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Thread: Tuesday 11-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Tuesday 11-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Gulfstream Park West - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 83

    Rating: 3

    #5 PARTY TARDE (ML=10/1)
    #4 COTTON TOOYAH (ML=6/1)
    #3 UNO DUDE (ML=4/1)


    PARTY TARDE - That 81 fig this filly garnered in her last affair tells me she's a main player this time out. This filly is in fine form. Ran first on October 18th. COTTON TOOYAH - Was in a $30,000 Claiming race at Gulfstream Park West last out. That event had a class number of 88 and she is moving down in this event. A certain serious competitor. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit. Don't throw this horse out due to her last event at Gulfstream Park West where she ended up fifth on a sloppy track. Should improve this time around. UNO DUDE - Was in a $16,000 Claiming race at Belmont Park last out. That event had a class rating of 88 and she is moving down today. A certain solid contender. Another way to identify class is EPS (earnings per start). This horse has the topmost in the group. I think she'll be close at the finish line.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #7 SHE'S SPOILED (ML=3/1), #1 GRAYCIEZ SPIRIT (ML=7/2), #6 LIZA STAR (ML=5/1),

    SHE'S SPOILED - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this entrant when checking the most recent showings. Can't wager on this racer in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event of late. GRAYCIEZ SPIRIT - Difficult to bet on any animal to turn things around if there is no value to taking the shot. Finished sixth in her most recent performance with a substandard speed figure. When I look at today's class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this field. LIZA STAR - She showed not much at all in the last contest. This filly garnered a speed fig in her last race which likely isn't good enough today.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Putting our cash on #5 PARTY TARDE to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,4,5]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass

    SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
    Pass

  3. #3
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

    Mountaineer Park - Race 2

    Second Half $2 Early Daily Double (Races 1 &2) ($.50) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5) $2 Trifecta $2 Exacta $1 Trifecta Box $1 Exacta Box ($.50) Superfecta


    Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $6,200 • Post: 7:22P
    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Dominant Trailer. CRAFTY COLONEL is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CRAFTY COLONEL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
    2
    CRAFTY COLONEL
    8/1

    8/5




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    9
    COWBOY CHEYENNE
    9

    6/1
    Front-runner
    72

    63

    93.8

    55.2

    48.2
    5
    ASCANIUS
    5

    3/1
    Front-runner
    75

    70

    67.6

    65.4

    60.4
    1
    ABOVE ALL ODDS
    1

    5/2
    Front-runner
    66

    69

    66.2

    44.0

    34.0
    3
    QUICK AND FURIOUS
    3

    6/1
    Front-runner
    57

    62

    58.8

    51.2

    36.2
    4
    COULD IT BE ME
    4

    6/1
    Alternator/Front-runner
    66

    63

    70.2

    57.4

    49.9
    2
    CRAFTY COLONEL
    2

    8/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    93

    86

    101.6

    68.2

    60.7
    8
    SUMDIVO
    8

    30/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    79

    66

    64.4

    43.6

    26.6
    6
    NICKEL BRED
    6

    12/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    74

    60

    61.8

    53.8

    40.8
    7
    CAUTION HIGH WATER
    7

    8/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    72

    61

    48.4

    54.6

    47.6

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

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    Mountaineer Park - Race #2 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,200 Class Rating: 74

    Rating: 4

    #1 ABOVE ALL ODDS (ML=5/2)


    ABOVE ALL ODDS - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. Gonzalez rode this horse for the first time in the last race and comes right back today. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the trip. That was a powerful win last time out. In my opinion has a good chance to repeat today.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #5 ASCANIUS (ML=3/1), #3 QUICK AND FURIOUS (ML=6/1), #9 COWBOY CHEYENNE (ML=6/1),

    ASCANIUS - Tough to keep chasing this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. The speed fig last time out doesn't fit very well in this clash when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a questionable contender. QUICK AND FURIOUS - In any race of 5 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been sharp in short distance contests recently. This gelding hasn't been showing me anything positive in the last two races around the track. COWBOY CHEYENNE - Unlikely that the speed rating he notched on October 17th will be good enough in this race.

    Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - ABOVE ALL ODDS - This gelding has the top speed figure last race with a very good 76. He is the top wager here.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Have to go with #1 ABOVE ALL ODDS on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    1 with 3

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    None

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course

    Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 3

    Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta 20 cent Buckeye Pick 6 (Races 3-8)


    Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 1:40P
    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CAVE WOLF is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CAVE WOLF: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LOUIE'S HIGHWAY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PRADOREY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    5
    CAVE WOLF
    5/2

    3/1
    7
    LOUIE'S HIGHWAY
    6/1

    8/1
    1
    PRADOREY
    10/1

    8/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    5
    CAVE WOLF
    5

    5/2
    Front-runner
    62

    64

    37.0

    60.7

    57.7
    4
    HAT IN HAND
    4

    5/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    64

    51

    62.0

    44.8

    37.3
    2
    BATTLE CROSSING
    2

    12/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    63

    48

    46.2

    28.8

    15.3
    1
    PRADOREY
    1

    10/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    63

    61

    78.8

    39.9

    33.4
    7
    LOUIE'S HIGHWAY
    7

    6/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    68

    59

    56.8

    37.3

    29.8
    9
    TOUCH OF MIDAS
    9

    20/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    63

    51

    33.6

    39.8

    27.3
    6
    STORM BOURNE
    6

    10/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    52.9

    36.3

    26.3
    8
    MY LAST SECRET
    8

    3/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    47

    47

    43.3

    37.2

    25.2
    3
    MCSTUFFINS
    3

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    14.2

    14.2

    0.0

  6. #6
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 68

    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 11 EMOTICON 3/1

    # 10 BLYDE RIVER 9/2

    # 4 PARTNER'S POWER 8/1

    EMOTICON is my choice. Should expect a sound attempt with the class drop. This pony is at the top in this group of horses in this race in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Lake has this colt racing well and is a very good selection based on the quite good Equibase speed figs garnered in route races recently. BLYDE RIVER - He has earned very strong figs under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Should definitely be carefully examined for this event if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Fig posted in the last competition. PARTNER'S POWER - Should be given a chance based on the very good speed fig put up in the last race.

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6300 Class Rating: 63

    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 7 MOONLIGHT TA KELA 5/2

    # 8 TIMBER CRUISER 2/1

    # 2 ATSINA WARRIOR 4/1

    My pick for this event is MOONLIGHT TA KELA. The speed figure of 57 from his last race looks quite good in here. Wagerers get an edge when playing this conditioner in a dirt sprint race. His 52 average has this gelding with among the best Equibase speed figs for this event. TIMBER CRUISER - Has been running solidly lately and ought to be up near the front end early on. Difficult to pass on this gelding with Ramgeet in the irons. ATSINA WARRIOR - Overall the speed figures of this racer look strong in this contest. Earned a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race.

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    Handicapped by Valuline at Zia Park

    Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
    Zia Park, Race 4 (Tuesday November 14, 2017)

    ELEUTHEROS
    (For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

    ZIA-4 6f DIRT Eight Horses
    "A" CLM 5,000 3YUP $9,000
    P# ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL

    4 ELEUTHEROS 7/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
    8 SLADENS DREAM 3/1 14% 6/1
    1 WINE N DIVINE 8/1 13% 7/1
    7 MO ED WHO 15/1 13% 7/1

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    Jim Feist

    Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Tuesday, November 14, 2017

    NBA (505) SAN ANTONIO SPURS VS (506) DALLAS MAVERICKS

    Take: OVER

    Reason: Your free play for Tuesday, November 14, 2017 is in the NBA contest between the San Antonio Spurs and the Dallas Mavericks. After a dismal start, the Spurs have things on track with four wins in their last five games. The Spurs coming off a 39 point victory over the Bulls. Dallas has just one win in their last nine games and have lost two straight. The Mavs are also just 1-8 ATS their last nine games and 5-16-1 ATS the last 22 overall. The Spurs have been without Tony Parker and Leonard. Parker could return at the end of November with Leonard's return unknown. The Spurs have been a very good over club of late, posting a 21-10 O/U mark their last 31, 11-5 O/U their last 16 road games and 10-4 O/U their last 14 with two days rest. By this year's standards, this is a low total. The Spurs should have no problem scoring and if we can get anything out of the Mavs, this is an OVER.

