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Thursday 12-28-17 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
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Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct
RACE #7 - AQUEDUCT - 4:41 PM EASTERN POST
The East View Stakes
9.0 FURLONGS DIRT TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE
#6 ENGLISH SOUL
#1 CRYINTHEMOONLIGHT
#5 CAUSE WE ARE LOYAL
#8 PURELY LUCKY
For your information folks ... East View was the name of the Westchester estate of James Butler, the founder of Empire City racetrack, which was located on the current site of Yonkers Raceway. Here in the 80th renewal of "The View," #6 ENGLISH SOUL is both the speed and pace profile leader in this field, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her four career starts to date, hitting the board in three, winning twice, including a BLISTERING, 14-length, "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her 3rd race back. #1 CRYINTHEMOONLIGHT comes off a maiden-breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start, which was just the 2nd race of her young career to date.
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct
Aqueduct - Race 4
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) Grand Slam Races (4-7), Double Wagers
Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 1:54P
(UP TO $7,920 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES IN 2017 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE IN 2017 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BOBBY ON FLEEK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. BLUE BELT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CURTIS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. PROFESSOR SNAPE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5
BOBBY ON FLEEK
8/5
9/2
2
BLUE BELT
6/1
6/1
1
CURTIS
9/5
7/1
3
PROFESSOR SNAPE
5/1
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
2
BLUE BELT
2
6/1
Front-runner
94
93
110.0
84.0
79.5
3
PROFESSOR SNAPE
3
5/1
Front-runner
90
89
92.8
86.0
76.5
1
CURTIS
1
9/5
Front-runner
99
100
82.4
77.2
71.7
5
BOBBY ON FLEEK
5
8/5
Stalker
96
100
99.2
90.2
88.2
6
MACHO MIAH
6
8/1
Alternator/Stalker
92
92
75.8
81.6
71.6
4
OUTRAGEOUS BET
4
20/1
Alternator/Stalker
92
91
47.4
68.3
58.3
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 9 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 91
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28, 2017 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 4 GRAY RANSOM 15/1
# 7 RIPPIN RIDE 5/1
# 5 UNITAS 7/2
GRAY RANSOM has a very good shot to take this race and is a decent value bet given the line. Lately Husak has provided bettors with a very good winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. With Rodriguez in the saddle guiding him, this gelding will most likely be able to break out quickly for this event. With a very good 79 speed rating last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. RIPPIN RIDE - He has garnered respectable figures under today's conditions and will almost certainly fare well against this field. He has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the most competitive in this group of horses in this race. UNITAS - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this lot. Is tough not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 78 avg - of late.
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Handicapped by Valuline at Fair Grounds
Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
Fair Grounds, Race 5 (Thursday December 28, 2017)
BATTLE COLORS
(For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)
FG-5 6f DIRT Eight Horses
"A" CLM 15,000 3YUP $17,000
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL
5 BATTLE COLORS 9/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
8 TIZ TOO MUCH 8/1 22% 7/2
1 DORFMAN 6/1 14% 6/1
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Fair Grounds - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,000 Class Rating: 59
Rating: 4
#2 STAR ROCKET (ML=2/1)
STAR ROCKET - Was in a $10,000 Maiden Claiming race at Fair Grounds last time out. That affair had a class number of 69 and he is moving down today. A certain serious competitor. Aboard this horse on December 8th and Beschizza is right back in the irons this time around. Duhon brings him right back. I advocate you stick with this live colt.
Vulnerable Contenders: #6 I DON'T FLY COACH (ML=7/2), #4 ARNAUD (ML=4/1), #3 TWO DATE (ML=9/2),
I DON'T FLY COACH - Hasn't been close to winning at all of late. ARNAUD - Speed ratings tell a tale of lessening condition. TWO DATE - I'm always uncertain about any thoroughbred that earns his biggest speed fig on an 'off' track.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#2 STAR ROCKET is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park
Gulfstream Park - Race 1
$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 1-2-3) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Optional Claiming $50,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $51,000 • Post: 12:35
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).
Contenders
Race Analysis
P#
Horse
Morn
Line
Accept
Odds
Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DUCHESS OF DUKE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FAITH N HOPE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SHAR RAN: Horse's win percentage a t today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SHE TAKES HEART: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse rank s in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4
DUCHESS OF DUKE
5/2
9/2
2
FAITH N HOPE
10/1
6/1
1
SHAR RAN
6/1
7/1
5
SHE TAKES HEART
9/2
8/1
P#
Horse (In Running Style Order)
Post
Morn
Line
Running Style
Good
Class
Good
Speed
Early Figure
Finish Figure
Platinum
Figure
6
FLORIDA FABULOUS
6
2/1
Front-runner
85
95
112.8
68.3
61.3
3
DANESSA AGAIN
3
5/1
Front-runner
82
89
87.0
74.2
64.7
1
SHAR RAN
1
6/1
Stalker
92
88
82.7
80.2
74.2
2
FAITH N HOPE
2
10/1
Stalker
96
88
80.2
87.4
82.4
5
SHE TAKES HEART
5
9/2
Alternator/Stalker
98
79
66.6
81.0
74.0
4
DUCHESS OF DUKE
4
5/2
Alternator/Stalker
91
94
58.2
88.6
82.6
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
Bar
Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:54pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,400 Class Rating: 78
Rating: 4
#7 HANGTIME (ML=2/1)
HANGTIME - My buddies and I have made bucks playing horses with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. The latest speed rating of 76 is the top last race speed fig in the group.
