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Thread: Thursday 11-9-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Thursday 11-9-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

    RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST
    7.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STARTER ALLOWANCE $55,000.00 PURSE

    #4 HONOR WAY
    #2 ISOTOPE
    #6 SHORT KAKES
    #1 JUMP FOR JOY

    #4 HONOR WAY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her last five outings, including "POWER RUN WINS" in both her 2nd and 5th races back. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche and Trainer Danny Gargan send her to the post ... they've hit the board with 54% of their last 80 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 ISOTOPE, the speed and pace profile leader in this field sprinting at today's "specialized distance" of 7.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in four of her last five outings overall, winning three times, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start.

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 72

    Rating: 3

    #11 MAJESTIC BOLD (ML=3/1)
    #8 AWESOME DAY (ML=5/1)
    #13 BELLISSIMA INDY (ML=6/1)


    MAJESTIC BOLD - This filly's last speed rating registered on August 27th is uppermost in last race speed figs. Asmussen moves this filly to the dirt today. Look for an improvement from the most recent race on the turf. AWESOME DAY - When Court and Morse combine forces on horses the return on investment has been terrific at +111. I am keen on that last race on October 14th at Keeneland where she ran third. Look at this pattern of improvement. 17/59/66 are the last three speed figures. BELLISSIMA INDY - Landeros rode this mount for the first time last out and comes right back today. Landeros and Calhoun perform well when they are put together. It's hard to beat a +82 ROI for a jock and conditioner. Finished off the board last out at Churchill Downs, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 6/1 makes me think she's got a chance. Can't help but like the 2nd time addition of Lasix by the trainer today. A good sign Calhoun thinks she can win.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #9 CHANNEL NINE (ML=5/1), #5 SOPHIE'S ANGEL (ML=5/1), #3 SECRET SPENDER (ML=6/1),

    CHANNEL NINE - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple months in a short distance race to be worth it at minimal odds in a sprint. When checking today's class rating, she will have to register a better speed fig than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt sprint. SOPHIE'S ANGEL - This horse hasn't been around in either of her last couple of races around the track. SECRET SPENDER - Not easy to play any runner in a short distance race if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last two months.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    #11 MAJESTIC BOLD is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    11 with [8,13]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [8,11,13] Total Cost: $6

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    [8,11,13] with [8,11,13] with [6,8,11,13,14] with [6,8,11,13,14] Total Cost: $36

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 84

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE OCTOBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 4 TALE OF A SONG 9/5

    # 2 DETTIFOSS 7/2

    # 6 THIRTY PERCENT 12/1

    TALE OF A SONG is my choice. With Cruz getting the mount, watch out for this horse. He looks very good in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. Is a solid choice - given the 84 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. DETTIFOSS - Has been running soundly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Has very strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. THIRTY PERCENT - Is a definite contender - given the 74 Equibase speed fig from his most recent race.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Gate Fields

    Golden Gate Fields - Race 1

    $1 Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 min) $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $0.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-2-3-4-5)


    Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 69 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 12:45
    FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SWEET LOUISA is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SWEET LOUISA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BLISSFUL ROSE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
    5
    SWEET LOUISA
    8/5

    3/2
    3
    BLISSFUL ROSE
    2/1

    9/2

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Gulfstream Park West - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 81

    Rating: 4

    #6 OSCURA (ML=8/1)
    #3 SAMURAI'SFIRSTLADY (ML=5/2)


    OSCURA - This mare ran well in her last race but just couldn't catch the winner. Note that she was well ahead of the 3rd horse, and looks like a major contender in this field. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Reyes, and this one could bound home the winner. Have to give this mare a good shot. Ran a good race in the last race within the last month. SAMURAI'SFIRSTLADY - Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Gulfstream Park, scored a big turf number. Have to think she can do it again in today's race. Equibase speed figures on the grass point to this racer as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance & surface. This filly's last speed rating is strong enough to score here, I'll bet on her back again in today's event.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 CRAVE (ML=8/5), #2 REINA LA KELSY (ML=7/2),

    CRAVE - October 15th is the last time we've seen this filly around. Have to be a little bit leery. REINA LA KELSY - This mount just hasn't looked sharp recently.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Putting our cash on #6 OSCURA to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,6]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass

    SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
    Pass

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hawthorne

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 6 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11200 Class Rating: 90

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 9 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 4 SANAVI 9/5

    # 1 LITTLE IKE 7/2

    # 5 MCHENRY 15/1

    I think about SANAVI here. Boasts sound speed figures on average overall when compared with the rest of this field. Posted a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. A solid 88 avg class fig may give this colt a distinct class edge against this group. LITTLE IKE - Has earned formidable Equibase speed figs in dirt route races in the past. With Santiago in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early for this event. MCHENRY - Should best this group here, showing decent figures of late.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