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    Arthur Ralph Sports

    TUES CFB Ohio -12

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    RED DOG SPORTS
    Soccer | Nov 14, 2017
    Gois vs. CRB
    CRB -115

    Our FREE SOCCER PLAY takes place in South America on Tuesday afternoon.
    Gois 1
    CRB 2

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    JOE DELPOPOLO
    NCAA-F | Nov 14, 2017
    Ohio vs. Akron
    Akron+13 -110

    Based on my Stat-Key Power Raking system and predictive math-model Akron should stay within the number here. After a big home win last week by Ohio U we look for a little letdown on the road this week to a below-average team.
    Ohio U 32 Akron 21

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    BEN BURNS
    NBA | Nov 14, 2017
    Spurs vs. Mavs
    Spurs-6

    It’s taken a while for Pop to figure out how things would shake down without the likes of Ginobili, Parker and Leonard, but order seems to have been restored after a brutal start. With four wins in their last five, the Spurs head into a road-centric next two weeks with what looks like a layup in Dallas. San Antonio’s veterans had their way with the Bulls in their last game, with eight players padding their stats by scoring in double figures in a 37-point victory. The Spurs should be able to cover the spread pretty easily against a Dallas team that is still trying to figure things out.

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    DUSTIN HAWKINS

    Free Play on Stanford -16½ -110

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    LARRY NESS
    My 1* Free Play is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST).

    Toronto comes in off a tough 95-94 road loss to Boston Sunday. Houston has won six straight, most recently getting by Indiana 118-95.
    Note that these team’s split a pair of games last year, with each winning on the others floor.
    DeMar DeRozan had 24 points for Toronto in the loss to the Celtics. The Raptors average 108.8 PPG and concede 104.3.
    Toronto is a deep team, with DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, big man Jona Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka and Norman Powell.
    With a six game win streak under their belts and a 2.5 game lead in the division over the Spurs, there’s no question in my mind that this now finally sets up as a mental letdown spot for the Rockets.
    Additionally I’ll point out that Houston is just 15-22 ATS in its last 37 after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 23-30 ATS in its last 53 following a victory by ten points or more.
    Toronto has excelled against good offensive teams this year, going 4-2 ATS against clubs that average 106-plus points per contest.
    Should be a nail-biter and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
    Good luck…Larry

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    BIG AL

    Our complimentary selection for Tuesday, Nov 14 is:

    Villanova -31.5 over Nicholls St.

  17. #17
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    When: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, November 14, 2017
    Where: Dix Stadium, Kent, Ohio
    QUICK HITS

    Overall Team Offense

    • The Kent State Golden Flashes are ranked 129 on offense, averaging 256.2 yards per game. The Golden Flashes are averaging 149.5 yards rushing and 106.7 yards passing so far this season.
    • The Central Michigan Chippewas are ranked 79 on offense, averaging 386.8 yards per game. The Chippewas are averaging 143.5 yards rushing and 243.3 yards passing so far this season.


    Home and Away

    • The Kent State Golden Flashes are 2-2 at home this season, 1-5 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents.
    • At home the Golden Flashes are averaging 21.0 scoring, and holding teams to 29.0 points scored on defense.
    • The Central Michigan Chippewas are 4-2 while on the road this season, 4-2 against conference opponents and 2-2 against non-conference opponents.
    • On the road, the Chippewas are averaging 31.2 scoring, and holding teams to 26.0 points scored on defense.



