John Ryan

Dec 14 '17, 8:25 PM in 3h
NFL | Broncos vs Colts
Play on: Broncos -2½ -115 at BMaker

The Play and How to Play it:
The Play: Denver (301)
The Matchup: DENVER (4 - 9) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 10)
Start Time: Week 15 Thursday, 12/14/2017 8:25 PM
SIM grading: 4 stars on a 3 to 10 star grading scale.
Recommended Strategy: Place a 4 star wager amount on Denver using the line.
Fundamental Matchups and Data Metrics
Colts will have trouble establishing long scoring drives against Denver. It starts for the Denver Defense with Bradley Roby, who ranks second in the NFL in forced incompletions. When QB’s have tried to complete passes with Roby defending they have been unsuccessful in 34% of those attempts. So, logically, we do expect that T.Y. Hilton will not see many targets given that Roby will more than likely be the defender.
The Colts ranks 31st gaining just 291 yards per game and will be going against the best defense in the NFL that allows 281 YPG.
Game Intelligence Analytics
The following database system query has gone 38-13 ATS hitting 75% winners and has made $2,370 wagering $100 per game since 2007. The system has also produced a consistent 23-8 ATS record over the past five seasons.
Play against all teams in conference games where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS).
After going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games.
SIM Matching Game Situations
Colts are a terrible 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after scoring 17 points or less in 3 straight games.
Denver is a solid 52-30 ATS (+19.0 Units) when they allow 75 to 100 rushing yards.
Colts are 16-33 ATS (-20.3 Units) when they gain 6 to 6.5 net passing yards-per-attempt.
Colts are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when they commit 2 turnovers over the last 3 seasons.