Service Plays Sunday 11/19/17

[New York Knight]

Larry Ness


Lock - Green Bay

[New York Knight]

ZACK CIMINI

minnesota -2.5
giants +10.5

[New York Knight]

Indian Cowboy


3-Unit Play. #460. Take Minnesota Vikings -2 over LA Rams (Sunday @ 1pm est)

Give us the better defense here in Minnesota as this taem is 5th in the league on defense which includes 3rd in the league in rushing yards allowed and 9th in the league in total yards. Keenum has done a great job making sure this team rallies behind him and he will keep getting the start as long as he keeps winning which is more motivation to win here. This is the toughest defese the Rams have faced - even better than the Seahawks who they lost to 16-10 earlier this year. The Rams have scored 116 points their last 3 games and will come back down to earth this game.



3-Unit Play. #466. Take New Orleans Saints -7.5 over Washington Redskins (Sunday @ 1pm est)

The Redskins only know how to do one thing, and that is to have a let down as this team is as inconsistent as it comes. After the big win against Seattle, this team had a let down against Minnesota and they will not find it any easier facing a Saints team who is even better offensively than Minnesota and Seattle. Washington is the 20th best defense in the league and they should have plenty of issues against the Saints as the Redskins defense is 18th in passing defense as well. The Saints have covered 7 in a row, feel the Panthers chomping at their heels and the Falcons for that matter and will look to keep winning. Plus, added bonus of losing to this team 14-47 two years ago will provided added motivation. If this team can put up 47 points on Buffalo and 52 against Detroit and 34 against Carolina, imagine what they will do to a fickle Redskin defense. And, the Saints are winning more games this year because of their defensive coordinator who has made this team into the 8th best defense in the league. Saints all day.



5-Unit Play. #463. Take Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 over Cleveland Browns (Sunday @ 1pm est)

Jacksonville barely beat the Chargers in their last game but considering how well the Chargers were playing coming into that game it is an impressive win no matter how shady that game was down the stretch. This is the same team that dominated the Bengals 23-7 and there is no reason to think they can't dominate the Browns like they did the Colts for that matter 27-0. This team also only lost by 10 to the Rams which seems impressive at this point and beat the Steelers 30-9 as well as the Ravens 44-7. What makes us think that the Browns and Kizer can keep it close here against 3rd best defense in the league and #1 best passing defense in the league. The Jags are also the #1 best rushing offense in the league and this has the makings of a somewhat low scoring affair but something to the tune of 28-10 here in favor of the Jags.



3-Unit Play. #455. Take Tampa Bay Bucs +1 over Miami (Sunday @ 1pm est)

We roll with Tampa Bay once again here as they are playing relatively well with Fitzpatrick at the helm and come off a big win over the Jets and we like them to continue to play well against a rival in the Dolphins here. Tampa Bay just held a decent Jets offense to 10 points and they could have the same success or even more against a Dolphins team that is in disarray right now. Miami is 31st in the league in total offense and 32nd in the league in points scored. You have two teams that could be headed in different directions and even though the Bucs won the last game Fitzpatrick did not play well and we expect him to play much better this game and consequently lead to back to back wins for the Bucs.



3-Unit Play. #454. Take New York Giants +10.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday @ 1pm est)

We roll with the Giants here as we think this team is going through a lot of adversity right now but they can and likely do respond the right way. This is a Giants team that gets to face a very good Kansas City team here at home and it reminds us a lot of the Steelers vs. Colts game last week where the Colts showed up as a similar sized underdog a thome. And, the Coaching Staff for the Giants are coaching for their job here as they need a quality effort against a good team and in particular after they gave the Niners their first win. At the end of the day, these are all professionals who have NFL level talent and we just like this situation as this Giant team is hurt and kicked and they return home and they face a good Chiefs team and note these Giants are not too far removed from a 5 point loss to the Chargers, a 2 point loss to the Bucs and 3 point loss to the Eagles. The Chiefs have also lost 3 of 4 games and we don't think they should be laying this many points to anyone frankly. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when they face teams with a winning road record at home (meaning elite teams).