  18. #18
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    Trends - Central Michigan at Kent State


    ATS TRENDS

    Central Michigan
    • Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
    • Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    • Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
    • Chippewas are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Chippewas are 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
    • Chippewas are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
    • Chippewas are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

    Kent State
    • Golden Flashes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
    • Golden Flashes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
    • Golden Flashes are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Golden Flashes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
    • Golden Flashes are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
    • Golden Flashes are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
    • Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
    • Golden Flashes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Golden Flashes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
    • Golden Flashes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    OU TRENDS

    Central Michigan
    • Under is 6-1 in Chippewas last 7 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Under is 4-1 in Chippewas last 5 Tuesday games.
    • Over is 6-2 in Chippewas last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
    • Under is 6-2 in Chippewas last 8 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-2 in Chippewas last 7 games in November.
    • Under is 9-4 in Chippewas last 13 games overall.

    Kent State
    • Over is 5-1 in Golden Flashes last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-1 in Golden Flashes last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Over is 9-3 in Golden Flashes last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    HEAD TO HEAD

    • Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
    • Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

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    When: 7:00 PM ET, Tuesday, November 14, 2017
    Where: InfoCision Stadium, Akron, Ohio
    QUICK HITS

    Overall Team Offense

    • The Akron Zips are ranked 119 on offense, averaging 325.3 yards per game. The Zips are averaging 105.5 yards rushing and 219.8 yards passing so far this season.
    • The Ohio Bobcats are ranked 33 on offense, averaging 438.4 yards per game. The Bobcats are averaging 250.8 yards rushing and 187.6 yards passing so far this season.


    Home and Away

    • The Akron Zips are 3-1 at home this season, 4-2 against conference opponents and 1-3 against non-conference opponents.
    • At home the Zips are averaging 29.5 scoring, and holding teams to 16.8 points scored on defense.
    • The Ohio Bobcats are 3-1 while on the road this season, 5-1 against conference opponents and 3-1 against non-conference opponents.
    • On the road, the Bobcats are averaging 38.5 scoring, and holding teams to 36.0 points scored on defense.



  20. #20
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    Trends - Ohio at Akron


    ATS TRENDS

    Ohio
    • Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
    • Bobcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    • Bobcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Bobcats are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Bobcats are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games.
    • Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
    • Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
    • Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Bobcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games on fieldturf.
    • Bobcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
    • Bobcats are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
    • Bobcats are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

    Akron
    • Zips are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
    • Zips are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
    • Zips are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
    • Zips are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
    • Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
    • Zips are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
    • Zips are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Zips are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
    • Zips are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    • Zips are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
    • Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    OU TRENDS

    Ohio
    • Under is 5-0 in Bobcats last 5 games in November.
    • Over is 6-1 in Bobcats last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    • Over is 5-1 in Bobcats last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    • Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Over is 4-1 in Bobcats last 5 road games.
    • Under is 9-3 in Bobcats last 12 Tuesday games.
    • Over is 3-1-1 in Bobcats last 5 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    • Under is 22-8-1 in Bobcats last 31 conference games.
    • Over is 8-3 in Bobcats last 11 games overall.
    • Under is 10-4-1 in Bobcats last 15 games following a straight up win.
    • Over is 7-3 in Bobcats last 10 games on fieldturf.
    • Under is 34-16-1 in Bobcats last 51 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

    Akron
    • Under is 4-0 in Zips last 4 Tuesday games.
    • Under is 5-0 in Zips last 5 games in November.
    • Under is 7-1 in Zips last 8 games following a ATS win.
    • Under is 7-1 in Zips last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    • Under is 6-1 in Zips last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    • Under is 26-9 in Zips last 35 games following a straight up loss.
    • Under is 19-7 in Zips last 26 home games.
    • Under is 37-14 in Zips last 51 conference games.
    • Under is 20-8 in Zips last 28 vs. a team with a winning record.
    • Under is 47-19 in Zips last 66 games overall.
    • Under is 40-19 in Zips last 59 games on fieldturf.
    HEAD TO HEAD

    • Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
    • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

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