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Thread: Saturday 1-13-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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    Saturday 1-13-18 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc


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    Falcons vs. Eagles Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 01/10/2018

    Although the Philadelphia Eagles boasted the NFL's top mark throughout much of the season and tied a franchise record with 13 wins, they find themselves as the first team in league history to enter its opening playoff game as an underdog. The Eagles aim to silence the critics on Saturday when they host the sixth-seeded Atlanta Falcons in an NFC divisional round contest at Lincoln Financial Field.

    "What bothered me was we were 12-2 (at the time of Carson Wentz's injury) and treated like we were the (winless) Browns," Philadelphia Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson said. "It happens, but I think although we don't like it, it's a good motivator to have people not write good things." Philly's newspapers haven't been kind since potential NFL MVP candidate Wentz was lost for the season with an ACL injury, as the team hasn't given its fickle fans much to cheer with 16 points in its last nine quarters. Last season's NFL MVP, Matt Ryan, who hails from Exton, Pa., recorded his fifth consecutive playoff game with at least a 100.0 passer rating in Atlanta's 26-13 win over the Los Angeles Rams last weekend. "We're not here just to get here. We want to make noise while we're here," Ryan told reporters.

    TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC. LINE: Falcons -3. O/U: 41

    ABOUT THE FALCONS (11-6): Julio Jones, who reeled in nine receptions for 94 yards and a touchdown last week against the Rams, traditionally has flustered Philadelphia in his career. The Pro Bowl wideout had 10 catches for 135 yards in the teams' last meeting in 2016 and has 428 receiving yards in four contests with the Eagles. The potent running back tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for 1,493 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns this season, but the duo will test the mettle of Philadelphia's top-ranked rushing defense (79.2). Speaking of defense, Atlanta has stepped up its game by allowing just 16.3 points per contest over the last six.

    ABOUT THE EAGLES (13-3): Nick Foles answered a sterling four-touchdown performance versus the New York Giants in Week 15 by completing 23 of 49 passes for 202 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions over his last two appearances. "My message to Nick is, 'Listen, you have a great opportunity. Just go be Nick. Go play. Let's go executive the offense,'" coach Doug Pederson said. Zach Ertz is a key part of that offense after earning his first Pro Bowl selection by finishing third among all NFL tight ends with 74 receptions for 824 yards. Ertz and wideout Nelson Agholor each had eight touchdown receptions, one shy of team leader Alshon Jeffery.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. Atlanta LB Deion Jones recorded 10 tackles for the third straight game last week and has 52 over his last five.

    2. Philadelphia DE Brandon Graham (team-leading 9.5 sacks) expects to play on Saturday after being a full participant in practice on consecutive days this week as he works his way back from a high-ankle sprain.

    3. The Eagles' third-ranked rushing offense will face off against a Falcons' defense that allowed just its second 100-yard rushing performance last week versus Rams RB Todd Gurley.

    PREDICTION: Falcons 24, Eagles 16

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    Titans vs. Patriots Preview and Predictions

    By Gracenote for Scores and Stats
    by Gracenote on 01/10/2018

    Amid the background of a reported rift between the owner, coach and star quarterback, the reigning Super Bowl champion New England Patriots host the Tennessee Titans on Saturday night. The Patriots have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in two of the past three seasons and look to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since they accomplished it in 2003-04.

    New England, the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, dealt with a rare off-the-field distraction when ESPN detailed a power struggle between coach Bill Belichick, quarterback Tom Brady and owner Robert Kraft -- a report the team disputed. "The reputation that Coach tries to get us to have is just ignore the noise -- ignore the noise from the outside and I feel like that's what myself and a lot of other players have been doing," Patriots star tight end Rob Gronkowski said. While Brady has 25 playoff wins under his belt, the upstart Titans will arrive in Foxborough fresh off their first postseason win since 2003 -- stunning the Kansas City Chiefs 22-21 after trailing by 18 points at halftime. Tennessee, which lost three straight before beating Jacksonville in Week 17 to clinch a playoff slot, has not won at New England since 2003, when the franchise was still located in Houston.

    TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS. LINE: Patriots -13.5. O/U: 47

    ABOUT THE TITANS (10-7): Quarterback Marcus Mariota threw for more interceptions (15) than scoring passes (13) this season, but he guided Tennessee to three long touchdown drives in the second half, including a TD pass to himself at Kansas City. Mariota also rushed eight times for 46 yards but the Titans' best hopes are to feed backup running back Derrick Henry, who punished the Chiefs for 156 yards and a score on 23 carries. Tight end Delanie Walker had a team-high 74 catches while Rishard Matthews and Eric Decker added 53 and 54, respectively. Tennessee is 25th against the pass (239.3 yards) but tied for fifth in the league with 43 sacks.

    ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (13-3): Brady put up his usual flashy numbers, leading the league with 4,577 yards and tossing 32 touchdowns versus eight interceptions, but he had just six scoring passes and five picks over the past five games. Dion Lewis has rushed for at least 92 yards in four of his past six games and scored five times in the past three, and should get some help with the expected returns of Rex Burkhead and James White from injury. Gronkowski and speedster Brandin Cooks each went over 1,000 yards and combined for 15 touchdowns for New England's top-ranking offense (394.2 yards). The Patriots limited 10 of their last 12 opponents to 17 points or fewer.

    EXTRA POINTS

    1. Brady has 1,528 yards with 13 TDs and zero interceptions in six meetings versus Tennessee.

    2. Mariota has 40 touchdowns and no interceptions in the red zone in his first three seasons.

    3. Gronkowski has six touchdown receptions in his last five postseason games.

    PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Titans 16

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    Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

    RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT - 2:17 PM EASTERN POST
    Say Florida Sandy Stakes
    7.0 FURLONGS DIRT FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

    #4 MY BOY TATE
    #1 OSTROLENKA
    #6 EYE LUV LULU
    #3 CELTIC CHAOS

    This stakes race is restricted to New York-breds only and named after Say Florida Sandy. This dark brown colt made a name for himself in New York and the East Coast winning 2001 New York-bred Horse of the Year. Here in the initial running of "The Sandy," #4 MY BOY TATE is both the overall speed and pace profile leader, and has hit the board in each of his last five outings, winning three times, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. #1 OSTROLENKA, a 4-1 shot, has hit the board in four of his last five outings, including a "Circle Trip" in his 2nd race back.

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 64

    FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. SPECIAL LA MAIDEN).


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 4 SHE SANG DIXIE 5/2

    # 1 MISS WEKATI 4/1

    # 6 ANYTHING BUT AMIE 4/1

    SHE SANG DIXIE is my choice. Could provide positive returns based on strong recent Equibase speed figs with an average of 56. Since this animal changes blinkers - off - there is a formidable chance for a speed improvement in today's outing. I like Saenz on this filly to give her a decent chance to hit the wire first. MISS WEKATI - Has to be given a shot - I like the figures from the last contest. Shows reliable Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when put alongside the rest of this group of horses. ANYTHING BUT AMIE - The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Klanfer running at this distance are the most respectable in this field. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this group of horses in this race in her last contest.

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    Handicapped by Valuline at Fair Grounds

    Today's Most Likely Winner Is at:
    Fair Grounds, Race 5 (Saturday January 13, 2018)

    YOCKEY'S WARRIOR
    (For ten of today's most likely winners, see Exotic Key Plays.)

    FG-5 6f DIRT Six Horses
    "A" STK 4YUP $75,000
    P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL

    4 YOCKEY'S WARRIOR 4/5 36% 9/5 Strong Favorite icon
    1 CHUBLICIOUS 3/1 33% 2/1
    3 ENCHANTERA 10/1 20% 4/1

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    Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

    Always check program numbers.
    Odds shown are morning line odds.

