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Sunday 12-24-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Member
- Rep Power
- 8
Norm Hitzges
NFL
DOUBLE PLAY: LA Rams -7 Tennessee
Carolina -10 Tampa Bay
SINGLE PLAYS
Cleveland +6 1/2 Chicago
New England -12 Buffalo
NY Giants +3 1/2 Arizona
Jacksonville -4 San Francisco
Pittsburgh--Houston UNDER 45
Philadelphia -9 Oakland (MONDAY)
COLLEGE BOWLS
DOUBLE PLAYS: Fresno +2 1/2 Houston (SUNDAY)
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero
Camarero - Race 5
Pick 3 (5-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Quiniela / Superfecta / Daily Double 5-6
Claiming $4,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND NO GANADORES A 1,200 DESDE 24 DICIEMBRE 2016. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 121 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Lone Stalker. HOON (IRE) is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * BURNING TIME: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CLASSIC BLAZE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. I'LLLEAVEITWITH YOU: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2
BURNING TIME
3/1
7/2
11
CLASSIC BLAZE
10/1
6/1
7
I'LLLEAVEITWITHYOU
9/5
7/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
11
CLASSIC BLAZE
11
10/1
Front-runner
88
81
75.4
79.6
74.1
6
VERSET LOVE
6
4/1
Front-runner
80
65
60.0
58.4
45.4
4
HIGHLANDSERENADE
4
5/1
Front-runner
87
62
59.0
61.8
49.8
3
HOON (IRE)
3
5/2
Alternator/Stalker
82
62
42.6
63.0
49.0
7
I'LLLEAVEITWITHYOU
7
9/5
Trailer
91
73
48.2
80.0
72.5
10
WARRENSBURG
10
10/1
Trailer
80
81
39.6
63.0
52.0
2
BURNING TIME
2
3/1
Trailer
96
84
12.0
85.6
82.6
5
CRAFTY NOBLE
5
7/2
Trailer
82
82
0.0
0.0
0.0
8
ROTOR
8
10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
79
69
58.8
50.4
31.4
1
PUCHADOR
1
20/1
Alternator/Non-contender
76
69
37.2
49.4
29.4
9
ROAD PARADE
9
10/1
Alternator/Non-contender
79
68
9.4
43.8
28.8
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 6 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 42
FOR NATIVE FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS AND NO GANADORES A 1,300 METROS DESDE 24 MAYO 2017. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLASIFICADOS EN $4,000 Y DEBUTANTES ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 3 MI CARMELITA 10/1
# 10 PRIMAVERA 4/1
# 11 MINI ESTRELLA 7/2
MI CARMELITA looks to be a very strong contender especially at a such a nice price. Lisboa has her trained admirably to break promptly out of the starting gate. A solid 61 avg class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge versus this group of horses. She has a decent distance/surface win record - 7 out of 43. PRIMAVERA - Handler boasts strong win numbers at this distance and surface. Looks respectable to be up near the front end at the first call.
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Gulfstream Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 59
Rating: 4
#4 POWER JAK (ML=3/1)
#2 SALSA RITA (ML=6/1)
POWER JAK - This is a fairly classic handicapping angle. Play a thoroughbred that finished in the place spot in a maiden race last time out but finished well clear of the show horse. Trainer Zerpa moves this one to a lower level to face a lower class field. Look for a good performance given the class advantage. I like to bet on this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a nice outing within the last month. Just see her latest speed rating, 52. That one looks good in this bunch. SALSA RITA - The 52 latest race speed figure looks good on paper. Dropping in class figure points from her Nov 2nd race at Gulfstream Park West. Based on that valuable data, I will give this thoroughbred the advantage. Trying to win for the first time moving from a grass race to the dirt. I think Garoffalo will have her fit and ready for today's race.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 PRAY PRAY PRAY (ML=5/2), #5 HURRICANE ROBERTA (ML=7/2), #6 JUSTAGIRLSNIGHTOUT (ML=9/2),
PRAY PRAY PRAY - In any race of 6 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance affairs of late. Tough for anyone who saw this entrant in her last contest to wager on her in today's event. This filly registered a rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough today. HURRICANE ROBERTA - Doesn't appear to be worth 7/2 in today's event. Pass on her this time. JUSTAGIRLSNIGHTOUT - Don't think this questionable contender is worth 9/2 in this race.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #4 POWER JAK on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland Park
Sunland Park - Race 2
2nd Half Daily Double $1 Grand Slam(Races 2-3-4-5)/.50 Pick 3(Races 2-3-4) $1 Exacta/Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $28,100 • Post: 12:54
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. THE PARTY FACTOR is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * THE PARTY FACTOR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PASSED BY PAUL: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FACE VALUED: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figu re at the distance/surface. BERNIN SENSATION: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
THE PARTY FACTOR
6/1
9/2
3
PASSED BY PAUL
4/1
6/1
1
FACE VALUED
8/1
7/1
7
BERNIN SENSATION
3/1
9/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
4
THE PARTY FACTOR
4
6/1
Front-runner
91
93
90.0
86.8
84.3
1
FACE VALUED
1
8/1
Front-runner
88
89
88.0
85.0
77.5
7
BERNIN SENSATION
7
3/1
Front-runner
91
95
80.4
77.0
69.0
2
CONSUMERCONFIDENCE
2
5/2
Front-runner
98
91
74.9
64.5
57.5
3
PASSED BY PAUL
3
4/1
Alternator/Front-runner
91
94
85.0
86.4
77.9
5
EVOLVE
5
10/1
Alternator/Front-runner
89
81
79.2
67.2
54.7
6
BLUE AZUL
6
7/2
Stalker
90
95
0.0
0.0
0.0
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 2 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $28100 Class Rating: 96
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 4 THE PARTY FACTOR 6/1
# 2 CONSUMERCONFIDENCE 5/2
# 3 PASSED BY PAUL 4/1
THE PARTY FACTOR should be supported as the wager in here. Should compete soundly in the pace contest which bodes well with this group. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 87 Equibase Speed Fig which is one of the best in this group of horses in this race. Is a strong contender based on numbers posted as of late under today's conditions. CONSUMERCONFIDENCE - Has been running soundly lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. He has been running solidly and the speed figures are among the top in this group. PASSED BY PAUL - Always hard to beat Cappellucci and Juarez working together, winning 20 percent of their races. This racer has some longshot angles going for him.
