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Thread: Saturday 12-16-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

  1. #21
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    Proximity to location a big factor for college football teams during bowl season
    Ashton Grewal

    There are three things you need to know before you bet any college football game this bowl season: who’s playing, what’s the pointspread and where is it being played.

    Last year teams that traveled fewer miles than their opponents went 29-12 straight up (22-19 ATS) in the 41 college football bowls including the national championship game.

    This wasn’t a one-year fluke either. Steve Yoost submitted a study to the Sport Journal in 2009 on the geographical effects on college bowl games. He looked at all 47 BCS bowl games from 1998 to 2009 to try and determine how proximity to a bowl game location can factor as an advantage.

    He found that teams with the shorter trip covered the spread at a 55 percent rate (26-21) and 58 percent (24-17) when excluding games with negligible distance differences between the two traveling teams.

    Yoost concluded the bowl system needs to be changed so that there wouldn’t be as much of a built-in advantage for schools playing in their own backyard. The problem is, of course, the people deciding the matchups aren’t interested in making things fair. They want the games to sellout and there to be enough local interest so that tickets can be marked up.

    It’s much easier to drum up interest when one of the teams playing is essentially a home team. Take Florida Atlantic for example. The Owls will be playing in their home stadium for this year’s Boca Raton Bowl. Last year’s announced attendance for the game was a little over 25,000 in a stadium that holds 30,000, but pictures tell a story different story.

    The Boca Raton Bowl committee is thrilled to have a locate team to pedal in its quest to sell this game out. Florida Atlantic opened as 17.5-point chalk against Akron but the line was quickly bet up to 22.5.

    Here are a few more games with a large disparity in distance between the invited schools.

    Military Bowl
    Navy vs. Virginia
    Odds: Pick, 55
    Location: Navy’s home field

    Liberty Bowl
    Memphis vs. Iowa State
    Odds: Memphis -3.5, 66
    Location: Memphis’ home field

    Orange Bowl
    Miami vs. Wisconsin
    Odds: Wisconsin -6.5, 45
    Location: Miami’s home field

    Belk Bowl
    Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
    Odds: Wake -3, 64.5
    Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte NC – a little over an hour away from Wake’s campus.

  2. #22
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    Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

    RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:47 PM EASTERN POST
    New York Stallion Series Stakes - 5th Avenue Division
    6.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $150,000.00 PURSE

    #5 MISS HOT STONES
    #2 PURE SILVER
    #6 WEGETSTHEMUNNYS
    #3 AUNT BABE

    The New York Stallion Series was created by the New York Thoroughbred Breeders, Inc. Fifth Avenue is a noted street in the New York City borough of Manhattan, dividing the borough's East and West sides. Here in the 32nd running of The 5th Avenue, #5 MISS HOT STONES has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of her three career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her last start. The morning line favorite is #2 PURE SILVER, who drops in class (-2), is the speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her last five outings, including back-to-back, "POWER RUN WINS" in her 4th and 5th races back.

  3. #23
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 10 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 85

    FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 16, 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 16, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 2 GUNTHER 3/1

    # 6 GRAND FASHIONED 10/1

    # 5 WITT STAMP 4/1

    GUNTHER looks respectable to best this field. Expect a much stronger performance with the drop. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 86 speed rating which is one of the strongest in this group. GRAND FASHIONED - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. Caldwell has one of the top winning percentages in this group of animals with entries running at this distance and surface. WITT STAMP - Has been running solidly lately and will probably be up on the front end early on.

  4. #24
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Gulfstream Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:05pm - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 106 Rampart S. (Grade 3)

    Rating: 3

    #4 KING'S GHOST (ML=15/1)
    #1 CURLIN'S APPROVAL (ML=8/5)
    #3 LEWIS BAY (ML=7/2)


    KING'S GHOST - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this mare to be long gone. I think the shorter trip will help this mare stay the trip. CURLIN'S APPROVAL - Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this thoroughbred at the top of my list of top contenders. Based on morning drills, I look for this filly to run a big race. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think her answer would be Gulfstream Park. LEWIS BAY - This filly's last race was back on November 26th but I do believe she can run a good one coming off a vacation. I like this filly a lot here. She shows a lot of consistency, finishing in the money frequently. Earnings per race entered is something that I think can be an extremely key selection factor. This animal is ranked the highest in this field.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NONNA MELA (ML=5/2), #5 ALPINE SKY (ML=6/1),

