-
Saturday 12-9-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
-
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #8 -3:47 PM
The Garland of Roses Stakes
6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#1 QUEZON
#4 MS LOCUST POINT
#3 ABSATOOTLY
#7 FRIEND OF LIBERTY
F.Y.I. folks ... The Garland of Roses is named for the Hobeau Farm color-bearer who won the 1974 Parlo Turf Handicap and 1975 Black Helen Handicap at the ages of 5 and 6, respectively. Here in the 24th running of The Garland, #1 QUEZON, the overall speed leader in this stakes test sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her last four starts. #4 MS LOCUST POINT has excellent early speed to compliment for this sprint, is the last profile leader, and has won three of her last five outings, and goes to the post for the "Saturday Feature" with the Jockey/Trainer tandem of Jorge Vargas and John Servis in her corner ... they've "whacked the tote board" with 57% of more than 100 entries saddled as a team to date.
-
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Aqueduct - Race #7 - Post: 3:17pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $57,000 Class Rating: 93
Rating: 3
#4 D'YER MAK'ER (ML=5/1)
#2 DISCRETIONARY MARQ (ML=3/1)
#10 MISSION COMMAND (ML=5/2)
#11 BENEVOLENCE (ML=3/1)
#12 LENNY (ML=8/1)
D'YER MAK'ER - Gelding is a few starts into a return to racing here. Should give a nice effort today. Lebron and Zito teamed up together are a horse gambler's friend. Finished off the board last out at Aqueduct, but was within five lengths of the winner. Opening at 5/1 makes me think he's got a chance. DISCRETIONARY MARQ - Horses out of the barn of Clement have been strong on the grass. Should do well in this race. The jock and conditioner combination here have a high winning percent when they work together. Came home fast last race out at Aqueduct. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this race. MISSION COMMAND - This animal has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the dist-surf. This colt is in fine condition, having run a good race on November 18th, finishing third. Widely used handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Today could be the day. This animal may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Coming home, he could put these away. BENEVOLENCE - McLaughlin brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this live gelding. You have to like this horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. He finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on November 12th. A sign he may take to turf. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should perform well today. Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. This animal has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 64 to 86 to 91 in a row. LENNY - I really like that most recent effort on November 24th at Finger Lakes where he ran first. The 93 recent race speed figure looks sound in the TrackMaster PPs.
Vulnerable Contenders: #3 OUTRAGEOUS BET (ML=6/1), #9 FLED (ML=8/1),
OUTRAGEOUS BET - Just don't figure that he is priced right at the expected odds. FLED - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance affairs recently. Not probable to see him doing it today either. The very long layoff will probably be too much to overcome for this racer.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #4 D'YER MAK'ER to win if you can get at least 6/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
-
Handicapped by Valuline at Fair Grounds
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Fair Grounds, Race 8 (Saturday December 9, 2017)
TRUST FACTOR
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
FG-8 1m1/16 TURF Nine Horses
"A" STK 3YUP $100,000
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
4 TRUST FACTOR 8/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
9 HARBOR PILOT 15/1 17% 5/1
6 FORT PULASKI 3/1 14% 6/1
-
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park - Race 2
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 $.50 Bet 3 (Races 2-3-4) / $.50 Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Stakes • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 2 • CR: 93 • Purse: $75,000 • Post: 12:17
