-
Xavier is the best bet in the NCAA tournament in the odds shark database ... 76.5% since 1996
Straight Up: 21-15
Against The Spread: 26-8-2
OVER/UNDER: 18-18
-
LV SuperBook took 5 bets on Virginia when the Cavaliers were 100/1 to win the national championship in the preseason.
-
-
-
-
-
Derek Stevens ... Owner of The D Casino in Vegas
At South Point he placed $11,000 EACH on ...
Radford -3
NC Central +6
SD State +4
Loyola +2.5
Arizona -8
Alabama +2.5
Davidson +5.5
K State +2.5
Purdue -20
Duke -19
Virginia -22
Butler -1
Missouri pk
Syracuse +1
Cincy -15.5
Mich St -13
Lipscomb +19.5
NC St +2
Murray St +10
At Golden Nugget he placed $11,000 EACH on ...
UCLA -3.5
Michigan -11
Wright St +13.5
Providence +4
Stephen FA +11
Penn +15
Gonzaga -12
Arizona -8
S Dakota +8
Texas +1.5
Rhode Island pk
Loyola +2.5
Clemson -4.5
Marshall +12
Kentucky -5.5
Charleston +10.5
-
Nevada Gaming Control ...
Nevada sportsbooks won $41.27 million on basketball (NBA/NCAA) in March 2017, the most lucrative basketball month ever for the books
-
Among the seeds that have reached the Final Four at least once, no seed is experiencing a bigger drought than the No. 6. Only three 6-seeds have made it to the Final Four, but it has been 26 years since the last time it happened (Providence in 1987, Kansas in 1988 and Michigan in 1992).
From 1985 to 2013, neither a No. 7 nor a No. 10 seed made a Final Four appearance. But in the past four tournaments, we've seen three 7s (UConn in 2014, Michigan State in 2015 and South Carolina in 2017) and a 10 (Syracuse in 2016) get there. UConn became the first No. 7 seed to win the title, while Syracuse became the first No. 10 seed to reach the Final Four.
Since 1979, six No. 8 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. Those teams are actually 4-2 in the national semifinals, but the lone 8-seed to win the title is Villanova in 1985.
Since 1985, three No. 11 seeds have reached the Final Four (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011), which is as many as or more than Nos. 6, 7, 9 and 10 seeds.
-
• No team has ever won a national championship after losing its first game in the conference tournament. Last year, six teams that landed top-four seeds -- including Kansas (1) and Louisville (2) -- were bounced right off in the bat in their conference tourney, and none of them advanced past the Elite Eight. This year, Auburn is the only top-four seed that needs to be concerned about this curse. Ohio State (5), Florida (6), Miami (6) and TCU (6) are the only others better than a No. 7.
• Upsets may grab the headlines this month, but when it comes to winning championships, you have to look out for No. 1. In the 33 years since the field expanded, No. 1 seeds have accounted for 20 championships, including eight of the past 11. No other seed has more than five titles, and the top three seeds have combined for 29 of the 33 championships.
• We're still waiting for the first No. 5-seeded champion, although three 5-seeds have reached the championship game (Florida in 2000, Indiana in 2002 and Butler in 2010). There have been teams seeded sixth (NC State, 1983; Kansas, 1988), seventh (UConn, 2014) and eighth (Villanova, 1985) to win it all, however.
-
Records for seeds since the tourney went to 64 or more teams.
#1-#16 (132-0, 100%)
#2-#15 (124-8, 93.9%)
#3-#14 (111-21, 84.1%)
#4-#13 (106-26, 80.3%)
#5-#12 (85-47, 64.4% )
#6-#11 (83-49, 62.9%)
#7-#10 (81-51, 61.4%)
#8-#9 (68-64, 51.5% )
-
Virginia has been picked as the National Champion in 27% of brackets filled out at ESPN so far.
You should be looking to fade the public if you're in a larger bracket pool.
-
Since 2009, teams favored by 6 points or more in the 1st round won 88% of games.
There’s currently 17 games with spreads of 6 or more.
-
10,000 NCAA Tournament Simulations Reveal Most Likely Champions
After 10,000 simulations, Virginia is the most likely champion. Tony Bennett’s team has a 44.1% chance to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1984 and wins the national championship 18.9% of the time.
The other contenders with legitimate chances of winning are Villanova (17.1%), Duke (11.6%), Cincinnati (8.5%), Purdue (6.2%), Michigan State (6.1%) and North Carolina (5.4%).
The most likely Final Four consists of No. 1 Virginia, No. 1 Villanova, No. 2 Duke and No. 2 North Carolina. The Wildcats, Blue Devils and Tar Heels have all reached the final weekend at least once in the last three tournaments, with UNC trying for a third consecutive Final Four.
The tournament is projected to be chalky. The 13 most likely Final Four participants are seeded 1-4, with those seeded 1-2 wining it all 73.8% of the time.
This doesn’t mean there won’t be upsets. In the play-in games and first round, there are 10 games in which the higher-seeded team wins 60% of the time or less, making for potential upsets.
South Region
Virginia, led by Kyle Guy and Devon Hall (pictured above), is a No. 1 seed for the third time in five years. The Cavaliers earned the top overall seed by playing the best defense in the country (53.4 ppg allowed). However, UVA isn’t the only team in this region that brings it on that end of the court. Cincinnati, Tennessee and Texas also rank in the top 10 in the nation in defensive efficiency.