    NONNA MELA - Don't think this mount will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was substandard when compared with today's class figure. ALPINE SKY - Tough to like the downward spiraling flow (101/97/90) of Equibase speed figures. Recorded a pedestrian speed rating last time out in the Chilukki on November 4th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Bet on #4 KING'S GHOST to win if you can get at least 4/1 odds

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [1,4] Box [3,4]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    [1,3,4] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,5,6] with [1,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

    SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
    [1,3,4] with [1,3,4] with [1,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,5,6] with [1,2,3,4,5,6] Total Cost: $72

  5. #25
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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 1 - Claiming - 4.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 74

    FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 3 ROCK ALL DAY 3/5

    # 1 YODEL UP A STORM 7/2

    # 6 REALLY A PRINCESS 20/1

    ROCK ALL DAY looks to be a solid contender. Will probably go to the front end and might never look back. Could provide positive dividends based on solid recent speed figs with an average of 75. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. YODEL UP A STORM - Is a solid contender based on figs put up as of late under today's conditions. Could best this group of animals here, showing very good figs of late. REALLY A PRINCESS - Solid average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this pony a key contender. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace clash which bodes well with this group.

  6. #26
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

    Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 4

    $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Rolling Double $1 Pick Three (Races 4-5-6)


    Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 1:28P
    FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LEAGUE OF SHADOWS is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LEAGUE OF SHADOWS: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Hor se has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CONFIRMED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has a 4F workout since its last race, and the workout time is faster than its own half-mile time in its last race. Today is a s print and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
    1
    LEAGUE OF SHADOWS
    3/1

    9/5
    7
    CONFIRMED
    7/5

    6/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    LEAGUE OF SHADOWS
    1

    3/1
    Front-runner
    82

    69

    98.6

    65.4

    60.9
    7
    CONFIRMED
    7

    7/5
    Alternator/Front-runner
    0

    0

    69.2

    61.5

    56.5
    4
    SOFT TRIP
    4

    8/1
    Trailer
    76

    62

    48.8

    65.2

    57.7
    2
    SON OF THE SOUTH
    2

    4/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    84

    76

    87.8

    60.7

    54.7
    3
    CHIN TU
    3

    4/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    84.4

    59.7

    51.7
    6
    HEAD OF THE LINE
    6

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    61.0

    34.1

    23.1
    5
    TROJAN THE WILDCAT
    5

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    0

    0

    30.3

    28.4

    15.4

  7. #27
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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Remington Park

    Remington Park - Race 1

    Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta (.10 Cent Minimum) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)(.50 Cent Minimum)


    Allowance • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $43,350 • Post: 7:07P
    FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR TRIAL OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MORHAWK: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GAME BIRD: Horse has run a G ood Race within the last 30 days. ALARM SYSTEM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LIKE A COWBOY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. LINNAEUS: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
    9
    MORHAWK
    5/2

    5/1
    3
    GAME BIRD
    3/1

    6/1
    5
    ALARM SYSTEM
    5/1

    7/1
    1
    LIKE A COWBOY
    15/1

    9/1
    4
    LINNAEUS
    9/2

    10/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    4
    LINNAEUS
    4

    9/2
    Front-runner
    74

    71

    75.2

    70.0

    56.5
    8
    COVINGTON QUALITY
    8

    20/1
    Front-runner
    72

    74

    59.0

    59.0

    48.0
    1
    LIKE A COWBOY
    1

    15/1
    Stalker
    84

    78

    66.2

    63.6

    57.1
    3
    GAME BIRD
    3

    3/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    83

    80

    77.6

    73.8

    66.3
    5
    ALARM SYSTEM
    5

    5/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    81

    83

    70.0

    72.4

    64.9
    9
    MORHAWK
    9

    5/2
    Trailer
    84

    79

    76.9

    75.4

    70.4
    6
    PHANTOM MENACE
    6

    6/1
    Trailer
    71

    73

    68.9

    66.2

    56.2
    7
    IMALITTLEHAZEY
    7

    15/1
    Trailer
    79

    77

    68.3

    69.2

    60.7
    2
    VISCOSITY
    2

    20/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    81

    70

    31.3

    57.8

    42.8

  8. #28
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Turfway Park - Race #3 - Post: 7:15pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,100 Class Rating: 73

