Service Plays Thursday 2/15/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

**7-UNIT THURSDAY UNDER 138 PENNST/OHIO ST

Indian Cowboy
7-Unit Play. #529. Take Under 138 Ohio State vs. Penn State (Thursday @ 8pm est)


We roll with the Under here as 161 points were scored the last time these two teams met in a 81-79 thriller in Ohio State which saw Penn State hang on and win a monumental game. Now, Ohio State looks for revenge on the road as this is a team that just went on the road to beat Purdue but somehow finds itself as a +1 dog coming into this game despite having revenge and a top 10 team at that. Ohio State does have Michigan on deck which is why the line is the way it is. This is a Ohio State team that is top 15 in defense, is angry about that loss earlier to Penn State, held Purdue who is an elite offense to just 63 points on the road so they can definitely get the job done against Penn State and Penn State is a top 25 defense who when at home has done a great job on the defensive end. This pace will be one of a much slower effect than what we saw at Ohio State and State will be far more deliberate in how they approach this game. Look for this game to go under the posted total this evening as we aim for +$6500 on the year and move to 10-4 for +$3100 alone in the month of February.

[Wellngood76]

Ferrall (top 5 only, both m/l and ats unless listred)
Purd
ASU
St. Mary
Ohio St
Hous (ats)

[Wellngood76]

Ferrall
Bucks
Lakers (ats)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Benjamin Banker
2/15/2018

Game: Lakers/Timberwolves

Pick: Timberwolves -10 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob - NBA

**Denver (+3/+2.5*) over MILWAUKEE

Rotation #501 – 5:05 pm Pacific

The absence of John Henson is not being fully reflected in the spread on this game, as the Bucks are significantly worse when he’s not on the floor this season, and Denver is an improved team after finally getting rid of Emmanuel Mudiay and picking up Devin Harris from the Mavericks.

Let’s start with Milwaukee without Henson. Obviously, Giannis Antetokounmpo is the star of the Bucks and he has a very good plus-minus of +176 points in the 1922.8 minutes he’s been on the court this season (+4.4 points per 48 minutes). However, the Greek Freak has a -22 plus-minus in 843.0 minutes when he’s on the court this season without Henson, who actually leads the Bucks in plus-minus at +176 points in 1317.4 minutes (+6.4 points per 48 minutes). I rate the bucks as a below average team without Henson and their recent good form since firing Jason Kidd has more to do with luck than an actual change in level of play, as the 28.3% on 3-point shots allowed in those 11 games is mostly due to variance, as the best perimeter defensive teams in the league tend to allow around 33% from long range. I do think the Bucks are probably a bit better under their new coach but they are still worse than average without Henson playing tonight.

Denver, meanwhile, is improved now that Mudiay’s bad play is no longer dragging down the team. Denver has been outscored by 131 points in 751.6 minutes this season with Mudiay on the court and the Nuggets have outscored teams by 180 points in 1999.4 minutes (+4.3 points per 48 minutes) when Mudiay is not in the game. Even after adjusting for variance, that is an instant improvement of 3 points. Adding Harris was a great move, as Harris is a very effective player that had a +115 plus-minus for Dallas this season (on a team that is -137 overall) and is already +15 in plus-minus in just 42.2 minutes over 2 games with Denver – both spread wins.

I make this game a pick with current rotations and I’ll take Denver in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star down to +2