    Remington Park - Race 1

    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)


    Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 65 • Purse: $14,850 • Post: 7:07P
    FOR MAIDEN, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $15,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SHOWIT is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHOWIT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DYLAN DID IT: Today is a sprint and this is the ho rse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. AMOUR: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own ha lf-mile time in its last race.
    6
    SHOWIT
    9/2

    3/1
    5
    DYLAN DID IT
    4/5

    9/2
    7
    AMOUR
    6/1

    8/1

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    Jim Feist

    Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, November 9, 2017

    NBA (705) CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS (706) HOUSTON ROCKETS

    Take: OVER

    Reason: Your free play for Thursday, November 9, 2017 is in the NBA contest on TNT between the Cavaliers and the Rockets. The 5-6 Cleveland Cavaliers play at the 8-3 Houston Rockets tonight. Not really sure what Cleveland is doing these days. It appears they are taking a very casual approach to the regular season and it shows in their losing record. They also haven't been good to bettors, going 2-8-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Rockets are 6-5 ATS on the season. Both teams are averaging the exact same points per game at 109.9. The biggest difference is that Cleveland is allowing 113.9 ppg while Houston allows just 103.3 ppg. Cleveland usually provides overs when they have at least a days rest, evidenced by their 27-11 O/U mark the last 38 times. The Cavs are also 47-23-1 (67%) over/under their last 71 overall. When the Rockets have had at least three days rest, they are 7-3 O/U their 10. These teams should get plenty of points here tonight. Play the OVER.

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    Arthur Ralph Sports

    THURS: NHL Vancouver +140

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    BIG AL

    Our complimentary selection for Thursday, Nov 9 is:

    Minnesota Wild over Montreal Canadiens.

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    CAPPERS CLUB

    Rockets vs Cavaliers Over 228

    This play just missed out on our premium card. The Cleveland Cavaliers and the Houston Rockets face off on Thursday, and with two teams who can really score, the over has the value.
    These are both teams who have no issue putting the ball into the hoop with both teams coming into this game averaging 109.9 points per game.
    Over the last five games for both of those teams that number has risen to over 114 though. The Cavaliers also have not shown much ability to play defense this year, which means the Rockets are going to have a field day.
    Coming into this game the Cavaliers are giving up almost 114 points per game, and opponents are shooting 41.9 percent from three.
    I expect James Harden will have no issue in this game, and light up the scoreboard.
    Some trends to note. Over is 5-1 in Cavaliers last six road games. Over is 4-0 in Rockets last four overall.
    Back the Over.

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    DUSTIN HAWKINS

    Free Play on Rockets -5 -115

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    Pure Lock

    NFL SEATTLE SEAHAWKS ‑5.5

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    When: 8:25 PM ET, Thursday, November 9, 2017
    Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

    Preview: Seahawks at Cardinals

    Gracenote
    Nov 7, 2017

    The Seattle Seahawks were fit to be tied after seeing their four-game winning streak come to a halt last week following three missed field-goal attempts and a season-high 16 penalties. Speaking of ties, the Seahawks return to the site of a rare draw last season when they visit the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday.

    "Yeah, it's a great challenge, obviously, for Thursday night games. ... I think the biggest thing is the preparation part of it," Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson, who threw multiple touchdown passes for the third straight week and fifth time in six games in Sunday's 17-14 loss to Washington, told reporters. The 28-year-old tossed four scoring strikes in a 34-31 setback against Arizona last season on Christmas Eve after both teams were limited to field goals in a 6-6 tie on Oct. 23, 2016. Adrian Peterson was not a member of the Cardinals for those contests, but the 32-year-old is making up for lost time in a hurry with a career-high 37 rushes for 159 yards in Sunday's 20-10 victory over winless San Francisco. When asked what type of workload is expected for Peterson on the short week, Arizona coach Bruce Arians told reporters, "I would think the same as last week. ... I wouldn't challenge him in any form or fashion by saying, 'You're only going to get 20 (carries)' because I'd probably have to fight him on the sideline."

    TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network. LINE: Seahawks -5.5 O/U: 44.5

    ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-3): Blair Walsh had reason to hang his head after missing field-goal attempts of 44, 39 and 49 yards versus the Redskins, but coach Pete Carroll didn't want those misfires to lead to the 27-year-old kicker worrying about his job security. "I'm concerned that he had trouble in this game," Carroll said on his 710 ESPN Seattle radio show. "I don't think that that has to do with anything (on Thursday). We'll find out. We'll see him come on back." Doug Baldwin, who made a career-best 13 catches for 171 yards and a touchdown in the last encounter with Arizona, has 22 receptions on 34 targets for 254 yards and two scores over his last three games.

    ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-4): Drew Stanton traditionally has stepped up when called upon, and the 33-year-old did precisely that by extending his winning streak to four starts - albeit spread over nearly three years - by tossing two touchdown passes versus the 49ers. "When Drew steps in the huddle, there is total confidence in the other 10 guys," Arians told reporters. "They know he knows this offense inside and out, and when he gets a hot hand, he can really light you up." J.J. Nelson rolled up 132 receiving yards in his last encounter with Seattle but has made just three catches for 54 yards in his last three overall games.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. Seattle S Earl Thomas (hamstring) will be a game-time decision while RB C.J. Prosise is expected to play on Thursday despite nursing a high-ankle sprain that has caused him to miss all but two snaps in the last five contests.

    2. The Cardinals are 6-1-1 in their last eight games against NFC West rivals.

    3. The Seahawks lead the NFL in accepted penalties with 82 and penalty yards with 682.

    PREDICTION: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 16



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    Trends - Seattle at Arizona


    ATS TRENDS

    Seattle
    • Seahawks are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
    • Seahawks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 10.
    • Seahawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
    • Seahawks are 24-8-2 ATS in their last 34 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
    • Seahawks are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
    • Seahawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.
    • Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Seahawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
    • Seahawks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.

    Arizona
    • Cardinals are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
    • Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    • Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.
    • Cardinals are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 home games.
    • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
    • Cardinals are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
    • Cardinals are 4-14 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in November.
    • Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
    • Cardinals are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
    OU TRENDS

    Seattle
    • Under is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. NFC.
    • Over is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
    • Over is 6-2 in Seahawks last 8 games in Week 10.
    • Over is 5-2 in Seahawks last 7 games following a straight up loss.
    • Under is 7-3 in Seahawks last 10 vs. NFC West.

    Arizona
    • Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    • Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games overall.
    • Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 vs. NFC.
    • Under is 12-3 in Cardinals last 15 home games.
    • Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games on grass.
    • Over is 7-2 in Cardinals last 9 games in Week 10.
    • Under is 9-3 in Cardinals last 12 vs. NFC West.
    • Over is 5-2 in Cardinals last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Over is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Under is 7-3 in Cardinals last 10 games following a ATS win.
    • Over is 11-5-1 in Cardinals last 17 games in November.
    • Under is 11-5 in Cardinals last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
    • Under is 15-7-1 in Cardinals last 23 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
    HEAD TO HEAD

    • Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Arizona.
    • Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
    • Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
    • Over is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings in Arizona.

  17. #17
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    NFL
    Long Sheet

    Week 10


    Thursday, November 9

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    SEATTLE (5 - 3) at ARIZONA (4 - 4) - 11/9/2017, 8:25 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    ARIZONA is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
    2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

  18. #18
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    NFL

    Week 10


    Trend Report

    Thursday, November 9

    SEATTLE @ ARIZONA
    Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
    Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
    The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 13 games when playing at home against Seattle

  19. #19
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    NFL
    Dunkel

    Week 10


    Thursday, November 9

    Seattle @ Arizona

    Game 111-112
    November 9, 2017 @ 8:25 pm

    Dunkel Rating:
    Seattle
    135.686
    Arizona
    126.665
    Dunkel Team:
    Dunkel Line:
    Dunkel Total:
    Seattle
    by 9
    46
    Vegas Team:
    Vegas Line:
    Vegas Total:
    Seattle
    by 5 1/2
    41
    Dunkel Pick:
    Seattle
    (-5 1/2); Over

  20. #20
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    NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10
    Monty Andrews

    Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5, 41.5)

    Seahawks' lack of discipine vs. Cardinals' ability to draw flags

    The Seattle Seahawks are no longer the best team in the NFC West - shockingly, that monicker now belongs to the Los Angeles Rams. But the Seahawks can begin the climb back to the peak with a victory Thursday against the division-rival Arizona Cardinals. Seattle is favored by nearly a touchdown in this one, but the Cardinals have been far more disciplined this season than the Seahawks - and that might be the kind of advantage that could prove to be an equalizer.

    Seattle has gotten in its own way more than any other team in the league this season, racking up a mind-boggling 82 accepted penalties through its first nine games - nine more than the second-place New York Jets. The Seahawks' 673 accepted penalty yards also pace the NFL, and they're a distant 32nd in penalty flag margin (minus-31) and penalty yards differential (minus-232). Seattle picked up a whopping 16 penalties for 138 yards in last weekend's 17-14 home loss to the Washington Redskins.

    Winning the penalty flag battle could prove difficult against a Cardinals team that has had an advantage in that area for the majority of the season. While Arizona ranks in the middle of the pack with 55 accepted penalties, the Cardinals have drawn 68 flags - tied with Miami for the most in the league - for 566 yards, fifth-most overall. Arizona's plus-13 flag differential ranks third in the NFL - and a similar edge this weekend could put the Cardinals in position for an upset win.

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