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NFL opening line report: Playoff chases front and center in Week 16
Patrick Everson
“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly.”
Week 16 of the NFL regular season has some key games on tap, but because of how Week 15 is playing out, many sportsbooks aren’t yet posting lines on those matchups. However, thanks to Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu, Everson still gets you a little insight on a quartet of contests with playoff implications.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (no line)
New Orleans lost its first two games of the season, but has only lost twice since then to stand tied with Carolina atop the NFC South. The Saints (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) were massive 16.5-point home favorites against the New York Jets on Sunday and were never covering that number, but got a 31-19 victory.
Defending NFC champion Atlanta still has Week 15 work to do before Bookmaker.eu can set the line on Falcons-Saints. Atlanta (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS), which travels to Tampa Bay for the Monday nighter, just hosted the Saints a week ago, notching a 20-17 home win as a 2.5-point chalk.
“If there are no major injuries Monday evening, and the Falcons win, we’ll look to make the Saints around 4-point chalk for this big divisional matchup,” Cooley said. “The public will continue to play New Orleans, and we know every Joe Bettor and his dog will be on the over.”
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+7)
Los Angeles is looking very much like the real postseason deal heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. The Rams (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS) steamrolled Seattle 42-7 as a 1-point road fave in Week 15 and now have complete control of the NFC West.
Tennessee would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but needs better results than it got in Week 15 to stay in that position. The Titans (8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) lost to San Francisco 25-23 on a last-second field goal, though they cashed as a 2.5-point road pup.
“Marcus Mariota just isn’t playing at the same level he was before the injury earlier this season,” Cooley said. “He’s gutting it out weekly, but he’s a shell of his former shelf, which has caused a drastic downgrade for Tennessee in our ratings. Early action has come on the Titans, dropping the spread a half-point.”
That move put the line at Rams -6.5.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (no line)
Green Bay got Aaron Rodgers back for Week 15, and while he led a valiant late rally at Carolina, he also threw three interceptions. That doomed the Packers (7-7 SU and ATS) to a 31-24 loss catching 3 points on the road, and likely ended their playoff hopes.
Meanwhile, Minnesota had no problem dispatching Cincinnati on Sunday. The Vikings (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) led 24-0 at halftime and cruised to 34-7 home win laying 12.5 points.
This is another line that Bookmaker.eu has put on hold.
“We really have to wait and see what the Packers decide to do with Rodgers,” Cooley said, pointing to the fact that if Atlanta beats Tampa on Monday night, Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention. “The Packers might be home underdogs to this great Vikings squad either way, but are certainly a healthy ‘dog if Brett Hundley is back under center. If the Falcons win Monday, we don’t expect to see Rodgers the rest of the year.”
This NFC North clash is in prime time on Saturday, with an 8:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (no line)
Dallas is clinging to postseason life, but might get a little defibrillation this week, with star running back Ezekiel Elliott returning from his six-game suspension. The Cowboys (8-6 SU and ATS) went off as a 3-point chalk at Oakland on Sunday night and pushed with a 20-17 victory, sealed when Raiders QB Derek Carr fumbled inside the 2-yard line in the final minute.
Seattle is also on the outside looking in for the moment, thanks to that aforementioned beatdown suffered at the hands of the Rams. The Seahawks (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS) could still reach the playoffs, but may need some help getting there after that dismal 42-7 loss to L.A. as a 1-point home ‘dog.
With the Cowboys playing Sunday night, Bookmaker.eu will wait to post this number until Monday.
“Dallas will be a short favorite in this one when we open. Both teams are trying to hang around for a playoff spot, but neither are impressing too greatly,” Cooley said. “The Seahawks were badly exposed Sunday, but we will certainly expect their best effort here. We’ll need some sharp action on the underdog to offset the square money that will come on the Cowboys.”
