three-and-out on 44.6 percent of opponent drives in 2017; only Michigan has a higher success rate.

* The Bulldogs have seven interceptions in their past four games, with interception returns for a touchdown in each of their previous three contests. Mississippi State QB Nick Fitzgerald has four straight 100-yard rushing games, with seven TDs in that span.

LINE HISTORY: The undefeated Crimson Tide opened as 14.5 road faves at most shops and money on the home team has brought that line down to 13. The total hit the betting board at 51 and is down slightly to 50.5.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 conference games.

* Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Mississippi State.

* Under is 14-3-1 in the last 18 meetings.

(9) TCU Horned Frogs at (7) Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5, 61.5)

* The Horned Frogs have made good on 50 percent of their third-down opportunities, the sixth-best rate in the country. TCU RB Darius Anderson is averaging 6.0 YPC but hasn't reached the 100-yard mark since Sept. 23 vs. Oklahoma State.

* Sooners QB Baker Mayfield has multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, and has amassed 1,008 passing yards in his previous two road outings. Oklahoma is the only team in the nation averaging better than 600 yards of offense per game.

LINE HISTORY: The Sooners opened as 7.5 home chalk and that number was too high for bettors and money came in on the road team bringing that line down to 6.5. The total opened at 62.5 and has been bet down a full point to 61.5.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

* Under is 5-0 in Horned Frogs last 5 games overall.

* Under is 5-1 in Sooners last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.

* Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma.

* Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Oklahoma.

(5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (6) Miami Hurricanes (+3, 57.5)

* The Fighting Irish are one of seven FBS teams with a per-game turnover margin of 1.33 or better. Notre Dame QB Brandon Wimbush has accounted for three or more touchdowns in each of his previous four starts.

* The Hurricanes have converted just 31.3 percent of their third-down chances this season; only 12 Division I teams have been worse. Miami is tied for 10th nationally with 20 forced turnovers (seven recovered fumbles, 13 interceptions).

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened 'The U' as 3-point home dogs and that line briefly went up to +3.5 before returning to the opening number. The total hit the betting board at 57.5 and held for most of the week until dropping to 56.5 on Friday morning.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

* Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.

* Under is 6-0 in Hurricanes last 6 games overall.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 11

NCAAF Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Miami betting preview and odds

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Miami Hurricanes (+3, 59.5)

It's no longer the Catholics vs. the Convicts but emotion should be almost as high on Saturday night when No. 6 Miami hosts No. 5 Notre Dame on the national stage in a renewal of their storied rivalry. The Hurricanes made a statement and quieted some of their many critics last week with a resounding 28-10 victory over ACC rival and then-No. 13 Virginia Tech while the Fighting Irish continued to roll with a 48-37 triumph over Wake Forest.

It will be the first time since 1989 that both schools have been ranked in the Top 10 at the time of their meeting and, as it was in the rivalry's glory days of the 1980s, the teams are right in the thick of the national title race, with Brian Kelly's Irish sitting third in the College Football Playoff rankings and Mark Richt's Hurricanes jumping up to seventh. With the exception of a one-point loss to Georgia -- the No. 1 team in the CFP rankings -- Notre Dame has been plowing through its schedule thanks to Heisman hopeful Josh Adams and a powerful ground attack that has almost 1,000 more yards rushing this year than all of last season. Miami has taken a different path to the top, often needing clutch plays at crunch time to keep its 13-game winning streak alive -- Miami's last loss was 30-27 to Notre Dame last season -- but the Hurricanes showed against Virginia Tech that they have the offensive weapons and defensive speed and muscle to compete for the title. "We like it when we're competing in games like this, late in the year, that are that meaningful," Richt said. "It's what you hope for, it's what you work towards. It just so happens this Saturday night is going to be very meaningful to both teams."

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Notre Dame as three-point road chalk and early money coming in on the road team briefly raised the line to +3.5, before it returned to the opening number, where it currently sits. The total hit the betting board at 57.5 and money on the over drove that line as high as 60, before fading back to 59.5.

INJURY REPORT:

Notre Dame - TE Alize Mack (Probable, Concussion), DL Khalid Kareem (Probable, Knee), RB Josh Adams (Probable, Upper Body), QB Brandon Wimbush (Probable, Hand), RB Dexter Williams (Questionable, Thigh), WR Cameron Smith (Questionable, QB J.D. Carney (Questionable, Concussion).

