Sunday 12-10-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Super Contest Classic Top 5

(30-35 overall, but 12-3 last 3 weeks)


PHI +2 / MIN -2.5 / SEA +2.5 / GB -3 / BAL +5

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Super Contest Classic leader Grannys Boy (44-18-3)

DET Pick / BUF -3 / CAR +2.5 / NYJ Pick / DAL -4


Gold leader BrettFavre444 (39-25-1)

ATL Pick (WIN on TNF) TB Pick / CLE +3 / PHI +2 / PIT -5

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BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NFL PICK (Broncos +1.5)

I know the Broncos have lost 9 straight and fresh off a blowout loss at Miami, but I just don’t trust New York on the road. The Jets are just 1-4 SU away from home this season and the lone win was at Cleveland by a mere 3-points. A game they had no business winning, as the Browns outgained them by more than 200 yards.
I also think the perception here is that the Broncos have thrown in the towel on this season. It certainly looks that way after their ugly showing against the Dolphins, but I think there’s still some fight left in this team. No professional team likes to get embarrassed and more times than not a team will come back off a bad loss with a big time effort. I think we get that here from Denver on their home field.
Denver’s lackluster offense has been a big reason for their struggles this season, as there’s still a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I think this is a game where the Broncos can get something going on the offensive side of the ball.
Kansas City’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse going into last week’s game against the Jets and they exploded for 31 points and nearly 500 yards of offense, with Alex Smith throwing for 366 yards and 4 scores. I look for Trevor Siemian to bounce back from a poor game against the Dolphins with one of his better performances and if the offense can get going, the defense should be able to feed off that.
Keep in mind this is still an elite Denver defense, that comes in ranked 5th in the NFL against the run (92 ypg) and 4th against the pass (207 ypg). Kansas City’s struggling defense made the Jets offense look like an offensive juggernaut last week. That simply isn’t going to be the case this week.
Against the Chiefs, New York had just under 43 minutes in time of possession with 30 first downs. That’s not something they have been able to replicate and the Jets are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they had more than 34 minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. New York is also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after giving up 25 or more points in 2 straight games. Give me the Broncos +1.5!

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JOHN MARTIN

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5

I think price is right to pull the trigger on the Jacksonville Jaguars as only 2.5-point home favorites over the Seattle Seahawks. The Jaguars just get no love despite winning five of their last six games with four of those wins coming by 12 points or more. They have the best defense in the NFL, and they lead the league in pass defense and sacks. That makes this a brutal matchup for the Seahawks, who have no running game and one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And this is an awful spot for the Seahawks. They are coming off a massive home win over the Eagles, and now they have to travel East to face the Jaguars in a letdown spot. We just need the Jaguars to win by a field goal to get the cover Sunday, and I think they show they are one of the best teams in the NFL and get the job done. Give me the Jaguars.

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DOUG UPSTONE
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Packers vs. Browns
UNDER 40

Green Bay for the most part is struggling to score and we know Cleveland is. In this situation, Play Under on road teams against the total like the Packers with +/- 3 PPG differential, against a team with -8 to -10 PPG differential, after 8 or more games. In the last nine years, this situation is sensational 23-3!

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LARRY NESS

My 1* Free Play is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:30 EST).

The 7-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Pittsburgh to take on the 10-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this on favors the visitors.
Baltimore has won three straight. Pittsburgh enters off a come-from-behind 23-20 win over Cincinnati on Monday night. Note that this is a revenge game for the Ravens after they fell 26-9 to the Steelers in the first meeting back on October 1st.
Baltimore enters off an impressive 44-20 destruction of Detroit, as QB Joe Flacco was 23 of 36 for 269 yards, two TD’s and zero INT’s.
Steelers’ veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger was 24 of 40 for 290 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pittsburgh’s defense took a hit though with an inury to LB Ryan Shazier, who has 89 tackles and three INT’s this season.
I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 2-1 ATS in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Pittsburgh is just 2-4 ATS this season after two or more consecutive SU victories.
While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points in this one.
Good luck…Larry