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NFL
Dunkel
Week 16
Sunday, December 24
Detroit @ Cincinnati
Game 105-106
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
133.405
Cincinnati
130.337
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 3
38
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 5 1/2
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+5 1/2); Under
LA Chargers @ NY Jets
Game 107-108
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
132.675
NY Jets
129.128
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Chargers
by 3 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 7
42
Dunkel Pick:
NY Jets
(+7); Over
LA Rams @ Tennessee
Game 109-110
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
LA Rams
137.422
Tennessee
134.612
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 3
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 7
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+7); Over
Cleveland @ Chicago
Game 111-112
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
124.002
Chicago
128.182
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 4
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 7
39
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+7); Under
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Game 113-114
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
124.154
Carolina
141.229
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Carolina
by 17
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Carolina
by 10
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Carolina
(-10); Under
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Game 115-116
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
129.873
New Orleans
139.484
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 9 1/2
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 5 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-5 1/2); Over
Denver @ Washington
Game 117-118
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Denver
126.523
Washington
133.498
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 7
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under
Miami @ Kansas City
Game 119-120
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Miami
124.852
Kansas City
137.912
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 13
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Over
Buffalo @ New England
Game 121-122
December 24, 2017 @ 1:00 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
129.874
New England
138.256
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 8 1/2
45
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 13
47
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+13); Under
Jacksonville @ San Francisco
Game 123-124
December 24, 2017 @ 4:05 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Jacksonville
131.458
San Francisco
130.022
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 5 1/2
42
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+5 1/2); Over
NY Giants @ Arizona
Game 125-126
December 24, 2017 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
128.515
Arizona
129.422
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 1
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
39 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+4 1/2); Over
Seattle @ Dallas
Game 127-128
December 24, 2017 @ 4:25 pm
Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
130.563
Dallas
133.109
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Dallas
by 2 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 5
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(+5); Under
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NFL
Long Sheet
Week 16
Sunday, December 24
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DETROIT (8 - 6) at CINCINNATI (5 - 9) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LA CHARGERS (7 - 7) at NY JETS (5 - 9) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
LA CHARGERS is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
LA CHARGERS is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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LA RAMS (10 - 4) at TENNESSEE (8 - 6) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 184-229 ATS (-67.9 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 184-229 ATS (-67.9 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 84-118 ATS (-45.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 143-181 ATS (-56.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 62-94 ATS (-41.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
LA RAMS is 68-97 ATS (-38.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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CLEVELAND (0 - 14) at CHICAGO (4 - 10) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses this season.
CHICAGO is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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TAMPA BAY (4 - 10) at CAROLINA (10 - 4) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
TAMPA BAY is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CAROLINA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 58-35 ATS (+19.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 83-49 ATS (+29.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 56-28 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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ATLANTA (9 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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DENVER (5 - 9) at WASHINGTON (6 - 8) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points this season.
DENVER is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 61-94 ATS (-42.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 86-116 ATS (-41.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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MIAMI (6 - 8) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 6) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 42-17 ATS (+23.3 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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BUFFALO (8 - 6) at NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) - 12/24/2017, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 25-8 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 24-8 ATS (+15.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 61-37 ATS (+20.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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JACKSONVILLE (10 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 10) - 12/24/2017, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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NY GIANTS (2 - 12) at ARIZONA (6 - 8) - 12/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 54-33 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
ARIZONA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
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SEATTLE (8 - 6) at DALLAS (8 - 6) - 12/24/2017, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 67-39 ATS (+24.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 38-60 ATS (-28.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NFL
Week 16
Sunday's games
Lions (8-6) @ Bengals (5-9)— Detroit needs two wins and two Falcon losses to make playoffs. Lions won five of last seven games, are 5-2 on road, 2-0-1 as road faves, winning by 14-7-13-3-3 points- they were -5 in turnovers in their two road losses, at Saints/Ravens. Cincy lost last three games, outscored 67-14 last two weeks; looks like Marvin Lewis is a lame-duck coach. Bengals are 3-4 at home this season, 1-0 as a home underdog. Bengals won last five series games, four of which were in Detroit; Lions’ last series win was in 1992. AFC North home underdogs are 1-3 vs spread outside the division; NFC North favorites are 10-4, 3-1 on road. Over is 7-3 in Lions’ last ten games, 3-0-1 in Bengals’ last four home games. In their last nine games, Bengals have run 19.6 fewer plays per game than their opponent.
Chargers (7-7) @ Jets (5-9)— Chargers are still alive for playoffs, but they need two wins and help; Bolts won four of last five games, are 3-4 on road, 1-1 as road favorites- they beat Giants 27-22 on this field in Week 6. Jets lost seven of last nine games; they’re 4-3 at home, 5-2 as home underdogs, with home losses by 7-5-8 points. Petty is now 1-4 as an NFL starter, scoring 12.8 pts/game. Jets converted 8-28 on 3rd down in last two gamesChargers won four of last six series games, three of last four played here. AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 3-5-1 vs spread; AFC East home underdogs are 4-3-1. Eight of last nine Charger games stayed under total; over is 3-1 in Jets’ last four games. Chargers are 2-7 if they allow 19+ points, 5-0 when they allow less than 19. Jets scored 19+ in six of their last eight games.
Rams (10-4) @ Titans (8-6)— Tennessee is in 3-way tie for AFC West Cards; they won last five home games, are 0-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, all on road. Six of their last eight games were decided by 5 or less points. Titans have only two takeaways (-8) in their last five games. Rams won seven of last nine games, can clinch NFC West with a win here; LA is 6-1 in true road games, 2-1 as road favorites- they scored nine TD’s on 25 drives in last two games, but are just 17 of last 59 on 3rd down in their last five games. Rams are 7-5 in this series, beating Titans 23-16 in Super Bowl XXXIV; they’re 1-2 vs Titans since then, are 0-2 in Nashville. Last three Ram games went over the total; under is 3-1 in last four Tennessee tilts.
Browns (0-14) @ Bears (4-10)— Cleveland is 1-29 the last two years; they could win a game and still get the #1 pick in April’s draft. Browns are 3-11 vs spread this year, 1-4 as road underdogs, with road losses by 14-3-16-14-14-9 points. Cleveland is -12 in turnovers the last five games, turning ball over 13 times. That said, you want to lay a TD with the Bears? Chicago lost six of last seven games; they’re 0-2 as favorites this year, 2-5 at home, beating Steelers by 6 in OT, Carolina by 14, when defense scored both TD’s. Chicago is 3-1 against the Browns, winning 27-21/30-6 in two games played here. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 6-5-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 7-3. Four of Browns’ last five road games went over total.
