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Monday 12-4-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Laurel - Race #3 - Post: 1:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 69
Rating: 3
#7 EYESFIRST (ML=3/1)
#3 HERMANS GOLD (ML=10/1)
EYESFIRST - Outran his odds in his first start. Look for another strong effort today. Aboard this horse on November 13th and Prado is right back in the irons this time. Prado and Salzman getting together are a horseplayer's friend. This thoroughbred isn't the M/L favorite, but finished ahead of today's M/L favorite in his last race (Nov 13th at Laurel). This colt is in superb form right now. Ran third last race out and comes back quickly. You have to really like that recent race figure, 62, which is the top last race speed figure of this field. HERMANS GOLD - Trainer Robb gave this gelding a nice long drill. That's a really good sign.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 HASTA AHORA (ML=5/2), #2X SIR BRAHMS (ML=5/2), #6 BUSTIN TO BE BAD (ML=9/2),
HASTA AHORA - Should have at least hit the board in the last couple of months in a sprint affair to be any kind of value at low odds in a sprint. Tough to play any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk. This gelding notched a speed figure in his last race which probably isn't good enough in today's race. SIR BRAHMS - Not probable that this equine will finish better than he did last time out of the box when placing sixth. BUSTIN TO BE BAD - Don't think this mount is worth 9/2 in this event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 EYESFIRST on top if we're getting at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
Skip
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mahoning Valley Race Course
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race 8
Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $10,400 • Post: 4:02P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MANY FACES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. HEAVENS JEWEL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. NALABANA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Tr ainer combination return on investment is at least +20. BABY LET'S DANCE: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter H orse race).
4
MANY FACES
20/1
3/1
1
HEAVENS JEWEL
5/2
8/1
3
NALABANA
8/1
9/1
12
BABY LET'S DANCE
4/1
10/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
HEAVENS JEWEL
1
5/2
Front-runner
56
61
86.3
34.1
30.1
12
BABY LET'S DANCE
12
4/1
Front-runner
57
55
73.8
51.2
36.2
3
NALABANA
3
8/1
Front-runner
63
57
73.0
37.8
28.8
6
AMERICAN LIONESS
6
20/1
Front-runner
45
47
62.4
25.6
10.1
9
BOSSY ALEXANDRA
9
5/1
Alternator/Stalker
58
55
62.6
50.4
37.9
10
BELLE ALLESSANDRA
10
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
59
51
51.4
52.2
40.7
4
MANY FACES
4
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
70
59
68.8
60.6
57.1
7
LEATHER AND LACEY
7
20/1
Alternator/Trailer
64
41
46.0
39.0
26.5
2
THIS DREAM OF MINE
2
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
52
38
47.0
33.8
13.3
8
SHEZAFLASHYLASSIE
8
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
49
54
42.4
29.2
16.2
11
LIEM W
11
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
60
43
41.2
28.8
10.3
5
SHES PACKING
5
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
38
42
30.8
35.8
18.8
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Portland Meadows
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $4200 Class Rating: 76
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 AILANIS LITTLE BAY 4/1
# 4 THE REAL QUEEN B 5/2
# 1 JODYS POINT 7/2
I've got to go with AILANIS LITTLE BAY. Will most likely be one of the early speedsters of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. Posted a formidable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this affair. Is difficult not to examine based on speed figures which have been formidable - 65 avg - of late. THE REAL QUEEN B - Samuels ought to be able to get this filly to break out early in this race. Recorded a formidable speed figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. JODYS POINT - Must be given a chance - I like the figures from the last contest.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Parx Racing - Race #4 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 69
Rating:4
#8 TEN SILVER DOLLARS (ML=8/1)
#1 MAJESTIC KOA (ML=20/1)
#3 PRETTY VENEZUELA (ML=7/2)
TEN SILVER DOLLARS - This mare is in nice form. Finished second on Nov 20th. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. MAJESTIC KOA - I definitely see good luck for this thoroughbred right here. PRETTY VENEZUELA - The November 19th affair at Parx Racing was at a class level of (75). Dropping down the ladder based on class considerably, so she should be in a good spot. Have to make this filly a win candidate; she comes off a sharp contest on November 19th.