Vulnerable Contenders: #8 FAKE FRONTIER (ML=3/1), #3 YAKABOBO (ML=7/2), #6 VOCAB (ML=5/1),
FAKE FRONTIER - Awfully difficult to wager on this racer when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness lately. This gelding registered a speed rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough today. YAKABOBO - I don't see this questionable contender doing too much off of the very long layoff. He probably needs a race or two to get back into good shape. He showed not much at all in the last race. VOCAB - A pony that breaks his maiden in a Maiden Claimer is usually recognized as a poor risk next time.
Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HANGTIME - Equibase class rating today of 78. Taking a big drop in the level of competition and should wake up versus easier company. Worth a wager.
STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#7 HANGTIME is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:
7 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.
Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $18500 Class Rating: 76
FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.
RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks
# 2 HALLIE'S HERO 3/1
# 9 ALLURING AMERICAN 10/1
# 8 FLAT OUT FAST 6/1
I've got to go with HALLIE'S HERO. Looks very good against this group and will most likely be one of the leaders. He has quite good class ratings, averaging 83, and has to be given a chance in this event. Kennedy has one of the top jockey ROI's on the grounds, returning to players +7 percent. ALLURING AMERICAN - His 56 average has this colt with among the best speed figures in this contest. Has to be given a chance for this event if only for the formidable speed rating earned in the last contest. FLAT OUT FAST - Recorded a solid Equibase Speed Figure last time out. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group of animals - worth a look.
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Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, December 28, 2017
CF (245) STANFORD VS (246) TCU
Take: UNDER
Reason: Your free play for Thursday, December 28, 2017 is in the College Football bowl game between Stanford and TCU. Alamo Bowl pits No 16 Stanford playing No 13 Texas Christian. The Stanford Cardinal are 9-4 S/U and 6-6-1 ATS this season. Stanford has done well in Bowl games, going 6-2 ATS their last eight times. These clubs are pretty evenly matched, with Stanford scoring 32 ppg and TCU at 33.2 ppg. Both clubs were excellent home teams, covering all six of their home contests. Stanford closed out the season with a pair of covers against USC and Notre Dame, while TCU lost their last two spread games to Oklahoma and Baylor. Stanford's success lies in Bryce Love, who rushed for 1,973 yards and 17 TD's this season. Love is also a big play back, breaking runs of 50+ yards in all but two of his games this year. Love will go against a TCU defense ranked 12th in the nation and 4th best rushing defense. I think this is one of the best two matched teams in the entire bowl season and will be one heck of a game to watch. I think this game is going to be much lower scoring than what most people think. Take the UNDER as your free play for Thursday.
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Arthur Ralph Sports
THURS: Over 51 Total Vig/Navy gm
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BIG AL
Our complimentary selection for Thursday, Dec 28 is:
Montana State -1.5 over Southern Utah.
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CAPPERS ACCESS
(CFB)
Navy
Oklahoma St
TCU
Washington St
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TEDDY COVERS
Take Oklahoma State (#244)
There’s been a fair bit of buzz in the betting markets about Oklahoma State’s late season ‘collapse’, driving concerns about the Cowboys mentality as they face Virginia Tech in the Camping World Bowl. For a team that had Playoff aspirations, a December 28th bowl game may not push the appropriate motivational buttons for Mike Gundy’s squad.
That being said. Oklahoma State DIDN’T ‘collapse’ down the stretch, winning two out of three after their loss to Oklahoma, including a solid road win at bowl bound Iowa State. They didn’t cover a pointspread in those three ballgames, but that certainly wasn’t unusual for a team that spent most of the season as an overvalued commodity, just 2-6-1 ATS following their 3-0 start.
The Cowboys strength, all season, was their dynamic passing game. Senior QB Mason Rudolph and senior WR James Washington truly enjoyed a special career together in Stillwater. Rudolph enters the bowl game with more than 13,000 career passing yards and a 90-26 TD-INT ratio. Washington averaged more than 20 yards per reception this year, with 221 career receptions for the Cowboys at 19.7 yards per catch. Stop that duo and Okie State is beatable. Otherwise, you’ve got to outscore Mike Gundy’s squad, which only elite offensive teams are capable of doing.