Buccaneers (4-9) @ Panthers (10-4)— Carolina won six of its last seven games; they’re 5-2 at home, 3-3 as home favorites; they’re +8 in turnovers the last five games. Short week for Bucs after Monday night’s loss to Atlanta. Tampa Bay lost nine of its last ten games; they’re 1-6 on road, 1-3-1 as road underdogs, with losses by 17-5-3-20-14-6 points. This series has been swept the last eight years; Carolina (+1.5) won first meeting 17-3 in Tampa in Week 8, they were 8-17 on 3rd down, had 3 takeaways (+2). Bucs lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 21-2-28 points. Home teams are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Six of Bucs’ seven road games went over the total, as did the last five Carolina games.
Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (10-4)— Falcons (-2.5) beat Saints 20-17 at home two weeks ago, despite going -2 in turnovers; they’re 5-2 in last seven games vs New Orleans, winning 2 of last 3 games in Superdome. Series has been swept the last four years. Atlanta has short week after Monday’s win; they won five of last six games, are 4-2 on road, 1-2 as road underdogs. 10 of their 14 games were decided by 7 or less points. Saints won their last six home games, are 3-3 as home faves; they scored 30+ points in five of last seven games. NO won field position battle in 10 of their last 12 games. Home teams are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Nine of last 12 Atlanta games stayed under total; four of last six Saint games went over.
Broncos (5-9) @ Redskins (6-8)— Denver won its last two games after an 0-8 skid; Broncos are 1-6 on road, 0-3 as road dogs, with road losses by 10-21-10-28-7-26 points- they’re minus-15 in turnovers. Denver allowed one TD on 19 drives in their last two games. Washington lost six of last nine games; they’re 4-3 at home, 2-1 as home favorites. Redskins lost field position battle in nine of last ten games. Washington is 3 of its last 21 on 3rd down; they gained total of 419 yards in their last two games. Denver won four of last six series games; they’re 2-3 in five visits here. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread; AFC West road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last five Denver games stayed under total, as did three of last four Redskin games.
Dolphins (6-8) @ Chiefs (8-6)— Chiefs lead AFC West by a game; they won last two games after a 1-6 skid. KC scored nine TD’s on 29 drives in their last three games, since OC Nagy took over play-calling duties. Chiefs are 5-2 at home, 4-2 as home favorites- they’re +6 in turnovers in last two games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games; they’re 2-5 in true road games, losing last four by combined score of 144-54. In their last three games, Fish are 6-40 on 3rd down. Miami won three of last four series games, winning 38-31/31-3 in last two visits here. AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-9 vs spread; AFC East road underdogs are 7-5. Five of last six KC games stayed under the total; over is 7-0-1 in Miami’s last eight games.
Bills (8-6) @ Patriots (11-3)— Patriots won 23-3 (-9) in Buffalo three weeks ago, outgaining Bills 435-268; they’re 30-4 in last 34 series games, but Buffalo won two of last three visits here. Bills are in 3-way tie for the two AFC Wild Cards; they’re 2-4 on road, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 6-4-13-30 points, with wins in Atlanta/KC. Patriots can clinch #1 seed in AFC with win here; they won last three home games by average score of 26-12. NE covered seven of its last eight games; they’re +8 in turnovers in its last six games. Home teams are 7-1-1 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this season. Three of last four Buffalo games stayed under total; under is 3-1-1 in last five New England games. Patriots had 3 or fewer penalties in four of their last six games.
Jaguars (10-4) @ 49ers (4-10)— Jaguars clinch division and home game in playoffs with a win here; they’ve won seven of last eight games, covering last three. Jags are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as road favorites; they’re +8 in turnovers in last five games. 49ers are 4-1 since an 0-9 start; Garoppolo is first QB since Roethlisberger to win his first five NFL starts. In their last three games, 49ers scored three TD’s, tried 15 FG’s; they need to improve in red zone. Teams split four meetings; Jaguars lost 20-3 here in ’09, then again in London four years ago. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-5-1. Three of Jaguars’ last four games went over the total; under is 5-2 in 49ers’ last seven games.
Giants (2-12) @ Cardinals (6-8)— Arizona didn’t score a TD on 24 drives in its last two games, they switch to Stanton (9-6 as NFL starter) at QB here. Cardinals lost four of last six games, are 4-3 at home despite being underdog in six of seven games. Giants had ball in red zone to beat Eagles LW, were tied in 4th quarter with Dallas week before, so they’re still competing. Big Blue is 1-6 on road, 4-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Teams split their last eight meetings; Giants won 37-29/31-27 in last two visits here, with last one in 2011. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 5-3 vs spread; NFC East road underdogs are 9-4. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total; under is 9-4 in Arizona’s last thirteen games.
Seahawks (8-6) @ Cowboys (8-6)— Elimination game in NFC playoff chase; Cowboys get Elliott back from suspension here. Dallas won its last three games, allowing 13.7 ppg; they’re 3-4 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Cowboys ran ball for 143.3 ypg the last three weeks. Seahawks got crushed 42-7 at home LW; they’re 3-4 in last seven games, 4-3 on road, 1-3 as road underdogs- they didn’t score a first half point in last two games. Dallas won four of last six series games; Seattle won last meeting 13-12 here two years ago. Seahawks are 3-6 overall in Dallas. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread; NFC West road underdogs are 5-9. Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under total; under is 5-2 in Seattle road games.
