Thursday 11-23-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Portland State vs. Duke Preview and Predictions

Top-ranked Duke looks like it's ready to turn things up to 100 at the PK80. The Blue Devils look to build on a 29-point rout of Furman in the opening round of the Phil Knight Invitational as they travel to Portland, Ore., for a date with Portland State.

After rolling to four consecutive home victories - each coming by at least 17 points - Duke leaves the comfortable confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium with its sights on winning the event held in honor of Nike founder Phil Knight's 80th birthday. Marvin Bagley III poured in 11 of his 24 points in a 2 1/2-minute stretch of the first half to lead the Blue Devils in their 92-63 triumph over Furman; he said afterward: "It was just a time in the game when I was hitting, my teammates kept finding me. They kept coming back to me, they believed in me enough to keep going and keep pushing, and I just executed on the plays we were running." Duke likely won't be tested by Portland State, despite the Vikings also coming in unbeaten. Bryce Canda and Michael Mayhew had 17 points each as Portland State edged Utah State 83-79 last time out.

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT PORTLAND STATE (4-0): Canda has been the Vikings' best all-around player through the first four games of the season, leading the way in scoring (17.5 points per game), rebounding (8.0) and steals (3.3) while adding a team-high 11 3-pointers. But Canda is shooting an inconceivable 35.7 percent from the free-throw line after connecting on 79.2 of his attempts as a freshman. Foul shooting has been a team-wide problem to date, with Portland State shooting just 57.7 percent from the line - ranking the Vikings 336th out of 351 teams in Division I.

ABOUT DUKE (5-0): Bagley is looking every bit the part of a top prospect, having scored 24 points or more in three of his first five games in a Blue Devils jersey; he joins Jabari Parker and Johnny Dawkins as the only Duke freshmen with three 20-point efforts in their first five outings. Fellow first-year player Trevon Duval has been nearly as impressive, entering Thursday ranked third in the nation in assists (38) while boasting a 5.4 assist-to-turnover ratio. Yet, like Portland State, Duke could use some work on its free-throw shooting, entering the non-campus portion of the PK80 ranked 323rd at 61.7 percent.

TIP-INS

1. Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski has 199 career victories with Duke as the top-ranked team in the nation.

2. The Blue Devils will face either Butler or Texas in the second round of this event.

3. Duke's 44.3 percent offensive rebound rate against FBS teams ranks second in the country.

PREDICTION: Duke 89, Portland State 63

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arkansas vs. Oklahoma Preview and Predictions

A pair of unbeaten teams go head-to-head in a marquee matchup when Arkansas and Oklahoma square off Thursday in the first round of the PK80 tournament in Portland, Ore. The tournament honoring Nike co-founder Phil Knight's 80th birthday features two eight-team brackets.



The scoreboard should get a workout in this matchup, as the Sooners lead the nation with an average of 108 points per game while Arkansas is 18th at 93 points. Oklahoma has been dominant in its first two games, outscoring Omaha and Ball State by an average of 29 points while shooting 56.3 percent. The Razorbacks also have a pair of lopsided wins to their credit, and they're coming off an 83-75 home triumph over Fresno State on Friday that ran their record to 3-0. Oklahoma has won seven of the last 10 meetings, but Arkansas leads the all-time series 15-12 and is 4-0 in neutral-site games against the Sooners.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN2



ABOUT ARKANSAS (3-0): The Razorbacks have a quartet of players who average double digits in points, with Jaylen Barford (20.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists) leading the way. Barford, Daryl Macon (16 points, 4.3 assists) and Anton Beard (13.3 points) give the team a trio of seniors who start in the backcourt, while 6-11 freshman Daniel Gafford (16.7 points, five rebounds) has made an impact coming off the bench. Coach Mike Anderson's teams also wreak havoc on defense, and this season has been no different thus far as the Razorbacks are forcing 17.7 turnovers per contest.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (2-0): The Sooners have one of the nation's best freshmen in home-grown point guard Trae Young, who leads the team with 18.5 points per game and tops the nation with an average of 11.5 assists. Fellow freshman Brady Manek (13.5 points) and senior forward Khadeem Lattin (14, 7.5 rebounds) give the team a pair of capable post players to complement Young. Junior guard Christian James (13.5 points) also is off to a great start after averaging 7.9 points last season.



