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Thread: Wednesday 11-15-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Wednesday 11-15-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

    RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST
    6.0 FURLONGS OUTER TURF THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $60,000.00 PURSE

    #9 CHARNLEY RIVER
    #2 SWITZERLAND
    #3 MINI MILES
    #7 FACTORIAL

    #9 CHARNLEY RIVER, a rare Austrian-bred entry racing in North America, has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each if his last five outings, hitting the board in four of those races. Jockey Jose Ortiz and Trainer Chris Clement send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 51% of their more than 50 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 SWITZERLAND, the "unplayable" 2-5 morning line favorite, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has turned in quartet of "POWER RUNS" in his last five outings, hitting the board in three of those efforts.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

    Churchill Downs - Race 3

    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)


    Claiming $8,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $16,000 • Post: 2:00P
    FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * NORTH OF EDEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BRILLIANT KITTEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. BIRD STREET: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster P ower Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
    6
    NORTH OF EDEN
    5/2

    7/2
    4
    BRILLIANT KITTEN
    7/5

    9/2
    5
    BIRD STREET
    5/2

    5/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    5
    BIRD STREET
    5

    5/2
    Front-runner
    70

    80

    58.6

    71.0

    66.0
    1
    ADMIRAL'S BRIDE
    1

    15/1
    Front-runner
    65

    53

    56.9

    29.4

    19.4
    6
    NORTH OF EDEN
    6

    5/2
    Stalker
    76

    74

    54.8

    74.4

    71.4
    4
    BRILLIANT KITTEN
    4

    7/5
    Alternator/Stalker
    76

    73

    38.9

    64.4

    60.9
    3
    GOLDEN FIRE FLY
    3

    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    61

    56

    75.3

    39.6

    28.6
    2
    INDY'S FINESSE
    2

    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    61

    56

    56.2

    49.8

    39.3
    7
    FREEDOM WORKS
    7

    15/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    64

    71

    13.3

    37.0

    25.0

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Gulfstream Park West - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 79

    Rating: 4

    #5 FALLEN LEAF (ML=6/1)
    #3 LADY LYDIE (ML=12/1)
    #7 DIXIE GRITS (ML=20/1)


    FALLEN LEAF - Was in a $12,500 Claiming race at Gulfstream Park West last time out. That race had a class figure of 85 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain contender. The jockey and handler combination have a positive return on investment when they partner up. The fact that this filly is entered right back into a race so quickly means she's fit and ready. This filly is certainly on the improve with speed figures of 62, 70, 75 last three out. Filly is a few starts into a come back here. Should give a big performance today. LADY LYDIE - 'Horse-for-the-course' is a classic handicapping angle. Since this filly has won over this course it may give her an advantage. Garcia and Manning partnered with one another are a horse gambler's friend. This thoroughbred has a lot of class. A good sign in a turf race like we have today. DIXIE GRITS - This jockey and handler have a favorable ROI when they team up.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BETTABE FAST (ML=2/1), #2 FLYING QUEEN (ML=3/1), #8 SASSY SLEW (ML=4/1),

    BETTABE FAST - This horse just hasn't been winning as the favorite. FLYING QUEEN - If you keep playing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned often. Finished first in her most recent race with a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this bunch. SASSY SLEW - Just can't wager on this mount. Didn't show me anything last out or on September 23rd.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Go with #5 FALLEN LEAF on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,5,7]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,5,7] Total Cost: $6

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass

    SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
    Skip

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21900 Class Rating: 99

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 2 WILLIWAW 5/2

    # 1 CORT'N ASONG 9/2

    # 7 BLOW THE WHISTLE 8/1

    WILLIWAW looks very good to best this field. This horse has been consistently racing well as of late. A solid 102 avg class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge versus this field. Has to be given a chance against this group displaying very good figs as of late and an average speed rating of 94 under similar conditions. CORT'N ASONG - Should finish in the money without any problem. Trainer boasts solid win figures at this distance and surface. BLOW THE WHISTLE - Can't overlook the connections here, a 25 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. Overall the Speed Figures of this equine look very good in this race.

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 5 - SO - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17600 Class Rating: 98

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $10,000 OR LESS IN 2016-2017 OR CLAIMING PRICE $15,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 15, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 7 ITSALLABOUTYOU 8/5

    # 1 MY VALIDATION 12/1

    # 2 CHESTNUT JOHNNY 2/1

    ITSALLABOUTYOU looks solid to best this field. Recent numbers for the jockey - 27 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group. Garnered a formidable speed rating last time out. His 88 average has this gelding with among the strongest Speed Figures in this event. MY VALIDATION - Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Young have shown strong results lately. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of horses in this race - worth a look. CHESTNUT JOHNNY - Could beat this group of horses given the 96 Equibase Speed Figure put up in his last outing. He must be given consideration given the decent speed figures.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf Paradise

