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Thread: Saturday 12-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Saturday 12-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Bears vs. Lions Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/13/2017

    The Detroit Lions are still alive for a playoff spot in the NFC, and they'll continue to push hard for the finish. The Lions will try to keep hope alive on Saturday afternoon when they host the NFC North rival Chicago Bears, who have nothing to lose.

    Detroit enters the week one game behind the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks in the race for the final NFC wild-card spot and kept themselves alive by pulling off a 24-21 win at Tampa Bay last week behind a solid performance from quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is dealing with an injury to his throwing hand. Stafford, who was questionable in the week leading up to Sunday's game at Tampa Bay before throwing for 381 yards, increased his activity at practice this week and is expected to play again behind a patchwork offensive line. The Bears played spoiler last week, essentially knocking the Cincinnati Bengals out of the playoff discussion in the AFC with a 33-7 win, and have a chance to disrupt things in the NFC with games remaining against the Lions and first-place Minnesota. "This is a tough time of year," Chicago coach John Fox told reporters after beating the Bengals. "You get to the fourth quarter of a game or a season, you gut it up with who you have, and our guys responded well."

    TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Lions -5.5. O/U: 44

    ABOUT THE BEARS (4-9): Rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky enjoyed the best game of his young career when he completed 25 of 32 passes for 271 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions last week, and his continued improvement is a positive for the team moving forward. "I just feel confident I'm getting better each week," Trubisky told reporters. "And, yes, it's fun to play, but I get feedback from my teammates. I can tell that they're confident in me, and that my play is just going to get better each week, and I know how to prepare. I just need to go out there and execute and just do it the way I'm coached. For us to come out with a win, that's the most important thing and the most important thing for me." Trubisky is getting some help in the running game from Jordan Howard, who ran for 147 yards and a pair of TDs against the Bengals to go over 1,000 yards rushing on the season.

    ABOUT THE LIONS (7-6): Stafford could use some help from his running game, and there is hope that top rusher Ameer Abdullah could return on Saturday after sitting out the last two games. "That's the coach's call. That's the coach's call," Abdullah told reporters about his status for Saturday. "It's never in my hands, and if the coaches feel like it's in the best direction, then maybe they know something I don't, you know? I'm always going to trust that. I'm always going to fall behind the lead of this team." Abdullah and Stafford will both have to deal with injuries to protection as guard T.J. Lang (foot), center Travis Swanson (concussion) and tackle Rick Wagner (ankle) are all questionable.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. The Lions signed DT Rodney Roe after he was waived by the Seattle Seahawks.

    2. Bears TE Adam Shaheen (chest) and WR Kendall Wright (shoulder) were both limited in practice on Wednesday.

    3. Detroit took eight of the last nine meetings, including four straight at home.

    PREDICTION: Lions 24, Bears 17

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    Chargers vs. Chiefs Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/14/2017

    The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers were on opposite ends of the spectrum when they met in Week 3. Twelve weeks later, they're playing for first place in the AFC West in Kansas City on Saturday night.


    The Chiefs beat the Chargers 24-10 in Los Angeles en route to a 5-0 start during which they looked like the NFL's best team, but six losses in seven games allowed the rest of the division back in the race. Kansas City righted the ship with a 26-15 victory over Oakland last week, while Los Angeles kept pace atop the division with a 30-13 trouncing of Washington. The Chargers have surged back into the playoff picture by winning four straight and seven of nine following an 0-4 start. To keep that hot streak going, they'll have to snap a seven-game skid against the Chiefs during which they've lost by an average of 11.7 points.

    TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Chargers -1. O/U: 46


    ABOUT THE CHARGERS (7-6): Philip Rivers has passed for 337 yards per game with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his last four contests, leading Los Angeles' resurgent offense. Keenan Allen has been his go-to target during that stretch, catching 39 passes for 547 yards and four scores over the last four weeks, while tight end Hunter Henry has developed into one of Rivers' top red-zone options. The Chargers' defense quietly is putting together a great season, ranking second in scoring defense and third against the pass, but the run defense is spotty and was gashed for 189 yards in the first meeting.

    ABOUT THE CHIEFS (7-6): After a midseason lull, rookie running back Kareem Hunt got back on track with 116 rushing yards against the Raiders. Quarterback Alex Smith also has rebounded somewhat from a mini-slump, but he has recorded seven touchdown passes and five interceptions over his last five games after throwing for 16 scores with no interceptions in the first eight contests. The defense has been the weakness for the Chiefs, who rank 30th against the run and 28th versus the pass, but they limited Oakland to 268 total yards and forced three turnovers last week.


    EXTRA POINTS

    1. Smith has thrown six touchdown passes and two interceptions while posting a 108.7 rating in his last three games against the Chargers.

    2. Rivers has joined Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as the only players in NFL history with 3,500 passing yards in 10 consecutive seasons.

    3. Allen is the first Charger with four consecutive 100-yard receiving performances since Wes Chandler in 1982.


    PREDICTION: Chiefs 26, Chargers 23

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    New Orleans Bowl preview: Troy vs. North Texas Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/06/2017



    R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL STORYLINES

    1. Former Sun Belt Conference rivals Troy and North Texas will meet in the New Orleans Bowl at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome on Dec. 16. Troy leads the series 8-2, including a 2005 win that snapped the Mean Green's 26-game conference win streak. Troy won a share of its sixth Sun Belt title this season while the Mean Green won four Sun Belt titles between 2001-2004.

    2. Troy senior quarterback Brandon Silvers (2,985 passing yards, 13 touchdowns) and the Trojans have scored 38.7 points during a six-game win streak - 17.4 points more than their first six games. North Texas sophomore quarterback Mason Fine broke single-season school records with 3,749 yards and 28 touchdowns on the way to first-team All-Conference USA honors. The Mean Green are on track to break single-season records in scoring (467 points) and total offense (467.0).

    3. The Trojans finished the regular season leading the nation in red-zone defense, holding opponents to 23 scores (six rushing TDs, 10 passing TD and seven field goals) in 39 attempts. The Troy defense is ranked 11th in scoring defense (17.5 points) and has 101 tackles for loss - five away from setting a single-season school record. The Trojans could get a break if North Texas is without 1,000-yard rusher Jeffery Wilson, who missed the last two games with a broken bone in his foot.

    TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Troy -5.5

    ABOUT TROY (10-2, 7-1 Sun Belt): Silvers - who has 82 total career touchdowns and needs two sores to tie Corey Robinson's school record - has thrown 11 of his touchdowns during the win streak. Freshman cornerback Marcus Jones (44 tackles) returned an interception 100 yards in the season finale and returned three kickoffs for touchdowns on the way to a conference-record 32.9-yard kickoff return average. Troy, which is 2-1 at the New Orleans Bowl, has won 21 of its past 26 games under coach Neal Brown after he started 3-8 in 2015.

    ABOUT NORTH TEXAS (9-4, 7-1 Conference USA): Wilson rushed for 1,215 yards and 16 touchdowns - and sits third in school history with 32 career rushing scores - before getting hurt. Sophomores Michael Lawrence (56 catches, 749 yards, three TDs), Jalen Guyton (48 catches, 764 yards, nine TDs) and Rico Bussey (43 catches, 613 yards, six TDs) account for more than half of Fine's touchdown passes. The Mean Green, who are playing in the New Orleans Bowl for the fifth time, are seeking their first 10-win season since 1977.



    PREDICTION: Troy 34, North Texas 24

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    Georgia State Panthers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/06/2017



    AUTONATION CURE BOWL STORYLINES

    1. A first-year head coach is going to cap his debut season with a victory when Western Kentucky faces Georgia State in the Cure Bowl on Dec. 16 in Orlando, Fla. Under former Boise State quarterback Mike Sanford, the Hilltoppers went .500 in Conference USA and finished ninth in FBS in passing offense. Directed by former South Carolina offensive coordinator Shawn Elliott, Georgia State won five road games en route to a fourth-place finish in the Sun Belt.

    2. Both teams rely on strong passing attacks. Western Kentucky quarterback Mike White is a Senior Bowl invitee who led Conference USA in total offense, passing yards, completion percentage and passing yards per game. Georgia State quarterback Conner Manning paced the Sun Belt in completion percentage and often directed his passes toward Penny Hart, who set a school record with 73 receptions for 1,094 yards and eight touchdowns.

    3. Western Kentucky and Georgia State each stumbled to finish the regular season. The Hilltoppers dropped four of their final contests, three of those defeats by 14 or more points. The Panthers mustered only 20 points in back-to-back losses to conclude the regular season, and their defense gave up 28.3 points per game while losing two of their final three contests.

    TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network. LINE: Western Kentucky -5

    ABOUT GEORGIA STATE (6-5, 5-3 Sun Belt): Manning finished with 13 passing touchdowns while averaging 260.9 passing yards per game, as the Panthers ranked 31st in the nation in passing offense. Hart missed most of last season with a hamstring injury and broken foot, but the sophomore averaged 99.5 receiving yards per game in 2017 - eighth-most in the nation. Georgia State gave up 30 or more points five times, but won six out of seven games in a midseason stretch to clinch its second Cure Bowl berth in three years.

    ABOUT WESTERN KENTUCKY (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA): White directed the Hilltoppers to 333.7 passing yards per game and averaged 300.3 total yards of offense per contest. Western Kentucky did not have much success rushing, averaging just 66.1 yards per contest. Linebacker Joel Iyiegbuniwe finished fifth in the conference with 105 tackles, including four games of 10 or more, and earned All-C-USA honors to help the Hilltoppers reach a bowl game for the fourth consecutive season.



    PREDICTION: Western Kentucky 38, Georgia State 34

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    Las Vegas Bowl preview: Boise State vs. Oregon Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/06/2017



    LAS VEGAS BOWL STORYLINES

    1. The Las Vegas Bowl could come down to one man's performance as Boise State and Oregon face off in the annual Sin City spectacular on Dec. 16. Quarterback Justin Herbert will look to lead the Ducks to victory in their first Las Vegas Bowl appearance since 2006. Oregon averaged an absurd 52.1 points in the seven games Herbert played this year, and just 15 points in the five games he missed due to injury.

    2. Oregon is garnering as much attention for who won't be at the game as it is for who will be. Head coach Willie Taggart, who turned the Ducks' fortunes around after doing the same in four years at South Florida, will forego his duties after accepting the lead job at Florida State. Co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Mario Cristobal will lead the Ducks in Las Vegas.

    3. The Broncos had a more high-profile bowl appearance in mind heading down the stretch, but a 28-17 loss to Fresno State in their pre-championship meeting put the brakes on that. Boise State did well to bounce back with a 17-14 victory in the Mountain West title game, and will look for a similar result Dec. 16 after finishing in the top 40 nationally in both scoring offense (32.1) and scoring defense (22.5 allowed).

    TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Oregon -7.5

    ABOUT BOISE STATE (10-3, 7-1 Mountain West): The Broncos could be without one of their top offensive weapons at Sam Boyd Stadium, with running back Alexander Mattison considered questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the title game victory over Fresno State. Mattison, who racked up 1,074 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground, left the game in the third quarter and was spotted the next day in a walking boot. That said, the Broncos' offense is in good hands even if Mattison is out, with Boise State quarterbacks combining for 24 TDs against five interceptions while completing 63.5 percent of their attempts.

    ABOUT OREGON (7-5, 4-5 Pac-12): While Herbert will be the obvious focus for the Boise State defense, the Broncos can't afford to ignore standout running back Royce Freeman. The electrifying senior bulldozed his way to 1,475 yards and 16 touchdowns this season, and finished 2017 with six consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. Freeman has a more-than-capable sidekick in the backfield, as well, with Kani Benoit adding 573 yards on the ground and 10 scores despite seeing just 80 carries this season; Benoit erupted for 122 yards and a TD in the Ducks' season-ending 69-10 obliteration of Oregon State.



