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Tuesday 12-19-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 75
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 TOAST TO LOGAN 5/1
# 6 SHES A GAMBLE 8/1
# 9 BJS THUNDERSTRUCK 3/1
I think TOAST TO LOGAN is a quite good choice. Looks very good to be up on the front end at the first call. Had one of the most competitive speed figures of this group in his last competition. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 69 Equibase Speed Figure which is one of the most respectable in this group of animals. SHES A GAMBLE - Has performed well recently in short races, posting a nifty 63 avg speed figure. BJS THUNDERSTRUCK - Has respectable front speed and should fare soundly versus this field. The average class fig alone makes this horse a key contender.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #3 - Post: 1:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,500 Class Rating: 94
Rating: 3
#6 OFFLEE SINISTER (ML=5/2)
#4 HANDSUP MONEYDOWN (ML=8/1)
#3 CHARITABLE (ML=12/1)
OFFLEE SINISTER - Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a sharp race on November 29th. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. Past performance data show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figs. Rivera should be on a live horse in this race. This gelding might as well call Mahoning Valley Race Course home. Don't overlook how he races well over this venue. HANDSUP MONEYDOWN - Rounding his way back into form. Each of his finish positions is getting better in his recent starts. This gelding has been running at higher class levels previously. He did win versus better, a $17,500 Optional Claiming race though. I believe this one is in the right spot today. This gelding is in exceptional form right now. Ended up third last time around the track and comes back rapidly. This mount picks up a lot of money per race around the track. I believe he can augment that total in this event. CHARITABLE - When Ccamaque and Brown join forces on animals the ROI has been fantastic at +146.
Vulnerable Contenders: #5 B ROD MACLEAN (ML=7/2), #1A PUT IT BACK JACK (ML=4/1), #1 BIG JOE CANDY (ML=4/1),
B ROD MACLEAN - This colt didn't do much last time out. PUT IT BACK JACK - Don't think that this gelding has value at 4/1 this time out. BIG JOE CANDY - Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races lately. Improbable to see him doing it this time out either.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #6 OFFLEE SINISTER on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing
Parx Racing - Race 1
First Half Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Claiming $15,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 56 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 12:25
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 123 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. SISTER WENDY is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * REGAL ANTICIPATION: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LION AND THE WOLF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7
REGAL ANTICIPATION
6/5
9/5
6
LION AND THE WOLF
5/1
7/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
6
LION AND THE WOLF
6
5/1
Front-runner
53
41
80.8
34.8
29.3
7
REGAL ANTICIPATION
7
6/5
Front-runner
73
70
80.2
67.2
65.2
4
SAFELY TOUCH
4
20/1
Front-runner
51
40
79.0
22.6
11.1
3
SISTER WENDY
3
5/2
Alternator/Stalker
55
46
56.2
41.0
35.0
1
SARA'S LAST DANCE
1
12/1
Alternator/Non-contender
0
0
44.2
27.4
17.9
2
PHILJANGLE
2
8/1
Alternator/Non-contender
65
57
37.8
33.2
25.7
Unknown Running Style: ROSIE TOO (10/1) [Jockey: Caballero Hector - Trainer: Dunn John J].