WAIT A WHILE S. - (RAIL AT 84 FEET). FILLIES, TWO YEARS OLD. FREE NOMINATION BY SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 26. $750 TO ENTER. $75,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A STAKES RACE ALLOWED 2 LBS.; TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER, 4 LBS.; A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER, 6 LBS. STARTERS TO BE NAMED THROUGH THEENTRY BOX BY THE USUAL TIME OF CLOSING. SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MAY BE MADE AT TIME OF ENTRY. ALL FEES SHALL BE PAID PRIOR TO THE START OF THE RACE. THIS RACE WILL BE LIMITED TO 14 STARTERS, WITH ALSO ELIGIBLES. IF MORE THAN 14 HORSES ARE ENTERED, PREFERRENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO STAKES WINNERS, THEN BY HIGHEST CAREER EARNINGS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE)
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * STAINLESS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. FILFILA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SUBTLE STEP : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. HOMEMADE SALSA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6
STAINLESS
2/1
9/2
9
FILFILA
4/1
6/1
10
SUBTLE STEP
9/2
7/1
12
HOMEMADE SALSA
20/1
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
10
SUBTLE STEP
10
9/2
Front-runner
83
91
96.7
86.3
81.3
5
QUEEN ROSE
5
20/1
Front-runner
77
75
81.5
71.1
51.6
3
TEE UP
3
20/1
Front-runner
76
68
70.2
70.2
47.7
12
HOMEMADE SALSA
12
20/1
Stalker
87
82
90.1
76.8
69.3
9
FILFILA
9
4/1
Stalker
90
86
81.7
80.7
75.2
1
MY MASTERPIECE
1
12/1
Stalker
71
83
79.8
79.8
56.8
4
DESIGNING
4
12/1
Stalker
79
82
79.6
77.7
68.2
8
MALIBU SAINT
8
12/1
Stalker
83
83
55.2
76.3
60.3
6
STAINLESS
6
2/1
Trailer
96
80
78.7
87.2
79.2
2
GIFT OF GLORY
2
20/1
Trailer
83
81
75.4
68.7
52.2
11
GOLDEN ORB
11
8/1
Trailer
85
70
50.6
74.3
64.3
7
UNSTABLENTHEMORNIN
7
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
82
70
81.7
73.5
57.0
13
DI MARIA
13
30/1
Alternator/Non-contender
84
63
38.9
64.5
45.5
-
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $300000 Class Rating: 97
STARLET S. - GRADE 1 FOR TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $500 EACH TO ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION ON OR BEFORE THURSDAY, AUGUST 31, 2017. FOR ALL HORSES NOT NOMINATED, SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATIONS OF $10,000 EACH WILL CLOSE WITH 2 AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. ALL HORSES SHALL PAY $2,000 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX AND $3,000 ADDITIONAL TO START, WITH $300,000 GUARANTEED, WITH $180,000 TO
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 DREAM TREE 8/5
# 4 WAR HEROINE 9/5
# 2 PIEDI BIANCHI 5/2
My selection in this competition is DREAM TREE. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look quite good in this contest. Always good to invest in a conditioner with this kind of very strong win percentage - 33 percent - at this distance & surface. Will probably go to the front end and might never look back. WAR HEROINE - Overall the speed figs of this equine look strong in this contest. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. PIEDI BIANCHI - Looks formidable for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in dirt route races recently. With a nice class fig average of 94, has one of the most respectable class advantages in this group of animals.
-
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #5 - Post: 2:06pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,600 Class Rating: 81
Rating: 3
#10 JOLSON (ML=9/2)
#4 FATHER DENNIS (ML=6/1)
#3 SECRET INVASION (ML=5/1)
#11 KID TWIST (ML=5/2)
JOLSON - Trainer Cobb moves this animal to a lower level to face a lower rated field. Look for a strong race given this drop. Last time out, finished fifth on a sloppy track at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. Will most certainly do better in this event. Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st ride on November 18th. Should be acquainted with the horse even better in today's contest. FATHER DENNIS - Last workout was the second fastest of the day. Undeniably on edge for a good one today. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last time around the track at Thistledown. SECRET INVASION - Racing over a familiar track, where he has won multiple times before, I have to put this horse at the top of my list of contenders. KID TWIST - Have to make this gelding a solid contender; he comes off a solid effort on November 26th. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (63-66-76) make this animal a dominant contender.