    Rating: 4

    #8 WORKTAB (ML=8/1)
    #4 AZOR AHAI (ML=5/1)


    WORKTAB - I unquestionably see favorable signs for this thoroughbred right here. AZOR AHAI - Aboard this animal on November 30th and Mayta is yet again in the irons in this race.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #2 KENTUCKY KITTEN (ML=7/2), #3 ROCKET WARRIOR (ML=4/1), #7 SUN KITTY (ML=5/1),

    KENTUCKY KITTEN - This colt hasn't been showing me anything in the last two races. SUN KITTY - Not the right 'placement' in this event.



    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Play #8 WORKTAB to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [4,8]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    Pass

  9. #29
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    Jim Feist

    Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Saturday, December 16, 2017

    NFL (305) LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS (306) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

    Take: under

    Reason: Your free play for Satudray, December 16, 2017 is in the NFL contest between the Chargers and the Chiefs. Thiis is a huge game for these two teams and their respective playoff chances. It wasn't too long ago that the Chiefs were 4-0 and the Chargers 0-4. Now, these teams are both tied for the AFC lead. This game will have all the atmosphere of a playoff game. The Chiefs have a terrible rush defense, 30th in the league. The Chiefs offensive line will also have to contend with a very good Charges defensive rush, tied for fifth with 37 sacks. The Chargers are 1-7 O/U in their last eight games and 0-4 O/U in their last four away games. The Chiefs are 1-4 O/U in their last five games, 6-14 O/U their last 20 at home vs a team with a winning record. In addition, the Chiefs are 19-42 O/U in their last 61 home games. With five of the last seven in this series going UNDER, I'm sticking with the UNDER here on Saturday.

  10. #30
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    Arthur Ralph Sports

    SAT: OVER the total 61 Mid Tenn/Ark St

  11. #31
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    BIG AL

    Our complimentary selection for Saturday, Dec 16 is:

    Edmonton Oilers +105 over Minnesota Wild.

  12. #32
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    TOMMY BRUNSON

    When these teams played in the Sun Belt Conference, it was the Trojans holding the upper-hand, as Troy captured 7 of the 8 meetings straight up between 2005-12. True, that has been more than a couple of years ago, but I am counting on Troy and their superior defense to take care of business in NOLA this Saturday afternoon, much the way they did last season in the Dollar General Bowl when they took down MAC rep Ohio U, 28-23.

    The Trojans enter this year's bowl game riding a 6-game winning streak, and have covered in each of their last 3 wins - all as the favorite. It is a Troy team that went into Baton Rouge in late September and upset LSU, 24-21 as the near 3-TD underdog. Now they did suffer a "letdown" the following week against South Alabama, but all told, Troy ended things with 10 wins in their 12 games. Their defense did not allow more than 25 points in ANY of their games this year, and held 6 of their last 9 foes to 19 points or less! That's solid defense.

    Compare that to the Mean Green/Eagles of North Texas who allowed 30 points or more 7 times in 13 games this year, and you can see why North Texas is getting around a touchdown today. Remember that all 4 of North Texas' losses this season were by wide margins - 17-points or more - so don't fret about laying the wood with Troy in this spot.

    North Texas may be a little more dangerous on offense, but the Troy defense is the tide-turner today.

    Lay it with the Trojans!

    4* TROY

  13. #33
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    JACK BRAYMAN

    My free pick is going to be on the Georgia State Panthers, catching the points against Western Kentucky today in bowl action.

    The Panthers book-ended their season with consecutive losses, losing the first two of the season and dropping their last two in the campaign. But in between this was a team that played with enough heart that leads me to believe it can hang with the Hilltoppers.

    Western Kentucky lost four of its last five in the season, and it's also a team that progressively got worst at keeping teams out of the end zone.

    The Hilltoppers allowed an average of 35.5 over their last six games. So even though they ranked 50th overall on defense, keep in mind they were much better in the first half of the season.

