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Sunday 11-26-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 3:17 PM EASTERN POST
The Notebook Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLDS STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#5 SEA FOAM
#3 WHAT A CATCH
#8 STONEY BENNETT
#6 WE SHOULD TALK
Well folks ... this race honors the career the New York bred and multiple graded stakes winner, Notebook. Here in the 4th renewal of "The Book," #5 SEA FOAM, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in in each of his four career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break his maiden in his last start. #3 WHAT A CATCH is 6-1 in the morning line, is the overall speed leader, and has hit the board in each of his respective four lifetime starts to date, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his fist two "askings."
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Churchill Downs - Race #6 - Post: 3:27pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 88
Rating: 3
#12 PURIMETER (ML=9/2)
#13 SMARTY KITTEN (ML=5/1)
#1 RENN LAKE (ML=7/2)
PURIMETER - Taking a class drop in class figure points from his November 15th race at Churchill Downs. Based on that data, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. This animal ran well at Keeneland on Oct 27th. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort. You should overlook that last event at Churchill Downs in the slop where he finished out of the money. Should do well in this race under better track conditions. SMARTY KITTEN - Several positive 'vibrations' associated with this thoroughbred and his brain trust. RENN LAKE - Morales comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last event. Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +28. This jock/conditioner duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Have to give this gelding a shot. Ran a strong outing last time around the track within the last month.
Vulnerable Contenders: #1A FATHER BUD (ML=7/2), #7 SAFE PASSAGE (ML=9/2), #5 FAITHFUL NEIGHBOR (ML=6/1),
FATHER BUD - The Brain always warns me to keep away from ponies in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in sprint events recently. SAFE PASSAGE - The form factor is somewhat in question after the addition of front bandages in the November 16th event. This horse ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig. FAITHFUL NEIGHBOR - Registered a most unsatisfactory speed figure last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on Nov 15th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig. A 'strong performance bounce' is likely to happen for this horse this time out. May rebound next time.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - PURIMETER - Coming right back after racing on Nov 15th at Churchill Downs. He'll run a good one in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #12 PURIMETER to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,12,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,12,13] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,12,13] with [1,12,13] with [1,7,8,12,13] with [1,7,8,12,13] Total Cost: $36
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Golden Gate Fields - Race #2 - Post: 1:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 71
Rating: 3
#5 TIZ SEEKING A WIN (ML=5/2)
#3 COLONEL PEGGY SUE (ML=3/1)
TIZ SEEKING A WIN - This filly is in good form, having run a nice race on Oct 27th, finishing third. This racer wins a lot of dough per race around the track. I believe she can add to the lifetime total right here in this race. COLONEL PEGGY SUE - This rider and trainer have a high win percent together. Faced tougher last out at Santa Anita. Based on class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of top contenders.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 DIXIE AVENUE (ML=6/5), #6 SUNSET CITY (ML=8/1),
DIXIE AVENUE - A bit of a lackluster performance when this filly finished sixth. Earned her best speed figure in the last race, but the track conditions may have played a major role in the outcome. SUNSET CITY - Didn't hit the board on November 4th at Golden Gate Fields. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. Run-of-the-mill rating in the last race at Golden Gate Fields at 5 furlongs. Don't believe this steed will improve too much in today's event.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TIZ SEEKING A WIN - Watch out for this horse. My data would suggest that she will sit chilly for most of the race, then with a slight urging from Gryder, will take the lead turning for home.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 TIZ SEEKING A WIN to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - SA - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 95
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $7,500 OR LESS IN 2016 - 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 7 WHITE BLUFF 5/1
# 5 SPIRIT GRABBER 9/2
# 4 SCHLOSSER 15/1
WHITE BLUFF looks to be a solid contender. When a trainer brings any horse back this soon it is a positive signal. Has recorded solid Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. He has been running quite well as of late while recording strong Speed Figures. SPIRIT GRABBER - Lynch has a win percent of 17 over the last month. At the top in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this field. SCHLOSSER - Looks very good against this group of animals and will probably be one of the leaders. Lately Contreras has provided gamblers with a very good winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races.