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park
Sunland Park - Race 8
1st Half Late $1 Daily Double /$1 Exacta / Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $12,100 • Post: 3:29P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 19, 2017 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MAKER PAY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DIABOLICA L QUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. BEAUTYS RAP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BLUE EYES WHO: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 y ards if a Quarter Horse race). PLENTY SPECIAL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
9
MAKER PAY
8/1
6/1
8
DIABOLICAL QUEEN
20/1
7/1
10
BEAUTYS RAP
4/1
7/1
3
BLUE EYES WHO
15/1
7/1
2
PLENTY SPECIAL
8/1
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
12
BROADWAY RUNAWAY
12
5/1
Front-runner
72
67
97.4
59.2
49.2
8
DIABOLICAL QUEEN
8
20/1
Front-runner
72
69
90.6
63.2
53.2
7
WESTERN BOUND
7
20/1
Front-runner
76
59
87.8
56.2
42.7
2
PLENTY SPECIAL
2
8/1
Front-runner
72
78
83.2
68.6
58.1
11
FLYING BOB ED
11
15/1
Front-runner
71
69
76.0
58.2
41.2
4
CHICAS MINISTERETT
4
10/1
Front-runner
70
55
75.5
52.8
35.8
1
DEVONAS DEVIL
1
3/1
Front-runner
77
73
70.0
55.4
43.4
5
BLOSS
5
6/1
Front-runner
72
62
68.4
56.6
43.1
6
DANZIG TERA
6
20/1
Front-runner
78
62
68.4
40.4
22.4
3
BLUE EYES WHO
3
15/1
Alternator/Front-runner
76
69
74.8
67.0
58.5
10
BEAUTYS RAP
10
4/1
Alternator/Stalker
77
71
72.2
58.2
51.2
9
MAKER PAY
9
8/1
Trailer
72
74
53.6
69.2
57.7
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Turf Paradise - Race #1 - Post: 12:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 87
Rating: 3
#3 SENNA (ML=4/1)
#1 TOCCET'S CHARM (ML=2/1)
#5 RONNIE CLOUD (ML=12/1)
SENNA - I like the way this gelding's finish positions have gotten better with each start recently. A sign of a thoroughbred coming into top form. This gelding is in nice form. Ran first on December 4th. TOCCET'S CHARM - Winless in his last three starts, this gelding did win on Jul 8th at Hastings Park versus tougher competition. Aboard this entrant on Nov 28th and Corbett is right back in the irons in today's contest. This gelding is in nice form, having run a good race on Nov 28th, finishing second. RONNIE CLOUD - Arrieta rode this animal for the initial time in the last race and comes right back today. Good return on investment for this rider and handler twosome. This gelding is in fine condition. Ended up first on November 27th.
Vulnerable Contenders: #4 EVENING CONCERTO (ML=9/5), #2 MISSING GROOM (ML=7/2),
EVENING CONCERTO - Can't play this probable favorite off the long layoff. MISSING GROOM - I can't play this frequent non-winner. Gets the task fulfilled once in a while.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #3 SENNA on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 4 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8000 Class Rating: 86
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE OCTOBER 19, 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 5 LUCK OUT 2/1
# 1 WEB OF DEMONS 3/1
# 2 FRIED PICKLES 5/2
LUCK OUT looks to be a very good contender. When a conditioner brings any pony back this quickly it is a positive sign. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a key contender. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt route races as of late. WEB OF DEMONS - Vergara has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 22 percent clip. She looks formidable in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. FRIED PICKLES - The conditioner wheels this entrant back quickly to race again. Earning some nice profits in dirt route races.
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Doc’s Sports
#211 Take Akron Zips over Florida Atlantic Owls (Boca Raton Bowl, Tuesday, 12/19 7 pm ESPN)
What a season Lane Kiffin had at Florida Atlanta this season. He won 10 games to go along with a Conference USA Championship. But unfortunately Florida Atlantic may be the end of the line for him, as he was not considered for a coaching promotion due to the bridges he has burned in the past. I just do not see them running over an Akron team that is thrilled to be in this bowl game. Toledo is a very similar team to Florida Atlantic and I expect a similar result in this game, a 15-18 point victory for FAU. Akron is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. FAU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 nonconference games.
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RED DOG SPORTS
NCAA-F | Dec 19, 2017
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
Akron +23
FAU has been great this year under Lance Kiffin. They won just 3 games last year and they get to play their bowl game in the state of Florida and should have plenty of fans in attendance. However, it has been several weeks since they played and Akron should be motivated being the largest of all the underdogs in bowl action. Take the points since you are getting +23.
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MARK FRANCO
NCAA-F | Dec 19, 2017
Akron vs. Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic-22½
Florida Atlantic won't have to travel far for its bowl game; in fact, the team won't have to travel at all. The Owls will be home for their postseason appearance on Dec. 19, when they face Akron in the Boca Raton Bowl.