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ALEX SMART
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Jets vs. Broncos
Jets-1

Denver, which has lost eight in a row after a 3-1 start enters into this game in a shambles. HC Vance Joseph's first year as head coach hasn't gone as planned, and the entire team looks to be on the verge of mutiny. Meanwhile, the Jets behind veteran quarterback Josh McCown are doing well in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season. The experienced QB has 18 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions while playing every snap this season. Of the Jets' seven losses the jets have suffered during this campaign, only one has been by double digits, and they've had a fourth-quarter lead in three others and are a very under rated squad. I'm betting the NFL offensive player of the week (McCown) and a cohesive blue collar group will once again be the catalyst behind a Jets victory here today.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS L/11 vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better in the second half of the season.DENVER is 3-12 ATS L/15 versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 yards/play or more in the second half of the season over the L/few seasons.DENVER is 0-8 ATS in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season and have failed to cover 8 straight games.
NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (DENVER) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after scoring 3 points or less in the first half last game are 9-34 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 79% for bettors.
Play on the NY Jets to cover

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JACK JONES

Jack’s Free Pick Sunday: Bears/Bengals OVER 38.5

Certainly there’s not a lot to like about both of these offenses. However, there is a lot to like about these offenses when you consider just how banged up both defenses are heading into this game. I look for plenty of points to push this game OVER the 38.5-point total Sunday.
Three defensive starters have been sitting out practice this week for Chicago in DL Eddie Goldman, LB Pernell McPhee and safety Adrian Amos. They were already missing LB Jerrell Freeman, LB Willie Young and DL Mitch Unrein. The Bears have given up 420 yards to the Eagles and 388 yards to the 49ers the past two weeks.
Who isn’t injured on the Bengals this week? The roster was decimated by injuries following the Monday Night Football game against the Steelers. Cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick and LB Vontaze Burfict are in concussion protocol and unlikely to suit up. Cornerbacks Adam Jones and Darqueze Dennard, along with LB Nick Vigil and S Shawn Williams, are all nursing injuries. The Bengals could be without their entire starting secondary this week. Even Mitch Trubisky should be able to take advantage of it.
Both of these teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, so don’t expect too much intensity on the defensive side of the ball. Five of the last seven Bengals’ games have seen 43 or more combined points. Given that trend, there’s certainly some value with the OVER 38.5. The Bengals should do their fair share as they have scored 20 or more points in nine of their last 11 games. Andy Dalton is playing at a very high level this season.
Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 (Cincinnati) - in non-conference games, off a division game are 38-10 (79.2%) ATS over the last five seasons. Plays on the OVER on road teams against the total (Chicago) - a poor offensive team scoring 17 or fewer points per game, after scoring 17 or less in two straight games are 28-7 (80%) over the last five seasons. Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

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ART ARONSON

1* Free Play Tennessee Titans.

We had a play on Tennessee last week and it would get the job done in its 24-13 victory over Houston. The Titans are dead-locked with the Jaguars for the AFC South lead and face a tough two game road trip in the Pacific Northwest, facing the Cardinals this week and then at San Francisco. Note though that the Titans have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 6-3 ATS in their last nine non-conference games and and 2-1 ATS in their last three as a road favorite of three points or less. Conversely, this is a spot in which Arizona has struggled, going just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and only 4-14 ATS in its last 18 against teams with winning records. After last week’s 32-16 setback to division rival LA, we think the home side comes in “hung over” from that big disappointment. Consider laying the points on the red hot Titans!
AAA Sports

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MARC LAWRENCE

Play - Cleveland Browns (Game 118).

Edges - Browns: 10-2 ATS home versus non-conference foes in the first of consecutive home games… Packers: 2-9 ATS versus sub .500 AFC foes, as well as 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS against sub .444 AFC North opponents… With that look for the Packers to slip to 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as road chalk here today. We recommend a 1* play on Cleveland. Thank you and good luck as always.