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Portland Meadows
Portland Meadows - Race 5
Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / $0.50 14% Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $8,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 66 • Purse: $5,800 • Post: 1:52P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Trailer. TRUST IN THE STARS is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TRUST IN THE STARS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TI Z JIMS: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FLATTER CAT: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. DE SIX: Ho rse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
3
TRUST IN THE STARS
5/2
7/2
5
TIZ JIMS
6/1
9/2
2
FLATTER CAT
8/1
7/1
7
DE SIX
9/2
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
PAPA BO
1
8/1
Front-runner
0
0
69.6
40.8
30.3
7
DE SIX
7
9/2
Front-runner
66
53
56.2
48.0
39.0
5
TIZ JIMS
5
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
68
53
71.0
55.2
52.7
2
FLATTER CAT
2
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
58
59
53.2
54.2
42.7
3
TRUST IN THE STARS
3
5/2
Alternator/Trailer
68
56
51.6
56.6
51.6
4
BUCKBEAK
4
2/1
Alternator/Non-contender
67
56
85.2
52.0
46.0
6
FITZROY
6
10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
4.8
22.1
10.6
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
Parx Racing - Race 4
Second Half Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta /10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 1:46P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 26 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Front-runner. ONLY YOU is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEGRITO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. QUALITY INTEREST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ONLY YOU: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's dista nce (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). ACT OF MADNESS: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
6
NEGRITO
4/1
5/1
1
QUALITY INTEREST
3/2
6/1
2
ONLY YOU
6/1
7/1
3
ACT OF MADNESS
12/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
2
ONLY YOU
2
6/1
Front-runner
87
91
76.4
74.6
62.1
1
QUALITY INTEREST
1
3/2
Stalker
97
86
74.4
86.4
81.9
6
NEGRITO
7
4/1
Stalker
102
93
63.4
84.1
80.6
3
ACT OF MADNESS
3
12/1
Alternator/Stalker
95
85
71.6
80.4
71.9
5
SO KITTEN
6
3/1
Trailer
90
85
62.4
83.0
73.5
1A
BROADWAY BAY
5
3/2
Trailer
95
85
61.2
79.0
71.5
4
BROAD LOVER
4
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
89
84
76.8
73.8
63.8
7
ECONOMIC DATA
8
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
88
83
72.2
58.4
43.4
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24100 Class Rating: 88
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD OR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 26 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $19,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 6 ROCKPORT DANCER 6/1
# 1 BELLA FABIANA 8/1
# 2 BOATHOUSE VIEW 9/2
ROCKPORT DANCER is the top wager in this race. Had one of the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures of this field in her last contest. Like the results in the last couple of races. BELLA FABIANA - Has performed soundly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 82 avg speed figure. Ought to be given a shot in here if only for the formidable speed figure recorded in the last contest. BOATHOUSE VIEW - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. Has been racing soundly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, Indiana
Preview: Titans at Colts
Gracenote
Nov 22, 2017
In the thick of the AFC South Division race, the Tennessee Titans look to get back on the winning track when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. The Titans had their four-game winning streak snapped in their last outing where they were hammered at Pittsburgh 40-17 to drop into second place in the divisional race.
Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota is hoping to bounce back from one of his worst games as a professional when he faces the Colts. Mariota ran for a touchdown and threw for another, but also was picked off four times while under constant pressure from the Steelers' blitzing defense. The Colts expect to have Jacoby Brissett under center, although the quarterback was still in concussion protocol during the week. Brissett has thrown two touchdowns in each of his last three games.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Titans -3.5. O/U: 44.
ABOUT THE TITANS (6-4): Mariota was hampered by a hamstring injury, but still paced the Titans to a 36-22 win over Colts earlier in the season. The victory snapped an 11-game losing streak to Indianapolis, one of the longest streaks to one team in NFL history. The Titans are in the midst of a stretch of four road games in five weeks and have lost their last nine games at Indianapolis.