The Owls played a competitive non-conference schedule and absorbed three losses before going 8-0 in Conference USA action. They defeated North Texas 41-17 on Nov. 30 to win the league title and possess one of the nation's top running backs in league MVP Devin Singletary, not to mention an efficient passing game led by Jason Driskel. Florida Atlantic, which is playing in its first bowl game since 2008, finished 3-9 in each of the previous three seasons before turning things around under Kiffin, the former coach at Tennessee and USC, as well as of the NFL's Oakland Raiders.
Akron fell to Toledo 45-28 in the Mid-American Conference championship game - a contest that wasn't as close as the final score indicated - but still was selected for a bowl game for the second time in three years. The Zips lost to Penn State and Iowa State by a combined 93-14 margin early this season.
The Zips do not have an impressive rushing attack, as they average 3.3 yards per carry and didn't have a single player gain 400 during the season.
Zips are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games on grass. Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
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RYAN WORDEN
NCAA-B | Dec 19, 2017
South Dakota vs. UCLA
South Dakota+7½
UCLA doesn't have the offensive firepower at the moment to be favored by this much over anyone and that includes South Dakota who is a quality team. The Coyotes play very good defense holding teams to under 70 ppg and their offense is very capable of putting up 75-80 points on anyone as the proved by scoring 80 against Duke on December 2nd.
UCLA will be better in February and March after their young players go through the Pac 12 schedule but right now they are having trouble scoring against good defensive teams. They have lost their last 2 games to Michigan and Cincinnati, who also play great D and couldn't break 70 in either game. South Dakota will be able to ugly this game up and keep it in the 70's which will leave the outcome in doubt until the very end and earn South Dakota the cover. Take The Points and South Dakota To Cover.
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Tuesday, December 19, 2017
CB (527) GEORGIA TECH VS (528) GEORGIA
Take: (528) GEORGIA
Reason: Your free play for Tuesday, December 19, 2017 is in the Intrastate battle between the Georgia Bulldogs and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Georgia has just two games left before entering conference play with Ga Tech tonight and Temple up next. The Bulldogs are off a loss at U Mass, 62-72. It was just their second loss of the season, the other coming in a tourney against San Diego State, 68-75. Tech snapped its three game losing streak with a win at home over Florida A&M, 79-54. They had lost to Grambling State, Tennessee and Wofford. Two of those losses to much inferior opponents. Georgia is a 4.5 point favorite on their home court. My number makes this game into the double digits. Play Georgia.
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Arthur Ralph Sports
FREE play: TUES Nevada -16
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BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Tuesday, Dec 19 is:
Tampa Bay Lightning over Vegas Golden Knights.
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STEPHEN NOVER
NCAA-B | Dec 19, 2017
Illinois-Chicago vs. Illinois State
Illinois-Chicago+10½
This isn't so much a play on Illinois-Chicago as it is a fade on Illinois State laying double-digits in a huge letdown spot.
The Redbirds upset Mississippi, 101-97, in overtime on the road this past Saturday. It was a dramatic and great victory for the Redbirds. So Illinois State can't be blamed for taking lightly regarded Illinois-Chicago lightly. The Redbirds also have a far more important game on deck when they open Missouri Valley Conference play against Evansville on Saturday. Illinois State isn't good enough to cover a margin this big against a Horizon League team without being focused and playing well. As a rule, I don't like to lay big numbers with a Missouri Valley Conference team since it's a conference known for defense and slow tempo. Plus the Redbirds just aren't that good. They surrender nearly 77 points a game and are one of the weakest rebounding teams in Division I ranking 339th out of 351 teams. They upset MIssissippi by playing five guards in overtime. That was a good shock tactic, but it won't hold up for an entire game. Illinois State upset another SEC team, South Carolina, last month. The Redbirds then lost 82-64 to Boise State in their next game. Again, my handicap is nearly entirely based on a projected letdown factor from Illinois State. But Illinois-Chicago is 2-1 in its last three games and off a win against Dartmouth. The Flames have a top shot-blocker in Tai Odiase. He is the Flames' career-leader in blocked shots with 281, which is the second-highest active career total among Division I players.