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DENNIS MACKLIN

DMack's Free Play for Sunday, December 10, 2017, is on the Cowboys/Giants Over

McAdoo and Reece are gone and Eli is back but that doesn't affect the product the Giants put on the field which at this point is pretty poor. At 6-6, the Cowboys are on a respirator for the playoffs and have the toughest schedule down the stretch of any of the peripheral teams. Sean Lee is back to anchor the defense and a win here and at Oakland next week would put Dallas as 8-6 with a home game vs. Seattle and at Philly to finish the season. Zeke is reliable in the Christmas EVE game against Seattle. Regardless, the Cowboys need help and lot of it. Pokes here have had extra time and face Giant offense that turns the ball over regardless of who is quarterbacking and is just 10-41 on third down the last three games. Big Blue defense is worn down and tired and has just been on the field too long. Giants won in Week One 19-3 but that was with just 16 points in four visits to the red zone. They'll hit paydirt several time here. Putting the Cowboys on 30+ and will count on Eli getting 10+ to put us over the total.

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CARLO CAMPANELLA
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Packers vs. Browns
Packers-3

The Browns are 0-12 and kust fired their GM, Sashi Brown, this week. This is a team thats still very far from rebuilding and you have to think there's NO incentive for them to win this game as it would be much better to give the new GM the 1st overall pick in this Aprils draft. Toss in the fact that the Browns have lost ALL 12 games to this point with ALL 12 losses coming by 3 points or more, which is Sunday's point spread- with 8 of the 12 losses have all been by 9 points or more! The Packers are only -3 point road chalk even knowing that Sunday's weather in Cleveland will be 25 degrees with high winds and cloudy. That benefits a Packer's crew depending more on their running game since starting QB Hundley in place of star QB Rogers. No reason why Green Bay should only be favored by a Fieldgoal against a winless team as they're 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four without Rogers, including a 26-20 victory last weekend over Tampa Bay- both losses came against Playoff-caliber teams, the Steelers and Ravens.

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PRO COMPUTER GAMBLER
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Vikings vs. Panthers
Panthers+3 -120

KEY NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK: Since 2004,teams playing their second straight road game or more are, on the blind, 509-411-20 (55.3% ATS). By simply playing a lot on the road (that's it, nothing else), it seems that teams, Automatically get Under-valued. - Take the Colts, Redskins, Vikings (so tread lightly on this free pick), Eagles, Eagles, and 49ers
FREE KEY SYSTEM: Teams are 55-38-1 ATS since 2002 after a game where the longest rush allowed in the previous game was 72 yards or more. (20171210, 'Panthers'), (20171210, 'Texans')
The Panthers are 11-4 ATS (7.20 ppg) since Dec 07, 2014 as a dog

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TEDDY COVERS

Recommendation: Take Oakland – Kansas City OVER 48.5 (#113-114):

