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Alex Smith ranked 1st in passer rating and 3rd in ANY/A
Marcus Mariota ranked 27th in passer rating and 22nd in ANY/A
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Two big spreads for the Wild Card round ... KC -8½ and JAC -8½
Since 1996, teams favored by -7.5 or more in the Wild Card round are 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS.
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When was the last time favorites went 4-0 ATS in Wild Card Weekend?
Last year and one other time (2012) since 2003
Best year for dogs?
2013 when they went 3-0-1 ATS
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Titans vs Chiefs
The Chiefs have won their last three home games by an average of 14.6 points.
The Titans averaged just 17.5 points per game on the road this season, along with the third fewest yards per game on the road (270.8).
Marcus Mariota on the road this season: five TDs, 11 INTs, 69.1 QB rating.
In four career games vs the Titans, Alex Smith has a 1-3 SU record with three TDs and eight INTs.
The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on the road against the Chiefs.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs' last eight games. The average combined score in these games was 42.25.
The Chiefs are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games in the late afternoon.
The Titans are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games on the road.
The Titans are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog.
The Titans are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games against AFC West teams.
The Titans are 4-15-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a win.
The Titans are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games on the road against teams with winning records.
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Falcons vs Rams
The Falcons are 0-5 SU in their last five games as an underdog. They lost these games by an average of seven points.
The Falcons are 1-19 SU in their last 20 games as an underdog of six or more points.
The Falcons are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games at night.
The Rams are 3-11 SU and ATS in their last 14 games at night.
The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as underdog.
The Falcons are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games on the West Coast.
The favored team is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in this matchup.
Since 1991, the Falcons are 3-9 SU and ATS as an underdog in the playoffs.
Over his last four games, Todd Gurley has 749 all-purpose yards and eight touchdowns.
Matt Ryan posted a 78.7 QB rating in December — his worst of any month this season.
The total has gone OVER in the Falcons' last seven games against the Rams.
The Rams are 5-0 SU in their last five games after a loss.
The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last five games. The average combined score in these games was 34.6.
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Bills vs Jaguars
The Jaguars have won five straight home games by an average of 16.6 points.
The Bills are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
The Jaguars rank first in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. Buffalo ranks 28th over the course of the entire season.
The Jaguars averaged the third-most yards per game in the NFL at home (337.3).
The total has gone OVER in the Bills' last five games against the Jaguars. The average combined score in these games was 55.
Blake Bortles has a 98 QB rating at home compared with a 69.4 QB rating on the road.
The visiting team is 5-1 ATS in the last six games in this matchup.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Jaguars' last seven games in the early afternoon.
The Bills are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight games on the road in January.
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Panthers vs Saints
The Panthers rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play over their last three games. New Orleans ranks first over the course of the entire season.
In five career home playoff games, Drew Brees has 12 TD passes and 1 INT.
The Panthers are 1-3 SU in their last four games against the Saints.
The Panthers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games against the Saints.
The total has gone OVER in six of the Panthers' last seven games against
the Saints. The average combined score in those games was 57.1.
New Orleans is first in the league with 30.1 points per game at home.
The Saints are 5-0 SU in their last five home playoff games.
The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.
The Panthers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road.
The Panthers are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games in the late afternoon.
The total has gone OVER in five of the Panthers' last seven games.
The Panthers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games on the road against the Saints.
The Panthers are 1-6 SU in their last seven divisional road games.
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What Refs Bettors Need to Know for Wild Card Weekend
Jeff Triplette, Ed Hochuli, John Hussey and Tony Corrente will lead the four crews officiating the Wild Card games. Referees are expected to be impartial but are there tendencies that bettors can exploit?
Note: Records include regular season and playoff games since 2003.
