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Thread: Service Plays Sunday 11/19/17

  1. #21
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Can'tPickAWinner View Post
    NFAC

    NFL
    Giants +11 900
    Rams under 46 750
    Patriots over 54 600
    Added

    Giants over 45 500

  2. #22
    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Cousin Sal

    Week 11

    Jacksonville -7 1/2 ... 440/400

    Denver -2 1/2 ... 330/300

    Dallas +4 ... 330/300

    Atlanta +3 ... 550/500

    Minnesota / Rams UNDER 46 ... 1650/1500

  3. #23
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    Super Contest Top 5 Consensus ... 1-4 Last week ... 18-32 overall (36%)


    PHI -3.5 / NE -6.5 / DET -2.5 / MIN -2 / NO -7.5

  4. #24
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    Virgobbi Sports Week 10 NFL

    Chi +3 (-101)
    bal -2 (-110)
    nos -8.5 (-105)

  5. #25
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    The Prez

    4% DET -3

    When the Bears square off against pedestrian offenses they can hang tough. Put them on the turf against a team that is balanced and has explosive weapons, e.g. Detroit, and they struggle to stick with their strengths and game plan.

    While it is difficult to not like the talent of rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky he simply doesn't have the altilary to keep pace with Detroit and Stafford. The variables in this NFC North event are similiar to that of the Lions winning at Lambeau Field against Brett Hundley.




    3% WAS/NO OVER 51

    If there is one thing that coach Gruden has been able to do this season is take an offense that is limited with weapons outside of the tackles and score points. The attsmophere in the Big Easy will be offensive on Sunday. New Orleans, led by Drew Brees, and a running back tandum of Alvin Kamara and Alabama Mark will have little trouble putting points on the board. Conversely the 'Skins are a difficult matchup with their quick passing game against an uber-aggresive Saints defense.



    3% JAX/CLE UNDER 37.5

    The Cleveland medical team should be ready to examine rookie QB DeShone Kizer after each possession in Sunday's contest against Sacksonville. This contest will not come close to resembling last week's 38-24 contest against Detroit.

    The winless Browns are facing a defense that is allowing less than 15 points per game and are led by the pedestrian ability of QB Blake Bortles.



    3% TAM/MIA UNDER 41

    Injuries have caught up with this Bucs team that was originally scheduled to be on a bye week. But due to Hurricane Irma and a rainy fall season in Florida the club was forced to make this game up.
    In defense of the Bucs the Hurricane mess for Fla teams created more issues for Tampa than anything this year. Last week the team performed admirably on defense getting a much needed win over the Jets but offensively both of these teams are morbid. As long as Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't throw passes to the Dolphins defense then the final score in this contest will result in a field goal contest between the two kickers.


    4% BUF/LAC UNDER 44

    The Bills have shown their true colors the last two weeks, especially on offense, and with quarterback issues in Buffalo and Los Angeles veteran Phil Rivers having taken one too many hits a week ago expect both of these coaches to be running the football, even in passing situations.

    The Chargers played their way out of any postseason hopes last week with a 20-17 OT loss at Jacksonville The Bills have experienced to beatdowns, losses by double-digits, the past two weekends.

    While Rivers hands the ball off a large number of times on Sunday the Bills will ask their quarterback to do the same, and be it Nathan Peterman or Tyrod Taylor, the same applies to the Bills as they rush the ball for a season high versus the overly aggressive Chargers front seven


    4% NE/OKL OVER 52.5

    If you see anything in this west coast affair that resembles defense use your smart phone and get film evidence. Look for both offenses to play uptempo in the altitude, at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City on Sunday, attempting to take advantage defensive effeciencies on both teams.

    Brady is faced with a defense that might well allow him to earn his second straight AFC Offensive Player of the Week award. Brady threw for 266 yards and three scores in the destruction of the Broncos defense.

    Carr is finally 100 percent again and using his weapons to put points on the board. Carr has thrown for 1,030 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions, in the past few weeks and Marshawn Lynch is looking forward to gutting it out up the middle of the Pats soft front seven.

    The Raiders have attempted to be softer in the secondary and less aggressive with their blitz scheme which has prevented rush specialist Khalil Mack from finding room to get to the quarterback. He has a mere half-sack over the past five games.