    PREDICTION: Oregon 38, Boise State 27

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    Gildan New Mexico Bowl Marshall vs. Colorado State Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/06/2017



    GILDAN NEW MEXICO BOWL STORYLINES

    1. The New Mexico Bowl at the University of New Mexico's Dreamstyle Stadium on Saturday, Dec. 16 will feature two first-time opponents in Marshall of Conference USA and Colorado State of the Mountain West Conference. It's also a clash of two programs that have been on opposite ends of the postseason-success spectrum of late. The Thundering Herd own an FBS-best 10-2 record in NCAA-sanctioned bowl games (among teams with a minimum of four appearances), including a 4-0 mark under current coach Doc Holliday, while the Rams possess a 6-10 all-time bowl record and have dropped three straight, including losses as a point-spread favorite in each of the last two postseasons under current coach Mike Bobo.

    2. Although both teams are bringing 7-5 records to Albuquerque, neither exactly finished the regular season with a flourish. Marshall roared out to a 6-1 start, including a 3-0 mark in conference play, but dropped four of its final five games to finish tied for third in the C-USA's East Division. Similarly, Colorado State opened with a 6-2 record, including a 4-0 mark in the Mountain West, but then lost three straight before routing San Jose State 42-14 in its regular-season finale to finish third in the conference's Mountain Division.

    3. The game will feature a classic strength vs. strength matchup pitting the Rams' high-scoring offense against the Thundering Herd's stout defense. Led by All-Mountain West first-team quarterback Nick Stevens and wide receiver Michael Gallup, a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, Colorado State ranks 10th nationally in total offense (501.1 yards per game) and finished the regular season as the Mountain West's highest-scoring team at 33.8 points per outing, but the Rams will have to reconfigure the coaching responsibilities with offensive coordinator Will Friend having departed to join the new coaching staff at Tennessee. Marshall, meanwhile, had a quartet of defenders garner All-Conference USA recognition and ranks in the FBS top 25 in total (337.7 yards allowed) and scoring (19.3 points) defense.

    TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Colorado State -5.5


    ABOUT MARSHALL (7-5, 4-4 Conference USA): Junior quarterback Chase Litton has started 33 contests for the Thundering Herd, throwing 70 touchdown passes and 29 interceptions, and ranked third in the conference this season with 237.8 passing yards per game. His top targets are a pair of first-team All-Conference USA selections in wideout Tyre Brady, a transfer from Miami, and tight end Ryan Yurachek, who combined for 103 catches, 1,207 yards and 16 TDs even through the former missed the last two games of the season due to injury, while freshman Tyler King totaled a team-high 714 rushing yards in 10 contests. Linebacker Chase Hancock, an All-Conference Second Team selection, made 120 total tackles while cornerback Chris Jackson recorded a team-leading three interceptions and eight pass breakups for a defense which limited the opposition to 10 or fewer points in five games.

    ABOUT COLORADO STATE (7-5, 5-3 Mountain West): The Rams are quite familiar with Albuquerque, playing division-rival New Mexico there every other season, and now are seeking their third New Mexico Bowl victory after beating Fresno State 40-35 in 2008 and rallying late to stun Washington State 48-45 in 2013. Stevens led the conference in passing yards (289.9), TD tosses (27) and passing efficiency (152.4 rating) while the 6-foot, 200-pound Gallup is tied for third in the nation in receptions (94, seven touchdowns) and is fifth in receiving yards (1,345). Center Jake Bennett and tackle Zack Golditch also were All-Mountain West First-Team selections from an offensive line which allowed only eight sacks, while linebackers Josh Watson (103 total tackles, seven passes defensed) and Evan Colorito (11 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks) led a defense that struggled at times as it surrendered 27.5 points and 425.8 yards per contest.




    PREDICTION: Colorado State 27, Marshall 24

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    Raycom Media Camellia Bowl Middle Tennessee State vs. Arkansas State Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 12/08/2017



    RAYCOM MEDIA CAMELLIA BOWL STORYLINES

    1. Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State will face off in the Camellia Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., on Dec. 16 in a matchup of two teams that were conference foes from 2001-13 in the Sun Belt Conference. In the last game for the Blue Raiders before they moved to Conference USA, they lost 45-0 to the Red Wolves with the Sun Belt title on the line. Don't think that won't come up a time or two in coach Rick Stockstill's talks with his Blue Raiders, that his team has a chance at a bowl win and a little revenge.

    2. The fact Middle Tennessee State is even in a bowl game is quite an accomplishment, considering the team was 3-5 heading into November. After winning three of its last four contests - and averaging 36 points over that stretch - Stockstill's squad still didn't think they'd made it on Selection Sunday, holding a season-ending team meeting before getting word of their selection by the Camellia Bowl. With new life, Middle Tennessee is looking to make the best of it - especially with the possibility of having a strong fan showing since the game is four hours away from Murfreesboro after their bowl games in the last two seasons were played in Hawaii and the Bahamas.

    3. Arkansas State quarterback Justice Hansen will get a chance to prove himself on a big stage after a fantastic season that had some ups and downs. The junior threw for 3,630 yards and 34 touchdowns, including six games with three or more passing scores. But Hansen also had three contests with three or more interceptions, so he'll need to be at his best if the Red Wolves are to win their second straight bowl game.

    TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Arkansas State -3.5

    ABOUT MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (6-6, 4-4 Conference USA): Quarterback Brent Stockstill really has taken over since returning from a cracked sternum and separated collarbone, which he suffered in the second game of the season. Middle Tennessee State was 3-5 when Stockstill took over as the starter again, and the team is 3-1 since his return, with the only loss coming in overtime. The junior has thrown for 1,440 yards and 14 touchdowns and has a very dangerous target in sophomore wide receiver Ty Lee (74 catches, 916 yards, five touchdowns), meaning a big game in this contest could lead to an even bigger 2018 for the duo.

    ABOUT ARKANSAS STATE (7-4, 6-2 Sun Belt): While the Red Wolves' offense is potent behind Hansen, the big name for Arkansas State is defensive end Ja'Von Rolland-Jones, the two-time Sun Belt Player of the Year. Rolland-Jones already is the career sacks leader both at Arkansas State and in the Sun Belt Conference, and his 43.5 career sacks put him one shy of breaking the NCAA FBS record of 44, set by Arizona State's Terrell Suggs. Rolland-Jones is able to take over a game with the pressure he applies, and he'll be looking for a big game in his final contest as a Red Wolf, which would only mean good things for Arkansas State.