Miami - WR Mike Harley (Questionable, Ankle), DB Dee Delaney (Questionable, Knee), DL Demetrius Jackson (Out For Season, Knee).

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Led by a bulldozing offensive front, the Irish ground attack (324.8 yards per game) is almost impossible to stop and Adams (132.3 average) has made opponents pay with his home-run ability as he has seven touchdown runs of at least 60 yards this season, although his streak of four straight games with a TD rush of over 70 yards was snapped last week against Wake Forest. "Their offensive line, probably the best in America," Richt said. "I don't think very many people would argue that. ... This is just line up and physically move people off the ball, a kick-your-tail type offensive line and great runners." The Irish defense has had its moments but can be beaten through the air, giving up 245.3 yards passing (90th in the nation) and 15 scores, a weakness that Hurricanes quarterback Malik Rosier (283 yards passing per game) and his dangerous receiving corps will look to exploit.

ABOUT MIAMI (8-0 SU, 4-4 ATS, 1-7 O/U): Adams is not the only one making a living off big plays as the Rosier-led Hurricanes have proven far more adept at producing quick-strike scores -- two of their four touchdowns were over 42 yards against Virginia Tech -- than putting together long methodical drives. But Miami may need to churn out the yardage with running back Travis Homer to keep the defense fresh and off the field as the Hurricanes, although the nation's best at racking up tackles for loss (8.8 per game), have still bent far too often against the run, surrendering 176 yards or more in the four games prior to limiting Virginia Tech to 102. Forcing the Irish into mistakes will be crucial as the Hurricanes added four more turnovers against the Hokies and they now have 20 takeaways (13 interceptions, seven fumble recoveries) to rank fourth in the nation with an average turnover margin of plus-1.38 per game (Notre Dame sits tied for fifth with 1.33).

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

* Hurricanes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. INDEP.

* Under is 6-0 in Hurricanes last 6 games overall.

* Under is 4-0 in Hurricanes last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

CONSENSUS: The road favorites from Notre Dame are picking up 63 percent of the action on the spread and Over is getting 51 percent of the totals wagers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordan

My free winner for Saturday is on the Michigan Wolverines minus the points against the Maryland Terrapins. I normally don't like laying double digits on the road, especially in conference play, but the Wolverines are going to annhilate Maryland.

Michigan, which is sitting at 4-2 in the East Division of the Big Ten, needs a win to maintain its place, just behind Michigan State and Ohio State - which play one another today in Columbus, Ohio.

Maryland, meanwhile, is in fifth place, and has stammered through a disappointing season. I know the Terps have a decent scoring offense, but it will be no match for the No. 1 defense in the conference.

Michigan allows a total of 245.3 yards per game, and will stymie the Terps on their own field.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan will continue to run the ball well. The Wolverines have run roughshod through their last two opponents (Rutgers and Minnesota) for 705 yards. And if they want to throw the ball, they'll do that at free will against a Maryland secondary that is giving up nearly 260 yards per game through the air.

The Terrapins have the worst overall defense in the league, so Michigan will capitalize on every opportunity.

Wolverines roll to the win and cover.

1* MICHIGAN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joey Juice

Gators are in a major rut and it doesn't get any better this week for them.

Florida, losers of 4 in a row, were dismantled by Missouri last Saturday 45-16 on the road, while South Carolina has won 3 of 4 as they lost to #1 Georgia last week 24-10, a respectable road loss for the Gamecocks.

A look inside the numbers tells us why we need to bet on South Carolina this week without a concern. The Gamecocks always play well in conference match ups, they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 conference games. In fact, SC is 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall. They also play well on grass as they are 3-0-2 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

For the Gators the numbers don't look so good. November is never a good month for Florida, Gators are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November. The Gators are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Bottom line is when the Gators are bad, they don't bounce back, they are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Gators continue to slide while South Carolina gets back to its winning ways.

3* SOUTH CAROLINA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

Last season Wake Forest ended a 4-game series slide versus Syracuse with the 28-9 home win and cover over the Orange.

Today at the Carrier Dome I look for the 'Cuse to nip the Demon Deacons series win streak at one.