    The two other telling intangibles in playing against Western Kentucky come from the red zone. The Hilltoppers rank 120th with their red zone offense, and 102nd with their red zone defense. That is where this team is going to suffer against Georgia State.

    Take the underdog, as this could come down to the end. Don't be surprised if the Panthers win this one outright.

    1* GEORGIA STATE

  14. #34
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    ERIC SCHROEDER

    I'm going to hit the gridiron for Saturday's free play, and I'll take a look at this game between the Marshall Thundering Herd and Colorado State Rams. I actually like the underdog here, as I think Marshall will steal this one outright. I'm playing the Herd plus the points, but I will have a small piece on the moneyline as well.

    Interestingly enough about these teams, close to two months ago they both were in the hunt for conference championships in the Mountain West and C-USA.

    Then the Rams finished on a 1-3 skid, and the Thundering Herd lost four of their last five. But I know there is talent across the board with each roster, and with both teams having several weeks to prepare, they'll both be fresh and motivated to end their seasons with a victory.

    Marshall is a team that saw three of those final losses by five points or less. Trust me when I tell you this team could have nine or 10 wins. And knowing Colorado State had a rugged non-conference schedule that included Alabama, the Herd will step their game up to challenge the Rams.

    The star of this one? Marshall quarterback Chase Litton, who completed more than 60 percent of his passes for 2,853 yards and 23 touchdowns. The Rams were torched for more than 200 yards passing eight different times this season, and will be vulnerable to the big play today.

    Take the pup.

    4* MARSHALL

  15. #35
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    TOMMY BRUNSON

    One of the first things I look for come this time of the season - bowl season, is how schools have fared in the past in their bowl games, as some coaches just seem to do a better job than other coaches, as some teams are just ready to "go bowling" while others seem happy to be there and enjoy their end of the season "perk trip".

    In this New Mexico Bowl we have a good example of the theory I just mentioned, as both Marshall and Colorado State play this one in Albuquerque with identical 7-5 ledgers, but that is about where the similarities end, as it is clear Thundering Herd head coach Doc Holliday gets his teams prepared a little better than Rams head coach Mike Bobo.

    Marshall did not make it to a bowl game last season, as they finished 2016 just 3-9 on the year. The Herd though have won and covered their previous 4 bowl games under Holliday in his 8th season at the helm! That's pretty darn solid when you consider a play today on Marshall gets you some solid points to work with.

    One of the reasons Colorado State is listed as this "big" of a favorite is because they are familiar with the venue having won a regular season game on this field versus the Lobos of New Mexico. Do keep in mind that bowl games and Mike Bobo have NOT been a winning mix, as this will be the Rams 5th straight bowl trip, and they come in at 0-4 against the spread, losing their last 3. Last season the Rams allowed a whopping 61-points to Idaho in the Famous Potato Bowl! The Rams last bowl win came on this field in 2013, but they did not cover that game.

    I see a similar outcome today, as the Rams may have a slight advantage on offense, but the Thundering Herd does own the better defense and special teams - making the points that much more valuable.

    Colorado State failed their last 6 games against the spread leading up to this Saturday contest, and a look at the Herd's last 4 games shows none decided by more than 5-points either way. Marshall also covered ALL 5 tries this season when installed as the underdog.

    I like Marshall to cover again.

    2* MARSHALL (On a 1* to 5* basis)

  16. #36
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    JEFF BENTON

    Your Saturday freebie is the Chargers to keep on charging as they take over first place in the AFC West with the win at Kansas City.

    Los Angeles is among the hottest teams in the NFL as we head down the stretch, as the Chargers hit Arrowhead Stadium riding a 4-game winning streak. They have also won 7 of their last 9 straight up, while covering in 7 of their last 9 contests.

    Kansas City? Well, the Chiefs did record a home win over Oakland last Sunday to stop the bleeding, but there is no disguising the fact KC was once 5-0, and they now stand at 7-6. It doesn't take Einstein to see that that is a 2-6 slide their last 8 games straight up.

    The Chiefs do own the last 7 series wins, but the Chargers have covered in their last pair of visits to Arrowhead Stadium.

    Stick with the hot Bolts on Saturday night.

