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Thread: Thursday 12-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Thursday 12-14-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

    RACE #6 - AQUEDUCT - 3:20 PM EASTERN POST
    8.0 FURLONGS DIRT MAIDEN FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $40,000.00 CLAIMING $41,000.00 PURSE

    #3 GOT THE GIST
    #2 PRINCESS MIKAYAH
    #4 FOREVER RISING
    #7 LUCKY BUG

    #3 GOT THE GIST qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in four straight, hitting the board in a pair ... she goes to the post with the skills of the Jockey/Trainer tandem of Ricardo Santana Jr. and Steve Asmussen in her corner ... they've hit the board with 51% of more than 250 entries saddled as a team to date. #2 PRINCESS MIKAYAH, an 8-1 shot, has produced a pair of "POWER RUNS" in her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN SHOW" finish in her 2nd race back.

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 9 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 67

    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 14 WHERE EAGLES FLY 7/5

    # 11 BE BACK 1/1

    # 2 VENEZUELAN KING 15/1

    I've got to go with WHERE EAGLES FLY. Clouston has a solid winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 70 speed figure put up in his last outing. Looks respectable for the conditions of this affair today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races recently. BE BACK - Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong Equibase speed figs (60 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Is a definite contender - given the 65 Equibase Speed Figure from his most recent race. VENEZUELAN KING - The odds could be right on this one.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Evangeline Downs

    Evangeline Downs - Race 5

    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)


    Claiming $10,000 • 220 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 77 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 7:15P
    QUARTER HORSE 220Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * VFGO MAX GO: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DSS SISSYS JET: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BYE BYE AGOUTI: Horse ranks in the top three in Tra ckMaster Power Rating. EYEWANTBUX: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating.
    2
    VFGO MAX GO
    12/1

    5/1
    4
    FIRE ON EASE
    6/1

    6/1
    10
    DSS SISSYS JET
    5/2

    7/1
    9
    BYE BYE AGOUTI
    7/2

    7/1
    3
    EYEWANTBUX
    6/1

    10/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    MRS PIGEON
    1

    10/1
    Average
    63

    65

    5.8

    0.0

    0.0
    2
    VFGO MAX GO
    2

    12/1
    Average
    89

    72

    4.8

    0.0

    0.0
    3
    EYEWANTBUX
    3

    6/1
    Average
    62

    77

    4.2

    0.0

    0.0
    4
    FIRE ON EASE
    4

    6/1
    Slow
    77

    83

    8.5

    0.0

    0.0
    5
    SHEZAFAMOUSMOON
    5

    9/2
    Slow
    69

    64

    7.0

    0.0

    0.0
    6
    MIRACULOUS MIRANDA
    6

    20/1
    Average
    71

    65

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0
    7
    MOMS TOUGH GAME
    7

    15/1
    Fast
    70

    61

    1.6

    0.0

    0.0
    8
    SIZZLING TEE
    8

    12/1
    Average
    74

    64

    4.1

    0.0

    0.0
    9
    BYE BYE AGOUTI
    9

    7/2
    Slow
    78

    74

    7.2

    0.0

    0.0
    10
    DSS SISSYS JET
    10

    5/2
    Average
    78

    78

    4.7

    0.0

    0.0

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 80

    FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 7 MALIBU ROYALTY 10/1

    # 1 SANDSTORM 6/1

    # 6 GOLDEN AMBER 4/1

    MALIBU ROYALTY looks to be a very strong contender and could score at a price in here. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 75 speed rating which is one of the best in this group of animals. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 79 - of her last outing. SANDSTORM - With a strong 79 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. Ought to come out very solid - I have liked the way this filly has moved quickly to the front end recently. GOLDEN AMBER - She has a good opportunity in this competition as handler, Cox, has sharp win rate with horses going this distance. Must be considered a solid contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone.

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Gulfstream Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:35pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $33,000 Class Rating: 83

    Rating: 3

    #8 BLESSED VENEZUELA (ML=6/1)
    #3 BURKE'S GARDEN (ML=6/1)
    #1 SUPER WITCH (ML=4/1)
    #12 LA CHICA RIPOOL (ML=20/1)
    #10 BERNATINA (ML=9/2)


    BLESSED VENEZUELA - I think Gulfstream Park players know a good thing when they see the jockey/conditioner duo of Jaramillo and Zerpa. Their win percentage together has been wonderful. The trainer here (Zerpa) has a highly positive ROI with first-timers. BURKE'S GARDEN - May be extremely hard to beat this noble animal on the sod today. Last time out scored a nice turf fig, the highest of any of these animals. Equibase speed figs on the grass point to this mount as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this distance & surface. This mount ran out of the money at Keeneland last out on the soft turf. She should improve in this event under normal track conditions. SUPER WITCH - This filly has been posting some excellent workout times. It looks like Gaffalione had to be more familiar with this filly on Sep 28th when riding her for the initial time. Back on again today. This filly is number one in earnings per race. Check out this thoroughbred in the saddling ring. LA CHICA RIPOOL - Trainer, Negrete, has been deliberate with this filly off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. I'm focusing on the class of this beautiful animal, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. BERNATINA - Running on the grass today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. You'll be making money right and left by turning your bankroll onto this jockey/handler combination. The 75 most recent race speed fig looks good on paper.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #9 KITTEN'S COVERGIRL (ML=5/1),

