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Thread: Service Plays Saturday 12/16/17

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Senior Member Buzz Kill's Avatar
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    Sharp's Football Analysis early week release.......... 12/16/17 || 303 Chicago Bears +6I've played on the Chicago Bears more than any other team this year. In the 9 weeks between weeks 3 and 11, we'vetaken them 5 times and hit 4-1 ATS. The last time we took the Bears was week 11, against these same Lions. Wegrabbed +3.5, and the Bears jumped out to a 10-0 lead and a 17-7 lead, which wasn't 17-0 only because Mitchell Trubiskyfumbled a snap and the Lions returned it 27 yards for a defensive TD. The Bears ended up covering thanks to the hook,which is one reason I want to get on this side at +6, before the line continues to trend down.So it shouldn't be too surprising that we'd jump on the Bears early this week. A big reason for liking the Bears in thesematchups against the Lions is the strength of the Bears is met by the weakness of the Lions: rushing the football.Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL. But the Lions run defense is one of theweakest they've faced. In that week 11 meeting, the Bears were DOMINANT on the ground, and I have to add emphasis tothat word. They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60% success rate. To run the ball 30 times andproduce 222 yards is amazing. But add to it that this wasn't just a few huge runs, but a consistent 60% success rate? That's unbelievable. The Bears are not even a great rushing offense. They rank about league average. And part of that has to do with thetough schedule. But the Lions run defense has been getting gashed with frequency.Since that Bears game, recall that on Thanksgiving we took Latavius Murray over his rushing yards prop when the Lionshosted the Vikings, and that went over in the 3rd quarter. The next week, the Lions traveled to the Ravens. The RavensMy AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutchose to pass all over the Lions (they went 66% pass through the game's first 3 quarters), but when they decided to handthe ball off to lead back Alex Collins, he crushed, recording a 67% success rate and averaging 5 yards per carry. Then lastweek, the Lions traveled to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Though they trailed most of the game, the Buccaneersand their 26th ranked run offense remained a 41% share of the offense simply because the efficiency which was gainedwas too good to pass up: Tampa Bay recorded a 64% success rate on run plays and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. And theBuccaneers are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.That takes us to the trending performance of the Lions run defense, which is a story that focuses on strength of scheduleand key injury.From weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting line-up, the Lions run defense ranked #6 in rushing success rateallowed (39%) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10th). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid successcame against the 3rd easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since week 6, the Lions have played the #1 most difficult schedule of rushing offenses. And that spelled disaster. From week 6 onward, the Lions run defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54%)and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14%). Back to discussing the Bears, they are still cranking away with production on the ground, recording 232 rushing yards lastweek, a 6.1 YPC and 55% success rate on the ground. Both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen averaged over 6 YPC. The below graphic, courtesy of Sharp Football Stats, depicts the extent of the failings of the Lions defense in recentweeks. And keep in mind these came against very mediocre to poor offenses. Even the Cleveland Browns posted a 61%success rate on their rushes. And the Bears posted a 30% explosive run rate in their last meeting. With a strong,explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 82, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Stephen Nover

    3* TOY

    Arkansas St. / Middle Tenn. St. over 61.5

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    SSI Wins Parlays Lifestyle

    Broncos ML/Lions ML/Chiefs ML-Thurs-Sat NFL Parlay (5 UNITS)

    MTSU +3.5/Oregon -7/Colorado State -5.5 (4 UNITS)-NCAAF Sat Parlay

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Sharp Money Plays Sports

    CFB

    Top Play - 5* Troy -6.5
    4* Arkansas State -3 (-115)

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    The Advantaged Player (TAP)

    Georgia State +6.5

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    Senior Member Buzz Kill's Avatar
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    Pennywise

    Oregon/Boise St over 59.5
    Troy/North Texas under 62

    OREGON/BOISE ST OVER
    I look for POINTS GALORE !!!
    OREGON SCORES 40 themselves... Leaving BOISE to scrap up 20 and they do that easy!
    I have this game at
    OREGON 41
    BOISE STATE 33
    Easily taking the OVER.
    Herbert is back and the Oregon Machine will be Rolling.... But I can see the Ducks being less than stellar on D here...

