Fade Elite Teams

Contrarian bettors buy on bad news (injuries, teams off a loss, fading the public). They also sell high on teams and a great opportunity is wagering against the league’s best late in the season.

After a dozen games, casual fans know which teams are elite (Patriots, Steelers, Eagles and Vikings). Winning squads attract a disproportionate amount of recreational action, which leads to lopsided betting. Oddsmakers account for this and inflate the line for the NFL’s top tier.

Bettors can profit by simply going against teams with a winning percentage of greater than 80%. If we eliminate games where two elite teams play each other and focus on just teams getting less than 50% of spread bets, fading elite teams has gone 91-64-2 (58.7%) ATS, +21.55 units since 2003.



Games that match:

Panthers vs. Vikings: 70% of spread tickets are on Minnesota who opened as 1-point road favorites. Sharps bought back on Carolina (+3) triggering reverse line movement bet signals at Sports Insights. The Vikings are currently 2.5-point favorites.

Rams vs. Eagles: This is a critical matchup between two of the NFC’s best in the battle for a first round bye and home field advantage in the playoffs. The Rams are favored by 2-points at home but less than 30% of spread bets are taking Jared Goff and Todd Gurley. Bettors are unfazed by the Eagles’ flop against the Seahawks.

Dolphins vs. Patriots: Miami snapped a five-game losing streak with an impressive 35-9 victory on Sunday but oddsmakers aren’t giving them any credit for beating the putrid Denver Broncos (lost eight in a row). New England is favored by 11-points on the road and at the time of publication 77% of spread bets are on the Pats.

Ravens at Steelers: This game technically does not match this betting system. While the Ravens are facing the Steelers (.833 win percentage), Baltimore is getting a majority of spread bets as 6-point underdogs. It’s early in the week and the betting percentages are likely to change, keep checking the free odds page for updated line movement.