Jeff Triplette: Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
◾Favorites: 81-67-2 ATS (54.7%, +10.82 units)
◾Home Teams: 68-77-2 ATS (46.9%, -11.57 units)
◾Overs: 76-70-4 (52.1%, +2.36 units)
◾Chiefs: 6-3 ATS
◾Titans: 5-8 ATS
If you like betting the favorite, 65% of spread dollars have moved the Chiefs from -7.5 to -8.5, Jeff Triplette is the zebra for you. The chalk is 81-67-2 (54.7%) ATS when Triplette officiates, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $1,082 betting his games – most profitable in the Bet Labs database.
Ed Hochuli: Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
◾Favorites: 66-89-4 ATS (42.6%, -26.29 units)
◾Home Teams: 72-81-4 ATS (47.1%, -12.15 units)
◾Overs: 76-81-2 (48.4%, -8.14 units)
◾Rams: 6-4 ATS
◾Falcons: 1-8 ATS
Is Ed Hochuli a dog or cat person? Based on this information I’d say the muscle-bound NFL rules enforcer has a thing for the pooches. Underdogs are 89-66-4 (57.4%) ATS and big dogs, teams getting 6 or more points, have gone 36-19-2 (65.5%) ATS when biceps-Ed oversees a game.
John Hussey: Jacksonville Jaguars (-8.5) vs. Buffalo Bills
◾Favorites: 26-19-1 ATS (57.8%, +5.32 units)
◾Home Teams: 23-21-1 ATS (52.3%, +0.50 units)
◾Overs: 18-27-1 (40.0%, -9.89 units)
◾Jaguars: 0-2 ATS
◾Bills: 1-1 ATS
We don’t have a lot of information about Hussey as this is only his third season as a crew chief.
Tony Corrente: New Orleans Saints (-7) vs. Carolina Panthers
◾Favorites: 72-78-3 ATS (48.0%, -8.34 units)
◾Home Teams: 76-71-3 ATS (51.7%, +2.63 units)
◾Overs: 64-87-2 (42.4%, -25.41 units)
◾Saints: 5-4 ATS
◾Panthers: 7-2 ATS
The total for Saints-Panthers is sitting at 48.5, tied for the highest in the Wild Card round. A majority of bets and dollars are on the Over, which could burn bettors. Corrente is the least profitable Over official in our database going 64-87-2 (42.4%). In high total games (46 or more points), the Over is 22-36 (37.9%) when Corrente is on the field.
Placing a wager based solely on the past results of the referee officiating the game would be unwise, but this is one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler. Knowledge leads to an edge, an edge turns into profit.
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MGM Race And Sports ... on Wild Card Weekend
"Line heads north in all 4 games. Sharp action on Rams & Saints. Bills drawing bulk of tickets vs. Jags, but more money on JAX. And ticket count 2/1 on Chiefs at home vs. Titans"
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TITANS AT CHIEFS (-9) | O/U: 44
Saturday, 4:20 p.m. ET | ESPN
Betting market ...
Despite the move from -7 to -9, there’s not much to talk about in terms of sharp or public action. One interesting angle here: KC is a big parlay/teaser play, so this game could set up the entire weekend for the books/public
What the metrics say ...
The Titans are a total fraud. They’re one of only two playoff teams with a negative point differential — and they played one of the easiest schedules in the league. But the Titans actually match up fairly well with KC. Their rush defense (fourth overall in yards per game and yards per carry allowed) can contain the Chiefs’ ground game. And Tennessee should be able to run on KC’s 32nd-ranked rush defense in DVOA.
Injury watch ...
Titans RB DeMarco Murray (knee) has already been ruled out, meaning we’ll get Round 2 of the Derrick Henry Show vs. the Chiefs’ putrid rush defense (see above). Meanwhile, the Chiefs’ backup RB stable is far from healthy, as both RB Akeem Hunt (ankle, out) and RB/WR De’Anthony Thomas (leg, out) were placed on IR following Week 17. CB Phillip Gaines (elbow, out) joins them, but the Chiefs’ defense at least tentatively expects to have contributors DL Jarvis Jenkins (knee, questionable), DE Tamba Hali (knee, questionable), LB Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder, questionable), DL Bennie Logan (knee, questionable), and DT Rakeem Nunez-Roches (ankle, questionable). The Chiefs’ offense will welcome back RB Charcandrick West (flu, probable), while WR Albert Wilson (hamstring, probable) will look to ball out against a Titans secondary that could be without CB Brice McCain (hamstring, questionable) and feature a less-than-100% CB Logan Ryan (illness, questionable).