Teddy is coming off yet another winning NFL Report in Week 13. He enters this weekend riding a 74% All Sports Run to open the month of December. And Teddy is SCORCHING HOT (86%) in College Hoops! Don’t miss a single ‘right side’ cash all weekend long!
The first meeting between these two teams was a legitimate shootout, a 31-30 Raiders victory that flew Over the total by two touchdowns. Even before the late penalty shenanigans that allowed Oakland to steal the game with an untimed down on their final play, the Over was never in doubt. The two teams combined to gain a full 7.0 yards per play, and the two defenses generated a grand total of one sack and zero turnovers in 133 total snaps.
We can expect both defenses to struggle getting stops in the rematch as well. Based on Football Outsiders advanced metrics, the Raiders defense ranks #32 in the NFL; the Chiefs #30, with both teams well below league average against the run and the pass.
KC’s defense is a sieve right now, coming off a truly dismal showing against the Jets last week – zero sacks, zero turnovers forced in 85 snaps. They allowed 38 points, 30 first downs and total 488 yards, all season highs. In fact, Bob Sutton’s stop unit has only forced one turnover in their last four games combined, not exactly a defense loaded with playmakers right now. This week, KC won’t have pro bowl cornerback Marcus Peters (suspended), offsetting the probable absence of Raiders WR Amari Cooper (ankle). Even with Darrelle Revis in the mix, this is NOT a good pass defense right now, bad news against Derek Carr and company.
And even without Amari Cooper, the Raiders offense will get a boost with the return of Michael Crabtree from his one game suspension. Offensive coordinator Todd Downing: “It's great having him back out at practice. He brings an energy and brings a personality that kind of gets guys going a little bit and makes it fun to be out there. It's certainly awesome to have his talent back.”
The Raiders defense is every bit as bad, a squad with a grand total of ONE interception all season, and even that was lucky – Navarro Bowman made the pick while laying on the ground in the end zone; the ball tipped right to him. And that pick came against Paxton Lynch, so they have zero INT’s against anything resembling a decent quarterback this season, remarkable for a Week 14 matchup. Both teams rank in the bottom quartile of the NFL in sack percentage, which means that both Derek Carr and Alex Smith should have some clean pockets to throw from. On a beautiful sunny December afternoon at Arrowhead, we should expect a Shootout. Take the Over.

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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Dec 10, 2017
Luzern vs. FC Zürich
OVER 2½ -145

This soccer match takes place in Switzerland on Sunday morning. I think we see a 2-1 score so take the over, which is set at 2.5.

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MIKE LUNDIN
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Redskins vs. Chargers
OVER 46½

The Washington Redskins will visit the L.A. Chargers at StubHub Center Sunday afternoon, and I think we'll see a high-scoring affair. The Redskins took a 38-14 loss at Dallas last Thursday and need a win here to keep their almost non-existent playoff hopes alive. Over is 14-3 in Redskins last 17 games following a straight up loss and 6-1 in their last seven games in December. I expect a big game for rookie running back Samaje Perine against one of the worst run defenses in the league.
The Chargers have allowed just a total of 16 points through their last two games, but first they played a Cowboys team still adjusting to the loss of Zeke Elliot and most recently the Browns.
Both Kirk Cousins and Philipp Rivers are solid quarterbacks more than capable of airing it out.
My free pick is on WAS @ LAC to go over the total.

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Sunday, December 10, 2017

NFL (111) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (112) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Take: (111) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Reason: Your free play for Sunday, December 10, 2017 is in the NFL scheduled contest between the Seattle Seahawks and the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Seattle Seahawks got a huge win last week against the NFC's top ranked team, Philadelphia. The Jaguars are a favorite here, but they need to play a little more conservative than they have in the past. The Jags can prove they belong in the playoff run with a win today. Seattle allows just 98 ypg on the road and with Fourtnette nursing a sore ankle, the Jags may have to rely more on QB Bortels, which is never a good thing. Russell Wilson has been proving he's the best QB in the NFL with seven consecutive multi-TD passing games. Add to that he's the team leading rusher and Wilson is the offense on this team. I like Seattle here as they currently are the No5 Seed in the NFC. They need this win heading to LA Rams next week.

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CHIP CHIRIMBES

Chicago at Cincinnati 1:00 ET

Bears (+) over Thugs

That makes four straight weeks that these criminal thugs from Cincinnati have had a player disqualified for dirty play. Marvin ('Which Hit' do you mean?) Lewis condones his players actions and they really just play for 'bounty' and not victories which they never have enough of. Chicago of course couldn't beat a Niners team that didn't score a touchdown and had won only one game. But, with Mitch Trabisky leading the way the Bears can play with this bunch of thugs (Even AJ Green). Take CHICAGO!