    PREDICTION: Arkansas State 38, Middle Tennessee State 30

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    Trends - Troy vs North Texas

    ATS Trends
    Troy

    Trojans are 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Trojans are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Trojans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
    Trojans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.

    North Texas

    Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
    Mean Green are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
    Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
    Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Mean Green are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Mean Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
    Mean Green are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Mean Green are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Mean Green are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

    OU Trends
    Troy

    Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 Bowl games.
    Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 neutral site games.
    Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 bowl games.
    Under is 10-1 in Trojans last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 5-1-1 in Trojans last 7 games on fieldturf.
    Under is 4-1 in Trojans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 7-2 in Trojans last 9 games following a ATS win.
    Under is 12-4 in Trojans last 16 games overall.
    Under is 12-4 in Trojans last 16 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Under is 8-3 in Trojans last 11 games following a straight up win.
    Over is 14-6-1 in Trojans last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Over is 37-16 in Trojans last 53 non-conference games.

    North Texas

    Over is 5-1 in Mean Green last 6 non-conference games.
    Under is 6-2 in Mean Green last 8 vs. S-Belt.
    Over is 8-3 in Mean Green last 11 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Over is 5-2 in Mean Green last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 7-3 in Mean Green last 10 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Under is 7-3 in Mean Green last 10 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

    Head to Head

    Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in North Texas.

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    Trends - Western Kentucky vs Georgia State

    ATS Trends
    Western Kentucky

    Hilltoppers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December.
    Hilltoppers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
    Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Hilltoppers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on fieldturf.
    Hilltoppers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
    Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss.
    Hilltoppers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Hilltoppers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall.
    Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Hilltoppers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. S-Belt.
    Hilltoppers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

    Georgia State

    Panthers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
    Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

    OU Trends
    Western Kentucky

    Over is 4-0 in Hilltoppers last 4 neutral site games.
    Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers last 5 games in December.
    Over is 16-5-1 in Hilltoppers last 22 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 6-2 in Hilltoppers last 8 games on fieldturf.
    Under is 6-2-1 in Hilltoppers last 9 vs. S-Belt.
    Over is 5-2 in Hilltoppers last 7 games overall.
    Under is 5-2 in Hilltoppers last 7 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

    Georgia State

    Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games in December.
    Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 non-conference games.
    Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS loss.
    Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Under is 22-7 in Panthers last 29 games overall.
    Under is 12-4 in Panthers last 16 games on fieldturf.
    Under is 11-5 in Panthers last 16 games following a straight up loss.

    Head to Head
    No trends available.

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    Trends - No. 25 Boise State vs Oregon

    ATS Trends
    Boise State

    Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
    Broncos are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Broncos are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
    Broncos are 4-11 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
    Broncos are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Pac-12.

    Oregon

    Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.
    Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
    Ducks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Ducks are 8-17-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
    Ducks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
    Ducks are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Ducks are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Ducks are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
    Ducks are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
    Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Ducks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

    OU Trends
    Boise State

    Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 6-2 in Broncos last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Under is 9-4-1 in Broncos last 14 games in December.

    Oregon

    Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 8-2 in Ducks last 10 games following a straight up win.
    Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Under is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 48-15-2 in Ducks last 65 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Under is 6-2 in Ducks last 8 vs. MWC.
    Under is 9-3 in Ducks last 12 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games overall.
    Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 Bowl games.
    Over is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
    Under is 5-2 in Ducks last 7 games following a ATS win.
    Over is 11-5 in Ducks last 16 games on fieldturf.

    Head to Head
    No trends available.

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    Trends - Marshall vs Colorado State

    ATS Trends
    Marshall

    Thundering Herd are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
    Thundering Herd are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
    Thundering Herd are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
    Thundering Herd are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.
    Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
    Thundering Herd are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
    Thundering Herd are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.

    Colorado State

    Rams are 10-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
    Rams are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    Rams are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Rams are 16-6-1 ATS in their last 23 non-conference games.
    Rams are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.
    Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
    Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Rams are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.
    Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
    Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
    Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

    OU Trends
    Marshall

    Over is 4-0 in Thundering Herd last 4 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Over is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 non-conference games.
    Under is 7-1 in Thundering Herd last 8 games following a ATS loss.
    Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 Bowl games.
    Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 neutral site games.
    Under is 5-1 in Thundering Herd last 6 bowl games.
    Under is 8-2 in Thundering Herd last 10 games following a straight up loss.
    Under is 10-3 in Thundering Herd last 13 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 6-2 in Thundering Herd last 8 games overall.
    Under is 6-2 in Thundering Herd last 8 games in December.
    Over is 8-3 in Thundering Herd last 11 games on grass.

    Colorado State

    Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Under is 6-1 in Rams last 7 neutral site games.
    Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Over is 6-2 in Rams last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 Bowl games.
    Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Under is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 bowl games.
    Under is 11-5 in Rams last 16 non-conference games.

    Head to Head
    No trends available.

  13. #13
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    Trends - Middle Tennessee vs Arkansas State

    ATS Trends
    Middle Tennessee

    Blue Raiders are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. S-Belt.
    Blue Raiders are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games on fieldturf.
    Blue Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
    Blue Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
    Blue Raiders are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
    Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
    Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
    Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
    Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    Blue Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.

    Arkansas State

    Red Wolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Red Wolves are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall.
    Red Wolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
    Red Wolves are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.

    OU Trends
    Middle Tennessee

    Under is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 non-conference games.
    Over is 4-0 in Blue Raiders last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
    Over is 7-0 in Blue Raiders last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
    Under is 4-0-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
    Under is 7-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
    Over is 6-1 in Blue Raiders last 7 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 9-2-1 in Blue Raiders last 12 games overall.
    Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 Bowl games.
    Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 neutral site games.
    Over is 4-1 in Blue Raiders last 5 bowl games.
    Over is 8-3 in Blue Raiders last 11 games following a ATS win.
    Over is 10-4 in Blue Raiders last 14 games following a straight up win.
    Over is 5-2-1 in Blue Raiders last 8 games in December.