ABOUT THE COLTS (3-7): Brissett took the bulk of the snaps in practice early in the week and coach Chuck Pagano said he should be ready to go. He was injured on a hit by Pittsburgh's Stephon Tuitt in the Colts' 20-17 loss last game, but did not show concussion-like symptoms until after the game. T.Y. Hilton looks to bounce back from a slow day where he caught just two passes for 23 yards after posting a season-high 175 yards receiving the previous week.
EXTRA POINTS
1. The Titans trail the Jaguars by a game in the South Division, but are a game ahead of the pack in the wild-card standings.
2. Indianapolis is last in the NFL, allowing 28 points a game.
3. The Titans controlled the clock in the last meeting, possessing the ball for just under 36 minutes.
PREDICTION: Titans 24, Colts 14
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Trends - Tennessee at Indianapolis
ATS Trends
Tennessee
Titans are 11-23-2 ATS in their last 36 games following a straight up loss.
Titans are 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Titans are 15-34-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Titans are 16-37-4 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Titans are 17-42-4 ATS in their last 63 games overall.
Titans are 4-10-2 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Titans are 14-36-3 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC South.
Titans are 8-21-3 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games in November.
Titans are 7-21 ATS in their last 28 road games.
Titans are 11-38-4 ATS in their last 53 vs. AFC.
Titans are 11-40-2 ATS in their last 53 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Titans are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 12.
Titans are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games on fieldturf.
Titans are 2-13-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Titans are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Indianapolis
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
Colts are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Colts are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games in November.
Colts are 32-11 ATS in their last 43 games following a straight up loss.
Colts are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 12.
Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC South.
OU Trends
Tennessee
Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games in November.
Over is 2-0-2 in Titans last 4 games in Week 12.
Over is 4-0 in Titans last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 10-2 in Titans last 12 vs. AFC South.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-1 in Titans last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 15-5-1 in Titans last 21 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 11-4-1 in Titans last 16 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 8-3 in Titans last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Titans last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Indianapolis
Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 games in November.
Under is 7-1 in Colts last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Colts last 6 vs. AFC South.
Under is 5-1-1 in Colts last 7 games in Week 12.
Under is 8-2 in Colts last 10 home games.
Under is 6-2 in Colts last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 15-7 in Colts last 22 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Head to Head
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Under is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings in Indianapolis.
Titans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Indianapolis.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Preview: Panthers at Jets
Gracenote
Nov 22, 2017
The Carolina Panthers are looking very much like the team that went to the Super Bowl two years ago, with Cam Newton back in MVP form. Newton and the Panthers will try to regain the momentum they had before the bye week and earn a fourth consecutive win when they visit the New York Jets on Sunday.
Newton enjoyed his best game of the season before the bye, throwing for 254 yards and four touchdowns while adding 95 yards on five carries in a 45-21 win over the Miami Dolphins. "We just want to keep it going," Newton told reporters before the bye. "It's nothing saying we've hit our Pinnacle yet, and there's nothing saying we can't get better. That's the thing we've just got to be optimistic about." The Panthers might need to work to maintain their focus this week with a showdown at the NFC South-leading New Orleans Saints set for next week and a matchup against a Jets team that dropped four of the last five games. New York went into its bye with a sour taste after dropping a 15-10 decision at Tampa Bay, but is only one game out of a wild-card spot in the AFC and is sticking by veteran quarterback Josh McCown.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Panthers -5. O/U: 40
ABOUT THE PANTHERS (7-3): Newton figures to get a big weapon back on Sunday in tight end Greg Olsen, who suffered a broken foot in Week 2 but was taken off injured reserve on Monday and spent the week practicing with the team in anticipation of playing Sunday. "You just want to remember how to do this," Olsen told reporters. "You take a lot of things for granted sometimes that you're going to pick up where you left off, but there is a little bit of a learning curve when you've been out for a while." Olsen rejoins a receiving corps that was getting a little thin after trading away Kelvin Benjamin and losing Curtis Samuel for the rest of the season to an ankle injury.