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SCOTT SPREITZER
NFL | Dec 10, 2017
Raiders vs. Chiefs
Raiders+4

I'm taking the points with the Raiders on Sunday. As we stated on our ESPN-Las Vegas radio show back in August, we have an Under 9 wins ticket on the KC Chiefs. Obviously, after five weeks we were ready to put it in the loss column. We also couldn't believe the Chiefs were winning week-in, week-out. Yes, rookie RB Kareem Hunt was the recipient of terrific run blocking, but the defense stunk...and we knew it. Reality finally caught up with KC, including up front on offense. Hunt has gone from 6 yards per carry when life was good, to 3 yards per carry over the last several games. The lack of a ground game has put the onus of the offense on the arm of Alex Smith and it's not working...he's not that type of QB. We don't believe there will be a great turnaround since the loss to the Jets last Sunday. The defense is what it is and the offensive line is mediocre. Oakland has won three of four with the lone loss coming against mighty New England in Mexico City. Derek Carr lit-up the KC defense in Oakland's 31-30 win, which was KC's second loss of the season - the Chiefs still believed they were a conference championship contender at that time. Now there's some doubt that a divisional win is in the cards. We note that NFL home favorites playing .450 to .550 football on the season have covered just 14 of 52 (0-8 ATS last 8 times) after being beaten by 35 points or more ATS over their last three games. And Oakland owns a nice 14-7 ATS road dog mark with Derek Carr behind the center. I'm recommending a play on the Raiders plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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Vikings vs. Panthers Preview and Predictions

By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
by Gracenote on 12/08/2017

The Minnesota Vikings have the inside track for the top seed in the NFC at the three-quarter mark of the season and put their eight-game winning streak on the line when they visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday. Minnesota, which holds the tiebreaker with Philadelphia for the No. 1 seed, has a chance to clinch the NFC North title.

While the Vikings hold the tiebreaker over Philadelphia for home field throughout the playoffs, coach Mike Zimmer is more concerned with the immediate task at hand against an opponent also in contention for a division title. "We've got four games left," Zimmer said. "My only thoughts are on the Carolina Panthers and trying to get a win this week. All that stuff is nice to talk about, but for us we'll go about our business." Carolina had a four-game winning streak snapped at New Orleans last week in a showdown for first place in the NFC South, but it sits one game behind the Saints and two back of Minnesota. "There's still things in our future that can get us on the right track again," acknowledged quarterback Cam Newton of the Panthers, who play their next three games at home.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Vikings -3. O/U: 41

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (10-2): Minnesota improved to 3-0 against NFC South competition with an impressive 14-9 road win at Atlanta last week, limiting the defending conference champion to three field goals and 275 total yards. The Vikings lead the NFC in scoring defense (17.0 points) and are the league's best third-down defense, holding Atlanta to 1-for-10 in such situations. Quarterback Case Keenum posted his fourth consecutive 100-plus passer rating and completed a season-high 83.3 percent of his passes at Atlanta, giving him five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past three games. Wideout Adam Thielen (74 receptions) is Keenum's top target while Latavius Murray has stabilized the running game with seven straight games of at least 15 carries.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (8-4): Newton has rushed for at least 50 yards in five of the seven games, and he may be on the run again facing a Minnesota defense that sacked him eight times in a 22-10 win last season. Newton, who has six touchdown passes and no interceptions in the past three games, could be bolstered by the return of tight end Greg Olsen and center Ryan Kalil, who have each missed the bulk of the season due to injuries but are on track to play. Devin Funchess has thrived since the trade of top wideout Kelvin Benjamin with 21 receptions and three TDs in four games since the deal. Linebacker Thomas Davis (hamstring) is a question mark for a defense that coach Ron Rivera said was "embarrassed" by last week's performance.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Keenum is averaging 275.3 passing yards with 10 TDs and three interceptions in his last four road games.

2. Panthers RB Jonathan Stewart is averaging a career-worst 3.2 yards per game.

3. Vikings DE Everson Griffen ranks fourth in the league with 12 sacks.

PREDICTION: Panthers 20, Vikings 17