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A few interesting live betting trends ...
PHI is 8-0 SU with a +13.75 avg point differential when scoring 1st.
JAC is 9-0 SU with a +20.11 avg point differential when leading after 1st Q
MIN is 6-0 SU with a +15.5 avg point differential when scoring 1st
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Ben Roethlisberger has been extremely average in the playoffs ... 25 TDs, 23 INTs and a 84.3 QB rating.
In 9 playoff home games, he has 12 TDs and 14 INTs
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NFC #1 seeds are 22-5 SU in the Divisional round since 1990. Eagles are +3 at home vs the Falcons.
*The last to lose was 2017 Cowboys (34-31 to Rodgers & Green Bay)
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The total has gone UNDER in the last three games between the Jags and Steelers. Those games had an average combined score of 31.67.
Total for Sunday's game is at 41.
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The Vikings are 19-4 SU in their last 23 games as home favorites.
They had an average win margin of 13.74 in the 19 wins.
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Refs for the Divisional Round
Mike Pereira @MikePereira
"Horrible way to start the playoffs. I hate to say it but this was not a good performance by the crew. Teams and fans deserve better"
Jeff Triplette’s crew did such a poor job overseeing the Chiefs-Titans game that he retired. Let’s hope this weekend’s crews do a better job. Brad Vinovich, Ron Torbert, Brad Allen and Gene Steratore are the crew chiefs for the Divisional Round. Here is what bettors need to know about each official.
This is just one more piece of information to make you a more informed gambler. The records below include regular season and playoff games since 2003.
Bill Vinovich: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons (-3)
◾Favorites: 34-32-2 (51.5%, -0.70 units)
◾Home Teams: 29-36-2 (44.6%, -8.42 units)
◾Overs: 30-37-1 (44.8%, -8.39 units)
◾Eagles: 2-3 ATS
◾Falcons: 4-3 ATS
In the regular season, the Over when Vinovich is on the field is 25-36-1 (41.0%) but 5-1 in the playoffs. Why? Your guess is as good as mine. The total for Eagles-Falcons opened 43.5 and has been bet down to 41. In the postseason, when the total decreases the Under is 44-36-3 and the win rate and return on investment improves the more the line goes down.
Ron Torbert: New England Patriots (-13.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
◾Favorites: 28-17-1 (62.2%, +9.97 units)
◾Home Teams: 20-24-1 (45.5%, -4.95 units)
◾Overs: 27-19 (58.7%, +6.47 units)
◾Patriots: 2-0 ATS
◾Titans: 1-1 ATS
Jeff Triplette was the most profitable ref for favorites in our database until the Chiefs blew an 18-point halftime lead. Now Ron Torbert wears the crown, or would it be whistle? Favorites are 28-17-1 (62.2%) ATS when Torbert officiates a game. Like the Patriots need any more advantages against the Titans.
Brad Allen: Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
◾Favorites: 31-29-1 (51.7%, +1.10 units
◾Home Teams: 34-25-1 (57.6%, +7.02 units)
◾Overs: 26-35 (42.6%, -10.16 units)
◾Steelers: 1-2 ATS
◾Jaguars: 1-1 ATS
Allen is the 3rd most profitable Under official in our database but most of those gains came in 2016 when the Under went 13-3 in games he officiated.
Gene Steratore: Minnesota Vikings (-5) vs. New Orleans Saints
◾Favorites: 69-79-6 (46.6%, -12.81 units)
◾Home Teams: 73-75-5 (49.3%, -5.75 units)
◾Overs: 74-76-4 (49.3%, -5.39 units)
◾Vikings: 5-3 ATS
◾Saints: 4-6 ATS
Last week we discovered that Ed Hochuli loves dogs, underdogs that is. A fellow canine enthusiast is Steratore. Underdogs have a profitable record in the regular season and playoffs when Steratore is in charge.
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Jaguars QB Blake Bortles is the NFL’s highest-rated passer (147.3) on play action passes since Week 13
However, Bortles’ 68.3 passer rating on non-play action passes ranks 26th out of 30 qualified quarterbacks over the same span
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Junior Member
- Rep Power
- 7
Crazy stat heading in the #eagles
#falcons
#NFL Divisional Playoff game in Phila. Dome teams playing outside in playoffs when temperature is 35 degrees or less, 4-23 in last 27. Game time temp 35 going down into the 20’s.
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Since Ryan Shazier's injury, Steelers are allowing 5.3 yards/carry, no other team is giving up more than 4.9 yards
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Since 2003, the OVER is 26-8 (76.5%) in postseason games played inside of a closed dome
NO vs MIN total opened 44.5, up to 46.5
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The last fave of 10+ pts to lose outright in the playoffs was CAR -10 vs. AZ in January 2009
Since then, double-digit favorites in the Playoffs are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS
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With Wentz, Eagles ranked 3rd in third-down conversions, fallen to 30th with Foles
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LV SuperBook ...
Titans at Patriots (-13.5, 48)
58% of the bets are on the Patriots but 60% of the money is on the Titans
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Cold weather expected for Divisional Round
In all games played since 2003, the OVER is 101-80-4 (55.8%) when the temperature is 32 degree or colder and the total is 44 points or less
JAX vs PIT average temp 20 degrees ... total 41.5
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Bookmaker ...
Saints vs. Vikings
Opener (-4, 44')
Current (-5, 47)
"Public believes Saints + is a gift from God. Recent Vikings sharp action greatly reduced our side liability"
"The over is our biggest total liability and the most wagered option by wiseguys"
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Caesars Palace ...
Saints at Vikings (-5, 47)
57% of bets are on New Orleans ... 69% of money is on Minnesota
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Bortles, not know for being good, has struggled on the road this season:
55.6% completion, 6 TDs, 8 INTs
Includes games vs. Browns, Colts and Jets
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Bookmaker ...
Falcons vs. Eagles
Opener (+3, 43')
Current (+3, 41)
"The under has definitely seen a ton of sharp $$$ since the open. But with the public mostly on the over, it's offset a good chunk of the liability"
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Antonio Brown (calf/illness, questionable) is a game-time decision for Sunday's Divisional Round game against the Jaguars.
Brown's calf is reportedly "still an issue" despite practicing this week. He's expected to play, but his status could go down to pregame warmups.
Playing at less than 100 percent, Brown could struggle in a matchup with Jalen Ramsey.
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