    Arkansas State

    Under is 6-1 in Red Wolves last 7 games following a straight up loss.
    Under is 12-2 in Red Wolves last 14 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
    Under is 14-3-1 in Red Wolves last 18 games on fieldturf.
    Under is 4-1 in Red Wolves last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
    Under is 16-5-1 in Red Wolves last 22 games overall.
    Under is 6-2 in Red Wolves last 8 games following a ATS loss.
    Under is 31-12-1 in Red Wolves last 44 non-conference games.

    Head to Head

    Favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
    Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
    Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

  14. #14
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    NCAAF
    Long Sheet



    Saturday, December 16

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NORTH TEXAS (9 - 4) vs. TROY (10 - 2) - 12/16/2017, 1:00 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    TROY is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 3 seasons.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    GEORGIA ST (6 - 5) vs. W KENTUCKY (6 - 6) - 12/16/2017, 2:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    GEORGIA ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday since 1992.
    GEORGIA ST is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
    GEORGIA ST is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OREGON (7 - 5) vs. BOISE ST (10 - 3) - 12/16/2017, 3:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    BOISE ST is 139-102 ATS (+26.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
    BOISE ST is 139-102 ATS (+26.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
    BOISE ST is 88-59 ATS (+23.1 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
    BOISE ST is 79-49 ATS (+25.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
    OREGON is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
    OREGON is 86-61 ATS (+18.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MARSHALL (7 - 5) vs. COLORADO ST (7 - 5) - 12/16/2017, 4:30 PM
    Top Trends for this game.
    COLORADO ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing on a Saturday over the last 2 seasons.
    COLORADO ST is 63-42 ATS (+16.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
    MARSHALL is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in a bowl game since 1992.
    MARSHALL is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in games played on a neutral field since 1992.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    MIDDLE TENN ST (6 - 6) vs. ARKANSAS ST (7 - 4) - 12/16/2017, 8:00 PM
    There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

    Head-to-Head Series History
    There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

  15. #15
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    NCAAF

    Bowl Season

    Trend Report

    Saturday, December 16

    TROY @ NORTH TEXAS
    Troy is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
    Troy is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing North Texas
    North Texas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
    North Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

    WESTERN KENTUCKY @ GEORGIA STATE
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Western Kentucky's last 7 games
    Western Kentucky is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Georgia State's last 6 games
    Georgia State is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

    OREGON @ BOISE STATE
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games
    Oregon is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
    Boise State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
    Boise State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

    MARSHALL @ COLORADO STATE
    Marshall is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games
    Marshall is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
    Colorado State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

    MIDDLE TENNESSEE @ ARKANSAS STATE
    The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Middle Tennessee's last 12 games
    The total has gone OVER in 6 of Middle Tennessee's last 9 games when playing Arkansas State
    The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas State's last 6 games
    Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Middle Tennessee

  16. #16
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    NCAAF

    Bowl Season

    December 16
    Troy (-6) vs North Texas- New Orleans Bowl
    Troy won its last six games, is 10-2 this year, with a win at LSU; Trojans have a 4-year starter at QB, are 2-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. North Texas won five of last six games, losing C-USA title game at FAU Dec 2. Mean Green is 4-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Favorites won/covered three of last five New Orleans Bowls; Conference USA teams won last two. Troy won its last two bowls, is 3-3 all-time; North Texas lost three of last four bowls; they’re 2-6 all-time in bowls. C-USA non-conference underdogs are 8-23 vs spread this season; Sun Belt favorites are 1-2. Since 2014, C-USA teams are 10-4 SU vs Sun Belt teams, covering four of last six as an underdog vs Sun Belt foes.

    Western Kentucky (-5) vs Georgia State- Auto Nation Cure Bowl, Orlando
    Western Kentucky is 6-6 this year, after going 40-14 the previous four years; they allowed 30+ points in each of their last six games. WKU has a senior QB who has 41 career starts- they’re 1-5-1 vs spread as a favorite, 1-5 in games with single digit pointspread. Georgia State has a senior QB who is grad transfer from Utah; Panthers are 6-5 this year, scoring 10 or less points in all five losses- they’re 2-3 vs spread as an underdog, 4-4-1 in games with single digit spread. Hilltoppers are 3-1 in bowls, winning last three years while scoring 49-45-51 points, but with a different coach. Georgia State lost its only bowl 27-16 to San Jose State in this same bowl two years ago, which was the first Cure Bowl. C-USA non-conference favorites are 7-3 vs spread; Sun Belt underdogs are 14-13. C-USA favorites covered six of last seven games when playing Sun Belt teams.

    Oregon (-7.5) vs Boise State— Las Vegas Bowl
    Oregon scored 117 points in winning its last two games after soph QB Herbert got healthy; they’re 7-5 but their coach already bolted for Florida State. Ducks are 4-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 2-2 in games with a single digit spread. Boise State has a junior QB who has made 36 starts; Broncos won eight of last nine games- they won MAC title, scoring 17 points in consecutive games vs Fresno. Boise is 2-0 as an underdog this year, 4-2 in games with single digit spread. Boise is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they won Las Vegas Bowl three years in row, from 2010-12. Oregon lost its last two bowls, 42-20/47-41; average total in their last three bowls: 76.3. Favorites won/covered last three Las Vegas Bowls; Pac-12 teams won their last three visits here. Last three years, Pac-12 favorites are 14-12-1 vs spread when playing Mountain West teams.

    Colorado State (-5.5) vs Marshall— Gildan New Mexico Bowl, Albuquerque
    Colorado State is 7-5, dropping 3 of last 4 games, losing 59-52 at home to Boise when they led 35-17 at the half; Rams are 0-6 vs spread in their last six games- they’re 3-5 vs spread as a favorite, 3-5 in games with a single digit spread. CSU has a senior QB who has started 38 games. Marshall lost four of its last five games, losing last two games by total of three points. Thundering Herd is 5-0 vs spread as an underdog this year, 5-1 in games with a single digit spread- they’ve got a junior QB who has 33 starts. Rams lost their last three bowls, allowing 44.7 ppg- average total in their last five bowls: 74- they lost 61-50 in the Potato Bowl LY. Marshall won its last five bowls, allowing 16 ppg; they’re 10-2 all-time in bowls. Rams won 27-24 here October 20. C-USA teams covered seven of last ten games with Mountain West foes.