•Most Likely Final Four team: Virginia (44.1%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Kentucky (6.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Loyola Chicago (18.4% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Nevada over No. 10 Texas (50.0%)
West Region
Xavier is the weakest No. 1 seed in the bracket, ranking 14th overall according to KenPom. The Musketeers got a tough draw with North Carolina, Gonzaga and Michigan ranking in the top 10 in adjusted efficiency. The West is wide open, with these four teams each having double-digit percentage chances to win the region.
•Most Likely Final Four team: North Carolina (25.3%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Ohio State (8.7%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): San Diego State (12.2% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 8 Missouri over No. 9 Florida State (50.0%)
East Region
The simulation likes Virginia, but the oddsmakers favor Villanova. The Wildcats are 7-2 favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. What do the Bookmakers like about Jay Wright’s team? Few teams in the tournament can match the potential NBA talent that Nova boasts in Mikal Bridges, Jalen Brunson, Omari Spellman and Donte DiVincenzo.
•Most Likely Final Four team: Villanova (44.9%)
•Final Four Sleeper: West Virginia (8.0%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): Butler (16.8% to make Sweet 16)
•Closes First-Round Game: No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Arkansas (53.1%)
Midwest Region
The blue bloods of college basketball (Kansas, Duke and Michigan State) will battle it out in the Midwest. The Jayhawks (Devonte’ Graham), Blue Devils (Marvin Bagley) and Spartans (Miles Bridges) are led by Wooden Award candidates, meaning each team has enough talent to not only win the region, but to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
•Most Likely Final Four team: Duke (36.0%)
•Final Four Sleeper: Clemson (5.8%)
•Cinderella (double-digit seeds going deep): New Mexico State (13.3% to make Sweet 16)
•Closest First-Round Game: No. 7 Rhode Island over No. 10 Oklahoma (50.0%)
Most likely Sweet 16 teams:
Nova 85%
Duke 83%
UVA 82%
UNC 73%
Purdue 72%
-
Butler is the second-best NCAA tourney bet in the database (since 1999).
SU: 21-12
ATS: 25-8 (75.8%)
O/U: 13-19-1
-
Here's how the No. 1 seeds have fared against the spread since 1999 in the NCAA tournament:
Kansas: 36-27-1
Villanova: 17-16
Virginia: 5-9-1
Xavier: 26-8-2
-
Only coaches in this year's field to cover less than 33% of their NCAA Tournament games:
31.6%: Rick Barnes
31.6%: Jamie Dixon
(Since 2005, min. 10 games)
-
Why Bettors Should Avoid Trendy NCAA Tournament Underdogs
With the NCAA Tournament field set, many folks likely have upsets pegged before even looking at the actual matchups. Perhaps they think they’re being original for their choices. The 12 over the 5-seed…some 10s over 7s. Your basic upsets, you know the drill.
However, when betting on spreads, you need to be very wary as far as trendy dogs are concerned. When you see a dog as cool as Scooby Doo, you may want to tread lightly…
More often than not, they’re going to disappoint more than socks on a Christmas morn.
By now, you should probably know that betting against the public is a wise choice. Especially in the NCAA Tournament, when square bettors instinctively flock to sportsbooks like the Salmon of Capistrano.
Generally speaking, the public gets down heavy on favorites. This is why you’ll often find contrarian value on the dog, but that is not always the case.
Dating back to 2005, the team getting the majority of the bets has been the favorite at close to a 3:1 ratio. Basically a quarter of the time, you’ll see a trendy dog available. Anddddd….they’ve been god awful.
Underdogs receiving the majority of bets have only covered 43.1% of the time. The first week is even worse, with trendy dogs in the First Four, round of 64, and round of 32 only covering 40.4% of the time.
One of the only instances in which they haven’t done horribly is as a double-digit dog. Trendy dogs getting 10 points or more have gone 16-15, meaning those getting 9.5 points or less have only covered at a 41.6% rate.
As of Monday morning there are 10 dogs getting at least 51% of bets and six getting at least two-thirds of spread bets. The four dogs getting between 51% and 57% (Iona, Stephen F. Austin, Syracuse, and LIU Brooklyn) will probably be getting the minority of bets by the time the games start.
The other six trendy dogs have a very good chance of staying trendy, though.
•#10 Providence (84%, +3.5) vs. #7 Texas A&M
•#13 Charleston (81%, +10.5) vs. #4 Auburn
•#12 South Dakota State (74%, +8) vs. #5 Ohio State
•#13 Marshall (74%, +12) vs. #4 Wichita State
•#15 Georgia State (73%, +14) vs. #2 Cincinnati
•#12 New Mexico State (68%, +5) vs. #5 Clemson
Fade or follow? Maybe they’re worth a shot on your bracket, but be like the wading baboon and tread lightly if you’re thinking about betting them.
-
Monday Money Burner ...
William Hill has already taken 3 bets on #16-seed North Carolina Central to win the tournament at 2,500/1 odds.
-
Monday Fun Facts ...
-An estimated 24 million people participated in an NCAA tournament pool in 2017, filling out 60 million brackets, according to a recent survey conducted by The Mellman Group
-March Madness pools, when money is involved, are illegal in 37 of 50 states, according to a legal analysis commissioned by the American Gaming Assn.
-The American Gaming Assn estimates more than $10 billion will be wagered on the NCAA tournament this year, with only 3% taking place in a legal environment.
Posting Permissions
- You may not post new threads
- You may not post replies
- You may not post attachments
- You may not edit your posts
-
Forum Rules
Reply With Quote