    Race 8 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 94

    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 13 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000


    RECOMMENDED CHOICES
    The Walker Group Picks

    # 15 APPA 6/1

    # 7 SOUND VALUES 4/1

    # 10 UNCLE B 5/1

    My selection in here is APPA. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone. This racer has a fantastic win percent in turf sprints. Has run quite well when running a turf sprint race. SOUND VALUES - Rodriguez has a solid win percent with horses racing in turf sprint races. With a very good 96 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. UNCLE B - He has been travelling admirably recently while recording sharp speed figures. Must be considered - I like the figures from the last race.

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

    Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 8

    $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Quinella


    Allowance • 330 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $11,025 • Post: 9:16P
    QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2017-2018. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PRECIOUS DOMINIQUE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. ONE SWEET WINNER: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. JESS KLAS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. MY FRIEND CINDY: Horse's aver age winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). CROOKED PATH: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
    3
    PRECIOUS DOMINIQUE
    8/5

    9/2
    5
    ONE SWEET WINNER
    2/1

    6/1
    1
    JESS KLAS
    7/2

    7/1
    2
    MY FRIEND CINDY
    8/1

    8/1
    4
    CROOKED PATH
    4/1

    8/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    1
    JESS KLAS
    1

    7/2
    Fast
    86

    81

    3.5

    0.0

    0.0
    2
    MY FRIEND CINDY
    2

    8/1
    Average/Trouble-prone
    95

    87

    5.9

    0.0

    0.0
    3
    PRECIOUS DOMINIQUE
    3

    8/5
    Fast
    99

    86

    2.5

    0.0

    0.0
    4
    CROOKED PATH
    4

    4/1
    Average
    92

    84

    5.0

    0.0

    0.0
    5
    ONE SWEET WINNER
    5

    2/1
    Fast
    91

    85

    2.9

    0.0

    0.0

  9. #9
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

    Bar

    Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5 - Post: 2:25pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,700 Class Rating: 71

    Rating: 3

    #5 ZORTEC (ML=5/1)
    #8 LORD ANTHONY (ML=12/1)
    #12 LASER FOCUS (ML=3/1)
    #1 CHOSEN ROYAL (ML=6/1)
    #4 DIAMOND LUCKIE (ML=7/2)


    ZORTEC - In my personal list of handicapping angles, this is a good one. Horse's last 2 speed figs are higher than today's Equibase class figure. To me, that's a good indication we have a strong contender here. In this race here, this pony has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance-surface. The 79 recent race speed rating looks good in the TrackMaster PPs. LORD ANTHONY - Don't often see a positive ROI like +276. This jockey/handler duet has done well together over the last year. O'Connell drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more information to figure that this horse has a good chance at this level. LASER FOCUS - This horse's last race was at Woodbine in a race with an Equibase class figure of 76. Dropping a significant amount in class figure today puts him in a solid position in this event. I like to see fast works. This gelding's last one was very good. Second fastest of the day. Another way to judge class is (EPS) earnings per start. This racer has the uppermost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish. CHOSEN ROYAL - Taking a trip to a lower class level; has the ability to make his presence felt. DIAMOND LUCKIE - Trainer Bowersock moves this one down the class ladder to face a lower class of horses. Look for a good race in this race. This gelding is in excellent form right now. Ran third last out and comes back soon.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WATCH CAPTAIN (ML=4/1), #2 MIZZEN LYNX (ML=9/2),

    WATCH CAPTAIN - This gelding likely won't be on the money at the finish line. MIZZEN LYNX - Finished fourth on Dec 27th after the long vacation. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this race. This animal just hasn't looked ready lately.

    Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DIAMOND LUCKIE - Posting a better speed rating each of his last couple of races. This gelding is a prime candidate to win today.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Go with #5 ZORTEC on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [5,8]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    [5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] Total Cost: $36

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    [5,8] with [5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] Total Cost: $24

    SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
    [5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] with [1,4,5,8,12] Total Cost: $72

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    F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turfway Park

    Turfway Park - Race 4

    Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6)


    Claiming $5,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $7,100 • Post: 3:00P
    FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 13, 2017. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).
    Contenders

    Race Analysis
    P#
    Horse
    Morn
    Line

    Accept
    Odds


    Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BLUEGRASS BEAT: Horse has a TrackMaster "B" designation. THE GREEN COUGAR: Horse ranks i n the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BARRISTER JIM: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. PINER CAT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. TWO MINUTE MAN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
    14
    BLUEGRASS BEAT
    8/1

    5/1
    5
    THE GREEN COUGAR
    5/1

    6/1
    12
    BARRISTER JIM
    3/1

    7/1
    4
    PINER CAT
    6/1

    8/1
    9
    TWO MINUTE MAN
    12/1

    9/1




    P#

    Horse (In Running Style Order)

    Post

    Morn
    Line

    Running Style

    Good
    Class

    Good
    Speed

    Early Figure

    Finish Figure

    Platinum
    Figure
    4
    PINER CAT
    4

    6/1
    Front-runner
    81

    75

    68.8

    68.6

    57.6
    12
    BARRISTER JIM
    12

    3/1
    Front-runner
    81

    75

    67.8

    54.8

    37.8
    10
    EMMETT'S DREAM
    10

    6/1
    Front-runner
    83

    71

    65.1

    63.7

    49.2
    14
    BLUEGRASS BEAT
    14

    8/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    90

    79

    62.6

    67.3

    62.8
    3
    HURRICANE PASS
    3

    10/1
    Alternator/Stalker
    90

    82

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0
    11
    TOP GATO
    11

    6/1
    Trailer
    83

    72

    43.8

    70.0

    60.0
    5
    THE GREEN COUGAR
    5

    5/1
    Trailer
    88

    73

    33.4

    73.4

    69.4
    6
    KOWBOY KODY
    6

    5/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    79

    73

    58.8

    63.0

    45.5
    9
    TWO MINUTE MAN
    9

    12/1
    Alternator/Trailer
    82

    83

    52.0

    70.6

    57.1
    2
    JUSTFOLLOWMYLEAD
    2

    30/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    79

    68

    64.8

    57.2

    37.2
    1
    DOURO
    1

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    79

    76

    36.8

    51.6

    27.1
    7
    CLEARLY PERFECTION
    7

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    73

    63

    8.3

    49.6

    28.6
    8
    RANKHASPRIVILEGES
    8

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    81

    73

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0
    13
    CANDY CHANT
    13

    20/1
    Alternator/Non-contender
    90

    76

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

  11. #11
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    Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

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    Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,300 Class Rating: 65

    Rating: 4

    #3 REVA BELLA (ML=8/1)
    #1 SEEKING PERFECTION (ML=9/2)


    REVA BELLA - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer twosome. Was in a $20,000 Maiden Claiming race at Golden Gate Fields in the last race. That event had a class figure of 85 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain serious competitor. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. SEEKING PERFECTION - Esquilin and Torres-Casas perform well when they combine forces. It's hard to beat a +89 return on investment for a jock and handler. This filly finished well ahead of the 3rd horse on December 31st. Those horses tend to run well next time out. I believe this thoroughbred will be right there at the wire. Gets Lasix for the second time, so Torres-Casas must have confidence in her. A repeat of that most recent race on Dec 31st where she garnered a speed fig of 61 looks high enough to triumph in this clash.

    Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NANG NOI (ML=1/1), #5 SUNSHINEANDWHISKEY (ML=4/1), #2 CREATIVE DOUX (ML=6/1),

    NANG NOI - If you keep betting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied most every time. SUNSHINEANDWHISKEY - Can't wager on this mount in today's sprint of 6 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a short distance clash recently. CREATIVE DOUX - Would have to move up off that sixth place finish last time to make an impact here.

    Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - REVA BELLA - Earnings per start is a sign of class. I often play horses like this one that are at the top in the field in earnings per start.





    STRAIGHT WAGERS:
    Put your money on #3 REVA BELLA on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more

    EXACTA WAGERS:
    Box [1,3]

    TRIFECTA WAGERS:
    Skip

    SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
    None

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