  6. #26
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    Randall the handle
    BEST BETS

    Rams (7-2) at Vikings (7-2)
    LINE: MINNESOTA by 2½
    We believe one squad holds the best hand while the other could be bluffing. The Rams have taken the league by storm with previously maligned QB Jared Goff catapulting his offence to the top scoring unit in the league, averaging nearly 33 points per game. Los Angeles’ defence keeps improving under the astute guidance of defensive guru Wade Philips. The Rams have quietly allowed the third fewest points per game with no opponents reaching 18 points in L.A.’s past five games. Add the talents of RB Todd Gurley and the Rams are the real deal. The Vikings are on a roll of their own, winning four straight, but we still have some doubts. Five of Minny’s seven wins have come against losing teams. The other two wins were against the Saints on opening week and versus a Brett Hundley-led Green Bay squad. Against winners Pittsburgh and Detroit, the Purple Gang lost 26-9 and 14-7 respectively. QB Case Keenum scares no one, especially not the team he threw nine touchdowns compared to 11 interceptions for a year ago.
    TAKING: RAMS +2½

    Lions (5-4) at Bears (3-6)
    LINE: DETROIT by 3
    Most will be down on the Bears after failing to win and cover at home last week to undermanned Green Bay. Conversely, Detroit has won consecutive games including a victory two weeks ago against the same Packers squad. The market place demands that Detroit is favoured here, but that’s how value is created and we believe it belongs with the home team. The Leos can be exciting to watch, but they rank significantly lower than their hosts today in nearly every defensive category. Most notably is Detroit’s 22nd-place ranking in total yards allowed compared to Chicago’s ninth-place position. The Lions are also in a vulnerable spot as they must suit up again on Thursday for their annual Thanksgiving Day game when they’ll host a big showdown with first-place Minnesota. Detroit has managed just three covers in past 12 prior to their holiday game. Bears have already taken down Steelers and Panthers on this field. They can certainly handle these guys.
    TAKING: BEARS +3
    Bengals (3-6) at Broncos (3-6)
    LINE: DENVER by 2½
    Let’s do some comparison shopping here. Less than a month ago, the Broncos and Jaguars shared equal 3-3 records. Both teams have good defences, wretched quarterbacks and a player or two that can be an offensive threat. Skip ahead to today where Denver is 3-6 while Jacksonville is 6-3. How did this happen to two similar squads? Here’s how. The Jaguars faced the Colts (3-7) before home wins against the Bengals (3-6) and Chargers (3-6) respectively. Meantime, the Broncos were seven-point underdogs in three successive games, all defeats, when they played at Kansas City (6-3), at Philadelphia (8-1) and home to the Patriots (7-2). Our guess is that if you switched schedules these past three games, we’d be looking at a flip-flop in records between the Jags and Broncos. Enter the Bengals into our fray. As mentioned, they got spanked 23-7 at Jacksonville as a 5½-point underdog. Shouldn’t this pointspread be at least the same as that one? Denver is home against a lame Cincinnati team, spotting less than a field goal. We’ll gladly jump on that.
    TAKING: BRONCOS -2½
    THE REST
    Chiefs (6-3) at Giants (1-8)
    LINE: KANSAS CITY by 10½
    Most teams look forward to Sundays. The Giants dread them. It’s a season lost for the G-Men and changes await, most likely with coach Ben McAdoo being the first to go. In the meantime, there are games to play. To make a convincing case for the Giants here would just sound foolish. So we turn to the line. Double-digit road favourites are a path to the poor house, no matter how big a discrepancy there might be in talent (see: Steelers/Colts last week), having covered just eight times in their past 24 attempts when the road team is spotting 10 or more. Let’s also not ignore that the Chiefs had lost three of four prior to their bye and still could be sluggish as they return to the field, especially against an uninspiring opponent.
    TAKING: GIANTS +1
    LINE: MIAMI Even
    At least Miami isn’t in prime time this week. While the Fish have been as lackluster as is humanly possible, this price still feels cheap when just needing a win to earn a cover. These are the hapless Bucs visiting and not only have they struggled all season long, they arrive here with Ryan Fitzpatrick as their quarterback. Fitzpatrick was able to lead the team to a 15-10 yawner over the Jets last week, but that one had Tampa as the home underdog to the subpar New York club. Prior to that victory, the Bucs had dropped five straight while failing to cover in six consecutive games, including a home contest to the Giants. Fitzpatrick is commonly a disaster waiting to happen and his side cannot be considered when priced in this range as a visitor.
    TAKING: DOLPHINS Even
    Ravens (4-5) at Packers (5-4)
    LINE: BALTIMORE by 2
    What if the Packers win here to get to 6-4 and do the same to Cleveland and Tampa in two of next three games before Aaron Rodgers possibly returns around Christmas with a playoff spot being achievable? Point being, Green Bay is not throwing in the towel just yet. They found a bit of a rhythm last week with a win at Chicago after the coaching staff loosened the leash on young QB Brett Hundley as he threw wisely while utilizing the clock well. Same approach should work against lame Ravens, a team void of offensive aptitude with its 32nd-ranked passing game. Baltimore had covered just three of past 11 when leaving home and while there is no Rodgers to contend with, the Ravens hardly warrant being a road fave at Lambeau.
    TAKING: PACKERS +2
    Cardinals (4-5) at Texans (3-6)
    LINE: HOUSTON by 1