TIP-INS

1. Young is the first Sooner to record consecutive point-assist double-doubles since John Ontjes in the 1994-95 season.

2. Arkansas has outscored its first three opponents by 64 points in the first half.

3. Macon is 8-for-8 from the foul line this season and has made 15 straight free throws dating to last campaign's NCAA Tournament.



PREDICTION: Oklahoma 85, Arkansas 82

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Xavier vs. George Washington Preview and Predictions

Fourteenth-ranked Xavier won the Advocare Invitational in 2015-16 and the Tire Pros Invitational last season. The Muskeeters will try to win a holiday tournament for a third straight year when it faces old Atlantic 10 Conference rival George Washington on Thursday in the semifinals of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas.

"I want to win a trophy," senior forward Sean O'Mara said after the visiting Musketeers crushed Hampton, 96-60, on Monday night. "What am I? Three-for-four in Thanksgiving tournaments if we can get this done, so that's definitely a goal of mine." Xavier is 6-0 over the last two tournaments but just needs to go 2-0 this time around. The winner plays the winner of Thursday night's other semifinal between Arizona State and Kansas State on Friday afternoon for the championship.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, FS1

ABOUT XAVIER (4-0): The Muskeeters return three starters from a team that went 24-14 and advanced all the way to the Elite Eight a year ago. Senior guard Trevon Bluiett is a national player of the year candidate who is averaging 24.3 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists and earned Big East Player of the Week honors after scoring 25 points and pulling down nine rebounds in Xavier's 80-70 victory at Wisconsin last week. Senior guard J. P. Macura, the only Musketeer to start every game last season, is second in scoring (13.5) and assists (4.3) and leads the team in steals (2.3) while forwards Tyrique Jones (12.5 points) and Kaiser Gates (11.3) also are averaging in double figures.

ABOUT GEORGE WASHINGTON (2-2): The Colonials return five players who started 10 or more games last season on a squad that finished 20-15 and advanced to the second round of the College Basketball Invitational. Senior guard Yuta Watanabe, a 6-8 native of Kagawa, Japan, leads the team in scoring (13.5), rebounding (9.3), blocks (4.5) and free throw percentage (10-of-11, 90.9 percent). Sophomore guard Jair Bolden (13.3 points) and senior forward Patrick Steeves (12.8) also are averaging in double figures with Bolden also averaging a team best 4.0 assists.

TIP-INS

1. Xavier leads the Big East and ranks fifth nationally in field goal percentage at 56.8 percent.

2. Bluiett, a two-time first team All-Big East pick, has scored at least 21 points in each of the first four games.

3. Bluiett (1,682) and Macura (1,108) have combined for 2,790 points so far in their careers.

PREDICTION: Xavier 94, George Washington 66

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Central Florida vs. Nebraska Preview and Predictions

Isaac Copeland gave Nebraska a glimpse of what he could provide last time out and the Georgetown transfer hopes for more of the same when the Cornhuskers take on Central Florida on Thursday in the first round of the Advocare Invitational at Lake Buena Vista, Fla. Copeland, who had back surgery nine months ago, scored 30 points Sunday in the 92-70 victory over North Dakota.

"He's been doing this his whole life," Nebraska senior guard Anton Gill said of Copeland, who averaged 11.1 points in 2015-16 at Georgetown. "I've known him forever. This is him. This is what we expected." Copeland had just 21 points in the first three games of the season combined, including five in the Cornhuskers' only loss to St. John's, and will need another big effort against an unbeaten UCF team that has allowed 37.1 percent shooting. The Knights have knocked off Mercer, Gardner-Webb and William & Mary despite injury issues and can start the season 4-0 for the first time since 2010-11 on Thursday just a short ride from their campus. "On the defensive end, we're doing a good job of holding guys' field goal percentage to a low level, but we could be better," UCF coach Johnny Dawkins told reporters. "I think our guys realize that too. A lot of times we give up too many easy baskets and we're not as focused as we should be."