Virginia Tech was most assuredly NOT an elite offensive team this year. The Hokies scored more than 24 in ACC play only once all season. They were held to a grand total of 62 points in their final four ballgames, including SU road losses at Miami and Georgia Tech. Frosh QB Josh Jackson cannot be positively compared to the elite senior QB on the other sideline. The Hokies lacked playmakers around Jackson. Top receiver Cam Phillips was Jackson’s top threat with 71 catches, but he’s out for the bowl game with a hernia. No Virginia Tech RB reached 500 rushing yards, and top backs Travon McMillan and Deshawn McClease didn’t have a single run of 25+ yards all season.
Compared to the potent offenses Okie State has been seeing all year in the Big 12, Virginia Tech’s sputtering attack doesn’t stand up well. The Okie State defense isn’t anywhere near elite, but they’re good enough to get stops against this caliber of competition. Expect a Cowboys win by a TD or more – facing Virginia Tech in Orlando is enough of a motivator to get Okie State interested. Take Oklahoma State.
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RED DOG SPORTS
Soccer | Dec 28, 2017
Arsenal vs. Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +330
Arseanal is a tough team in the England Premier League and favored -140 in this soccer match set for Thursday afternoon. However, Crystal Palace hasn't lost in their last 8 matches having either won or tied. Nice value on the home team at +330.
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CHIP CHIRIMBES
Virginia vs Navy
Cavaliers (+) over Midshipmen
Man Oh Man! How do I play against the Midshipmen? I've played against them three straight outings and we are sporting a wonderful 3-0 ATS record. Now, I want to root for them most (after loss to Army) but I must turn my back. Virginia has lost three straight and five of their last six and yet as I look now that are favored and this game is at Annapolis. Navy has won four straight bowl games but that ends here. Take VIRGINIA!
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SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-B | Dec 28, 2017
Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky-6
I'm recommending a play on Western Kentucky on Thursday. Western Kentucky is 8-5 straight up and 8-3 ATS and Louisiana Tech is 3-7 ATS its last 10 road games dating to last season. The Hilltoppers are one of the few teams in Conference USA who can match Louisiana Tech's offensive firepower as WKU is shooting 50.6 percent overall and 38.9 percent from 3-point range. The Bulldogs have a .451 field goal percentage, but only .397 on the road. Louisiana Tech has a guard-oriented offense after losing two top frontcourt players from last season and no one on the team averages more than 5.4 rebounds per game. DaQuan Bracey, Jalen Harris and Jacobi Boykins combine for 45.4 points per contest. Western Kentucky answers with five players averaging double figures led by Darius Thompson with 14.2 per game and the Hilltoppers have outscored opponents 550-367 in the paint. WKU has covered the spread four of its last five home games and its five losses this season have come by a total of 22 points against some decent competition. We're recommending a play on Western Kentucky minus the points on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
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DUSTIN HAWKINS
NCAA-B | Dec 28, 2017
San Francisco vs. San Diego
Free Play on San Francisco +4 -110
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LARRY NESS
My 1* Free Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST).
The 15-18 Philadelphia 76ers are in Portland to take on the 17-16 Blazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.
The 76ers broke a five-game losing streak with a win in New York on Christmas Day, while the Blazers snapped a three-game slide with a win over the Lakers in their latest action.
Let’s not read too much into one decent game for the 76ers though. Joel Embiid returned on X-Mas Day and the big man did help, but I think Philadelphia returns to mediocrity in this late West coast contest as it also gets caught “looking ahead” to its back-to-back road games at Denver and at Phoenix on New Years eve.
Damian Lillard hasn’t played in the last two games for the Blazers, but the dynamic point guard is expected back in the line-up tonight. Even if Lillard doesn’t play, I still think this is a spot which favors Portland.
As note that Philadelphia is just 1-2 ATS in its last three when playing on three days rest, while Portland is 3-1 ATS this year already off an upset win as an underdog.
I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup either. Consider laying the points with the Trailblazers.
Good luck…Larry
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TOMMY BRUNSON
Going to go Over the total in tonight's Alamo Bowl from San Antonio as Stanford and TCU get the scoring going.
I know both teams are predominantly Under teams - Cardinal 8 of 13 this season Under, while the Horned Frogs were 10 of 13 Under the total for the season - but I also know that BOTH teams can score the football, and this total is simply too low to trust a 10-7 defensive slug-fest to ensue.
Stanford scored 4 TD's or better in 7 of their 13 games this season, while TCU managed to go for 24 points or better in 10 of their 13 games this year. The Frogs also allowed 4 teams this season to get 31-points or more on them as well, while the Cardinal enter at 6-1 Over the total their last 7 neutral site contests.
Simply put, this total is very low for a game being played indoors.
Both teams know how to score, and we will see enough scores to land easily Over the total.
Alamo Bowl Over between TCU-Stanford.
3* TCU-STANFORD OVER
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