ABOUT THE JETS (4-6): New York was not expected to do much this season except put the team in position to draft its quarterback of the future, and there were some calls for coach Todd Bowles to get one of the younger quarterbacks on the roster - Bryce Petty or Christian Hackenberg - some playing time with the team seemingly sliding out of the race. "I'm not coming up with a scenario right now (that would involve a change at quarterback)," Bowles told reporters. "We're going to play the games and we're going to try to win each one. ... Josh will be our quarterback and we'll go from there." McCown, 38, is completing 69 percent of his passes with 14 touchdowns and eight interceptions, but has been sacked 32 times - third most in the NFL.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Panthers C Matt Kalil (neck) came off IR this week and is questionable for Sunday.
2. Jets RB Matt Forte (knee) sat out the last game and is questionable.
3. Carolina WR Devin Funchess recorded a season-high 92 yards and two TDs last time out on Nov. 13.
PREDICTION: Panthers 28, Jets 17
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Trends - Carolina at N.Y. Jets
ATS Trends
Carolina
Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Panthers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Panthers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on fieldturf.
Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
N.Y. Jets
Jets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Jets are 4-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Jets are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Jets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Jets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jets are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
Jets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in November.
OU Trends
Carolina
Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a bye week.
Over is 4-0-1 in Panthers last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 20-6-1 in Panthers last 27 games on fieldturf.
Under is 11-4 in Panthers last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 road games.
N.Y. Jets
Under is 8-1-1 in Jets last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 5-1-1 in Jets last 7 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 15-5 in Jets last 20 games in Week 12.
Under is 8-3 in Jets last 11 games following a bye week.
Head to Head
Home team is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Preview: Buccaneers at Falcons
Gracenote
Nov 23, 2017
The Atlanta Falcons have worked their way back into the NFC playoff picture, and they’ll try to solidify their standing with a third consecutive victory when they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday. The Falcons have won three of their last four games, while the Buccaneers have captured two straight following a five-game skid.
The Falcons are back in the wild-card race after posting a 34-31 win at Seattle on Monday and are beginning a stretch of three straight home games, although the next two are against division leaders Minnesota and New Orleans. After suffering three losses by six points or fewer, the Falcons have seen two close games go their way in the last four weeks. "We're getting the outcome we want now," Falcons receiver Julio Jones told reporters. "Winning will breed more swagger and more confidence." The Buccaneers have confidence in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 2-0 as a starter since replacing the injured Jameis Winston after passing for 275 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s 30-20 win at Miami.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Falcons -10. O/U: 48.5
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-6): Tampa Bay has been unable to get its ground game going, even with Doug Martin back from suspension. The offense has turned things around with Fitzpatrick at the helm, though, simply by taking care of the ball – the Bucs have committed only one turnover in their last two games after coughing it up nine times in their previous four contests. One of the league’s worst pass defenses was torched for 365 yards through the air last week, but the Bucs offset it by forcing five turnovers - giving them 19 takeaways this season.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (6-4): Atlanta’s dramatic offensive drop-off continued last week, as it totaled just 279 yards in the win at Seattle. Jones has only one touchdown reception and two 100-yard receiving performances all season while Matt Ryan is averaging 256.7 passing yards – down from 309 last season. Atlanta has done a great job against the pass but has struggled to stop the run, allowing an average of 148 yards on the ground over the last three games.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Ryan has thrown a touchdown pass in 28 consecutive games, the longest active streak in the league.
2. Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans has averaged 96.6 receiving yards and caught five touchdown passes in his last five meetings with the Falcons.
3. Atlanta RB Devonta Freeman, who is questionable due to a concussion, has recorded 13 TDs in his last nine home games.
PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 20
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Trends - Tampa Bay at Atlanta
ATS Trends
Tampa Bay
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
Buccaneers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Buccaneers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games in November.
Buccaneers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Buccaneers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Buccaneers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC South.
Atlanta
Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Falcons are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Falcons are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
OU Trends
Tampa Bay
Over is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 road games.
