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Thread: Final 4 Betting Info

  1. #41
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  2. #42
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    I'm sure it's nothing ... but worth noting ...


    Brady won't be speaking with the media on Wednesday as the Patriots say the quarterback is with the medical team.

    New England also noted that Brady will be on the injury report that's set to be released later this afternoon as they get ready for their AFC Championship matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

  3. #43
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    Why Jacksonville is a good bet on Sunday
    Mark Gallant - ESPN INSIDER


    Three games remain. For us bettors, that means only six potential full-game spread and total bets for the rest of the football season ... yikes! Always remember: Never bet a game just for action. Just because there is a big game on TV doesn't mean you have to force a bet. If you don't think you have an edge, feel free to sit back, relax and hoist a few brews as you watch some stress-free football.

    With that said, I have one pick for you this weekend.


    There are a few reasons I like Jacksonville here. The first is that they are getting more than a touchdown. Dating back to 2003, teams getting at least seven points in the playoffs have done well against the spread. This is especially true if you eliminate the wild-card round from your sample.

    It makes sense that teams in the final three rounds have done well against the spread when getting more than a touchdown, as they're (generally) strong teams and deserve to be there. You'd imagine that games between the last handful of NFL teams remaining would be closely fought battles, and based off this data, we find that has indeed been the case.

    When looking at teams getting 40 percent of bets or less, we find that betting against the public remains a profitable endeavor in the postseason. As of Tuesday, the Jaguars are getting only 39 percent of bets as nearly double-digit 'dogs.

    Perhaps the trend I like the most, though, is that underperforming teams have dominated in the postseason. This is based off Pythagorean plus/minus, a theory I touched on a few weeks back. Based off their point differential, the Jaguars should have a better record than they do. Most of the time, these teams don't make the playoffs, as you would expect. This season, the Jaguars were the only playoff team with a negative Pythagorean plus/minus, while the Steelers, Tennessee Titans, Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills all had win percentages of .100 or higher than they should have.

    At +9, there are plenty of reasons to bet on the Jags. I'm genuinely interested in seeing whether they can hit +10 at some point in the week. Given the public's deserved love of the New England Patriots, I'd say there is a fair chance it reaches double digits. I'll be waiting to see which direction the line heads before locking in my bet, as the potential reward for +10 is greater than the risk of moving from +9 to +8.5.

  4. #44
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    Ian Rapoport‏ ...

    "Vikings WR Adam Thielen did not participate in practice today because of a low back injury. He was present watching"

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    South Point ...


    "So far just small play on all 4 sides"

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    The Eagles did not have a player on their roster record 1,000 scrimmage yards this season.

    The last team to make a Super Bowl without a single player reaching the 1,000-yard threshold? The 1990 Giants who beat the Bills in Super Bowl XXV.

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    Updated #'s at LV SuperBook ...


    Jaguars (46)
    Patriots -8.5


    Vikings -3
    Eagles (39)

  8. #48
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    NFL teams are 462-231-2 (.667) last three seasons when throwing 0 INT.

    Jaguars are 10-0 when Bortles has no INTs this season (2-6 otherwise)

    Patriots 8-2 when Brady throws no INTs (6-1 when he does)

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    Eagles are 8-0 SU with an avg point differential of +13.75 when scoring first


    Vikings are 7-0 SU with an avg point differential of +14 when scoring first

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    Since 1990, 7 dome teams have been favored in outdoor road playoff games


    0-7 SU and ATS

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    Patriots are 7-0 SU with an avg point differential of +18.43 when leading after the 1st quarter


    Jaguars are 10-0 SU with an avg point differential of +18.4 when leading after the 1st quarter

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    Bookmaker‏ ... Thursday Update


    Opener (-8, 47)
    Current (-8, 46.5)


    61% of Bets on New England

    51% of Bets on the Under

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    Bookmaker‏ ... Thursday Update


    Opener (+3, 38.5)
    Current (+3, 39)


    54% of Bets on Philadelphia

    56% of Bets on the Under

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    I'm sure this is non-news ... just sharing


    Ian Rapoport‏ ...

    "Brady did not practice today. He was out there with the team, but did not do work with his injured hand"

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    Dome teams in outdoor playoff games ... since 1990


    Straight-up ... 12-43

    ATS ... 18-35-2

  17. #57
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    Pats currently -7.5 at LV SuperBook

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    Bookmaker‏ ...


    "Sharp money continues to funnel in on the Jags" ... New England now -7 (-118)

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    Vegas and offshore oddsmakers are taking the news about Tom Brady’s hand injury seriously. And so are sharp bettors.


    CG Technology, which operates numerous sportsbooks in Vegas including the Cosmopolitan, started Thursday with the spread at 8.5 as did the Westgate and both moved down to 7.5 by the end of the day.

    South Point oddsmaker Chris Andrews began the day at Pats -9 before moving the spread to -7.5, but not before sharp bettors tagged his sportsbook for wagers as large as $20,000 on the underdog.

    Offshore book TheGreek.com received limit bets on the Jaguars throughout the week with sharp bettors taking the points at Jags +10, Jags +9 and +8. TheGreek.com was one of the few locations to open with the Patriots favored by double digits.

    “I honestly don’t believe (the sharp bettors) bet it because of the Brady information because it was known well before (Thursday), so if that were the reason, they would have bet it long before,” TheGreek.com sportsbook director Scott Kaminsky said. “I just think that they like the dog. They bet big money and probably just think the Jacksonville defense will keep the game close.”


    The chances of Brady sitting out are small but Peter Childs, oddsmaker at Sportsbook.ag, said he would most likely reopen the spread with the Patriots favored by two points.

    Kaminsky said he would make a Brady-less New England team still slight favorites against the Jaguars and predicted a bigger shift on the total. The total opened at 47 and moved down a half point to 46.5.

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