    KITTEN'S COVERGIRL - I'm predicting a lackluster go out of her this time out.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Have to go with #8 BLESSED VENEZUELA on the win end if we get at least 4/1 odds

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [3,8] Box [8,12]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    [1,3,8] with [1,3,8,10,12] with [1,3,8,10,12] Total Cost: $36

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    [3,8] with [1,3,8] with [1,3,8,10,12] with [1,3,8,10,12] Total Cost: $24

    SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
    [1,3,8] with [1,3,8,10,12] with [1,3,8,10,12] with [1,3,8,10,12] with [1,3,8,10,12] Total Cost: $72

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

    Penn National - Race 5

    W-P-S / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / $0.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)


    Claiming $16,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $21,900 • Post: 7:49P
    (PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, IF FOR $14,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MAGRITTE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SPEIGHTSHILL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. STOLEN LOVE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MIDNIGHT RUMBLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the t op three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MAGRITTE: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
    5
    SPEIGHTSHILL
    9/2

    6/1
    4
    STOLEN LOVE
    7/2

    6/1
    3
    MIDNIGHT RUMBLE
    3/1

    6/1
    1
    MAGRITTE
    5/1

    7/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    MAGRITTE
    1

    5/1
    Front-runner
    94

    93

    99.0

    77.0

    69.0
    5
    SPEIGHTSHILL
    5

    9/2
    Stalker
    96

    100

    80.4

    92.0

    84.5
    3
    MIDNIGHT RUMBLE
    3

    3/1
    Stalker
    96

    96

    75.6

    89.4

    83.4
    4
    STOLEN LOVE
    4

    7/2
    Alternator/Stalker
    100

    94

    83.8

    90.4

    85.4
    6
    COUSIN STEPHEN
    6

    4/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    93

    87

    61.8

    82.4

    73.4
    7
    FIRE ALARM
    7

    6/1
    Trailer
    98

    86

    66.2

    78.0

    67.5
    2
    ORE PASS
    2

    10/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    93

    85

    81.6

    85.0

    76.0

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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Turfway Park - Race #2 - Post: 6:45pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,100 Class Rating: 79

    Rating: 4

    #5 CAM (ML=5/1)
    #9 BACKLASH (ML=3/1)


    CAM - When this jock and handler combine forces you have to take a look. Lagunes and Fletcher have been terrific together. Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Belterra Park last time out. That event had a class rating of 86 and he is moving down right here. A certain solid contender. Stay with this horse. No other viable early speed gives this horse a strong chance at the winner's circle. This gelding has been training well, and the recent bullet work says he's primed for a nice effort today. BACKLASH - Don't often see a beneficial ROI like +27. This rider/handler tandem has done well together over the last twelve months. Have to give this gelding a good chance. Ran a sharp contest last time around the track within the last month or so.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #8 ARSENALOFDEMOCRACY (ML=4/1), #6 STRONG RESPONSE (ML=5/1), #1 WAR READY (ML=5/1),

    ARSENALOFDEMOCRACY - The Brain cautions me to keep my distance from horses in short distance races that haven't finished in the money in short distance affairs of late. WAR READY - Difficult to support any vulnerable equine in a sprint race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Play #5 CAM to win if you can get odds of 9/5 or more

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [5,9]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    None

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    None

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    Jim Feist

    Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, December 14, 2017

    NBA (501) DETROIT PISTONS VS (502) ATLANTA HAWS

    Take: (501) DETROIT PISTONS

    Reason: Your Free play for Thursday, December 13, 2017 is on the Detroit Pistons. The Pistons are in desperate need of a win and tonight's opponent provides just the fodder for that win. The Hawks haven't been a good team, losing four straight. While Detroit hasn't won in a while, they are much better than this losing streak has shown. Look for Detroit to bounce back and snap their losing streak tonight. Take Detroit.

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    Arthur Ralph Sports

    THURS Nets 1 1/2

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    MARC LAWRENCE

    Play - Broncos-Colts OVER 41 (Game 301).

    Edges - Broncos: 2-0 OVER in games following a shutout win; and 4-2 OVER last six Thursday night games… Colts: 7-2 OVER last nine Thursday games… With these two teams having played OVER in the total in each of the last four meetings in this series, we recommend a 1* play on the OVER total in this game. Thank you and good luck as always.

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    RED DOG SPORTS
    Soccer | Dec 14, 2017
    Cittadella vs. Lazio
    under 3.5

    Take under 3.5 in the soccer match between Lazio and Cittadella, which takes place on Thursday afternoon in Italy. I think we see a 2-1 type of score.