Under is 5-1 in Buccaneers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 17-4 in Buccaneers last 21 games in Week 12.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games in November.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. NFC South.
Under is 6-2-1 in Buccaneers last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 8-3-1 in Buccaneers last 12 games on grass.
Under is 5-2-1 in Buccaneers last 8 games following a straight up win.
Atlanta
Over is 7-0-1 in Falcons last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 9-1-1 in Falcons last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 7-1-1 in Falcons last 9 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 6-1 in Falcons last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Falcons last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-1-1 in Falcons last 7 vs. NFC South.
Over is 9-2-1 in Falcons last 12 games following a straight up win.
Over is 12-3 in Falcons last 15 home games.
Under is 21-7 in Falcons last 28 games in November.
Over is 15-5-1 in Falcons last 21 vs. NFC.
Under is 6-2 in Falcons last 8 games in Week 12.
Under is 18-7-1 in Falcons last 26 games on grass.
Over is 20-8-1 in Falcons last 29 games overall.
Over is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Head to Head
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Atlanta.
Buccaneers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 meetings in Atlanta.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Preview: Bears at Eagles
Gracenote
Nov 22, 2017
Alshon Jeffery insists that his concerns lie with the future rather than the past, so much so that a meeting with his former team doesn't hold as much weight as what potentially is ahead. For now, the immediate is all that is on his plate as Jeffery looks to lend a hand in helping the surging Philadelphia Eagles to their ninth straight win on Sunday when they host the Chicago Bears.
"As long as we get the division and that ring, I don't care what happens. That's all that matters - winning the Super Bowl," said the 27-year-old Jeffery, who left a 3-13 season with the Bears last season to sign a one-year, $9.5 million deal with Philadelphia in January. While Jeffery's individual stats are far from gaudy (38 receptions, 567 yards, six TDs), the Eagles have the best record (9-1), scored the most points (320), thrown the most passing touchdowns (25) and have the best red zone efficiency (73.53 percent) in the league this season. Chicago, on the other hand, continues to experience growing pains with losses in three straight to reside in the cellar of the NFC North. "We've shown spurts and moments ... but we have lulls," coach John Fox said. "We have siestas. We just don't do it for 60 minutes. Nobody, I think, is good enough to overcome that."
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Eagles -13.5. O/U: 44
ABOUT THE BEARS (3-7): Pernell McPhee insists he's up to the challenge of stepping up in place of former first-round pick Leonard Floyd (11.5 sacks in 22 career games), who sustained MCL and PCL injuries in Sunday's 27-24 loss to Detroit. "It ain't (going to be) hard for me to pick up the load. I'm bred to do this," said the 28-year-old McPhee, who has four sacks this season. Rookie Mitchell Trubisky continues to show modest progress after completing 60 percent of his passes for the second straight week while rushing for a season-high 53 yards against the Lions. Jordan Howard is better suited for the ground game, however, as he rushed for 125 yards last week and found the end zone for the first time since September.
ABOUT THE EAGLES (9-1): Carson Wentz was held to a season-low 168 passing yards on Sunday, but he tossed two touchdown passes in the 37-9 rout of arch-rival Dallas to increase his total to 19 over the last six games. Wentz is buoyed by a potent ground attack, with Jay Ajayi rolling up 168 yards on just 15 carries since being acquired from Miami and rookie Corey Clement finding the end zone on four occasions (three rushing, one receiving) in that same two-game span. An opportunistic defense posted three interceptions and four sacks versus the Cowboys, with defensive end Derek Barnett recording his second two-sack performance in his last four games.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Chicago signed Cairo Santos on Monday, one day after fellow kicker Connor Barth missed a game-tying 46-yard field goal attempt in the waning moments versus Detroit.
2. Speaking of kickers, Philadelphia coach Doug Pederson said on Wednesday that "everything is looking good" for Jake Elliott (concussion) to play versus the Bears.
3. Chicago DE Akiem Hicks has failed to record a sack in the last two games after collecting seven in his previous eight contests.