Vulnerable Contenders: #2 VALIANT SPIRIT (ML=8/5), #9 LITTLE ALANA (ML=9/2),
VALIANT SPIRIT - This filly is always around, but just doesn't win. Hard to play her on the win end. LITTLE ALANA - Tough for anyone who saw this questionable contender in her last contest to wager on her in today's event.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Play #8 TEN SILVER DOLLARS to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[1,3,8] with [1,3,8] with [1,3,4,8,9] with [1,3,4,8,9] Total Cost: $36
** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 93
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 4, 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 4 HOW ABOUT HIM 5/1
# 5 LASSIE'S REWARD 6/1
# 3 SERBIAN SYCLONE 9/5
I've got to go with HOW ABOUT HIM. Has solid front speed and should fare solidly against this field. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Rarick have shown sharp results lately. Could best this group based on the speed fig - 88 - of his last contest. LASSIE'S REWARD - Has respectable early lick and ought to fare soundly versus this group. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me back this gelding. SERBIAN SYCLONE - He has earned competitive figures under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. Overall the speed figures of this animal look strong in this contest.
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Handicapped by Valuline at Zia Park
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Zia Park, Race 1 (Monday December 4, 2017)
CHASENTHISDREAM
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
ZIA-1 5f DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 10,000 F/M 3YUP $12,000
P# dd ex p4 t s ML WP TVL
6 CHASENTHISDREAM 8/5 42% 7/5 Strong Favorite icon
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ZIA
ZIA - Race 7
$1 Exacta / Fifty Cent Trifecta / Ten Cent Superfecta / 1st Leg of .50 Pick 3 2nd Leg of .50 Pick 4
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:54P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * BE GRATEFUL: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse h as the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. OFFICER GRIGGS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SLADENS DREAM: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
8
BE GRATEFUL
9/2
4/1
5
OFFICER GRIGGS
7/2
6/1
1
SLADENS DREAM
3/1
6/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
1
SLADENS DREAM
1
3/1
Front-runner
78
63
94.0
59.4
53.9
9
TACO EXPRESS
9
30/1
Front-runner
60
57
88.0
39.4
26.9
5
OFFICER GRIGGS
5
7/2
Front-runner
78
60
80.0
64.2
59.2
6
FORTYFOURSMOKELESS
6
8/1
Front-runner
64
64
76.0
46.8
35.3
4
TRULY BEYOND
4
10/1
Front-runner
59
54
66.8
32.4
14.4
3
BLINGITON CHARLIE
3
8/1
Front-runner
53
52
56.0
35.0
17.0
7
MINGO NATIVE
7
6/1
Stalker
69
61
46.4
56.6
47.6
10
HONOR GIRL
10
20/1
Alternator/Stalker
62
56
52.2
55.4
45.4
8
BE GRATEFUL
8
9/2
Trailer
80
75
15.2
67.3
59.3
2
PRINCE BOB
2
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
61
58
52.0
51.2
39.7
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Colin Cowherd
Steelers (-5.5) at Bengals
Colin doesn’t like swallowing points, but absolutely loves Steelers laying 5.5 on the road against AFC North rival Cincinnati in what might be his favorite pick of the year.
Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS over their last 6, and 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 on the road in Cincy. They’re 6-0 when Le’Veon Bell has 100+ scrimmage yards this year, and Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 146.2 Rush YPG over their last 6 games. In his first game against the Bengals in Week 7, Bell racked up 192 total scrimmage yards, and has averaged 119.8 YPG with 4 touchdowns in his last 4 road games.
Pittsburgh should be able to pound the rock all day and the defense should stifle Andy Dalton.
Take the Steelers, lay the 5.5.
34-23, Steelers.
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Monday, December 4, 2017
NBA (519) DETROIT PISTONS VS (520) SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Take: UNDER
Reason: Your free play for Monday, December 4, 2017 is in the NBA contest between the Detroit Pistons and the San Antonio Spurs. Detroit is having an excellent season at 14-8 S/U and 14-7-1 ATS. Tonight they face San Antonio (15-7 S/U, 11-10-1 ATS) which had to play last night at Oklahoma City. This makes the Spurs in the 2nd of a back-to-back spot here while Detroit had a day off. Anytime a team plays the 2nd of a back-to-back spot I look for them to slow down the next game. The Pistons have been a very good Under team. They are 1-7 O/U their last eight road games and 1-11-1 their last 13 against the Southwest division. These teams have gone UNDER in four of their last five meetings. That's just what I will be looking for tonight, take the UNDER.
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Arthur Ralph Sports
Mon Bengals + 5
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JOEY JUICE
Both Milwaukee and Boston are coming off of underachieving, easy wins that should have been much easier.
Let's face it, the Celtics are a superpower this year, the only surprise is that it has been their defense not their offense that is responsible for this success.