[Iceman25]

Can anyone confirm that Green Bay is Ness's insider GOY? TIA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pinnacle sports picks - Jacksonville -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg shaker

3* TRIPLE DIME NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
Minnesota -1.5

2* Giants / Kansas City over 44.5

[bmd1803]

Ken Thomson’s NFL Game of Year

3* Minnesota-130

I like both these teams a lot this season....quite frankly it's hard not to. Case Keenum knows that Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play but he doesn't need that motivation. This Vikings team will have a MAJOR EDGE because of the Home Field advantage. On a neutral field I'm not sure who I'd take but to me the Vikes have one of the top 3 Home Field advantages in the League!
I could name all the different players for both teams in a two paragraph write up but the main reason I love this game in the location. The Vikes already beat New Orleans so if they win this one and Philly drops another, Minnesota could end up with the inside track to Home Field throughout the play-offs.
This could finally be the year for the Purple & Gold but they need this one to start sealing up the NFC North. Minnesota by 7 or more!

[Istandfortheanthem]

Paul Leiner:
Sorry guys, we had 45 points scored in the first half and then Texas A&M and Ole Miss scoring came to a halt in the second. Bad call by me. Today we are going to crush the books. Thanks and goodluck.


2500* NFL Broncos -2.5
500* NFL Lions -3
100* NFL Over 42 Bucs/Dolphins
100* CBB Ohio State -9.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Halfmoon (3-4 last week - 37-31 season)

LAC -4.5
Rams +2.5
KC -10
KC/NYG Over 45
JAX -7.5
NE -6.5
DET -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV Betting Syndicate:

NFL:
Atlanta +3
philadelphia -4.5
denver -2.5
new england/oakland over 54.5
detroit -3
detroit/chicago over 40.5
green bay +2
minnesota -2

[FATMANWINS]

ferringo
7 vikes

[Can'tPickAWinner]

sky blue
Vikings
Bears
Skins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports cash system plays

Main (bet level 1) Baltimore -2

extras
(bet level 1) Denver -2 1/2
(bet level 2) New England -5
(bet level 1) Dallas -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James jones
Premium picks
Min-2.5.....2 units
Oak+7.5....3 units
Dallas+6....2 units

Syndicate picks
Giants+10...5units
Clev+7.5.....5 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

460 MIN / 459 LOS Over 45.5 Pinnacle

triple-dime bet
Analysis:


Sunday, Nov. 19th
#459-460
1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS
3*** BEST BET on: OVER THE TOTAL


We had to officially hold out on this BEST BET until Wednesday. That’s because Minnesota was going to hold off on naming their starting quarterback until Wednesday morning. As expected, we got the get that we wanted all along… and we can now officially proceed to 3* BEST BET status. If Teddy Bridgewater was named the starter, we would have considered passing in this game. Or at the very least, downgrading it to a 2* or less play. We have nothing against Bridgewater. In fact, he’s on my KEEPER Fantasy Football team and I expect great things from him in 2018 and beyond. But this play is much stronger thanks to the career resurgence of Case Keenum at QB. He is ranked as the 3rd BEST QB in the NFL in 2017 from a ‘Total QBR’ perspective of 72.6. The only guys who are ahead of Keenum are Deshaun Watson (out for the year) and Dak Prescott. He’s off his best game of the season last week against the Redskins. Keenum threw 3 TDS… had 304 passing yards… a QBR rating of 117.0… and led the 7-2 Vikings to 38 points. He’s REASON #1 that Minnesota averages 60 MORE YPG on offense compared to last year… are ranked in the Top Ten in offense… and are also scoring almost 7 PPG more than last year. And he has a little bit of an AX to GRIND against this week’s opponent. It was Keenun that was benched by the Rams last year in favor of our next quarterback. That would be 2nd-year guy Jared Goff. Another QB that’s been playing out of his mind as of late. A QB rating of 125.4 in last week’s win over Houston… and a QB rating of 146.8 two weeks ago in the big road win over the NY Giants. A game in which we cashed a pretty easy play on the OVER. After struggling last season (he went 0-7) in his rookie year, Goff was basically rebuilt overnight when new Head Coach Sean McVay came to Los Angeles. He now directs the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (32.9 ppg compared to only 14 ppg last year!). Golf’s 2385 passing yards, 16 TDS, and 101.5 QB rating (the conventional scale) all rank amongst the Top Ten in the league. During the off-season, Goff worked with QB coach and ‘guru’ Tom House. A guy who also happens to train guys named Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Nice company there!