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPN3

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (3-0): The Knights have been without first-team All-American Athletic Conference preseason pick B.J. Taylor (broken foot) for the last two games, but 7-6 junior center Tacko Fall made his season debut with 13 points in the 75-64 victory over William & Mary on Saturday. Senior forward A.J. Davis has gotten off to a strong start, averaging 13.3 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks. Davis shares the team scoring lead with sophomore guard Chance McSpadden, who is shooting 50 percent from the field overall and recorded a season-high 18 points on Saturday.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (3-1): The Cornhuskers have been quite balanced overall with six players averaging double figures in scoring, led by junior guard Glynn Watson Jr. at 13.5 points per contest. Miami (Fla.) transfer James Palmer Jr. and Copeland are next at 12.8 while Gill, who came over from Louisville last season, has averaged 11.5 in his first two games of 2017-18. Sophomore forward Isaiah Roby has also made quite an impact in the early going, averaging 10.3 points with team-highs of 7.5 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in 22.3 minutes per game.

TIP-INS

1. UCF freshman G Ceasar DeJesus, averaging 11.7 points and 2.3 steals, was named AAC rookie of the week Monday.

2. Nebraska is shooting just 40.5 percent from the field overall and 30.4 from behind the 3-point arc.

3. Fall registered 164 blocks in his first two seasons with the Knights and swatted one in his 2017-18 debut Saturday.

PREDICTION: Nebraska 72, Central Florida 68

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Seton Hall vs. Rhode Island Preview and Predictions

No. 22 Seton Hall expected big things after returning 90 percent of its scoring and rebounding from a team that won 21 games last season, and the Pirates open the NIT Season Tip-Off Thursday in Brooklyn, N.Y., against Rhode Island unbeaten in four games. A trio of Pirates lead the charge offensively as Khadeen Carrington, Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez each have surpassed 1,000 career points, and several reserves played well in Saturday's 82-53 victory over New Jersey Tech.

"The other guys gave us a lot of energy," Rodriguez told reporters after scoring 19 points in the victory. "Our starters were sluggish today and they came and picked us up and ran up the score." The Rams have won two of their first three games, rebounding from a loss to Nevada to defeat Holy Cross 88-66 on Sunday. Andre Berry scored a career-high 20 points in the victory and Rhode Island played solidly, recording 22 assists and 13 steals with only nine turnovers. "Any win that we get this year - and hopefully, there are going to be a lot of them - is a great win," Rhode Island coach Dan Hurley told the media afterward.

TV: 6 p.m. ET, ESPNU

ABOUT SETON HALL (4-0): Rodriguez leads the Pirates in scoring at 17 points per game, helping to lead an offense scoring 82.8 points per contest. Delgado, who averaged 13.1 rebounds per game last season, is averaging 12.8 points and 8.5 rebounds through four games. Carrington, who led the Pirates in scoring at 17.1 points per game last season, has made a smooth transition to point guard, averaging 5.3 assists and 1.5 steals to go with 12 points per game.

ABOUT RHODE ISLAND (2-1): The Rams are averaging 84.3 points per game so far, using a four-guard starting lineup to push the tempo. Jared Terrell equaled his career high with 25 points against Holy Cross and has scored 49 points in his past two games after being held to six points in the season opener. That guard play is important with E.C. Matthews, who has scored 1,547 career points, sidelined for six weeks with a fractured wrist.

TIP-INS

1. Rhode Island has forced an average of 19.3 turnovers per game and has caused at least 14 turnovers in every game so far this season.

2. Seton Hall freshman F Sandro Mamukelashvili blocked four shots against NJIT, finishing with 11 points and nine rebounds off the bench.

3. Thursday's winner faces either Vanderbilt or Virginia on Friday.

PREDICTION: Seton Hall 81, Rhode Island 76

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL opening line report: Patriots open Week 12 as biggest betting favorites of the season
Patrick Everson

“It really doesn’t matter who’s under center for Miami in this game, it had to be the biggest spread of the season. Not sure what else to say here. It’s going to be ugly.”

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with a trio of Thanksgiving Day games, although only one of those matchups appears to be worth pulling you away from the kitchen or the dining room table. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for that contest and three others this week, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (pick)

Minnesota continues to get it done on the field and at the betting window, winning six in a row while cashing in the last five. The Vikings (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) pulled away from the Los Angeles Rams in the second half Sunday, nabbing a 24-7 victory as a 1-point home favorite.