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    LARRY NESS

    My 1* Free Play is on the Detroit Pistons (7:35 EST).

    Detroit will clearly be desperate here as it comes into this one having lost seven straight, most recently a 103-84 home loss to Denver.

    Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the hapless Hawks come into this one having lost four straight themselves, most recently a 123-114 road setback in Cleveland.

    And if recent history is any precedence, then Detroit has to be loving its chances to get off the schneid, because when these teams met back on November 10th, the Pistons pulled away for the 111-104 home win.

    So far Detroit averages 102.4 PPG and concedes 102.3. Tobias Harris leads the charge with 18.2 points, plus 5.5 boards per game.

    The Hawks average 103.9 PPG and concede 109.3. Dennis Schroeder leads the team with 20.2 points and 6.4 assists per game.

    I’ll point out though that Detroit is already 2-1 ATS this year after playing three consecutive home games and 2-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite, while Atlanta is just 6-7 ATS this season when trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.

    I think Detroit asserts itself and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Consider laying the points in this matchup.

    Good luck…Larry

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    RICKY TRAN
    NFL | Dec 14, 2017
    Broncos vs. Colts
    Colts+3 -120

    I'm not buying the Broncos laying 3 to the Colts here. Denver lost 8 games in a row before beating a bad New York Jets team at home last week. They are 0-6 SU ATS on the road, losing 13.5 – 30.5 per game. Only one loss was within a touchdown. To make matters worse, the Broncos lost SS Justin Simmons who has been outstanding against the run this year, guy is all over the field.

    The Colts at home are solid as it gets for a 3-win team: 2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS, losing two games by more than 3 and one game by more than 7. They actually had a lead in all 5 games other than the Jaguars one where they got blown out. This line is off IMO, I don’t know why the Broncos are favored here. It appears to be an oddsmakers reflection to last week, nothing more. Colts at home should somehow get this done.

    Indianapolis Colts +3

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    RYAN WORDEN
    NCAA-B | Dec 14, 2017
    Valparaiso vs. Northwestern
    UNDER 141½

    This is too many points for two teams who have as much trouble shooting as these two teams do. Valparaiso enjoyed success early this season as they enjoyed a very easy schedule. As the games have gotten tougher their struggles are starting show. The Crusaders are shooting under 33% from the field and 23% from 3 in their last 2 games. Northwestern is shooting under 45% from the field and 35% from 3 on the season. Expect this game to have a very slow pace, poor shooting and end in the 130's. Take The UNDER Thursday Night.

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    MIKE LUNDIN
    NBA | Dec 14, 2017
    Knicks vs. Nets
    Nets-120

    The New York Knicks enter this contest on a two-game winning streak after just barely defeating Atlanta and the Lakers home at Madison Square Garden. They have however won just once in nine attempts (2-7 ATS) outside of their own building all season, and I think they'll better prepare for another defeat when they visit their crosstown rival Brooklyn Nets Thursday night.

    The Nets have won three of their last four games, all as underdogs, and they're 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Knicks have the better season record at 14-13 vs. 11-15, but the Nets are 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

    The home team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

    My free pick is on the Brooklyn Nets.

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    DUSTIN HAWKINS

    Free Play on Pistons -3½ -109

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    SCOTT SPREITZER
    NBA | Dec 14, 2017
    Pistons vs. Hawks
    Pistons-3½

    I'm recommending a play on the Pistons minus the points on Thursday night. After a strong start to the season, Detroit has been in free fall, losing seven in a row SU (2-4-1 ATS). The offense has left a lot to be desired, but we feel they're getting "just what the doctor ordered," tonight. The Hawks are playing very little defense, allowing 109 ppg on the season and 113 ppg in their last five contests. The Hawks rank 28th in FG percentage allowed and they're bottom-third in the league in 3-point defense, also. We know the Pistons like the deep perimeter on the offensive end. Detroit enters on a 12-5-1 ATS run on the road and we'll back them here. I'm recommending a play on the Pistons minus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

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    BIG AL

    Our complimentary selection for Thursday, Dec 14 is:

    Northwestern -9.5 over Valparaiso

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    JEFF BENTON

    Your Thursday freebie is the Atlanta Hawks plus the points against the Detroit Pistons.

    Why would you lay any wood with the Pistons right now?

    This is a team that has totally lost their way here in the month of December, as Tuesday's 103-84 home loss to the Denver Nuggets marked the Pistons 7th straight loss. They are just 2-4-1 against the spread during their current tumble.

    Atlanta has only won 3 times straight up over their last 9 games, but the Hawks have gone 7-2 against the spread with 4 straight covers heading into tonight's home clash with the non-firing Pistons.

    The Hawks covered the first meeting between these teams in November, and they have covered in 5 of the last 7 games played against the Pistons.

    Until we see some signs that Detroit is out of their current funk, I say play against them.

    Hawks your freebie.

    4* ATLANTA

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