    Arkansas State (-4) vs Middle Tennessee State, Raycom Media Camellia Bowl, Montgomery, AL
    Arkansas State split its last four games, losing 32-25 to Troy in Sun Belt title game; Red Wolves won a game 67-50 this year- they also lost 43-36 at Nebraska, but five of their last six games stayed under total. ASU is 3-2 in games with single-digit spread. Middle Tennessee is 6-6; they were favored by 7+ points in five of six wins- they’re 1-4 as an underdog this year. Blue Raiders’ last three games went over. MTSU lost its last four bowls, allowing 45-52 points in bowls the last two years; ASU is 3-2 in its last five bowls; they scored 34.3 ppg in last three. Sun Belt teams won two of first three Camellia Bowls. with an average total of 60. C-USA underdogs are 8-23 vs spread in non-league games this year. Last four years, C-USA teams are 9-5 vs spread when playing a Sun Belt opponent.

  17. #17
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    Wiseguys are advising to jump on these early bowl odds now
    Steve Merril

    Sharps have flagged these bowl games as early lines to keep an eye on.

    Spread to bet now

    Florida International (+7) vs. Temple

    This line for the Gasparilla Bowl opened +8 and was quickly bet down to +7 before it even opened at some other major sportsbooks. Play it now before it dips below this key number. Florida International will be excited for this game after a 4-8 SU season last year. It is the Panthers' first bowl game in six years. They were a solid 8-4 SU this year and finished the regular season with back-to-back wins in which they scored 104 points combined on offense.

    Temple will be less excited for this game after a mediocre 6-6 SU regular season. The Owls were 10-3 SU last year before losing their bowl game as a 12-point favorite. Temple was also 10-3 SU in the 2015 regular season when they lost by 15 points as a 2.5-point bowl favorite. The Owls were a weak offensive team this season, averaging just 24.8 points per game on 5.5 yards per play (versus opponents that allow 28.6 ppg and 6.1 yppl).

    Spread to bet now

    Appalachian State (+7.5) vs. Toledo

    This line for the Dollar General Bowl opened at +8 and was quickly bet down to +7.5. Play it now while it remains above the key number of +7. Appalachian State enters with solid offensive momentum as they scored 31 points or more in three of their final four regular season games. Overall, the Mountaineers averaged 33.4 points per game on 6.5 yards per play this year, while allowing just 21.9 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

    Toledo also enters off three straight wins, but might be a little flat after winning the MAC championship game. Toledo probably was hoping for a better bowl bid after a solid 11-2 SU season. The Rockets were strong offensively this year, but weak on defense as they allowed 5.6 yards per play versus a schedule of weak offensive opponents that averaged just 5.3 yppl overall. Toledo's defense is now taking a substantial step-up in class. The Rockets lost last year, 31-28, versus Appalachian State in the Camellia Bowl.

    Total to bet now

    Georgia State vs. Western Kentucky (52)

    This total for the Autonation Cure Bowl has risen a couple points higher since opening. These early minor bowl games do have a tendency to be higher scoring, but that might not be the case in this game with two weak offensive teams. Georgia State averaged a paltry 19.7 points per game this season on just 5.4 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 26.4 ppg on 5.8 yppl). Meanwhile, Western Kentucky averaged just 26.2 points per game on only 5.3 yards per play (versus opponents that allowed 29.7 ppg on 5.8 yppl).

    Both offenses were particularly weak down the stretch. Western Kentucky scored 23 points or less in three of their final four regular season games. Georgia State scored only 10 points in each of their final two games. The Panthers have a 5-1 Under mark in their past six games overall. Last year, Georgia State managed just 16 total points in this same bowl game.

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    CAPPING THE COACHES
    Jason Logan

    One of the biggest differences between wagering on college and professional sports is the impact of the coaching. In the college ranks, these coaches are the molders of young men and build a program from the bottom up, having a bigger influence on how the game is played. Oddsmakers factor coaching into the lines in college sports more than any other option.

    That’s why it’s such a big deal when coaches are swapped out just before bowl season. Whether it be a coach taking a new job and leaving his former team in the hands of his assistants or a team firing its coach just before the postseason and pretty much hoping for the best in the bowl game. Bettors can find added value when handicapping the turnover on the sidelines.

    “Teams and players often rally behind a new coach or departing coach, while other times players and teams are disappointed and provide a weak effort,” says Covers Expert Steve Merril.

    Perhaps the biggest coaching change, as it pertains to bowl season, is Scott Frost leaving Central Florida for the job at Nebraska ahead of the Knights' showdown with Auburn as 9.5-point underdogs in the Peach Bowl. Central Florida was snubbed by the CFP committee, despite an undefeated record, and is hoping Frost will be on the sideline for this finale against a SEC power. As of mid-December, Frost is back with the team and running practices and looks like he will coach on New Year’s Day. But, should those plans fall through closer to kickoff, it will be interesting to see where the team’s head is at.

    Another big-name coaching move this bowl season is Jimbo Fisher bailing on Florida State for Texas A&M, replacing Kevin Sumlin and putting interim coach Jeff Banks in charge of the Aggies (+3) versus Wake Forest in the Belk Bowl. Fisher’s former programs, the Seminoles, barely became bowl eligible after a disastrous season, and will now face Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl, giving 15.5 points to the Golden Eagles on December 27.

    Long-time defensive line coach Odell Haggins will step in as interim coach for the bowl game. While Haggins commands a lot of respect, being with the programs since 1994, many of those FSU standouts have to be thinking about their place in new head coach Willie Taggart’s system in 2018. Even Haggins has to be polishing his resume, not knowing his future in Tallahassee.