    Turf Paradise - Race 8

    $1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta


    Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 54 • Purse: $7,000 • Post: 4:14P
    (PLUS UP TO 10% PLUS 10%) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, IF FOR $7,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

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    Odds


    Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. CREATIVE DOUX is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CREATIVE DOUX: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PERFECTLY SEASONED: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ITSONLYME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designati on. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    1
    CREATIVE DOUX
    2/1

    2/1
    2
    PERFECTLY SEASONED
    9/5

    5/1
    6
    ITSONLYME
    20/1

    6/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    CREATIVE DOUX
    1

    2/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    60

    50

    62.5

    50.9

    47.9
    6
    ITSONLYME
    6

    20/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    59

    38

    59.4

    34.8

    28.3
    4
    GLIMPSEDINTHEMIST
    4

    20/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    0

    0

    51.4

    27.9

    17.4
    2
    PERFECTLY SEASONED
    2

    9/5
    Alternator/Stalker
    54

    57

    45.6

    50.9

    47.9
    7
    MARCH BADNESS
    7

    12/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    47

    30

    38.5

    20.5

    9.5
    5
    COSMIC OCEAN
    5

    5/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    34.1

    25.0

    17.0

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Woodbine - Race #4 - Post: 8:12pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,600 Class Rating: 76

    Rating: 3

    #4 SHANTY TOWN (ML=5/1)
    #12 TIMEFORASTAR (ML=12/1)
    #2 WONNESTRUT (ML=12/1)


    SHANTY TOWN - This campaigner coming off a solid try in the last month or so is a solid contender in my opinion. I like the case that this gelding's last speed rating, 76, is tops in this field. This thoroughbred has increased his Equibase speed figures in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is important to note. TIMEFORASTAR - This gelding should give a strong account of himself in today's race. WONNESTRUT - After the race aboard this equine on November 3rd, the rider is going to be in tune with the gelding much better. Out of the money finish in the last race at Woodbine was better than it looked on paper. He improved position in the lane and never gave up.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LASER FOCUS (ML=5/2), #6 LEO THE RABBIT (ML=7/2), #3 RARE APPEAL (ML=6/1),

    LASER FOCUS - Not a value play to back the chalk when he continues to lose time and time again when favored. Really had to show me lots more last time around the track. Never made much of an impact. This gelding recorded a speed figure in his last affair which probably isn't good enough today. RARE APPEAL - You always figure that this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he comes up short often. This horse doesn't win here at Woodbine. He needs some different racetrack to show his best.

    Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WONNESTRUT - Despite finishing fourth in the last race, wasn't too far from the victor. Fits with this bunch.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    #4 SHANTY TOWN to win at post-time odds of 5/2 or better

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    4 with [2,12]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [2,4,12] Total Cost: $6

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    [2,4,12] with [2,4,12] with [2,4,5,6,12] with [2,4,5,6,12] Total Cost: $36

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    Arthur Ralph Sports

    WED: Mia Ohio CFB - 3

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    CHRIS JORDAN

    Another free NHL winner last night, with the Minnesota Wild getting it done over the Philadelphia Flyers. Tonight I'm sending you to Anaheim, where I like the Ducks and Boston Bruins to stay Under the posted number.

    The headline appeared to be perfect: "Banged-up Bruins, dinged Ducks..."

    That summarizes two normally competitive teams, suffering through a rough first couple of months of the season. But one thing these teams haven't lacked is the type of physicality coaches like to see.

    Tonight, I'm banking on that physical play from the defensive side of the ice from both teams, and this one to stay low.

    The Ducks come in after Sunday's tough 2-1 loss to the offensive Tampa Bay Lightning. That is an accomplishment in its own, considering the Lightning lead the league with nearly 4 goals per game. Anaheim goaltender John Gibson, who had 35 saves Sunday, has played solid over the first quarter of the season

    Anaheim - which has stayed under in five of seven against Atlantic Division foes - allows 2.8 goals per game, while the Bruins - who are on a 4-1 under run against the Pacific Division - let in 3.1 goals, so they're both aware of how tough it will be to score tonight.

    Play this one low.

    1* UNDER Ducks/Bruins

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    BIG AL

    Our complimentary selection for Wednesday, Nov 15 is:

    Oklahoma -14.5 over Ball State. 4

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    SCOTT SPREITZER
    NBA | Nov 15, 2017
    Wizards vs. Heat
    Wizards+1

    I'm backing the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night. Washington has caught fire on the offensive end, making 47.4% of their shots on the season. They will push the tempo and that should be a problem for a Miami team off a long road trip (10 days) and one without the weapons to "keep up." Miami has covered just 10 of their last 35 off a road trip of a week or longer. Home court has been a serious bankroll burner for those backing the Heat. They'll head into tonight's contest on a 0-9-2 ATS slide at home. Washington is using a lot of its bench and the reserves have been responding. They'll bring a steady rotation of fresh bodies into this one and we believe it'll prove to be too much for the Heat. The Wizards are top-5 in offensive efficiency, while the Heat struggle in this key category. At the same time, the teams are quite close on the defensive end. We'll back the Washington Wizards on Wednesday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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    CAPPERS CLUB

