Service Plays Saturday 12/16/17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Buzz Kill]

Sharp's Football Analysis early week release.......... 12/16/17 || 303 Chicago Bears +6I've played on the Chicago Bears more than any other team this year. In the 9 weeks between weeks 3 and 11, we'vetaken them 5 times and hit 4-1 ATS. The last time we took the Bears was week 11, against these same Lions. Wegrabbed +3.5, and the Bears jumped out to a 10-0 lead and a 17-7 lead, which wasn't 17-0 only because Mitchell Trubiskyfumbled a snap and the Lions returned it 27 yards for a defensive TD. The Bears ended up covering thanks to the hook,which is one reason I want to get on this side at +6, before the line continues to trend down.So it shouldn't be too surprising that we'd jump on the Bears early this week. A big reason for liking the Bears in thesematchups against the Lions is the strength of the Bears is met by the weakness of the Lions: rushing the football.Chicago has faced one of the most brutal stretches of run defenses in the NFL. But the Lions run defense is one of theweakest they've faced. In that week 11 meeting, the Bears were DOMINANT on the ground, and I have to add emphasis tothat word. They ran the ball for 222 yards, at 7.4 yards per carry and a 60% success rate. To run the ball 30 times andproduce 222 yards is amazing. But add to it that this wasn't just a few huge runs, but a consistent 60% success rate? That's unbelievable. The Bears are not even a great rushing offense. They rank about league average. And part of that has to do with thetough schedule. But the Lions run defense has been getting gashed with frequency.Since that Bears game, recall that on Thanksgiving we took Latavius Murray over his rushing yards prop when the Lionshosted the Vikings, and that went over in the 3rd quarter. The next week, the Lions traveled to the Ravens. The RavensMy AccountMy PlaysChange PasswordEmail PreferencesLogoutchose to pass all over the Lions (they went 66% pass through the game's first 3 quarters), but when they decided to handthe ball off to lead back Alex Collins, he crushed, recording a 67% success rate and averaging 5 yards per carry. Then lastweek, the Lions traveled to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers. Though they trailed most of the game, the Buccaneersand their 26th ranked run offense remained a 41% share of the offense simply because the efficiency which was gainedwas too good to pass up: Tampa Bay recorded a 64% success rate on run plays and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. And theBuccaneers are one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL.That takes us to the trending performance of the Lions run defense, which is a story that focuses on strength of scheduleand key injury.From weeks 1-5, when Haloti Ngata was in the starting line-up, the Lions run defense ranked #6 in rushing success rateallowed (39%) and 10th in explosive run rate allowed (10th). But in hindsight, there were some issues. This solid successcame against the 3rd easiest schedule of rushing offenses. Then, the Lions lost Ngata. And since week 6, the Lions have played the #1 most difficult schedule of rushing offenses. And that spelled disaster. From week 6 onward, the Lions run defense ranks 31st in rushing success rate allowed (54%)and 27th in explosive run rate allowed (14%). Back to discussing the Bears, they are still cranking away with production on the ground, recording 232 rushing yards lastweek, a 6.1 YPC and 55% success rate on the ground. Both Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen averaged over 6 YPC. The below graphic, courtesy of Sharp Football Stats, depicts the extent of the failings of the Lions defense in recentweeks. And keep in mind these came against very mediocre to poor offenses. Even the Cleveland Browns posted a 61%success rate on their rushes. And the Bears posted a 30% explosive run rate in their last meeting. With a strong,explosive run game, I see the Bears staying in this one from start to finish.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stephen Nover

3* TOY

Arkansas St. / Middle Tenn. St. over 61.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SSI Wins Parlays Lifestyle

Broncos ML/Lions ML/Chiefs ML-Thurs-Sat NFL Parlay (5 UNITS)

MTSU +3.5/Oregon -7/Colorado State -5.5 (4 UNITS)-NCAAF Sat Parlay

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Sharp Money Plays Sports

CFB

Top Play - 5* Troy -6.5
4* Arkansas State -3 (-115)

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The Advantaged Player (TAP)

Georgia State +6.5

[Buzz Kill]

Pennywise

Oregon/Boise St over 59.5
Troy/North Texas under 62

OREGON/BOISE ST OVER
I look for POINTS GALORE !!!
OREGON SCORES 40 themselves... Leaving BOISE to scrap up 20 and they do that easy!
I have this game at
OREGON 41
BOISE STATE 33
Easily taking the OVER.
Herbert is back and the Oregon Machine will be Rolling.... But I can see the Ducks being less than stellar on D here...

TROY/NORTH TEXAS UNDER
I will be surprised if they combine for 38 pts... Let alone 62 !
Seriously. This is one of those games where you go "HUH"
No way this game reaches the 60s...NOT ENOUGH CONSISTENT FIREPOWER !!
WOW.....

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Moore

4* Boise State +7 (206)

Oregon is going to be in a tough spot here losing their first year head coach already to another school. This is also not a good ATS spot for them as they are just 3-7 ATS as favorites of more than a field goal to Mountain West teams. Boise is 5-0 ATS as bowl underdogs when their win percentage is over .750 as it is here. Boise has covered both games this season they have been an underdog, look for them to make it 3 for 3 here. Thank you and good luck.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASI

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
PATRICK- Season Record (31-29-5 -5.89)
12/16 (released 12/14)
Middle Tennessee St +4 Arkansas State (8pm)

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Hackman

Las Vegas Bowl
Boise St+ 7.5

New Mexico Bowl
Marshall +5.5 and ml 195

[zsafern84]

Goodfella 3* Game Of Month Oregon/Boise over 61

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H&H Sports (CFB)

4* Boise State/Oregon Over 61

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Greg shaker

3* Marshall+6

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King Creole

2* W.kentucky / Georgia st over 52

2* Chargers / Kansas City under 46

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Fezzik

3* 306 KAN 1.0 (-110) William Hill vs 305 LAC