Vulnerable Contenders: #12 COTTONWOOD CANYON (ML=8/1),
COTTONWOOD CANYON - This animal hasn't shown much life in the last pair of events.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #10 JOLSON to win if we can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
-
F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs
Tampa Bay Downs - Race 7
Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 7-8-9) / Pick 4 ($.50 minimum) (Races 7-8-9-10) Super High 5
Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 3:35P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (CONDITION ELIGIBILITY). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND FORTY YARDS.).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * TEN PENNY PRINCESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KISSKISS TELLTELL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. EVIL TWIN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SOPHIESHARDTOCATCH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6
TEN PENNY PRINCESS
5/2
5/1
7
KISSKISS TELLTELL
3/1
6/1
4
EVIL TWIN
7/2
6/1
5
SOPHIESHARDTOCATCH
6/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
3
CLOUDED APPEAL
3
10/1
Alternator/Stalker
84
76
88.2
50.2
41.7
5
SOPHIESHARDTOCATCH
5
6/1
Alternator/Stalker
77
72
81.0
74.2
68.2
6
TEN PENNY PRINCESS
6
5/2
Alternator/Stalker
84
79
75.8
78.4
71.9
4
EVIL TWIN
4
7/2
Alternator/Stalker
90
84
74.0
69.2
61.2
7
KISSKISS TELLTELL
7
3/1
Trailer
86
86
65.6
76.8
70.8
2
ANONYMOUS
2
12/1
Trailer
77
70
63.2
66.2
56.7
1
MOXIE
1
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72
66
61.1
67.2
55.2
8
STARLA
8
15/1
Alternator/Non-contender
72
73
47.2
58.0
43.5
-
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 1 - Final - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 89
QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR QUARTER HORSES, THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH FAILED TO QUALIFY FOR THE AQRA - TURF PARADISE OPEN QUARTER HORSE DERBY. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. $100 TO ENTER. 1ST PREFERENCE: DERBY TRIAL ALSO RANS. 2ND PREFERENCE BASED ON EARNINGS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 SWEET BABIE JAMES 8/5
# 4 CC BROOKS BIG BOY 7/2
# 5 LT MANUP 6/1
My choice here is SWEET BABIE JAMES. Ran a solid last race. Must be given a chance given the class of races run lately. Has recorded sound speed figures in short races in the past. CC BROOKS BIG BOY - He has earned formidable figs under today's conditions and should fare well against this group of horses. Had one of the most respectable Equibase Speed Figs of this group of horses in his last race. LT MANUP - Saldana has this colt travelling well and is a strong choice based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figures posted in short races lately. Arvizu ought to be able to get this colt to break out early in here.
-
Mike Wynn
Free Play: Free Pick Early St Bonaventure -8 Over Yale
-
Free Selection from Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 9, 2017
12/09 12:00 PM PT / 3:00 PM ET
CF (103) ARMY VS (104) NAVY
Take: (103) ARMY
Reason: Your free play for Saturday, December 9, 2017 is in the College football game between Army and Navy. Army has a chance to win the Commander-in-chief trophy here today with a win over the Middies of Navy. Army won last year in Baltimore, 21-17, snapping a 14 year losing streak in this annual matchup. Don't expect to see many passes in this game as both these option teams will ground and pound this game. This game is run by the QB's, but not through the air, through the ground. Ahmad Bradshaw of Army has rushed for 1,472 yards and 11 TD's while Navy's Zach Abey has 1,322 yards and 14 TD's. Expect another hard-nosed effort here by both clubs. These games are usually low scoring (38 points the last two years and 27 the year before). Can't believe there is a 46 point total on this game. Play the UNDER. Army getting some points here is just too much to pass on. Take Army.
-
Jeff Allen Sports
Saturday's Free Selection is on the St Louis Blues
-
Razor Sharp
YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take BALL ST -2 over Valparaiso
-
Totals4U
Early Saturday's Free Selection: St Joseph's/Temple over 147
-
John Anthony Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Kent State Golden Flashes + 4
-
Atlantic Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: VCU + 12 1/2
-
#1 Sports
Early Saturday's Free Selection: Butler Bulldogs - 25 1/2
-
Huddle Up Sports
Free Play: Indiana +10
-
Hawkeye Sports
Early Saturday's Free Pick: Western Michigan - 5 1/2
-
Golden Dragon Sports
Free Pick Marquette +6
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
Reply With Quote