    Taggart left Oregon before its showdown with Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl, and had Mario Cristobal in place as an interim for the bowl game. However, with so much support – especially from the Ducks roster - Cristobal was eventually promoted to head coach and is hoping to ride that momentum to a victory over the Broncos on December 16. Oregon opened -5.5 and is now giving 7.5 points in Las Vegas.

    In a funny twist, Arizona State will have recently-fired head coach Todd Graham on the sideline for the Sun Devils' matchups with North Carolina State in the Sun Bowl. Graham was axed at the end of the year - replaced by former NFL head coach Herm Edwards - but he and his staff are hoping the players send them off as winners, despite oddsmakers pegging ASU as a 6.5-point underdog against the Wolfpack in El Paso, Texas.

    Mississippi State takes on Louisville in the TaxSlayer Bowl on December minus head coach Dan Mullen, who leaves the Bulldogs for SEC rival Florida. That has interim Greg Knox running things this month as new head coach Joe Moorehead hits the recruiting trail and puts his staff together for 2018. Mississippi State is a 6.5-point underdog for this game at EverBank Field in Jacksonville.

    Rounding out the coaching moves this bowl season is Chad Morris leaving SMU for Arkansas, with the Mustangs as 5-point faves versus Louisiana Tech in the DXL Frisco Bowl. Southern Methodist will look to interim coach Jeff Traylor, who will then go with Morris to the run the Razorbacks. So, who knows where his focus will be for this December 20 game in Frisco, Texas.

  19. #19
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    DO NOT PLACE MONEY WITHOUT KNOWING MOTIVATION
    Jason Logan

    Bowl season is many things to many teams.

    To some, it’s the culmination of a hard-fought season. To others, it’s a relief from years of losing. And to a few programs, it’s a reminder of missed opportunities and wasted potential. Understanding the mindset of a bowl team is paramount before placing any bets.

    Which programs are just happy to be invited to a bowl game and which ones are actually serious about winning? The first step college football bettors should take when looking at potential plays, is to call out any teams disappointed with the bowl they’ve drawn. While some could lack motivation, this situation usually serves as motivation with a chip on the team’s shoulder.

    With the implementation of the College Football Playoffs, there has been a new factor thrown into the bowl betting mix with teams sitting just outside the Final Four feeling the sting of the playoff snub heading into their respective bowl game. This time around, Big Ten champ Ohio State didn’t receive an invite, leaving football bettors to question how the Buckeyes players will react to this letdown.

    Ohio State settles for a showdown with Southern Cal in the Cotton Bowl, despite winning the Big Ten Championship over then-undefeated Wisconsin. The Buckeyes were edged by Alabama – a one-loss SEC team that didn’t play for its conference title. Oddsmakers currently have OSU pegged as a 7.5-point favorite versus the Trojans in Texas.

    Another team feeling disrespected this bowl season could be Central Florida, which finished the regular season 12-0 following a victory in the AAC Championship Game. The Knights were a long shot to squeak into the CFP Final Four but still held out hope of a playoff berth. Instead, UCF is playing Auburn in the Peach Bowl, getting very little respect from books and bettors. It opened +8.5 and is now up to a 9.5-point underdog in Atlanta on New Year’s Day.

    Motivation just isn’t reserved for the big boys, though. Programs that barely qualified for bowl eligibility and still earned a berth in a postseason game can often times feel a sense of accomplishment. Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports calls these “Just glad to be there” teams.

    “This might take some digging, but there are teams which are just happy to be aboard the gravy train,” says Aronson. “Coaches get a little more job security and players get to brag when they go home for semester break. With dozens of games, it’s a win-win for everyone.”

    Littering the bowl season landscape are a number of six-win squads, that just barely qualified for postseason consideration: Western Kentucky, Georgia State, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech, Temple, Texas Tech, Utah, Duke, UCLA, Florida State, Texas, Virginia, Navy, New Mexico State, and Utah State all made the bowl grade by the skin of their teeth. Football bettors should do a deep dive into how coaches, players, and even fan bases feel about their respective postseason contests.

    Bettors must also measure the motivation of teams that are ending an extended bowl drought, and determine whether they're feeling a false sense of accomplishment – bound for a letdown – or using that big stage to push the program even further up the food chain.

    The longest bowl drought being quenched this month is a 57-year bowl absence by the New Mexico State Aggies, making their first bowl appearance since 1960. The Aggies just became bowl eligible with a win in the season finale and now travel to Tucson to play Utah State in the Arizona Bowl on December 29. New Mexico State opened as a 3-point favorite but action against the Aggies has moved this spread all the way to NMSU +4.

    The UAB Blazers will be pumped up for their first bowl appearance since 2004, when they face Ohio in the Bahamas Bowl on December 22. There is extra emotion rolling into this bowl appearance as well, as UAB’s football program was shuttered for two years before returning to action this season, finishing 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. Alabama-Birmingham is a 7.5-point underdog in Nassau.

    Lane Kiffin has Florida Atlantic playing in its first bowl game since 2008, guiding the Owls to a 10-3 SU record (9-4 ATS). They face the Akron Zips as 22.5-point chalk in the Boca Raton Bowl, playing on their home field for this December 19 contest.

    Other teams snapping bowl droughts this month are: Southern Methodist (2012), Arizona State (2012), Purdue (2013), as well as Missouri and Texas, who both haven’t been to a bowl game since 2014 and met in the Texas Bowl on December 27 with the Tigers set as field-goal favorites.

    One of the most underlying motivational capping tools is finding a team playing in the same bowl as it did last season. The 2014-15 bowl schedule found Arkansas State back in the GoDaddy Bowl for the fourth straight season, losing to Toledo 63-44 as a 3.5-point underdog in Mobile, Alabama.

    “Teams returning to the same minor bowl game they played in last year tend to become disinterested,” notes Covers Expert Marc Lawrence.

    South Florida is back in the Birmingham Bowl for the second straight year, set as a 2.5-point favorite versus Texas Tech on December 23. The Bulls, who edged South Carolina in a wildly-entertaining 46-39 overtime victory in this bowl last season, could be a little flat after earning another trip to Alabama following a crushing loss to UCF in their regular season finale. On top of that, the bowl organizers somehow messed up the school’s name on the official game t-shirts, going with “South Florida University” instead of the proper title, “University of South Florida”.

