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Thread: Service Plays Thursday 12/28/17

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    8 Unit Play. Take #505/506 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks Over 212 (8:05 PM, Thursday, December 28)


    Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet when the Minnesota Timberwolves hit the road to take on the Bucks at the BMO Harris Bradley Center in Milwaukee, WI on Thursday night. The Timberwolves have posted a perfect 4-0 record to the over in their last four road games where they faced a team with a winning record at home and they have that same 4-0 record to the over in their last four road games overall. They have also gone over the total in seven of their last nine games where they faced a team from the Central Division and they are an impressive 37-16 to the over in their last 53 games versus a team from the Eastern Conference going back into the 2016/17 season. The Bucks have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here tonight as they have gone a perfect 4-0-1 to the over in their last five games where they were playing with one day of rest and they are also a perfect 7-0-1 to the over in their last eight home games. They have also gone over the number in each of their last five games versus a team from the Western Conference and they are a lights out 15-5-1 to the over in their last 21 games overall. A deeper look into the team stats will show you why we like the over this evening. Both teams are in the top half of the league in scoring with the TWolves putting up 108.4 PPG, good for 6th in the NBA and the Bucks are scoring 105.2 PPG, good for 14th. They have also both struggled to get stops on the defensive end as Minnesota is giving up just over 106 PPG, which places them 19th in the league and the Bucks have been nearly as bad, checking in at 17th while allowing 105.8 PPG. Throw in the fact that the TWolves are 9-3 to the over in their thirteen games played in the month of December and that the Bucks have gone an insane 12-0 to the over in their twelve games this month and that's where we'll have our play as we expect both teams to push the pace in Milwaukee, giving us a winner Wednesday night in our 8-Unit NBA Total of the Year!

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  19. #59
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    1-Unit Play. Take #507 New York (+12) over San Antonio (8:30 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 28)

    The Knicks aren't a good road team, but we are gambling on if they win this game outright. Our play is on them to cover this big line, and they will do just that. The Knicks covered both games versus the Spurs last season, and they were a much worse squad. Look for New York to keep this game respectable tonight. The Knicks have had success versus the Western Conference as well as of late covering eight of their last nine versus the West. Take the points in this matchup as the Knicks have covered four of their last five trips to San Antonio.

    Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports

  20. #60
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    Thursday, December 28

    *New York (+12 ½) over SAN ANTONIO

    Rotation #507 – 5:35 pm Pacific

    San Antonio barely covered against the Nets as an 11 ½ point favorite (won by 12 with some positive 3-point variance) and now they’re favored by 12 ½ over the Knicks? I understand that New York played last night but New York is an average team and even with a rest advantage the Spurs would have to be 8 points better than an average team to justify a line this high. So far this season the Spurs have been 2.6 points better than an average team and even with Kawhi Leonard back they are still not an elite team until the prove it. I rate the Spurs at 5 points better than average with Leonard still playing limited minutes (26 minutes has been his maximum so far) and I’d favor San Antonio by just 9 ½ points in this game and I’ll take New York in a 1-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.



    ***Detroit (-4 at -115 odds) over ORLANDO

    Line moved back to -4.5 after I released this play to subscribers

    Rotation #501 – 4:05 pm Pacific

    Orlando was already a bad team without Terrence Ross and losing Nikola Vucevic is a major blow even with Evan Fournier and possibly Aaron Gordon back in the lineup. As I pointed out in Tuesday’s anti-Magic play, Gordon and Fournier both have really negative plus-minus numbers when Ross and Vucevic are both on the bench. The problem with Vucevic not playing is it gives more minutes to Bismak Biyombo, who started on Thursday. Biyombo has a plus-minus of -186 points in 550.7 minutes this season, which is -16.2 points per 48 minutes. The Magic are actually even in point differential in the minutes that Vucevic has been on the court this season, so you can see why I rate Orlando much lower with Vucevic out.

    Reggie Jackson has going Avery Bradley on the injury list for Detroit but that’s actually not a problem at all. Detroit has won 4 of 5 games without Bradley in the lineup and Jackson has always been a negative impact player. Detroit got much worse last season when Jackson joined the rotation after missing a big chunk of games at the beginning of the season and he has a -11 plus-minus this season on a team that is +39 in points margin for the season. Actually, when either Bradley or Jackson are on the floor the Pistons have been outscored by 13 points in 1083.7 minutes this season and Detroit is +52 points in 500.3 minutes (+5.0 points per 48 minutes) when both guards are sitting on the bench. Part of that is due to Bradley and Jackson mostly playing against their opponent’s starting units but after adjusting for that I still rate the Pistons as a bit better without Jackson and Bradley (all because Jackson is a negative player).

    The Magic are now 3-20 straight up and 5-17-1 ATS in their last 23 games, and they’re even worse without Vucevic, and my player specific ratings favor Detroit by 9 ½ points in this game. I’ll take Detroit in a 3-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.

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