Detroit (6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) followed a three-game skid with a three-game win streak (2-0-1 ATS), though it was a struggle to get that last one. The Lions went to Chicago as a 3-point chalk and twice trailed by 10, but rallied for a 27-24 victory.

Bookmaker.eu opened the game pick ‘em, but the Vikings moved to -1.5 late Sunday night for the first game on Turkey Day, a 12:30 p.m. ET kickoff.

“The Lions can’t afford to fall behind here, as they seemingly do week after week,” Cooley said. “Minnesota has proven to be one of the best teams in the NFC, but Detroit is a quality club as well. It feels like the public will be on the chalk, but sharps may side with the home squad. We’ll just wait and see where this one goes.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

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MINNESOTA (8 - 2) at DETROIT (6 - 4) - 11/23/2017, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 30-13 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 132-172 ATS (-57.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LA CHARGERS (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/23/2017, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA CHARGERS is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY GIANTS (2 - 8) at WASHINGTON (4 - 6) - 11/23/2017, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 37-63 ATS (-32.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 34-58 ATS (-29.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 31-52 ATS (-26.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 59-93 ATS (-43.3 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 84-116 ATS (-43.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 22-46 ATS (-28.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 2-2 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 2-2 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 12

Trend Report

Thursday, November 23

MINNESOTA @ DETROIT
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games

LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Dallas is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Dallas is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
NY Giants is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against NY Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 12

Thursday's games
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4)— Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.

Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)— Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.

Giants (2-8) @ Redskins (4-6)— Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

Thursday, November 23

Minnesota @ Detroit

Game 107-108
November 23, 2017 @ 12:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
142.010
Detroit
136.535
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 5 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 2 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-2 1/2); Under

LA Chargers @ Dallas

Game 109-110
November 23, 2017 @ 4:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
136.668
Dallas
132.141
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 4 1/2
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2
47
Dunkel Pick:
LA Chargers
(-2); Over

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 111-112
November 23, 2017 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
130.670
Washington
131.653
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 1
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 7 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+7 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 12

Thursday's games
Vikings (8-2) @ Lions (6-4)— Detroit won/covered its last four Thanksgiving games; Lions won their last three games overall, scoring 31.7 ppg- they’re 2-3 SU at home. Since 2011, Detroit is 2-8-1 vs spread as a home underdog. Minnesota’s last loss was 14-7 home setback to Detroit in Week 4; they were -3 in turnovers, but outgained Detroit 284-251. Vikings won their last six games, covered last five- they’re 2-1 on road, with only loss at Pittsburgh. Lions were +3 in turnovers- their only TD drive was 29 yards. Detroit won last three series games and five of last seven- average total in last three meetings: 29.3. Three of last four Minnesota games, five of Lions’ last six games went over. Dogs are 4-1 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year.

Chargers (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)— Dallas lost last two games 27-7/37-9, allowing 12 sacks with LT Smith hurt- check status here. Cowboys lost three of their last four home games- they’re 2-2 as a home favorite this year. Chargers covered five of last six games; they’re 2-3 on road, 4-1 vs spread as a road underdog. In its last five games, LA is +10 in turnovers- they didn’t get inside opponents’ 20-yard line in either of last two road games. Dallas is 6-4 in this series, but Chargers won three of last four meetings, winning 32-21/20-17 in last two visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Last three Dallas games stayed under total, as have four of last five Charger games.

Giants (2-8) @ Redskins (4-6)— Washington lost four of its last five games; they blew a 31-16 lead with 3:10 left in Superdome LW, lost in OT. Redskins are 2-3 at home, 0-1 as a home favorite- their last win by more than three points was in Week 3. Giants are 2-3 in their last five games after an 0-5 start; they’re 3-1 vs spread as road underdogs this year- dogs covered four of their five road games. In their last four games, Big Blue was outscored 65-21 in second half. Giants won six of last eight games with Redskins, winning three of last four visits here. Favorites are 4-1 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season. Over is 5-1 in last six Washington games, 5-3 in last eight Giant games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential Week 12 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Thanksgiving Day games

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

The Vikings didn’t look like world beaters when the Lions pushed them out to sea in a 14-7 loss at home in Week 4. But since that setback, Minnesota has won six in a row and covered in five straight games.

The Purple People Eaters are the only team to rank inside the top five in total offense and total defense – and that’s without their preseason first choices at quarterback and running back on the active roster.