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NFL
Week 16
Trend Report
Sunday, December 24
CLEVELAND @ CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games at home
Chicago is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home
MIAMI @ KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
LA RAMS @ TENNESSEE
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Rams's last 7 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing LA Rams
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina's last 5 games
Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing New England
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New England is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing Buffalo
LA CHARGERS @ NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
NY Jets is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games at home
DENVER @ WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Washington
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing Denver
Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Denver
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN FRANCISCO
Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games
NY GIANTS @ ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games when playing at home against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games when playing NY Giants
SEATTLE @ DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
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Essential Week 16 betting tidbits and odds for NFL Saturday and Sunday
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13.5, 41)
The Indy offense is in the toilet. The Colts are averaging just 10 points per game over their last three contests – albeit against the No. 1, No. 3 and No. 23 defenses in the league.
The Ravens have gone the other direction. Baltimore was averaging just 18.6 points per game after Week 7 and is averaging 36.3 over its last three contests.
LINE HISTORY: The Ravens opened just under the two-touchdown mark at -13.5 and that’s where the line has stayed put. The total opened at 41.5 and is coming down at most shops some as low as 40.5.
TRENDS:
*The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
*The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The under is 6-0 in the Colts’ last six games.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (+9, 40.5)
Aaron Rodgers' cameo season comeback is over. The Packers are eliminated from the playoffs and won’t risk further injury to their franchise quarterback.
For the Pack to have any shot of toppling the Minnesota Vikings, they’ll need to do a better job inside their 20-yard line on defense. Green Bay’s opponents score touchdowns 69 percent of the time once inside the red zone – a mark that puts GB second to last in the league.
LINE HISTORY: The line opened with the Vikings favored by nine points and there are a few locations coming down to 8.5. The total opened as high as 41.5 and has come down to as low as 40.5.
TRENDS:
*The Vikings are 41-16 ATS in their last 57 games.
*The over is 21-6 in the Packers’ last 27 games.
Detroit Lions at Cincinnati Bengals (+3.5, 44)
Weird stories have been coming out of the Bengals’ camp all season. A report surfaced before Cincy’s game last Sunday against the Vikings that head coach Marvin Lewis would step aside at the end of the year to pursue other interests.
Lewis, who’s been the HC for 15 years and never led the Bengals to a playoff win, is on the last year of his deal – so the announcement would really just be a face-saving move for his side.
With or without Lewis – the Bengals have to fix their offense. They scored in the last six minutes of the fourth quarter to avoid being shut out by the Vikings last weekend. QB Andy Dalton has completed 25 of his 51 pass attempts for 254 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions over his last two games.
LINE HISTORY: The spread opened at Bengals +4, went to +5 and is now down as low as +3.5. There are still a number of sportsbooks dealing Lions -4.
TRENDS:
*The Lions are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with losing records.
*The under is 15-7 in the Bengals’ last 22 games.
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38)
Betting against the Browns is good business for bettors. Cleveland is 4-42 straight up and 12-33-1 against the spread over the last three seasons. An astute gambler would be up $2100 if he/she had faded the Browns and bet $100 on their opponents to cover in each game.
LINE HISTORY: Most shops opened with the Bears as 6.5-ponit faves but there were a few that went with a touchdown spread. Every location is now dealing Browns +6.5. The total is hanging around 38.
TRENDS:
*The Bears are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
*The under is 4-0 in the Bears last four games.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)
The Falcons held the Saints to just 50 yards rushing on 15 carries when the two NFC South foes met earlier this month. That was quite a feat considering the Saints own the fifth ranked rushing attack at 135.1 yards per game.
New Orleans dynamic running back Alvin Kamara will be fully fit in this contest – and that could make a big difference. The Saints are No. 1 in yards gained after the catch (2178) in large part because of damage Kamara does in the open field. He’s second on the team in receptions at 68.
LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point favorites and the line has crept up to 6. The total is staying put around 52.5.
TRENDS:
*The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
*The over is 15-5-1 in the Saints’ last 21 home games.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 43.5)
The flu bug is running through the Chiefs. TE Travis Kelce, OL Justin Houston and LT Eric Fisher all missed days of practice this week because they were filling ill.
LINE HISTORY: The books opened with the Phins getting 10 points and the spread is now up to 11 points. The total has dropped from the opening number of 45 to 43.5 at some shops.
TRENDS:
*The over is 8-1 in the Dolphins’ last nine games.
*The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11.5, 47.5)
The Bills would like nothing more than to keep their hopes alive by beating the Patriots at New England. Buffalo is playing off like the game doesn’t have anything extra but Rob Gronkowski’s hit on Bills CB Tre’Davious White angered a lot people.
Gronk was suspended one game – which might have been on the light side. Buffalo fans probably wished the All-Pro tight end was suspended for this game. Gronk has made a meal out of his matchups against the Bills over the years. He’s collected 11 touchdown grabs in 12 career games with 61 catches for 960 yards.
LINE HISTORY: The Pats opened as 12.5-point faves and while there are some books still dealing at that number – a few others have dropped it down to 11.5.
TRENDS:
*The road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 matchups between these two teams.
*The under is 8-2 in the Bills’ last 10 games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-10, 46.5)
There haven’t been a lot of points put up on the board in recent history with these two teams. The Panthers won 17-3 against TB earlier this season and the average total points scored in the last eight meetings is just 36.9. That’s almost 10 points below the total listed in this game.