    Blaine Gabbert vs. Tom Savage. Lovely. Since we must make a selection, we can only go one way as no sane individual can take Savage as a favourite, no matter how small the pointspread. The inexperienced backup was responsible for four turnovers last week with two interceptions and two fumbles in his team’s 33-7 thumping at the Rams. Seems Gabbert will likely replace an injured Drew Stanton for Arizona with the disparity between those two being minimal, unlike Houston’s colossal step down from Deshaun Watson to Savage. The mental frame of the Texans has suffered since losing their dynamic young pivot and a rested Arizona team returning to the field after 10 days’ rest should have enough to take care of its demoralized host.
    TAKING: CARDINALS +1
    Jaguars (6-3) at Browns (0-9)
    LINE: JACKSONVILLE by 7½
    There are few consistent teams in the NFL. One team that you can’t count on from week to week are the Browns. Winless in nine tries so far, this bumbling squad finds unique ways not only to lose, but also to fail at covering spreads. It is extremely difficult to suggest wagering legal tender on this squad. It would take a rare situation to spot this many road points with the Jaguars, a team that will not only be a road fave for just the second time in its past 45 away games, but is being asked to win by more than a touchdown to earn a cover. Risky, we know, but the Browns are that unreliable while the Jags have won three straight and can ill afford to take their foot off the gas pedal as they battle the Titans for the AFC South.
    TAKING: JAGUARS –7½
    Redskins (4-5) at Saints (7-2)
    LINE: NEW ORLEANS by 8
    Tough to fade a Saints team that is clicking on all cylinders like this group is, but with such success comes inflated lines. Public perception and tendencies are a key element for the guys making the lines and with New Orleans on a current seven-game win streak, few have the courage to oppose them especially against a visitor that has dropped three of four as the Redskins have. However, if we look at Washington’s recent sked, we find its past four games were against top NFC contenders Philadelphia, Dallas, Seattle and Minnesota. Only once in that set were the ’Skins receiving this many points and that was when they were +8 at Seattle before covering in a tightly fought 17-14 loss. We also catch the Saints in a dangerous spot after glowing in a 47-10 blowout of Buffalo last week and with next two opponents being the Rams and Falcons.
    TAKING: REDSKINS +8
    Bills (5-4) at Chargers (3-6)
    LINE: LA CHARGERS by 4
    Strange one here. When lines came out, the Chargers were listed as a 4-point favourite. Then it was announced that rookie QB Nathan Peterson would start for Buffalo in place of Tyrod Taylor. But the line never moved. While Taylor isn’t among the elite throwers in this league, he certainly has to be worth more than a rookie quarterback. Peterman looked comfortable in New Orleans last week when he replaced Taylor, but that was in a mop-up situation after the Bills fell miles behind the Saints. The Chargers have an unheralded pass defence, currently ranking sixth overall and we don’t see how a first time starter on a team that is undermanned offensively can compete here. Expect Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to make Peterman’s debut a miserable one and for the Bolts to take care of business rather easily.
    TAKING: CHARGERS –4
    Patriots (7-2) vs. Raiders (4-5) at Mexico City, Mexico
    LINE: NEW ENGLAND by 7
    We think New England would have been a six-point fave in Oakland. So how are the Patriots only -7 at a neutral site? These are two teams headed in opposite directions with the Raiders dropping five of previous seven while the Pats have won seven of last eight. While New England’s defence struggled at the start of the season, perhaps attributed to some new faces acclimating to the champs’ methods, the Patriots have not allowed more than 17 points to any opponent during the past five games. Meanwhile, Oakland ranks in the low to mid 20s in nearly all defensive categories and with a 22nd-ranked offence (by yardage per game), it is difficult for the Raiders to compete with top clubs such as this one. Oakland has just one cover in previous seven away and hardly figure to change that around versus today’s strong opponent.
    TAKING: PATRIOTS –7
    Eagles (8-1) at Cowboys (5-4)
    LINE: PHILADELPHIA by 4
    The Eagles are soaring while the Cowboys are suddenly losing altitude with the latter immediately feeling the effects of star runner Ezekiel Elliott’s absence after losing 27-7 to Atlanta last week. Even so, we are not inclined to be giving these points away in such a pivotal game for host Dallas. This is a divisional battle on a big stage. The Cowboys could have been distracted last week as they glanced ahead to this one. We’re not going to knock the Eagles. They are good on both sides of the ball and they arrive here rested. We are simply going to respond to the pointspread which has the public spotting this price like they know the result. Dallas will fight to the end and there is enough room for them to cover through the back door should that situation arise.
    TAKING: COWBOYS +4
    Falcons (5-4) at Seahawks (6-3)
    LINE: SEATTLE by 3
    Falcons could be regaining their mojo after a 27-7 thumping of the Cowboys last week. It may also help that Seattle QB Russell Wilson is being observed for concussion issues as the crafty QB has his team ranked second overall in the passing game at 267 per game. Additionally, Seattle suffered a huge injury on defence when CB Richard Sherman was lost for the season in his team’s win over Arizona last Thursday. Despite the home team’s issues, prefer that side to an Atlanta team that has just one road cover this season when slipping by the Lions 30-26 as a 3-point road favourite. As visitors, the Falcons were only able to muster up 24 points when visiting New England and Carolina respectively. This trip provides similar competition and until we see a continuous improvement by the Birds, we’ll fade them at this bargain price.
    TAKING: SEAHAWKS –3