The Lions are 3-0 straight up and 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games, but there is one weakness that seems to be getting worse by the week. Detroit gave up 222 yards on the ground to the Bears on Sunday – making it back-to-back outings with opponents rushing for over 200 yards against the club.

The Lions are missing their run-stuffing defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. The defense allowed just 74.6 rushing yards per game in the five contests with Ngata and 153.8 in the five games without him.

LINE HISTORY: Lots of movement on this line. Many books opened with the Lions giving a point but the spread has moved four points with the Lions now getting 3 points at home. The total is holding at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Vikings.
*The Lions are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against teams with winning records.
*The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. NFC North opponents.
*The Lions are 5-0 ATS in the last five Thanksgiving Day games.


Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 47.5)

All of NFL Twitter is still chuckling at the Bills' decision to start Nathan Peterman against the Chargers, but there should be some credit being given to the Chargers’ pass defense. Los Angeles owns the league’s eighth best passing D and the club allows only 1.2 passing TDs per game. The Bolts are third in sacks per game and they’ve picked off opposing quarterback seven times in their last two games.

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is coming off a career-worst, three-pick performance on Sunday night against the Philadelphia Eagles. The good news for Dallas backers is that Prescott's blindside should be well protected against the Chargers pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram because All-Pro left tackle Tyron Smith is expected to make his return from a two-game absence.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 2.5-point favorites but the Bolts are now 1-point road chalk. There hasn’t been as much movement on the total. Most shops are all dealing 47.5.

TRENDS:

*The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS in the last six years on Thanksgiving Day.
*The Chargers 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
*The under is 6-2 in the Chargers’ last eight road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.


New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 45)

The Redskins blew a 15-point, fourth-quarter lead with less than three minutes to play at New Orleans on Sunday. The game turned against Washington backers when their team failed to pick up a first down on a third-and-one play with 2:36 left to go and the Saints without any timeouts remaining. The Redskins would have been able to ice the game had they picked up the first down.

Struggling on third and short isn’t out of character for Washington. The squad ranks 26th in the league when trying to pick up a first down on third and one situations. They average negative .43 yards before contact in those spots according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Giants are coming off an outright win as double-digit dogs against Kansas City last week. Head coach Ben McAdoo got a lot more creative with his play calling in the game by calling the first fake punt in 13 years for the G-Men according to the New York Post. The Giants also had running back Shane Vereen try a pass on a halfback option and threw defensive tackle Robert Thomas in as a fullback on a goal line play. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

LINE HISTORY: The books opened with Washington as 7.5-point home faves and that’s where it stands now although there are a few shops dealing -7 with a little extra juice. The total is holding steady at 44.5.

TRENDS:

*The Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
*The over is 24-7 in Washington’s last 31 games overall.
*The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 games between these two divisional rivals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Thanksgiving Day lines that make you go hmmm...
Peter Korner

The Redskins are giving 7.5 points to the Giants on Thanksgiving but this Las Vegas oddsmaker thinks the spread should be closer to Washington -9.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

This game actually opened up at Detroit -1 at some offshore sportsbooks. That was quickly corrected by the betting public to where the Vikings are now 3-point favorites. I made Minnesota a 1.5-point favorite with the understanding that public perception says Minnesota should be favored, but by the end of the week, the home dog will certainly be attracting money.

Minnesota seems almost flawless after a dominating performance in Week 11. This team has been playing very well throughout the season and is currently riding a six-game win streak. The key for the Vikings has been their defense - no doubt – and adding to that, there should be some hype in the Vikings locker room regarding the revenge factor and avenging one of just two losses to date.

Detroit has been winning as well and played a tough defensive-minded Chicago team this past week and still racked up 27 points. My gut tells me the Lions will be hungry for the upset and being the home dog may supersede Minnesota’s revenge factor. The last four Thanksgivings have been beneficial to the Lions, winning four straight, and I suspect that money will follow them as we get closer to kickoff.

I think the value is in taking the Lions with as many points as you can. Don’t be surprised if they are the aggressors in this one.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (PK, 48)

This one landed on Dallas as a 3.5- point favorite for a split second and has since seen an avalanche of early money on the Chargers, moving this to a pick’em as of this writing. I personally made this Dallas -3 so I agree with the offshores on this one. This one-sided betting is largely due to the public’s short memory and recall. They obviously remember L.A.’s big win over Buffalo and couple opinion that with Philadelphia cluster bombing of the Cowboys Sunday night.