Milwaukee is on an uptick ever since they added Bledsoe to their starting lineup. However that won't be enough to stop this Boston team at home where they are so very tough and determined to win in front of their faithful .
A quick look inside the numbers confirms a Boston victory is most probable.
Celtics are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Boston is the free play.
3* BOSTON
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JOHN MARTIN
1 Unit FREE PLAY on Detroit Pistons +3.5
The San Antonio Spurs are in a tough spot here after losing 87-90 in Oklahoma City last night. They will now be playing their 3rd game in 4 days and won’t have much energy left to face the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are have been one of the best teams in the NBA up to this point, going 14-8 SU & 14-7-1 ATS in their 22 games. They will be hungry after losing two straight road games to Washington and Philadelphia coming in, and they are the fresher team after having yesterday off. The Pistons are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%. Give me Detroit.
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ANDRE RAMIREZ
BENGALS +6
Both teams are coming in with heavy injuries, but the Steelers will be light!
For the Steelers, two players have already been ruled out for this prime-time game, Joe Haden(fibula) and Vance McDonald (ankle). There were a pair of starters dealing with ankle injuries, and Mike Mitchell has been listed as doubtful for the AFC grudge match.
The biggest injury to watch will be the toe injury of Antonio Brown. After being a full participant in the team’s first practice of the week, he missed the following practices and is officially listed as questionable. While many are suggesting the injury is minor, toe injuries have been known to linger and cause a major roadblock to players getting back on the field.
Not all the news was bad for the Steelers, and the good news was that Ryan Shazier (ankle) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) were not on the final report, meaning they’ll be in the lineup when the two division rivals kickoff.
The extra week to prepare and rest up is a big plus for Cincinnati in this matchup, while home-field advantage serves as a nice bonus for Pittsburgh. Defensively, these teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. But the Steelers should have the edge on offense if they place an emphasis on getting the football into the hands of Le’Veon Bell as much as possible. That should make the difference as Pittsburgh earns another close, hard-fought, win in this storied rivalry on Sunday.
This game will be close, and will be decided by a field goal.
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RED DOG SPORTS
NCAA-B | Dec 04, 2017
Michigan vs. Ohio State
Ohio State -1.5
These two Big Ten rivals meet on the basketball court Monday night. Home court is surely worth a few points to the Buckeyes. I think we see Ohio State win a close game
Michigan 64
Ohio State 69
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JACK JONES
Jack’s Free Pick Monday: Dallas Mavericks -3
The Dallas Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season right now. They are 4-3 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. They have blowout home wins over Milwaukee (by 32), Oklahoma City (by 16) and the LA Clippers (by 26) during this stretch.
Now they face a Denver Nuggets team that is reeling with the losses of their two best players. Both Paul Millsap and Nikola Jokic are out indefinitely with wrist and ankle injuries, respectively. Wilson Chandler is also questionable with a back injury. You just can’t replace two players the caliber of Millsap and Jokic.
Denver is 0-7 ATS off a win by 10 points or more this season. It is coming back to lose by a whopping 14.9 points per game on average in this spot. The Mavericks are 14-6 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nuggets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six trips to Dallas. The home team is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings.
Plays on home favorites (Dallas) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points are 61-27 (69.3%) ATS since 1996. Bet the Mavericks Monday.
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SCOTT SPREITZER
NBA | Dec 04, 2017
Wolves vs. Grizzlies
Wolves-2½
We're going against the Grizzlies again. The team is in free-fall and we don't expect improvements until Mike Conley returns from an achilles injury. Minnesota played and won last night and we look for another strong effort on Monday. Memphis has dropped 11 straight games (1-9-1 ATS) and averaged just 89 ppg before a 116-111 loss to Cleveland over the weekend. We don't put much into the 111 point effort when we consider the Cavs could have won that game by 30+ if they didn't let off the gas. The Grizzlies have lost eight in a row ATS at home and we'll go against them again. I'm recommending a play on Minnesota minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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DAVE PRICE
1* on Phoenix Suns +10.5
The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are starting to get too much love from oddsmakers. They are now double-digit home favorites over the Phoenix Suns tonight. This is a Suns team that went into Boston on Saturday and nearly pulled the upset, losing just 111-116 as 12.5-point dogs. I have no doubt they can hang around with the 76ers as well. The Suns are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. The Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Philadelphia. Take Phoenix.
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DUSTIN HAWKINS
Free Play on 76ers -10½ -112
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