According to weather data, winds of 10 mph are expected at kickoff, along with 30-degree temps. Marcus Mariota has played just two games in temperatures below freezing during his college and pro career. He won and covered both contests. One came last week vs. the Jags. The other? Last December, when Mariota trailed by 10 points entering the fourth quarter and led the Titans back to victory on the road in … Arrowhead.
Sneaky storylines ...
The Chiefs struggle in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on just 42% of their drives inside the 20. That ranks 29th in the NFL, and it’s the worst mark among all playoff teams. KC also ranks 29th with 65.2 penalty yards per game, while the Titans are much more disciplined (49.1, fifth overall).
DFS edge ...
Alex Smith, 2017’s QB4 in average DraftKings PPG, scored 25-plus DraftKings points in five games, an incredible feat considering Smith passed that threshold on just three occasions in 2014-16. He’s set up well against the Titans’ 24th-ranked defense in pass DVOA. Smith is especially appealing on FanDuel, where he is the highest-rated quarterback in the Levitan and CSURAM88 Models, although he is projected to be the highest-owned QB across the industry.
The under is worth a strong look, especially since you can count on Reid botching the time management at the end of a half to cost his team points. KC’s ability to take care of the ball (league-best 11 turnovers all season) will be the difference; Tennessee had a minus-4 turnover differential this season, worst among all playoff teams.
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FALCONS AT RAMS (-5.5) | O/U: 48
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NBC
Betting market ...
This line opened Rams -4.5, moved up to -6.5, and bumped back down to -5.5 on Thursday evening. Such a big move across a key number (-6) indicates this could be sharp money. With the ticket count exactly 50-50, it will be interesting to see if the public takes more of a side as the game gets closer.
Injury watch ...
The Falcons will have to make do without LG Andy Levitre (triceps, IR), but RB Devonta Freeman (knee, not listed on final report), WR Julio Jones (rib/ankle, not listed), C Alex Mack (calf, not listed), TE Levine Toilolo (knee, not listed) and WR Taylor Gabriel (hamstring, not listed) are all good to go. The Rams’ decision to rest starters in Week 17 appears to have paid off, as their only injured players — LB Mark Barron (Achilles, questionable) and WR/KR Pharoh Cooper (shoulder, questionable) — are expected to give it a go Saturday night.
What the metrics say ...
Expect a big day out of the Falcons’ RB duo: The Rams rank 30th in yards per carry allowed (4.7). LA has been much better against the pass (third in pass DVOA), but they lost Kayvon Webster for the year a few weeks ago and haven’t really been tested since by a productive passing attack.
The Rams lead the league in scoring (29.9 points per game). In the past 15 years, teams that have scored 28 PPG or more are 24-33 ATS (42.1%) in the playoffs. Also keep this in mind for the Patriots, Eagles, and Saints, who all eclipsed 28 PPG this season.
DFS edge ...
Todd Gurley’s ascension as a receiver can’t be overstated. He converted 84 targets in 2015-16 into a 64-515-0 line, but exploded for a 64-788-6 line on 87 looks this season. This would make Gurley the PPR WR25 before taking into consideration his rushing production. A receiving floor this high is unfair when coupled with Gurley’s plethora of fantasy-friendly opportunities on the ground, as he’s converted a league-high 18 carries inside the 5-yard line into a league-high nine touchdowns from that distance. Throw in 15 rushes of 15-plus yards (tied for fourth among all backs), and we have a three-down machine who was cooked up by the fantasy gods. Gurley carries this week’s highest projected ceiling, floor, and projected Plus/Minus among all skill position players in our Pro Models.