Wake Forest is playing their second straight away from home, and it will be the fourth time in the past five weeks the Deacs are road-bound. Last weekend, Wake used a pair of late touchdowns to squeeze inside of the back-door at Notre Dame, but today they are not getting nearly as many points as they were last week against the Irish, and they are facing a Syracuse team that should be a little prickly after seeing their comeback attempt at Florida State fall just a little shy as the Orange lost for the second straight week on the road in Florida - the week before at Miami-Fla.

Syracuse has done a good job of taking care of business at home, where they have won 3 straight, including their signature win over Clemson.

In a game the oddsmakers have priced near a pick, think we are getting tremendous value with the home team.

Wake to run out of gas playing on the road yet again.

Take Syracuse.

5* SYRACUSE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tommy Brunson

I am stunned at the price on this Michigan State-Ohio State game!?!?!

How can the 7-2 Spartans be this big of an underdog?!?!?!

Is this a "trap"!?!?!?

Urban Meyer's team was sitting pretty for the national championship playoff just one week ago, but the Buckeyes not only lost at Iowa, they were humiliated! In that loss, QB Barrett was picked off 4 times, and the defense was gouged for nearly 500 yards while allowing 55 points and 5 TD passes!

The Buckeyes have to be better this weekend back at home, but are they really this many points better than a Michigan State team that has given them fits I recent meetings? I don't believe they are!

Sparty has split the last 6 series meetings straight up with Brutus Buckeye, and 4 of those 6 meetings have been decided by no more than a field goal.

Ohio State is just 1-4 against the spread at home this season, and on an overall 6-15 home spread run their last 21. Meanwhile, Michigan State has covered 7 of their last 9 against the spread as the road dog.

Again, am I missing something with this line?

Take the points with Michigan State.

3* MICHIGAN STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Eric Schroeder

I wanted to give you Michigan State, and looked at every possible way the Spartans could go into Columbus, Ohio and hang with the Ohio State Buckeyes. Couldn't stick to one reason whatsoever.

Ohio State, which took it on the chin last week, is going to take all frustration out on the Spartans and could win this one by four touchdowns. Not even joking.

Michigan State upset Penn State last week, and now it has to back that up for a showdown with the Buckeyes? A Buckeyes team that was embarrassed by Iowa last week, and wants nothing more than to flex its muscles.

Sorry, but Urban Meyer will have his troops wound up for this one, and the Buckeyes will respond, looking to avenge the setback.

Take Ohio State here.

4* OHIO STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Benton

Your Saturday freebie is the Over in the TCU-Oklahoma game.

Something has to give in Norman on Saturday night, as TCU enters with a 2-7 Over/Under mark for the year, while Oklahoma plays this game with a 6-3 Over/Under for the season.

Which way do you go?

I say sparks with fly tonight when the Horned Frogs and Sooners look to keep their playoff hopes alive and kicking.

Last year's meeting saw a combined 98-points as 2 of the last 3 Big 12 rivalry meetings between the schools have now landed Over the total.

You saw Oklahoma post 62 points in last week's Bedlam win at Oklahoma State, but you also saw them allow 52 points. The Sooners defense is pretty permissive, so figure on the Frogs finding the end-zone in this game.

3 of Okie's 4 home games this year have landed Over the total, and I suspect you can add another to the list when this game goes final.

TCU-Oklahoma Over the total.

3* TCU-OKLAHOMA OVER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Wynn

Free Play: CFB Missouri -12 Over Tennessee

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, November 11, 2017



11/11 02:30 PM PT / 5:30 PM ET

CF (169) WASHINGTON STATE VS (170) UTAH

Take: (170) UTAH

Reason: Washington (8-2) travels to Utah (5-4) to face the Utes. Both teams have winning spread records, though Utah is slightly better at 6-2-1 ATS. Utah coming off a convincing win over UCLA last week, 48-17. The win snapped a four game losing streak for the Utes. WSU is coming off a home win over Stanford, 24-21. The Cougars have lost two of their last three away games. In fact, the Cougars are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. I'm not convinced this WSU team can win consistently on the road. Meanwhile, Utah plays with lots of confidence before the home fans. Play UTAH.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Allen Sports

Saturday's Free Selection is on the Vanderbilt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take TEXAS TECH -7½ over Baylor

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Michigan/Maryland over 46 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Anthony Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: SMU Mustangs + 3 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Atlantic Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Georgia State - 6 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

#1 Sports

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Virginia Cavaliers - 12

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Football Selection Is

Minnesota -2½

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday: Take FRESNO ST -10 over Hawaii