I’m not impressed with Los Angeles’ road results. The two wins were against now recognized bad teams in Oakland and the N.Y. Giants. And although they did rack up some noteworthy points against Buffalo, we all know that was against a first-time starter who threw five interceptions.

The Cowboys had won three in a row against teams on par with the Chargers before they lost twice in the past two weeks to top-tier teams in Atlanta and Philadelphia. This is a must-win game for Dallas, which needs a big victory on national TV to get in position for a playoff run with six weeks to go. I think the emotions will be with Dallas and with the spread at a pick, there’s good value on the home team.

I see this heading back up on Dallas, so grab the low number while you can early in the week.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44)

After watching Washington play some impressive football at New Orleans, only to fold in the fourth quarter, it made me recheck the Redskins’ poor record. What I found was a reasonable explanation: they have played a brutal schedule where losses have come to the hands of Philadelphia twice, a good early Kansas City team, Dallas, Minnesota and New Orleans. The last two losses were very competitive.

After analyzing that information, I made this Washington -9. What helps the value here is the Giants’ win over a nose-diving Chiefs team this past weekend. I think a loss there would have seen the opening spread closer to my own number. The Giants are going nowhere and can’t be expected to be emotionally in this game. It’s basically do-or-die for the Hogs, who can ill afford another loss if they expect to stay in the playoff hunt.

The Giants broke through for their second win of the season and it’s improbable that they can win two games in a row let alone that it will be on the road. Seven points is a tough number to overcome, but a glance at the New York offense suggests they can’t muster too many points.

Their recent past has seen a downward trend of offense the past four weeks. They’ve lost three of their past four games and their offense is averaging less than 14 points per contest. The way Washington’s offense has played the past two weeks against respectable teams (scoring 30 and 31 points), I just don’t see where the Giants can keep pace.

Though it’s a big number, the value at this level is on Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Thanksgiving Day edition
Monty Andrews

The Vikings will look to extend their hot streak on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+1.5, 44.5)

Vikings' vaunted run defense vs. Lions' limp ground game

The Detroit Lions playing on Thanksgiving is an NFL tradition - and this year's game carries added significance as the Lions look to keep pace with the first-place Minnesota Vikings in an NFL North showdown. The Lions have won three consecutive games but have yet to slice into Minnesota's two-game lead, as the Vikings have reeled off six wins in a row. They'll look to extend that hot streak further on the strength of a sensational run defense - one that could cause Detroit serious problems.

While a surprisingly balanced offense led by quarterback Case Keenum has been a factor in the Vikings' rise to the top of the NFC power rankings - alongside the Philadelphia Eagles, of course - it's that vaunted defense that has played the biggest role. Minnesota has allowed more than 17 points just once during the streak, and held one of the league's most formidable attacks at bay last weekend, using a big fourth quarter to subdue the Los Angeles Rams 24-7.

Minnesota squashed the Rams' running game from the start, limiting Todd Gurley and Co. to 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. That has been the trademark of the Vikings' 2017 resurgence - they rank in the top three league-wide in average rushing yards against (77.7), yards per carry allowed (3.3) and fewest rushing first downs allowed (3.8). It's no wonder that teams run the ball just 37.4 percent of the time against Minnesota, the second-lowest rate in the league.

The Lions are known for being a pass-first team - they throw the ball nearly 62 percent of the time, the ninth-highest rate in the NFL. But when they do run the ball, the results have been ... not good. Detroit ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards per game (80.8), 30th in yards per carry (3.4) and 24th in rushing touchdowns per contest (0.4). Matthew Stafford can't air it out every time - and when Detroit does take to the ground, bettors should expect Minnesota to shut down the run game with emphasis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 47.5)

Chargers' 1-2 sack combo vs. Cowboys' suddenly leaky O-line

It's officially time to panic in Big D, as the Dallas Cowboys enter their annual Thanksgiving foray desperate to improve their suddenly sagging playoff chances. The Cowboys have dropped two in a row and were humiliated at home in their last game, a 37-9 drubbing at the hands of the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles. Times have been tough without offensive lineman Tyron Smith, and if he doesn't return this weekend, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott might find himself on his back a whole lot.