    Mike Leach and his Washington State Cougars are back in the Holiday Bowl, facing Michigan State as 2.5-point favorites. The Cougars lost to another Big Ten school, Minnesota, as 8.5-point chalk in San Diego last year. The venue switches to SDCCU Stadium in 2017 and Leach will be on the sideline for WSU after rumors he was in the running for the Tennessee job. He’s also in the hunt for a new contract extension.

    Louisiana State makes its second straight stint in the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Day, sitting as a field-goal fave to Notre Dame. The Tigers beat down Louisville and Heisman winner Lamar Jackson 29-9 as 3-point chalk. While this is a repeat bowl appearance, LSU doesn’t mind a spot on the January 1 schedule against the Fighting Irish.

    And while it’s not a repeat in a particular bowl, Appalachian State and Toledo meet in a rematch of last year’s Camellia Bowl – a 31-28 win by the Mountaineers as 1-point favorites – when the connect for a December 23 date in the Dollar General Bowl. The Rockets are 7.5-point favorites in this rare bowl revenge spot in Mobile, Alabama.

  20. #20
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    TIME BETWEEN BOWLS GIVES AND TAKES AWAY
    Jason Logan

    The Ravages of time. Idle hands do the Devil’s work. Time, time time… is on my side. YES IT IS!

    All three famed phrases have everything to do with the time between a college football team’s final game of the regular season and its postseason bowl appearance.

    Some programs are thrust right into the bowl schedule with a small break between the finale, finals and the bowl game. Other teams are collecting dust for almost a month while they prepare for their year-end showcase.

    “The long layoff - several weeks - before the game is played can often lead to bizarre Over or Under-performance by teams involved,” says Steve Merril.

    A team that gained momentum late in the year may not have that same mojo working for them in bowl season, thanks to the extended hiatus. Depending on the break between games, programs could be completely different come game day and that opens up a lot of value to go against, with oddsmakers setting these lines based on their past accomplishments.

    The gap between the end of the regular season to the bowl game can be more than a month, so what difference does it make if a team won its last six in a row?” asks Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports.

    A good example are the Central Michigan Chippewas, who finished the schedule on a five-game winning streak, becoming bowl eligible along the way and earning a ticket to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. The Chippewas, who are sitting at a pick’em facing Wyoming on December 22, will have had nearly a month off between the bowl and their final game of the season.

    Northwestern was one of the hottest teams in college football, closing the 2017 campaign on a seven-game winning streak and earning a spot in the Music City Bowl versus Kentucky. The Wildcats will have been off for more than a month when they take on the other Wildcats as touchdown favorites on December 29.

    The gap between season finale and bowl game, however, can also work in a team’s favor. A late-season swoon or a rash of injuries toward the end of the year can be remedied by a few weeks off.

    Auburn is hoping the lengthy hiatus can heal up star running back Kerryon Johnson, who is listed as question with a shoulder injury for the Tigers’ date with UCF in the Peach Bowl. Johnson, who rushed for 1,320 yards and a team-high 19 touchdowns, will have just about a full month to recover between the Tigers’ loss to UGA in the SEC Championship and that New Year’s Day bowl appearance. Auburn could also get linebacker Tre Williams back from a shoulder injury as well.

    The bowl break has also allowed Boise State to return two key weapons on offense for its matchup with Oregon in the Las Vegas Bowl. Tight end Jake Roh and running back Alexander Mattison are expected to be back from ankle injuries, with the Broncos set as 7.5-point underdogs versus the Ducks on December 16.

    Wyoming is hoping that month-long pause is enough to get quarterback Josh Allen back in working order for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against CMU. Allen passed for 13 touchdowns and ran in another five but injured his throwing shoulder on November 11 and missed the final two games of the season – both losses for the Cowboys.

    Will Grier is hoping to be under center for West Virginia’s appearance in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, taking on Utah on December 26. Grier underwent surgery on his broken middle finger on his passing hand in late November and is doubtful for the Mountaineers’ postseason game. Grier, who passed for 3,490 yards and 34 touchdowns, was replaced by sophomore QB Chris Chugunov in the season finale loss to Oklahoma, completely just 10 of 20 passes for 137 yards.

    The Marshall Thundering Herd did get too much downtime between the end of the season and their showcase versus Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl on December 16, but it was enough of a break to get leading receiver Tyre Brady healthy. He’s caught 56 balls for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Marshall is a 5.5-point underdog to CSU.

    And UCLA and top NFL Draft prospect Josh Rosen is likely to be on the field for the Bruins versus Kansas State in the Catcus Bowl on December 26. Rosen exited the season finale against Cal with a shoulder injury but the time off has allowed him to be ready for his final college outing.

    While the bowl break has allowed those teams – and many others – to heal up, other programs are wishing the postseason game would just get here already. Every bowl season is plagued with news of player suspensions, from either academics or off-field issues, as well as player injuries suffered in the limited practices allowed during bowl prep.

    Washington State cut top receiver Tavares Martin Jr. for a violation of team rules last week, leaving the Cougars without their two best outside receiving targets after fellow WR Isaiah Johnson-Mack decided to leave Wazzu and transfer to a school closer to his family in Florida.

    Georgia linebacker Natrez Patrick was running the risk of being suspended for the Bulldogs’ Rose Bowl matchup against Oklahoma due to drug charges following UGA’s win in the SEC Championship. However, the charges were dropped and the team has yet to hand down any punishment. Patrick was suspended four games earlier this year for misdemeanor marijuana possession.

    With finals over and classes done, as well as practices limited by NCAA rules, players don’t have the same structured schedule to keep them busy and out of trouble. And trips home over the holidays have been the catalyst for many suspensions with players getting into fights and violating team rules while visiting with friends and family.

    Local media are usually the first sources to report on these issues, so keeping a close ear to the ground and anticipating either injury or disciplinary news is the best way to stay ahead of the Bookmakers during the bowl break.

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