    TROY/NORTH TEXAS UNDER
    I will be surprised if they combine for 38 pts... Let alone 62 !
    Seriously. This is one of those games where you go "HUH"
    No way this game reaches the 60s...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENT FIREPOWER !!
    WOW.....

    Last edited by Buzz Kill; 12-14-2017 at 04:11 PM.
    Free Heber! Heber Carl Jentzsch, 82, President of the Church of Scientology International, is believed to be held in a Scientology prison (RPF). He has not been seen since 2005.

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Jimmy Moore

    4* Boise State +7 (206)

    Oregon is going to be in a tough spot here losing their first year head coach already to another school. This is also not a good ATS spot for them as they are just 3-7 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal to Mountain West teams. Boise is 5-0 ATS as bowl underdogs when their win percentage is over .750 as it is here. Boise has covered both games this season they have been an underdog, look for them to make it 3 for 3 here. Thank you and good luck.

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    ASI

    COLLEGE FOOTBALL
    PATRICK- Season Record (31-29-5 -5.89)
    12/16 (released 12/14)
    Middle Tennessee St +4 Arkansas State (8pm)

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Hackman

    Las Vegas Bowl
    Boise St+ 7.5

    New Mexico Bowl
    Marshall +5.5 and ml 195

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    Goodfella 3* Game Of Month Oregon/Boise over 61

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    H&H Sports (CFB)

    4* Boise State/Oregon Over 61

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Greg shaker

    3* Marshall+6

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    King Creole

    2* W.kentucky / Georgia st over 52

    2* Chargers / Kansas City under 46

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Fezzik

    3* 306 KAN 1.0 (-110) William Hill vs 305 LAC

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    Service Play Moderator Can'tPickAWinner's Avatar
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    Joey Cassano

    Over KC

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    Oregon senior running back Royce Freeman will not play in Saturday’s Las Vegas Bowl, rather he will sit out as he prepares for the NFL draft.

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    Megalocks
    There are three major reasons for this play aside from overall talent. Motivation (we may be wrong ?), the fact that star QB Justin Herbert was injured for a good chunk of time and the Oregon DEFENSE is vastly underrated.
    The line moved from -7 -115 to -7 -106 when the news came out that Oregon RB Freeman was out. That was just minutes after we sent out our pick. What do you think that is telling you ? The best RB of all-time is not playing. Line barely moves. We can debate this crap all year but most line move action is complete noise. Boise can win and/or cover. We side with the Ducks. Let’s see what happens.
    Conclusion Official play: Oregon -7 -115

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    GC: Las Vegas Bowl

    Saturday card has a Rare 100% 6* TOP Rated Bowl total + 2 more bowl best bets, the AFC West Play of the Month in NFL, 2 BIG NCAAB RPI Scale power systems and a 100% NBA Top play total. 7* NFL Game of the year on Sunday, Bowl comp play below


    The Las Vegas bowl Comp play is on Boise St. Plus the 7 points Game 205 at 3:30 on ABC Sports. Boise is a perfect 5-0 ats as a bowl dog if they are winning 75% or more of their games on the season. They happen to also be 3-0 in The Las Vegas bowl and 9-3 to the spreads if they scored less than 20 last out. Neutral field dogs from 5-10 off a home favored win vs an opponent off a home win are 16-6 ats . Bowl dogs off a win and ats loss in Championship games have covered 16 of 23. Oregon has an interim coach with Taggart heading to FSU. The Ducks are 0-7 ats after allowing less than 100 yards rushing and 0-7 ats off a win of 20 or more. Take the points with Boise. On Saturday we have 3 big Bowl plays up all from exclusive systems, including a 6* Top 100% totals system, the AFC WEST NFL Play of the Month, 2 powerful NCAAB RPI Scale system sides and the 100% NBA Total of the week. Don't miss this massive card. Sunday we will release our 7* NFL Game of the year. Message or see us on facebook to jump on. For the Las Vegas bowl. Take the points with Boise St. RV- GC Sports

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    Norm Hitzges
    COLLEGE BOWLS

    DOUBLE PLAY: Boise +7 Oregon 9SATURDAY)
    SINGLE PLAYS:
    Troy -6 1/2 North Texas (Saturday)
    Marshall +5 1/2 Colorado State (Saturday)
    Florida Atlantic -22 1/2 Akron (Tuesday)

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