    76ers -3

    This Play just missed out on our premium card. The Philadelphia 76ers will look for the sweep over the Los Angeles teams on Wednesday night, and I think they will get that done, and cover the spread.
    The 76ers have been a bit inconsistent this year, but they come into this game off a huge win over the Clippers in this game.
    A lot of that had to do with Joel Embiid. He played for 36 minutes against the Clippers and put up 32 points, and 16 rebounds.
    They finally seem to be taking the minutes restrictions off Embiid, and he has not disappointed. When he is on the court there is no one that can stop him, and I think that will be the case again in this one.
    I don't think the Lakers will have any answer for Embiid and he will lead this team to big victory.
    Some trends to note. 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Pacific. 76ers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles.
    Back the 76ers

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    RED DOG SPORTS
    Soccer | Nov 15, 2017
    Peterborough United vs. Tranmere
    Peterborough United-115

    This match takes place in England's FA Cup on Wednesday. I like Peterborough to win 2-1.

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    JOE DELPOPOLO
    NCAA-F | Nov 15, 2017
    Toledo vs. Bowling Green
    Toledo-17

    Based on my Stat-Key Power Raking system and predictive math-model Toledo will squeak out the cover in this one. Bowling Green has a horrible defense and Toledo will be motivated after last weeks loss on the road.
    Toledo 41 Bowling Green 22

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    DUSTIN HAWKINS

    Free Play on Pelicans -3½ -110

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    BEN BURNS
    NBA | Nov 15, 2017
    Magic vs. Blazers
    Blazers-5

    There are no must-win games in mid-November, but the Trail Blazers are looking at a we-really-need-to-win battle tonight at home against the Magic. The Blazers are stuck in the muddle of the middle – 7-6 this season after finishing 41-41 last season – and they are ending a 6-game homestand and getting ready to play 6 of the next 7 on the road. They need some momentum and their 17-point win over Denver on Monday certainly helps. A couple of lineup changes by coach Terry Stotts got everyone’s attention and with a longer (10-man) rotation, the Blazers should have plenty of confidence against Orlando.

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    SEAN MURPHY
    NBA | Nov 15, 2017
    76ers vs. Lakers
    Lakers+3

    Wednesday NBA free play. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:35 pm et on Wednesday.
    This is the tail-end of a long five-game road trip for the 76ers, who have gone a respectable 2-2 so far on the jaunt, and are fresh off a win over the Clippers right here at Staples Center on Monday.
    The common line of thinking is that this is a winnable game for Philadelphia against a young Lakers squad that should be in for a letdown following a big road win in Phoenix on Monday. I'm not sure this will be the gimme for the Sixers that most expect, however.
    Philadelphia is still learning to win on the road and this is one of those spots where I'm not sure it will be able to match the opposition's energy level for four quarters. The Sixers will be looking ahead to a three-game in five-night homestand that will tip off on Friday. Tough spot here to be laying points on the highway.

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    CAPPERS ACCESS
    (CBB)Seton Hall
    (CBB) Creighton
    (NBA Knicks
    (CFB) Toledo

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    Trends - Sacramento at Atlanta


    ATS TRENDS

    Sacramento
    • Kings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Kings are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.
    • Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Wednesday games.
    • Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
    • Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
    • Kings are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
    • Kings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
    • Kings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Kings are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
    • Kings are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Kings are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
    • Kings are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
    • Kings are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
    • Kings are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.

    Atlanta
    • Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    • Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
    • Hawks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
    • Hawks are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
    • Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.
    • Hawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
    • Hawks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
    • Hawks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
    OU TRENDS

    Sacramento
    • Over is 5-0 in Kings last 5 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
    • Over is 4-0 in Kings last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
    • Over is 4-1 in Kings last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
    • Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
    • Over is 11-5 in Kings last 16 games following a ATS loss.

    Atlanta
    • Over is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-1-1 in Hawks last 7 home games.
    • Under is 9-2 in Hawks last 11 Wednesday games.
    • Over is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
    • Under is 13-3 in Hawks last 16 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
    • Under is 12-3-1 in Hawks last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
    • Over is 3-1-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
    • Over is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 overall.
    • Under is 21-7 in Hawks last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
    • Over is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-2 in Hawks last 7 games following a straight up loss.
    • Under is 5-2-1 in Hawks last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Under is 37-18-1 in Hawks last 56 vs. Western Conference.
    HEAD TO HEAD

    • Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.
    • Over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings.
    • Favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
    • Kings are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
    • Kings are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Atlanta.

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