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Sunday will be 5th time Brady has played a playoff game against a defense that had 50 or more sacks
His numbers in those games ...
54.9% completion rate
4 TDs
5 INTs
13 sacks
2-2 record (SU and ATS)
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According to oddsmakers, New England would still be the favorite if Brady were to be ruled out ...
Hoyer’s last playoff start was terrible ... IMO the game should be a pk or Jags favored ...
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Last year Brady threw for his AFC- champ-game career high 384 yards and 3 TDs ... But these games tend not to be his biggest stat-line performances.
Here's how he did in the others:
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Ian Rapoport ...
"Two tidbits from Patriots QB Tom Brady’s thumb injury: 1. It was gushing blood when it happened. 2. He was “zinging it pretty good today,” source said"
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This is the first time in Brady's postseason career that he's been officially listed as questionable for a playoff game.
He's been listed as probable 17 previous times in the playoffs, going 11-6 in those games.
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Michael Felger (NBC Sports Boston) on Brady injury:
“No fracture. No ligament. Just a cut from hitting the buckle on someone’s helmet. Four stitches around the knuckle, should not affect him"
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Caesars Palace ...
Patriots -7.5 (even) ... O/U 45
60% of the point spread money is on Jacksonville
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In low-total games (<40 points) where wind is a non-factor (<5 mph) the OVER is 161-112-4 (59.0%) since 2003 including the playoffs
Total for MIN vs PHI is 39, and the forecast calls for average wind speeds of 3 mph
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AFC Title Game strength on strength matchup ...
Patriots 5th best red zone defense vs. Jaguars top red zone offense (scored TDs on 68% of possessions)
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Underdogs are 90-66-4 ATS when Ed Hochuli is the ref
He is the crew chief for MIN vs PHI
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Since 1977 home teams are 28-12 in AFC Championship Games ... NFC home teams are 27-13
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The spread has settled at Patriots -7.5 at all 13 Vegas books on Don Best Sports odds screen
All are -110 both ways, except -7.5 -105 /+7.5 -115 at MGM Race And Sports and Boyd Gaming
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Since 2003, when the line moves against a favorite in the playoffs, like the Patriots -9.5 to -7.5 ... teams are 11-29-2 (27.5%) ATS
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Favorites of 7 or more points, again like the Patriots, are 2-12 ATS in the playoffs when the line moves against them
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CG Technology ... on JAX-NE
Patriots open -9, got to -7 Friday on Brady injury news. Now. 7.5. On pointspread betting
"2.5X more Jacksonville money on account, 1.5X more New England money over the counter. Sharps on Jags, public on Pats."
On moneyline, "6X more Jacksonville money on account." Over-the-counter moneyline betting is split"
Total opened 46.5, dipped to 45, now 46
"2X more over money on account, 2.5X more under money over the counter. Sharps on over, public on under."
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Top Bet Sports ... on JAX-NE
Opened Patriots -9.5, hit 7.5 Friday, still there now.
Sharp play Wednesday started downward trend, then moved with market to -8 early Friday. Then -7.5 that afternoon.
"The big question is how serious is Tom Brady's hand injury? The Patriots are pretty good at covering stuff up, so we will likely never know how serious it is until game time."
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William Hill on interesting situation with JAX-NE
Opened Pats -9. "We got bet down to 7, we’re back to 7.5. We’re high on New England because we took a big bet on the Patriots – six figures."
"But we’re also still high on Jacksonville moneyline. Everyone knows Brady is playing. He’s played through worse than this. You either like Jacksonville or you don’t.”
"I think the sharp side is still Jacksonville. New England by 1 to 6 points will be just perfect."
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Bookmaker ... on JAX-NE
Pats open -8, quickly shoot to 9, dropped to 7 on Brady news, now 7.5.
"All of the early action was on New England, and almost everything since the injury news broke has been on the Jags.”
“Once the hand injury became public, we were taking pretty steady action on JAX, so we pulled it and adjusted down to -7. The total plummeted to as low as 44.5, with bettors expecting an adjusted offensive game plan."
Total now 45.5, after opening 47. "We aren't too lopsided on the side, around 60% of money on underdog, but we'll see more public money plopped down on the Patriots. If game stays under, we do have some liability there.”
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Bet The Greek ... on JAX-NE
Pats open -9, tick up to 9.5 ahead of Brady news, bottom out at 7.5, where line still is today. Mostly sharps on underdog Jags. Book needs New England at this point.
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Bet The Greek ... on MIN-PHI
Book rooting for favorite in this game too. "We need Minnesota a little." Vikes open -3.5, down to 3 Wednesday, now 3 at even money. Sharps on underdog Eagles ATS.
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