LINE HISTORY: The Panthers opened as 10-point chalk and there hasn’t been a lot of movement although a few books do have the line up to 10.5 now. The total is bouncing between 47 and 46.5.
TRENDS:
*The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
*The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams.
Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47)
Special teams don’t get a lot of attention on the ESPN talking heads shows because no one really wants to talk about kicking. But one of the many reasons the Los Angeles Rams are so damn good this season is because of special teams. The unit sits second in the league according to Football Outsiders special teams rankings.
LA will have trouble holding the ranking over of the last two weeks of the season after the club lost its Pro Bowl kicker, Greg Zuerlein, to a back injury. The Rams signed Sam Ficken – a guy who’s never attempted a kick in the pros and last hit one through the uprights when he was at Penn State in 2014 – to be Zuerlein’s replacement.
LINE HISTORY: The spread has jumped back and forth between 6.5 and 7 with juice on either side. The total opened at 48.5 and can be found as low as 46.5 now.
TRENDS:
*The Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
*The Titans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets (+6.5, 42.5)
Bolts fans were given a scare at the tail end of last weekend’s loss to the Chiefs when Pro Bowl receiver Keenan Allen was carted off the field. Head coach Anthony Lynn said after the game it was only a precautionary measure and it looks to be true. Allen is not on the Chargers’ injury report this week.
Allen is the key to LA’s passing game. He leads the team in receptions and has 39 more grabs than the next closest teammate.
LINE HISTORY: This line has bounced between 6.5 and 7 all week although just about all locations are at 6.5 as we enter the weekend. The total opened at 42.5 and has been nudged up to 43.
TRENDS:
*The Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.
*The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’ last four games.
Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 40.5)
The Broncos’ defense is back on track after strong showings in the last two weeks. Denver shutout the Jets and gave up only 13 points to the Colts. The Broncos’ are allowing an average of just 213.7 yards over their last three games. The Redskins are dead last in yards gained per game over their last three – with an average of just 233.
LINE HISTORY: There were a few books that opened with the ‘Skins favored by four points but there are only 3.5s on the board now.
TRENDS:
*The Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games.
*The over is 20-7 in the Redskins’ last 27 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers (+4.5, 42)
The Jags will have starting running back Leonard Fournette back in the fold this weekend after he missed last weekend’s game against the Texans because of a quad injury. Fournette is having an explosive rookie season but the Jags are still 3-0 straight up and against the spread while outscoring 95-14 in games without Fournette this year.
Jacksonville is the league’s top rushing attack but the Niners are allowing just 80.7 yards per game on the ground over their last three contests.
LINE HISTORY: This game opened with the Jags favored by as much as 5.5 points but just about all shops are now at 4.5 for the spread. The total can be found at 42 and 42.5.
TRENDS:
*The under is 1-4 in the Niners’ last five home games.
*The Jags are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-3, 40)
The Cards are going back to Drew Stanton as their starting quarterback – a move that surprised everyone including Stanton himself.
“I think the biggest thing is we’re so close to winning that football game (last weekend against the Redskins), and maybe we’re not having this discussion at that point. But that’s not for me to say,” Stanton told reporters after head coach Bruce Arians announces the QB switch.
Most people assumed Stanton was done for the year after spraining his knee in Week 10. Arians admitted Stanton will probably be playing in a lot of pain this weekend.
LINE HISTORY: The Cards opened up as 4.5-point favorites but the spread has dropped to a field goal spread.
TRENDS:
*The Cards are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games.
*The under is 4-1 in the Giants’ last five games.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47)
The Seahawks have been abused the last two weeks by star running back and they’re going to see another one this weekend in Dallas. Seattle allowed 244 yards on the ground against the Rams last weekend and 156 the week prior against the Jaguars.
The Cowboys will welcome Ezekiel Elliott back this weekend after he missed the last six games due to a league suspension. Elliott rushed for 390 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games – all Dallas wins – before the suspension.
LINE HISTORY: Most books opened with the ‘Boys favored by 4 points and the number crept up to 5 and 5.5 at some shops late in the week.
TRENDS:
*The under is 6-1 in the Cowboys’ last seven games overall.
*The Seahawks are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games.
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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16
Monty Andrews
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44)
Dolphins' turnover troubles vs. Chiefs' impressive ball security
The Kansas City Chiefs have apparently fixed what was plaguing them in recent weeks and are back in control of their own destiny atop the AFC West division as they entertain the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. The Chiefs restored order in the West with critical home victories over the division-rival Oakland Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, and will look to exploit a significant edge in the turnover department to send the visiting Dolphins to their second consecutive defeat.
The Chiefs looked nothing like the team that inexplicably dropped six of seven games following a 5-0 start, improving to 4-1 against divisional opponents with double-digit triumphs over the Raiders and Chargers. Kansas City controlled the ball security battle in both games, forcing Los Angeles and Oakland into a whopping seven turnovers while committing just one itself. That gives the Chiefs a plus-12 turnover differential for the season, behind only the Baltimore Ravens and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Things haven't been nearly as good for the Dolphins in the turnover category, which is one of the main reasons why Miami is already looking to next season. Miami comes into this one with an ugly minus-11 turnover differential, the third-worst mark in the league; the two team behind them, Cleveland and Denver, are a combined 5-23 in the standings. Miami ranks second-last in the NFL with 20 interceptions (thanks, Jay Cutler), and should add to that total against a sensational Kansas City defense.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, OFF)
Buccaneers' FG foibles vs. Panthers' elite kicking game
Carolina is almost assured a playoff berth heading into Sunday afternoon's encounter with the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers - but it's the NFC South title that the Panthers desperately want. They come into this one tied with the New Orleans Saints at 10-4, though New Orleans owns the tiebreaker between the teams. The Panthers look to extend their winning streak to three, and they're well positioned to do that against the woeful Bucs - particularly with such a sizeable edge in the kicking department.
