Service Plays Sunday 1/28/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler 3* Georgia Tech +3

Analysis:
G-Tech is one of those teams that it's tough to fade at home and easy to look the other way on the road. Clemson is in a tough spot here, having been humiliated and held to 36 points Tuesday at UVA. That's tough to swallow, but just as importantly is the fact that they've got a home date with North Carolina on Monday. Tech's lost three straight, but weren't totally blown out, two of them were on the road (at home to UVA) and they're home next to Syracuse, so a much better spot. GT has a significant length advantage here which is THIS matchup is big, since Clemson wants to play offense inside the arc. Tech ALSO wants to play inside the are, and they spend a TON of time at the line, and as we know froèm experience it's often the home team getting an extra call. In Conference play Tech's defense has actually been better than Clemson's, and they turn people over at a higher rate, things we like to back. Clemson's onlyACC road win was in OT at Boston College - Tech beat Miami and Notre Dame (yes, without Colson) at home and both those teams have some similarities to Clemson in their blueprint - so here we've probably got the wrong team favored.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Boston
Oakland
Seton Hall

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chris Jordon

BIGGEST RELEASE OF THE SEASON


Double Your Wager

2,000♦

College Basketball Winner # 10 of 13


WASHINGTON HUSKIES in their Pac 12 clash against the Washington State Cougars. As I release this play at 1 am pacific, the number I see on this game is Washington -7.

[bmd1803]

Mario Rojas (CandelaDeportiva) 1-28-18 (Night Games)

(# 845) Connecticut vs Temple Conneticut +6) *1500
(# 813) Kings vs Spurs (San Antonio -6.5 1st half) *1500
(# 841) Tulsa vs Wichita St (Wichita St -17) *1000

[Johnny Capone]

Does anyone get JR TIPPS and/ or BBC??

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

1* OKC -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob - NBA added

**Detroit (+7 ½) over CLEVELAND

Rotation #810 – 3:05 pm Pacific

For the first time all season I lost betting against the Cavaliers on Friday night, as they won by 7 as a 6 point favorite over the Pacers. I am not deterred, however, as Cleveland is just 2-10 ATS following a game in which they covered the spread (0-7 ATS favored by more than 6) and they’ve still only won 6 of 23 home games by more than 7 points this season. Cleveland is now 4-18-1 ATS at home and only 8-30-1 ATS when favored. As mentioned in previous anti-Cleveland write-ups, the Cavs are just 11-16 straight up and 4-23 ATS in the 27 games that Tristan Thompson has played and they had lost 9 consecutive games to the number before barely covering on Friday night. My ratings, using all of Cleveland’s games for the season, would favor them by just 4 ½ points this game and the Cavaliers are a worse team with Tristan Thompson (-6.1 plus-minus per 48 minutes) and Isaiah Thomas (-15.3 PM per 48) both playing. There is some variance in those plus-minus numbers but both players would still be significantly negative in plus-minus after adjusting for variance and even LeBron James has a negative plus-minus number this season (-17 points) thanks to playing minutes with Thompson (-83 plus-minus playing with Thompson) and Thomas (-77 PM in just 193 minutes). My variance-adjusted, player-specific ratings with current rotations for both teams favor Cleveland by just 2 points in this game and I’ll take Detroit in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and for 1-Star down to +6.

***SAN ANTONIO (-11) over Sacramento

Rotation #814 – 4:05 pm Pacific

Willie Cauley-Stein is out for Sacramento and that is going to have a significant affect. It’s not that Cauley-Stein is great, but he’s much better than the big men that are going to take his minutes, which will mostly be crusty veteran Zach Randolph, who can’t jump, and Kosta Koufos. The Kings have been outscored by 389 points in 1755.7 minutes this season when either of those two are on the court (-10.6 points per 48 minutes) and there will probably be some minutes when both are playing (when PF Labissiere, who should also get more minutes, is not on the floor), which is even worse given the -87 points in plus-minus in just 84.4 minutes this season when Randolph and Koufos have been on the court together. I already have the Kings rated worse than their season rating with effective backup PG Frank Mason out and the Kings are just 9-15 ATS this season when Mason has played fewer than 10 minutes and now they’ll be even worse. Sacramento is just 14-24-3 ATS this season when either Randolph or Koufos play, including 1-7 ATS with out, and tonight those two useless big men will probably get more combined minutes than usual.

Sacramento has won two games in a row (one with Koufos and Randolph both not playing) but the Kings are 0-6 ATS after their previous 6 winning streaks, losing those games by an average of 18.2 points, so I’m not too concerned about their recent good play and coach Popovich can use their win at Miami to help motivate his team not to look past this game. An ugly 78-97 home loss to Philly can also serve as motivation and if the Spurs are motivated at all then they’ll kill the Kings tonight. Sacramento is just 4-18 ATS since 2017 if their opponent is coming off a double-digit loss and the Spurs are a profitable 234-188-11 ATS after a loss going back to 2002-03, including 10-6-1 ATS this season. The Spurs are particularly good after a loss when facing a bad team, as they’ve gone 70-36-4 ATS laying 9 points or more after a loss (2-0 this year).

While those trends are supportive of this play the reason for this play is strictly line value. My ratings would favor the Spurs by 13 points in this game using all games this season for both teams and Sacramento has been worse without Mason and they are worse without Cauley-Stein because of the players likely to take his minutes. I favor the Spurs by 16 points in this game and I’ll take San Antonio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 or less and for 2-Stars up to -13.

[bmd1803]

Mario Rojas (CandelaDeportiva) 1-28-18 (Night Games)

(# 845) Connecticut vs Temple Conneticut +6) *1500
(# 813) Kings vs Spurs (San Antonio -6.5 1st half) *1500
(# 841) Tulsa vs Wichita St (Wichita St -17) *1000

Add

Take Clemson -1.5 1st half *1000

[Johnny Capone]

Add

Take Clemson -1.5 1st half *1000

And GA TECH for game?