Service Plays Monday 2/26/18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fast Eddie from Banker Sports

BROOKLYN -5

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Larry ness
lock
jazz
texas

strong top
texas tech
orlando

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Millionaires club
strong
duke

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Sports bank
strong
lakers

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The coach
strong
elon

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Windy city
texas tech +7.5

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Jr tipps bbc
Take Over 221 LAL/Atl
Take Over 228 GSt/NYK
Take Over team total GSt
Take Over team total NYK

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr. Bob - NBA

**TORONTO (-10) over Detroit

Rotation #702 – 4:35 pm Pacific

The Pistons are now 1-9 ATS since trading for overrated star Blake Griffin after getting destroyed by Charlotte yesterday (down by 30 points before starters were pulled), As I mentioned yesterday, Griffin is not really the problem, although he doesn’t add much either, but giving up what the Pistons gave up to get him has been an issue. The backups have been dreadful, as depth became an issue when two starters were traded away to get Griffin and with another starter, PG Reggie Jackson out indefinitely. Picking up veteran PG Jameer Nelson and F James Ennis has made things worse, as it has pushed young G Langston Galloway out of the rotation. Galloway leads Detroit in plus-minus per 48 minutes (+66 points in 700.7 minutes) and most of his 12 minutes yesterday were in garbage-time. The Pistons have been outscored by 64 points in just 113.7 minutes (all in the last 5 games) when either Nelson or Ennis is in the game and while there is certainly variance in that extremely negative number, it is clear that reducing Galloway’s minutes has made the Pistons worse.

My ratings would favor Toronto by 12 points using all games for both teams and Detroit is clearly worse now than their season rating. The Raptors have won more than half of their home games by 12 points or more and tonight they’re hosting a team that is clearly below average and unrested after playing yesterday. Toronto is likely to win this game by 12 points or more and I’d favor the Raptors by 14 ½ points based on current rotations. The Raptors bench is very good and they should dominate the Pistons’ second unit. I’ll take Toronto in a 2-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 1-Star up to -12 points.

*BROOKLYN (-5) over Chicago

Rotation #704 – 4:35 pm Pacific

Chicago is sabotaging their season by starting Cristiano Felicio the last two games, as the Bulls are horrendous when Felicio plays. I played on the Bulls often after Nikola Mirotic was healthy enough to play because it meant that Felicio would be relegated to the end of the bench. With Mirotic gone and the Bulls saying they’re going to give their younger players more minutes to see what they’ve got, the Bulls are now the worst team in the league. Chicago has been outscored by 214 points in just 438.25 minutes this season (-23.4 points per 48 minutes) when Felicio has been on the court this season and he has started the last two games and played 30.7 minutes in Saturday’s 18 point loss to Minnesota, who was playing without their most important player, Jimmy Butler. Brooklyn is getting some key pieces back tonight with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson expected to play and the team has apparently seen enough of Jahlil Okafor to determine that he sucks (as I already knew based on his career plus-minus numbers being the worst on his team every year he’s been in the league). The Nets were outscored by 23.9 points per 48 minutes with Okafor playing (-141 points in just 283.4 minutes) and having him at the end of the bench should result in a positive surge for the Nets, who were covering the spread in most games with Hollis-Jefferson playing and Okafor not playing. I favor Brooklyn by 7 ½ points in this game and I’ll take the Nets in a 1-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less.

**Orlando (+10.5) over OKLAHOMA CITY

Rotation #713 – 5:05 pm Pacific

Oklahoma City has been overrated all season and the Thunder now just 10-12 straight up and 7-15 ATS without defensive star Andre Roberson this season (9-11 SU and 6-14 ATS with Westbrook playing). That’s not a fluke, as it is actually Roberson and not Westbrook that leads the Thunder in plus-minus per 48 minutes (+8.7 points for Roberson and +5.8 for Westbrook). Westbrook’s PM per 48 is +9.6 points when Roberson was on the court with him and is only +2.8 points per 48 minutes when Roberson is on the bench (with a sample size of 1175 minutes). OKC is outscored by 5.9 points per 48 minutes this season when Westbrook and Roberson are both off the court, which is a problem when Westbrook takes a breather. Paul George is not the answer, as the Thunder have been outscored by 117 points in 386.4 minutes this season when George is on the court without Westbrook and Roberson.

OKC still tends to play pretty well on most occasions against other good teams, as Russell Westbrook tends to raise his level of intensity in those contests, but the Thunder are just 2-17 ATS in their last 19 games laying 6 points or more (0-7 ATS without Roberson) and Orlando tends to play relatively better against better teams. In fact, the Magic are 11-4 ATS this season as an underdog of more than 8 points and just 3-8 ATS when favored. Orlando is actually 28-9 ATS as a double-digit road underdog the last 4 seasons and having Nikola Vucevic back in the lineup is a positive, as it takes away minutes from Bismack Beyombo, who has a team worst plus-minus per 48 minutes of -12.8 points (-303 points in 1139 minutes). Vucevic, by contrast, has a PM of just -2 points in 1073.2 minutes this season, which is very good considering Orlando’s overall points per 48 minutes of -4.4 points (-7.0 points per 48 when Vucevic is not in the game).

My ratings, based on current rotations, favor Oklahoma City by just 7 ½ points and I’ll take Orlando in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.

**SACRAMENTO (+5.5) over Minnesota

Rotation #720 – 7:05 pm Pacific

Minnesota is not a good team when Jimmy Butler is not on the court. It’s not surprising that Butler leads the Timberwolves in plus-minus per 48 minutes at +8.0 (+347 points in 2076.7 minutes) but his impact is not being fully reflected by the market and the Kings should be better than their season rating with PG Frank Mason back in the rotation.

Minnesota’s top 3 players in minutes played are Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns and Butler. When those 3 are on the court at the same time the Timberwolves have outscored opponents by 308 points in 1460.3 minutes, which is a very good 10.1 points per 48 minutes. However, Wiggins and Towns on the court without Butler have been outscored by 35 points in just 247.2 minutes this season (-6.8 points per 48 minutes) and Wiggins by himself or Towns by himself without the other two are a combined -89 points in 530.5 minutes (-8.1 points per 48). Minnesota managed to beat up on Chicago Saturday night because the Bulls have sabotaged themselves by playing a lineup that is destined to lose big in most games (Felicio played 31 minutes and the Bulls have been outscored by 23.4 points per 48 minutes this season when he’s been on the court) but the T-Wolves are just 2-4 ATS in the other 6 games that Butler has missed this season. My player-specific ratings have the Timberwolves rated as 2.2 points worse than average and they have an average game rating of -2.3 points in the 7 games that Butler has missed.

Sacramento, meanwhile, rates a bit better than their season rating with Mason back leading the second unit. Sacramento has been outscored by 466 points this season (-7.9 per 48 minutes) but the Kings have only been outscored by 5 points in 567.2 minutes this season with Mason on the court and they were mostly horrible when he was out with injury. Having PF Skal Labissiere back from injury also helps the Kings, as it reduces the minutes played by useless big men Zach Randolph and Kosta Koufos. My player-specific ratings, based on the current rotation, projects the Kings at 5.2 points worse than an average team and they have an average game rating of -5.3 points when Mason is in the rotation. My ratings favor Minnesota by just 1 ½ points in this game and I’ll take Sacramento in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 1-Star down to +4 points.

[batjag]

Marco 4% Texas +11