Since 1990, nine teams have broken playoff droughts of 10-plus years: Two are the Rams and Bills this season, and the seven other teams were all eliminated in either the wild card or divisional round of the playoffs. The past four teams to break a lengthy playoff drought — the 2016 Raiders (13 yrs), 2005 Bengals (14 yrs), 2011 Lions (11 yrs), and 1999 Seahawks (10 yrs) — all lost and failed to cover their first playoff game.
LA has one of the least-impactful home-field advantages in football, and the Rams are missing their stud kicker, Greg Zuerlein. With the Falcons’ excellent red zone defense (fifth overall), we’ll be seeing plenty of Zuerlein’s backup, Sam Ficken, who has already missed an extra point and a 35-yarder in his two games this season. I’ll take the more experienced team that’s coming into the playoffs with momentum and advantages in some key advanced metrics.
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BILLS AT JAGUARS (-9) | O/U: 39
Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET | CBS
Injury watch ...
RB LeSean McCoy (ankle, questionable) will reportedly be a game-time decision after getting carted off the field in Week 17. Even if he’s able to play, McCoy will likely be limited. But QB Tyrod Taylor should at least have WR Kelvin Benjamin (knee, probable), T Jordan Mills (ankle, questionable), and TE Charles Clay (knee, probable) to take on the Jaguars’ league-best secondary. Jacksonville’s WR room remains in a constant state of flux, as Marqise Lee (ankle, questionable) still hasn’t returned to practice, but he is reportedly expected to play and has head coach Doug Marrone’s blessing to suit up Sunday even without having practiced all week. The rest of the Jaguars banged-up offense, namely TE Marcedes Lewis (ankle, probable) and LT Cam Robinson (abdomen, questionable), are tentatively expected to play, as well. They’ll face off against a healthy Bills defense that could be on the field a bunch if McCoy is unable to go.
McCoy was responsible for 33% of the Bills offense, second-most in the NFL behind Gurley. His loss would be felt even more considering the Bills’ lack of depth at RB (Mike Tolbert). Without McCoy, it’s hard to envision Buffalo taking advantage of the Jaguars’ biggest defensive weakness: They rank 26th in rush defense DVOA.
Weather report ...
Weather data forecasts 12 mph winds at kickoff. That would favor the Jags, who can lean on their 12th-ranked rushing offense in DVOA against the NFL’s second-worst rushing D. The wind factor is another negative for the Bills offense if McCoy isn’t his usual self: They’ll be forced to throw in adverse passing conditions with subpar receivers against the league’s best pass defense. Expect Tyrod Taylor to be under siege early and often with the Bills’ 31st-ranked O-line in adjusted sack rate facing the Jags’ No. 1 pass-rush.
DFS edge ...
Fournette quietly has carved out a decent-sized receiving role in addition to his goal-line back status, as his average of four targets per game since the Jaguars’ Week 8 bye is more than the likes of LeSean McCoy, Kareem Hunt, and Mark Ingram. He’s one of just four backs with at least seven games of 20-plus carries this season and couldn’t have asked for a better matchup to make his playoff debut. Overall, Fournette is the highest-rated back in the Levitan, Bales, and SportsGeek models in large part thanks to his matchup against a Bills defense that has allowed a slate-high 1.7 DraftKings points above salary-based expectation to running backs over the past 12 months. They’ve allowed an additional nine points and 64.2 rushing yards per game since trading defensive tackle Marcell Dareus to the Jaguars prior to Week 8.
What the metrics say ...
In a game that I expect to be low-scoring, red zone offense will be huge. The Jaguars have a big advantage there, scoring TDs on 64% of trips inside the 20 (second overall), compared to 52.3% for the Bills (21st).
In the past 15 seasons, 11 teams have played a home playoff game coming off a losing streak of two or more games. Those teams are 8-3 SU and ATS, and they have won and covered four in a row and six of their past seven dating back to the 2010 playoffs.