We’ve been selective with our Ram OVERS this season, and have yet to lose a game. In Week 2, it was an OVER winner in the Rams / Redskins game. That followed with the OVER winner against Dallas (our Sept GOM)… a OVER winner vs the Jaguars… and a 3* OVER winner against the Giants. Sharp OU bettors have stayed away from Ram OVERS at home. That makes sense, given average of only 41.9 IN Los Angeles. But put the Rams on the road, and you’ve been rockin’ and rollin’ (4-1 O/U / 58.0 combined PPG). We also see that this is one of those WEST Time Zone teams traveling east and playing in a Sunday 1:00n ET early kickoff. If you’ve been following our Totals Plays in the last 5-6 years, then you already know how we feel about high-scoring results in those games. This one is NOT a ‘true’ West to East OVER candidate, but its close enough for us to see more points than expected. On the flip side, the Vikings DO indeed trend UNDER in division play (0-3 O/U THIS season / 4-16 O/U last 4 years). But teepee gone 5-1 O/U in NON-division games this season… including a perfect 4-0 O/U in their last four (vs Washington, Cleveland, Baltimore, and Tampa Bay). The average OU margin in those games has been +12.8 ppg…


Everything from the database is fast and furious. It starts with the fact that this is a NFC vs NFC game… with a low pointspread (MIN is -2.5 to -3)… with extreme SHOOTOUT potential… 36-12-1 O/U last four years and already 8-1 O/U THIS season: All GAME THREE or greater NFC non-division conference games (RAMS @ VIKINGS)… with the host favored by only 5 points or less. To tighten things up even further, we note that these games have gone an amazing 16-1 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 47 points.


Next up,we look for later-season games when both teams have very good W/L records (both LA and MIN are 7-2 SU)… 26-9-2 O/U since 1997 / 6-0 O/U last 3 years: All GAME SIX or greater .750 > teams (MIN) vs a .750 > non-division opponent (LAR).. when the OU line is > 43 points. These games have gone an amazing 16-2-1 O/U when the home team is favored by < 10 pts (Like the VIKINGS).


Last week was a good one to stay off a Rams OVER. No one could would expect the QB-challenged HoustonTexans to go toe-to-toe with the hot Rams. And they didn’t. The final score was 3 to 7… 12-6-1 O/U since 2011: All non-division teams off a SU win in which they SCORED 31 > points and ALLOWED 7 < points (RAMS). These teams have gone 8-0 O/U in the last two years.


Next up for the host Vikings is a Turkey Day THUƒRSDAY affair against the Detroit Lions..
(1) 11-1 O/U last 3 years: All non-division conference short favorite of < 4 points (VIKINGS) before a Thursday Game the next week…
(2) 12-2 O/U since 2004 / 9-1 O/U in non-division play: All NFL teams BEFORE playing the DETROIT LIONS on Thanksgiving (VIKINGS).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ncaadnb info

Fordham - Tulane

Over 133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

MONSTER NFL GAME OF THE MONTH!

3* Denver

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack

#457 baltimore -2

#467 buffalo +6

#469 cincinnati +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root (clubs weren't posted - I'd wait for confirmation)

Bears
cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* KC OVER