The last thing a team struggling to protect its quarterback wants to see is a date with the Chargers on the calendar. Los Angeles is in tough to make the postseason - it comes into this one with a disappointing 4-6 mark - but you can't blame the pass rush, which has consistenly been one of the league's best all season long. The Chargers enter Week 12 having compiled 30 sacks to date; only the Jacksonville Jaguars (40) and Pittsburgh Steelers (30) have more.

The catalyst for Los Angeles' QB-chasing prowess: The sensational duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, who have combined for an incredible 19 sacks between them; Bosa ranks third overall with 10.5 sacks, while Ingram is close behind in seventh (8.5). They're the second-most prolific duo in the league, behind only the Jaguars' tandem of Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. An Oct. 1 loss to the Eagles is the only game all season in which neither Bosa nor Ingram recorded a sack.

With two QB hunters as effective as Bosa and Ingram coming to town, you can forgive Prescott for feeling a little antsy. The second-year signal caller has been sacked a whopping 12 times over the past two weeks, as the Cowboys' pass protection has completely faltered in Smith's absence. If he can't go this Thursday, look for Bosa and Ingram to make Prescott run for his life - and in a game that's expected to be close, that could tip the scales in favor of the visitors.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-7.5, 44.5)

Giants' big-play D struggles vs. Kirk Cousins' long-pass prowess

The New York Giants have long been eliminated from post-season contention - but they have proven to be a tough out in recent weeks, and would love nothing more than to ruin the Redskins' playoff hopes this weekend in an NFC East tussle at FedExField. The Giants shocked the visiting Kansas City Chiefs 12-9 on Sunday, and will look to carry that momentum into conference play, having lost their first seven games to NFC foes. But to do it, they'll need to find a way to contain Kirk Cousins.

The Giants haven't done a lot of things right - and while most of the attention has been focused on the offense, and quarterback Eli Manning in particular, the defense hasn't inspired much confidence, either. New York has been a magnet for big passing plays, allowing quarterbacks an average of 7.7 yards per pass attempt - lower than just four other NFL teams. And the Giants rank 28th out of 32 teams in average yards per completed pass against (7.5).

That makes this weekend's showdown with Cousins and the Redskins the perfect test. Cousins has made a career out of throwing the ball downfield, and is averaging a whopping 8.1 yards per pass attempt so far in 2017 - only Tom Brady (8.3), Jared Goff (8.3) and Drew Brees (8.2) have a higher rate. It should come as no surprise, then, that Cousins comes into Week 12 ranked second in the NFL in passing yards (2,796) despite sitting sixth in total attempts (345).

If last week is any indication, the Giants should expect Cousins to be even more vertically inclined than usual. Cousins averaged more than 10 yards per passing attempt in Sunday's stunning overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints, racking up 322 passing yards on 32 throws. And while his 7.98 passing yards per attempt at home ranks slightly below his road mark (8.25), facing a Giants secondary that has been more than generous should bump his home mark above the 8.00 mark for the season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, November 23

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OLE MISS (5 - 6) at MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 3) - 11/23/2017, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 against the spread versus OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
MISSISSIPPI ST is 1-1 straight up against OLE MISS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 13

Trend Report

Thursday, November 23

MISSISSIPPI @ MISSISSIPPI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Mississippi's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Mississippi's last 5 games when playing on the road against Mississippi State
Mississippi State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF

Week 13

Thursday’s game
Mississippi State pounded Ole Miss 55-20 LY, just their 2nd win in last five Egg Bowls; State ran ball for 457 yards in LY’s game. Rebels lost three of last four visits to Starkville, with losses by 7-28-14 points. Ole Miss is 1-3 on road, with only win 37-34 win at Kentucky; 2-1 as a road underdog. Miss State won five of its last six games; they’re 4-1 vs spread as a favorite this year; they covered five of last six games overall. Over is 7-1 in last eight Ole Miss games, under is 7-2 in State’s last nine. This is last game of season for Rebels, who are on probation.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Thursday, November 23

Mississippi @ Mississippi St

Game 113-114
November 23, 2017 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Mississippi
85.504
Mississippi St
102.460
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 17
66
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 14
65
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-14); Over