This should be a slugfest, especially with windy conditions expected.
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PANTHERS AT SAINTS (-6.5) | O/U: 47.5
Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET | FOX
The Saints beat the Panthers twice during the regular season, and since 1990, 15 teams have defeated the same opponent twice straight up in the same season and then subsequently faced them again in the playoffs. Those teams are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS.
What the metrics say, Pt. 1 ...
The Panthers’ biggest weapon defense is their pass-rush, which ranks third in adjusted sack rate. They’ll face off against a Carolina O-line adept at keeping Drew Brees upright (No. 2 in adjusted sack rate allowed).
What the metrics say, Pt. 2 ...
One major concern for the Saints? They struggle on third down on both sides of the ball: 19th on offense and 27th on defense. Those figures are troubling against a Carolina team that ranks in the top half of the league in both categories (seventh on offense and 13th on defense).
DFS edge ...
Death, taxes, Michael Thomas dominating the Panthers. Overall, the Saints WR has converted 27 career targets against Carolina into a 22-303-3 line, repeatedly roasting corners James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, PFF’s No. 102 and No. 88 overall cornerbacks this season. Thomas has continued to practice in a limited fashion due to a nagging hamstring issue, but it didn’t affect his playing time last week, as he played on 91% of the snaps and earned a 27% target share. Thomas leads the Saints’ fourth-ranked scoring offense in both targets inside the 10-yard line and balls thrown 20-plus yards downfield. This incredibly fantasy-friendly workload has Thomas sitting atop both our Levitan and Bales Pro Models.
Injury watch ...
The Saints banged-up defense tentatively expects to welcome back DE Trey Hendrickson from his three-game absence, while the offense should have LT Terron Armstead (thigh, questionable), TE Josh Hill (shoulder, questionable), G Senio Kelemete (knee, questionable) and WR Michael Thomas (hamstring, probable) for Round 3 against the Panthers. Carolina’s offense is also healthy, with RB Jonathan Stewart (back, probable), G Trai Turner (concussion, probable), LT Matt Kalil (illness, probable), and WR Devin Funchess (shoulder, probable) all expected to suit up. S Kurt Coleman (ankle, probable) missed Week 17’s matchup against the Falcons, but announced his intentions to play Sunday by simply explaining, “It’s the playoffs.”
New Orleans has the better coach and quarterback, and don’t sleep on the Saints’ D-line. Their ability to get pressure with a standard pass-rush is the most underrated aspect of their team. With shutdown corners on the outside, they can devote an extra defender to spy Cam Newton in the run game.
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A few interesting QB stats ...
Mariota on the road this season: 5 TDs, 11 INTs, 69.1 QB rating.
Bortles has a 98 QB rating at home this season compared with a 69.4 QB rating on the road.
Brees has 12 TD passes and 1 INT in five career home playoff games.
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Panthers coach Ron Rivera: "I love being the underdog.'' He went into quite a speech about how the so-called experts didn't pick Carolina to get this far. So he definitely will use that as an edge.
And ...
Bettors love it when the Panthers are underdogs. Carolina went 5-2 ATS as a dog this season and is 30-20 ATS as an underdog since Cam Newton arrived in 2011, including 12-6 ATS when getting six points or more
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How can you make money in the Playoffs? Pick the straight-up winner
Since 2003, the winning team in the Wild Card Round is 48-5-3 (90.6%) ATS
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Sports Insights ...
Updated Weekend Action
58% on Chiefs -8
53% on Saints -7
51% on Falcons +5.5
51% on Jags -8.5
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South Point ...
"Teaser money still coming in strong on all 4 home teams"
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South Point ...
"All games have taken a move towards the under, but come game day we figure to see a reverse as 65% of all parlays will be connected to the over ... this move has been in place for many years now"
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What will be the most points scored by one team this Weekend?
Bovada ...
Over/Under 34.5
Since 2003 the Over would be 10-4
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