PREDICTION: Eagles 31, Bears 10
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Trends - Chicago at Philadelphia
ATS Trends
Chicago
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 12.
Bears are 7-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bears are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Bears are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Bears are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
Bears are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bears are 16-38-1 ATS in their last 55 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Bears are 13-37-1 ATS in their last 51 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Philadelphia
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Eagles are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Eagles are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12.
OU Trends
Chicago
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 games in November.
Under is 7-2 in Bears last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 16-5 in Bears last 21 games in Week 12.
Under is 8-3 in Bears last 11 games following a ATS loss.
Philadelphia
Over is 9-1 in Eagles last 10 games in Week 12.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games in November.
Over is 24-7 in Eagles last 31 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 6-2 in Eagles last 8 games on grass.
Under is 9-3 in Eagles last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Eagles last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 13-5-1 in Eagles last 19 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 21-9 in Eagles last 30 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 16-7-2 in Eagles last 25 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 41-19 in Eagles last 60 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Head to Head
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
Underdog is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Preview: Bills at Chiefs
Gracenote
Nov 23, 2017
After a disappointing loss last week, the Kansas City Chiefs have a chance to get back on track when they host the struggling Buffalo Bills on Sunday. Both teams are in the middle of the AFC playoff picture despite recent stumbles.
The Chiefs have lost two straight and four of their last five, most recently suffering a 12-9 overtime loss to the woeful New York Giants. The Chiefs still hold a two-game lead over Oakland and the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC West, but their defense continues to have trouble and the offense has sputtered after a hot start. Buffalo still is in the running for a wild-card spot but has lost three straight, including back-to-back blowout setbacks against New Orleans and the Chargers. Coach Sean McDermott made the ill-advised move to bench quarterback Tyrod Taylor after the loss to the Saints, and Nathan Peterman threw five interceptions against Los Angeles in his first NFL start.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Chiefs -10. O/U: 46.5
ABOUT THE BILLS (5-5): Taylor takes back the reins of the Bills’ offense, which ranks 30th in passing but 11th in rushing. Taylor has thrown 11 touchdown passes and three interceptions, and he pairs with LeSean McCoy (709 rushing yards, four TDs) to form a dangerous ground game, but the Bills want to see him take more chances to open up the air attack. The bigger issue during the three-game skid has been defense’s inability to stop the run – the Bills have allowed 638 rushing yards in their last three games.
ABOUT THE CHIEFS (6-4): Kansas City’s offense looked unstoppable during a 5-0 start, but Pittsburgh provided a blueprint for slowing it down in Week 6, and the Chiefs have been pedestrian on offense ever since. The Chiefs have committed six turnovers in their last three games after having only one giveaway in their first seven contests, and rookie Kareem Hunt has not rushed for 100 yards in his last five games after doing so in four of his first five contests. Kansas City has struggled all around on defense but particularly against the run, holding only one opponent under 100 rushing yards.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Chiefs QB Alex Smith has not thrown an interception in his last four home games.
2. McCoy has 352 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns in his last three meetings with the Chiefs.
3. The Chiefs signed CB Darrelle Revis on Wednesday to solidify their secondary, but it is unclear whether he will play Sunday.
PREDICTION: Chiefs 26, Bills 17
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Trends - Buffalo at Kansas City
ATS Trends
Buffalo
Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bills are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Bills are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Bills are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Bills are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Kansas City
Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss.
Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up loss.
Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
Chiefs are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
OU Trends
Buffalo
Over is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games in November.
Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 6-1 in Bills last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-1 in Bills last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 vs. AFC.
Over is 4-1 in Bills last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 8-2 in Bills last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 16-5 in Bills last 21 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 9-3 in Bills last 12 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Bills last 11 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Bills last 11 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Bills last 7 games on grass.
Over is 7-3 in Bills last 10 games in Week 12.
Kansas City
Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 games in Week 12.
Over is 4-1 in Chiefs last 5 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 18-7-1 in Chiefs last 26 games in November.
Under is 12-5-1 in Chiefs last 18 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 36-17-1 in Chiefs last 54 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 40-19 in Chiefs last 59 home games.