It could have been a much different outcome for Tampa Bay this season had the Buccaneers fared better in close games; they're just 2-6 in contests decided by six or fewer points, and they can almost certainly blame their woeful kicking game for at least some of those narrow defeats. Tampa Bay has converted just 20-of-28 field goal chances on the season, good for a 71.4-percent success rate that ranks tied for 30th league-wide. That includes an ugly 7-of-14 rate on field goals of 40+ yards
With so many games decided by just a handful of points, having a top-flight kicking game is almost-certain path to success - and the Panthers are as good as it gets in that category. Carolina has connected on 25 of its 26 field goal opportunities so far in 2017, good for an NFL-leading 96.2-percent success rate. With its only miss coming from 50+ yards, Carolina has been automatic from 48 yards and in - and even if Tampa Bay somehow makes this one competitive Sunday, the Panthers will be hard to beat.
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47)
Seahawks' frequent flags vs. Cowboys' sensational discipline
Sunday's encounter between the Seattle Seahawks and the host Dallas Cowboys could very well decide which team gets into the playoffs, and which team spends the postseason on the couch. Both teams come in at 8-6 and are very much in the hunt for a wild-card spot, though they're headed in opposite directions - Seattle fell 42-7 at home to the Rams on Sunday, while the Cowboys are rolling with three straight wins. And if this one comes down to penalties, the Cowboys are in terrific shape.
Seattle can point to several factors that have contributed to its recent struggles - and for losing its grip on the NFC West after years of dominance. But a lack of discipline is at or near the top of the list; the Seahawks have racked up a league-high 129 penalty flags through 14 games, and their 1,100 penalty yards are 136 more than the runner-up Kansas City Chiefs. The Seahawks had "just" nine penalties for 60 yards vs. the Rams, but drew just three flags for 25 yards from Los Angeles.
Dallas has been far more disciplined on the season, picking up just 83 penalties for 800 total yards. And the Cowboys have been even better in that regard during their critical three-game winning streak, getting flagged three times for 25 yards vs. Washington while drawing eight flags but only losing 51 yards against the Giants. This past weekend's 100-penalty-yard debacle against Oakland aside, Dallas has kept its composure this season - and that should work in its favor against undisciplined Seattle.
Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47.5)
Raiders' third down problems vs. Eagles' drive-lengthening prowess
No Carson Wentz proved to be no problem at all for the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend, as they got past the division-rival Giants to secure a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. But there's still one important thing for the Eagles to play for: home-field advantage throughout the conference portion of the playoffs, which would happen with a win or a Minnesota Vikings loss. And Philly has a significant edge against the visiting Raiders when it comes to third-down prowess.
Expectations were high for the Oakland defense coming into the season, but the Raiders have disappointed in several areas. In addition to ranking last in the entire NFL in interceptions (four), Oakland is allowing teams to extend drives or score on 42.6 of their third-down opportunities - good for 27th out of 32 teams. It's no wonder, then, that the Raiders average just 28:39 time of possession per game, ahead of only seven other teams and more than two minutes less than last year's average.
The Eagles' offense is a sight to behold, tied with the high-powered Rams for the most points in the league through 15 weeks. And Philadelphia's work on third down has a lot to do with that - the Eagles have made good on 45.4 percent of their third downs this season, behind only the Atlanta Falcons. Add in the fact that Philadelphia has also converted 15-of-22 fourth-down chances, and it could be a long game for an already beleaguered Oakland defensive unit.
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NFL
Week 16
Sunday NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Falcons at Saints
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints (-6, 52.5)
The Atlanta Falcons control their own destiny in the race for the NFC South title after holding off the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday for their fifth win in the last six games. The New Orleans Saints, who host the Falcons on Sunday, are a game up on Atlanta in the division and will clinch a playoff berth while moving one step closer to an NFC South title with a victory.
The NFC South could end up sending three teams to the playoffs along with the Carolina Panthers, and the Falcons brought themselves into this position by figuring out how to win tight games in the last two weeks, including a 20-17 triumph at home over New Orleans in Week 14. "We are right where we need to be at this time of the season," Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan told reporters. "Two games to go in the regular season, and we have to find a way to get back to work this week, try to improve and make sure that we play the best we are capable of playing (Sunday) to try and get a win." The Saints followed that loss to the Falcons with a 31-19 triumph over the New York Jets last week and are trying not to assign extra importance to this week's meeting. "There is not really emotion," wide receiver Michael Thomas told reporters. "There are going to be games that are probably more important than others, but at the end of the day they're all pretty much important."
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (-2) - Saints (-4) + home field (-3) = Saints -5.
LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point home dogs at most shops, money coming in on New Orleans bumped up slightly to -6. The total hit the betting board at 52.5 and remains at that number heading into the weekend.
WEATHER REPORT: Dome
INJURY REPORT:
Falcons - RB Tevin Coleman (Probable, Concussion), WR Julio Jones (Probable, Ankle), WR Mohamed Sanu (Probable, Knee), G Andy Levitre (Questionable, Tricep), LB Sean Weatherspoon (Questionable, Illness).