    3* L.A. CHARGERS

  17. #37
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    JOEY JUICE

    Let's back the Cleveland Cavaliers as they host the Utah Jazz who are on the road for the second game of a back-to-back after surprising Boston in Boston by 12 last night. That impressive win gives us tremendous line value with Cleveland tonight. Cleveland won their third in a row, and 16th in the last 17 games by beating the Lakers 121-114 at home Thursday night.

    A look inside the numbers reveals a clear advantage for the Cleveland Cavaliers as the banged-up Utah Jazz are a mere 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.

    The Cavs on the other hand are rolling and they’re getting healthier and healthier as stars Isiah Thomas and Tristan Thompson get set to return soon.

    It took everything they had to beat the Celtics last night, and Utah will have nothing left in the tank for Cleveland tonight. The Cavaliers are the play.

    5* CLEVELAND

  18. #38
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    ANDRE RAMIREZ
    NFL | Dec 16, 2017
    Chargers vs. Chiefs
    46 OVER

    The Chargers just bumped their winning streak to four in a row last week with a 30-13 victory over Washington. Los Angeles jumped out to a 13-0 first-quarter lead, let the Redskins get within 13-6 then scored the next 17 points of the game, on its way toward an easy cover of a six-point spread.

    On the day, the Chargers outgained Washington 488-201, made 24 first downs, compared to nine for the Redskins, won the ground battle 174-65 and ground out a 35-25 time of possession advantage.

    So Los Angeles has now outgained each of its last four opponents, three of them by 130 yards and more. The Chargers are also 7-2 both SU and ATS over their last nine games.

    At 7-6 overall, Los Angeles is tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs but does not own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Chargers also trail 7-6 Buffalo by a tiebreaker in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot. So this game is crucial for Los Angeles.

    This game will be shootout, but I like the Chargers to pull the victory here. Chargers 34-23. Lay the money on the over.

  19. #39
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    CHIP CHIRIMBES

    Western Kentucky vs Georgia State

    Panthers (+) over Hilltoppers- Neither of these clubs made a profit this season as Georgia State was just 4-7 ATS and WKY was even worse going 3-9 ATS and 1-5 ATS on the road. The Panthers enter off two losses and return to the Cure Bowl after a year absence. Take GEORGIA STATE!

  20. #40
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    JACK JONES

    Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: Colorado State -3.5

    The Colorado State Rams were expected to compete for a Mountain West title this season with all they had returning. But they failed to live up to expectations. They went just 7-5 in the regular season for a third consecutive year, and now Mike Bobo’s job is perhaps on the line.

    There’s no question the Rams will be motivated. They have lost three straight bowl games overall, including the last two in the favorite role. They lost as 15-point favorites to Idaho last year as they failed to show up. This senior-laden team will want to get their first taste of a bowl victory in this one.

    I also think Colorado State is undervalued after losing three of its final four games to close out the season. But one of those losses was a 52-59 (OT) loss to Boise State in which they blew a 24-point lead. That 52-point effort just shows the kind of firepower this offense has against a very good Boise State defense.

    Senior QB Nick Stevens wants to try to impress NFL scouts one last time. He leads a potent Colorado State offense that will be the best unit on the field Saturday. The Rams average 501 yards per game and 6.7 per play. They have a balanced attack with 211 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry, as well as 290 passing yards per game and 8.5 per attempt. I believe they simply outscore Marshall here.

    I also like the fact that Colorado State is familiar with the field for the New Mexico Bowl. The Rams beat the Lobos 27-24 in New Mexico earlier this season. They are used to the altitude, while Marshall is not. They will also have a lot more fans there as it’s a much shorter trip for Colorado State fans than Marshall fans.

    Marshall feasted on an easy early schedule to get off to a 6-1 start. But the Thundering Herd came back down to earth down the stretch against some better competition. They went just 1-4 in their final five games. Now they have a laundry list of injuries and possible suspensions, most notably on the offensive and defensive lines.

    The Thundering Herd have a poor offense and won’t be able to keep up. They average just 370 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. They do have a good defense, but they haven’t seen many offenses as potent as Colorado State this season.

    The Rams are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record. Colorado State is 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games. We are getting the better team here in the Rams at just over a field goal, and they’ll be highly motivated while also playing in familiar surroundings. Bet Colorado State Saturday.

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