Head to Head
Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City.
Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Under is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.
Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
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When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, November 26, 2017
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Preview: Dolphins at Patriots
Gracenote
Nov 22, 2017
The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins will be traveling in similar circles over the next few weeks despite squarely heading in opposite directions in the standings. The AFC East rivals will play the first of two encounters in a three-week stretch on Sunday when they meet in Foxborough, Mass.
"I think you prepare for this game the best you can and give yourself the best opportunity to perform well and win, and then worry about next week, next week," coach Bill Belichick said. The one-game-at-a-time approach has been a familiar refrain for Belichick and the Patriots, who breezed to their sixth straight win last week after dismantling Oakland 33-8 in Mexico City. A visit to New England hardly is comforting news for Miami, which hasn't walked out of Gillette Stadium with a victory since debuting the "Wildcat" offense in 2008. The reeling Dolphins are in need of a few more tricks up their sleeve as their once-sturdy defense has sprung a significant leak, with the team being outscored 142-65 during its four-game losing skid.
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -16.5. O/U: 47.5
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-6): Last Sunday originally was scheduled to be Miami's bye week, and the club certainly looked like it took the week off as Jay Cutler tossed three interceptions in the first two quarters of Sunday's 30-20 loss to Tampa Bay. Cutler was removed from the contest and is questionable to play this Sunday after being placed in concussion protocol, with Matt Moore completing 17 of 28 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown in relief. Jarvis Landry scored a touchdown for the third straight week and sixth time in seven outings, but the 24-year-old may get an earful from the New England faithful after saying in April that the Patriots would be swept by the Dolphins this season and "they're not our big brother anymore."
ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (8-2): Tom Brady completed a season-high 81.1 percent of his passes versus the Raiders and threw for three touchdowns for the second straight outing. Offseason acquisition Brandin Cooks reeled in six receptions for a season-best 149 yards with a touchdown last week and faces a Dolphins' secondary that has struggled in coverage. Rob Gronkowski saw both his production (three catches, 36 yards) and snaps (53) take a hit last week, with fellow tight end Martellus Bennett getting back up to speed in his second stint with the Patriots. Dion Lewis has assumed the reins in the crowded backfield by averaging 15 touches and 65.7 scrimmage yards over the last three games, with Super Bowl hero James White seeing both his role and playing time diminish in that stretch.
EXTRA POINTS
1. New England, which is averaging an NFL fourth-best 29.0 points per game, has outscored opponents 126-58 in the second quarter this season.
2. Dolphins WR Kenny Stills, who erupted for seven catches for 180 yards and a touchdown last week, had a scoring reception in both contests versus the Patriots last season.
3. New England has an NFL-least five turnovers and is tied for third with a plus-8 differential, while Miami is 29th with a minus-9 turnover differential (eight takeaways, 17 giveaways).
PREDICTION: Patriots 37, Dolphins 10
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Trends - Miami at New England
ATS Trends
Miami
Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
Dolphins are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC East.
Dolphins are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Dolphins are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Dolphins are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
Dolphins are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Dolphins are 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
New England
Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win.
Patriots are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Patriots are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Patriots are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. AFC.
Patriots are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
Patriots are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Patriots are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 home games.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 12.
Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on fieldturf.
Patriots are 78-38-2 ATS in their last 118 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
OU Trends
Miami
Over is 5-0 in Dolphins last 5 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Dolphins last 4 games in November.
Over is 7-1 in Dolphins last 8 vs. AFC East.
Under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 games in Week 12.
Over is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 10-4 in Dolphins last 14 vs. AFC.
Under is 25-11 in Dolphins last 36 games on fieldturf.
New England
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games following a straight up win.
Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 7-2 in Patriots last 9 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 6-2 in Patriots last 8 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games.
Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 games in Week 12.
Over is 47-19 in Patriots last 66 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 23-11 in Patriots last 34 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Over is 64-31 in Patriots last 95 games on fieldturf.
Head to Head
Home team is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Dolphins are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
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