Saints - G Larry Warford (Probable, Concussion), WR Ted Ginn (Probable, Ribs), TE Garrett Griffin (Questionable, Foot), DB Justin Harden (Questionable, Foot), TE Josh Hill (Questionable, Shoulder), C Senio Kelemete (Questionable, Knee), OT Andrus Peat (Questionable, Groin), DE Trey Hendrickson (Out, Ankle), TE Michael Hoomanawanui (Out, Concussion), S Kenny Vaccaro (I-R, Wrist), LB A.J. Klein (I-R, Groin).
ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS, 5-9 O/U): Atlanta leaned on its rushing attack in a 24-21 win over the Buccaneers on Monday as Devonta Freeman ran for a season-high 126 yards and a touchdown. Freeman rushed for 91 yards and a score in the win over the Saints, helping to make up for a three-interception performance from Ryan. The reigning NFL MVP is up to 3,490 yards and 18 TDs on the season but is already at 11 interceptions - four more than his total from last season - and was left off the Pro Bowl rosters announced on Tuesday.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 O/U): New Orleans became the first team in 42 years to have two running backs make the Pro Bowl when Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara were announced as two of the team's six representatives. The two are on pace to become the first duo in NFL history to each go over 1,500 yards from scrimmage and are already at a combined 2,756 yards from scrimmage and 23 touchdowns. Neither back managed 100 yards from scrimmage in the Week 14 loss to the Falcons, and Kamara totaled just 27 yards on four touches before leaving the contest with a concussion.
TRENDS:
* Falcons are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
* Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Falcons last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Over is 6-0-1 in Saints last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Underdog is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the home favorite Saints at a rate of 55 percent and the Over is getting 70 percent of the totals action.
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NFL
Week 16
Sunday NFL Betting Preview and Odds: Seahawks at Cowboys
Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-5, 47)
Ezekiel Elliott is back from a six-game suspension as the Dallas Cowboys look to remain in the playoff hunt when they host the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The star running back was disciplined for an alleged domestic violence incident after racking up 783 rushing yards through the first eight contests of the season.
Elliott returns at a time when the Cowboys could be eliminated from the NFC wild-card race - a loss to Seattle and a victory by Atlanta would end the playoff pursuit. Elliott figures to provide a boost as he is well-rested and not experiencing the bumps and bruises most NFL running backs feel in late December. "He's capable of doing anything we'd ask him to do at the running back position," Dallas coach Jason Garrett told reporters. "We'll work through this week and see what he's able to do in this game plan." The Seahawks are aiming to bounce back from the 42-7 beating they suffered against the Los Angeles Rams and are in the same predicament as the Cowboys - a loss on Sunday combined with a victory by Atlanta would seal their fate.
TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.
POWER RANKINGS: Seahawks (-1) - Cowboys (-1) + home field (-3) = Cowboys -3.
LINE HISTORY: The Saints opened as 5.5-point home dogs at most shops, money coming in on New Orleans bumped up slightly to -6. The total hit the betting board at 52.5 and remains at that number heading into the weekend.
WEATHER REPORT: Dome
INJURY REPORT:
Seahawks - DE Michael Bennett (Probable, Knee), TE Jimmy Graham (Probable, Knee), LB K.J. Wright (Probable, Concussion), LB Bobby Wagner (Probable, Hamstring), S Bradley McDougald (Questionable, Knee), DT Nazair Jones (Questionable, Ankle), CB Justin Coleman (Questionable, Chest), TE Nick Vannett (Questionable, Shoulder), LB D.J. Alexander (Questionable, Concussion), CB Deshawn Shead (Questionable, Knee), RB Chris Carson (Out, Knee), S Kam Chancellor (I-R, Neck), G Day Aboushi (I-R, Shoulder).
Cowboys - LB Justin Durant (Probable, Concussion), LB Anthony Hitchens (Probable, Knee), DE Demarcus Lawrence (Probable, Back), DT Richard Ash (Questionable, Shoulder), OT Le'El Collins (Questionable, Back), DE Benson Mayowa (Questionable, Back), DT Maliek Collins (Questionable, Foot), LB Sean Lee (Questionable, Hamstring), CB Orlando Scandrick (Questionable, Back), WR Brice Butler (Questionable, Foot), OT Tyron Smith (Doubtful, Knee), DL David Irving (Out, Concussion).
ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Seattle has allowed 72 points while losing its last two games, and the horrific showing against the Rams placed the team in a rare must-win situation regarding both its NFC West and wild-card aspirations. "If anybody likes adversity, this football team does, in the sense that we can handle adversity," quarterback Russell Wilson, who has thrown 30 touchdown passes, told reporters. "We can handle the circumstances that we are in. Reality is, we can't determine what everybody else does. All we can do is what we can control, and that's playing great football." The defense has been ravaged by injuries and the hope is that Pro Bowl middle linebacker Bobby Wagner (hamstring) and outside linebacker K.J. Wright (concussion) will be close to full strength.
ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 6-8 O/U): Elliott had 26 or more carries in each of his final four games prior to the suspension, and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan indicated he plans another heavy load for the 22-year-old. Elliott's presence should help second-year quarterback Dak Prescott (2,964 yards, 21 touchdowns), who has thrown 11 interceptions this season after being picked off just four times last year. Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence is tied for third in the NFL with 13.5 sacks, while star linebacker Sean Lee has recorded 28 tackles and one interception over the last two games after returning from a hamstring injury.
TRENDS:
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 4-1 in Seahawks last 5 road games.
* Under is 6-1 in Cowboys last 7 games overall.
* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road dog Seahawks at a rate of 53 percent and the Over is getting 52 percent of the totals action.
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