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MIKE LUNDIN
NHL | Dec 19, 2017
Jets vs. Predators
Predators-149
The Nashville Predators are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, and they look like a solid favorite when they host the Winnipeg Jets Tuesday night.
Nashville is coming off a perfect three-game sweep through Western Canada, winning at Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary while outscoring its opponents by a combined 13-1. Netminder Pekka Rinne is 9-1-1 with only 22 goals allowed through his past 11 starts. Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck is 5-6 with a somewhat bloated 2.83 GAA on the road this season.
The Preds are 11-2-2 home at Bridgestone Arena, while the Jets have lost six straight games on the road and five of their last seven overall. Nashville has won four of the last five as a home team in the series.
My free pick is on Nashville Predators.
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LARRY NESS
My 1* free play is on the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Kings have dropped two straight, most recently a 108-93 setback at Toronto on Sunday.
Philadelphia will look to bounce back at home here after falling 117-115 in Chicago last night.
Note that the 76ers play with revenge today as well as they’ve lost two straight in this series, including a 109-108 setback in the first matchup this year back on November 9th.
The Kings average just 96.1 PPG, while conceding 105.6. Sacramento sports a ton of young talent, including rookie PG De’Aaron Fox, who averages 9.7 points, 2.9 boards and 3.8 assists per game.
The 76ers average 108.9 PPG and concede 109.3. Rookie Ben Simmons averages 17.3 points, 8.9 boards, 7.8 assists and 2.11 steals per game.
I’ll point out though that Sacramento has struggled in this spot for bettors, going an awful 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 against the Eastern Conference, while Philadelphia is 2-1 ATS in its last three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent.
Big man Joel Embiid is expected back in the line-up for the 76ers, but even if he doesn’t play I think the 76ers avenge the earlier loss and bounce back after last night’s setback. Consider the home side in this one.
Good luck…Larry
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JOEY JUICE
Let's back King James and the Cleveland Cavs as the look to keep their momentum going on the road vs the Milwaukee Bucks tonight. Cleveland just won its fifth straight over Washington 106-99, also on the road.
Milwaukee just lost their third straight 115-111 at Houston, naturally a respectable loss.
In the series, the Cavaliers have won 5 straight and 8 of 9, and that includes a pair of games this season.
A look inside the numbers reveals a huge advantage ATS for Cleveland. The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Milwaukee, on the other hand, 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference, 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Central, and most importantly, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
This one is all LeBron and Company.
4* CLEVELAND
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NBA
Tuesday, December 19
Wizards won nine of last 10 games with New Orleans; under is 8-2 in those games. Pelicans are 2-3 vs spread in last five games in this building. New Orleans is 4-6 in last 10 games, but 3-0-1 vs spread in game following its last four losses; they’re 5-5 as road underdogs. Last 10 NO games went over total. Washington won three of last four home games; they’re 4-8 as home favorites. Eight of their last nine games stayed under total.
Kings won three of last four games with Philly; they’re 1-3 vs spread in last four games in this building. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven series games. Sacramento lost five of its last seven games; they’re 6-8-1 vs spread as road underdogs. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. 76ers lost lost six of their last seven games; they’re 1-4 vs spread in last five tries as a home fave, 0-3 vs spread if they played night before. Last four Philly games went over total.
Cavaliers won their last five games with Milwaukee (3-1-1 vs spread); they’re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Eight of last ten series games went over total. Cleveland won five in row, nine of last ten games; they’re 5-5 as road favorites. Six of their last eight games stayed under the total. Bucks lost their last three games; they’re 6-8 vs spread at home, 0-1 as an underdog. Over is 7-0-1 in their last eight games.
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NBA
Tuesday, December 19
Trend Report
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
SACRAMENTO @ PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Sacramento's last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Sacramento
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Sacramento
CLEVELAND @ MILWAUKEE
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Cleveland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games
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