  7. #27
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    HANK GOLDBERG

    kc -10.5
    washington +7.5
    denver -2.5
    new england -6.5
    eagles -3.5

  8. #28
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    RJ WHITE


    kc over 45.5
    buffalo +4.5
    philadelphia -3
    houston +2
    chicago under 42.5
    seattle under 45
    buffalo under 42.5
    green bay over 38
    tampa over 41.5
    cleveland +7.5
    baltimore -2
    minnesota -2.5
    tampa bay pk
    new england -7

  9. #29
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    STEPHEN OH

    new england -6.5
    detroit -3
    oakland under 54.5

  10. #30
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    MIKE TIERNEY

    seattle over 45
    detroit -3
    new england under 54.5
    chargers -4.5
    miami pick

  11. #31
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    MICAH ROBERTS

    dallas +4
    new england -6.5
    rams +2.5
    chargers -5.5

  12. #32
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    LARRY HARTSTEIN

    new england -7
    minnesota -2.5
    chicago +3
    kc over 44
    kc -10
    houston -2
    baltimore -2

  13. #33
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    JOSH NAGEL

    Atlanta +3

  14. #34
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    GALIN DRAGIEV

    Seattle under 45

  15. #35
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    DAVE RICHARDS


    DENVER MONEY LINE

  16. #36
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    EMORY HUNT


    cleveland +7.5
    bengals money line
    dallas +3
    seattle -3
    new orleans -7.5
    new england -6.5

  17. #37
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    Brian Blessing

    Cleveland +8

  18. #38
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    HUMBOLDT SPORTS

    Arizona over 37

  19. #39
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    HOLLYWOOD SPORTS

    buffalo +6
    denver money line

  20. #40
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    Rockys

    Steam lock

    Denver money line

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